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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1051 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 311700Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The current D1 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 12/31/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today, but localized concerns are possible across southern NM into southwest TX. A dry air mass remains in place from central CO into southern NM and southwest TX with dewpoints in the single digits to low teens. This air mass will largely remain in place through the afternoon, resulting in another day of RH minimums in the low teens across much of the region. Weak lee troughing along the southern High Plains is anticipated as an upper disturbance approaches from the west, but will be modulated by the arrival of a cold front this afternoon. The muted surface pressure gradient, compounded by somewhat shallow boundary-layer mixing, should limit wind speeds below elevated criteria for most of the southern High Plains. One exception to this is in the lee of more prominent terrain features across southern NM to southwest TX where winds may gust upwards of 30-40 mph as mid-level flow strengthens through the day. This could result in localized elevated to critical fire weather conditions. However, highlights are withheld given the limited spatial extent of the threat and ERCs largely below the 50th percentile. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0958 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 311630Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are unlikely through early New Year's Day. ...Synopsis... Within a split flow regime, a series of southern stream shortwave troughs will progress eastward from off the southern CA coast to TX. A modifying air mass will spread northward over the western Gulf of Mexico to the TX coast by late tonight, where weak buoyancy will develop. However, thermodynamic profiles are not expected to be particularly favorable for charge separation inland of a weak coastal trough, with isolated showers/convection expected to remain too shallow for lightning production. ..Thompson/Squitieri.. 12/31/2023 Read more View the full article

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0958 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 311630Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are unlikely through early New Year's Day. ...Synopsis... Within a split flow regime, a series of southern stream shortwave troughs will progress eastward from off the southern CA coast to TX. A modifying air mass will spread northward over the western Gulf of Mexico to the TX coast by late tonight, where weak buoyancy will develop. However, thermodynamic profiles are not expected to be particularly favorable for charge separation inland of a weak coastal trough, with isolated showers/convection expected to remain too shallow for lightning production. ..Thompson/Squitieri.. 12/31/2023 Read more View the full article

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0958 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 311630Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are unlikely through early New Year's Day. ...Synopsis... Within a split flow regime, a series of southern stream shortwave troughs will progress eastward from off the southern CA coast to TX. A modifying air mass will spread northward over the western Gulf of Mexico to the TX coast by late tonight, where weak buoyancy will develop. However, thermodynamic profiles are not expected to be particularly favorable for charge separation inland of a weak coastal trough, with isolated showers/convection expected to remain too shallow for lightning production. ..Thompson/Squitieri.. 12/31/2023 Read more View the full article

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0958 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 311630Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are unlikely through early New Year's Day. ...Synopsis... Within a split flow regime, a series of southern stream shortwave troughs will progress eastward from off the southern CA coast to TX. A modifying air mass will spread northward over the western Gulf of Mexico to the TX coast by late tonight, where weak buoyancy will develop. However, thermodynamic profiles are not expected to be particularly favorable for charge separation inland of a weak coastal trough, with isolated showers/convection expected to remain too shallow for lightning production. ..Thompson/Squitieri.. 12/31/2023 Read more View the full article

Flood Warning issued December 31 at 8:27AM EST until January 01 at 4:00PM EST by NWSView the full article

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight over the continental USA. ...Synopsis/Forecast... A moderately amplified but progressive split upper-flow regime will exist over much of the CONUS, particularly to the west of an elongated upper trough over the Midwest and East. The prevalence of high pressure east of the Rockies and relatively dry/stable conditions will considerably limit the potential for thunderstorms. Air mass modification will occur with early stage low-level moisture return over the western Gulf of Mexico, to the south of a southward-advancing front tonight across Texas and Louisiana. Forecast soundings suggest that thermodynamic profiles will not be particularly conducive to thunderstorms tonight, even while some convective showers may increase late tonight/early Monday toward the Texas coastal vicinity. ..Guyer.. 12/31/2023 Read more View the full article

