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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0707 AM CST Mon Jan 08 2024 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of strong wind gusts and tornadoes are expected across the Gulf Coast States this afternoon through early Tuesday morning, spanning southeast Texas and southern Louisiana across southern Mississippi, southern Alabama to the western Florida Panhandle. ...Northern Texas/ArkLaTex Today... Thunderstorms erupted overnight within the warm conveyor extending across north Texas into Oklahoma/Kansas, which includes some well-organized linear structures across western north Texas/Big Country in the predawn hours. These more organized storms are elevated and occurring parallel to robustly strengthening deep-layer southwesterly winds. Severe hail potential will tend to be mitigated by a more linear convective mode, while severe-caliber wind gust potential, particularly with northward regional extent, will tend to be limited by the coolness/stability of the boundary layer. Regardless, some stronger thunderstorm wind gusts could occur through the afternoon. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 12. ...East/southeast Texas to southwest Louisiana through Evening... Secondary surface low development is expected across east Texas through the afternoon with an evolving surface triple point across east-central Texas, all while mid/upper 60s F surface dewpoints become increasingly common across southeast Texas/southwest Louisiana. Widespread cloud cover and scattered warm advection showers will initially limit solar heating, but inhibition should weaken through the afternoon as deep-layer ascent increases and gradual warming of the boundary layer supports 1200-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Scattered thunderstorms should gradually evolve/deepen as forcing for ascent increases this afternoon, coincident with strong low-level and deep-layer shear profiles sufficient for supercells and an increasing tornado/damaging wind risk. A few semi-discrete storms/supercells may develop ahead of more linearly organized storms evolving near the cold front during the afternoon and evening. A strong tornado could occur given the magnitude of the low-level shear/SRH. ...Middle Gulf Coast tonight through early Tuesday... A particularly active severe-weather scenario is expected tonight through early Tuesday across the region, spanning areas from southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama to the western Florida Panhandle. This may include multiple rounds of fast-moving severe storms, with concerns for nocturnal strong tornadoes and wind damage through the overnight hours as extremely strong low/mid-level winds influence the region in tandem with an inland developing warm/moist sector. Scattered elevated showers and thunderstorms should develop/increase and expand northeastward across today to the north of a warm front as the warm conveyor gradually refocuses eastward across the region. Some guidance suggests this convection could be fairly extensive, which will probably hinder the northward extent of richer maritime air later today/tonight, tending to focus the highest probability severe risks in coastal areas (generally within 75 miles from the Gulf of Mexico). Aided by a surface wave across the ArkLaMiss and eventually into Alabama, in the wake of the aforementioned elevated storms earlier in the day, an influx of higher theta-e will move inland tonight with an increasing potential for surface-based storms across the aforementioned coastal regions. Semi-discrete supercells capable of tornado potential may first increase tonight near the inland-advancing warm front, which will precede (to the east of) increasingly organized linear convection near the cold front/surface wave across Louisiana/Mississippi. This will be a time when deep-layer/low-level winds are dramatically strengthening, accentuated by a 70+ kt low-level jet. Some portions of the region, especially parts of southeast Louisiana and far southern Mississippi, may experience multiple rounds of severe storms that have a tornado risk. Regardless, a consequential damaging wind/tornado risk will regionally increase nocturnally, including the potential for strong (EF2+) tornadoes, in multiple regimes potentially including some semi-discrete near-coastal supercells as well as the more prevalent evolving quasi-linear convection that is likely to reach southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle by the predawn hours (roughly 09Z-12Z). ..Guyer/Smith.. 01/08/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0707 AM CST Mon Jan 08 2024 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of strong wind gusts and tornadoes are expected across the Gulf Coast States this afternoon through early Tuesday morning, spanning southeast Texas and southern Louisiana across southern Mississippi, southern Alabama to the western Florida Panhandle. ...Northern Texas/ArkLaTex Today... Thunderstorms erupted overnight within the warm conveyor extending across north Texas into Oklahoma/Kansas, which includes some well-organized linear structures across western north Texas/Big Country in the predawn hours. These more organized storms are elevated and occurring parallel to robustly strengthening deep-layer southwesterly winds. Severe hail potential will tend to be mitigated by a more linear convective mode, while severe-caliber wind gust potential, particularly with northward regional extent, will tend to be limited by the coolness/stability of the boundary layer. Regardless, some stronger thunderstorm wind gusts could occur through the afternoon. