NorthGeorgiaWX

Wind Advisory issued January 08 at 6:55PM EST until January 09 at 10:00PM EST by NWSView the full article

WW 0001 Status Updates STATUS REPORT ON WW 1 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW LBX TO 30 ENE HOU TO 45 WSW POE TO 20 WSW POE. ..SQUITIERI..01/08/24 ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 1 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC001-003-009-011-019-023-039-045-053-055-079-097-099-101-113- 115-090040- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ACADIA ALLEN AVOYELLES BEAUREGARD CALCASIEU CAMERON EVANGELINE IBERIA JEFFERSON DAVIS LAFAYETTE RAPIDES ST. LANDRY ST. MARTIN ST. MARY VERMILION VERNON TXC039-071-167-245-361-090040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRAZORIA CHAMBERS GALVESTON JEFFERSON ORANGE GMZ335-355-430-432-435-436-450-452-455-090040- Read more View the full article

WW 0001 Status Updates STATUS REPORT ON WW 1 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW LBX TO 30 ENE HOU TO 45 WSW POE TO 20 WSW POE. ..SQUITIERI..01/08/24 ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 1 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC001-003-009-011-019-023-039-045-053-055-079-097-099-101-113- 115-090040- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ACADIA ALLEN AVOYELLES BEAUREGARD CALCASIEU CAMERON EVANGELINE IBERIA JEFFERSON DAVIS LAFAYETTE RAPIDES ST. LANDRY ST. MARTIN ST. MARY VERMILION VERNON TXC039-071-167-245-361-090040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRAZORIA CHAMBERS GALVESTON JEFFERSON ORANGE GMZ335-355-430-432-435-436-450-452-455-090040- Read more View the full article

High Wind Warning issued January 08 at 6:30PM EST until January 09 at 10:00PM EST by NWSView the full article

Wind Advisory issued January 08 at 6:30PM EST until January 09 at 10:00PM EST by NWSView the full article

MD 0021 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 1... FOR SOUTHWEST LA AND SOUTHEAST TX Mesoscale Discussion 0021 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0521 PM CST Mon Jan 08 2024 Areas affected...southwest LA and southeast TX Concerning...Tornado Watch 1... Valid 082321Z - 090015Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 1 continues. SUMMARY...Ongoing storms will continue to pose a risk for damaging gusts, and hail this evening. Isolated tornadoes will remain possible near the warm front. DISCUSSION...As of 2315 UTC a band of thunderstorms was ongoing across southeast TX into western LA along a surging cold front. Ahead of the front, a supercell on the TX/LA border is quickly approaching the northern end of the warm sector. A brief uptick in intensity is possible as the storm approaches the warm front. However, the narrow warm sector and the encroaching cold front may result in gradual elevation above the surface with time. Still a brief tornado, wind and hail risk may evolve with the storm over the next hour. Farther southwest recent lightning trends show the undercutting front has surged ahead of the convection limiting updraft strength. While storms have been slow to mature, an increase in the nocturnal low-level jet may support a slow uptick in storm coverage and intensity later this evening. Veered low-level flow would support a broken/linear band of storms with eventual upscale growth into a more organized QLCS possible with time. Damaging wind gusts and embedded circulations capable of tornadoes appear possible across the remainder of WW1. ..Lyons.. 01/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX... LAT...LON 29319396 29289444 29359513 29519522 29789500 30099470 30949380 31189348 31439291 31469235 31379196 31239174 30609182 30099200 29819213 29379260 29319396 Read more View the full article

WW 0001 Status Updates STATUS REPORT ON WW 1 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N PSX TO 35 WNW HOU TO 40 ESE UTS TO 25 SE LFK. ..SQUITIERI..01/08/24 ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 1 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC001-003-011-019-023-039-045-053-055-097-099-101-113-082340- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ACADIA ALLEN BEAUREGARD CALCASIEU CAMERON EVANGELINE IBERIA JEFFERSON DAVIS LAFAYETTE ST. LANDRY ST. MARTIN ST. MARY VERMILION TXC039-071-157-167-199-201-241-245-291-351-361-457-481-082340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRAZORIA CHAMBERS FORT BEND GALVESTON HARDIN HARRIS JASPER JEFFERSON LIBERTY NEWTON ORANGE TYLER WHARTON GMZ335-355-430-432-435-436-450-452-455-082340- Read more View the full article

