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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today or tonight. ...Discussion... Very little change appears necessary to the ongoing outlook at this time, based on current meteorological evolution. The most substantial change has been to remove the small thunder area over the Florida Keys, as any risk for lightning appears to have moved southward. Occasional/embedded lightning is expected to evolve across parts of New Mexico and eastward across portions of Texas, within the envelope of convection occurring near and downstream of the upper system crossing the Four Corners states. ..Goss.. 01/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will impinge on the Southern Plains as another mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic today. Surface high pressure and cooler air will overspread the eastern CONUS, limiting thunderstorm potential, while low-level moisture and marginal buoyancy will return northward across parts of the south-central U.S. Cold air aloft associated with the passing mid-level trough may support isolated lightning flashes across central NM into central TX through the period. However, slightly better chances for thunderstorm development will be associated with the warm-air advection regime over the TX coastline later tonight. Read more View the full article

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The D2 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track with no updates needed. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 01/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears limited for Friday across the country. A robust surface high is forecast to build across the Midwest and into the upper OH River Valley through the day in the wake of a weak cold frontal passage. This will result in seasonal (i.e. cool) temperatures for much of the north-central CONUS, and modulate wind speeds from the Plains to the Mid-Atlantic. Across the southern Plains and Gulf Coast, a surface cyclone will likely re-intensify across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico as a progressive upper wave translates east. This may result in breezy northwesterly gradient winds across portions of western TX/OK, but cool temperatures and potential precipitation over the next 24 hours should limit fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The D2 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track with no updates needed. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 01/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears limited for Friday across the country. A robust surface high is forecast to build across the Midwest and into the upper OH River Valley through the day in the wake of a weak cold frontal passage. This will result in seasonal (i.e. cool) temperatures for much of the north-central CONUS, and modulate wind speeds from the Plains to the Mid-Atlantic. Across the southern Plains and Gulf Coast, a surface cyclone will likely re-intensify across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico as a progressive upper wave translates east. This may result in breezy northwesterly gradient winds across portions of western TX/OK, but cool temperatures and potential precipitation over the next 24 hours should limit fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur Friday afternoon through early Saturday morning across southern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. ...Coastal Southeast... A large -- but weakening -- upper trough is forecast to sweep eastward across the central/southern Plains during the day Friday, and then continue eastward across the southeastern quarter of the country into the overnight hours. As this occurs, an attendant surface low is forecast to shift eastward across the Gulf Coast region, along a surface baroclinic zone expected to lift very slowly northward across the northern Gulf, and potentially/eventually inland into coastal areas. A preceding cool/continental airmass inland will be slow to retreat, with elevated/warm-advection precipitation likely to evolve north of the warm front which should further impede inland advance of the boundary. Still, models continue to suggest weak surface-based destabilization will occur across coastal counties, within a narrow window just ahead of the advancing low, mainly through late afternoon and into the overnight hours, from southeastern Louisiana eastward to the Florida Panhandle. While elevated showers and thunderstorms are expected well north of the surface front, any severe risk will likely be confined to coastal areas just ahead of the low, near and perhaps just north of the surface warm front. While limited instability should temper severe risk, strong/veering winds with height will provide a favorable kinematic environment for conditional supercell potential. As such, a couple of tornadoes remain possible across this region, along with risk for locally strong/damaging wind gusts. Risk will shift from west to east with time, reaching the Florida Big Bend area by sunrise Saturday. ..Goss.. 01/04/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur Friday afternoon through early Saturday morning across southern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. ...Coastal Southeast... A large -- but weakening -- upper trough is forecast to sweep eastward across the central/southern Plains during the day Friday, and then continue eastward across the southeastern quarter of the country into the overnight hours. As this occurs, an attendant surface low is forecast to shift eastward across the Gulf Coast region, along a surface baroclinic zone expected to lift