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 12. ...East/southeast Texas to southwest Louisiana through Evening... Secondary surface low development is expected across east Texas through the afternoon with an evolving surface triple point across east-central Texas, all while mid/upper 60s F surface dewpoints become increasingly common across southeast Texas/southwest Louisiana. Widespread cloud cover and scattered warm advection showers will initially limit solar heating, but inhibition should weaken through the afternoon as deep-layer ascent increases and gradual warming of the boundary layer supports 1200-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Scattered thunderstorms should gradually evolve/deepen as forcing for ascent increases this afternoon, coincident with strong low-level and deep-layer shear profiles sufficient for supercells and an increasing tornado/damaging wind risk. A few semi-discrete storms/supercells may develop ahead of more linearly organized storms evolving near the cold front during the afternoon and evening. A strong tornado could occur given the magnitude of the low-level shear/SRH. ...Middle Gulf Coast tonight through early Tuesday... A particularly active severe-weather scenario is expected tonight through early Tuesday across the region, spanning areas from southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama to the western Florida Panhandle. This may include multiple rounds of fast-moving severe storms, with concerns for nocturnal strong tornadoes and wind damage through the overnight hours as extremely strong low/mid-level winds influence the region in tandem with an inland developing warm/moist sector. Scattered elevated showers and thunderstorms should develop/increase and expand northeastward across today to the north of a warm front as the warm conveyor gradually refocuses eastward across the region. Some guidance suggests this convection could be fairly extensive, which will probably hinder the northward extent of richer maritime air later today/tonight, tending to focus the highest probability severe risks in coastal areas (generally within 75 miles from the Gulf of Mexico). Aided by a surface wave across the ArkLaMiss and eventually into Alabama, in the wake of the aforementioned elevated storms earlier in the day, an influx of higher theta-e will move inland tonight with an increasing potential for surface-based storms across the aforementioned coastal regions. Semi-discrete supercells capable of tornado potential may first increase tonight near the inland-advancing warm front, which will precede (to the east of) increasingly organized linear convection near the cold front/surface wave across Louisiana/Mississippi. This will be a time when deep-layer/low-level winds are dramatically strengthening, accentuated by a 70+ kt low-level jet. Some portions of the region, especially parts of southeast Louisiana and far southern Mississippi, may experience multiple rounds of severe storms that have a tornado risk. Regardless, a consequential damaging wind/tornado risk will regionally increase nocturnally, including the potential for strong (EF2+) tornadoes, in multiple regimes potentially including some semi-discrete near-coastal supercells as well as the more prevalent evolving quasi-linear convection that is likely to reach southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle by the predawn hours (roughly 09Z-12Z). ..Guyer/Smith.. 01/08/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0707 AM CST Mon Jan 08 2024 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of strong wind gusts and tornadoes are expected across the Gulf Coast States this afternoon through early Tuesday morning, spanning southeast Texas and southern Louisiana across southern Mississippi, southern Alabama to the western Florida Panhandle. ...Northern Texas/ArkLaTex Today... Thunderstorms erupted overnight within the warm conveyor extending across north Texas into Oklahoma/Kansas, which includes some well-organized linear structures across western north Texas/Big Country in the predawn hours. These more organized storms are elevated and occurring parallel to robustly strengthening deep-layer southwesterly winds. Severe hail potential will tend to be mitigated by a more linear convective mode, while severe-caliber wind gust potential, particularly with northward regional extent, will tend to be limited by the coolness/stability of the boundary layer. Regardless, some stronger thunderstorm wind gusts could occur through the afternoon. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 12. ...East/southeast Texas to southwest Louisiana through Evening... Secondary surface low development is expected across east Texas through the afternoon with an evolving surface triple point across east-central Texas, all while mid/upper 60s F surface dewpoints become increasingly common across southeast Texas/southwest Louisiana. Widespread cloud cover and scattered warm advection showers will initially limit solar heating, but inhibition should weaken through the afternoon as deep-layer ascent increases and gradual warming of the boundary layer supports 1200-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Scattered thunderstorms should gradually evolve/deepen as forcing for ascent increases this afternoon, coincident with strong low-level and deep-layer shear profiles sufficient for supercells and an increasing tornado/damaging wind risk. A few semi-discrete storms/supercells may develop ahead of more linearly organized storms evolving near the cold front during the afternoon and evening. A strong tornado could occur given the magnitude of the low-level shear/SRH. ...Middle Gulf Coast tonight through