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MD 0016 CONCERNING BLIZZARD FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO...WESTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. Mesoscale Discussion 0016 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 AM CST Mon Jan 08 2024 Areas affected...Portions of eastern Colorado...western Kansas and southern Nebraska. Concerning...Blizzard Valid 081635Z - 082030Z SUMMARY...Blizzard conditions have started to develop across western Kansas. These conditions will expand to portions of eastern Colorado and into southern Nebraska this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Northerly flow has started to strengthen across western Kansas in response to the deepening 850mb low near the TX/OK Panhandle. Some of this stronger flow has started to mix to the surface within the snow band across western Kansas. This has resulted in sustained winds of 25 to 30 knots across southwest Kansas. Expect winds to strengthen further through the afternoon as the cyclone continues to amplify. In addition, these winds will more efficiently mix to the surface through the day as cold air advection strengthens in the region. As colder air filters into the area, snow ratios will increase and visibility restrictions from blowing snow will likely increase which is expected to further exacerbate blizzard conditions late this afternoon and into this evening. ..Bentley.. 01/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB... LAT...LON 39880187 40520046 40749972 40659916 39849887 38439916 37730046 37290177 37110258 37630301 38880269 39840193 39880187 Read more View the full article

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Mon Jan 08 2024 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA...AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of strong/damaging wind gusts and tornadoes are expected across the Gulf Coast States this afternoon through early Tuesday morning, spanning from southeast Texas and southern Louisiana across southern Mississippi, southern Alabama to the western Florida Panhandle. Strong tornadoes are possible. ...Synopsis... A powerful upper cyclone over the southern Plains this morning will eject east-northeastward today, eventually reaching the lower/mid MS Valley by early Tuesday morning. A very strong mid-level jet (around 90-110 kt) associated with this cyclone will translate eastward across TX and the lower MS Valley through tonight. Primary surface low over the TX Panhandle this morning is expected to develop across OK today, and it should reach the mid MS Valley by the end of the period. A secondary surface low should develop across coastal/southeast TX today, and into LA and central MS by late this evening. Low-level mass response and warm/moist advection is already occurring in earnest across coastal TX. This trend is forecast to continue as a surface warm front lifts northward across coastal portions of LA/MS/AL and the FL Panhandle this evening through tonight. A cold front attendant to the secondary surface low will continue to sweep quickly eastward across TX and the lower MS Valley through the period. ...North/Central Texas into ArkLaTex today... A line of elevated convection is ongoing this morning across parts of north/central TX along the cold front. This activity should tend to remain elevated in the short term, but some threat for occasional strong/gusty winds may exist this afternoon and evening as the line moves into a gradually destabilizing airmass. Additional convection that forms ahead of the front in a strong low-level warm advection regime could acquire supercell characteristics given the very strong deep-layer shear. These thunderstorms will probably pose some threat for hail even if they remain elevated as they race east-northeastward. ...Southeast Texas into Southwest Louisiana this afternoon and evening... Mid to upper 60s F surface dewpoints will become increasingly common across southeast Texas/southwest Louisiana as a southerly low-level jet strengthens to 50-65 kt across this area. Persistent cloud cover and ongoing showers/thunderstorms along/north of the warm front should limit solar heating to some extent. But, lingering MLCIN should weaken through the afternoon as deep-layer ascent increases and gradual warming of the boundary layer occurs. In tandem with steeping mid-level lapse rates, 1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE appears likely to develop by peak heating later this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms should gradually evolve/deepen as forcing for ascent increases with the ejecting upper cyclone, coincident with strong low-level and deep-layer shear that will easily supercells and an increasing hail, damaging wind, and tornado risk. A few semi-discrete storms/supercells may develop ahead of more linearly organized storms evolving near the cold front during the afternoon and evening. Given the strength of the low-level flow and ample forecast effective SRH, strong tornadoes appear possible. ...Southeast Louisiana into Southern Mississippi/Alabama and the Florida Panhandle this evening through late tonight... Have held at Enhanced Risk with this update due to uncertainty regarding potential for pre-frontal supercells ahead of the squall line, mainly after 06Z tonight. Latest guidance continues to suggest that rich low-level moisture will attempt to rapidly advect northward in tandem with a marine warm front this evening and tonight as a very strong (60-70+ kt) southerly low-level jet develops over the lower MS Valley and Southeast. Elevated showers and thunderstorms occurring in this low-level warm advection regime may tend to hamper the inland extent of the surface warm sector to areas along/near the coast. Even so, both low-level and deep-layer shear appear very favorable for organized severe convection, including the potential for tornadoes and significant damaging winds. Multiple rounds of severe weather will likely occur from parts of southeast LA into southern MS/AL and the FL Panhandle beginning later this evening, and continuing through tonight into early Tuesday morning. The potential for surface-based supercells ahead of the cold front is still somewhat uncertain. But, if any can form and be sustained in the low-level warm advection regime along/south of the warm front, they would be capable of producing strong tornadoes given effective SRH potentially exceeding 400 m2/s2. Greater potential for scattered to numerous damaging winds, some of which could be significant, is apparent with an intense squall line that will likely consolidate and strengthen as it races eastward across southern LA/MS/AL and parts of the FL Panhandle late tonight. Multiple embedded QLCS tornadoes, some of which could be strong given the very favorable low-level shear, are also a distinct possibility. Observational and guidance trends will be closely monitored across this area for signs of increasing pre-frontal supercell potential, which may necessitate greater tornado probabilities in a later outlook. ..Gleason/Bentley.. 