NorthGeorgiaWX

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model output (including the ECENS/GEFS and ECMWF/GFS) continues to indicate that rapid, strong cyclogenesis will proceed Friday across the Mississippi Valley through Atlantic Seaboard, as a vigorous short wave impulse pivots northeast of the southern Great Plains. As the center of the growing cyclone tracks from Arkansas into and through the lower Ohio Valley during the day Friday, lowest surface pressures may fall as much as 15-20 mb in 12 hours. Latest guidance is more suggestive that the stronger mid/level cooling might tend to shift north of the moistening warm sector overspreading the central into eastern Gulf Coast states by midday. While warm mid/upper layers could potentially be mitigating to destabilization and severe weather potential during the afternoon through evening across Alabama and Georgia into the Carolinas, this may be compensated for by a continued increase in low-level moisture. Increased inhibition and weaker mid/upper support might actually be more conducive to discrete supercell development in the presence of intense wind fields (including 50-80+ kts in the 850-700 mb layer) and low-level shear. And models suggest that a dryline structure might develop ahead of the cold front trailing the cyclone as it progresses eastward. Due to lingering uncertainties severe weather probabilities are being maintained at 15 percent across the eastern Gulf into southern Atlantic Coast states vicinity. However, it is still possible that severe weather probabilities will need to be increased in later outlooks for this period. Conditionally the environment appears potentially conducive to strong tornadoes and high convective wind gusts. Following diminishing convective potential over the coming weekend, model output remains quite varied concerning the possibility for another developing surface cyclone across the Gulf of Mexico through Atlantic Seaboard vicinity early next week. Read more View the full article

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model output (including the ECENS/GEFS and ECMWF/GFS) continues to indicate that rapid, strong cyclogenesis will proceed Friday across the Mississippi Valley through Atlantic Seaboard, as a vigorous short wave impulse pivots northeast of the southern Great Plains. As the center of the growing cyclone tracks from Arkansas into and through the lower Ohio Valley during the day Friday, lowest surface pressures may fall as much as 15-20 mb in 12 hours. Latest guidance is more suggestive that the stronger mid/level cooling might tend to shift north of the moistening warm sector overspreading the central into eastern Gulf Coast states by midday. While warm mid/upper layers could potentially be mitigating to destabilization and severe weather potential during the afternoon through evening across Alabama and Georgia into the Carolinas, this may be compensated for by a continued increase in low-level moisture. Increased inhibition and weaker mid/upper support might actually be more conducive to discrete supercell development in the presence of intense wind fields (including 50-80+ kts in the 850-700 mb layer) and low-level shear. And models suggest that a dryline structure might develop ahead of the cold front trailing the cyclone as it progresses eastward. Due to lingering uncertainties severe weather probabilities are being maintained at 15 percent across the eastern Gulf into southern Atlantic Coast states vicinity. However, it is still possible that severe weather probabilities will need to be increased in later outlooks for this period. Conditionally the environment appears potentially conducive to strong tornadoes and high convective wind gusts. Following diminishing convective potential over the coming weekend, model output remains quite varied concerning the possibility for another developing surface cyclone across the Gulf of Mexico through Atlantic Seaboard vicinity early next week. Read more View the full article

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model output (including the ECENS/GEFS and ECMWF/GFS) continues to indicate that rapid, strong cyclogenesis will proceed Friday across the Mississippi Valley through Atlantic Seaboard, as a vigorous short wave impulse pivots northeast of the southern Great Plains. As the center of the growing cyclone tracks from Arkansas into and through the lower Ohio Valley during the day Friday, lowest surface pressures may fall as much as 15-20 mb in 12 hours. Latest guidance is more suggestive that the stronger mid/level cooling might tend to shift north of the moistening warm sector overspreading the central into eastern Gulf Coast states by midday. While warm mid/upper layers could potentially be mitigating to destabilization and severe weather potential during the afternoon through evening across Alabama and Georgia into the Carolinas, this may be compensated for by a continued increase in low-level moisture. Increased inhibition and weaker mid/upper support might actually be more conducive to discrete supercell development in the presence of intense wind fields (including 50-80+ kts in the 850-700 mb layer) and low-level shear. And models suggest that a dryline structure might develop ahead of the cold front trailing the cyclone as it progresses eastward. Due to lingering uncertainties severe weather probabilities are being maintained at 15 percent across the eastern Gulf into southern Atlantic Coast states vicinity. However, it is still possible that severe weather probabilities will need to be increased in later outlooks for this period. Conditionally the environment appears potentially conducive to strong tornadoes and high convective wind gusts. Following diminishing convective potential over the coming weekend, model output remains quite varied concerning the possibility for another developing surface cyclone across the Gulf of Mexico through Atlantic Seaboard vicinity early next week. Read more View the full article

