NorthGeorgiaWX

Special Weather Statement issued January 16 at 2:11PM EST by NWSView the full article

MD 0075 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR MUCH OF INTERIOR MAINE Mesoscale Discussion 0075 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Areas affected...Much of interior Maine Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 161849Z - 162245Z SUMMARY...Heavy snow rates on the order of 1-2 inches per hour are increasingly likely by 4-7 PM EST, and probably will linger further into the evening, before spreading to the northeast of the region. DISCUSSION...Downstream of a significant short wave impulse turning northeastward through the lower Great Lakes region, cyclogenesis is underway along a surface frontal zone near the northern Mid Atlantic through southern New England coast vicinity. Associated large-scale ascent is contributing to an expanding and intensifying precipitation shield beneath cooling cloud tops inland of coastal areas. It appears that this will continue while overspreading the remainder of northern New England through the balance of the afternoon, in response to further strengthening of lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection and forcing for upward vertical motion. A general consensus of latest model output indicates a more rapid deepening of the surface cyclone will commence by 21-00Z, largely offshore, across and northeast of the Cape Cod vicinity by 21-00Z. Across the coastal plain into higher terrain of Maine, deep-layer lift, becoming maximized within the mid-level layer favorably cold for large dendritic ice crystal growth, is forecast to become increasingly conducive to heavy snow rates around or above 1 inch per hour by 21-22Z, if not earlier. This will be aided by cold thermodynamic profiles entirely below freezing, and supportive of moderately large snow to liquid water equivalent ratios, as low-level moisture advection off the Atlantic contributes to increasing precipitable water content (.4 to .6 inches). Strengthening frontogentic forcing may contribute to bands of heavier snow rates approaching 2 inches per hour, with the heavy snow lingering through mid to late evening before diminishing and/or spreading with the large-scale ascent northeast of the region. ..Kerr.. 01/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX... LAT...LON 45666715 44236966 43657102 44227114 45277053 46276909 46776794 45666715 Read more View the full article

Wind Chill Advisory issued January 16 at 1:50PM EST until January 17 at 9:00AM EST by NWSView the full article

Hard Freeze Warning issued January 16 at 1:46PM EST until January 17 at 9:00AM EST by NWSView the full article

Hard Freeze Warning issued January 16 at 1:46PM EST until January 17 at 9:00AM EST by NWSView the full article

Freeze Watch issued January 16 at 1:46PM EST until January 18 at 8:00AM EST by NWSView the full article

Hard Freeze Watch issued January 16 at 1:46PM EST until January 18 at 8:00AM EST by NWSView the full article

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1050 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, a stable pattern will exist across the CONUS, primarily due to high pressure centered over the Southeast. A large upper trough over the Northeast will gradually lift northeastward, with offshore surface winds across the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic. Meanwhile, a broad region of cyclonic flow aloft will extend westward across the Plains and Rockies, with an upper ridge along the West Coast. As such, thunderstorms are not forecast due to a lack of instability across the entire CONUS. ..Jewell.. 01/16/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1050 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, a stable pattern will exist across the CONUS, primarily due to high pressure centered over the Southeast. A large upper trough over the Northeast will gradually lift northeastward, with offshore surface winds across the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic. Meanwhile, a broad region of cyclonic flow aloft will extend westward across the Plains and Rockies, with an upper ridge along the West Coast. As such, thunderstorms are not forecast due to a lack of instability across the entire CONUS. ..Jewell.. 01/16/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1050 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, a stable pattern will exist across the CONUS, primarily due to high pressure centered over the Southeast. A large upper trough over the Northeast will gradually lift northeastward, with offshore surface winds across the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic. Meanwhile, a broad region of cyclonic flow aloft will extend westward across the Plains and Rockies, with an upper ridge along the West Coast. As such, thunderstorms are not forecast due to a lack of instability across the entire CONUS. ..Jewell.. 01/16/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1050 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, a stable pattern will exist across the CONUS, primarily due to high pressure centered over the Southeast. A large upper trough over the Northeast will gradually lift northeastward, with offshore surface winds across the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic. Meanwhile, a broad region of cyclonic flow aloft will extend westward across the Plains and Rockies, with an upper ridge along the West Coast. As such, thunderstorms are not forecast due to a lack of instability across the entire CONUS. ..Jewell.. 01/16/2024 Read more View the full article