01/08/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Mon Jan 08 2024 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA...AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of strong/damaging wind gusts and tornadoes are expected across the Gulf Coast States this afternoon through early Tuesday morning, spanning from southeast Texas and southern Louisiana across southern Mississippi, southern Alabama to the western Florida Panhandle. Strong tornadoes are possible. ...Synopsis... A powerful upper cyclone over the southern Plains this morning will eject east-northeastward today, eventually reaching the lower/mid MS Valley by early Tuesday morning. A very strong mid-level jet (around 90-110 kt) associated with this cyclone will translate eastward across TX and the lower MS Valley through tonight. Primary surface low over the TX Panhandle this morning is expected to develop across OK today, and it should reach the mid MS Valley by the end of the period. A secondary surface low should develop across coastal/southeast TX today, and into LA and central MS by late this evening. Low-level mass response and warm/moist advection is already occurring in earnest across coastal TX. This trend is forecast to continue as a surface warm front lifts northward across coastal portions of LA/MS/AL and the FL Panhandle this evening through tonight. A cold front attendant to the secondary surface low will continue to sweep quickly eastward across TX and the lower MS Valley through the period. ...North/Central Texas into ArkLaTex today... A line of elevated convection is ongoing this morning across parts of north/central TX along the cold front. This activity should tend to remain elevated in the short term, but some threat for occasional strong/gusty winds may exist this afternoon and evening as the line moves into a gradually destabilizing airmass. Additional convection that forms ahead of the front in a strong low-level warm advection regime could acquire supercell characteristics given the very strong deep-layer shear. These thunderstorms will probably pose some threat for hail even if they remain elevated as they race east-northeastward. ...Southeast Texas into Southwest Louisiana this afternoon and evening... Mid to upper 60s F surface dewpoints will become increasingly common across southeast Texas/southwest Louisiana as a southerly low-level jet strengthens to 50-65 kt across this area. Persistent cloud cover and ongoing showers/thunderstorms along/north of the warm front should limit solar heating to some extent. But, lingering MLCIN should weaken through the afternoon as deep-layer ascent increases and gradual warming of the boundary layer occurs. In tandem with steeping mid-level lapse rates, 1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE appears likely to develop by peak heating later this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms should gradually evolve/deepen as forcing for ascent increases with the ejecting upper cyclone, coincident with strong low-level and deep-layer shear that will easily supercells and an increasing hail, damaging wind, and tornado risk. A few semi-discrete storms/supercells may develop ahead of more linearly organized storms evolving near the cold front during the afternoon and evening. Given the strength of the low-level flow and ample forecast effective SRH, strong tornadoes appear possible. ...Southeast Louisiana into Southern Mississippi/Alabama and the Florida Panhandle this evening through late tonight... Have held at Enhanced Risk with this update due to uncertainty regarding potential for pre-frontal supercells ahead of the squall line, mainly after 06Z tonight. Latest guidance continues to suggest that rich low-level moisture will attempt to rapidly advect northward in tandem with a marine warm front this evening and tonight as a very strong (60-70+ kt) southerly low-level jet develops over the lower MS Valley and Southeast. Elevated showers and thunderstorms occurring in this low-level warm advection regime may tend to hamper the inland extent of the surface warm sector to areas along/near the coast. Even so, both low-level and deep-layer shear appear very favorable for organized severe convection, including the potential for tornadoes and significant damaging winds. Multiple rounds of severe weather will likely occur from parts of southeast LA into southern MS/AL and the FL Panhandle beginning later this evening, and continuing through tonight into early Tuesday morning. The potential for surface-based supercells ahead of the cold front is still somewhat uncertain. But, if any can form and be sustained in the low-level warm advection regime along/south of the warm front, they would be capable of producing strong tornadoes given effective SRH potentially exceeding 400 m2/s2. Greater potential for scattered to numerous damaging winds, some of which could be significant, is apparent with an intense squall line that will likely consolidate and strengthen as it races eastward across southern LA/MS/AL and parts of the FL Panhandle late tonight. Multiple embedded QLCS tornadoes, some of which could be strong given the very favorable low-level shear, are also a distinct possibility. Observational and guidance trends will be closely monitored across this area for signs of increasing pre-frontal supercell potential, which may necessitate greater tornado probabilities in a later outlook. ..Gleason/Bentley.. 01/08/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Mon Jan 08 2024 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA...AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of strong/damaging wind gusts and tornadoes are expected across the Gulf Coast States this afternoon through early Tuesday morning, spanning from southeast Texas and southern Louisiana across southern Mississippi, southern Alabama to the western Florida Panhandle. Strong tornadoes are possible. ...Synopsis... A powerful upper cyclone over the southern Plains this morning will eject east-northeastward today, eventually reaching the lower/mid MS Valley by early Tuesday morning. A very strong mid-level jet (around 90-110 kt) associated with this cyclone will translate eastward across TX and the lower MS Valley through tonight. Primary surface low over the TX Panhandle this morning is expected to develop across OK today, and it should reach the mid MS Valley by the end of the period. A secondary surface low should develop across coastal/southeast TX today, and into LA and central MS by late this evening. Low-level mass response and warm/moist advection is already occurring in earnest across coastal TX. This trend is forecast to continue as a surface warm front lifts northward across coastal portions of LA/MS/AL and the FL Panhandle this evening through tonight. A cold front attendant to the secondary surface low will continue to sweep quickly eastward across TX and the lower MS Valley through the period. ...North/Central Texas into ArkLaTex today... A line of elevated convection is ongoing this morning across parts of north/central TX along the cold front. This activity should tend to remain elevated in the short term, but some threat for occasional strong/gusty winds may exist this afternoon and evening as the line moves into a gradually destabilizing airmass. Additional convection that forms ahead of the front in a strong low-level warm advection regime could acquire supercell characteristics given the very strong deep-layer shear. These thunderstorms will probably pose some threat for hail even if they remain elevated as they race east-northeastward. ...Southeast Texas into Southwest Louisiana this afternoon and evening... Mid to upper 60s F surface dewpoints will become increasingly common across southeast Texas/southwest Louisiana as a southerly low-level jet strengthens to 50-65 kt across this area. Persistent cloud cover and ongoing showers/thunderstorms along/north of the warm front should limit solar heating to some extent. But, lingering MLCIN should weaken through the afternoon as deep-layer ascent increases and gradual warming of the boundary layer occurs. In tandem with steeping mid-level lapse rates, 1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE appears likely to develop by peak heating later this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms should gradually evolve/deepen as forcing for ascent increases with the ejecting upper cyclone, coincident with strong low-level and deep-layer shear that will easily supercells and an increasing hail, damaging wind, and tornado risk. A few semi-discrete storms/supercells may develop ahead of more linearly organized storms evolving near the cold front during the afternoon and evening. Given the strength of the low-level flow and ample forecast effective