WW 0001 Status Updates STATUS REPORT ON WW 1 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N PSX TO 35 WNW HOU TO 40 ESE UTS TO 25 SE LFK. ..SQUITIERI..01/08/24 ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 1 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC001-003-011-019-023-039-045-053-055-097-099-101-113-082340- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ACADIA ALLEN BEAUREGARD CALCASIEU CAMERON EVANGELINE IBERIA JEFFERSON DAVIS LAFAYETTE ST. LANDRY ST. MARTIN ST. MARY VERMILION TXC039-071-157-167-199-201-241-245-291-351-361-457-481-082340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRAZORIA CHAMBERS FORT BEND GALVESTON HARDIN HARRIS JASPER JEFFERSON LIBERTY NEWTON ORANGE TYLER WHARTON GMZ335-355-430-432-435-436-450-452-455-082340- Read more View the full article

WW 0002 Status Updates STATUS FOR WATCH 0002 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more View the full article

WW 0002 Status Updates STATUS FOR WATCH 0002 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more View the full article

WW 0002 Status Updates STATUS FOR WATCH 0002 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more View the full article

WW 0002 Status Updates STATUS FOR WATCH 0002 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more View the full article

WW 2 TORNADO LA MS CW 082230Z - 090300Z URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 2 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 430 PM CST Mon Jan 8 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southeast Louisiana Coastal Mississippi Coastal Waters * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 430 PM until 900 PM CST. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms, some with supercell structures, will continue to spread northeastward through late evening. A couple of tornadoes, isolated large hail up to 1.5 inches in diameter and isolated damaging gusts will all be possible. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 70 miles west northwest of Houma LA to 35 miles south southeast of Gulfport MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 1... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23045. ...Thompson Read more View the full article

WW 2 TORNADO LA MS CW 082230Z - 090300Z URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 2 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 430 PM CST Mon Jan 8 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southeast Louisiana Coastal Mississippi Coastal Waters * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 430 PM until 900 PM CST. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms, some with supercell structures, will continue to spread northeastward through late evening. A couple of tornadoes, isolated large hail up to 1.5 inches in diameter and isolated damaging gusts will all be possible. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 70 miles west northwest of Houma LA to 35 miles south southeast of Gulfport MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 1... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23045. ...Thompson Read more View the full article

MD 0020 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEAST LA Mesoscale Discussion 0020 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 PM CST Mon Jan 08 2024 Areas affected...Southeast LA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 082138Z - 082345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Severe storms will eventually spread into southeast Louisiana, but the shorter-term risk is uncertain. DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis (as verified by visible imagery) shows the surface warm front extending from Jefferson Davis Parish southeastward and off the coast of southeast LA. The boundary is lifting northward, and moist/unstable surface conditions should move into southeast LA in the next few hours. However, radar/satellite imagery suggest very little robust convection to the south of the warm front, and recent HRRR solutions also lend doubt regarding thunderstorm coverage in the next few hours. Nevertheless with very strong shear profiles in place, and increasing low-level moisture and instability, this area will be closely monitored for increasing thunderstorms south of the warm front. If this trend develops, a tornado watch will be considered. Otherwise, it might be a few hours from now as the main cold front approaches from the west. ..Hart/Gleason.. 01/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH... LAT...LON 28768960 29109085 30029165 30879142 31119026 30178894 29218879 28768960 Read more View the full article

