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MD 0009 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND Mesoscale Discussion 0009 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0735 PM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Areas affected...portions of southern New England Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 070135Z - 070730Z SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snow will slowly increase in coverage across portions of southern New England this evening. Snowfall rates of 1-2 in/hr are possible within the heaviest band late this evening into the overnight hours. DISCUSSION...As of 0130 UTC, regional radar and surface analysis showed a broad area of stratiform precipitation ongoing across parts of the Mid Atlantic and southern New England. Associated with an approaching coastal low, periodic moderate to heavy snow/rain has been observed within this precipitation over the last several hours. Slow northeastward progression of the heaviest precip has been noted with the primary east-west oriented band stretching from east-central PA to Long Island Sound. Driven by strong low-level warm advection ahead of the deepening coastal low, moderate to heavy snow should slowly increase in coverage over portions of southern New England late this evening and into the overnight hours. Rates between 1 to 2 in/hour are possible within the primary band, though there remains some uncertainty on how quickly the heaviest snow will lift northward. Light snow has already been reported across parts of RI, MA and CT but, regional model soundings and observed ceilings above 4k feet suggest some low-level dry air remains in place. Inland moisture advection and the approach of the surface low should slowly cool and moisten the low-level thermodynamic profile sufficiently for higher snow rates after 03z. Periods of moderate to heavy snow will likely continue into the overnight hours. ..Lyons.. 01/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM... LAT...LON 41297318 41367356 41487386 41707418 41987436 42317449 42887446 43367362 43527277 43587212 43497158 43137085 43067073 42367073 42187068 41807105 41447191 41377230 41297275 41297318 Read more View the full article

MD 0008 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN PA...SOUTHERN NY...NORTHERN NJ Mesoscale Discussion 0008 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 PM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Areas affected...Central/Eastern PA...Southern NY...Northern NJ Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 062127Z - 070230Z SUMMARY...Snowfall rates around 1"/hr appear probable across this region, with some potential for 2"/hr rates, DISCUSSION...A shortwave trough continues to progress quickly northeastward across WV and VA. A broad precipitation field covers much of the northern Mid-Atlantic states as well as NY, supported by moderate to strong low-level warm advection ahead of the wave. Occasionally heavy snow has been noted across the region over the past few hours, particularly across western and southern PA, where the low-level warm advection/frontogenesis is being augmented by large-scale forcing for ascent near the shortwave trough. This general trend is expected to continue over the next several hours, with heavy snow shifting from western/central PA into western/southern NY. Snowfall rates around 1"/hr appear probable across this region, with some potential for 2"/hr rates, particularly just north of the leading edge of the mid-level dry air. ..Mosier.. 01/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP... LAT...LON 40047754 41157827 41587893 42637815 43097628 42547458 41407392 40157503 39827595 40047754 Read more View the full article

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0647 PM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through early Sunday. ...Discussion... Severe potential has waned since peaking a couple hours ago when a brief tornado was reported near FLL. Deep convection persists from the Dry Tortugas to the south tip of the peninsula but should further decay over the next few hours as weak outflow has become nearly parallel to the deep-layer shear vector. In addition, Key West VWP data has sampled decreasing low to mid-level flow over the past hour, further suggestive of severe potential becoming negligible. Elsewhere, thunder potential will be limited across much of the CONUS outside of the coastal OR vicinity. Here, scattered low-topped convection amid a cool but steep lapse rate environment may yield sporadic lightning flashes tonight. ..Grams.. 01/07/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0647 PM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through early Sunday. ...Discussion... Severe potential has waned since peaking a couple hours ago when a brief tornado was reported near FLL. Deep convection persists from the Dry Tortugas to the south tip of the peninsula but should further decay over the next few hours as weak outflow has become nearly parallel to the deep-layer shear vector. In addition, Key West VWP data has sampled decreasing low to mid-level flow over the past hour, further suggestive of severe potential becoming negligible. Elsewhere, thunder potential will be limited across much of the CONUS outside of the coastal OR vicinity. Here, scattered low-topped convection amid a cool but steep lapse rate environment may yield sporadic lightning flashes tonight. ..Grams.. 01/07/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0647 PM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through early Sunday. ...Discussion... Severe potential has waned since peaking a couple hours ago when a brief tornado was reported near FLL. Deep convection persists from the Dry Tortugas to the south tip of the peninsula but should further decay over the next few hours as weak outflow has become nearly parallel to the deep-layer shear vector. In addition, Key West VWP data has sampled decreasing low to mid-level flow over the past hour, further suggestive of severe potential becoming negligible. Elsewhere, thunder potential will be limited across much of the CONUS outside of the coastal OR vicinity. Here, scattered low-topped convection amid a cool but steep lapse rate environment may yield sporadic lightning flashes tonight. ..Grams.. 01/07/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0647 PM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through early Sunday. ...Discussion... Severe potential has waned since peaking a couple hours ago when a brief tornado was reported near FLL. Deep convection persists from the Dry Tortugas to the south tip of the peninsula but should further decay over the next few hours as weak outflow has become nearly parallel to the deep-layer shear vector. In addition, Key West VWP data has sampled decreasing low to mid-level flow over the past hour, further suggestive of severe potential becoming negligible. Elsewhere, thunder potential will be limited across much of the CONUS outside of the coastal OR vicinity. Here, scattered low-topped convection amid a cool but steep lapse rate environment may yield sporadic lightning flashes tonight. ..Grams.. 01/07/2024 Read more View the full article