SRH, strong tornadoes appear possible. ...Southeast Louisiana into Southern Mississippi/Alabama and the Florida Panhandle this evening through late tonight... Have held at Enhanced Risk with this update due to uncertainty regarding potential for pre-frontal supercells ahead of the squall line, mainly after 06Z tonight. Latest guidance continues to suggest that rich low-level moisture will attempt to rapidly advect northward in tandem with a marine warm front this evening and tonight as a very strong (60-70+ kt) southerly low-level jet develops over the lower MS Valley and Southeast. Elevated showers and thunderstorms occurring in this low-level warm advection regime may tend to hamper the inland extent of the surface warm sector to areas along/near the coast. Even so, both low-level and deep-layer shear appear very favorable for organized severe convection, including the potential for tornadoes and significant damaging winds. Multiple rounds of severe weather will likely occur from parts of southeast LA into southern MS/AL and the FL Panhandle beginning later this evening, and continuing through tonight into early Tuesday morning. The potential for surface-based supercells ahead of the cold front is still somewhat uncertain. But, if any can form and be sustained in the low-level warm advection regime along/south of the warm front, they would be capable of producing strong tornadoes given effective SRH potentially exceeding 400 m2/s2. Greater potential for scattered to numerous damaging winds, some of which could be significant, is apparent with an intense squall line that will likely consolidate and strengthen as it races eastward across southern LA/MS/AL and parts of the FL Panhandle late tonight. Multiple embedded QLCS tornadoes, some of which could be strong given the very favorable low-level shear, are also a distinct possibility. Observational and guidance trends will be closely monitored across this area for signs of increasing pre-frontal supercell potential, which may necessitate greater tornado probabilities in a later outlook. ..Gleason/Bentley.. 01/08/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Mon Jan 08 2024 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA...AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of strong/damaging wind gusts and tornadoes are expected across the Gulf Coast States this afternoon through early Tuesday morning, spanning from southeast Texas and southern Louisiana across southern Mississippi, southern Alabama to the western Florida Panhandle. Strong tornadoes are possible. ...Synopsis... A powerful upper cyclone over the southern Plains this morning will eject east-northeastward today, eventually reaching the lower/mid MS Valley by early Tuesday morning. A very strong mid-level jet (around 90-110 kt) associated with this cyclone will translate eastward across TX and the lower MS Valley through tonight. Primary surface low over the TX Panhandle this morning is expected to develop across OK today, and it should reach the mid MS Valley by the end of the period. A secondary surface low should develop across coastal/southeast TX today, and into LA and central MS by late this evening. Low-level mass response and warm/moist advection is already occurring in earnest across coastal TX. This trend is forecast to continue as a surface warm front lifts northward across coastal portions of LA/MS/AL and the FL Panhandle this evening through tonight. A cold front attendant to the secondary surface low will continue to sweep quickly eastward across TX and the lower MS Valley through the period. ...North/Central Texas into ArkLaTex today... A line of elevated convection is ongoing this morning across parts of north/central TX along the cold front. This activity should tend to remain elevated in the short term, but some threat for occasional strong/gusty winds may exist this afternoon and evening as the line moves into a gradually destabilizing airmass. Additional convection that forms ahead of the front in a strong low-level warm advection regime could acquire supercell characteristics given the very strong deep-layer shear. These thunderstorms will probably pose some threat for hail even if they remain elevated as they race east-northeastward. ...Southeast Texas into Southwest Louisiana this afternoon and evening... Mid to upper 60s F surface dewpoints will become increasingly common across southeast Texas/southwest Louisiana as a southerly low-level jet strengthens to 50-65 kt across this area. Persistent cloud cover and ongoing showers/thunderstorms along/north of the warm front should limit solar heating to some extent. But, lingering MLCIN should weaken through the afternoon as deep-layer ascent increases and gradual warming of the boundary layer occurs. In tandem with steeping mid-level lapse rates, 1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE appears likely to develop by peak heating later this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms should gradually evolve/deepen as forcing for ascent increases with the ejecting upper cyclone, coincident with strong low-level and deep-layer shear that will easily supercells and an increasing hail, damaging wind, and tornado risk. A few semi-discrete storms/supercells may develop ahead of more linearly organized storms evolving near the cold front during the afternoon and evening. Given the strength of the low-level flow and ample forecast effective SRH, strong tornadoes appear possible. ...Southeast Louisiana into Southern Mississippi/Alabama and the Florida Panhandle this evening through late tonight... Have held at Enhanced Risk with this update due to uncertainty regarding potential for pre-frontal supercells ahead of the squall line, mainly after 06Z tonight. Latest guidance continues to suggest that rich low-level moisture will attempt to rapidly advect northward in tandem with a marine warm front this evening and tonight as a very strong (60-70+ kt) southerly low-level jet develops over the lower MS Valley and Southeast. Elevated showers and thunderstorms occurring in this low-level warm advection regime may tend to hamper the inland extent of the surface warm sector to areas along/near the coast. Even so, both low-level and deep-layer shear appear very favorable for organized severe convection, including the potential for tornadoes and significant damaging winds. Multiple rounds of severe weather will likely occur from parts of southeast LA into southern MS/AL and the FL Panhandle beginning later this evening, and continuing through tonight into early Tuesday morning. The potential for surface-based supercells ahead of the cold front is still somewhat uncertain. But, if any can form and be sustained in the low-level warm advection regime along/south of the warm front, they would be capable of producing strong tornadoes given effective SRH potentially exceeding 400 m2/s2. Greater potential for scattered to numerous damaging winds, some of which could be significant, is apparent with an intense squall line that will likely consolidate and strengthen as it races eastward across southern LA/MS/AL and parts of the FL Panhandle late tonight. Multiple embedded QLCS tornadoes, some of which could be strong given the very favorable low-level shear, are also a distinct possibility. Observational and guidance trends will be closely monitored across this area for signs of increasing pre-frontal supercell potential, which may necessitate greater tornado probabilities in a later outlook. ..Gleason/Bentley.. 