NorthGeorgiaWX

Wind Chill Advisory issued January 16 at 3:43AM EST until January 17 at 10:00AM EST by NWSView the full article

MD 0072 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHERN MS INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AL AND A SMALL PART OF NORTHWEST GA Mesoscale Discussion 0072 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Areas affected...Southern MS into central/southern AL and a small part of northwest GA Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 160832Z - 161330Z SUMMARY...Winter precipitation will shift eastward early this morning. Embedded heavier showers of sleet or freezing rain will be possible. DISCUSSION...Early this morning, a broad area of post-frontal precipitation is ongoing from southern MS into central AL. This area of precipitation will continue to spread eastward this morning in conjunction with the front and a weak eastward-moving frontal wave across the northeast Gulf of Mexico. Weak but nonzero MUCAPE (as noted in the 06Z BMX sounding) will continue to support fast-moving showers with briefly moderate precip rates embedded in the broader light precipitation shield. A substantial warm nose aloft (also noted on the 06Z BMX sounding) atop a shallow subfreezing layer at the surface will continue to support freezing rain and sleet as the primary winter precipitation types. Strong low-level cold advection will continue to push the surface freezing line southeastward with time, with a transition to freezing rain expected into parts of south-central AL, southern MS, and northwest GA, where temperatures are currently above 32F. Deepening cold air beneath the warm nose will support primarily sleet across the northwest portion of the precipitation shield. Some oscillation between freezing rain and sleet is possible within the transition zone. ..Dean.. 01/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... LAT...LON 31278928 31908844 32538767 33008710 33768617 34158535 34148498 33808495 33068514 32898522 32478535 32128557 31428669 30828792 30178932 30178962 30288978 30528998 30748983 31278928 Read more View the full article

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A weak upper shortwave trough over the southern Plains vicinity will shift east toward the Carolinas on Thursday. This will result in deep-layer southwesterly flow across the central/eastern Gulf Coast vicinity. At the surface, a weak low over OK/TX will track east across the Gulf coast states, before lifting northeast across the Carolinas by Friday morning. Meanwhile, cold front attendant to the low will spread southeast across the Southeastern U.S. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the surface low will allow for modest Gulf moisture to return northward, with near 60 F dewpoints moving into southern LA/MS/AL and across FL (some higher dewpoints expected central/southern FL). Overall, better thermodynamics will remain over the Gulf, with warm midlevel temperatures and poor lapse rates limiting instability inland. Nevertheless, showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the FL Peninsula in a warm advection regime ahead of the approaching cold front. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/16/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A weak upper shortwave trough over the southern Plains vicinity will shift east toward the Carolinas on Thursday. This will result in deep-layer southwesterly flow across the central/eastern Gulf Coast vicinity. At the surface, a weak low over OK/TX will track east across the Gulf coast states, before lifting northeast across the Carolinas by Friday morning. Meanwhile, cold front attendant to the low will spread southeast across the Southeastern U.S. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the surface low will allow for modest Gulf moisture to return northward, with near 60 F dewpoints moving into southern LA/MS/AL and across FL (some higher dewpoints expected central/southern FL). Overall, better thermodynamics will remain over the Gulf, with warm midlevel temperatures and poor lapse rates limiting instability inland. Nevertheless, showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the FL Peninsula in a warm advection regime ahead of the approaching cold front. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/16/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A weak upper shortwave trough over the southern Plains vicinity will shift east toward the Carolinas on Thursday. This will result in deep-layer southwesterly flow across the central/eastern Gulf Coast vicinity. At the surface, a weak low over OK/TX will track east across the Gulf coast states, before lifting northeast across the Carolinas by Friday morning. Meanwhile, cold front attendant to the low will spread southeast across the Southeastern U.S. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the surface low will allow for modest Gulf moisture to return northward, with near 60 F dewpoints moving into southern LA/MS/AL and across FL (some higher dewpoints expected central/southern FL). Overall, better thermodynamics will remain over the Gulf, with warm midlevel temperatures and poor lapse rates limiting instability inland. Nevertheless, showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the FL Peninsula in a warm advection regime ahead of the approaching cold front. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/16/2024 Read more View the full article

Hard Freeze Warning issued January 16 at 2:40AM EST until January 17 at 9:00AM EST by NWSView the full article