MD 0008 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN PA...SOUTHERN NY...NORTHERN NJ Mesoscale Discussion 0008 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 PM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Areas affected...Central/Eastern PA...Southern NY...Northern NJ Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 062127Z - 070230Z SUMMARY...Snowfall rates around 1"/hr appear probable across this region, with some potential for 2"/hr rates, DISCUSSION...A shortwave trough continues to progress quickly northeastward across WV and VA. A broad precipitation field covers much of the northern Mid-Atlantic states as well as NY, supported by moderate to strong low-level warm advection ahead of the wave. Occasionally heavy snow has been noted across the region over the past few hours, particularly across western and southern PA, where the low-level warm advection/frontogenesis is being augmented by large-scale forcing for ascent near the shortwave trough. This general trend is expected to continue over the next several hours, with heavy snow shifting from western/central PA into western/southern NY. Snowfall rates around 1"/hr appear probable across this region, with some potential for 2"/hr rates, particularly just north of the leading edge of the mid-level dry air. ..Mosier.. 01/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP... LAT...LON 40047754 41157827 41587893 42637815 43097628 42547458 41407392 40157503 39827595 40047754 Read more View the full article

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z A progressive upper-level pattern is expected through next weekend. Shortwave troughs are forecast to move across the southern U.S. periodically. This pattern will favor cool/cold conditions across northern/central portions of the CONUS as well as a fairly broad swath of precipitation across most areas, particularly the West and Southeast/East. Repeated surface low development in the central/southern High Plains will drive periods of elevated to critical meteorological conditions in parts of these regions. Model guidance still shows a relative minimum in precipitation in the Trans-Pecos and adjacent parts of southern New Mexico. While local fire concerns could occur there, fuels would have to dry sufficiently in the coming days before greater/broader concerns would be possible. Critical fire weather potential remains low this period. ..Wendt.. 01/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z A progressive upper-level pattern is expected through next weekend. Shortwave troughs are forecast to move across the southern U.S. periodically. This pattern will favor cool/cold conditions across northern/central portions of the CONUS as well as a fairly broad swath of precipitation across most areas, particularly the West and Southeast/East. Repeated surface low development in the central/southern High Plains will drive periods of elevated to critical meteorological conditions in parts of these regions. Model guidance still shows a relative minimum in precipitation in the Trans-Pecos and adjacent parts of southern New Mexico. While local fire concerns could occur there, fuels would have to dry sufficiently in the coming days before greater/broader concerns would be possible. Critical fire weather potential remains low this period. ..Wendt.. 01/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z A progressive upper-level pattern is expected through next weekend. Shortwave troughs are forecast to move across the southern U.S. periodically. This pattern will favor cool/cold conditions across northern/central portions of the CONUS as well as a fairly broad swath of precipitation across most areas, particularly the West and Southeast/East. Repeated surface low development in the central/southern High Plains will drive periods of elevated to critical meteorological conditions in parts of these regions. Model guidance still shows a relative minimum in precipitation in the Trans-Pecos and adjacent parts of southern New Mexico. While local fire concerns could occur there, fuels would have to dry sufficiently in the coming days before greater/broader concerns would be possible. Critical fire weather potential remains low this period. ..Wendt.. 01/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

