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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTH FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms may impact parts of the Florida Peninsula today, with a threat for isolated damaging winds and/or a tornado. A line of thunderstorms across southern Florida may continue to pose some threat for damaging wind gusts or a tornado or two through the afternoon and early evening before moving offshore. The greatest potential for isolated damaging wind gusts will likely be associated with the more progressive line segment oriented northeast to southwest. In addition, occasional low-level rotation has been observed with low-topped supercells ahead of this line. The AMX VWP shows a wind profile which should be sufficient for some tornado potential, but the lack of stronger forcing and more robust updraft development should mitigate the tornado threat. ..Bentley.. 01/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024/ ...South FL... Morning surface analysis shows a low over the western Carolinas, with a cold front extending southward across SC into north FL. Widespread showers and occasional thunderstorms are occurring ahead of the cold front over central/south FL, with several cells showing transient supercell and bowing structures southwest of Tampa Bay over the past 1-2 hours. The air mass ahead of these storms is quite moist with dewpoints in the lower 70s, but widespread clouds and precip immediately ahead of the cells is limiting destabilization. Shear profiles are strong, and therefore will maintain the SLGT risk for isolated tornadoes or damaging wind gusts over parts of south FL this afternoon. Refer to MCD #5 for further short-term details. ...NC Coast this afternoon... Model guidance continues to suggest that cyclogenesis will take place over central NC, with strengthening low-level shear values ahead of the associated cold front. Present indications are that a few strong storms may affect the near-shore waters along the NC coast, but greater moisture and surface-based instability is expected to remain offshore. Read more View the full article

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 PM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. Elevated to critical meteorological conditions remain possible in parts of southern New Mexico into the Trans-Pecos, but unreceptive fuels are not expected to support more than local concerns. ..Wendt.. 01/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... Strong mid-level flow will persist across the eastern CONUS as a shortwave trough and widespread winter precipitation develop along the Atlantic Coast. At the same time, a second trough is forecast to rapidly deepen over parts of the western US before ejecting eastward over the southern Plains. In response, a strong lee low will develop, supporting gusty winds across parts of West TX. However, cool temperatures and widespread recent precipitation should limit fire-weather concerns. ...Texas Trans Pecos... A strong lee low is forecast to develop over West TX and southern NM as the main upper trough deepens across the southern Rockies D2/Sunday. Gusty southwesterly surface winds are expected to intensify as the low continues to strengthen. Gusts may reach 20-30 mph at times across parts of the TX Trans Pecos and southern NM. Dry conditions with RH values below 20% may also allow for some meteorological critical conditions to develop through the afternoon. However, area fuels are not receptive after precipitation and colder temperatures over the preceding weeks. This suggests any fire-weather potential that does develop should remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 PM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. Elevated to critical meteorological conditions remain possible in parts of southern New Mexico into the Trans-Pecos, but unreceptive fuels are not expected to support more than local concerns. ..Wendt.. 01/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... Strong mid-level flow will persist across the eastern CONUS as a shortwave trough and widespread winter precipitation develop along the Atlantic Coast. At the same time, a second trough is forecast to rapidly deepen over parts of the western US before ejecting eastward over the southern Plains. In response, a strong lee low will develop, supporting gusty winds across parts of West TX. However, cool temperatures and widespread recent precipitation should limit fire-weather concerns. ...Texas Trans Pecos... A strong lee low is forecast to develop over West TX and southern NM as the main upper trough deepens across the southern Rockies D2/Sunday. Gusty southwesterly surface winds are expected to intensify as the low continues to strengthen. Gusts may reach 20-30 mph at times across parts of the TX Trans Pecos and southern NM. Dry conditions with RH values below 20% may also allow for some meteorological critical conditions to develop through the afternoon. However, area fuels are not receptive after precipitation and colder temperatures over the preceding weeks. This suggests any fire-weather potential that does develop should remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 PM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. Elevated to critical meteorological conditions remain possible in parts of southern New Mexico into the Trans-Pecos, but unreceptive fuels are not expected to support more than local concerns. ..Wendt.. 