NorthGeorgiaWX

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of gusty/damaging winds are possible late tonight over portions of western north Texas and southwest Oklahoma. ...TX/OK... A vigorous shortwave trough currently over southern NV will amplify/deepen tonight as it digs into the southern Rockies. Meanwhile, an intense southerly low-level jet will develop ahead of the system over TX, resulting in enhanced low-level warm advection and lift - along with weak destabilization. The result will likely be the development of a line of fast-moving showers and thunderstorms after midnight over parts of west TX and southwest OK. Forecast soundings show very weak thermodynamics, suggesting the updraft strength will be modest. However, given the strong low and upper level support, a narrow-line of forced convection may become capable of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts (mainly 09-12z). ..Hart/Bentley.. 01/07/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of gusty/damaging winds are possible late tonight over portions of western north Texas and southwest Oklahoma. ...TX/OK... A vigorous shortwave trough currently over southern NV will amplify/deepen tonight as it digs into the southern Rockies. Meanwhile, an intense southerly low-level jet will develop ahead of the system over TX, resulting in enhanced low-level warm advection and lift - along with weak destabilization. The result will likely be the development of a line of fast-moving showers and thunderstorms after midnight over parts of west TX and southwest OK. Forecast soundings show very weak thermodynamics, suggesting the updraft strength will be modest. However, given the strong low and upper level support, a narrow-line of forced convection may become capable of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts (mainly 09-12z). ..Hart/Bentley.. 01/07/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of gusty/damaging winds are possible late tonight over portions of western north Texas and southwest Oklahoma. ...TX/OK... A vigorous shortwave trough currently over southern NV will amplify/deepen tonight as it digs into the southern Rockies. Meanwhile, an intense southerly low-level jet will develop ahead of the system over TX, resulting in enhanced low-level warm advection and lift - along with weak destabilization. The result will likely be the development of a line of fast-moving showers and thunderstorms after midnight over parts of west TX and southwest OK. Forecast soundings show very weak thermodynamics, suggesting the updraft strength will be modest. However, given the strong low and upper level support, a narrow-line of forced convection may become capable of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts (mainly 09-12z). ..Hart/Bentley.. 01/07/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Discussion... An increasingly amplified large-scale pattern will evolve over the CONUS through tonight, highlighted by the quick exit of a minoring shortwave trough off the coast of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast today, while a trough prominently amplifies over the Great Basin and central/southern Rockies. A few thunderstorms will be possible today across far south Florida until around midday prior the cold front reaching the Florida Straits. A few thunderstorms may also occur later today across parts of Arizona and the Four Corners area as lapse rates steepen and forcing for ascent increases in relation to the amplifying upper trough. Severe thunderstorms are not expected in either case. Late tonight, the potential for elevated thunderstorms will increase across the Plains, initially from northwest Texas into Kansas as cooling aloft occurs and forcing for ascent increases in conjunction with modest elevated moisture transport. Given the degree of late-period mass response, some of the convection may linearly organize late tonight/early Monday across the Texas Big Country into southwest Oklahoma in the presence of very strong deep-layer southwesterly winds. However, the cold/initially dry boundary layer should preclude stronger/convectively enhanced wind gusts developing in the surface layer. ..Guyer/Smith.. 01/07/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Discussion... An increasingly amplified large-scale pattern will evolve over the CONUS through tonight, highlighted by the quick exit of a minoring shortwave trough off the coast of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast today, while a trough prominently amplifies over the Great Basin and central/southern Rockies. A few thunderstorms will be possible today across far south Florida until around midday prior the cold front reaching the Florida Straits. A few thunderstorms may also occur later today across parts of Arizona and the Four Corners area as lapse rates steepen and forcing for ascent increases in relation to the amplifying upper trough. Severe thunderstorms are not expected in either case. Late tonight, the potential for elevated thunderstorms will increase across the Plains, initially from northwest Texas into Kansas as cooling aloft occurs and forcing for ascent increases in conjunction with modest elevated moisture transport. Given the degree of late-period mass response, some of the convection may linearly organize late tonight/early Monday across the Texas Big Country into southwest Oklahoma in the presence of very strong deep-layer southwesterly winds. However, the cold/initially dry boundary layer should preclude stronger/convectively enhanced wind gusts developing in the surface layer. ..Guyer/Smith.. 01/07/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Discussion... An increasingly amplified large-scale pattern will evolve over the CONUS through tonight, highlighted by the quick exit of a minoring shortwave trough off the coast of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast today, while a trough prominently amplifies over the Great Basin and central/southern Rockies. A few thunderstorms will be possible today across far south Florida until around midday prior the cold front reaching the Florida Straits. A few thunderstorms may also occur later today across parts of Arizona and the Four Corners area as lapse rates steepen and forcing for ascent increases in relation to the amplifying upper trough. Severe thunderstorms are not expected in either case. Late tonight, the potential for elevated thunderstorms will increase across the Plains, initially from northwest Texas into Kansas as cooling aloft occurs and forcing for ascent increases in conjunction with modest elevated moisture transport. Given the degree of late-period mass response, some of the convection may linearly organize late tonight/early Monday across the Texas Big Country into southwest Oklahoma in the presence of very strong deep-layer southwesterly winds. However, the cold/initially dry boundary layer should preclude stronger/convectively enhanced wind gusts developing in the surface layer. ..Guyer/Smith.. 01/07/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Discussion... An increasingly amplified large-scale pattern will evolve over the CONUS through tonight, highlighted by the quick exit of a minoring shortwave trough off the coast of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast today, while a trough prominently amplifies over the Great Basin and central/southern Rockies. A few thunderstorms will be possible today across far south Florida until around midday prior the cold front reaching the Florida Straits. A few thunderstorms may also occur later today across parts of Arizona and the Four Corners area as lapse rates steepen and forcing for ascent increases in relation to the amplifying upper trough. Severe thunderstorms are not expected in either case. Late tonight, the potential for elevated thunderstorms will increase across the Plains, initially from northwest Texas into Kansas as cooling aloft occurs and forcing for ascent increases in conjunction with modest elevated moisture transport. Given the degree of late-period mass response, some of the convection may linearly organize late tonight/early Monday across the Texas Big Country into southwest Oklahoma in the presence of very strong deep-layer southwesterly winds. However, the cold/initially dry boundary layer should preclude stronger/convectively enhanced wind gusts developing in the surface layer. ..Guyer/Smith.. 01/07/2024 Read more View the full article