MD 0007 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTH FL Mesoscale Discussion 0007 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Areas affected...Parts of south FL Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 062054Z - 062300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Some threat for a tornado and/or locally damaging wind will persist through the remainder of the afternoon. DISCUSSION...Occasional low/midlevel rotation has been noted with storms moving across south FL this afternoon, most recently to the southwest of Palm Beach. Widespread cloudiness and weak midlevel lapse rates (as noted on the 18Z KEY sounding) continue to limit instability across the region, though rich moisture (with low 70s F dewpoints) is supporting MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, sufficient to sustain organized convection within a favorably sheared environment. While low-level flow is expected to gradually weaken and veer with time, 0-1 km SRH still in the 150-250 m2/s2 range (as noted in recent objective mesoanalyses and the KAMX VWP) will support the potential for a tornado or two across south FL through the remainder of the afternoon, if any supercells can be sustained. Some potential for locally damaging wind may also develop, especially where somewhat stronger heating has been noted this afternoon. With the threat expected to remain rather isolated and limited in areal extent, watch issuance is considered unlikely. ..Dean/Hart.. 01/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB... LAT...LON 25628137 26108122 26888039 26998015 26777999 26238003 25758014 25448030 25448085 25388113 25628137 Read more View the full article

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTH FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms may impact parts of the Florida Peninsula today, with a threat for isolated damaging winds and/or a tornado. A line of thunderstorms across southern Florida may continue to pose some threat for damaging wind gusts or a tornado or two through the afternoon and early evening before moving offshore. The greatest potential for isolated damaging wind gusts will likely be associated with the more progressive line segment oriented northeast to southwest. In addition, occasional low-level rotation has been observed with low-topped supercells ahead of this line. The AMX VWP shows a wind profile which should be sufficient for some tornado potential, but the lack of stronger forcing and more robust updraft development should mitigate the tornado threat. ..Bentley.. 01/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024/ ...South FL... Morning surface analysis shows a low over the western Carolinas, with a cold front extending southward across SC into north FL. Widespread showers and occasional thunderstorms are occurring ahead of the cold front over central/south FL, with several cells showing transient supercell and bowing structures southwest of Tampa Bay over the past 1-2 hours. The air mass ahead of these storms is quite moist with dewpoints in the lower 70s, but widespread clouds and precip immediately ahead of the cells is limiting destabilization. Shear profiles are strong, and therefore will maintain the SLGT risk for isolated tornadoes or damaging wind gusts over parts of south FL this afternoon. Refer to MCD #5 for further short-term details. ...NC Coast this afternoon... Model guidance continues to suggest that cyclogenesis will take place over central NC, with strengthening low-level shear values ahead of the associated cold front. Present indications are that a few strong storms may affect the near-shore waters along the NC coast, but greater moisture and surface-based instability is expected to remain offshore. Read more View the full article

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTH FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms may impact parts of the Florida Peninsula today, with a threat for isolated damaging winds and/or a tornado. A line of thunderstorms across southern Florida may continue to pose some threat for damaging wind gusts or a tornado or two through the afternoon and early evening before moving offshore. The greatest potential for isolated damaging wind gusts will likely be associated with the more progressive line segment oriented northeast to southwest. In addition, occasional low-level rotation has been observed with low-topped supercells ahead of this line. The AMX VWP shows a wind profile which should be sufficient for some tornado potential, but the lack of stronger forcing and more robust updraft development should mitigate the tornado threat. ..Bentley.. 01/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024/ ...South FL... Morning surface analysis shows a low over the western Carolinas, with a cold front extending southward across SC into north FL. Widespread showers and occasional thunderstorms are occurring ahead of the cold front over central/south FL, with several cells showing transient supercell and bowing structures southwest of Tampa Bay over the past 1-2 hours. The air mass ahead of these storms is quite moist with dewpoints in the lower 70s, but widespread clouds and precip immediately ahead of the cells is limiting destabilization. Shear profiles are strong, and therefore will maintain the SLGT risk for isolated tornadoes or damaging wind gusts over parts of south FL this afternoon. Refer to MCD #5 for further short-term details. ...NC Coast this afternoon... Model guidance continues to suggest that cyclogenesis will take place over central NC, with strengthening low-level shear values ahead of the associated cold front. Present indications are that a few strong storms may affect the near-shore waters along the NC coast, but greater moisture and surface-based instability is expected to remain offshore. Read more View the full article