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model output (including the ECENS/GEFS and ECMWF/GFS) continues to indicate that rapid, strong cyclogenesis will proceed Friday across the Mississippi Valley through Atlantic Seaboard, as a vigorous short wave impulse pivots northeast of the southern Great Plains. As the center of the growing cyclone tracks from Arkansas into and through the lower Ohio Valley during the day Friday, lowest surface pressures may fall as much as 15-20 mb in 12 hours. Latest guidance is more suggestive that the stronger mid/level cooling might tend to shift north of the moistening warm sector overspreading the central into eastern Gulf Coast states by midday. While warm mid/upper layers could potentially be mitigating to destabilization and severe weather potential during the afternoon through evening across Alabama and Georgia into the Carolinas, this may be compensated for by a continued increase in low-level moisture. Increased inhibition and weaker mid/upper support might actually be more conducive to discrete supercell development in the presence of intense wind fields (including 50-80+ kts in the 850-700 mb layer) and low-level shear. And models suggest that a dryline structure might develop ahead of the cold front trailing the cyclone as it progresses eastward. Due to lingering uncertainties severe weather probabilities are being maintained at 15 percent across the eastern Gulf into southern Atlantic Coast states vicinity. However, it is still possible that severe weather probabilities will need to be increased in later outlooks for this period. Conditionally the environment appears potentially conducive to strong tornadoes and high convective wind gusts. Following diminishing convective potential over the coming weekend, model output remains quite varied concerning the possibility for another developing surface cyclone across the Gulf of Mexico through Atlantic Seaboard vicinity early next week. Read more View the full article

Wind Advisory issued January 09 at 4:54AM EST until January 09 at 10:00PM EST by NWSView the full article

Flood Watch issued January 09 at 4:34AM EST until January 09 at 7:00PM EST by NWSView the full article

Flood Watch issued January 09 at 4:34AM EST until January 10 at 1:00AM EST by NWSView the full article

Flood Watch issued January 09 at 4:34AM EST until January 09 at 1:00PM EST by NWSView the full article

Flood Watch issued January 09 at 4:34AM EST until January 09 at 7:00PM EST by NWSView the full article

WW 0003 Status Updates STATUS REPORT ON WW 3 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW BVE TO 15 NNE BVE TO 15 SSE GPT TO 30 WNW MOB TO 40 N MOB TO 50 SE MEI TO 50 ESE MEI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0025 ..JEWELL..01/09/24 ATTN...WFO...MOB...TAE...LIX...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 3 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC003-013-025-031-035-039-041-045-053-061-067-069-097-099-129- 131-091040- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN BUTLER CLARKE COFFEE CONECUH COVINGTON CRENSHAW DALE ESCAMBIA GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON MOBILE MONROE WASHINGTON WILCOX FLC005-013-033-045-059-063-091-113-131-133-091040- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY CALHOUN ESCAMBIA GULF HOLMES JACKSON OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA WALTON Read more View the full article

WW 0003 Status Updates STATUS REPORT ON WW 3 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW BVE TO 15 NNE BVE TO 15 SSE GPT TO 30 WNW MOB TO 40 N MOB TO 50 SE MEI TO 50 ESE MEI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0025 ..JEWELL..01/09/24 ATTN...WFO...MOB...TAE...LIX...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 3 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC003-013-025-031-035-039-041-045-053-061-067-069-097-099-129- 131-091040- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN BUTLER CLARKE COFFEE CONECUH COVINGTON CRENSHAW DALE ESCAMBIA GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON MOBILE MONROE WASHINGTON WILCOX FLC005-013-033-045-059-063-091-113-131-133-091040- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY CALHOUN ESCAMBIA GULF HOLMES JACKSON OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA WALTON Read more View the full article

WW 0003 Status Updates STATUS REPORT ON WW 3 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE HUM TO 15 SSE ASD TO 25 ESE MEI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0025 ..LYONS..01/09/24 ATTN...WFO...MOB...TAE...LIX...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 3 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC003-013-023-025-031-035-039-041-045-053-061-067-069-097-099- 129-131-090940- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN BUTLER CHOCTAW CLARKE COFFEE CONECUH COVINGTON CRENSHAW DALE ESCAMBIA GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON MOBILE MONROE WASHINGTON WILCOX FLC005-013-033-045-059-063-091-113-131-133-090940- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY CALHOUN ESCAMBIA GULF HOLMES JACKSON OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA WALTON WASHINGTON Read more View the full article

