NorthGeorgiaWX

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper trough over the eastern U.S. will quickly move east over the Atlantic on Day 4/Sat. Meanwhile, an upper ridge over the Rockies will spread east into the Plains, while another upper trough develops along the Pacific coast. This pattern will progress eastward through the period, with upper ridge becoming established over the eastern half of the CONUS Days 5-8/Sun-Wed. The Pacific coast upper trough will slowly develop east, spreading into the Plains by Day 8/Wed. Dry and stable conditions, courtesy of strong surface high pressure and a prior cold frontal intrusion deep into the Gulf of Mexico, will limit thunderstorm potential through at least Day 5 or 6/Sun or Mon. However, as the western upper trough approaches the Rockies and Plains, lee surface troughing will support southerly return flow across the western Gulf and Plains. Thunderstorm potential may return to parts of TX and the western Gulf coast vicinity toward the end of the period. While some severe potential could accompany this moisture return ahead of the upper trough, uncertainty in quality of low-level moisture, and timing of the eastward-advancing upper trough, remains too high to include probabilities at this time. Read more View the full article

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper trough over the eastern U.S. will quickly move east over the Atlantic on Day 4/Sat. Meanwhile, an upper ridge over the Rockies will spread east into the Plains, while another upper trough develops along the Pacific coast. This pattern will progress eastward through the period, with upper ridge becoming established over the eastern half of the CONUS Days 5-8/Sun-Wed. The Pacific coast upper trough will slowly develop east, spreading into the Plains by Day 8/Wed. Dry and stable conditions, courtesy of strong surface high pressure and a prior cold frontal intrusion deep into the Gulf of Mexico, will limit thunderstorm potential through at least Day 5 or 6/Sun or Mon. However, as the western upper trough approaches the Rockies and Plains, lee surface troughing will support southerly return flow across the western Gulf and Plains. Thunderstorm potential may return to parts of TX and the western Gulf coast vicinity toward the end of the period. While some severe potential could accompany this moisture return ahead of the upper trough, uncertainty in quality of low-level moisture, and timing of the eastward-advancing upper trough, remains too high to include probabilities at this time. Read more View the full article

Wind Chill Advisory issued January 17 at 3:06AM EST until January 17 at 10:00AM EST by NWSView the full article

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... Surface low pressure will be located over NC Friday morning. A trailing cold front will extend southwest from the low into southern GA and northern Gulf of Mexico. The front will rapidly move offshore the Southeast coast and across the FL Peninsula. While modest boundary-layer moisture will reside across the FL Peninsula, poor lapse rates and weak instability will preclude thunderstorm activity before the front moves offshore by mid afternoon. In the wake of the front, strong surface high pressure will develop over the Plains. A dry and stable airmass behind the front will limit thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 01/17/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... Surface low pressure will be located over NC Friday morning. A trailing cold front will extend southwest from the low into southern GA and northern Gulf of Mexico. The front will rapidly move offshore the Southeast coast and across the FL Peninsula. While modest boundary-layer moisture will reside across the FL Peninsula, poor lapse rates and weak instability will preclude thunderstorm activity before the front moves offshore by mid afternoon. In the wake of the front, strong surface high pressure will develop over the Plains. A dry and stable airmass behind the front will limit thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 01/17/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... Surface low pressure will be located over NC Friday morning. A trailing cold front will extend southwest from the low into southern GA and northern Gulf of Mexico. The front will rapidly move offshore the Southeast coast and across the FL Peninsula. While modest boundary-layer moisture will reside across the FL Peninsula, poor lapse rates and weak instability will preclude thunderstorm activity before the front moves offshore by mid afternoon. In the wake of the front, strong surface high pressure will develop over the Plains. A dry and stable airmass behind the front will limit thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 01/17/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... Surface low pressure will be located over NC Friday morning. A trailing cold front will extend southwest from the low into southern GA and northern Gulf of Mexico. The front will rapidly move offshore the Southeast coast and across the FL Peninsula. While modest boundary-layer moisture will reside across the FL Peninsula, poor lapse rates and weak instability will preclude thunderstorm activity before the front moves offshore by mid afternoon. In the wake of the front, strong surface high pressure will develop over the Plains. A dry and stable airmass behind the front will limit thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 01/17/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... Surface low pressure will be located over NC Friday morning. A trailing cold front will extend southwest from the low into southern GA and northern Gulf of Mexico. The front will rapidly move offshore the Southeast coast and across the FL Peninsula. While modest boundary-layer moisture will reside across the FL Peninsula, poor lapse rates and weak instability will preclude thunderstorm activity before the front moves offshore by mid afternoon. In the wake of the front, strong surface high pressure will develop over the Plains. A dry and stable airmass behind the front will limit thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 01/17/2024 Read more View the full article

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Jan 17 07:31:02 UTC 2024.View the full article

Wind Chill Advisory issued January 17 at 1:41AM EST until January 17 at 10:00AM EST by NWSView the full article

Hard Freeze Warning issued January 17 at 1:40AM EST until January 17 at 9:00AM EST by NWSView the full article

Hard Freeze Warning issued January 17 at 1:40AM EST until January 17 at 9:00AM EST by NWSView the full article

Hard Freeze Warning issued January 17 at 1:40AM EST until January 17 at 9:00AM EST by NWSView the full article

Freeze Watch issued January 17 at 1:40AM EST until January 18 at 8:00AM EST by NWSView the full article