01/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... Strong mid-level flow will persist across the eastern CONUS as a shortwave trough and widespread winter precipitation develop along the Atlantic Coast. At the same time, a second trough is forecast to rapidly deepen over parts of the western US before ejecting eastward over the southern Plains. In response, a strong lee low will develop, supporting gusty winds across parts of West TX. However, cool temperatures and widespread recent precipitation should limit fire-weather concerns. ...Texas Trans Pecos... A strong lee low is forecast to develop over West TX and southern NM as the main upper trough deepens across the southern Rockies D2/Sunday. Gusty southwesterly surface winds are expected to intensify as the low continues to strengthen. Gusts may reach 20-30 mph at times across parts of the TX Trans Pecos and southern NM. Dry conditions with RH values below 20% may also allow for some meteorological critical conditions to develop through the afternoon. However, area fuels are not receptive after precipitation and colder temperatures over the preceding weeks. This suggests any fire-weather potential that does develop should remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across South Florida Sunday, across the Southwest Sunday afternoon/evening and across the southern Plains late Sunday night. ...Synopsis... An active surface pattern will be present across the CONUS tomorrow with a rapidly deepening surface low off the New England Coast and another deepening cyclone in the southern High Plains. A continental airmass in between these two systems will keep moisture mostly offshore and limit thunderstorm potential for areas east of the Mississippi except for far southern Florida. In this region, a few thunderstorms are possible along the surface front, but likely will not be severe due to weak lapse rates, front parallel flow, and building heights. As a surface cyclone deepens and moves into the southern High Plains Sunday afternoon/evening, a strong low-level jet will develop and begin return flow aloft. This, combined with cooling temperatures aloft ahead of the deepening wave may result in enough elevated instability for some thunderstorms between 06Z and 12Z from southern Kansas across western Oklahoma and into north Texas. Elsewhere, a few thunderstorms are possible beneath the upper-low across mostly Arizona and also across southeast Texas late in the period as isentropic ascent strengthens and moisture return off the Gulf increases. ..Bentley.. 01/06/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across South Florida Sunday, across the Southwest Sunday afternoon/evening and across the southern Plains late Sunday night. ...Synopsis... An active surface pattern will be present across the CONUS tomorrow with a rapidly deepening surface low off the New England Coast and another deepening cyclone in the southern High Plains. A continental airmass in between these two systems will keep moisture mostly offshore and limit thunderstorm potential for areas east of the Mississippi except for far southern Florida. In this region, a few thunderstorms are possible along the surface front, but likely will not be severe due to weak lapse rates, front parallel flow, and building heights. As a surface cyclone deepens and moves into the southern High Plains Sunday afternoon/evening, a strong low-level jet will develop and begin return flow aloft. This, combined with cooling temperatures aloft ahead of the deepening wave may result in enough elevated instability for some thunderstorms between 06Z and 12Z from southern Kansas across western Oklahoma and into north Texas. Elsewhere, a few thunderstorms are possible beneath the upper-low across mostly Arizona and also across southeast Texas late in the period as isentropic ascent strengthens and moisture return off the Gulf increases. ..Bentley.. 01/06/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across South Florida Sunday, across the Southwest Sunday afternoon/evening and across the southern Plains late Sunday night. ...Synopsis... An active surface pattern will be present across the CONUS tomorrow with a rapidly deepening surface low off the New England Coast and another deepening cyclone in the southern High Plains. A continental airmass in between these two systems will keep moisture mostly offshore and limit thunderstorm potential for areas east of the Mississippi except for far southern Florida. In this region, a few thunderstorms are possible along the surface front, but likely will not be severe due to weak lapse rates, front parallel flow, and building heights. As a surface cyclone deepens and moves into the southern High Plains Sunday afternoon/evening, a strong low-level jet will develop and begin return flow aloft. This, combined with cooling temperatures aloft ahead of the deepening wave may result in enough elevated instability for some thunderstorms between 06Z and 12Z from southern Kansas across western Oklahoma and into north Texas. Elsewhere, a few thunderstorms are possible beneath the upper-low across mostly Arizona and also across southeast Texas late in the period as isentropic ascent strengthens and moisture return off the Gulf increases. ..Bentley.. 