NorthGeorgiaWX

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a split upper flow regime over western North America. A mid-level low initially near the CA/Baja California border will move east along the international border and reach NM/Chihuahua by early Tuesday morning. Strong mid-level forcing for ascent and cold-air advection in the mid levels will seemingly support an increased chance for convection late this evening over southeastern AZ. This corridor of increased shower/potential thunderstorm activity will spread east overnight into southwestern NM. Elsewhere, a few thunderstorms are possible early this morning over mainly the shelf waters of the upper coast of TX and southwestern LA. Dry/stable conditions over the remaining portion of the Lower 48 states will be hostile to thunderstorm development. ..Smith.. 01/01/2024 Read more View the full article

Special Weather Statement issued January 01 at 7:01AM EST by NWSView the full article

Dense Fog Advisory issued January 01 at 6:38AM EST until January 01 at 10:00AM EST by NWSView the full article

Special Weather Statement issued January 01 at 5:37AM EST by NWSView the full article

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential is expected to remain low on Day 4/Thursday as a surface cold front clears central/south FL and high pressure dominates much of the central/eastern states. A progressive upper pattern will likely continue across the CONUS through the extended forecast period, with another upper trough forecast to move from the Southwest over the southern Plains and eventually the Southeast from Day 5/Friday into Day 6/Saturday. While low-level moisture should remain fairly limited over land, there may be some potential for surface-based thunderstorms along/near the TX Coast Friday afternoon/evening, and from the central Gulf Coast to FL/GA on Saturday. Predictability regarding instability being sufficient for a severe threat remains low across these areas, but trends will be monitored. Medium-range guidance shows good agreement that another upper trough will amplify and strengthen around Day 7/Sunday into Day 8/Monday across the western states and Southwest. As this system ejects over the southern Plains early next week, inland/northward advance of low-level moisture should occur across parts of TX and the lower MS Valley as a surface low quickly deepens across these regions. There are still some timing differences in the progression of this pronounced upper trough/low and related surface features. Still, both forecast instability and deep-layer shear suggest a severe threat may materialize over parts of central/eastern TX into the lower MS Valley Monday into Monday night. This area of interest will be closely monitored for increasing severe potential and possible/eventual introduction of a 15% severe area pending greater predictability. Read more View the full article

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential is expected to remain low on Day 4/Thursday as a surface cold front clears central/south FL and high pressure dominates much of the central/eastern states. A progressive upper pattern will likely continue across the CONUS through the extended forecast period, with another upper trough forecast to move from the Southwest over the southern Plains and eventually the Southeast from Day 5/Friday into Day 6/Saturday. While low-level moisture should remain fairly limited over land, there may be some potential for surface-based thunderstorms along/near the TX Coast Friday afternoon/evening, and from the central Gulf Coast to FL/GA on Saturday. Predictability regarding instability being sufficient for a severe threat remains low across these areas, but trends will be monitored. Medium-range guidance shows good agreement that another upper trough will amplify and strengthen around Day 7/Sunday into Day 8/Monday across the western states and Southwest. As this system ejects over the southern Plains early next week, inland/northward advance of low-level moisture should occur across parts of TX and the lower MS Valley as a surface low quickly deepens across these regions. There are still some timing differences in the progression of this pronounced upper trough/low and related surface features. Still, both forecast instability and deep-layer shear suggest a severe threat may materialize over parts of central/eastern TX into the lower MS Valley Monday into Monday night. This area of interest will be closely monitored for increasing severe potential and possible/eventual introduction of a 15% severe area pending greater predictability. Read more View the full article

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential is expected to remain low on Day 4/Thursday as a surface cold front clears central/south FL and high pressure dominates much of the central/eastern states. A progressive upper pattern will likely continue across the CONUS through the extended forecast period, with another upper trough forecast to move from the Southwest over the southern Plains and eventually the Southeast from Day 5/Friday into Day 6/Saturday. While low-level moisture should remain fairly limited over land, there may be some potential for surface-based thunderstorms along/near the TX Coast Friday afternoon/evening, and from the central Gulf Coast to FL/GA on Saturday. Predictability regarding instability being sufficient for a severe threat remains low across these areas, but trends will be monitored. Medium-range guidance shows good agreement that another upper trough will amplify and strengthen around Day 7/Sunday into Day 8/Monday across the western states and Southwest. As this system ejects over the southern Plains early next week, inland/northward advance of low-level moisture should occur across parts of TX and the lower MS Valley as a surface low quickly deepens across these regions. There are still some timing differences in the progression of this pronounced upper trough/low and related surface features. Still, both forecast instability and deep-layer shear suggest a severe threat may materialize over parts of central/eastern TX into the lower MS Valley Monday into Monday night. This area of interest will be closely monitored for increasing severe potential and possible/eventual introduction of a 15% severe area pending greater predictability. Read more View the full article