WW 0003 Status Updates STATUS REPORT ON WW 3 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE HUM TO 15 SSE ASD TO 25 ESE MEI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0025 ..LYONS..01/09/24 ATTN...WFO...MOB...TAE...LIX...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 3 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC003-013-023-025-031-035-039-041-045-053-061-067-069-097-099- 129-131-090940- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN BUTLER CHOCTAW CLARKE COFFEE CONECUH COVINGTON CRENSHAW DALE ESCAMBIA GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON MOBILE MONROE WASHINGTON WILCOX FLC005-013-033-045-059-063-091-113-131-133-090940- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY CALHOUN ESCAMBIA GULF HOLMES JACKSON OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA WALTON WASHINGTON Read more View the full article

MD 0025 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 3... FOR FROM FAR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE Mesoscale Discussion 0025 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Areas affected...from far southeast Louisiana into southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle Concerning...Tornado Watch 3... Valid 090844Z - 091045Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 3 continues. SUMMARY...The greatest tornado risk remains within the warm sector, currently from far southeast Louisiana into southwest Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle. DISCUSSION...A prominent cold front and squall line continue to move rapidly east across far southern MS and southeast LA, and this should move offshore before 10Z. East of the cold front, strong southerly winds continue to aid airmass recovery from the MS Coast into southwest AL and the western FL Panhandle, with dewpoints over 67 F common. This is contributing to over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Meanwhile, area VWPs show extreme low-level shear, with 0-1 km SRH of 300-500 m/s, the strongest values being along the warm front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, some supercells, continue to develop and move north over the northern Gulf of Mexico and into the western FL Panhandle and southern AL. This region is near the warm front, and the influx of higher surface theta-e air values may support an increasing tornado risk over the next several hours. The very strong shear could yet yield a strong tornado. ..Jewell.. 01/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...LIX... LAT...LON 29508982 30228942 30758907 31368870 31568857 31758805 31808736 31608683 31058635 30408640 30358663 30268717 30178769 30208826 30148850 30158870 30068875 29808875 29578893 29428917 29348940 29328957 29378976 29508982 Read more View the full article

High Surf Advisory issued January 09 at 3:37AM EST until January 09 at 7:00PM EST by NWSView the full article

High Wind Warning issued January 09 at 3:35AM EST until January 09 at 10:00PM EST by NWSView the full article

Wind Advisory issued January 09 at 3:35AM EST until January 09 at 10:00PM EST by NWSView the full article

High Wind Warning issued January 09 at 3:24AM EST until January 09 at 1:00PM EST by NWSView the full article

Wind Advisory issued January 09 at 3:24AM EST until January 09 at 7:00PM EST by NWSView the full article

Wind Advisory issued January 09 at 3:24AM EST until January 10 at 1:00AM EST by NWSView the full article

Wind Advisory issued January 09 at 3:18AM EST until January 09 at 6:00PM EST by NWSView the full article

Wind Advisory issued January 09 at 3:18AM EST until January 09 at 6:00PM EST by NWSView the full article