early Tuesday... A particularly active severe-weather scenario is expected tonight through early Tuesday across the region, spanning areas from southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama to the western Florida Panhandle. This may include multiple rounds of fast-moving severe storms, with concerns for nocturnal strong tornadoes and wind damage through the overnight hours as extremely strong low/mid-level winds influence the region in tandem with an inland developing warm/moist sector. Scattered elevated showers and thunderstorms should develop/increase and expand northeastward across today to the north of a warm front as the warm conveyor gradually refocuses eastward across the region. Some guidance suggests this convection could be fairly extensive, which will probably hinder the northward extent of richer maritime air later today/tonight, tending to focus the highest probability severe risks in coastal areas (generally within 75 miles from the Gulf of Mexico). Aided by a surface wave across the ArkLaMiss and eventually into Alabama, in the wake of the aforementioned elevated storms earlier in the day, an influx of higher theta-e will move inland tonight with an increasing potential for surface-based storms across the aforementioned coastal regions. Semi-discrete supercells capable of tornado potential may first increase tonight near the inland-advancing warm front, which will precede (to the east of) increasingly organized linear convection near the cold front/surface wave across Louisiana/Mississippi. This will be a time when deep-layer/low-level winds are dramatically strengthening, accentuated by a 70+ kt low-level jet. Some portions of the region, especially parts of southeast Louisiana and far southern Mississippi, may experience multiple rounds of severe storms that have a tornado risk. Regardless, a consequential damaging wind/tornado risk will regionally increase nocturnally, including the potential for strong (EF2+) tornadoes, in multiple regimes potentially including some semi-discrete near-coastal supercells as well as the more prevalent evolving quasi-linear convection that is likely to reach southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle by the predawn hours (roughly 09Z-12Z). ..Guyer/Smith.. 01/08/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0707 AM CST Mon Jan 08 2024 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of strong wind gusts and tornadoes are expected across the Gulf Coast States this afternoon through early Tuesday morning, spanning southeast Texas and southern Louisiana across southern Mississippi, southern Alabama to the western Florida Panhandle. ...Northern Texas/ArkLaTex Today... Thunderstorms erupted overnight within the warm conveyor extending across north Texas into Oklahoma/Kansas, which includes some well-organized linear structures across western north Texas/Big Country in the predawn hours. These more organized storms are elevated and occurring parallel to robustly strengthening deep-layer southwesterly winds. Severe hail potential will tend to be mitigated by a more linear convective mode, while severe-caliber wind gust potential, particularly with northward regional extent, will tend to be limited by the coolness/stability of the boundary layer. Regardless, some stronger thunderstorm wind gusts could occur through the afternoon. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 12. ...East/southeast Texas to southwest Louisiana through Evening... Secondary surface low development is expected across east Texas through the afternoon with an evolving surface triple point across east-central Texas, all while mid/upper 60s F surface dewpoints become increasingly common across southeast Texas/southwest Louisiana. Widespread cloud cover and scattered warm advection showers will initially limit solar heating, but inhibition should weaken through the afternoon as deep-layer ascent increases and gradual warming of the boundary layer supports 1200-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Scattered thunderstorms should gradually evolve/deepen as forcing for ascent increases this afternoon, coincident with strong low-level and deep-layer shear profiles sufficient for supercells and an increasing tornado/damaging wind risk. A few semi-discrete storms/supercells may develop ahead of more linearly organized storms evolving near the cold front during the afternoon and evening. A strong tornado could occur given the magnitude of the low-level shear/SRH. ...Middle Gulf Coast tonight through early Tuesday... A particularly active severe-weather scenario is expected tonight through early Tuesday across the region, spanning areas from southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama to the western Florida Panhandle. This may include multiple rounds of fast-moving severe storms, with concerns for nocturnal strong tornadoes and wind damage through the overnight hours as extremely strong low/mid-level winds influence the region in tandem with an inland developing warm/moist sector. Scattered elevated showers and thunderstorms should develop/increase and expand northeastward across today to the north of a warm front as the warm conveyor gradually refocuses eastward across the region. Some guidance suggests this convection could be fairly extensive, which will probably hinder the northward extent of richer maritime air later today/tonight, tending to focus the highest probability severe risks in coastal areas (generally within 75 miles from the Gulf of Mexico). Aided by a surface wave across the ArkLaMiss and eventually into Alabama, in the wake of the aforementioned elevated storms earlier in the day, an influx of higher