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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN ALABAMA INTO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts and tornadoes, are possible across parts of southern Louisiana and southern Mississippi into southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle by late Monday night. ...Synopsis... As initially amplified ridging, within the prevailing split mid/upper flow over the eastern mid-latitude Pacific, is suppressed further by another vigorous short wave trough approaching the Pacific Northwest, a significant evolving downstream trough is forecast to turn east of the Rockies through this period. Models indicate that it will take on a more neutral tilt, and come in better phase with another perturbation within a belt of westerlies emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific, as it progresses across the southern Great Plains Monday night. At least modest surface cyclogenesis may already by ongoing across the Texas Panhandle vicinity by Monday morning. However, there is increasing spread evident within the latest model output concerning subsequent developments across Oklahoma into the Ozark Plateau/Mid South vicinity by early Tuesday. A secondary surface low may develop across and north-northeast of the upper Texas coastal plain late Monday afternoon and evening. It is unclear whether this will merge with the primary cyclone Monday night. But, the evolution of a broad and deep primary surface cyclone still appears likely, late Monday night through Tuesday. Low-level moisture return off a modifying boundary over the northern Gulf of Mexico may contribute to considerable cloud cover and precipitation across and inland of coastal areas. Forcing for ascent associated with the subtropical perturbation, aided by low-level warm advection, may contribute to considerable thunderstorm activity near/offshore of upper Texas into central Gulf coastal areas prior to the inland advance of an unstable warm sector boundary layer. Still, the inland advection of mid 60s+ surface dew points across mid/upper Texas into Louisiana coastal areas appears probable Monday into Monday evening, and across at least southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southwestern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle by late Monday night. Models continue to suggest that this will be sufficient to support mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg. ...Gulf Coast vicinity... The extent of the organized severe weather potential across mid/upper Texas into Louisiana coastal areas Monday afternoon and evening, and the potential for hail in elevated convection farther inland, remain at least somewhat unclear. Much may depend on sub-synoptic forcing, but with inland spread of a destabilizing warm sector, there probably will be at least a window of opportunity for scattered boundary-layer based convection, including supercells, in an environment conditionally conducive to large hail and tornadoes. The most significant severe weather potential still seems likely to await the development of the stronger dynamic forcing for ascent, and related rapid surface cyclone deepening, which may impact parts of southeastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi into southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle by late Monday night, if not earlier. Inland boundary-layer destabilization coupled with intensifying wind fields, including south to southwesterly flow of 50-70+ kt in the 850-700 mb layer, could contribute to an environment potentially supportive of strong tornadoes. This may accompany the evolution of both discrete supercells and an organizing line or cluster of storms prior to 12Z Tuesday. ..Kerr.. 01/06/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Strong mid-level flow will persist across the eastern CONUS as a shortwave trough and widespread winter precipitation develop along the Atlantic Coast. At the same time, a second trough is forecast to rapidly deepen over parts of the western US before ejecting eastward over the southern Plains. In response, a strong lee low will develop, supporting gusty winds across parts of West TX. However, cool temperatures and widespread recent precipitation should limit fire-weather concerns. ...Texas Trans Pecos... A strong lee low is forecast to develop over West TX and southern NM as the main upper trough deepens across the southern Rockies D2/Sunday. Gusty southwesterly surface winds are expected to intensify as the low continues to strengthen. Gusts may reach 20-30 mph at times across parts of the TX Trans Pecos and southern NM. Dry conditions with RH values below 20% may also allow for some meteorological critical conditions to develop through the afternoon. However, area fuels are not receptive after precipitation and colder temperatures over the preceding weeks. This suggests any fire-weather potential that does develop should remain localized. ..Lyons.. 