NorthGeorgiaWX

Winter Storm Warning issued January 15 at 7:52PM EST until January 16 at 7:00AM EST by NWSView the full article

Winter Weather Advisory issued January 15 at 7:52PM EST until January 16 at 10:00AM EST by NWSView the full article

Winter Weather Advisory issued January 15 at 7:52PM EST until January 16 at 12:00PM EST by NWSView the full article

Wind Chill Advisory issued January 15 at 7:52PM EST until January 17 at 10:00AM EST by NWSView the full article

Wind Chill Advisory issued January 15 at 7:52PM EST until January 17 at 10:00AM EST by NWSView the full article

Wind Chill Advisory issued January 15 at 7:52PM EST until January 17 at 10:00AM EST by NWSView the full article

Wind Chill Advisory issued January 15 at 7:52PM EST until January 17 at 10:00AM EST by NWSView the full article

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...FL... The pair of supercells which produced a pair of reported tornadoes along the Atlantic Coast east of Lake Okeechobee earlier has become confined offshore. An upstream storm cluster between Lake Okeechobee and Fort Myers has slowly been progressing east. This activity will probably slowly decay through the rest of the evening as afternoon guidance indicates weakening low-level convergence along the mesoscale outflow boundary. Convergence will become more focused farther north across the northeast Gulf into north FL during the early morning. This should support isolated elevated thunderstorms spreading inland between 08-12Z. Strong deep-layer shear may yield mid-level updraft rotation. However, weak mid-level lapse rates coupled with near-surface stability suggests severe potential should be negligible through 12Z. ..Grams.. 01/16/2024 Read more View the full article

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Jan 16 00:01:01 UTC 2024.View the full article

MD 0070 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA Mesoscale Discussion 0070 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Areas affected...Eastern Florida Peninsula Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 152256Z - 160000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A localized threat for a brief tornado is expected to continue in the short-term. Any threat should remain too marginal for weather watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Latest high-resolution radar imagery shows a supercell ongoing in Martin County, Florida. WSR-88D VWPs along the Florida east coast suggest veering winds with height in the lowest 2 km above ground level, with some speed shear in the low to mid-levels. Low-level shear may also be strengthened by frictional effects associated with the coastal vicinity. In addition, the storm is located near a boundary helping to increase low-level convergence. The cell will continue to approach the coast over the next half hour. Additional cells may develop, and could be associated with an isolated/brief tornado threat due to the localized enhancement of low-level shear. However, any threat is expected to remain marginal, and not sufficient for tornado watch issuance. ..Broyles/Goss.. 01/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MLB... LAT...LON 27078008 26998037 26988054 27058069 27188073 27318069 27408059 27458036 27478017 27378005 27168003 27078008 Read more View the full article

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z A progressive upper pattern is expected through the week into early next week, with multiple mid-level troughs poised to traverse the CONUS up to the weekend. The progressing mid-level troughs will reinforce surface high pressure and an accompanying arctic airmass, limiting wildfire-spread potential over most locales. Guidance consistency continues to show surface low development over the southern High Plains on Wednesday in advance of one of the upper troughs. Here, downslope flow will encourage some dry/breezy conditions, but the lack of fuel receptiveness suggests that Critical probabilities are not currently warranted. By the weekend, upper-ridging will overspread the central CONUS before another mid-level trough ejects into the Plains states. While surface temperatures might rise above the freezing mark across the southern Plains by early next week, low-level moisture will also increase, keeping wildfire-spread concerns at a minimum. ..Squitieri.. 01/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z A progressive upper pattern is expected through the week into early next week, with multiple mid-level troughs poised to traverse the CONUS up to the weekend. The progressing mid-level troughs will reinforce surface high pressure and an accompanying arctic airmass, limiting wildfire-spread potential over most locales. Guidance consistency continues to show surface low development over the southern High Plains on Wednesday in advance of one of the upper troughs. Here, downslope flow will encourage some dry/breezy conditions, but the lack of fuel receptiveness suggests that Critical probabilities are not currently warranted. By the weekend, upper-ridging will overspread the central CONUS before another mid-level trough ejects into the Plains states. While surface temperatures might rise above the freezing mark across the southern Plains by early next week, low-level moisture will also increase, keeping wildfire-spread concerns at a minimum. ..Squitieri.. 01/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

Hard Freeze Watch issued January 15 at 2:58PM EST until January 17 at 9:00AM EST by NWSView the full article

Hard Freeze Watch issued January 15 at 2:58PM EST until January 17 at 9:00AM EST by NWSView the full article

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...20Z Update... No appreciable changes have been made to the prior forecast. ..Gleason.. 01/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2024/ ...Central FL this afternoon... Cyclonic flow aloft will persist over the CONUS from the Rockies eastward, with ridging over the Pacific coast. One embedded speed maxima will progress east-northeastward from the Mid-South to the Mid-Atlantic, in advance of an upstream wave moving from the central High Plains/Rockies to the mid MS/lower OH Valleys. The majority of the CONUS will be relatively cold/dry, with the only buoyant warm sector confined to the FL peninsula (and just off the southeast Atlantic coast tonight). The ongoing convection between Fort Meyers and Sarasota could persist through the afternoon while spreading east-northeastward along the warm front. There will be sufficient vertical shear/hodograph length for a weakly rotating storm within the cluster, but poor midlevel lapse rates and modest low-level flow/shear suggest that severe storms are unlikely. Read more View the full article