theta-e will move inland tonight with an increasing potential for surface-based storms across the aforementioned coastal regions. Semi-discrete supercells capable of tornado potential may first increase tonight near the inland-advancing warm front, which will precede (to the east of) increasingly organized linear convection near the cold front/surface wave across Louisiana/Mississippi. This will be a time when deep-layer/low-level winds are dramatically strengthening, accentuated by a 70+ kt low-level jet. Some portions of the region, especially parts of southeast Louisiana and far southern Mississippi, may experience multiple rounds of severe storms that have a tornado risk. Regardless, a consequential damaging wind/tornado risk will regionally increase nocturnally, including the potential for strong (EF2+) tornadoes, in multiple regimes potentially including some semi-discrete near-coastal supercells as well as the more prevalent evolving quasi-linear convection that is likely to reach southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle by the predawn hours (roughly 09Z-12Z). ..Guyer/Smith.. 01/08/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0707 AM CST Mon Jan 08 2024 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of strong wind gusts and tornadoes are expected across the Gulf Coast States this afternoon through early Tuesday morning, spanning southeast Texas and southern Louisiana across southern Mississippi, southern Alabama to the western Florida Panhandle. ...Northern Texas/ArkLaTex Today... Thunderstorms erupted overnight within the warm conveyor extending across north Texas into Oklahoma/Kansas, which includes some well-organized linear structures across western north Texas/Big Country in the predawn hours. These more organized storms are elevated and occurring parallel to robustly strengthening deep-layer southwesterly winds. Severe hail potential will tend to be mitigated by a more linear convective mode, while severe-caliber wind gust potential, particularly with northward regional extent, will tend to be limited by the coolness/stability of the boundary layer. Regardless, some stronger thunderstorm wind gusts could occur through the afternoon. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 12. ...East/southeast Texas to southwest Louisiana through Evening... Secondary surface low development is expected across east Texas through the afternoon with an evolving surface triple point across east-central Texas, all while mid/upper 60s F surface dewpoints become increasingly common across southeast Texas/southwest Louisiana. Widespread cloud cover and scattered warm advection showers will initially limit solar heating, but inhibition should weaken through the afternoon as deep-layer ascent increases and gradual warming of the boundary layer supports 1200-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Scattered thunderstorms should gradually evolve/deepen as forcing for ascent increases this afternoon, coincident with strong low-level and deep-layer shear profiles sufficient for supercells and an increasing tornado/damaging wind risk. A few semi-discrete storms/supercells may develop ahead of more linearly organized storms evolving near the cold front during the afternoon and evening. A strong tornado could occur given the magnitude of the low-level shear/SRH. ...Middle Gulf Coast tonight through early Tuesday... A particularly active severe-weather scenario is expected tonight through early Tuesday across the region, spanning areas from southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama to the western Florida Panhandle. This may include multiple rounds of fast-moving severe storms, with concerns for nocturnal strong tornadoes and wind damage through the overnight hours as extremely strong low/mid-level winds influence the region in tandem with an inland developing warm/moist sector. Scattered elevated showers and thunderstorms should develop/increase and expand northeastward across today to the north of a warm front as the warm conveyor gradually refocuses eastward across the region. Some guidance suggests this convection could be fairly extensive, which will probably hinder the northward extent of richer maritime air later today/tonight, tending to focus the highest probability severe risks in coastal areas (generally within 75 miles from the Gulf of Mexico). Aided by a surface wave across the ArkLaMiss and eventually into Alabama, in the wake of the aforementioned elevated storms earlier in the day, an influx of higher theta-e will move inland tonight with an increasing potential for surface-based storms across the aforementioned coastal regions. Semi-discrete supercells capable of tornado potential may first increase tonight near the inland-advancing warm front, which will precede (to the east of) increasingly organized linear convection near the cold front/surface wave across Louisiana/Mississippi. This will be a time when deep-layer/low-level winds are dramatically strengthening, accentuated by a 70+ kt low-level jet. Some portions of the region, especially parts of southeast Louisiana and far southern Mississippi, may experience multiple rounds of severe storms that have a tornado risk. Regardless, a consequential damaging wind/tornado risk will regionally increase nocturnally, including the potential for strong (EF2+) tornadoes, in multiple regimes potentially including some semi-discrete near-coastal supercells as well as the more prevalent evolving quasi-linear convection that is likely to reach southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle by the predawn hours (roughly 09Z-12Z). ..Guyer/Smith.. 01/08/2024 Read more View the full article