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 PM CST Mon Jan 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z In the wake of a strong upper-level trough, broad cyclonic flow within the southern U.S. will develop by the middle of this week in advance of the next strong trough that will eject into the southern Plains late this week. Another weaker upper-level trough will follow a similar path this coming weekend into early next week. Cold air at the surface will be continually reinforced with some farther southern movement with each trough passage. Fire weather concerns will generally remain low on account of these cold temperatures and/or precipitation associated with the troughs. Areas that could potentially see some increase in fire weather risk are from the Trans-Pecos into the Rio Grand Valley/South Texas as the late-week trough moves through the southern Plains. Dry and windy conditions will first occur Thursday in the Trans-Pecos as the surface low deepens in West Texas. On Friday, dry northwesterly flow will overspread the Rio Grand Valley into South Texas behind the cold front. Fuels will experience some drying from dry and very windy conditions on Monday/Tuesday. As newer fuel data becomes available, highlights may be considered. ..Wendt.. 01/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 PM CST Mon Jan 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z In the wake of a strong upper-level trough, broad cyclonic flow within the southern U.S. will develop by the middle of this week in advance of the next strong trough that will eject into the southern Plains late this week. Another weaker upper-level trough will follow a similar path this coming weekend into early next week. Cold air at the surface will be continually reinforced with some farther southern movement with each trough passage. Fire weather concerns will generally remain low on account of these cold temperatures and/or precipitation associated with the troughs. Areas that could potentially see some increase in fire weather risk are from the Trans-Pecos into the Rio Grand Valley/South Texas as the late-week trough moves through the southern Plains. Dry and windy conditions will first occur Thursday in the Trans-Pecos as the surface low deepens in West Texas. On Friday, dry northwesterly flow will overspread the Rio Grand Valley into South Texas behind the cold front. Fuels will experience some drying from dry and very windy conditions on Monday/Tuesday. As newer fuel data becomes available, highlights may be considered. ..Wendt.. 01/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 PM CST Mon Jan 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z In the wake of a strong upper-level trough, broad cyclonic flow within the southern U.S. will develop by the middle of this week in advance of the next strong trough that will eject into the southern Plains late this week. Another weaker upper-level trough will follow a similar path this coming weekend into early next week. Cold air at the surface will be continually reinforced with some farther southern movement with each trough passage. Fire weather concerns will generally remain low on account of these cold temperatures and/or precipitation associated with the troughs. Areas that could potentially see some increase in fire weather risk are from the Trans-Pecos into the Rio Grand Valley/South Texas as the late-week trough moves through the southern Plains. Dry and windy conditions will first occur Thursday in the Trans-Pecos as the surface low deepens in West Texas. On Friday, dry northwesterly flow will overspread the Rio Grand Valley into South Texas behind the cold front. Fuels will experience some drying from dry and very windy conditions on Monday/Tuesday. As newer fuel data becomes available, highlights may be considered. ..Wendt.. 01/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

WW 0001 Status Updates STATUS REPORT ON WW 1 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S CLL TO 30 SE CLL TO 20 SW UTS TO 25 NE UTS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0019 ..SQUITIERI..01/08/24 ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 1 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC001-003-011-019-023-039-045-053-055-097-099-101-113-082240- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ACADIA ALLEN BEAUREGARD CALCASIEU CAMERON EVANGELINE IBERIA JEFFERSON DAVIS LAFAYETTE ST. LANDRY ST. MARTIN ST. MARY VERMILION TXC015-039-071-089-157-167-199-201-241-245-291-339-351-361-373- 407-457-473-481-082240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUSTIN BRAZORIA CHAMBERS COLORADO FORT BEND GALVESTON HARDIN HARRIS JASPER JEFFERSON LIBERTY MONTGOMERY NEWTON ORANGE POLK Read more View the full article

WW 0001 Status Updates STATUS REPORT ON WW 1 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S CLL TO 30 SE CLL TO 20 SW UTS TO 25 NE UTS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0019 ..SQUITIERI..01/08/24 ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 1 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC001-003-011-019-023-039-045-053-055-097-099-101-113-082240- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ACADIA ALLEN BEAUREGARD CALCASIEU CAMERON EVANGELINE IBERIA JEFFERSON DAVIS LAFAYETTE ST. LANDRY ST. MARTIN ST. MARY VERMILION TXC015-039-071-089-157-167-199-201-241-245-291-339-351-361-373- 407-457-473-481-082240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUSTIN BRAZORIA CHAMBERS COLORADO FORT BEND GALVESTON HARDIN HARRIS JASPER JEFFERSON LIBERTY MONTGOMERY NEWTON ORANGE POLK Read more View the full article