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...20Z Update... No appreciable changes have been made to the prior forecast. ..Gleason.. 01/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2024/ ...Central FL this afternoon... Cyclonic flow aloft will persist over the CONUS from the Rockies eastward, with ridging over the Pacific coast. One embedded speed maxima will progress east-northeastward from the Mid-South to the Mid-Atlantic, in advance of an upstream wave moving from the central High Plains/Rockies to the mid MS/lower OH Valleys. The majority of the CONUS will be relatively cold/dry, with the only buoyant warm sector confined to the FL peninsula (and just off the southeast Atlantic coast tonight). The ongoing convection between Fort Meyers and Sarasota could persist through the afternoon while spreading east-northeastward along the warm front. There will be sufficient vertical shear/hodograph length for a weakly rotating storm within the cluster, but poor midlevel lapse rates and modest low-level flow/shear suggest that severe storms are unlikely. Read more View the full article

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...20Z Update... No appreciable changes have been made to the prior forecast. ..Gleason.. 01/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2024/ ...Central FL this afternoon... Cyclonic flow aloft will persist over the CONUS from the Rockies eastward, with ridging over the Pacific coast. One embedded speed maxima will progress east-northeastward from the Mid-South to the Mid-Atlantic, in advance of an upstream wave moving from the central High Plains/Rockies to the mid MS/lower OH Valleys. The majority of the CONUS will be relatively cold/dry, with the only buoyant warm sector confined to the FL peninsula (and just off the southeast Atlantic coast tonight). The ongoing convection between Fort Meyers and Sarasota could persist through the afternoon while spreading east-northeastward along the warm front. There will be sufficient vertical shear/hodograph length for a weakly rotating storm within the cluster, but poor midlevel lapse rates and modest low-level flow/shear suggest that severe storms are unlikely. Read more View the full article

Winter Storm Warning issued January 15 at 2:26PM EST until January 16 at 7:00AM EST by NWSView the full article

Winter Weather Advisory issued January 15 at 2:26PM EST until January 16 at 10:00AM EST by NWSView the full article

Winter Weather Advisory issued January 15 at 2:26PM EST until January 16 at 12:00PM EST by NWSView the full article

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 01/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1049 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... Similar to D1/Monday, cold surface temperatures accompanying an expansive arctic air mass will limit fire-weather concerns across the CONUS on D2/Tuesday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 01/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1049 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... Similar to D1/Monday, cold surface temperatures accompanying an expansive arctic air mass will limit fire-weather concerns across the CONUS on D2/Tuesday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

Hard Freeze Watch issued January 15 at 1:58PM EST until January 17 at 9:00AM EST by NWSView the full article

MD 0069 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PARTS OF MIDDLE AND EASTERN TENNESSEE Mesoscale Discussion 0069 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Areas affected...parts of middle and eastern Tennessee Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 151750Z - 152045Z SUMMARY...An area of heavier snow rates, occasionally approaching 1 inch per hour, may be maintained east-northeastward across portions of middle and eastern Tennessee through 2-4 PM CST, before gradually diminishing through early evening. DISCUSSION...A mid-level speed maximum propagating across northern Mississippi is forecast to reach the Cumberland Plateau by early evening. This still appears associated with an area of enhanced mid/upper forcing for ascent, which might be maintained through the 20-22Z time frame while overspreading portions of middle through eastern Tennessee. Thereafter, frontogenetic forcing is forecast to generally weaken across the Tennessee Valley through southern Appalachians vicinity, yielding diminishing precipitation rates. Until then, it appears that the area of enhanced lift will include upward vertical motion maximized within the favorably cold mid-level layer (centered around or above 600 mb) for large dendritic ice crystal growth. It appears this may remain strong enough to support continuing potential for occasional heavy snow rates up to around 1 inch per hour, where lower/mid tropospheric profiles are maintained at or below freezing (roughly north of the 0 C isotherm at 859 mb). ..Kerr.. 01/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...HUN... LAT...LON 34978743 35118584 35718402 36408364 36298463 36048579 35848708 34978743 Read more View the full article

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Tuesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large upper cyclone will encompass much of the central/eastern CONUS and Canada on Tuesday. Thunderstorm potential will remain limited to locations along/south of a front forecast to be in place over the FL Peninsula, where greater low-level moisture will reside. As the upper trough progresses eastward through the day, a weak surface reflection should develop from the northeastern Gulf of Mexico to the coastal western Atlantic. The cold front should also move southeastward across the FL Peninsula through the period. Strong (50-60 kt) mid-level west-southwesterly flow associated with the upper cyclone will be present over much of FL. Similar values of deep-layer shear would typically support organized severe thunderstorm potential. However, in this case forecast thermodynamic profiles across central/south FL will likely hinder updraft intensity, as poor mid-level lapse rates and warm temperatures aloft limit the degree of instability that can develop. In addition, enhanced low/mid-level flow will be largely parallel to the surface front, limiting low-level convergence/ascent. While there may be some potential for strong/gusty winds with any convection that develops and can remain south of the front, the undercutting nature of the boundary suggests that overall severe potential will probably remain too low/sparse for highlights. ..Gleason.. 01/15/2024 Read more View the full article