Wind Advisory issued January 08 at 8:03AM EST until January 09 at 10:00PM EST by NWSView the full article

MD 0012 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTH TX Mesoscale Discussion 0012 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 AM CST Mon Jan 08 2024 Areas affected...north TX Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 081259Z - 081530Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A developing squall line over western north TX will continue eastward across north TX this morning. The risk for a strong gust is likely very low. DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a developing squall line from near San Angelo northeastward to Wichita Falls. The squall line is currently projected via linear extrapolation to move into the western suburbs of the DFW Metroplex around 11am CST (17 UTC). Surface analysis indicates relatively cool temperatures (near 50 deg F) over north TX within a strong low-level warm-air advection regime. The 12 UTC Fort Worth raob showed 500 J/kg MUCAPE with a cool/stable layer below 850 mb. Additional temperature/moisture advection will gradually warm/moisten the lowest 0.5 km AGL, but overcast skies and showers preceding the squall line will limit heating this morning. As a result, the propensity for surface-based instability will probably be negated and the squall line will likely remain elevated. Given this expectation, the risk for strong gusts will be low in association with the passage of the squall line and a severe thunderstorm watch will likely not be needed. ..Smith/Guyer.. 01/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT... LAT...LON 33319861 33559678 33379642 33049634 32599641 32269669 32029897 32359912 32719906 33319861 Read more View the full article