MD 0019 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 1... FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA Mesoscale Discussion 0019 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 PM CST Mon Jan 08 2024 Areas affected...Southeast Texas...Southwest Louisiana Concerning...Tornado Watch 1... Valid 082105Z - 082200Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 1 continues. SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms have developed along the warm front over southeast TX. DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows the surface warm front now extends roughly from Trinity/Polk counties of southeast TX into Beauregard and Jefferson Davis Parishes of southwest LA. Multiple small supercells storms have formed in vicinity of the front to the east of CLL, where there have been a few recent tornado reports. It is unclear how much farther northeast these storms can remain surface-based, as they cross the warm front into a more stable low-level environment. Other similar storms may form across WW #1 through the early evening, given the very strong low-level shear profiles and favorable thermodynamics. To the southwest, strong storms have formed along the approaching cold front. This activity will move into the HOU metro area in the next hour or two, with some tornado risk. However, linear forcing mechanisms suggest hail/wind might be the primary threat. ..Hart.. 01/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...CRP...EWX... LAT...LON 30179693 31249505 31259362 30639146 29399099 29149159 29499328 29389475 29129612 28949706 29069752 29429750 30179693 Read more View the full article

MD 0018 CONCERNING BLIZZARD FOR WESTERN KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA Mesoscale Discussion 0018 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CST Mon Jan 08 2024 Areas affected...Western Kansas into southern Nebraska Concerning...Blizzard Valid 082048Z - 090045Z SUMMARY...Blizzard conditions continue into the evening. DISCUSSION...Winds continue to strengthen across western Kansas with sustained winds as high as 44 knots at KULS with numerous locations reporting blizzard conditions. Winds may still strengthen further over the next few hours as the northerly low-level jet continues to strengthen/broaden on the western periphery of the 850mb low. Strong cold air advection also continues with temperatures in the low 20s now across northwest Kansas. Moderate to heavy snowfall within the deformation band will slowly drift east through the evening as the surface low advances eastward. Blizzard conditions will continue across western Kansas and into southern Nebraska through this period with only slow improvement from west to east. ..Bentley.. 01/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA... LAT...LON 38469878 37529918 37059959 36890027 37000156 37730183 39360113 40709980 40769972 40599889 38729875 38469878 Read more View the full article

High Wind Warning issued January 08 at 3:36PM EST until January 09 at 10:00PM EST by NWSView the full article

Wind Advisory issued January 08 at 3:36PM EST until January 09 at 10:00PM EST by NWSView the full article