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTH FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms may impact parts of the Florida Peninsula today, with a threat for isolated damaging winds and/or a tornado. A line of thunderstorms across southern Florida may continue to pose some threat for damaging wind gusts or a tornado or two through the afternoon and early evening before moving offshore. The greatest potential for isolated damaging wind gusts will likely be associated with the more progressive line segment oriented northeast to southwest. In addition, occasional low-level rotation has been observed with low-topped supercells ahead of this line. The AMX VWP shows a wind profile which should be sufficient for some tornado potential, but the lack of stronger forcing and more robust updraft development should mitigate the tornado threat. ..Bentley.. 01/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024/ ...South FL... Morning surface analysis shows a low over the western Carolinas, with a cold front extending southward across SC into north FL. Widespread showers and occasional thunderstorms are occurring ahead of the cold front over central/south FL, with several cells showing transient supercell and bowing structures southwest of Tampa Bay over the past 1-2 hours. The air mass ahead of these storms is quite moist with dewpoints in the lower 70s, but widespread clouds and precip immediately ahead of the cells is limiting destabilization. Shear profiles are strong, and therefore will maintain the SLGT risk for isolated tornadoes or damaging wind gusts over parts of south FL this afternoon. Refer to MCD #5 for further short-term details. ...NC Coast this afternoon... Model guidance continues to suggest that cyclogenesis will take place over central NC, with strengthening low-level shear values ahead of the associated cold front. Present indications are that a few strong storms may affect the near-shore waters along the NC coast, but greater moisture and surface-based instability is expected to remain offshore. Read more View the full article

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTH FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms may impact parts of the Florida Peninsula today, with a threat for isolated damaging winds and/or a tornado. A line of thunderstorms across southern Florida may continue to pose some threat for damaging wind gusts or a tornado or two through the afternoon and early evening before moving offshore. The greatest potential for isolated damaging wind gusts will likely be associated with the more progressive line segment oriented northeast to southwest. In addition, occasional low-level rotation has been observed with low-topped supercells ahead of this line. The AMX VWP shows a wind profile which should be sufficient for some tornado potential, but the lack of stronger forcing and more robust updraft development should mitigate the tornado threat. ..Bentley.. 01/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024/ ...South FL... Morning surface analysis shows a low over the western Carolinas, with a cold front extending southward across SC into north FL. Widespread showers and occasional thunderstorms are occurring ahead of the cold front over central/south FL, with several cells showing transient supercell and bowing structures southwest of Tampa Bay over the past 1-2 hours. The air mass ahead of these storms is quite moist with dewpoints in the lower 70s, but widespread clouds and precip immediately ahead of the cells is limiting destabilization. Shear profiles are strong, and therefore will maintain the SLGT risk for isolated tornadoes or damaging wind gusts over parts of south FL this afternoon. Refer to MCD #5 for further short-term details. ...NC Coast this afternoon... Model guidance continues to suggest that cyclogenesis will take place over central NC, with strengthening low-level shear values ahead of the associated cold front. Present indications are that a few strong storms may affect the near-shore waters along the NC coast, but greater moisture and surface-based instability is expected to remain offshore. Read more View the full article