very slowly northward across the northern Gulf, and potentially/eventually inland into coastal areas. A preceding cool/continental airmass inland will be slow to retreat, with elevated/warm-advection precipitation likely to evolve north of the warm front which should further impede inland advance of the boundary. Still, models continue to suggest weak surface-based destabilization will occur across coastal counties, within a narrow window just ahead of the advancing low, mainly through late afternoon and into the overnight hours, from southeastern Louisiana eastward to the Florida Panhandle. While elevated showers and thunderstorms are expected well north of the surface front, any severe risk will likely be confined to coastal areas just ahead of the low, near and perhaps just north of the surface warm front. While limited instability should temper severe risk, strong/veering winds with height will provide a favorable kinematic environment for conditional supercell potential. As such, a couple of tornadoes remain possible across this region, along with risk for locally strong/damaging wind gusts. Risk will shift from west to east with time, reaching the Florida Big Bend area by sunrise Saturday. ..Goss.. 01/04/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur Friday afternoon through early Saturday morning across southern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. ...Coastal Southeast... A large -- but weakening -- upper trough is forecast to sweep eastward across the central/southern Plains during the day Friday, and then continue eastward across the southeastern quarter of the country into the overnight hours. As this occurs, an attendant surface low is forecast to shift eastward across the Gulf Coast region, along a surface baroclinic zone expected to lift very slowly northward across the northern Gulf, and potentially/eventually inland into coastal areas. A preceding cool/continental airmass inland will be slow to retreat, with elevated/warm-advection precipitation likely to evolve north of the warm front which should further impede inland advance of the boundary. Still, models continue to suggest weak surface-based destabilization will occur across coastal counties, within a narrow window just ahead of the advancing low, mainly through late afternoon and into the overnight hours, from southeastern Louisiana eastward to the Florida Panhandle. While elevated showers and thunderstorms are expected well north of the surface front, any severe risk will likely be confined to coastal areas just ahead of the low, near and perhaps just north of the surface warm front. While limited instability should temper severe risk, strong/veering winds with height will provide a favorable kinematic environment for conditional supercell potential. As such, a couple of tornadoes remain possible across this region, along with risk for locally strong/damaging wind gusts. Risk will shift from west to east with time, reaching the Florida Big Bend area by sunrise Saturday. ..Goss.. 01/04/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur Friday afternoon through early Saturday morning across southern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. ...Coastal Southeast... A large -- but weakening -- upper trough is forecast to sweep eastward across the central/southern Plains during the day Friday, and then continue eastward across the southeastern quarter of the country into the overnight hours. As this occurs, an attendant surface low is forecast to shift eastward across the Gulf Coast region, along a surface baroclinic zone expected to lift very slowly northward across the northern Gulf, and potentially/eventually inland into coastal areas. A preceding cool/continental airmass inland will be slow to retreat, with elevated/warm-advection precipitation likely to evolve north of the warm front which should further impede inland advance of the boundary. Still, models continue to suggest weak surface-based destabilization will occur across coastal counties, within a narrow window just ahead of the advancing low, mainly through late afternoon and into the overnight hours, from southeastern Louisiana eastward to the Florida Panhandle. While elevated showers and thunderstorms are expected well north of the surface front, any severe risk will likely be confined to coastal areas just ahead of the low, near and perhaps just north of the surface warm front. While limited instability should temper severe risk, strong/veering winds with height will provide a favorable kinematic environment for conditional supercell potential. As such, a couple of tornadoes remain possible across this region, along with risk for locally strong/damaging wind gusts. Risk will shift from west to east with time, reaching the Florida Big Bend area by sunrise Saturday. ..Goss.. 01/04/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1039 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 01/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be limited for today across the country. A cool continental air mass will be reinforced across the Plains and Midwest today as a cold front gradually spreads south. Across the Southeast, a dry offshore flow regime is anticipated, but seasonal temperatures will limit diurnal RH reductions, and the probability of winds exceeding elevated thresholds appears limited. Recent surface observations show a deepening low over portions of eastern AZ/western NM as an upper wave approaches the region. The passage of a Pacific cold front across southern NM/southwest TX this afternoon will likely result in strong westerly winds between 15-25 mph. However, the potential for widespread cloud cover and