Flood Warning issued January 16 at 11:53AM EST until January 17 at 1:00AM EST by NWSView the full article

Flood Warning issued January 16 at 11:53AM EST until January 17 at 4:36AM EST by NWSView the full article

Flood Warning issued January 16 at 11:53AM EST until January 21 at 7:00AM EST by NWSView the full article

Flood Warning issued January 16 at 11:51AM EST until January 19 at 1:00PM EST by NWSView the full article

MD 0074 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL FLORIDA Mesoscale Discussion 0074 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1017 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Areas affected...Central Florida Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 161617Z - 161815Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A line of storms moving onto the Florida west coast within the next hour may pose a risk of damaging winds. Watch issuance is not anticipated. DISCUSSION...A band of convection focused along a cold front is slowly approaching the FL west coast per recent radar/satellite imagery. GOES IR and lightning trends show a few intensifying updrafts within the line, denoted by concentrated lightning clusters and cooling cloud top temperatures. This trend should continue as the line moves onshore where temperatures are warming into the low/mid 70s and MLCAPE values are slowly increasing to 1000-1500 J/kg. VWP observations from KTBW show 0-6 km BWD values around 50-60 knots, but deep-layer shear vectors are largely oriented along the boundary with weak line-normal deep-layer shear. This may limit the overall organization/intensity of the line, but may support stronger embedded segments capable of damaging winds. This kinematic regime is not overly favorable for line-embedded tornadoes, but a brief tornado appears possible if a portion of the line can become more oriented from southeast to northwest. Confidence in this scenario is low at this time given recent storm trends, and a damaging wind risk appears more probable. Regardless, the overall severe threat appears too limited to warrant watch issuance. ..Moore/Thompson.. 01/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX... LAT...LON 28268276 28578263 28918271 29598115 29228100 28878081 28458073 28238066 28158070 27668245 27638262 27658273 27868287 28028286 28268276 Read more View the full article