Wind Chill Advisory issued January 16 at 2:36AM EST until January 17 at 11:00AM EST by NWSView the full article

Hard Freeze Warning issued January 16 at 1:46AM EST until January 17 at 9:00AM EST by NWSView the full article

Wind Chill Advisory issued January 16 at 1:46AM EST until January 17 at 9:00AM EST by NWSView the full article

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the eastern U.S. will shift east over the Atlantic while an upper shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest develops southeast to the central Plains. At the surface, high pressure will migrate across the Southeast. As the upper shortwave trough approaches the central Rockies, lee low development is forecast. This low will move east near the Red River (OK/TX) through early Thursday. As the lee low develops and shifts east during the period, southerly low-level flow should increase across the Gulf and parts of TX/LA. Near-60 F dewpoints may approach the immediate TX/LA coast late in the period, but quality boundary-layer moisture will remain offshore. As such, thunderstorms are not expected with a dry and stable airmass being maintained across the CONUS east of the Rockies. ..Leitman.. 01/16/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the eastern U.S. will shift east over the Atlantic while an upper shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest develops southeast to the central Plains. At the surface, high pressure will migrate across the Southeast. As the upper shortwave trough approaches the central Rockies, lee low development is forecast. This low will move east near the Red River (OK/TX) through early Thursday. As the lee low develops and shifts east during the period, southerly low-level flow should increase across the Gulf and parts of TX/LA. Near-60 F dewpoints may approach the immediate TX/LA coast late in the period, but quality boundary-layer moisture will remain offshore. As such, thunderstorms are not expected with a dry and stable airmass being maintained across the CONUS east of the Rockies. ..Leitman.. 01/16/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the eastern U.S. will shift east over the Atlantic while an upper shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest develops southeast to the central Plains. At the surface, high pressure will migrate across the Southeast. As the upper shortwave trough approaches the central Rockies, lee low development is forecast. This low will move east near the Red River (OK/TX) through early Thursday. As the lee low develops and shifts east during the period, southerly low-level flow should increase across the Gulf and parts of TX/LA. Near-60 F dewpoints may approach the immediate TX/LA coast late in the period, but quality boundary-layer moisture will remain offshore. As such, thunderstorms are not expected with a dry and stable airmass being maintained across the CONUS east of the Rockies. ..Leitman.. 01/16/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An amplified large-scale trough will continue eastward across the eastern half of the CONUS, while an expansive arctic air mass shifts east-southeastward from the southern Plains into the Southeast. Cold surface temperatures accompanying the arctic air mass will limit fire-weather concerns across the CONUS. ..Weinman.. 01/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE FL PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... A couple brief tornadoes and isolated damaging winds are possible this morning into the afternoon over parts of the Florida Peninsula. ...Synopsis... A broad longwave trough will slowly shift east over the central to the eastern states with the embedded primary shortwave impulse moving across the OH Valley to the northern Appalachians. This will induce primary cyclogenesis near the Mid-Atlantic to New England coasts, with weaker secondary cyclogenesis over the northeast Gulf to off the South Atlantic coast. ...FL Peninsula... Initially elevated, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing at 12Z within a strengthening low-level warm conveyor ahead of the aforementioned cyclogenesis in the northeast Gulf. Some of this activity may become surface based by late morning in the north-central FL vicinity, along the northern extent of mid to upper 60s surface dew points. The temporal window for this to occur appears relatively limited, as cyclogenesis quickly focuses off the Atlantic coast. In its wake, the trailing surface cold front will push southeast, and isolated thunderstorms will be possible along/ahead of this boundary from late morning into the afternoon. West-southwesterly flow will strengthen throughout the troposphere, yielding strong, nearly unidirectional deep-layer shear. As such, a few supercells are probable, tending to focus across the north part of central FL during the morning to the south part in the afternoon. Low-level winds will tend to become more veered with time, suggesting hodograph curvature will be modest towards peak boundary-layer heating. Storm-scale/boundary interactions will probably be necessary for brief tornado development. Otherwise, isolated strong gusts will be possible in the deepest cores before convection wanes towards early evening. ..Grams/Weinman.. 01/16/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE FL PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... A couple brief tornadoes and isolated damaging winds are possible this morning into the afternoon over parts of the Florida Peninsula. ...Synopsis... A broad longwave trough will slowly shift east over the central to the eastern states with the embedded primary shortwave impulse moving across the OH Valley to the northern Appalachians. This will induce primary cyclogenesis near the Mid-Atlantic to New England coasts, with weaker secondary cyclogenesis over the northeast Gulf to off the South Atlantic coast. ...FL Peninsula... Initially elevated, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing at 12Z within a strengthening low-level warm conveyor ahead of the aforementioned cyclogenesis in the northeast Gulf. Some of this activity may become surface based by late morning in the north-central FL vicinity, along the northern extent of mid to upper 60s surface dew points. The temporal window for this to occur appears relatively limited, as cyclogenesis quickly focuses off the Atlantic coast. In its wake, the trailing surface cold front will push southeast, and isolated thunderstorms will be possible along/ahead of this boundary from late morning into the afternoon. West-southwesterly flow will strengthen throughout the troposphere, yielding strong, nearly unidirectional deep-layer shear. As such, a few supercells are probable, tending to focus across the north part of central FL during the morning to the south part in the afternoon. Low-level winds will tend to become more veered with time, suggesting hodograph curvature will be modest towards peak boundary-layer heating. Storm-scale/boundary interactions will probably be necessary for brief tornado development. Otherwise, isolated strong gusts will be possible in the deepest cores before convection wanes towards early evening. ..Grams/Weinman.. 01/16/2024 Read more View the full article