scattered showers limits confidence in RH values falling to near elevated thresholds over a substantially large area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1039 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 01/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be limited for today across the country. A cool continental air mass will be reinforced across the Plains and Midwest today as a cold front gradually spreads south. Across the Southeast, a dry offshore flow regime is anticipated, but seasonal temperatures will limit diurnal RH reductions, and the probability of winds exceeding elevated thresholds appears limited. Recent surface observations show a deepening low over portions of eastern AZ/western NM as an upper wave approaches the region. The passage of a Pacific cold front across southern NM/southwest TX this afternoon will likely result in strong westerly winds between 15-25 mph. However, the potential for widespread cloud cover and scattered showers limits confidence in RH values falling to near elevated thresholds over a substantially large area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today or tonight. ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will impinge on the Southern Plains as another mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic today. Surface high pressure and cooler air will overspread the eastern CONUS, limiting thunderstorm potential, while low-level moisture and marginal buoyancy will return northward across parts of the south-central U.S. Cold air aloft associated with the passing mid-level trough may support isolated lightning flashes across central NM into central TX through the period. However, slightly better chances for thunderstorm development will be associated with the warm-air advection regime over the TX coastline later tonight. ..Squitieri.. 01/04/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today or tonight. ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will impinge on the Southern Plains as another mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic today. Surface high pressure and cooler air will overspread the eastern CONUS, limiting thunderstorm potential, while low-level moisture and marginal buoyancy will return northward across parts of the south-central U.S. Cold air aloft associated with the passing mid-level trough may support isolated lightning flashes across central NM into central TX through the period. However, slightly better chances for thunderstorm development will be associated with the warm-air advection regime over the TX coastline later tonight. ..Squitieri.. 01/04/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today or tonight. ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will impinge on the Southern Plains as another mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic today. Surface high pressure and cooler air will overspread the eastern CONUS, limiting thunderstorm potential, while low-level moisture and marginal buoyancy will return northward across parts of the south-central U.S. Cold air aloft associated with the passing mid-level trough may support isolated lightning flashes across central NM into central TX through the period. However, slightly better chances for thunderstorm development will be associated with the warm-air advection regime over the TX coastline later tonight. ..Squitieri.. 01/04/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today or tonight. ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will impinge on the Southern Plains as another mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic today. Surface high pressure and cooler air will overspread the eastern CONUS, limiting thunderstorm potential, while low-level moisture and marginal buoyancy will return northward across parts of the south-central U.S. Cold air aloft associated with the passing mid-level trough may support isolated lightning flashes across central NM into central TX through the period. However, slightly better chances for thunderstorm development will be associated with the warm-air advection regime over the TX coastline later tonight. ..Squitieri.. 01/04/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today or tonight. ...Synopsis... A southern-stream trough will continue eastward from the Southwest Deserts/far northwest Mexico early today toward the southern Plains by tonight. This system will include a strong, cyclonically curved mid-level speed max that will nose into western Texas during the late afternoon and evening, resulting in steepening lapse rates. Sporadic weak thunderstorms are expected today across parts of New Mexico into west/northwest Texas. ...East/Southeast Texas... Air mass modification over the western Gulf of Mexico will lead to steady low-level moistening for coastal areas late tonight into early Friday, with thunderstorm potential increasing. The primary warm sector and evolving surface wave should remain focused just off the Texas coast late tonight, although it is conceivable that a few strong near-surface-based storms/weak supercells could occur just offshore/near the middle Texas coast, with thunderstorms otherwise progressively more elevated and generally weaker inland (northward) across the remainder of east/southeast Texas. Severe probabilities do not currently appear warranted given expectations that a stable surface layer will likely persist over inland areas, but this scenario will be monitored and reevaluated in subsequent outlooks. ..Guyer/Smith.. 