NorthGeorgiaWX

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible Saturday across parts of Florida and southern Georgia. ...Southeast... Within broad large-scale upper troughing over much of the central/eastern CONUS, an embedded shortwave trough should move quickly northeastward over parts of the Southeast and East Coast states. A weak surface low near southern GA/north FL Saturday morning is likewise forecast to develop rapidly northeastward through the day along and near the coast of SC/NC. Low to mid 60s surface dewpoints should be present along/south of an effective warm front located over southern GA and north FL. While lapse rates aloft are expected to remain generally poor, modest daytime heating of this moist low-level airmass should yield weak instability ahead of a cold front through Saturday afternoon. Enhanced mid-level flow and sufficient deep-layer shear should also be in place to support thunderstorm organization. A broken line of convection may be ongoing at the start of the period from parts of the FL Panhandle into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This activity should spread inland across much of FL and southern GA through Saturday afternoon, while posing an isolated risk for damaging winds as the boundary layer gradually destabilizes. Even though low-level flow will have a tendency to veer to a more westerly component though the day, sufficient low-level shear should also be in place for some tornado threat. Low severe probabilities have been included to account for this potential, but the lack of stronger forecast instability limits confidence in the overall intensity and coverage of these possible strong to severe thunderstorms. ..Gleason.. 01/04/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible Saturday across parts of Florida and southern Georgia. ...Southeast... Within broad large-scale upper troughing over much of the central/eastern CONUS, an embedded shortwave trough should move quickly northeastward over parts of the Southeast and East Coast states. A weak surface low near southern GA/north FL Saturday morning is likewise forecast to develop rapidly northeastward through the day along and near the coast of SC/NC. Low to mid 60s surface dewpoints should be present along/south of an effective warm front located over southern GA and north FL. While lapse rates aloft are expected to remain generally poor, modest daytime heating of this moist low-level airmass should yield weak instability ahead of a cold front through Saturday afternoon. Enhanced mid-level flow and sufficient deep-layer shear should also be in place to support thunderstorm organization. A broken line of convection may be ongoing at the start of the period from parts of the FL Panhandle into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This activity should spread inland across much of FL and southern GA through Saturday afternoon, while posing an isolated risk for damaging winds as the boundary layer gradually destabilizes. Even though low-level flow will have a tendency to veer to a more westerly component though the day, sufficient low-level shear should also be in place for some tornado threat. Low severe probabilities have been included to account for this potential, but the lack of stronger forecast instability limits confidence in the overall intensity and coverage of these possible strong to severe thunderstorms. ..Gleason.. 01/04/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible Saturday across parts of Florida and southern Georgia. ...Southeast... Within broad large-scale upper troughing over much of the central/eastern CONUS, an embedded shortwave trough should move quickly northeastward over parts of the Southeast and East Coast states. A weak surface low near southern GA/north FL Saturday morning is likewise forecast to develop rapidly northeastward through the day along and near the coast of SC/NC. Low to mid 60s surface dewpoints should be present along/south of an effective warm front located over southern GA and north FL. While lapse rates aloft are expected to remain generally poor, modest daytime heating of this moist low-level airmass should yield weak instability ahead of a cold front through Saturday afternoon. Enhanced mid-level flow and sufficient deep-layer shear should also be in place to support thunderstorm organization. A broken line of convection may be ongoing at the start of the period from parts of the FL Panhandle into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This activity should spread inland across much of FL and southern GA through Saturday afternoon, while posing an isolated risk for damaging winds as the boundary layer gradually destabilizes. Even though low-level flow will have a tendency to veer to a more westerly component though the day, sufficient low-level shear should also be in place for some tornado threat. Low severe probabilities have been included to account for this potential, but the lack of stronger forecast instability limits confidence in the overall intensity and coverage of these possible strong to severe thunderstorms. ..Gleason.. 