01/08/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Mon Jan 08 2024 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA...AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of strong/damaging wind gusts and tornadoes are expected across the Gulf Coast States this afternoon through early Tuesday morning, spanning from southeast Texas and southern Louisiana across southern Mississippi, southern Alabama to the western Florida Panhandle. Strong tornadoes are possible. ...Synopsis... A powerful upper cyclone over the southern Plains this morning will eject east-northeastward today, eventually reaching the lower/mid MS Valley by early Tuesday morning. A very strong mid-level jet (around 90-110 kt) associated with this cyclone will translate eastward across TX and the lower MS Valley through tonight. Primary surface low over the TX Panhandle this morning is expected to develop across OK today, and it should reach the mid MS Valley by the end of the period. A secondary surface low should develop across coastal/southeast TX today, and into LA and central MS by late this evening. Low-level mass response and warm/moist advection is already occurring in earnest across coastal TX. This trend is forecast to continue as a surface warm front lifts northward across coastal portions of LA/MS/AL and the FL Panhandle this evening through tonight. A cold front attendant to the secondary surface low will continue to sweep quickly eastward across TX and the lower MS Valley through the period. ...North/Central Texas into ArkLaTex today... A line of elevated convection is ongoing this morning across parts of north/central TX along the cold front. This activity should tend to remain elevated in the short term, but some threat for occasional strong/gusty winds may exist this afternoon and evening as the line moves into a gradually destabilizing airmass. Additional convection that forms ahead of the front in a strong low-level warm advection regime could acquire supercell characteristics given the very strong deep-layer shear. These thunderstorms will probably pose some threat for hail even if they remain elevated as they race east-northeastward. ...Southeast Texas into Southwest Louisiana this afternoon and evening... Mid to upper 60s F surface dewpoints will become increasingly common across southeast Texas/southwest Louisiana as a southerly low-level jet strengthens to 50-65 kt across this area. Persistent cloud cover and ongoing showers/thunderstorms along/north of the warm front should limit solar heating to some extent. But, lingering MLCIN should weaken through the afternoon as deep-layer ascent increases and gradual warming of the boundary layer occurs. In tandem with steeping mid-level lapse rates, 1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE appears likely to develop by peak heating later this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms should gradually evolve/deepen as forcing for ascent increases with the ejecting upper cyclone, coincident with strong low-level and deep-layer shear that will easily supercells and an increasing hail, damaging wind, and tornado risk. A few semi-discrete storms/supercells may develop ahead of more linearly organized storms evolving near the cold front during the afternoon and evening. Given the strength of the low-level flow and ample forecast effective SRH, strong tornadoes appear possible. ...Southeast Louisiana into Southern Mississippi/Alabama and the Florida Panhandle this evening through late tonight... Have held at Enhanced Risk with this update due to uncertainty regarding potential for pre-frontal supercells ahead of the squall line, mainly after 06Z tonight. Latest guidance continues to suggest that rich low-level moisture will attempt to rapidly advect northward in tandem with a marine warm front this evening and tonight as a very strong (60-70+ kt) southerly low-level jet develops over the lower MS Valley and Southeast. Elevated showers and thunderstorms occurring in this low-level warm advection regime may tend to hamper the inland extent of the surface warm sector to areas along/near the coast. Even so, both low-level and deep-layer shear appear very favorable for organized severe convection, including the potential for tornadoes and significant damaging winds. Multiple rounds of severe weather will likely occur from parts of southeast LA into southern MS/AL and the FL Panhandle beginning later this evening, and continuing through tonight into early Tuesday morning. The potential for surface-based supercells ahead of the cold front is still somewhat uncertain. But, if any can form and be sustained in the low-level warm advection regime along/south of the warm front, they would be capable of producing strong tornadoes given effective SRH potentially exceeding 400 m2/s2. Greater potential for scattered to numerous damaging winds, some of which could be significant, is apparent with an intense squall line that will likely consolidate and strengthen as it races eastward across southern LA/MS/AL and parts of the FL Panhandle late tonight. Multiple embedded QLCS tornadoes, some of which could be strong given the very favorable low-level shear, are also a distinct possibility. Observational and guidance trends will be closely monitored across this area for signs of increasing pre-frontal supercell potential, which may necessitate greater tornado probabilities in a later outlook. ..Gleason/Bentley.. 01/08/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Mon Jan 08 2024 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CST Mon Jan 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... An impressive upper trough will eject eastward over the southern Plains will undergoing significant amplification through the forecast period. with a deepening surface cyclone expected over parts of OK and North TX. Strong southwest winds behind the low are expected to develop across parts of West TX and the Big Bend along with lower humidity. While area fuels are not expected to be overly dry, a few hours of elevated to locally critical meteorological conditions are possible. ...Texas Big Bend... As the strong surface cyclone over OK continues to deepen, west/southwest downslope flow will gradually develop over West TX and the Big Bend region. Aided by strong mid-level flow ahead of the approaching trough, gusts of 30-40 mph are possible through the afternoon. RH values below 20% are also possible within the dry warm sector of the strengthening cyclone. A few hours of overlap of dry and windy surface conditions should support elevated to locally critical meteorological conditions across parts of the TX Big Bend region. However, area fuels are not particularly receptive given recent freezes and near normal fuel moisture. While a few hours of localized fire-concerns are possible, widespread critical conditions appear unlikely. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Mon Jan 08 2024 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CST Mon Jan 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... An impressive upper trough will eject eastward over the southern Plains will undergoing significant amplification through the forecast period. with a deepening surface cyclone expected over parts of OK and North TX. Strong southwest winds behind the low are expected to develop across parts of West TX and the Big Bend along with lower humidity. While area fuels are not expected to be overly dry, a few hours of elevated to locally critical meteorological conditions are possible. ...Texas Big Bend... As the strong surface cyclone over OK continues to deepen, west/southwest downslope flow will gradually develop over West TX and the Big Bend region. Aided by strong mid-level flow ahead of the approaching trough, gusts of 30-40 mph are possible through the afternoon. RH values below 20% are also possible within the dry warm sector of the strengthening cyclone. A few hours of overlap of dry and windy surface conditions should support elevated to locally critical meteorological conditions across parts of the TX Big Bend region. However, area fuels are not particularly receptive given recent freezes and near normal fuel moisture. While a few hours of localized fire-concerns are possible, widespread critical conditions appear unlikely. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