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight over the continental USA. ...Synopsis/Forecast... A moderately amplified but progressive split upper-flow regime will exist over much of the CONUS, particularly to the west of an elongated upper trough over the Midwest and East. The prevalence of high pressure east of the Rockies and relatively dry/stable conditions will considerably limit the potential for thunderstorms. Air mass modification will occur with early stage low-level moisture return over the western Gulf of Mexico, to the south of a southward-advancing front tonight across Texas and Louisiana. Forecast soundings suggest that thermodynamic profiles will not be particularly conducive to thunderstorms tonight, even while some convective showers may increase late tonight/early Monday toward the Texas coastal vicinity. ..Guyer.. 12/31/2023 Read more View the full article

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight over the continental USA. ...Synopsis/Forecast... A moderately amplified but progressive split upper-flow regime will exist over much of the CONUS, particularly to the west of an elongated upper trough over the Midwest and East. The prevalence of high pressure east of the Rockies and relatively dry/stable conditions will considerably limit the potential for thunderstorms. Air mass modification will occur with early stage low-level moisture return over the western Gulf of Mexico, to the south of a southward-advancing front tonight across Texas and Louisiana. Forecast soundings suggest that thermodynamic profiles will not be particularly conducive to thunderstorms tonight, even while some convective showers may increase late tonight/early Monday toward the Texas coastal vicinity. ..Guyer.. 12/31/2023 Read more View the full article

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight over the continental USA. ...Synopsis/Forecast... A moderately amplified but progressive split upper-flow regime will exist over much of the CONUS, particularly to the west of an elongated upper trough over the Midwest and East. The prevalence of high pressure east of the Rockies and relatively dry/stable conditions will considerably limit the potential for thunderstorms. Air mass modification will occur with early stage low-level moisture return over the western Gulf of Mexico, to the south of a southward-advancing front tonight across Texas and Louisiana. Forecast soundings suggest that thermodynamic profiles will not be particularly conducive to thunderstorms tonight, even while some convective showers may increase late tonight/early Monday toward the Texas coastal vicinity. ..Guyer.. 12/31/2023 Read more View the full article

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight over the continental USA. ...Synopsis/Forecast... A moderately amplified but progressive split upper-flow regime will exist over much of the CONUS, particularly to the west of an elongated upper trough over the Midwest and East. The prevalence of high pressure east of the Rockies and relatively dry/stable conditions will considerably limit the potential for thunderstorms. Air mass modification will occur with early stage low-level moisture return over the western Gulf of Mexico, to the south of a southward-advancing front tonight across Texas and Louisiana. Forecast soundings suggest that thermodynamic profiles will not be particularly conducive to thunderstorms tonight, even while some convective showers may increase late tonight/early Monday toward the Texas coastal vicinity. ..Guyer.. 12/31/2023 Read more View the full article

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... A southern-stream shortwave trough over the southern Plains will move quickly eastward over the lower MS Valley and Southeast from Day 4/Wednesday into Day 5/Thursday, while eventually merging with another upper trough over the eastern states. A weak surface low should track across the northern Gulf of Mexico in this time frame. With greater low-level moisture forecast to remain confined along/south of a front draped off the Gulf Coast, severe potential over land appears low. Another upper trough/low should advance from the Southwest into the southern Plains and eventually Southeast late this week and next weekend. A large area of surface high pressure and a cold front intrusion deep into the Gulf of Mexico will likely slow the northward return of appreciable low-level moisture in this time frame. Current indications are that the greater low-level moisture should once again generally remain offshore and limit the severe potential over land. But, trends with this system will be closely monitored, as it appears stronger/more amplified than the upper trough described above. Medium-range guidance suggests that yet another upper trough may amplify over the western CONUS next weekend and move towards the southern High Plains towards the end of the forecast period (Day 8/Sunday). There may be a better chance for low-level moisture to advance inland across parts of the southern Plains and lower MS Valley with this system. Still, any severe potential will probably be delayed until after next weekend. Read more View the full article