01/04/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears limited for Friday across the country. A robust surface high is forecast to build across the Midwest and into the upper OH River Valley through the day in the wake of a weak cold frontal passage. This will result in seasonal (i.e. cool) temperatures for much of the north-central CONUS, and modulate wind speeds from the Plains to the Mid-Atlantic. Across the southern Plains and Gulf Coast, a surface cyclone will likely re-intensify across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico as a progressive upper wave translates east. This may result in breezy northwesterly gradient winds across portions of western TX/OK, but cool temperatures and potential precipitation over the next 24 hours should limit fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 01/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears limited for Friday across the country. A robust surface high is forecast to build across the Midwest and into the upper OH River Valley through the day in the wake of a weak cold frontal passage. This will result in seasonal (i.e. cool) temperatures for much of the north-central CONUS, and modulate wind speeds from the Plains to the Mid-Atlantic. Across the southern Plains and Gulf Coast, a surface cyclone will likely re-intensify across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico as a progressive upper wave translates east. This may result in breezy northwesterly gradient winds across portions of western TX/OK, but cool temperatures and potential precipitation over the next 24 hours should limit fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 01/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be limited for today across the country. A cool continental air mass will be reinforced across the Plains and Midwest today as a cold front gradually spreads south. Across the Southeast, a dry offshore flow regime is anticipated, but seasonal temperatures will limit diurnal RH reductions, and the probability of winds exceeding elevated thresholds appears limited. Recent surface observations show a deepening low over portions of eastern AZ/western NM as an upper wave approaches the region. The passage of a Pacific cold front across southern NM/southwest TX this afternoon will likely result in strong westerly winds between 15-25 mph. However, the potential for widespread cloud cover and scattered showers limits confidence in RH values falling to near elevated thresholds over a substantially large area. ..Moore.. 01/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur Friday afternoon through early Saturday morning across southern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... Strong to severe thunderstorm potential will be focused along the northern Gulf Coast as an upper trough (currently approaching the Four Corners) and attendant surface low traverse the lower MS River Valley/northern Gulf over the next 24-48 hours. ...Northern Gulf Coast... A gradual de-amplification of the upper trough is anticipated during this period, and the strongest broad-scale ascent will likely reside over the southern Plains within the left-exit region of a 60-80 knot mid-level jet. However, a residual baroclinic zone currently draped across the western/central Gulf will advance poleward amid strengthening south/southeasterly winds as an effective warm front by early Friday morning. Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period within this warm advection regime along the TX coast. Further intensification of the surface low and strengthening of the low-level kinematic fields are expected through the afternoon/overnight as broad-scale ascent increases with the approach of the main trough axis. A fairly robust kinematic environment will likely be in place with most guidance suggesting 0-1 km SRH on the order of 200-400 m2/s2 within and just north of the warm frontal zone. However, due to the recent frontal passage over the past 24 hours, a cool, dry airmass is in place across much of southern LA, MS, AL, and the FL Panhandle, and should remain in place through early Friday. As a result, any effective warm sector will likely reside immediately ahead of the surface low within a relatively narrow spatial corridor. Furthermore, most guidance casts considerable doubt on how far inland this warm sector will advect. Semi-discrete, surface-based cells that can develop within the warm advection regime preceding the surface low and trailing cold front may take on supercellular characteristics with an attendant tornado threat as they move towards shore, though this threat appears limited to coastal areas for now and is conditional on adequate low-level theta-e reaching land. Regardless, a signal for a band of more strongly forced (though possibly elevated) convection is noted along the trailing cold front. Given elongated hodographs within the effective layer, and somewhat orthogonal flow relative to the anticipated orientation of the front, an organized band seems possible and may pose a damaging wind threat - especially if convection can become rooted near the surface. ..Moore/Gleason.. 01/04/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur Friday afternoon through early Saturday morning across southern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... Strong to severe thunderstorm potential will be focused along the northern Gulf Coast as an upper trough (currently approaching the Four Corners) and attendant surface low traverse the lower MS River Valley/northern Gulf over the next 24-48 hours. ...Northern Gulf Coast... A gradual de-amplification of the upper trough is anticipated during this period, and the strongest broad-scale ascent will likely reside over the southern Plains within the left-exit region of a 60-80 knot mid-level jet. However, a residual baroclinic zone currently draped across the western/central Gulf will advance poleward amid strengthening south/southeasterly winds as an effective warm front by early Friday morning. Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period within this warm advection regime along the TX coast. Further intensification of the surface low and strengthening of the low-level kinematic fields are expected through the afternoon/overnight as broad-scale ascent increases with the approach of the main trough axis. A fairly robust kinematic environment will likely be in place with most guidance suggesting 0-1 km SRH on the order of 200-400 m2/s2 within and just north of the warm frontal zone. However, due to the recent frontal passage over the past 24 hours, a cool, dry airmass is in place across much of southern LA, MS, AL, and the FL Panhandle, and should remain in place through early Friday. As a result, any effective warm sector will likely reside immediately ahead of the surface low within a relatively narrow spatial corridor. Furthermore, most guidance casts considerable doubt on how far inland this warm sector will advect. Semi-discrete, surface-based cells that can develop within the warm advection regime preceding the surface low and trailing cold front may take on supercellular characteristics with an attendant tornado threat as they move towards shore, though this threat appears limited to coastal areas for now and is conditional on adequate low-level theta-e reaching land. Regardless, a signal for a band of more strongly forced (though possibly elevated) convection is noted along the trailing cold front. Given elongated hodographs within the effective layer, and somewhat orthogonal flow relative to the anticipated orientation of the front, an organized band seems possible and may pose a damaging wind threat - especially if convection can become rooted near the surface. ..Moore/Gleason.. 01/04/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur Friday afternoon through early Saturday morning across southern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... Strong to severe thunderstorm potential will be focused along the northern Gulf Coast as an upper trough (currently approaching the Four Corners) and attendant surface low traverse the lower MS River Valley/northern Gulf over the next 24-48 hours. ...Northern Gulf Coast... A gradual de-amplification of the upper trough is anticipated during this period, and the strongest broad-scale ascent will likely reside over the southern Plains within the left-exit region of a 60-80 knot mid-level jet. However, a residual baroclinic zone currently draped across the western/central Gulf will advance poleward amid strengthening south/southeasterly winds as an effective warm front by early Friday morning. Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period within this warm advection regime along the TX coast. Further intensification of the surface low and strengthening of the low-level kinematic fields are expected through the afternoon/overnight as broad-scale ascent increases with the approach of the main trough axis. A fairly robust kinematic environment will likely be in place with most guidance suggesting 0-1 km SRH on the order of 200-400 m2/s2 within and just north of the warm frontal zone. However, due to the recent frontal passage over the past 24 hours, a cool, dry airmass is in place across much of southern LA, MS, AL, and the FL Panhandle, and should remain in place through early Friday. As a result, any effective warm sector will likely reside immediately ahead of the surface low within a relatively narrow spatial corridor. Furthermore, most guidance casts considerable doubt on how far inland this warm sector will advect. Semi-discrete, surface-based cells that can develop within the warm advection regime preceding the surface low and trailing cold front may take on supercellular characteristics with an attendant tornado threat as they move towards shore, though this threat appears limited to coastal areas for now and is conditional on adequate low-level theta-e reaching land. Regardless, a signal for a band of more strongly forced (though possibly elevated) convection is noted along the trailing cold front. Given elongated hodographs within the effective layer, and somewhat orthogonal flow relative to the anticipated orientation of the front, an organized band seems possible and may pose a damaging wind threat - especially if convection can become rooted near the surface. ..Moore/Gleason.. 