Flood Watch issued January 08 at 10:44AM EST until January 09 at 7:00PM EST by NWSView the full article

MD 0015 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EAST TEXAS Mesoscale Discussion 0015 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0940 AM CST Mon Jan 08 2024 Areas affected...East Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 081540Z - 081745Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Scattered elevated thunderstorms over east Texas may begin to pose a risk of hail in the strongest cores. Watch issuance seems unlikely at this time, but trends are being monitored. DISCUSSION...Recent radar/satellite loops show scattered showers and thunderstorms slowly intensifying over parts of east TX. This activity is along the core of a strong southerly low-level jet, and north of a surface warm front. Parcels near the surface remain stable. But forecast soundings in this area show steep mid-level lapse rates and weak-but-sufficient elevated CAPE for the risk of a few robust updrafts. Low-level/deep-layer shear is quite strong, which would support at least transient supercell structures as well. So far, trends of this activity have remained below severe limits, and model guidance suggests it may still be several hours before a more focused severe threat develops. Nevertheless, trends will be closely monitored for an increasing risk. ..Hart/Gleason.. 01/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... LAT...LON 29979458 29649605 30029757 31229744 32349683 32629549 32239408 30929390 29979458 Read more View the full article

MD 0014 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA Mesoscale Discussion 0014 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0927 AM CST Mon Jan 08 2024 Areas affected...Northeast Kansas into southeast Nebraska Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 081527Z - 081830Z SUMMARY...Rain will transition to heavy snow across northeast Kansas and vicinity late this morning into the afternoon. DISCUSSION...Several observation sites across northeast Kansas have switched from rain to snow in the last hour as the column cools from increasing isentropic ascent across the region. Expect this to continue for the remaining areas across northeast Kansas where rain is still falling. This strong ascent will also lead to very heavy snowfall rates in excess of 1 inch per hour. In addition, the heavier snowfall rates will lift into southeast Nebraska by midday with some snowfall rates approaching 2 inches per hour amid a deeper DGZ and colder surface temperatures. Winds will increase to around 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph this afternoon which will lead to an increase in blowing and drifting across the region. ..Bentley.. 01/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID... LAT...LON 38869847 39349893 40619882 41139810 41539702 41379590 40259556 39599490 39099485 38479515 38209559 38139624 38229717 38869847 Read more View the full article