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... A southern-stream shortwave trough over the southern Plains will move quickly eastward over the lower MS Valley and Southeast from Day 4/Wednesday into Day 5/Thursday, while eventually merging with another upper trough over the eastern states. A weak surface low should track across the northern Gulf of Mexico in this time frame. With greater low-level moisture forecast to remain confined along/south of a front draped off the Gulf Coast, severe potential over land appears low. Another upper trough/low should advance from the Southwest into the southern Plains and eventually Southeast late this week and next weekend. A large area of surface high pressure and a cold front intrusion deep into the Gulf of Mexico will likely slow the northward return of appreciable low-level moisture in this time frame. Current indications are that the greater low-level moisture should once again generally remain offshore and limit the severe potential over land. But, trends with this system will be closely monitored, as it appears stronger/more amplified than the upper trough described above. Medium-range guidance suggests that yet another upper trough may amplify over the western CONUS next weekend and move towards the southern High Plains towards the end of the forecast period (Day 8/Sunday). There may be a better chance for low-level moisture to advance inland across parts of the southern Plains and lower MS Valley with this system. Still, any severe potential will probably be delayed until after next weekend. Read more View the full article

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... A southern-stream shortwave trough over the southern Plains will move quickly eastward over the lower MS Valley and Southeast from Day 4/Wednesday into Day 5/Thursday, while eventually merging with another upper trough over the eastern states. A weak surface low should track across the northern Gulf of Mexico in this time frame. With greater low-level moisture forecast to remain confined along/south of a front draped off the Gulf Coast, severe potential over land appears low. Another upper trough/low should advance from the Southwest into the southern Plains and eventually Southeast late this week and next weekend. A large area of surface high pressure and a cold front intrusion deep into the Gulf of Mexico will likely slow the northward return of appreciable low-level moisture in this time frame. Current indications are that the greater low-level moisture should once again generally remain offshore and limit the severe potential over land. But, trends with this system will be closely monitored, as it appears stronger/more amplified than the upper trough described above. Medium-range guidance suggests that yet another upper trough may amplify over the western CONUS next weekend and move towards the southern High Plains towards the end of the forecast period (Day 8/Sunday). There may be a better chance for low-level moisture to advance inland across parts of the southern Plains and lower MS Valley with this system. Still, any severe potential will probably be delayed until after next weekend. Read more View the full article

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night across parts of Texas and southwest Louisiana. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A strong southern-stream upper trough/low with associated 50-60 kt mid-level jet will progress quickly eastward across northern Mexico and the southern Plains on Tuesday. Surface high pressure should remain entrenched over much of the TN Valley and Southeast through the period, which will likely stunt the northward advance of rich low-level moisture over the western Gulf of Mexico. Even so, a strengthening southerly low-level jet Tuesday afternoon and evening across parts of south/central TX should aid in enough moisture to support weak MUCAPE across these areas. Isolated thunderstorms will probably develop beginning Tuesday afternoon well north of a surface front draped across deep south TX and the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. This convection should remain elevated through Tuesday night as it moves eastward across parts of TX and eventually southwestern LA. Minimal severe risk is evident for this region given generally 100-400 J/kg MUCAPE forecast. ..Gleason.. 12/31/2023 Read more View the full article

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night across parts of Texas and southwest Louisiana. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A strong southern-stream upper trough/low with associated 50-60 kt mid-level jet will progress quickly eastward across northern Mexico and the southern Plains on Tuesday. Surface high pressure should remain entrenched over much of the TN Valley and Southeast through the period, which will likely stunt the northward advance of rich low-level moisture over the western Gulf of Mexico. Even so, a strengthening southerly low-level jet Tuesday afternoon and evening across parts of south/central TX should aid in enough moisture to support weak MUCAPE across these areas. Isolated thunderstorms will probably develop beginning Tuesday afternoon well north of a surface front draped across deep south TX and the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. This convection should remain elevated through Tuesday night as it moves eastward across parts of TX and eventually southwestern LA. Minimal severe risk is evident for this region given generally 100-400 J/kg MUCAPE forecast. ..Gleason.. 12/31/2023 Read more View the full article