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur across parts of the Southeast and coastal California on Wednesday. Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A southern-stream shortwave trough should move quickly eastward over the northern Gulf of Mexico and Southeast on Wednesday. An associated weak surface low is likewise forecast to develop eastward over the northern Gulf shelf waters and north FL through the period. Most guidance continues to indicate that rich low-level moisture will remain displaced offshore/south of the central Gulf Coast, and west of the FL Gulf Coast. While some chance for elevated thunderstorms may exist owing to weak MUCAPE inland, appreciable severe potential over land currently appears low. Isolated convection also appears possible, mainly Wednesday morning, across parts of coastal CA as cold temperatures aloft and large-scale ascent associated with an upper trough move from the eastern Pacific over this area. ..Gleason.. 01/01/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur across parts of the Southeast and coastal California on Wednesday. Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A southern-stream shortwave trough should move quickly eastward over the northern Gulf of Mexico and Southeast on Wednesday. An associated weak surface low is likewise forecast to develop eastward over the northern Gulf shelf waters and north FL through the period. Most guidance continues to indicate that rich low-level moisture will remain displaced offshore/south of the central Gulf Coast, and west of the FL Gulf Coast. While some chance for elevated thunderstorms may exist owing to weak MUCAPE inland, appreciable severe potential over land currently appears low. Isolated convection also appears possible, mainly Wednesday morning, across parts of coastal CA as cold temperatures aloft and large-scale ascent associated with an upper trough move from the eastern Pacific over this area. ..Gleason.. 01/01/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Very low fire weather potential is expected for Tuesday. Despite the passage of a progressive shortwave trough across the southern Rockies within the next 24-48 hours, the ongoing cold frontal surge towards the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and attendant surface high over the Plains will mute any surface mass response over the southern High Plains. Because of this, seasonably cool conditions with benign winds are anticipated across southeastern NM into west TX where fuels have been drying in recent days. Additionally, extensive cloud cover associated with the upper low should limit diurnal heating and afternoon RH reductions, resulting in low fire concerns. ..Moore.. 01/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be minimal for today. Early-morning surface observations show a cold front pushing southward across the southern Plains and lower MS River Valley. This front is expected to reach the Gulf Coast by mid to late morning. In its wake, cooler temperatures and generally benign winds are anticipated as surface high pressure builds over the Plains/mid-MS River Valley. These cool/calm conditions will limit the potential for fire weather concerns, including over the southern High Plains were fuel drying has been ongoing in recent days. ..Moore.. 01/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may occur Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night across parts of Texas and southern Louisiana. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A strong southern-stream upper trough/low with associated 50-65 kt mid-level jet will progress quickly eastward across northern Mexico and the southern Plains on Tuesday. Surface high pressure should remain entrenched over much of the TN Valley and Southeast through the period, which will likely stunt the northward advance of rich low-level moisture (mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints) over the western and northern Gulf of Mexico. Even so, a strengthening southerly low-level jet Tuesday afternoon and evening across parts of south/central TX should aid in enough elevated moisture to support weak MUCAPE across these areas. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will probably develop beginning Tuesday afternoon well north of a surface front draped across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico as ascent preceding the upper trough overspreads the southern Plains. This convection should remain elevated through Tuesday night as it moves eastward across parts of TX and eventually southern LA. Severe thunderstorms are not expected for this region given generally 100-500 J/kg MUCAPE forecast, even though deep-layer shear should be strong. Farther west, occasional lighting flashes may be noted with low-topped convection moving onshore along/near the northern CA Coast in association with an eastward-moving upper trough, mainly from late Tuesday evening into early Wednesday morning. ..Gleason.. 01/01/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 PM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential will remain confined to portions of the Southwest late tonight. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential generally remains low for today and tonight across much of the country with the exception of the southern AZ/NM border. A compact shortwave trough off the southern CA coast will move inland through the day, reaching AZ/NM by early Tuesday morning. Cool temperatures aloft and broad-scale ascent associated with the approaching upper low will promote mid-level destabilization heading into the overnight hours. Despite a substantial dry layer in place across the region, advected PWAT imagery shows higher-quality moisture in the 850-700 mb layer that was not sampled by 00 UTC soundings and should move inland with the low. Consequently, sufficiently lift, moisture, and destabilization should be in place for at least isolated lightning flashes. To the east, a positively-tilted upper trough over the Midwest will gradually shift east over the next 24 hours as shortwave ridging builds across the Plains. At the surface, high pressure will continue to build across the Plains and mid-MS River Valley as a cold front pushes south into the Gulf of Mexico. A few lightning flashes are possible along the TX Gulf Coast this morning as the front moves offshore, but an early frontal passage offset from peak diurnal warming, coupled with marginal lapse-rates and dry air aloft, casts doubt on the lightning potential over land. ..Moore.. 01/01/2024 Read more View the full article