01/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Across the eastern US, a shortwave trough is forecast to gradually de-amplify within strong southwesterly flow aloft as it approaches the Atlantic Coast. An accompanying surface low will move across the Mid Atlantic and offshore bringing widespread precipitation the Northeast States. To the West, a second trough will approach the Pacific Coast supporting broad onshore flow over the Pacific Northwest. Widespread precipitation is forecast to develop over the West while a cool post-frontal air mass will reside over the central US. Outside of locally breezy winds across parts of the far southern Plains, dry and windy conditions are limited, and fire-weather concerns are low. ..Lyons.. 01/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1101 PM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Sunday through Sunday night. ...Discussion... Within one prominent belt of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific, models indicate at least some suppression of initially amplified mid-level ridging approaching the Pacific coast. However, a couple of short wave perturbations digging to its east, through the Southwestern international border vicinity, are forecast to continue to contribute to the evolution of larger-scale mid-level troughing inland of the Pacific coast and as far east as the Great Plains by 12Z Monday. As this occurs, remnant preceding mid-level troughing to the east of the Mississippi Valley is forecast to progress across the Atlantic Seaboard during the day Sunday. A more rapid offshore acceleration appears likely Sunday night, accompanied by a modest occluded surface cyclone initially developing into areas just offshore of the northern Mid Atlantic/southern New England coast by early Sunday. As a trailing cold front advances southeast of the southern Florida Peninsula and Keys by Sunday afternoon, generally dry and/or stable conditions are likely to prevail across much of the U.S., and the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. An isolated weak thunderstorm or two might still be possible ahead of the front early Sunday near southern Florida coastal areas and in the vicinity of the Keys. Additionally, beneath the cold mid-level air overspreading the southern Great Basin through southern Rockies, scattered convection capable of producing lightning might not entirely be out of the question, mainly near the Mogollon Rim during peak afternoon heating. But, otherwise, the risk for thunderstorms appears generally negligible across much of the U.S. into Sunday night. By late Sunday night, it still appears that a low will consolidate within deepening surface troughing to the lee of the southern Rockies, generally across the Texas Panhandle vicinity. Coinciding strengthening of southerly low-level flow probably will include 50+ kt around 850 mb, as far south as the lower Rio Grande Valley/lower Texas coast vicinity. This may support a more rapid, albeit still modest, low-level moisture return from the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Coupled with strengthening forcing for ascent in the exit region of a mid-level jet nosing into the Texas South Plains vicinity, and a separate band of lower/mid tropospheric warm advection across parts of south central into southeast Texas, elevated destabilization may become sufficient to initiate scattered weak thunderstorms prior to 12Z Monday. ..Kerr.. 01/06/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1101 PM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Sunday through Sunday night. ...Discussion... Within one prominent belt of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific, models indicate at least some suppression of initially amplified mid-level ridging approaching the Pacific coast. However, a couple of short wave perturbations digging to its east, through the Southwestern international border vicinity, are forecast to continue to contribute to the evolution of larger-scale mid-level troughing inland of the Pacific coast and as far east as the Great Plains by 12Z Monday. As this occurs, remnant preceding mid-level troughing to the east of the Mississippi Valley is forecast to progress across the Atlantic Seaboard during the day Sunday. A more rapid offshore acceleration appears likely Sunday night, accompanied by a modest occluded surface cyclone initially developing into areas just offshore of the northern Mid Atlantic/southern New England coast by early Sunday. As a trailing cold front advances southeast of the southern Florida Peninsula and Keys by Sunday afternoon, generally dry and/or stable conditions are likely to prevail across much of the U.S., and the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. An isolated weak thunderstorm or two might still be possible ahead of the front early Sunday near southern Florida coastal areas and in the vicinity of the Keys. Additionally, beneath the cold mid-level air overspreading the southern Great Basin through southern Rockies, scattered convection capable of producing lightning might not entirely be out of the question, mainly near the Mogollon Rim during peak afternoon heating. But, otherwise, the risk for thunderstorms appears generally negligible across much of the U.S. into Sunday night. By late Sunday night, it still appears that a low will consolidate within deepening surface troughing to the lee of the southern Rockies, generally across the Texas Panhandle