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorm development is possible Thursday night across parts of central and eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, where storms may increasingly pose a risk for severe hail, wind and tornadoes prior to daybreak Friday. ...Discussion... To the east of persistent amplified mid/upper ridging within the split flow across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific, one notable short wave impulse of northern Canadian Arctic origins is forecast to dig southeast of the Canadian Rockies, into the northern U.S. intermountain region and Rockies by late Thursday night. Downstream of this perturbation, another short wave trough, of northern mid-latitude Pacific origins, is forecast to dig through the Southwestern international border area, before rapidly pivoting east of the southern Rockies/northern Mexican Plateau through the southern Great Plains by the end of the period. As stronger mid/upper forcing for ascent associated with the lead perturbation approaches the Ark-La-Tex vicinity, it still appears that a surface low may begin to consolidate within deepening surface troughing across the southern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley. Timing of the onset of more rapid deepening is becoming a bit more unclear, but still seems probable prior to 12Z Friday. Once this occurs, a more substantive inland influx of low-level moisture, off a still modifying boundary-layer over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, is expected to contribute to increasing near-surface or surface-based destabilization. This appears likely to be aided by steepening lapse rates associated with mid-level cooling, in the exit region of an intense jet streak (northwesterly to westerly at 100-120 kt around 500 mb). Coincident with strengthening southerly lower-level flow (in excess of 50 kt) across the lower Mississippi Valley by 12Z Friday, rapidly intensifying thunderstorms posing increasing severe weather potential is possible by late Thursday night, if not earlier. The mid/upper forcing for ascent may contribute to thunderstorm initiation as early and far west as late Thursday evening near the (roughly) I-35 corridor of central Texas. This may gradually evolve into an upscale growing and organizing cluster across eastern Texas into western Louisiana and Arkansas, with an additional area of downstream warm advection driven supercell development possible closer to the Mississippi River, by the end of the period. ..Kerr.. 01/09/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorm development is possible Thursday night across parts of central and eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, where storms may increasingly pose a risk for severe hail, wind and tornadoes prior to daybreak Friday. ...Discussion... To the east of persistent amplified mid/upper ridging within the split flow across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific, one notable short wave impulse of northern Canadian Arctic origins is forecast to dig southeast of the Canadian Rockies, into the northern U.S. intermountain region and Rockies by late Thursday night. Downstream of this perturbation, another short wave trough, of northern mid-latitude Pacific origins, is forecast to dig through the Southwestern international border area, before rapidly pivoting east of the southern Rockies/northern Mexican Plateau through the southern Great Plains by the end of the period. As stronger mid/upper forcing for ascent associated with the lead perturbation approaches the Ark-La-Tex vicinity, it still appears that a surface low may begin to consolidate within deepening surface troughing across the southern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley. Timing of the onset of more rapid deepening is becoming a bit more unclear, but still seems probable prior to 12Z Friday. Once this occurs, a more substantive inland influx of low-level moisture, off a still modifying boundary-layer over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, is expected to contribute to increasing near-surface or surface-based destabilization. This appears likely to be aided by steepening lapse rates associated with mid-level cooling, in the exit region of an intense jet streak (northwesterly to westerly at 100-120 kt around 500 mb). Coincident with strengthening southerly lower-level flow (in excess of 50 kt) across the lower Mississippi Valley by 12Z Friday, rapidly intensifying thunderstorms posing increasing severe weather potential is possible by late Thursday night, if not earlier. The mid/upper forcing for ascent may contribute to thunderstorm initiation as early and far west as late Thursday evening near the (roughly) I-35 corridor of central Texas. This may gradually evolve into an upscale growing and organizing cluster across eastern Texas into western Louisiana and Arkansas, with an additional area of downstream warm advection driven supercell development possible closer to the Mississippi River, by the end of the period. ..Kerr.. 01/09/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorm development is possible Thursday night across parts of central and eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, where storms may increasingly pose a risk for severe hail, wind and tornadoes prior to daybreak Friday. ...Discussion... To the east of persistent amplified mid/upper ridging within the split flow across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific, one notable short wave impulse of northern Canadian Arctic origins is forecast to dig southeast of the Canadian Rockies, into the northern U.S. intermountain region and Rockies by late Thursday night. Downstream of this perturbation, another short wave trough, of northern mid-latitude Pacific origins, is forecast to dig through the Southwestern international border area, before rapidly pivoting east of the southern Rockies/northern Mexican Plateau through the southern Great Plains by the end of the period. As stronger mid/upper forcing for ascent associated with the lead perturbation approaches the Ark-La-Tex vicinity, it still appears that a surface low may begin to consolidate within deepening surface troughing across the southern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley. Timing of the onset of more rapid deepening is becoming a bit more unclear, but still seems probable prior to 12Z Friday. Once this occurs, a more substantive inland influx of low-level moisture, off a still modifying boundary-layer over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, is expected to contribute to increasing near-surface or surface-based destabilization. This appears likely to be aided by steepening lapse rates associated with mid-level cooling, in the exit region of an intense jet streak (northwesterly to westerly at 100-120 kt around 500 mb). Coincident with strengthening southerly lower-level flow (in excess of 50 kt) across the lower Mississippi Valley by 12Z Friday, rapidly intensifying thunderstorms posing increasing severe weather potential is possible by late Thursday night, if not earlier. The mid/upper forcing for ascent may contribute to thunderstorm initiation as early and far west as late Thursday evening near the (roughly) I-35 corridor of central Texas. This may gradually evolve into an upscale growing and organizing cluster across eastern Texas into western Louisiana and Arkansas, with an additional area of downstream warm advection driven supercell development possible closer to the Mississippi River, by the end of the period. ..Kerr.. 01/09/2024 Read more View the full article