Flood Warning issued December 31 at 9:08PM EST until January 01 at 4:00PM EST by NWSView the full article

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low across the CONUS through the extended period. Continued cool and wet conditions are expected across the western and eastern US, keeping fuels moist. A weak shortwave will move across the central US on D4 - Wednesday before a deeper trough ejects into the Plains late in the period by D5 Thursday - D6 Friday bringing an increase in surface winds but also potential for widespread precipitation across the central and southern Plains. A small corridor of Elevated fire weather conditions may be possible across South-Central Texas where less rainfall is forecast. Overall, cool and wet conditions along with seasonably moist fuels will keep fire spread potential low across the CONUS. ..Thornton.. 12/31/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are unlikely through early New Year's Day. ...20Z Update... No changes to the ongoing forecast are needed. ..Wendt.. 12/31/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0958 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023/ ...Synopsis... Within a split flow regime, a series of southern stream shortwave troughs will progress eastward from off the southern CA coast to TX. A modifying air mass will spread northward over the western Gulf of Mexico to the TX coast by late tonight, where weak buoyancy will develop. However, thermodynamic profiles are not expected to be particularly favorable for charge separation inland of a weak coastal trough, with isolated showers/convection expected to remain too shallow for lightning production. Read more View the full article

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are unlikely through early New Year's Day. ...20Z Update... No changes to the ongoing forecast are needed. ..Wendt.. 12/31/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0958 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023/ ...Synopsis... Within a split flow regime, a series of southern stream shortwave troughs will progress eastward from off the southern CA coast to TX. A modifying air mass will spread northward over the western Gulf of Mexico to the TX coast by late tonight, where weak buoyancy will develop. However, thermodynamic profiles are not expected to be particularly favorable for charge separation inland of a weak coastal trough, with isolated showers/convection expected to remain too shallow for lightning production. Read more View the full article

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are unlikely through early New Year's Day. ...20Z Update... No changes to the ongoing forecast are needed. ..Wendt.. 12/31/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0958 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023/ ...Synopsis... Within a split flow regime, a series of southern stream shortwave troughs will progress eastward from off the southern CA coast to TX. A modifying air mass will spread northward over the western Gulf of Mexico to the TX coast by late tonight, where weak buoyancy will develop. However, thermodynamic profiles are not expected to be particularly favorable for charge separation inland of a weak coastal trough, with isolated showers/convection expected to remain too shallow for lightning production. Read more View the full article