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1001 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL FL... ...SUMMARY... A brief tornado or two and isolated damaging winds are possible through this afternoon across central Florida. ...Central FL this afternoon... A broad midlevel trough from the Ozarks to the OH Valley will progress eastward to the Atlantic coast by late tonight, as an associated surface cold front moves southeastward across central/south FL. A subtle/embedded speed max over the northern Gulf of Mexico will move over north FL this afternoon, and this will help focus thunderstorm development through the day across central FL, both along and south of the cold front. Midlevel lapse rates will not be steep, but some cloud breaks north of ongoing convection and boundary-layer dewpoints in the low 70s will contribute to MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg ahead of the cold front, and somewhat larger buoyancy along the southern fringes of the ongoing convection in central FL. The storms west of Tampa have shown some increase in intensity along the front, and additional storm development is possible along the southern periphery of the ongoing storms across central FL. Deep-layer vertical shear/hodograph length will be sufficient for some organized/rotating storms, while low-level hodograph curvature/SRH will remain relatively larger through early afternoon and begin to decrease by mid-late afternoon as low-level flow veers. The net result will be the potential for line segments or supercells capable of producing isolated wind damage. A brief tornado or two will also be possible, focused a little more toward the Atlantic coast where low-level shear will be modestly stronger through more of the afternoon. ..Thompson/Moore.. 01/16/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1001 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL FL... ...SUMMARY... A brief tornado or two and isolated damaging winds are possible through this afternoon across central Florida. ...Central FL this afternoon... A broad midlevel trough from the Ozarks to the OH Valley will progress eastward to the Atlantic coast by late tonight, as an associated surface cold front moves southeastward across central/south FL. A subtle/embedded speed max over the northern Gulf of Mexico will move over north FL this afternoon, and this will help focus thunderstorm development through the day across central FL, both along and south of the cold front. Midlevel lapse rates will not be steep, but some cloud breaks north of ongoing convection and boundary-layer dewpoints in the low 70s will contribute to MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg ahead of the cold front, and somewhat larger buoyancy along the southern fringes of the ongoing convection in central FL. The storms west of Tampa have shown some increase in intensity along the front, and additional storm development is possible along the southern periphery of the ongoing storms across central FL. Deep-layer vertical shear/hodograph length will be sufficient for some organized/rotating storms, while low-level hodograph curvature/SRH will remain relatively larger through early afternoon and begin to decrease by mid-late afternoon as low-level flow veers. The net result will be the potential for line segments or supercells capable of producing isolated wind damage. A brief tornado or two will also be possible, focused a little more toward the Atlantic coast where low-level shear will be modestly stronger through more of the afternoon. ..Thompson/Moore.. 01/16/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1001 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL FL... ...SUMMARY... A brief tornado or two and isolated damaging winds are possible through this afternoon across central Florida. ...Central FL this afternoon... A broad midlevel trough from the Ozarks to the OH Valley will progress eastward to the Atlantic coast by late tonight, as an associated surface cold front moves southeastward across central/south FL. A subtle/embedded speed max over the northern Gulf of Mexico will move over north FL this afternoon, and this will help focus thunderstorm development through the day across central FL, both along and south of the cold front. Midlevel lapse rates will not be steep, but some cloud breaks north of ongoing convection and boundary-layer dewpoints in the low 70s will contribute to MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg ahead of the cold front, and somewhat larger buoyancy along the southern fringes of the ongoing convection in central FL. The storms west of Tampa have shown some increase in intensity along the front, and additional storm development is possible along the southern periphery of the ongoing storms across central FL. Deep-layer vertical shear/hodograph length will be sufficient for some organized/rotating storms, while low-level hodograph curvature/SRH will remain relatively larger through early afternoon and begin to decrease by mid-late afternoon as low-level flow veers. The net result will be the potential for line segments or supercells capable of producing isolated wind damage. A brief tornado or two will also be possible, focused a little more toward the Atlantic coast where low-level shear will be modestly stronger through more of the afternoon. ..Thompson/Moore.. 01/16/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1001 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL FL... ...SUMMARY... A brief tornado or two and isolated damaging winds are possible through this afternoon across central Florida. ...Central FL this afternoon... A broad midlevel trough from the Ozarks to the OH Valley will progress eastward to the Atlantic coast by late tonight, as an associated surface cold front moves southeastward across central/south FL. A subtle/embedded speed max over the northern Gulf of Mexico will move over north FL this afternoon, and this will help focus thunderstorm development through the day across central FL, both along and south of the cold front. Midlevel lapse rates will not be steep, but some cloud breaks north of ongoing convection and boundary-layer dewpoints in the low 70s will contribute to MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg ahead of the cold front, and somewhat larger buoyancy along the southern fringes of the ongoing convection in central FL. The storms west of Tampa have shown some increase in intensity along the front, and additional storm development is possible along the southern periphery of the ongoing storms across central FL. Deep-layer vertical shear/hodograph length will be sufficient for some organized/rotating storms, while low-level hodograph curvature/SRH will remain relatively larger through early afternoon and begin to decrease by mid-late afternoon as low-level flow veers. The net result will be the potential for line segments or supercells capable of producing isolated wind damage. A brief tornado or two will also be possible, focused a little more toward the Atlantic coast where low-level shear will be modestly stronger through more of the afternoon. ..Thompson/Moore.. 01/16/2024 Read more View the full article

Flood Warning issued January 16 at 11:04AM EST until January 17 at 7:00AM EST by NWSView the full article

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0932 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 01/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1148 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... An amplified large-scale trough will continue eastward across the eastern half of the CONUS, while an expansive arctic air mass shifts east-southeastward from the southern Plains into the Southeast. Cold surface temperatures accompanying the arctic air mass will limit fire-weather concerns across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0932 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 01/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1148 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... An amplified large-scale trough will continue eastward across the eastern half of the CONUS, while an expansive arctic air mass shifts east-southeastward from the southern Plains into the Southeast. Cold surface temperatures accompanying the arctic air mass will limit fire-weather concerns across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

Wind Chill Advisory issued January 16 at 10:11AM EST until January 17 at 10:00AM EST by NWSView the full article

Wind Chill Advisory issued January 16 at 10:11AM EST until January 17 at 10:00AM EST by NWSView the full article