01/04/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today or tonight. ...Synopsis... A southern-stream trough will continue eastward from the Southwest Deserts/far northwest Mexico early today toward the southern Plains by tonight. This system will include a strong, cyclonically curved mid-level speed max that will nose into western Texas during the late afternoon and evening, resulting in steepening lapse rates. Sporadic weak thunderstorms are expected today across parts of New Mexico into west/northwest Texas. ...East/Southeast Texas... Air mass modification over the western Gulf of Mexico will lead to steady low-level moistening for coastal areas late tonight into early Friday, with thunderstorm potential increasing. The primary warm sector and evolving surface wave should remain focused just off the Texas coast late tonight, although it is conceivable that a few strong near-surface-based storms/weak supercells could occur just offshore/near the middle Texas coast, with thunderstorms otherwise progressively more elevated and generally weaker inland (northward) across the remainder of east/southeast Texas. Severe probabilities do not currently appear warranted given expectations that a stable surface layer will likely persist over inland areas, but this scenario will be monitored and reevaluated in subsequent outlooks. ..Guyer/Smith.. 01/04/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today or tonight. ...Synopsis... A southern-stream trough will continue eastward from the Southwest Deserts/far northwest Mexico early today toward the southern Plains by tonight. This system will include a strong, cyclonically curved mid-level speed max that will nose into western Texas during the late afternoon and evening, resulting in steepening lapse rates. Sporadic weak thunderstorms are expected today across parts of New Mexico into west/northwest Texas. ...East/Southeast Texas... Air mass modification over the western Gulf of Mexico will lead to steady low-level moistening for coastal areas late tonight into early Friday, with thunderstorm potential increasing. The primary warm sector and evolving surface wave should remain focused just off the Texas coast late tonight, although it is conceivable that a few strong near-surface-based storms/weak supercells could occur just offshore/near the middle Texas coast, with thunderstorms otherwise progressively more elevated and generally weaker inland (northward) across the remainder of east/southeast Texas. Severe probabilities do not currently appear warranted given expectations that a stable surface layer will likely persist over inland areas, but this scenario will be monitored and reevaluated in subsequent outlooks. ..Guyer/Smith.. 01/04/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today or tonight. ...Synopsis... A southern-stream trough will continue eastward from the Southwest Deserts/far northwest Mexico early today toward the southern Plains by tonight. This system will include a strong, cyclonically curved mid-level speed max that will nose into western Texas during the late afternoon and evening, resulting in steepening lapse rates. Sporadic weak thunderstorms are expected today across parts of New Mexico into west/northwest Texas. ...East/Southeast Texas... Air mass modification over the western Gulf of Mexico will lead to steady low-level moistening for coastal areas late tonight into early Friday, with thunderstorm potential increasing. The primary warm sector and evolving surface wave should remain focused just off the Texas coast late tonight, although it is conceivable that a few strong near-surface-based storms/weak supercells could occur just offshore/near the middle Texas coast, with thunderstorms otherwise progressively more elevated and generally weaker inland (northward) across the remainder of east/southeast Texas. Severe probabilities do not currently appear warranted given expectations that a stable surface layer will likely persist over inland areas, but this scenario will be monitored and reevaluated in subsequent outlooks. ..Guyer/Smith.. 01/04/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today or tonight. ...Synopsis... A southern-stream trough will continue eastward from the Southwest Deserts/far northwest Mexico early today toward the southern Plains by tonight. This system will include a strong, cyclonically curved mid-level speed max that will nose into western Texas during the late afternoon and evening, resulting in steepening lapse rates. Sporadic weak thunderstorms are expected today across parts of New Mexico into west/northwest Texas. ...East/Southeast Texas... Air mass modification over the western Gulf of Mexico will lead to steady low-level moistening for coastal areas late tonight into early Friday, with thunderstorm potential increasing. The primary warm sector and evolving surface wave should remain focused just off the Texas coast late tonight, although it is conceivable that a few strong near-surface-based storms/weak supercells could occur just offshore/near the middle Texas coast, with thunderstorms otherwise progressively more elevated and generally weaker inland (northward) across the remainder of east/southeast Texas. Severe probabilities do not currently appear warranted given expectations that a stable surface layer will likely persist over inland areas, but this scenario will be monitored and reevaluated in subsequent outlooks. ..Guyer/Smith.. 01/04/2024 Read more View the full article