01/04/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CST Wed Jan 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today. Scattered general thunderstorms are mostly likely overnight into parts of eastern Texas. ...Synopsis and Discussion... The primary feature of interest will be a prominent shortwave trough that will move from AZ/NM into the southern Plains, with minimal deepening through 12Z Friday. This system will include a strong, cyclonically curved midlevel speed max that will nose into western TX during the late afternoon and evening, resulting in steepening lapse rates. The primary mitigating factor to thunderstorm (and certainly severe) potential will be the presence of a large surface ridge extending southward from a Midwestern high. This will result in poor trajectories for moisture return ahead of the shortwave trough, though a plume of mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will likely develop into the western Gulf of Mexico by 12Z Friday. Over land, only weak elevated instability is forecast, by virtue of steepening lapse rates aloft, from NM into central TX. Here, sporadic weak convection will be possible through evening. A greater chance of general thunderstorms will develop late tonight and into Friday morning as lift interacts with an elevated theta-e plume over eastern TX. Forecast soundings show a stable boundary layer with a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE developing. Given the weak instability and eventual saturated profiles aloft, severe hail is not currently forecast, despite strong effective shear. ..Jewell/Moore.. 01/04/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CST Wed Jan 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today. Scattered general thunderstorms are mostly likely overnight into parts of eastern Texas. ...Synopsis and Discussion... The primary feature of interest will be a prominent shortwave trough that will move from AZ/NM into the southern Plains, with minimal deepening through 12Z Friday. This system will include a strong, cyclonically curved midlevel speed max that will nose into western TX during the late afternoon and evening, resulting in steepening lapse rates. The primary mitigating factor to thunderstorm (and certainly severe) potential will be the presence of a large surface ridge extending southward from a Midwestern high. This will result in poor trajectories for moisture return ahead of the shortwave trough, though a plume of mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will likely develop into the western Gulf of Mexico by 12Z Friday. Over land, only weak elevated instability is forecast, by virtue of steepening lapse rates aloft, from NM into central TX. Here, sporadic weak convection will be possible through evening. A greater chance of general thunderstorms will develop late tonight and into Friday morning as lift interacts with an elevated theta-e plume over eastern TX. Forecast soundings show a stable boundary layer with a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE developing. Given the weak instability and eventual saturated profiles aloft, severe hail is not currently forecast, despite strong effective shear. ..Jewell/Moore.. 01/04/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0647 PM CST Wed Jan 03 2024 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... Little thunderstorm activity is ongoing across the CONUS this evening, with only isolated flashes noted around Las Vegas NV, close to the upper low. The 00Z VEF sounding shows steep lapse rates through a deep layer, supporting this activity despite 30s F dewpoints. Additional low-topped convection will be possible overnight as the upper low continues east across AZ, with cooling aloft resulting in minimal destabilization. Elsewhere, weak convection over the eastern Gulf of Mexico is expected to wane through tonight, as lift related to an associated shortwave trough shifts northeast. The 00Z TBW sounding shows zero MUCAPE, along with very dry air just above the surface. As such, isolated flashes are expected to remain mainly offshore, with only a very low chance near or just south of the Tampa Bay area ahead of the existing storms over the Gulf of Mexico. ..Jewell.. 01/04/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0647 PM CST Wed Jan 03 2024 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... Little thunderstorm activity is ongoing across the CONUS this evening, with only isolated flashes noted around Las Vegas NV, close to the upper low. The 00Z VEF sounding shows steep lapse rates through a deep layer, supporting this activity despite 30s F dewpoints. Additional low-topped convection will be possible overnight as the upper low continues east across AZ, with cooling aloft resulting in minimal destabilization. Elsewhere, weak convection over the eastern Gulf of Mexico is expected to wane through tonight, as lift related to an associated shortwave trough shifts northeast. The 00Z TBW sounding shows zero MUCAPE, along with very dry air just above the surface. As such, isolated flashes are expected to remain mainly offshore, with only a very low chance near or just south of the Tampa Bay area ahead of the existing storms over the Gulf of Mexico. ..Jewell.. 01/04/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 PM CST Wed Jan 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low through the extended period. A trough across the central US on D3 Friday will bring increasing surface winds but also potential for widespread precipitation across the central and southern Plains. A small corridor of Elevated fire weather conditions may be possible across South-Central Texas where less rainfall is forecast. Fuel guidance suggests that fuels are not expected to become sufficiently dry. An active pattern will continue, favoring southerly storm track and enhanced westerly flow through the end of the extended D4 - Saturday through D8 - Wednesday. Fuels across the southern Plains may experience some drying, with potential for Elevated to Critical fire weather concerns to develop. The best potential for drying will be across portions of southwestern and far