Flood Warning issued January 15 at 9:26PM EST until January 16 at 7:00PM EST by NWSView the full article

Flood Warning issued January 15 at 9:26PM EST until January 17 at 4:00PM EST by NWSView the full article

Flood Warning issued January 15 at 9:15PM EST until January 16 at 3:43AM EST by NWSView the full article

Flood Warning issued January 15 at 9:15PM EST until further notice by NWSView the full article

Flood Warning issued January 15 at 9:15PM EST until January 17 at 1:40AM EST by NWSView the full article

Flood Warning issued January 15 at 9:15PM EST until January 17 at 5:48AM EST by NWSView the full article

Flood Warning issued January 15 at 9:02PM EST until January 16 at 1:00PM EST by NWSView the full article

Flood Warning issued January 15 at 9:01PM EST until further notice by NWSView the full article

Flood Warning issued January 15 at 9:01PM EST until further notice by NWSView the full article

MD 0071 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHERN LA...SOUTH-CENTRAL MS...NORTHERN AL...NORTHWEST GA...AND SOUTHEAST TN Mesoscale Discussion 0071 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Areas affected...Southern LA...south-central MS...northern AL...northwest GA...and southeast TN Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 160132Z - 160600Z SUMMARY...Winter mixed precipitation (primarily freezing rain and sleet) will continue across portions of the Southeast into the overnight hours. DISCUSSION...Latest surface observations and web cams show a continuation of light freezing rain extending from southern LA northeastward into southeast TN this evening. This precipitation is generally being aided by a persistent low-level frontogenetic circulation and steady low-level warm advection across the region. This forcing for ascent should remain fairly persistent and quasi-stationary through about 06Z, with a slight southeastward evolution of the frontogenetic band with time. The 00Z observed JAN sounding depicts an 8 dec C warm nose atop a substantial (albeit shallow) sub-freezing layer (minimum wet bulb temperature of -8 deg C). Any descending ice should completely melt before re-freezing at the surface, suggesting that freezing rain will remain the predominant precipitation type. Farther north toward northwest GA and southeast TN, a deeper sub-freezing layer and minimal warm nose may favor a mix of sleet and freezing rain. While dry air aloft overspreading the region (evident in water vapor imagery and observed/forecast soundings) and modest forcing for ascent may temper overall precipitation rates, the quasi-stationary forcing will support a fairly prolonged period of light to moderate freezing rain and sleet, with localized bursts of higher rates possible in the more robust cores. Colder surface temperatures will gradually spread southeastward and support freezing rain in areas currently above freezing during the next few hours (i.e., portions of southeast LA and east-central MS). ..Weinman.. 01/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX... LCH...SHV... LAT...LON 30269318 30779292 31449196 32569019 34488706 35308530 35408476 35128432 34638466 33158682 31378909 30519025 29549117 29349200 29439257 29729316 30269318 Read more View the full article