vicinity. Coinciding strengthening of southerly low-level flow probably will include 50+ kt around 850 mb, as far south as the lower Rio Grande Valley/lower Texas coast vicinity. This may support a more rapid, albeit still modest, low-level moisture return from the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Coupled with strengthening forcing for ascent in the exit region of a mid-level jet nosing into the Texas South Plains vicinity, and a separate band of lower/mid tropospheric warm advection across parts of south central into southeast Texas, elevated destabilization may become sufficient to initiate scattered weak thunderstorms prior to 12Z Monday. ..Kerr.. 01/06/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 PM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the Florida Peninsula today, with a threat for isolated damaging winds. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will lose amplitude as it moves quickly from the southern Appalachians to the Mid Atlantic during the day, providing lift via cooling aloft and low-level warm advection. South of there, wind will veer as the wave exits to the northeast. Winds around 850 mb will be strong ahead of the low, with speeds over 60 kt out of the south across NC. At the surface, low pressure is forecast to deepen as it moves in tandem with the upper wave, with a cold front extending southwestward into the eastern Gulf of Mexico and toward the western FL Peninsula. Gradual warming will occur across the coastal Carolinas with a warm front, though this may be counteracted by precipitation. Farther south, mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will over spread much of FL, but instability will be weak. ...FL... Storms are likely to be ongoing along the cold front, extending from northern FL into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The strongest storms are forecast to remain over the water, as poor low-level lapse rates and thus weaker instability will exist over land. The greatest chance of isolated strong gusts or a perhaps a brief tornado appears to be with storms moving ashore during the day, as the regime translates southward along the coast. Shear will be strongest through midday, prior to the veering wind regime in the wake of the upper trough. ...Coastal Carolinas... Shear will remain strong over the region even as the upper wave loses amplitude. As the surface low travels from SC into eastern VA during the day, modest low-level moisture advection will occur, with low 60s F dewpoints common ahead of the low. Widespread clouds and precipitation will preclude diabatic heating, limiting instability. Forecast sounding show very strong shear with large, looping hodographs, conditionally favorable for supercells. However, SBCAPE is likely to remain over the Atlantic Ocean, with little inland progress except perhaps along the coast and Outer Banks. Still, strong flow just off the surface cold aid wind gust potential with any stronger convection. At this time, the threat appears too low to introduce severe probabilities. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 01/06/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 PM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the Florida Peninsula today, with a threat for isolated damaging winds. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will lose amplitude as it moves quickly from the southern Appalachians to the Mid Atlantic during the day, providing lift via cooling aloft and low-level warm advection. South of there, wind will veer as the wave exits to the northeast. Winds around 850 mb will be strong ahead of the low, with speeds over 60 kt out of the south across NC. At the surface, low pressure is forecast to deepen as it moves in tandem with the upper wave, with a cold front extending southwestward into the eastern Gulf of Mexico and toward the western FL Peninsula. Gradual warming will occur across the coastal Carolinas with a warm front, though this may be counteracted by precipitation. Farther south, mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will over spread much of FL, but instability will be weak. ...FL... Storms are likely to be ongoing along the cold front, extending from northern FL into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The strongest storms are forecast to remain over the water, as poor low-level lapse rates and thus weaker instability will exist over land. The greatest chance of isolated strong gusts or a perhaps a brief tornado appears to be with storms moving ashore during the day, as the regime translates southward along the coast. Shear will be strongest through midday, prior to the veering wind regime in the wake of the upper trough. ...Coastal Carolinas... Shear will remain strong over the region even as the upper wave loses amplitude. As the surface low travels from SC into eastern VA during the day, modest low-level moisture advection will occur, with low 60s F dewpoints common ahead of the low. Widespread clouds and precipitation will preclude diabatic heating, limiting instability. Forecast sounding show very strong shear with large, looping hodographs, conditionally favorable for supercells. However, SBCAPE is likely to remain over the Atlantic Ocean, with little inland progress except perhaps along the coast and Outer Banks. Still, strong flow just off the surface cold aid wind gust potential with any stronger convection. At this time, the threat appears too low to introduce severe probabilities. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 01/06/2024 Read more View the full article