western Texas where less precipitation is likely along with multiple rounds of windy/dry conditions. Uncertainty in the status of fuels and potential for multiple rounds of precipitation leaves predictability too low to include any areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 01/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 PM CST Wed Jan 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low through the extended period. A trough across the central US on D3 Friday will bring increasing surface winds but also potential for widespread precipitation across the central and southern Plains. A small corridor of Elevated fire weather conditions may be possible across South-Central Texas where less rainfall is forecast. Fuel guidance suggests that fuels are not expected to become sufficiently dry. An active pattern will continue, favoring southerly storm track and enhanced westerly flow through the end of the extended D4 - Saturday through D8 - Wednesday. Fuels across the southern Plains may experience some drying, with potential for Elevated to Critical fire weather concerns to develop. The best potential for drying will be across portions of southwestern and far western Texas where less precipitation is likely along with multiple rounds of windy/dry conditions. Uncertainty in the status of fuels and potential for multiple rounds of precipitation leaves predictability too low to include any areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 01/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Wed Jan 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... No appreciable changes warranted this outlook with prior reasoning still valid. Based on latest observations, only minor trimming appears warranted to the western portion of the CA thunder lines. ..Grams.. 01/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Wed Jan 03 2024/ ...FL Gulf coast tonight... A southern-stream shortwave trough will continue eastward over the Gulf coast today and off the southeast Atlantic coast tonight, with only a weak surface reflection of the midlevel wave. The majority of the surface warm sector with the Gulf coast trough will remain offshore, with only a small part of the unstable warm sector expected to reach the west central FL coast tonight. Still, marginal midlevel lapse rates and low-level moistening will tend to limit buoyancy over land, which will be greatest after low-level shear and forcing for ascent begin to weaken. A strong storm might approach the Tampa area tonight, but the severe threat appears too limited to justify adding an outlook area. ...Southern CA/NV into AZ through tonight... Low-topped convection with isolated lightning flashes will be possible today along the central/southern CA coasts in association with relatively steep low-midlevel lapse rates beneath the midlevel thermal trough, as the midlevel trough moves from central/southern CA toward southern NV. Isolated lightning flashes will also be possible with pockets of weak destabilization as the midlevel vorticity center moves over southern NV this afternoon/evening. Midlevel cooling/moistening could also support isolated lightning flashes with weak convection overnight in the zone of ascent preceding the midlevel trough over southeast AZ. Read more View the full article

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Wed Jan 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... No appreciable changes warranted this outlook with prior reasoning still valid. Based on latest observations, only minor trimming appears warranted to the western portion of the CA thunder lines. ..Grams.. 01/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Wed Jan 03 2024/ ...FL Gulf coast tonight... A southern-stream shortwave trough will continue eastward over the Gulf coast today and off the southeast Atlantic coast tonight, with only a weak surface reflection of the midlevel wave. The majority of the surface warm sector with the Gulf coast trough will remain offshore, with only a small part of the unstable warm sector expected to reach the west central FL coast tonight. Still, marginal midlevel lapse rates and low-level moistening will tend to limit buoyancy over land, which will be greatest after low-level shear and forcing for ascent begin to weaken. A strong storm might approach the Tampa area tonight, but the severe threat appears too limited to justify adding an outlook area. ...Southern CA/NV into AZ through tonight... Low-topped convection with isolated lightning flashes will be possible today along the central/southern CA coasts in association with relatively steep low-midlevel lapse rates beneath the midlevel thermal trough, as the midlevel trough moves from central/southern CA toward southern NV. Isolated lightning flashes will also be possible with pockets of weak destabilization as the midlevel vorticity center moves over southern NV this afternoon/evening. Midlevel cooling/moistening could also support isolated lightning flashes with weak convection overnight in the zone of ascent preceding the midlevel trough over southeast AZ. Read more View the full article