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears minimal for Monday across the country. Building surface high pressure behind a cold front (currently pushing south/southeast across the Plains and Midwest as of early Sunday morning) will settle into the southern High Plains and mid-MS River Valley. This will favor rather benign conditions with weak winds and cooler temperatures, including over parts of the southern High Plains where conditions have been warm/dry for several days. Consequently, fire weather concerns are limited at this time. ..Moore.. 12/31/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears minimal for Monday across the country. Building surface high pressure behind a cold front (currently pushing south/southeast across the Plains and Midwest as of early Sunday morning) will settle into the southern High Plains and mid-MS River Valley. This will favor rather benign conditions with weak winds and cooler temperatures, including over parts of the southern High Plains where conditions have been warm/dry for several days. Consequently, fire weather concerns are limited at this time. ..Moore.. 12/31/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today, but localized concerns are possible across southern NM into southwest TX. A dry air mass remains in place from central CO into southern NM and southwest TX with dewpoints in the single digits to low teens. This air mass will largely remain in place through the afternoon, resulting in another day of RH minimums in the low teens across much of the region. Weak lee troughing along the southern High Plains is anticipated as an upper disturbance approaches from the west, but will be modulated by the arrival of a cold front this afternoon. The muted surface pressure gradient, compounded by somewhat shallow boundary-layer mixing, should limit wind speeds below elevated criteria for most of the southern High Plains. One exception to this is in the lee of more prominent terrain features across southern NM to southwest TX where winds may gust upwards of 30-40 mph as mid-level flow strengthens through the day. This could result in localized elevated to critical fire weather conditions. However, highlights are withheld given the limited spatial extent of the threat and ERCs largely below the 50th percentile. ..Moore.. 12/31/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A positively tilted upper trough over the eastern U.S. will continue to move eastward over the Southeast and western Atlantic on Monday. While isolated showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing Monday morning across parts of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, this activity should remain offshore as a surface cold front moves southward over this area through the day. Farther west, a closed upper low off the coast of southern CA will move eastward over northern Mexico and the Southwest through Monday night. Generally dry and/or stable conditions across the CONUS are expected to limit thunderstorm potential over land. ..Gleason.. 12/31/2023 Read more View the full article

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 PM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected today over the continental USA. ...Synopsis... Mean upper troughing from the Great Lakes into much of the East, in combination with ridging over the Rockies and a dry surface air mass, will maintain relatively stable conditions across the CONUS today, with little if any threat of thunderstorms. A meager attempt at moisture return will occur over the western Gulf of Mexico as low-level winds increase late and eventually veer in response to the mid MS/OH Valley trough. However, forecast soundings even over the water indicate shallow boundary layer moisture, with generally low-topped convective showers expected late, producing little lightning. ..Jewell.. 12/31/2023 Read more View the full article

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 PM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected today over the continental USA. ...Synopsis... Mean upper troughing from the Great Lakes into much of the East, in combination with ridging over the Rockies and a dry surface air mass, will maintain relatively stable conditions across the CONUS today, with little if any threat of thunderstorms. A meager attempt at moisture return will occur over the western Gulf of Mexico as low-level winds increase late and eventually veer in response to the mid MS/OH Valley trough. However, forecast soundings even over the water indicate shallow boundary layer moisture, with generally low-topped convective showers expected late, producing little lightning. ..Jewell.. 12/31/2023 Read more View the full article

Flood Warning issued December 30 at 8:23PM EST until January 01 at 1:00PM EST by NWSView the full article

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0638 PM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 310100Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... No thunderstorms forecast. ..Jewell.. 12/31/2023 Read more View the full article

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0638 PM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 310100Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... No thunderstorms forecast. ..Jewell.. 12/31/2023 Read more View the full article