01/06/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across South Florida Sunday, across the Southwest Sunday afternoon/evening and across the southern Plains late Sunday night. ...Synopsis... An active surface pattern will be present across the CONUS tomorrow with a rapidly deepening surface low off the New England Coast and another deepening cyclone in the southern High Plains. A continental airmass in between these two systems will keep moisture mostly offshore and limit thunderstorm potential for areas east of the Mississippi except for far southern Florida. In this region, a few thunderstorms are possible along the surface front, but likely will not be severe due to weak lapse rates, front parallel flow, and building heights. As a surface cyclone deepens and moves into the southern High Plains Sunday afternoon/evening, a strong low-level jet will develop and begin return flow aloft. This, combined with cooling temperatures aloft ahead of the deepening wave may result in enough elevated instability for some thunderstorms between 06Z and 12Z from southern Kansas across western Oklahoma and into north Texas. Elsewhere, a few thunderstorms are possible beneath the upper-low across mostly Arizona and also across southeast Texas late in the period as isentropic ascent strengthens and moisture return off the Gulf increases. ..Bentley.. 01/06/2024 Read more View the full article

MD 0006 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PA...EASTERN WV PANHANDLE...WESTERN/CENTRAL MD...FAR NORTHERN VA Mesoscale Discussion 0006 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1047 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Areas affected...Central/Southern PA...Eastern WV Panhandle...Western/Central MD...Far Northern VA Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 061647Z - 062145Z SUMMARY...Snowfall rates are expected to increase across the region over the next several hours. Rates around 1"/hr are likely across much of the area, with localized 2"/hr rate possible, particularly across south-central PA. DISCUSSION...Recent satellite imagery shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough over eastern TN, moving quickly northeastward. Regional radar imagery shows a large area of precipitation across the Mid-Atlantic and into southern portions of the Northeast, within the warm conveyor preceding this shortwave. Attendant low-level flow is forecast to strengthen over the next several hours as the shortwave continues northeastward. Additionally, the attendant surface low, which is currently over south-central NC, is expected to deepen over the next few hours as it moves northeastward across central NC and southeast VA. These factors will result in an area of strong low-level frontogenesis over VA, with associated lift focused into central/southern PA, the eastern WV Panhandle, western/central MD, and far northern VA. Most of this area is currently experiencing moderate snow, but snowfall rates are expected to increase over the next few hours as the evolution described above occurs. Rates around 1"/hr are likely across much of the area, with some areas experiencing 2"/hr, particularly south-central PA where banding appears most likely. Highest rates are expected to be centered around 20Z, with rates then likely diminishing over this area as the shortwave continues northeastward. ..Mosier.. 01/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX... LAT...LON 39638023 40407968 41007844 41017668 40397599 39607652 38947765 38657885 38988003 39638023 Read more View the full article

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... Across the eastern US, a shortwave trough is forecast to gradually de-amplify within strong southwesterly flow aloft as it approaches the Atlantic Coast. An accompanying surface low will move across the Mid Atlantic and offshore bringing widespread precipitation the Northeast States. To the West, a second trough will approach the Pacific Coast supporting broad onshore flow over the Pacific Northwest. Widespread precipitation is forecast to develop over the West while a cool post-frontal air mass will reside over the central US. Outside of locally breezy winds across parts of the far southern Plains, dry and windy conditions are limited, and fire-weather concerns are low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... Across the eastern US, a shortwave trough is forecast to gradually de-amplify within strong southwesterly flow aloft as it approaches the Atlantic Coast. An accompanying surface low will move across the Mid Atlantic and offshore bringing widespread precipitation the Northeast States. To the West, a second trough will approach the Pacific Coast supporting broad onshore flow over the Pacific Northwest. Widespread precipitation is forecast to develop over the West while a cool post-frontal air mass will reside over the central US. Outside of locally breezy winds across parts of the far southern Plains, dry and windy conditions are limited, and fire-weather concerns are low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... Across the eastern US, a shortwave trough is forecast to gradually de-amplify within strong southwesterly flow aloft as it approaches the Atlantic Coast. An accompanying surface low will move across the Mid Atlantic and offshore bringing widespread precipitation the Northeast States. To the West, a second trough will approach the Pacific Coast supporting broad onshore flow over the Pacific Northwest. Widespread precipitation is forecast to develop over the West while a cool post-frontal air mass will reside over the central US. Outside of locally breezy winds across parts of the far southern Plains, dry and windy conditions are limited, and fire-weather concerns are low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1014 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON.... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms may impact parts of the Florida Peninsula today, with a threat for isolated damaging winds and/or a tornado. ...South FL... Morning surface analysis shows a low over the western Carolinas, with a cold front extending southward across SC into north FL. Widespread showers and occasional thunderstorms are occurring ahead of the cold front over central/south FL, with several cells showing transient supercell and bowing structures southwest of Tampa Bay over the past 1-2 hours. The air mass ahead of these storms is quite moist with dewpoints in the lower 70s, but widespread clouds and precip immediately ahead of the cells is limiting destabilization. Shear profiles are strong, and therefore will maintain the SLGT risk for isolated tornadoes or damaging wind gusts over parts of south FL this afternoon. Refer to MCD #5 for further short-term details. ...NC Coast this afternoon... Model guidance continues to suggest that cyclogenesis will take place over central NC, with strengthening low-level shear values ahead of the associated cold front. Present indications are that a few strong storms may affect the near-shore waters along the NC coast, but greater moisture and surface-based instability is expected to remain offshore. ..Hart/Mosier.. 01/06/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1014 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON.... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms may impact parts of the Florida Peninsula today, with a threat for isolated damaging winds and/or a tornado. ...South FL... Morning surface analysis shows a low over the western Carolinas, with a cold front extending southward across SC into north FL. Widespread showers and occasional thunderstorms are occurring ahead of the cold front over central/south FL, with several cells showing transient supercell and bowing structures southwest of Tampa Bay over the past 1-2 hours. The air mass ahead of these storms is quite moist with dewpoints in the lower 70s, but widespread clouds and precip immediately ahead of the cells is limiting destabilization. Shear profiles are strong, and therefore will maintain the SLGT risk for isolated tornadoes or damaging wind gusts over parts of south FL this afternoon. Refer to MCD #5 for further short-term details. ...NC Coast this afternoon... Model guidance continues to suggest that cyclogenesis will take place over central NC, with strengthening low-level shear values ahead of the associated cold front. Present indications are that a few strong storms may affect the near-shore waters along the NC coast, but greater moisture and surface-based instability is expected to remain offshore. ..Hart/Mosier.. 01/06/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1014 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON.... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms may impact parts of the Florida Peninsula today, with a threat for isolated damaging winds and/or a tornado. ...South FL... Morning surface analysis shows a low over the western Carolinas, with a cold front extending southward across SC into north FL. Widespread showers and occasional thunderstorms are occurring ahead of the cold front over central/south FL, with several cells showing transient supercell and bowing structures southwest of Tampa Bay over the past 1-2 hours. The air mass ahead of these storms is quite moist with dewpoints in the lower 70s, but widespread clouds and precip immediately ahead of the cells is limiting destabilization. Shear profiles are strong, and therefore will maintain the SLGT risk for isolated tornadoes or damaging wind gusts over parts of south FL this afternoon. Refer to MCD #5 for further short-term details. ...NC Coast this afternoon... Model guidance continues to suggest that cyclogenesis will take place over central NC, with strengthening low-level shear values ahead of the associated cold front. Present indications are that a few strong storms may affect the near-shore waters along the NC coast, but greater moisture and surface-based instability is expected to remain offshore. ..Hart/Mosier.. 01/06/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1014 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON.... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms may impact parts of the Florida Peninsula today, with a threat for isolated damaging winds and/or a tornado. ...South FL... Morning surface analysis shows a low over the western Carolinas, with a cold front extending southward across SC into north FL. Widespread showers and occasional thunderstorms are occurring ahead of the cold front over central/south FL, with several cells showing transient supercell and bowing structures southwest of Tampa Bay over the past 1-2 hours. The air mass ahead of these storms is quite moist with dewpoints in the lower 70s, but widespread clouds and precip immediately ahead of the cells is limiting destabilization. Shear profiles are strong, and therefore will maintain the SLGT risk for isolated tornadoes or damaging wind gusts over parts of south FL this afternoon. Refer to MCD #5 for further short-term details. ...NC Coast this afternoon... Model guidance continues to suggest that cyclogenesis will take place over central NC, with strengthening low-level shear values ahead of the associated cold front. Present indications are that a few strong storms may affect the near-shore waters along the NC coast, but greater moisture and surface-based instability is expected to remain offshore. ..Hart/Mosier.. 01/06/2024 Read more View the full article

MD 0005 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTH FL Mesoscale Discussion 0005 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0951 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Areas affected...Parts of central/south FL Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 061551Z - 061715Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Some threat for a couple tornadoes and locally damaging wind may develop from late morning into early afternoon. DISCUSSION...At 1545 UTC, organized convection is approaching parts of the central/southern FL Gulf Coast from the Gulf of Mexico. Morning observed soundings from KTBW and KMFL depicted only very weak buoyancy, and substantial cloudiness and precipitation in advance of the stronger storms will continue to limit destabilization across much of the peninsula. However, some modest heating/destabilization will be possible to the south of the more extensive precipitation, where temperatures are currently rising into the mid 70s F. Wind profiles (as noted on the TBW sounding and preconvective VWPs from KTBW) remain quite favorable for organized convection, with enlarged low-level hodographs (0-1 km SRH of 200-400 m2/s2) supporting a conditional tornado threat if any supercells and/or line-embedded mesovortices can be sustained inland later this morning into the early afternoon. Later this afternoon, low-level flow will begin to veer and weaken as the primary midlevel shortwave trough and surface low move quickly northeastward away from the region. However, there may be a period of time late this morning into the early afternoon where organized convection will pose a threat of a couple tornadoes and locally damaging wind. Watch issuance is possible depending on short-term trends regarding destabilization and storm organization. ..Dean/Hart.. 01/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW... LAT...LON 27388248 27838228 27728099 27128048 26418052 26028075 25928095 25878135 26048197 26338224 26478236 26618254 26938255 27388248 Read more View the full article

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Jan 6 15:31:02 UTC 2024.View the full article

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may impact parts of the Florida Peninsula today, with a threat for isolated damaging winds and a tornado risk. ...Florida... Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing early this morning over the eastern Gulf of Mexico into parts of the Florida Peninsula in advance of a cold front/surface wave over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The strongest and most organized storms are ongoing offshore, roughly near/south of the Tampa Bay vicinity. This convection will gradually move inland as low-level moistening continues to occur today. Preceding cloud cover and stratiform precipitation should hinder lapse rates and overall heating, and may also hinder updraft parcel accelerations with storms as they cross the Peninsula. It is otherwise notable that low-level shear/SRH will continue to strengthen this morning through midday, before low-level winds tend to veer/weaken later in the day. The potential for isolated damaging winds and a tornado risk will exist as storms move onshore, with a somewhat higher/more focused potential seemingly existing across parts of the west-central/southwest Peninsula through early afternoon. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 4. ...Coastal Carolinas... Low/mid-level winds will notably strengthen over the region today in conjunction with the northeastward-ejecting shortwave trough. Modest low-level moisture advection will occur, with low 60s F dewpoints common ahead of the surface low. Widespread clouds and precipitation will preclude diabatic heating, limiting overall instability. Forecast soundings show very strong shear with large, looping hodographs, conditionally favorable for organized storms including supercells, buoyancy permitting. However, surface-based destabilization is likely to remain focused over the Atlantic Ocean, with little inland progress except perhaps along the coast and Outer Banks. Still, convectively enhanced wind gusts are plausible across the region, although the potential for severe-caliber wind gusts currently appears low. ..Guyer/Smith.. 