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Wed Jan 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... No appreciable changes warranted this outlook with prior reasoning still valid. Based on latest observations, only minor trimming appears warranted to the western portion of the CA thunder lines. ..Grams.. 01/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Wed Jan 03 2024/ ...FL Gulf coast tonight... A southern-stream shortwave trough will continue eastward over the Gulf coast today and off the southeast Atlantic coast tonight, with only a weak surface reflection of the midlevel wave. The majority of the surface warm sector with the Gulf coast trough will remain offshore, with only a small part of the unstable warm sector expected to reach the west central FL coast tonight. Still, marginal midlevel lapse rates and low-level moistening will tend to limit buoyancy over land, which will be greatest after low-level shear and forcing for ascent begin to weaken. A strong storm might approach the Tampa area tonight, but the severe threat appears too limited to justify adding an outlook area. ...Southern CA/NV into AZ through tonight... Low-topped convection with isolated lightning flashes will be possible today along the central/southern CA coasts in association with relatively steep low-midlevel lapse rates beneath the midlevel thermal trough, as the midlevel trough moves from central/southern CA toward southern NV. Isolated lightning flashes will also be possible with pockets of weak destabilization as the midlevel vorticity center moves over southern NV this afternoon/evening. Midlevel cooling/moistening could also support isolated lightning flashes with weak convection overnight in the zone of ascent preceding the midlevel trough over southeast AZ. Read more View the full article

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Wed Jan 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... No appreciable changes warranted this outlook with prior reasoning still valid. Based on latest observations, only minor trimming appears warranted to the western portion of the CA thunder lines. ..Grams.. 01/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Wed Jan 03 2024/ ...FL Gulf coast tonight... A southern-stream shortwave trough will continue eastward over the Gulf coast today and off the southeast Atlantic coast tonight, with only a weak surface reflection of the midlevel wave. The majority of the surface warm sector with the Gulf coast trough will remain offshore, with only a small part of the unstable warm sector expected to reach the west central FL coast tonight. Still, marginal midlevel lapse rates and low-level moistening will tend to limit buoyancy over land, which will be greatest after low-level shear and forcing for ascent begin to weaken. A strong storm might approach the Tampa area tonight, but the severe threat appears too limited to justify adding an outlook area. ...Southern CA/NV into AZ through tonight... Low-topped convection with isolated lightning flashes will be possible today along the central/southern CA coasts in association with relatively steep low-midlevel lapse rates beneath the midlevel thermal trough, as the midlevel trough moves from central/southern CA toward southern NV. Isolated lightning flashes will also be possible with pockets of weak destabilization as the midlevel vorticity center moves over southern NV this afternoon/evening. Midlevel cooling/moistening could also support isolated lightning flashes with weak convection overnight in the zone of ascent preceding the midlevel trough over southeast AZ. Read more View the full article

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Wed Jan 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The D2 Fire Weather Outlook requires no changes. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 01/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CST Wed Jan 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears limited for Thursday for much of the country, though regional concerns may materialize across southern New Mexico into Southwest Texas. The upper low currently off the CA coast is forecast to reach the Four Corners region by Thursday morning with an attendant surface low over central NM. A trailing Pacific cold front should sweep through southern NM and southwest TX through the afternoon. Ensemble guidance shows reasonably good agreement in sustained winds above 15 mph, possibly gusting as high as 30-35 mph. Little in the way of temperature reductions are currently anticipated behind the front, and the westerly flow regime should promote downslope warming/drying. However, most solutions hint at isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms along the front, which may negate recent days of modest drying. Furthermore, scattered cloud cover may also modulate RH reductions. While the potential for elevated fire weather conditions is noted, uncertainties regarding rain chances and cloud cover preclude highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Wed Jan 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The D2 Fire Weather Outlook requires no changes. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 01/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CST Wed Jan 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears limited for Thursday for much of the country, though regional concerns may materialize across southern New Mexico into Southwest Texas. The upper low currently off the CA coast is forecast to reach the Four Corners region by Thursday morning with an attendant surface low over central NM. A trailing Pacific cold front should sweep through southern NM and southwest TX through the afternoon. Ensemble guidance shows reasonably good agreement in sustained winds above 15 mph, possibly gusting as high as 30-35 mph. Little in the way of temperature reductions are currently anticipated behind the front, and the westerly flow regime should promote downslope warming/drying. However, most solutions hint at isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms along the front, which may negate recent days of modest drying. Furthermore, scattered cloud cover may also modulate RH reductions. While the potential for elevated fire weather conditions is noted, uncertainties regarding rain chances and cloud cover preclude highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Wed Jan 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The D2 Fire Weather Outlook requires no changes. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 01/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CST Wed Jan 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears limited for Thursday for much of the country, though regional concerns may materialize across southern New Mexico into Southwest Texas. The upper low currently off the CA coast is forecast to reach the Four Corners region by Thursday morning with an attendant surface low over central NM. A trailing Pacific cold front should sweep through southern NM and southwest TX through the afternoon. Ensemble guidance shows reasonably good agreement in sustained winds above 15 mph, possibly gusting as high as 30-35 mph. Little in the way of temperature reductions are currently anticipated behind the front, and the westerly flow regime should promote downslope warming/drying. However, most solutions hint at isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms along the front, which may negate recent days of modest drying. Furthermore, scattered cloud cover may also modulate RH reductions. While the potential for elevated fire weather conditions is noted, uncertainties regarding rain chances and cloud cover preclude highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 AM CST Wed Jan 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through early Friday. ...TX vicinity... A pronounced shortwave trough over AZ will move east into the southern Great Plains through early Friday. Forcing for ascent driven by mid-level height falls ahead of this wave in conjunction with steep mid-level lapse rates may compensate for limited low-level moisture to yield scant elevated buoyancy. Sporadic lightning flashes will be possible within a confined convective band from east NM to central TX, although overall coverage should remain very isolated. Greater thunder potential will occur early Friday morning towards the TX coastal plain as low-level warm theta-e advection yields increasing moisture from the western Gulf. This activity should remain elevated over land, with minor surface cyclogenesis anticipated just offshore in the northwest Gulf. A weak supercell is possible along the immediate middle/upper TX Gulf Coast vicinity towards 12Z, but the bulk of intensifying deep convection should remain offshore. ..Grams.. 01/03/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 AM CST Wed Jan 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through early Friday. ...TX vicinity... A pronounced shortwave trough over AZ will move east into the southern Great Plains through early Friday. Forcing for ascent driven by mid-level height falls ahead of this wave in conjunction with steep mid-level lapse rates may compensate for limited low-level moisture to yield scant elevated buoyancy. Sporadic lightning flashes will be possible within a confined convective band from east NM to central TX, although overall coverage should remain very isolated. Greater thunder potential will occur early Friday morning towards the TX coastal plain as low-level warm theta-e advection yields increasing moisture from the western Gulf. This activity should remain elevated over land, with minor surface cyclogenesis anticipated just offshore in the northwest Gulf. A weak supercell is possible along the immediate middle/upper TX Gulf Coast vicinity towards 12Z, but the bulk of intensifying deep convection should remain offshore. ..Grams.. 01/03/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 AM CST Wed Jan 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through early Friday. ...TX vicinity... A pronounced shortwave trough over AZ will move east into the southern Great Plains through early Friday. Forcing for ascent driven by mid-level height falls ahead of this wave in conjunction with steep mid-level lapse rates may compensate for limited low-level moisture to yield scant elevated buoyancy. Sporadic lightning flashes will be possible within a confined convective band from east NM to central TX, although overall coverage should remain very isolated. Greater thunder potential will occur early Friday morning towards the TX coastal plain as low-level warm theta-e advection yields increasing moisture from the western Gulf. This activity should remain elevated over land, with minor surface cyclogenesis anticipated just offshore in the northwest Gulf. A weak supercell is possible along the immediate middle/upper TX Gulf Coast vicinity towards 12Z, but the bulk of intensifying deep convection should remain offshore. ..Grams.. 01/03/2024 Read more View the full article