Freeze Watch issued January 17 at 1:40AM EST until January 18 at 8:00AM EST by NWSView the full article

Hard Freeze Watch issued January 17 at 1:40AM EST until January 18 at 8:00AM EST by NWSView the full article

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave upper trough embedded within a broader trough east of the Rockies will pivot east from the southern Plains to the Carolinas on Thursday. At the surface, a weak low will move in tandem with the shortwave impulse across the Gulf coast states vicinity. A trailing cold front will sweep southeast across the Southeast during the period, extending from southern GA into the northern Gulf of Mexico by Friday morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will allow upper 50s to near 60 F dewpoints to impinge on the central Gulf coast, with somewhat higher dewpoints expected across central/southern FL. While boundary-layer moisture will be greater across the FL Peninsula, poor lapse rates and relatively warm midlevel temperatures will result in capping and limit destabilization. A few lightning flashes may occur over parts of the Peninsula, but severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/17/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave upper trough embedded within a broader trough east of the Rockies will pivot east from the southern Plains to the Carolinas on Thursday. At the surface, a weak low will move in tandem with the shortwave impulse across the Gulf coast states vicinity. A trailing cold front will sweep southeast across the Southeast during the period, extending from southern GA into the northern Gulf of Mexico by Friday morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will allow upper 50s to near 60 F dewpoints to impinge on the central Gulf coast, with somewhat higher dewpoints expected across central/southern FL. While boundary-layer moisture will be greater across the FL Peninsula, poor lapse rates and relatively warm midlevel temperatures will result in capping and limit destabilization. A few lightning flashes may occur over parts of the Peninsula, but severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/17/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave upper trough embedded within a broader trough east of the Rockies will pivot east from the southern Plains to the Carolinas on Thursday. At the surface, a weak low will move in tandem with the shortwave impulse across the Gulf coast states vicinity. A trailing cold front will sweep southeast across the Southeast during the period, extending from southern GA into the northern Gulf of Mexico by Friday morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will allow upper 50s to near 60 F dewpoints to impinge on the central Gulf coast, with somewhat higher dewpoints expected across central/southern FL. While boundary-layer moisture will be greater across the FL Peninsula, poor lapse rates and relatively warm midlevel temperatures will result in capping and limit destabilization. A few lightning flashes may occur over parts of the Peninsula, but severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/17/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave upper trough embedded within a broader trough east of the Rockies will pivot east from the southern Plains to the Carolinas on Thursday. At the surface, a weak low will move in tandem with the shortwave impulse across the Gulf coast states vicinity. A trailing cold front will sweep southeast across the Southeast during the period, extending from southern GA into the northern Gulf of Mexico by Friday morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will allow upper 50s to near 60 F dewpoints to impinge on the central Gulf coast, with somewhat higher dewpoints expected across central/southern FL. While boundary-layer moisture will be greater across the FL Peninsula, poor lapse rates and relatively warm midlevel temperatures will result in capping and limit destabilization. A few lightning flashes may occur over parts of the Peninsula, but severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/17/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A belt of strong deep-layer west-northwesterly flow will persist across the central/southern Rockies on D2/Thursday, favoring lee troughing over the adjacent High Plains. Along/south of the lee trough, a modest pressure gradient and boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will yield two corridors of strong/gusty surface winds. The northern corridor will extend from east-central NM into the western portion of the TX South Plains, though RH reductions will be marginal here (i.e., 20-25 percent). Farther south, a second belt of sustained westerly surface winds near 20 mph (with higher gusts) is expected across the TX Trans-Pecos region. Here, warmer surface temperatures will support 15-20 percent RH, and with slightly more receptive fuels, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. With that said, the overall threat appears too localized for Elevated highlights given modestly receptive fuels at best. ..Weinman.. 01/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough accompanied by strong westerly flow aloft will impinge on the central Rockies during the day, promoting a deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains. Along and south of this feature, 15-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will develop across much of the southern High Plains during the afternoon. Here, strengthening downslope flow will contribute to 15-25 percent minimum RH, though RH reductions should be marginal where the strongest surface winds are expected (i.e., east-central NM into the western TX Panhandle and in the immediate lee of the high terrain in eastern NM). While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible across the region, the limited wind/RH overlap and marginal fuels preclude Elevated highlights. ..Weinman.. 01/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... In the wake of a cold front passage across south FL and the Keys, a stout surface anticyclone, embedded with a pervasive continental polar air mass, will shift from south-central TX across the Southeast to off the Carolina coast through 12Z Thursday. The lack of appreciable buoyancy across the CONUS suggests that thunderstorm potential will remain negligible through the period. ..Grams/Weinman.. 01/17/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... In the wake of a cold front passage across south FL and the Keys, a stout surface anticyclone, embedded with a pervasive continental polar air mass, will shift from south-central TX across the Southeast to off the Carolina coast through 12Z Thursday. The lack of appreciable buoyancy across the CONUS suggests that thunderstorm potential will remain negligible through the period. ..Grams/Weinman.. 01/17/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... In the wake of a cold front passage across south FL and the Keys, a stout surface anticyclone, embedded with a pervasive continental polar air mass, will shift from south-central TX across the Southeast to off the Carolina coast through 12Z Thursday. The lack of appreciable buoyancy across the CONUS suggests that thunderstorm potential will remain negligible through the period. ..Grams/Weinman.. 01/17/2024 Read more View the full article