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 PM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. Elevated to critical meteorological conditions remain possible in parts of southern New Mexico into the Trans-Pecos, but unreceptive fuels are not expected to support more than local concerns. ..Wendt.. 01/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... Strong mid-level flow will persist across the eastern CONUS as a shortwave trough and widespread winter precipitation develop along the Atlantic Coast. At the same time, a second trough is forecast to rapidly deepen over parts of the western US before ejecting eastward over the southern Plains. In response, a strong lee low will develop, supporting gusty winds across parts of West TX. However, cool temperatures and widespread recent precipitation should limit fire-weather concerns. ...Texas Trans Pecos... A strong lee low is forecast to develop over West TX and southern NM as the main upper trough deepens across the southern Rockies D2/Sunday. Gusty southwesterly surface winds are expected to intensify as the low continues to strengthen. Gusts may reach 20-30 mph at times across parts of the TX Trans Pecos and southern NM. Dry conditions with RH values below 20% may also allow for some meteorological critical conditions to develop through the afternoon. However, area fuels are not receptive after precipitation and colder temperatures over the preceding weeks. This suggests any fire-weather potential that does develop should remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 PM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. Elevated to critical meteorological conditions remain possible in parts of southern New Mexico into the Trans-Pecos, but unreceptive fuels are not expected to support more than local concerns. ..Wendt.. 01/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... Strong mid-level flow will persist across the eastern CONUS as a shortwave trough and widespread winter precipitation develop along the Atlantic Coast. At the same time, a second trough is forecast to rapidly deepen over parts of the western US before ejecting eastward over the southern Plains. In response, a strong lee low will develop, supporting gusty winds across parts of West TX. However, cool temperatures and widespread recent precipitation should limit fire-weather concerns. ...Texas Trans Pecos... A strong lee low is forecast to develop over West TX and southern NM as the main upper trough deepens across the southern Rockies D2/Sunday. Gusty southwesterly surface winds are expected to intensify as the low continues to strengthen. Gusts may reach 20-30 mph at times across parts of the TX Trans Pecos and southern NM. Dry conditions with RH values below 20% may also allow for some meteorological critical conditions to develop through the afternoon. However, area fuels are not receptive after precipitation and colder temperatures over the preceding weeks. This suggests any fire-weather potential that does develop should remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 PM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. Elevated to critical meteorological conditions remain possible in parts of southern New Mexico into the Trans-Pecos, but unreceptive fuels are not expected to support more than local concerns. ..Wendt.. 01/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... Strong mid-level flow will persist across the eastern CONUS as a shortwave trough and widespread winter precipitation develop along the Atlantic Coast. At the same time, a second trough is forecast to rapidly deepen over parts of the western US before ejecting eastward over the southern Plains. In response, a strong lee low will develop, supporting gusty winds across parts of West TX. However, cool temperatures and widespread recent precipitation should limit fire-weather concerns. ...Texas Trans Pecos... A strong lee low is forecast to develop over West TX and southern NM as the main upper trough deepens across the southern Rockies D2/Sunday. Gusty southwesterly surface winds are expected to intensify as the low continues to strengthen. Gusts may reach 20-30 mph at times across parts of the TX Trans Pecos and southern NM. Dry conditions with RH values below 20% may also allow for some meteorological critical conditions to develop through the afternoon. However, area fuels are not receptive after precipitation and colder temperatures over the preceding weeks. This suggests any fire-weather potential that does develop should remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across South Florida Sunday, across the Southwest Sunday afternoon/evening and across the southern Plains late Sunday night. ...Synopsis... An active surface pattern will be present across the CONUS tomorrow with a rapidly deepening surface low off the New England Coast and another deepening cyclone in the southern High Plains. A continental airmass in between these two systems will keep moisture mostly offshore and limit thunderstorm potential for areas east of the Mississippi except for far southern Florida. In this region, a few thunderstorms are possible along the surface front, but likely will not be severe due to weak lapse rates, front parallel flow, and building heights. As a surface cyclone deepens and moves into the southern High Plains Sunday afternoon/evening, a strong low-level jet will develop and begin return flow aloft. This, combined with cooling temperatures aloft ahead of the deepening wave may result in enough elevated instability for some thunderstorms between 06Z and 12Z from southern Kansas across western Oklahoma and into north Texas. Elsewhere, a few thunderstorms are possible beneath the upper-low across mostly Arizona and also across southeast Texas late in the period as isentropic ascent strengthens and moisture return off the Gulf increases. ..Bentley.. 01/06/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across South Florida Sunday, across the Southwest Sunday afternoon/evening and across the southern Plains late Sunday night. ...Synopsis... An active surface pattern will be present across the CONUS tomorrow with a rapidly deepening surface low off the New England Coast and another deepening cyclone in the southern High Plains. A continental airmass in between these two systems will keep moisture mostly offshore and limit thunderstorm potential for areas east of the Mississippi except for far southern Florida. In this region, a few thunderstorms are possible along the surface front, but likely will not be severe due to weak lapse rates, front parallel flow, and building heights. As a surface cyclone deepens and moves into the southern High Plains Sunday afternoon/evening, a strong low-level jet will develop and begin return flow aloft. This, combined with cooling temperatures aloft ahead of the deepening wave may result in enough elevated instability for some thunderstorms between 06Z and 12Z from southern Kansas across western Oklahoma and into north Texas. Elsewhere, a few thunderstorms are possible beneath the upper-low across mostly Arizona and also across southeast Texas late in the period as isentropic ascent strengthens and moisture return off the Gulf increases. ..Bentley.. 01/06/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across South Florida Sunday, across the Southwest Sunday afternoon/evening and across the southern Plains late Sunday night. ...Synopsis... An active surface pattern will be present across the CONUS tomorrow with a rapidly deepening surface low off the New England Coast and another deepening cyclone in the southern High Plains. A continental airmass in between these two systems will keep moisture mostly offshore and limit thunderstorm potential for areas east of the Mississippi except for far southern Florida. In this region, a few thunderstorms are possible along the surface front, but likely will not be severe due to weak lapse rates, front parallel flow, and building heights. As a surface cyclone deepens and moves into the southern High Plains Sunday afternoon/evening, a strong low-level jet will develop and begin return flow aloft. This, combined with cooling temperatures aloft ahead of the deepening wave may result in enough elevated instability for some thunderstorms between 06Z and 12Z from southern Kansas across western Oklahoma and into north Texas. Elsewhere, a few thunderstorms are possible beneath the upper-low across mostly Arizona and also across southeast Texas late in the period as isentropic ascent strengthens and moisture return off the Gulf increases. ..Bentley.. 01/06/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across South Florida Sunday, across the Southwest Sunday afternoon/evening and across the southern Plains late Sunday night. ...Synopsis... An active surface pattern will be present across the CONUS tomorrow with a rapidly deepening surface low off the New England Coast and another deepening cyclone in the southern High Plains. A continental airmass in between these two systems will keep moisture mostly offshore and limit thunderstorm potential for areas east of the Mississippi except for far southern Florida. In this region, a few thunderstorms are possible along the surface front, but likely will not be severe due to weak lapse rates, front parallel flow, and building heights. As a surface cyclone deepens and moves into the southern High Plains Sunday afternoon/evening, a strong low-level jet will develop and begin return flow aloft. This, combined with cooling temperatures aloft ahead of the deepening wave may result in enough elevated instability for some thunderstorms between 06Z and 12Z from southern Kansas across western Oklahoma and into north Texas. Elsewhere, a few thunderstorms are possible beneath the upper-low across mostly Arizona and also across southeast Texas late in the period as isentropic ascent strengthens and moisture return off the Gulf increases. ..Bentley.. 01/06/2024 Read more View the full article