01/06/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may impact parts of the Florida Peninsula today, with a threat for isolated damaging winds and a tornado risk. ...Florida... Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing early this morning over the eastern Gulf of Mexico into parts of the Florida Peninsula in advance of a cold front/surface wave over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The strongest and most organized storms are ongoing offshore, roughly near/south of the Tampa Bay vicinity. This convection will gradually move inland as low-level moistening continues to occur today. Preceding cloud cover and stratiform precipitation should hinder lapse rates and overall heating, and may also hinder updraft parcel accelerations with storms as they cross the Peninsula. It is otherwise notable that low-level shear/SRH will continue to strengthen this morning through midday, before low-level winds tend to veer/weaken later in the day. The potential for isolated damaging winds and a tornado risk will exist as storms move onshore, with a somewhat higher/more focused potential seemingly existing across parts of the west-central/southwest Peninsula through early afternoon. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 4. ...Coastal Carolinas... Low/mid-level winds will notably strengthen over the region today in conjunction with the northeastward-ejecting shortwave trough. Modest low-level moisture advection will occur, with low 60s F dewpoints common ahead of the surface low. Widespread clouds and precipitation will preclude diabatic heating, limiting overall instability. Forecast soundings show very strong shear with large, looping hodographs, conditionally favorable for organized storms including supercells, buoyancy permitting. However, surface-based destabilization is likely to remain focused over the Atlantic Ocean, with little inland progress except perhaps along the coast and Outer Banks. Still, convectively enhanced wind gusts are plausible across the region, although the potential for severe-caliber wind gusts currently appears low. ..Guyer/Smith.. 01/06/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may impact parts of the Florida Peninsula today, with a threat for isolated damaging winds and a tornado risk. ...Florida... Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing early this morning over the eastern Gulf of Mexico into parts of the Florida Peninsula in advance of a cold front/surface wave over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The strongest and most organized storms are ongoing offshore, roughly near/south of the Tampa Bay vicinity. This convection will gradually move inland as low-level moistening continues to occur today. Preceding cloud cover and stratiform precipitation should hinder lapse rates and overall heating, and may also hinder updraft parcel accelerations with storms as they cross the Peninsula. It is otherwise notable that low-level shear/SRH will continue to strengthen this morning through midday, before low-level winds tend to veer/weaken later in the day. The potential for isolated damaging winds and a tornado risk will exist as storms move onshore, with a somewhat higher/more focused potential seemingly existing across parts of the west-central/southwest Peninsula through early afternoon. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 4. ...Coastal Carolinas... Low/mid-level winds will notably strengthen over the region today in conjunction with the northeastward-ejecting shortwave trough. Modest low-level moisture advection will occur, with low 60s F dewpoints common ahead of the surface low. Widespread clouds and precipitation will preclude diabatic heating, limiting overall instability. Forecast soundings show very strong shear with large, looping hodographs, conditionally favorable for organized storms including supercells, buoyancy permitting. However, surface-based destabilization is likely to remain focused over the Atlantic Ocean, with little inland progress except perhaps along the coast and Outer Banks. Still, convectively enhanced wind gusts are plausible across the region, although the potential for severe-caliber wind gusts currently appears low. ..Guyer/Smith.. 01/06/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may impact parts of the Florida Peninsula today, with a threat for isolated damaging winds and a tornado risk. ...Florida... Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing early this morning over the eastern Gulf of Mexico into parts of the Florida Peninsula in advance of a cold front/surface wave over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The strongest and most organized storms are ongoing offshore, roughly near/south of the Tampa Bay vicinity. This convection will gradually move inland as low-level moistening continues to occur today. Preceding cloud cover and stratiform precipitation should hinder lapse rates and overall heating, and may also hinder updraft parcel accelerations with storms as they cross the Peninsula. It is otherwise notable that low-level shear/SRH will continue to strengthen this morning through midday, before low-level winds tend to veer/weaken later in the day. The potential for isolated damaging winds and a tornado risk will exist as storms move onshore, with a somewhat higher/more focused potential seemingly existing across parts of the west-central/southwest Peninsula through early afternoon. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 4. ...Coastal Carolinas... Low/mid-level winds will notably strengthen over the region today in conjunction with the northeastward-ejecting shortwave trough. Modest low-level moisture advection will occur, with low 60s F dewpoints common ahead of the surface low. Widespread clouds and precipitation will preclude diabatic heating, limiting overall instability. Forecast soundings show very strong shear with large, looping hodographs, conditionally favorable for organized storms including supercells, buoyancy permitting. However, surface-based destabilization is likely to remain focused over the Atlantic Ocean, with little inland progress except perhaps along the coast and Outer Banks. Still, convectively enhanced wind gusts are plausible across the region, although the potential for severe-caliber wind gusts currently appears low. ..Guyer/Smith.. 01/06/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may impact parts of the Florida Peninsula today, with a threat for isolated damaging winds and a tornado risk. ...Florida... Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing early this morning over the eastern Gulf of Mexico into parts of the Florida Peninsula in advance of a cold front/surface wave over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The strongest and most organized storms are ongoing offshore, roughly near/south of the Tampa Bay vicinity. This convection will gradually move inland as low-level moistening continues to occur today. Preceding cloud cover and stratiform precipitation should hinder lapse rates and overall heating, and may also hinder updraft parcel accelerations with storms as they cross the Peninsula. It is otherwise notable that low-level shear/SRH will continue to strengthen this morning through midday, before low-level winds tend to veer/weaken later in the day. The potential for isolated damaging winds and a tornado risk will exist as storms move onshore, with a somewhat higher/more focused potential seemingly existing across parts of the west-central/southwest Peninsula through early afternoon. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 4. ...Coastal Carolinas... Low/mid-level winds will notably strengthen over the region today in conjunction with the northeastward-ejecting shortwave trough. Modest low-level moisture advection will occur, with low 60s F dewpoints common ahead of the surface low. Widespread clouds and precipitation will preclude diabatic heating, limiting overall instability. Forecast soundings show very strong shear with large, looping hodographs, conditionally favorable for organized storms including supercells, buoyancy permitting. However, surface-based destabilization is likely to remain focused over the Atlantic Ocean, with little inland progress except perhaps along the coast and Outer Banks. Still, convectively enhanced wind gusts are plausible across the region, although the potential for severe-caliber wind gusts currently appears low. ..Guyer/Smith.. 01/06/2024 Read more View the full article

MD 0004 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR WEST COAST OF FL Mesoscale Discussion 0004 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0653 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Areas affected...west coast of FL Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 061253Z - 061530Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A low risk for a localized damaging thunderstorm gust and/or brief tornado will seemingly focus near the west coast of the FL Peninsula through 11am EST. DISCUSSION...Water-vapor imagery early this morning shows a mid-level shortwave trough over AL/GA and the FL Panhandle pivoting northeast through the base of a larger-scale trough. A pre-frontal band of showers/thunderstorms extends from 175 mi west-southwest of Sarasota northeastward to 20 mi west-northwest of Ocala as of 745am EST. Surface observations along the west coast ahead of the storm activity indicate dewpoints generally in the 66-69 deg F range. Forecast soundings show a paucity of buoyancy farther north where dewpoints are lower (i.e., mid 60s) but weak buoyancy from Pasco County (100-200 J/kg MLCAPE; supported by the 12 UTC Tampa raob with 100 J/kg MLCAPE) southward to Charlotte Harbor (250-500 J/kg MLCAPE). The KTBW VAD shows around 550 m2/s2 0-1km SRH when inputting observed storm motion. Given the low CAPE/high shear setup, it seems plausible some risk for localized damaging gusts and/or a brief tornado will overspread the beaches and perhaps a row of counties inland during the morning hours. This thunderstorm threat will shift southward along the coast during the morning with the areas from Tampa Bay and areas north likely having a diminished threat by mid-late morning and it shifting towards Charlotte Harbor towards late morning. ..Smith/Guyer.. 01/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX... LAT...LON 29168274 29358251 29228223 28508233 27948243 27668236 26778195 26488198 26438211 26508233 27348282 27988299 28618280 28928283 29168274 Read more View the full article

Special Weather Statement issued January 06 at 7:31AM EST by NWSView the full article