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The D2 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track with no updates needed. See the previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 12/31/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0130 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears minimal for Monday across the country. Building surface high pressure behind a cold front (currently pushing south/southeast across the Plains and Midwest as of early Sunday morning) will settle into the southern High Plains and mid-MS River Valley. This will favor rather benign conditions with weak winds and cooler temperatures, including over parts of the southern High Plains where conditions have been warm/dry for several days. Consequently, fire weather concerns are limited at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The D2 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track with no updates needed. See the previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 12/31/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0130 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears minimal for Monday across the country. Building surface high pressure behind a cold front (currently pushing south/southeast across the Plains and Midwest as of early Sunday morning) will settle into the southern High Plains and mid-MS River Valley. This will favor rather benign conditions with weak winds and cooler temperatures, including over parts of the southern High Plains where conditions have been warm/dry for several days. Consequently, fire weather concerns are limited at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Potential for thunderstorms appears very low on Monday. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted upper-level trough within the East will continue its progress southeastward before moving offshore late Monday/early Tuesday. Another upper-level trough will move into northern Mexico and the Southwest through the period. At the surface, a cold front will push into the northern Gulf. Presently, the greatest potential for thunderstorms will likely remain offshore along the Gulf cold front. Cooling aloft will support a small increase in elevated buoyancy in parts of the Southwest. Given the dry air currently in place within the region and little change expected, thermodynamic profiles are not anticipated to support much if any lightning. Isolated lightning flashes could occur near the Arizona/New Mexico border vicinity, but should remain well below the 10% coverage threshold. ..Wendt.. 12/31/2023 Read more View the full article

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Potential for thunderstorms appears very low on Monday. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted upper-level trough within the East will continue its progress southeastward before moving offshore late Monday/early Tuesday. Another upper-level trough will move into northern Mexico and the Southwest through the period. At the surface, a cold front will push into the northern Gulf. Presently, the greatest potential for thunderstorms will likely remain offshore along the Gulf cold front. Cooling aloft will support a small increase in elevated buoyancy in parts of the Southwest. Given the dry air currently in place within the region and little change expected, thermodynamic profiles are not anticipated to support much if any lightning. Isolated lightning flashes could occur near the Arizona/New Mexico border vicinity, but should remain well below the 10% coverage threshold. ..Wendt.. 12/31/2023 Read more View the full article

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Potential for thunderstorms appears very low on Monday. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted upper-level trough within the East will continue its progress southeastward before moving offshore late Monday/early Tuesday. Another upper-level trough will move into northern Mexico and the Southwest through the period. At the surface, a cold front will push into the northern Gulf. Presently, the greatest potential for thunderstorms will likely remain offshore along the Gulf cold front. Cooling aloft will support a small increase in elevated buoyancy in parts of the Southwest. Given the dry air currently in place within the region and little change expected, thermodynamic profiles are not anticipated to support much if any lightning. Isolated lightning flashes could occur near the Arizona/New Mexico border vicinity, but should remain well below the 10% coverage threshold. ..Wendt.. 12/31/2023 Read more View the full article

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Potential for thunderstorms appears very low on Monday. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted upper-level trough within the East will continue its progress southeastward before moving offshore late Monday/early Tuesday. Another upper-level trough will move into northern Mexico and the Southwest through the period. At the surface, a cold front will push into the northern Gulf. Presently, the greatest potential for thunderstorms will likely remain offshore along the Gulf cold front. Cooling aloft will support a small increase in elevated buoyancy in parts of the Southwest. Given the dry air currently in place within the region and little change expected, thermodynamic profiles are not anticipated to support much if any lightning. Isolated lightning flashes could occur near the Arizona/New Mexico border vicinity, but should remain well below the 10% coverage threshold. ..Wendt.. 12/31/2023 Read more View the full article

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1051 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 311700Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The current D1 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 12/31/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today, but localized concerns are possible across southern NM into southwest TX. A dry air mass remains in place from central CO into southern NM and southwest TX with dewpoints in the single digits to low teens. This air mass will largely remain in place through the afternoon, resulting in another day of RH minimums in the low teens across much of the region. Weak lee troughing along the southern High Plains is anticipated as an upper disturbance approaches from the west, but will be modulated by the arrival of a cold front this afternoon. The muted surface pressure gradient, compounded by somewhat shallow boundary-layer mixing, should limit wind speeds below elevated criteria for most of the southern High Plains. One exception to this is in the lee of more prominent terrain features across southern NM to southwest TX where winds may gust upwards of 30-40 mph as mid-level flow strengthens through the day. This could result in localized elevated to critical fire weather conditions. However, highlights are withheld given the limited spatial extent of the threat and ERCs largely below the 50th percentile. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article