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Mon Jan 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA...AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of strong/damaging wind gusts and tornadoes are expected across the Gulf Coast States this afternoon through early Tuesday morning, spanning from southeast Texas and southern Louisiana across southern Mississippi, southern Alabama to the western Florida Panhandle. Strong tornadoes are possible. ...20Z Update... The primary changes to the outlook were to trim probabilities from the northwest to reflect the cold frontal passage, and expand probabilities southward along the cold front into central TX, where recent storm development has been noted within a favorable environment. Otherwise, the previous outlook reasoning remains valid. Parts of southeast TX are being monitored for supercell maturation, with potential for all severe hazards. See MCD 17 and Tornado Watch 1 for more information regarding the short-term threats in this area. An extensive QLCS is still expected to develop this evening and move eastward along the Gulf Coast, with recent HRRR runs suggesting some potential for prefrontal supercell development. Any mature pre-frontal supercells could pose a strong tornado threat late tonight across parts of the central Gulf Coast, with damaging wind and line-embedded tornadoes also possible with the primary QLCS. A Moderate Risk upgrade remains possible with the 01Z update, depending on observational and short-term guidance trends regarding northward advance of the warm front and potential for mature prefrontal supercells overnight. ..Dean.. 01/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Mon Jan 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A powerful upper cyclone over the southern Plains this morning will eject east-northeastward today, eventually reaching the lower/mid MS Valley by early Tuesday morning. A very strong mid-level jet (around 90-110 kt) associated with this cyclone will translate eastward across TX and the lower MS Valley through tonight. Primary surface low over the TX Panhandle this morning is expected to develop across OK today, and it should reach the mid MS Valley by the end of the period. A secondary surface low should develop across coastal/southeast TX today, and into LA and central MS by late this evening. Low-level mass response and warm/moist advection is already occurring in earnest across coastal TX. This trend is forecast to continue as a surface warm front lifts northward across coastal portions of LA/MS/AL and the FL Panhandle this evening through tonight. A cold front attendant to the secondary surface low will continue to sweep quickly eastward across TX and the lower MS Valley through the period. ...North/Central Texas into ArkLaTex today... A line of elevated convection is ongoing this morning across parts of north/central TX along the cold front. This activity should tend to remain elevated in the short term, but some threat for occasional strong/gusty winds may exist this afternoon and evening as the line moves into a gradually destabilizing airmass. Additional convection that forms ahead of the front in a strong low-level warm advection regime could acquire supercell characteristics given the very strong deep-layer shear. These thunderstorms will probably pose some threat for hail even if they remain elevated as they race east-northeastward. ...Southeast Texas into Southwest Louisiana this afternoon and evening... Mid to upper 60s F surface dewpoints will become increasingly common across southeast Texas/southwest Louisiana as a southerly low-level jet strengthens to 50-65 kt across this area. Persistent cloud cover and ongoing showers/thunderstorms along/north of the warm front should limit solar heating to some extent. But, lingering MLCIN should weaken through the afternoon as deep-layer ascent increases and gradual warming of the boundary layer occurs. In tandem with steeping mid-level lapse rates, 1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE appears likely to develop by peak heating later this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms should gradually evolve/deepen as forcing for ascent increases with the ejecting upper cyclone, coincident with strong low-level and deep-layer shear that will easily supercells and an increasing hail, damaging wind, and tornado risk. A few semi-discrete storms/supercells may develop ahead of more linearly organized storms evolving near the cold front during the afternoon and evening. Given the strength of the low-level flow and ample forecast effective SRH, strong tornadoes appear possible. ...Southeast Louisiana into Southern Mississippi/Alabama and the Florida Panhandle this evening through late tonight... Have held at Enhanced Risk with this update due to uncertainty regarding potential for pre-frontal supercells ahead of the squall line, mainly after 06Z tonight. Latest guidance continues to suggest that rich low-level moisture will attempt to rapidly advect northward in tandem with a marine warm front this evening and tonight as a very strong (60-70+ kt) southerly low-level jet develops over the lower MS Valley and Southeast. Elevated showers and thunderstorms occurring in this low-level warm advection regime may tend to hamper the inland extent of the surface warm sector to areas along/near the coast. Even so, both low-level and deep-layer shear appear very favorable for organized severe convection, including the potential for tornadoes and significant damaging winds. Multiple rounds of severe weather will likely occur from parts of southeast LA into southern MS/AL and the FL Panhandle beginning later this evening, and continuing through tonight into early Tuesday morning. The potential for surface-based supercells ahead of the cold front is still somewhat uncertain. But, if any can form and be sustained in the low-level warm advection regime along/south of the warm front, they would be capable of producing strong tornadoes given effective SRH potentially exceeding 400 m2/s2. Greater potential for scattered to numerous damaging winds, some of which could be significant, is apparent with an intense squall line that will likely consolidate and strengthen as it races eastward across southern LA/MS/AL and parts of the FL Panhandle late tonight. Multiple embedded QLCS tornadoes, some of which could be strong given the very favorable low-level shear, are also a distinct possibility. Observational and guidance trends will be closely monitored across this area for signs of increasing pre-frontal supercell potential, which may necessitate greater tornado probabilities in a later outlook. Read more View the full article