Winter Weather Advisory issued January 05 at 9:55PM EST until January 06 at 8:00AM EST by NWSView the full article

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0641 PM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur across the coastal Florida Panhandle later tonight. ...Discussion... Surface analysis shows a stable boundary layer over the Gulf Coast, with only 50s F dewpoints over much of the area. The exception is over far southeast LA, where lower 60s F dewpoints remain. The air mass here, as well as farther northeast into coastal MS/AL/western FL Panhandle, will experience widespread precipitation this evening and overnight due to warm advection just above the boundary layer. This will continue to be the primary mitigating factor for severe potential. Late tonight, mid 60s F dewpoints are forecast to move ashore across the FL Panhandle, as strong southwest flow ahead of the upper trough persist. Precise instability measures are difficult given expected antecedent rainfall, but 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE may eventually materialize. Forecast soundings indicate most of this CAPE will be ineffective due to the cool boundary layer. However, uncapped SBCAPE may develop along the immediate coast, which could conditionally support isolated severe gusts or even a brief tornado. As such, low severe probabilities have been maintained over the area. ..Jewell.. 01/06/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0641 PM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur across the coastal Florida Panhandle later tonight. ...Discussion... Surface analysis shows a stable boundary layer over the Gulf Coast, with only 50s F dewpoints over much of the area. The exception is over far southeast LA, where lower 60s F dewpoints remain. The air mass here, as well as farther northeast into coastal MS/AL/western FL Panhandle, will experience widespread precipitation this evening and overnight due to warm advection just above the boundary layer. This will continue to be the primary mitigating factor for severe potential. Late tonight, mid 60s F dewpoints are forecast to move ashore across the FL Panhandle, as strong southwest flow ahead of the upper trough persist. Precise instability measures are difficult given expected antecedent rainfall, but 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE may eventually materialize. Forecast soundings indicate most of this CAPE will be ineffective due to the cool boundary layer. However, uncapped SBCAPE may develop along the immediate coast, which could conditionally support isolated severe gusts or even a brief tornado. As such, low severe probabilities have been maintained over the area. ..Jewell.. 01/06/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A progressive upper-level pattern is expected to continue through the end of next week and possibly into next weekend. Shortwave troughs are expected to move from the Southwest into the southern Plains and eventually the East both around Monday and again around next Friday as currently forecast. This overall pattern will favor cool/cold conditions over a broad swath of the CONUS. Furthermore, precipitation can be expected as strong surface cyclones develop along with their parent troughs. Guidance does show agreement that a minimum in precipitation is probable in parts of the Trans-Pecos extending into the Edwards Plateau and parts of the Rio Grande Valley. The driest and windiest conditions appear most likely to occur this coming Sunday as well as next Thursday, with lesser conditions possible on intervening days. Current fuel status would suggest low potential for critical fire weather in these areas. Additionally, there is the uncertainty of where and how much precipitation will occur. These areas will continue to be monitored as winds could be strong, but highlights will continue to be withheld at this time. ..Wendt.. 01/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A progressive upper-level pattern is expected to continue through the end of next week and possibly into next weekend. Shortwave troughs are expected to move from the Southwest into the southern Plains and eventually the East both around Monday and again around next Friday as currently forecast. This overall pattern will favor cool/cold conditions over a broad swath of the CONUS. Furthermore, precipitation can be expected as strong surface cyclones develop along with their parent troughs. Guidance does show agreement that a minimum in precipitation is probable in parts of the Trans-Pecos extending into the Edwards Plateau and parts of the Rio Grande Valley. The driest and windiest conditions appear most likely to occur this coming Sunday as well as next Thursday, with lesser conditions possible on intervening days. Current fuel status would suggest low potential for critical fire weather in these areas. Additionally, there is the uncertainty of where and how much precipitation will occur. These areas will continue to be monitored as winds could be strong, but highlights will continue to be withheld at this time. ..Wendt.. 