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... Minimal severe potential remains evident across the CONUS on Day 4/Sunday as a cold front clears much of the FL Peninsula. Another pronounced upper trough/low is forecast to eject across the southern Plains and Southeast from Day 5/Monday into Day 6/Tuesday. Low-level moisture should return northward in earnest from Sunday night into Monday ahead of this cyclone, with at least low 60s surface dewpoints probably reaching parts of east TX into southern LA by Monday afternoon. A deepening surface low is progged to develop from the TX Panhandle to the Mid-South by Tuesday morning, with associated cold front expected to sweep eastward across east TX and the lower MS Valley. There is still some uncertainty regarding how much instability will develop inland across these areas due to the possibility of substantial convection over the northern Gulf of Mexico impeding low-level moisture advection to some extent. Even so, GEFS mean forecast MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg from east TX into LA and southern MS/AL should be more than enough to support a severe thunderstorm threat given the presence of very strong deep-layer shear. The threat for supercells and short line segments capable of producing tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds should spread eastward across this area from Monday afternoon through Monday night and early Tuesday morning. Some adjustments have been made to the northern and eastern extent of the 15% severe area for Monday across MS/AL and the FL Panhandle based on latest deterministic and ensemble guidance. This includes the northward extent of GEFS and EPS mean surface dewpoints reaching into at least the low 60s. A 15% severe delineation has also been introduced for Tuesday across parts of north/central FL and southern GA. This will be a continuation of the threat from Monday farther west, as the mature upper cyclone is forecast to move quickly northeastward from the lower MS Valley to the TN/OH Valley and Mid-Atlantic by Tuesday evening. Very strong mid-level flow will likely aid in ample deep-layer shear to support continued convective organization. While some concern also exists on Tuesday regarding the potential for widespread thunderstorms over the northern Gulf of Mexico, medium-range guidance remains in good agreement that mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints will likely advect northward across much of FL and into southern GA ahead of the surface cold front. Low-level shear appears strong enough for updraft rotation and a tornado threat. Very strong wind fields overall should also support a threat for severe/damaging winds as convection spreads eastward along/ahead of the front Tuesday. Read more View the full article

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... Minimal severe potential remains evident across the CONUS on Day 4/Sunday as a cold front clears much of the FL Peninsula. Another pronounced upper trough/low is forecast to eject across the southern Plains and Southeast from Day 5/Monday into Day 6/Tuesday. Low-level moisture should return northward in earnest from Sunday night into Monday ahead of this cyclone, with at least low 60s surface dewpoints probably reaching parts of east TX into southern LA by Monday afternoon. A deepening surface low is progged to develop from the TX Panhandle to the Mid-South by Tuesday morning, with associated cold front expected to sweep eastward across east TX and the lower MS Valley. There is still some uncertainty regarding how much instability will develop inland across these areas due to the possibility of substantial convection over the northern Gulf of Mexico impeding low-level moisture advection to some extent. Even so, GEFS mean forecast MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg from east TX into LA and southern MS/AL should be more than enough to support a severe thunderstorm threat given the presence of very strong deep-layer shear. The threat for supercells and short line segments capable of producing tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds should spread eastward across this area from Monday afternoon through Monday night and early Tuesday morning. Some adjustments have been made to the northern and eastern extent of the 15% severe area for Monday across MS/AL and the FL Panhandle based on latest deterministic and ensemble guidance. This includes the northward extent of GEFS and EPS mean surface dewpoints reaching into at least the low 60s. A 15% severe delineation has also been introduced for Tuesday across parts of north/central FL and southern GA. This will be a continuation of the threat from Monday farther west, as the mature upper cyclone is forecast to move quickly northeastward from the lower MS Valley to the TN/OH Valley and Mid-Atlantic by Tuesday evening. Very strong mid-level flow will likely aid in ample deep-layer shear to support continued convective organization. While some concern also exists on Tuesday regarding the potential for widespread thunderstorms over the northern Gulf of Mexico, medium-range guidance remains in good agreement that mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints will likely advect northward across much of FL and into southern GA ahead of the surface cold front. Low-level shear appears strong enough for updraft rotation and a tornado threat. Very strong wind fields overall should also support a threat for severe/damaging winds as convection spreads eastward along/ahead of the front Tuesday. Read more View the full article