MD 0006 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PA...EASTERN WV PANHANDLE...WESTERN/CENTRAL MD...FAR NORTHERN VA Mesoscale Discussion 0006 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1047 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Areas affected...Central/Southern PA...Eastern WV Panhandle...Western/Central MD...Far Northern VA Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 061647Z - 062145Z SUMMARY...Snowfall rates are expected to increase across the region over the next several hours. Rates around 1"/hr are likely across much of the area, with localized 2"/hr rate possible, particularly across south-central PA. DISCUSSION...Recent satellite imagery shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough over eastern TN, moving quickly northeastward. Regional radar imagery shows a large area of precipitation across the Mid-Atlantic and into southern portions of the Northeast, within the warm conveyor preceding this shortwave. Attendant low-level flow is forecast to strengthen over the next several hours as the shortwave continues northeastward. Additionally, the attendant surface low, which is currently over south-central NC, is expected to deepen over the next few hours as it moves northeastward across central NC and southeast VA. These factors will result in an area of strong low-level frontogenesis over VA, with associated lift focused into central/southern PA, the eastern WV Panhandle, western/central MD, and far northern VA. Most of this area is currently experiencing moderate snow, but snowfall rates are expected to increase over the next few hours as the evolution described above occurs. Rates around 1"/hr are likely across much of the area, with some areas experiencing 2"/hr, particularly south-central PA where banding appears most likely. Highest rates are expected to be centered around 20Z, with rates then likely diminishing over this area as the shortwave continues northeastward. ..Mosier.. 01/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX... LAT...LON 39638023 40407968 41007844 41017668 40397599 39607652 38947765 38657885 38988003 39638023 Read more View the full article

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... Across the eastern US, a shortwave trough is forecast to gradually de-amplify within strong southwesterly flow aloft as it approaches the Atlantic Coast. An accompanying surface low will move across the Mid Atlantic and offshore bringing widespread precipitation the Northeast States. To the West, a second trough will approach the Pacific Coast supporting broad onshore flow over the Pacific Northwest. Widespread precipitation is forecast to develop over the West while a cool post-frontal air mass will reside over the central US. Outside of locally breezy winds across parts of the far southern Plains, dry and windy conditions are limited, and fire-weather concerns are low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... Across the eastern US, a shortwave trough is forecast to gradually de-amplify within strong southwesterly flow aloft as it approaches the Atlantic Coast. An accompanying surface low will move across the Mid Atlantic and offshore bringing widespread precipitation the Northeast States. To the West, a second trough will approach the Pacific Coast supporting broad onshore flow over the Pacific Northwest. Widespread precipitation is forecast to develop over the West while a cool post-frontal air mass will reside over the central US. Outside of locally breezy winds across parts of the far southern Plains, dry and windy conditions are limited, and fire-weather concerns are low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article