01/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG PARTS OF THE LA/MS/AL/FL GULF COASTS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur along the Gulf Coast this afternoon through tonight, including coastal areas of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. ...20Z Update... The Marginal Risk and general thunderstorm areas have been trimmed from the west across parts of the TX and LA Gulf Coasts, to reflect the eastward advance of extensive convection extending from the northwest Gulf of Mexico into southern LA. Otherwise, no changes have been made. Substantial organized convection is expected to remain mostly over the Gulf of Mexico through tonight, with only very weak surface-based instability expected inland. However, some threat for a tornado or two and/or locally damaging wind could spread inland as stronger storms over the Gulf approach the coast. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Dean.. 01/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024/ ...Gulf Coast Region... Morning water vapory imagery shows a strong upper trough progressing eastward across TX/OK, with a 70-80 knot mid-level jet extending across south TX into the western Gulf of Mexico. A surface low associated with this upper trough and jet is positioned just south of the Upper Texas coast, where a line of strong storms extends from the coast southward into the Gulf. Low-level trajectories have been slow to back to southerly, resulting in a limited northward transport of rich moisture/instability. Onshore thunderstorm activity is in an environment of surface dewpoints only in the 50s, and should remain elevated in nature through much of the afternoon. Visible satellite imagery shows multiple small cellular convective elements well offshore, tracking northeastward. With continued daytime heating, a few of these cells may organized/intensify and drift toward southern LA late this afternoon and evening. Shear profiles would pose a risk of supercells, but it remains unclear how far inland the risk of surface-based convection will spread. Any storms in this regime that are surface-based would represent a risk of gusty/damaging wind gusts or a tornado. A similar threat will persist overnight as the convective cluster moves eastward along the MS/AL/FL coast. Read more View the full article

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG PARTS OF THE LA/MS/AL/FL GULF COASTS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur along the Gulf Coast this afternoon through tonight, including coastal areas of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. ...20Z Update... The Marginal Risk and general thunderstorm areas have been trimmed from the west across parts of the TX and LA Gulf Coasts, to reflect the eastward advance of extensive convection extending from the northwest Gulf of Mexico into southern LA. Otherwise, no changes have been made. Substantial organized convection is expected to remain mostly over the Gulf of Mexico through tonight, with only very weak surface-based instability expected inland. However, some threat for a tornado or two and/or locally damaging wind could spread inland as stronger storms over the Gulf approach the coast. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Dean.. 01/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024/ ...Gulf Coast Region... Morning water vapory imagery shows a strong upper trough progressing eastward across TX/OK, with a 70-80 knot mid-level jet extending across south TX into the western Gulf of Mexico. A surface low associated with this upper trough and jet is positioned just south of the Upper Texas coast, where a line of strong storms extends from the coast southward into the Gulf. Low-level trajectories have been slow to back to southerly, resulting in a limited northward transport of rich moisture/instability. Onshore thunderstorm activity is in an environment of surface dewpoints only in the 50s, and should remain elevated in nature through much of the afternoon. Visible satellite imagery shows multiple small cellular convective elements well offshore, tracking northeastward. With continued daytime heating, a few of these cells may organized/intensify and drift toward southern LA late this afternoon and evening. Shear profiles would pose a risk of supercells, but it remains unclear how far inland the risk of surface-based convection will spread. Any storms in this regime that are surface-based would represent a risk of gusty/damaging wind gusts or a tornado. A similar threat will persist overnight as the convective cluster moves eastward along the MS/AL/FL coast. Read more View the full article