Flood Watch issued January 08 at 9:28AM EST until January 09 at 7:00PM EST by NWSView the full article

Flood Watch issued January 08 at 9:28AM EST until January 10 at 7:00AM EST by NWSView the full article

MD 0013 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR NORTHWEST KS...SOUTH-CENTRAL NE Mesoscale Discussion 0013 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 AM CST Mon Jan 08 2024 Areas affected...northwest KS...south-central NE Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 081339Z - 081745Z SUMMARY...Heavy snowfall rates around 1 to 1.5 inches per hour are possible through the morning. DISCUSSION...A mesoscale band of heavier snowfall rates appears to be developing across northwest KS on the northern periphery of a warm conveyor belt located over the southern-central Great Plains. Frontogenetic forcing for ascent is forecast to continue to strengthen during the morning across western KS and eventually into southern NE by late morning. The 12 UTC Dodge City raob showed a moist profile and an above-freezing layer from the surface through 800 mb. A surface front is draped southwest to northeast from far southwestern KS north-northeast into northwest KS (i.e., located to the northwest of Dodge City). The colder airmass north of the front will support snow as the precipitation type. Model guidance indicates upwards of 0.10 to 0.15 inches per hour liquid-equivalent precipitation across northwest KS this morning. As a result of nearly 10:1 snow ratios, expecting 1 to 1.5 inches per hour (locally heavier bursts are possible) as lift continues to strengthen during the morning. ..Smith.. 01/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GID...DDC...GLD... LAT...LON 40030000 40149952 40109896 39989880 39709884 39569942 38630058 38560091 38670115 38950127 39170123 40030000 Read more View the full article