High Wind Warning issued January 08 at 6:50AM EST until January 09 at 7:00PM EST by NWSView the full article

Wind Advisory issued January 08 at 6:50AM EST until January 09 at 7:00PM EST by NWSView the full article

Wind Advisory issued January 08 at 6:50AM EST until January 10 at 7:00AM EST by NWSView the full article

High Wind Watch issued January 08 at 6:40AM EST until January 09 at 10:00PM EST by NWSView the full article

Wind Advisory issued January 08 at 6:40AM EST until January 09 at 10:00PM EST by NWSView the full article

MD 0011 CONCERNING BLIZZARD FOR SOUTHEAST CO...RATON MESA OF NORTHEAST NM...FAR WESTERN KS Mesoscale Discussion 0011 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0527 AM CST Mon Jan 08 2024 Areas affected...Southeast CO...Raton Mesa of northeast NM...far western KS Concerning...Blizzard Valid 081127Z - 081730Z SUMMARY...Heavy snowfall rates around 1 inch per hour are expected to begin between 13-15 UTC on a localized basis. Surface gusts will rapidly increase this morning (into the 35-60 mph range) and coincide with more widespread 1 inch per hour snowfall rates. These conditions will lead to substantially reduced visibilities and result in blizzard conditions beginning during the late morning (15-18 UTC). DISCUSSION...Water-vapor imagery shows a powerful mid-level shortwave trough moving east across the Sangre de Cristos early this morning. Deep-layer forcing for ascent will continue to overspread the central High Plains as the column saturates early this morning. Light to moderate snow will transition to localized heavy snow (i.e., rates around 1 inch per hour) beginning in the 13-15 UTC period according to the latest SREF and HREF model guidance. Heavy snowfall rates of around 1 inch per hour will become widespread during the 15-18 UTC period as both upslope flow strengthens south of the Arkansas River and deep-layer ascent associated with the cyclone intensifies. Low-level flow is forecast to intensify markedly during the morning with 250 m AGL flow increasing from less than 10 kt to 50 kt while contributing to very strong gusts and substantially reduced visibilities. The strengthening of surface gusts into the 35-60 mph range is expected to coincide with the onset of more widespread 1 inch per hour snowfall rates and result in blizzard conditions during the 15-18 UTC period. ..Smith.. 01/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...ABQ... LAT...LON 38710125 38340135 37440205 37040272 36740375 36740440 36970460 37230463 37630451 37800420 37730384 37760298 38130244 38770186 38970153 38880133 38710125 Read more View the full article

High Wind Warning issued January 08 at 5:30AM EST until January 09 at 7:00PM EST by NWSView the full article

Wind Advisory issued January 08 at 5:30AM EST until January 09 at 7:00PM EST by NWSView the full article

Wind Advisory issued January 08 at 5:30AM EST until January 10 at 7:00AM EST by NWSView the full article

Flood Watch issued January 08 at 4:57AM EST until January 09 at 7:00PM EST by NWSView the full article

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CST Mon Jan 08 2024 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... The latest medium-range guidance (including the ECENS/GEFS and ECMWF/GFS) appear similar with the depiction of the evolving pattern late this week. Of particular note, one vigorous short wave impulse (emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific, before digging inland across the Pacific coast into the Great Basin by early Thursday) is forecast to continue digging across the southern Rockies and Southwestern international border vicinity during the day Thursday, before rapidly pivoting across the southern Great Plains/lower Mississippi Valley through the upper Ohio Valley/lower Great Lakes by 12Z Saturday. As it does, there appears increasing consensus that it will support strong surface cyclogenesis across the Mid South through lower Great Lakes vicinity late Thursday night through Friday evening. Latest guidance indicates that this will be accompanied by sufficient low-level moisture return off the Gulf of Mexico to support a destabilizing warm sector across parts of eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley late Thursday through Thursday night, aided by strengthening mid/upper forcing for ascent. Coupled with intensifying wind fields and shear, this is expected to support the initiation of severe thunderstorm development, which seems likely to organize and be maintained within the swath of mid/upper support overspreading much of the Gulf through southern Atlantic Coast states by Friday night. This may be accompanied by a swath of strong, damaging winds and the risk for tornadoes. Read more View the full article

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CST Mon Jan 08 2024 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... The latest medium-range guidance (including the ECENS/GEFS and ECMWF/GFS) appear similar with the depiction of the evolving pattern late this week. Of particular note, one vigorous short wave impulse (emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific, before digging inland across the Pacific coast into the Great Basin by early Thursday) is forecast to continue digging across the southern Rockies and Southwestern international border vicinity during the day Thursday, before rapidly pivoting across the southern Great Plains/lower Mississippi Valley through the upper Ohio Valley/lower Great Lakes by 12Z Saturday. As it does, there appears increasing consensus that it will support strong surface cyclogenesis across the Mid South through lower Great Lakes vicinity late Thursday night through Friday evening. Latest guidance indicates that this will be accompanied by sufficient low-level moisture return off the Gulf of Mexico to support a destabilizing warm sector across parts of eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley late Thursday through Thursday night, aided by strengthening mid/upper forcing for ascent. Coupled with intensifying wind fields and shear, this is expected to support the initiation of severe thunderstorm development, which seems likely to organize and be maintained within the swath of mid/upper support overspreading much of the Gulf through southern Atlantic Coast states by Friday night. This may be accompanied by a swath of strong, damaging winds and the risk for tornadoes. Read more View the full article