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG PARTS OF THE LA/MS/AL/FL GULF COASTS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur along the Gulf Coast this afternoon through tonight, including coastal areas of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. ...20Z Update... The Marginal Risk and general thunderstorm areas have been trimmed from the west across parts of the TX and LA Gulf Coasts, to reflect the eastward advance of extensive convection extending from the northwest Gulf of Mexico into southern LA. Otherwise, no changes have been made. Substantial organized convection is expected to remain mostly over the Gulf of Mexico through tonight, with only very weak surface-based instability expected inland. However, some threat for a tornado or two and/or locally damaging wind could spread inland as stronger storms over the Gulf approach the coast. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Dean.. 01/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024/ ...Gulf Coast Region... Morning water vapory imagery shows a strong upper trough progressing eastward across TX/OK, with a 70-80 knot mid-level jet extending across south TX into the western Gulf of Mexico. A surface low associated with this upper trough and jet is positioned just south of the Upper Texas coast, where a line of strong storms extends from the coast southward into the Gulf. Low-level trajectories have been slow to back to southerly, resulting in a limited northward transport of rich moisture/instability. Onshore thunderstorm activity is in an environment of surface dewpoints only in the 50s, and should remain elevated in nature through much of the afternoon. Visible satellite imagery shows multiple small cellular convective elements well offshore, tracking northeastward. With continued daytime heating, a few of these cells may organized/intensify and drift toward southern LA late this afternoon and evening. Shear profiles would pose a risk of supercells, but it remains unclear how far inland the risk of surface-based convection will spread. Any storms in this regime that are surface-based would represent a risk of gusty/damaging wind gusts or a tornado. A similar threat will persist overnight as the convective cluster moves eastward along the MS/AL/FL coast. Read more View the full article

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG PARTS OF THE LA/MS/AL/FL GULF COASTS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur along the Gulf Coast this afternoon through tonight, including coastal areas of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. ...20Z Update... The Marginal Risk and general thunderstorm areas have been trimmed from the west across parts of the TX and LA Gulf Coasts, to reflect the eastward advance of extensive convection extending from the northwest Gulf of Mexico into southern LA. Otherwise, no changes have been made. Substantial organized convection is expected to remain mostly over the Gulf of Mexico through tonight, with only very weak surface-based instability expected inland. However, some threat for a tornado or two and/or locally damaging wind could spread inland as stronger storms over the Gulf approach the coast. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Dean.. 01/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024/ ...Gulf Coast Region... Morning water vapory imagery shows a strong upper trough progressing eastward across TX/OK, with a 70-80 knot mid-level jet extending across south TX into the western Gulf of Mexico. A surface low associated with this upper trough and jet is positioned just south of the Upper Texas coast, where a line of strong storms extends from the coast southward into the Gulf. Low-level trajectories have been slow to back to southerly, resulting in a limited northward transport of rich moisture/instability. Onshore thunderstorm activity is in an environment of surface dewpoints only in the 50s, and should remain elevated in nature through much of the afternoon. Visible satellite imagery shows multiple small cellular convective elements well offshore, tracking northeastward. With continued daytime heating, a few of these cells may organized/intensify and drift toward southern LA late this afternoon and evening. Shear profiles would pose a risk of supercells, but it remains unclear how far inland the risk of surface-based convection will spread. Any storms in this regime that are surface-based would represent a risk of gusty/damaging wind gusts or a tornado. A similar threat will persist overnight as the convective cluster moves eastward along the MS/AL/FL coast. Read more View the full article

Winter Weather Advisory issued January 05 at 2:26PM EST until January 06 at 8:00AM EST by NWSView the full article

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Jan 5 18:46:02 UTC 2024.View the full article