Public Severe Weather Outlook PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0734 AM CST MON JAN 08 2024 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Gulf Coast later today and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Southern Louisiana Southern Mississippi Southeast Texas Southern Alabama Florida Panhandle * HAZARDS... A few intense tornadoes Scattered damaging winds, some hurricane force Isolated large hail * SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of strong wind gusts and tornadoes are expected across the Gulf Coast States this afternoon through early Tuesday morning. This includes the possibility of strong tornadoes and a significant nighttime severe weather risk for southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi into southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle. Preparedness actions... Tornadoes at night can be particularly dangerous because they are usually fast-moving and difficult to see. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Read more View the full article

Public Severe Weather Outlook PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0734 AM CST MON JAN 08 2024 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Gulf Coast later today and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Southern Louisiana Southern Mississippi Southeast Texas Southern Alabama Florida Panhandle * HAZARDS... A few intense tornadoes Scattered damaging winds, some hurricane force Isolated large hail * SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of strong wind gusts and tornadoes are expected across the Gulf Coast States this afternoon through early Tuesday morning. This includes the possibility of strong tornadoes and a significant nighttime severe weather risk for southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi into southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle. Preparedness actions... Tornadoes at night can be particularly dangerous because they are usually fast-moving and difficult to see. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Read more View the full article

Public Severe Weather Outlook PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0734 AM CST MON JAN 08 2024 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Gulf Coast later today and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Southern Louisiana Southern Mississippi Southeast Texas Southern Alabama Florida Panhandle * HAZARDS... A few intense tornadoes Scattered damaging winds, some hurricane force Isolated large hail * SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of strong wind gusts and tornadoes are expected across the Gulf Coast States this afternoon through early Tuesday morning. This includes the possibility of strong tornadoes and a significant nighttime severe weather risk for southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi into southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle. Preparedness actions... Tornadoes at night can be particularly dangerous because they are usually fast-moving and difficult to see. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Read more View the full article

Public Severe Weather Outlook PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0734 AM CST MON JAN 08 2024 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Gulf Coast later today and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Southern Louisiana Southern Mississippi Southeast Texas Southern Alabama Florida Panhandle * HAZARDS... A few intense tornadoes Scattered damaging winds, some hurricane force Isolated large hail * SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of strong wind gusts and tornadoes are expected across the Gulf Coast States this afternoon through early Tuesday morning. This includes the possibility of strong tornadoes and a significant nighttime severe weather risk for southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi into southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle. Preparedness actions... Tornadoes at night can be particularly dangerous because they are usually fast-moving and difficult to see. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Read more View the full article

Public Severe Weather Outlook PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0734 AM CST MON JAN 08 2024 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Gulf Coast later today and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Southern Louisiana Southern Mississippi Southeast Texas Southern Alabama Florida Panhandle * HAZARDS... A few intense tornadoes Scattered damaging winds, some hurricane force Isolated large hail * SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of strong wind gusts and tornadoes are expected across the Gulf Coast States this afternoon through early Tuesday morning. This includes the possibility of strong tornadoes and a significant nighttime severe weather risk for southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi into southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle. Preparedness actions... Tornadoes at night can be particularly dangerous because they are usually fast-moving and difficult to see. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Read more View the full article

Public Severe Weather Outlook PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0734 AM CST MON JAN 08 2024 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Gulf Coast later today and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Southern Louisiana Southern Mississippi Southeast Texas Southern Alabama Florida Panhandle * HAZARDS... A few intense tornadoes Scattered damaging winds, some hurricane force Isolated large hail * SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of strong wind gusts and tornadoes are expected across the Gulf Coast States this afternoon through early Tuesday morning. This includes the possibility of strong tornadoes and a significant nighttime severe weather risk for southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi into southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle. Preparedness actions... Tornadoes at night can be particularly dangerous because they are usually fast-moving and difficult to see. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Read more View the full article