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... Minimal severe potential remains evident across the CONUS on Day 4/Sunday as a cold front clears much of the FL Peninsula. Another pronounced upper trough/low is forecast to eject across the southern Plains and Southeast from Day 5/Monday into Day 6/Tuesday. Low-level moisture should return northward in earnest from Sunday night into Monday ahead of this cyclone, with at least low 60s surface dewpoints probably reaching parts of east TX into southern LA by Monday afternoon. A deepening surface low is progged to develop from the TX Panhandle to the Mid-South by Tuesday morning, with associated cold front expected to sweep eastward across east TX and the lower MS Valley. There is still some uncertainty regarding how much instability will develop inland across these areas due to the possibility of substantial convection over the northern Gulf of Mexico impeding low-level moisture advection to some extent. Even so, GEFS mean forecast MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg from east TX into LA and southern MS/AL should be more than enough to support a severe thunderstorm threat given the presence of very strong deep-layer shear. The threat for supercells and short line segments capable of producing tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds should spread eastward across this area from Monday afternoon through Monday night and early Tuesday morning. Some adjustments have been made to the northern and eastern extent of the 15% severe area for Monday across MS/AL and the FL Panhandle based on latest deterministic and ensemble guidance. This includes the northward extent of GEFS and EPS mean surface dewpoints reaching into at least the low 60s. A 15% severe delineation has also been introduced for Tuesday across parts of north/central FL and southern GA. This will be a continuation of the threat from Monday farther west, as the mature upper cyclone is forecast to move quickly northeastward from the lower MS Valley to the TN/OH Valley and Mid-Atlantic by Tuesday evening. Very strong mid-level flow will likely aid in ample deep-layer shear to support continued convective organization. While some concern also exists on Tuesday regarding the potential for widespread thunderstorms over the northern Gulf of Mexico, medium-range guidance remains in good agreement that mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints will likely advect northward across much of FL and into southern GA ahead of the surface cold front. Low-level shear appears strong enough for updraft rotation and a tornado threat. Very strong wind fields overall should also support a threat for severe/damaging winds as convection spreads eastward along/ahead of the front Tuesday. Read more View the full article

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... Minimal severe potential remains evident across the CONUS on Day 4/Sunday as a cold front clears much of the FL Peninsula. Another pronounced upper trough/low is forecast to eject across the southern Plains and Southeast from Day 5/Monday into Day 6/Tuesday. Low-level moisture should return northward in earnest from Sunday night into Monday ahead of this cyclone, with at least low 60s surface dewpoints probably reaching parts of east TX into southern LA by Monday afternoon. A deepening surface low is progged to develop from the TX Panhandle to the Mid-South by Tuesday morning, with associated cold front expected to sweep eastward across east TX and the lower MS Valley. There is still some uncertainty regarding how much instability will develop inland across these areas due to the possibility of substantial convection over the northern Gulf of Mexico impeding low-level moisture advection to some extent. Even so, GEFS mean forecast MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg from east TX into LA and southern MS/AL should be more than enough to support a severe thunderstorm threat given the presence of very strong deep-layer shear. The threat for supercells and short line segments capable of producing tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds should spread eastward across this area from Monday afternoon through Monday night and early Tuesday morning. Some adjustments have been made to the northern and eastern extent of the 15% severe area for Monday across MS/AL and the FL Panhandle based on latest deterministic and ensemble guidance. This includes the northward extent of GEFS and EPS mean surface dewpoints reaching into at least the low 60s. A 15% severe delineation has also been introduced for Tuesday across parts of north/central FL and southern GA. This will be a continuation of the threat from Monday farther west, as the mature upper cyclone is forecast to move quickly northeastward from the lower MS Valley to the TN/OH Valley and Mid-Atlantic by Tuesday evening. Very strong mid-level flow will likely aid in ample deep-layer shear to support continued convective organization. While some concern also exists on Tuesday regarding the potential for widespread thunderstorms over the northern Gulf of Mexico, medium-range guidance remains in good agreement that mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints will likely advect northward across much of FL and into southern GA ahead of the surface cold front. Low-level shear appears strong enough for updraft rotation and a tornado threat. Very strong wind fields overall should also support a threat for severe/damaging winds as convection spreads eastward along/ahead of the front Tuesday. Read more View the full article