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 PM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... Active mid-level flow will continue over the CONUS into D2/Saturday as the eastern US shortwave trough continues to approaches the Atlantic Coast. The accompanying surface low is forecast to intensify through the forecast period, bringing widespread precipitation the Mid Atlantic and Northeast States. At the same time, a second trough will approach the Pacific coast as mid-level flow intensifies over the southern third of the CONUS. Widespread precipitation is forecast to develop over the West while a cool air mass resides over the central US. Outside of locally breezy winds across parts of the far southern Plains, dry and windy conditions are not expected to overlap with areas of dry fuels. Fire-weather concerns are low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 PM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... Active mid-level flow will continue over the CONUS into D2/Saturday as the eastern US shortwave trough continues to approaches the Atlantic Coast. The accompanying surface low is forecast to intensify through the forecast period, bringing widespread precipitation the Mid Atlantic and Northeast States. At the same time, a second trough will approach the Pacific coast as mid-level flow intensifies over the southern third of the CONUS. Widespread precipitation is forecast to develop over the West while a cool air mass resides over the central US. Outside of locally breezy winds across parts of the far southern Plains, dry and windy conditions are not expected to overlap with areas of dry fuels. Fire-weather concerns are low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the Florida Peninsula Saturday, with a threat for isolated damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move quickly northeastward from parts of the Southeast/TN Valley toward the Mid Atlantic by mid/late afternoon, and off of the southern New England coast by early Sunday morning. An attendant surface low will move from south GA toward the VA Tidewater by Saturday evening, as a trailing cold front moves through parts of the Carolinas/GA into the FL Peninsula. ...Florida... In conjunction with the ejecting shortwave trough, rather widespread and organized convection is expected over the Gulf of Mexico late Friday night into the beginning of the D2 forecast period Saturday morning, within a moderately unstable and favorably sheared environment. This convection will begin to affect portions of the FL Gulf Coast during the morning, though some weakening trend is expected as storms encounter a less unstable environment over the peninsula. While there will be some potential for pre-convective heating and moistening across south and east FL during the day, storms may struggle to maintain intensity across the peninsula due to weak midlevel lapse rates and the tendency for stronger large-scale ascent to depart the region in association with the ejecting shortwave trough. Favorable low-level and deep-layer shear will support the threat of a tornado or two and locally damaging gusts with any organized storm structures that can be sustained over coastal regions into the peninsula. With favorable wind profiles expected, but also concerns regarding instability and storm maintenance over the peninsula, a broad Marginal Risk has been maintained over much of the FL Peninsula. ...Eastern Carolinas... With the surface low expected to track northeastward toward the Tidewater vicinity, the effective warm sector will likely advance into eastern portions of the Carolinas. However, with antecedent cool/dry conditions over the region, increasing boundary-layer moisture will be accompanied by substantial cloudiness and limited potential for destabilization. At this time, potential for robust surface-based convection appears too limited for severe probabilities across the eastern Carolinas, but this potential will continue to be monitored. ..Dean.. 01/05/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the Florida Peninsula Saturday, with a threat for isolated damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move quickly northeastward from parts of the Southeast/TN Valley toward the Mid Atlantic by mid/late afternoon, and off of the southern New England coast by early Sunday morning. An attendant surface low will move from south GA toward the VA Tidewater by Saturday evening, as a trailing cold front moves through parts of the Carolinas/GA into the FL Peninsula. ...Florida... In conjunction with the ejecting shortwave trough, rather widespread and organized convection is expected over the Gulf of Mexico late Friday night into the beginning of the D2 forecast period Saturday morning, within a moderately unstable and favorably sheared environment. This convection will begin to affect portions of the FL Gulf Coast during the morning, though some weakening trend is expected as storms encounter a less unstable environment over the peninsula. While there will be some potential for pre-convective heating and moistening across south and east FL during the day, storms may struggle to maintain intensity across the peninsula due to weak midlevel lapse rates and the tendency for stronger large-scale ascent to depart the region in association with the ejecting shortwave trough. Favorable low-level and deep-layer shear will support the threat of a tornado or two and locally damaging gusts with any organized storm structures that can be sustained over coastal regions into the peninsula. With favorable wind profiles expected, but also concerns regarding instability and storm maintenance over the peninsula, a broad Marginal Risk has been maintained over much of the FL Peninsula. ...Eastern Carolinas... With the surface low expected to track northeastward toward the Tidewater vicinity, the effective warm sector will likely advance