Public Severe Weather Outlook PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0734 AM CST MON JAN 08 2024 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Gulf Coast later today and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Southern Louisiana Southern Mississippi Southeast Texas Southern Alabama Florida Panhandle * HAZARDS... A few intense tornadoes Scattered damaging winds, some hurricane force Isolated large hail * SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of strong wind gusts and tornadoes are expected across the Gulf Coast States this afternoon through early Tuesday morning. This includes the possibility of strong tornadoes and a significant nighttime severe weather risk for southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi into southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle. Preparedness actions... Tornadoes at night can be particularly dangerous because they are usually fast-moving and difficult to see. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Read more View the full article

Public Severe Weather Outlook PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0734 AM CST MON JAN 08 2024 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Gulf Coast later today and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Southern Louisiana Southern Mississippi Southeast Texas Southern Alabama Florida Panhandle * HAZARDS... A few intense tornadoes Scattered damaging winds, some hurricane force Isolated large hail * SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of strong wind gusts and tornadoes are expected across the Gulf Coast States this afternoon through early Tuesday morning. This includes the possibility of strong tornadoes and a significant nighttime severe weather risk for southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi into southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle. Preparedness actions... Tornadoes at night can be particularly dangerous because they are usually fast-moving and difficult to see. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Read more View the full article

No watches are valid as of Mon Jan 8 13:36:02 UTC 2024.View the full article

No watches are valid as of Mon Jan 8 13:36:02 UTC 2024.View the full article

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0707 AM CST Mon Jan 08 2024 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of strong wind gusts and tornadoes are expected across the Gulf Coast States this afternoon through early Tuesday morning, spanning southeast Texas and southern Louisiana across southern Mississippi, southern Alabama to the western Florida Panhandle. ...Northern Texas/ArkLaTex Today... Thunderstorms erupted overnight within the warm conveyor extending across north Texas into Oklahoma/Kansas, which includes some well-organized linear structures across western north Texas/Big Country in the predawn hours. These more organized storms are elevated and occurring parallel to robustly strengthening deep-layer southwesterly winds. Severe hail potential will tend to be mitigated by a more linear convective mode, while severe-caliber wind gust potential, particularly with northward regional extent, will tend to be limited by the coolness/stability of the boundary layer. Regardless, some stronger thunderstorm wind gusts could occur through the afternoon. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 12. ...East/southeast Texas to southwest Louisiana through Evening... Secondary surface low development is expected across east Texas through the afternoon with an evolving surface triple point across east-central Texas, all while mid/upper 60s F surface dewpoints become increasingly common across southeast Texas/southwest Louisiana. Widespread cloud cover and scattered warm advection showers will initially limit solar heating, but inhibition should weaken through the afternoon as deep-layer ascent increases and gradual warming of the boundary layer supports 1200-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Scattered thunderstorms should gradually evolve/deepen as forcing for ascent increases this afternoon, coincident with strong low-level and deep-layer shear profiles sufficient for supercells and an increasing tornado/damaging wind risk. A few semi-discrete storms/supercells may develop ahead of more linearly organized storms evolving near the cold front during the afternoon and evening. A strong tornado could occur given the magnitude of the low-level shear/SRH. ...Middle Gulf Coast tonight through early Tuesday... A particularly active severe-weather scenario is expected tonight through early Tuesday across the region, spanning areas from southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama to the western Florida Panhandle. This may include multiple rounds of fast-moving severe storms, with concerns for nocturnal strong tornadoes and wind damage through the overnight hours as extremely strong low/mid-level winds influence the region in tandem with an inland developing warm/moist sector. Scattered elevated showers and thunderstorms should develop/increase and expand northeastward across today to the north of a warm front as the warm conveyor gradually refocuses eastward across the region. Some guidance suggests this convection could be fairly extensive, which will probably hinder the northward extent of richer maritime air later today/tonight, tending to focus the highest probability severe risks in coastal areas (generally within 75 miles from the Gulf of Mexico). Aided by a surface wave across the ArkLaMiss and eventually into Alabama, in the wake of the aforementioned elevated storms earlier in the day, an influx of higher theta-e will move inland tonight with an increasing potential for surface-based storms across the aforementioned coastal regions. Semi-discrete supercells capable of tornado potential may first increase tonight near the inland-advancing warm front, which will precede (to the east of) increasingly organized linear convection near the cold front/surface wave across Louisiana/Mississippi. This will be a time when deep-layer/low-level winds are dramatically strengthening, accentuated by a 70+ kt low-level jet. Some portions of the region, especially parts of southeast Louisiana and far southern Mississippi, may experience multiple rounds of severe storms that have a tornado risk. Regardless, a consequential damaging wind/tornado risk will regionally increase nocturnally, including the potential for strong (EF2+) tornadoes, in multiple regimes potentially including some semi-discrete near-coastal supercells as well as the more prevalent evolving quasi-linear convection that is likely to reach southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle by the predawn hours (roughly 09Z-12Z). ..Guyer/Smith.. 01/08/2024 Read more View the full article