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CST Mon Jan 08 2024 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... The latest medium-range guidance (including the ECENS/GEFS and ECMWF/GFS) appear similar with the depiction of the evolving pattern late this week. Of particular note, one vigorous short wave impulse (emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific, before digging inland across the Pacific coast into the Great Basin by early Thursday) is forecast to continue digging across the southern Rockies and Southwestern international border vicinity during the day Thursday, before rapidly pivoting across the southern Great Plains/lower Mississippi Valley through the upper Ohio Valley/lower Great Lakes by 12Z Saturday. As it does, there appears increasing consensus that it will support strong surface cyclogenesis across the Mid South through lower Great Lakes vicinity late Thursday night through Friday evening. Latest guidance indicates that this will be accompanied by sufficient low-level moisture return off the Gulf of Mexico to support a destabilizing warm sector across parts of eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley late Thursday through Thursday night, aided by strengthening mid/upper forcing for ascent. Coupled with intensifying wind fields and shear, this is expected to support the initiation of severe thunderstorm development, which seems likely to organize and be maintained within the swath of mid/upper support overspreading much of the Gulf through southern Atlantic Coast states by Friday night. This may be accompanied by a swath of strong, damaging winds and the risk for tornadoes. Read more View the full article

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CST Mon Jan 08 2024 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... The latest medium-range guidance (including the ECENS/GEFS and ECMWF/GFS) appear similar with the depiction of the evolving pattern late this week. Of particular note, one vigorous short wave impulse (emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific, before digging inland across the Pacific coast into the Great Basin by early Thursday) is forecast to continue digging across the southern Rockies and Southwestern international border vicinity during the day Thursday, before rapidly pivoting across the southern Great Plains/lower Mississippi Valley through the upper Ohio Valley/lower Great Lakes by 12Z Saturday. As it does, there appears increasing consensus that it will support strong surface cyclogenesis across the Mid South through lower Great Lakes vicinity late Thursday night through Friday evening. Latest guidance indicates that this will be accompanied by sufficient low-level moisture return off the Gulf of Mexico to support a destabilizing warm sector across parts of eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley late Thursday through Thursday night, aided by strengthening mid/upper forcing for ascent. Coupled with intensifying wind fields and shear, this is expected to support the initiation of severe thunderstorm development, which seems likely to organize and be maintained within the swath of mid/upper support overspreading much of the Gulf through southern Atlantic Coast states by Friday night. This may be accompanied by a swath of strong, damaging winds and the risk for tornadoes. Read more View the full article

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CST Mon Jan 08 2024 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... The latest medium-range guidance (including the ECENS/GEFS and ECMWF/GFS) appear similar with the depiction of the evolving pattern late this week. Of particular note, one vigorous short wave impulse (emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific, before digging inland across the Pacific coast into the Great Basin by early Thursday) is forecast to continue digging across the southern Rockies and Southwestern international border vicinity during the day Thursday, before rapidly pivoting across the southern Great Plains/lower Mississippi Valley through the upper Ohio Valley/lower Great Lakes by 12Z Saturday. As it does, there appears increasing consensus that it will support strong surface cyclogenesis across the Mid South through lower Great Lakes vicinity late Thursday night through Friday evening. Latest guidance indicates that this will be accompanied by sufficient low-level moisture return off the Gulf of Mexico to support a destabilizing warm sector across parts of eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley late Thursday through Thursday night, aided by strengthening mid/upper forcing for ascent. Coupled with intensifying wind fields and shear, this is expected to support the initiation of severe thunderstorm development, which seems likely to organize and be maintained within the swath of mid/upper support overspreading much of the Gulf through southern Atlantic Coast states by Friday night. This may be accompanied by a swath of strong, damaging winds and the risk for tornadoes. Read more View the full article

Wind Advisory issued January 08 at 4:14AM EST until January 09 at 1:00PM EST by NWSView the full article

Wind Advisory issued January 08 at 4:14AM EST until January 09 at 5:00PM EST by NWSView the full article

Wind Advisory issued January 08 at 4:14AM EST until January 09 at 5:00PM EST by NWSView the full article