into eastern portions of the Carolinas. However, with antecedent cool/dry conditions over the region, increasing boundary-layer moisture will be accompanied by substantial cloudiness and limited potential for destabilization. At this time, potential for robust surface-based convection appears too limited for severe probabilities across the eastern Carolinas, but this potential will continue to be monitored. ..Dean.. 01/05/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the Florida Peninsula Saturday, with a threat for isolated damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move quickly northeastward from parts of the Southeast/TN Valley toward the Mid Atlantic by mid/late afternoon, and off of the southern New England coast by early Sunday morning. An attendant surface low will move from south GA toward the VA Tidewater by Saturday evening, as a trailing cold front moves through parts of the Carolinas/GA into the FL Peninsula. ...Florida... In conjunction with the ejecting shortwave trough, rather widespread and organized convection is expected over the Gulf of Mexico late Friday night into the beginning of the D2 forecast period Saturday morning, within a moderately unstable and favorably sheared environment. This convection will begin to affect portions of the FL Gulf Coast during the morning, though some weakening trend is expected as storms encounter a less unstable environment over the peninsula. While there will be some potential for pre-convective heating and moistening across south and east FL during the day, storms may struggle to maintain intensity across the peninsula due to weak midlevel lapse rates and the tendency for stronger large-scale ascent to depart the region in association with the ejecting shortwave trough. Favorable low-level and deep-layer shear will support the threat of a tornado or two and locally damaging gusts with any organized storm structures that can be sustained over coastal regions into the peninsula. With favorable wind profiles expected, but also concerns regarding instability and storm maintenance over the peninsula, a broad Marginal Risk has been maintained over much of the FL Peninsula. ...Eastern Carolinas... With the surface low expected to track northeastward toward the Tidewater vicinity, the effective warm sector will likely advance into eastern portions of the Carolinas. However, with antecedent cool/dry conditions over the region, increasing boundary-layer moisture will be accompanied by substantial cloudiness and limited potential for destabilization. At this time, potential for robust surface-based convection appears too limited for severe probabilities across the eastern Carolinas, but this potential will continue to be monitored. ..Dean.. 01/05/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the Florida Peninsula Saturday, with a threat for isolated damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move quickly northeastward from parts of the Southeast/TN Valley toward the Mid Atlantic by mid/late afternoon, and off of the southern New England coast by early Sunday morning. An attendant surface low will move from south GA toward the VA Tidewater by Saturday evening, as a trailing cold front moves through parts of the Carolinas/GA into the FL Peninsula. ...Florida... In conjunction with the ejecting shortwave trough, rather widespread and organized convection is expected over the Gulf of Mexico late Friday night into the beginning of the D2 forecast period Saturday morning, within a moderately unstable and favorably sheared environment. This convection will begin to affect portions of the FL Gulf Coast during the morning, though some weakening trend is expected as storms encounter a less unstable environment over the peninsula. While there will be some potential for pre-convective heating and moistening across south and east FL during the day, storms may struggle to maintain intensity across the peninsula due to weak midlevel lapse rates and the tendency for stronger large-scale ascent to depart the region in association with the ejecting shortwave trough. Favorable low-level and deep-layer shear will support the threat of a tornado or two and locally damaging gusts with any organized storm structures that can be sustained over coastal regions into the peninsula. With favorable wind profiles expected, but also concerns regarding instability and storm maintenance over the peninsula, a broad Marginal Risk has been maintained over much of the FL Peninsula. ...Eastern Carolinas... With the surface low expected to track northeastward toward the Tidewater vicinity, the effective warm sector will likely advance into eastern portions of the Carolinas. However, with antecedent cool/dry conditions over the region, increasing boundary-layer moisture will be accompanied by substantial cloudiness and limited potential for destabilization. At this time, potential for robust surface-based convection appears too limited for severe probabilities across the eastern Carolinas, but this potential will continue to be monitored. ..Dean.. 01/05/2024 Read more View the full article

Winter Weather Advisory issued January 05 at 12:24PM EST until January 06 at 8:00AM EST by NWSView the full article