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... Minimal severe potential remains evident across the CONUS on Day 4/Sunday as a cold front clears much of the FL Peninsula. Another pronounced upper trough/low is forecast to eject across the southern Plains and Southeast from Day 5/Monday into Day 6/Tuesday. Low-level moisture should return northward in earnest from Sunday night into Monday ahead of this cyclone, with at least low 60s surface dewpoints probably reaching parts of east TX into southern LA by Monday afternoon. A deepening surface low is progged to develop from the TX Panhandle to the Mid-South by Tuesday morning, with associated cold front expected to sweep eastward across east TX and the lower MS Valley. There is still some uncertainty regarding how much instability will develop inland across these areas due to the possibility of substantial convection over the northern Gulf of Mexico impeding low-level moisture advection to some extent. Even so, GEFS mean forecast MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg from east TX into LA and southern MS/AL should be more than enough to support a severe thunderstorm threat given the presence of very strong deep-layer shear. The threat for supercells and short line segments capable of producing tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds should spread eastward across this area from Monday afternoon through Monday night and early Tuesday morning. Some adjustments have been made to the northern and eastern extent of the 15% severe area for Monday across MS/AL and the FL Panhandle based on latest deterministic and ensemble guidance. This includes the northward extent of GEFS and EPS mean surface dewpoints reaching into at least the low 60s. A 15% severe delineation has also been introduced for Tuesday across parts of north/central FL and southern GA. This will be a continuation of the threat from Monday farther west, as the mature upper cyclone is forecast to move quickly northeastward from the lower MS Valley to the TN/OH Valley and Mid-Atlantic by Tuesday evening. Very strong mid-level flow will likely aid in ample deep-layer shear to support continued convective organization. While some concern also exists on Tuesday regarding the potential for widespread thunderstorms over the northern Gulf of Mexico, medium-range guidance remains in good agreement that mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints will likely advect northward across much of FL and into southern GA ahead of the surface cold front. Low-level shear appears strong enough for updraft rotation and a tornado threat. Very strong wind fields overall should also support a threat for severe/damaging winds as convection spreads eastward along/ahead of the front Tuesday. Read more View the full article

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible Saturday across parts of Florida and southern Georgia. ...Southeast... Within broad large-scale upper troughing over much of the central/eastern CONUS, an embedded shortwave trough should move quickly northeastward over parts of the Southeast and East Coast states. A weak surface low near southern GA/north FL Saturday morning is likewise forecast to develop rapidly northeastward through the day along and near the coast of SC/NC. Low to mid 60s surface dewpoints should be present along/south of an effective warm front located over southern GA and north FL. While lapse rates aloft are expected to remain generally poor, modest daytime heating of this moist low-level airmass should yield weak instability ahead of a cold front through Saturday afternoon. Enhanced mid-level flow and sufficient deep-layer shear should also be in place to support thunderstorm organization. A broken line of convection may be ongoing at the start of the period from parts of the FL Panhandle into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This activity should spread inland across much of FL and southern GA through Saturday afternoon, while posing an isolated risk for damaging winds as the boundary layer gradually destabilizes. Even though low-level flow will have a tendency to veer to a more westerly component though the day, sufficient low-level shear should also be in place for some tornado threat. Low severe probabilities have been included to account for this potential, but the lack of stronger forecast instability limits confidence in the overall intensity and coverage of these possible strong to severe thunderstorms. ..Gleason.. 01/04/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible Saturday across parts of Florida and southern Georgia. ...Southeast... Within broad large-scale upper troughing over much of the central/eastern CONUS, an embedded shortwave trough should move quickly northeastward over parts of the Southeast and East Coast states. A weak surface low near southern GA/north FL Saturday morning is likewise forecast to develop rapidly northeastward through the day along and near the coast of SC/NC. Low to mid 60s surface dewpoints should be present along/south of an effective warm front located over southern GA and north FL. While lapse rates aloft are expected to remain generally poor, modest daytime heating of this moist low-level airmass should yield weak instability ahead of a cold front through Saturday afternoon. Enhanced mid-level flow and sufficient deep-layer shear should also be in place to support thunderstorm organization. A broken line of convection may be ongoing at the start of the period from parts of the FL Panhandle into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This activity should spread inland across much of FL and southern GA through Saturday afternoon, while posing an isolated risk for damaging winds as the boundary layer gradually destabilizes. Even though low-level flow will have a tendency to veer to a more westerly component though the day, sufficient low-level shear should also be in place for some tornado threat. Low severe probabilities have been included to account for this potential, but the lack of stronger forecast instability limits confidence in the overall intensity and coverage of these possible strong to severe thunderstorms. ..Gleason.. 01/04/2024 Read more View the full article