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... In the wake of a significant surface cyclone likely to migrate northeast of the lower Great Lakes region by mid week, medium-range models indicate that renewed amplification of mid-level ridging within the split flow across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific will be followed by at least a couple of vigorous short waves digging across the Pacific Northwest. One of these, emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific, may dig toward or across the Southwestern international border area during the middle to latter portion of the week, before accelerating northeastward across the lower Mississippi Valley through the Northeast by next weekend. There is sizable spread evident within the model output concerning this evolution, and associated surface cyclogenesis which might tend to take a track south and east of the preceding cyclone. It appears at least possible that this could contribute to a destabilizing environment potentially supportive of a risk for organized severe storms across parts of southern/southeastern Texas through portions of the Gulf and south Atlantic Coast region. While the extent of this threat remains unclear, it currently seems probable that it will remain less than with the early week system. Read more View the full article

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... In the wake of a significant surface cyclone likely to migrate northeast of the lower Great Lakes region by mid week, medium-range models indicate that renewed amplification of mid-level ridging within the split flow across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific will be followed by at least a couple of vigorous short waves digging across the Pacific Northwest. One of these, emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific, may dig toward or across the Southwestern international border area during the middle to latter portion of the week, before accelerating northeastward across the lower Mississippi Valley through the Northeast by next weekend. There is sizable spread evident within the model output concerning this evolution, and associated surface cyclogenesis which might tend to take a track south and east of the preceding cyclone. It appears at least possible that this could contribute to a destabilizing environment potentially supportive of a risk for organized severe storms across parts of southern/southeastern Texas through portions of the Gulf and south Atlantic Coast region. While the extent of this threat remains unclear, it currently seems probable that it will remain less than with the early week system. Read more View the full article

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... In the wake of a significant surface cyclone likely to migrate northeast of the lower Great Lakes region by mid week, medium-range models indicate that renewed amplification of mid-level ridging within the split flow across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific will be followed by at least a couple of vigorous short waves digging across the Pacific Northwest. One of these, emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific, may dig toward or across the Southwestern international border area during the middle to latter portion of the week, before accelerating northeastward across the lower Mississippi Valley through the Northeast by next weekend. There is sizable spread evident within the model output concerning this evolution, and associated surface cyclogenesis which might tend to take a track south and east of the preceding cyclone. It appears at least possible that this could contribute to a destabilizing environment potentially supportive of a risk for organized severe storms across parts of southern/southeastern Texas through portions of the Gulf and south Atlantic Coast region. While the extent of this threat remains unclear, it currently seems probable that it will remain less than with the early week system. Read more View the full article

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... In the wake of a significant surface cyclone likely to migrate northeast of the lower Great Lakes region by mid week, medium-range models indicate that renewed amplification of mid-level ridging within the split flow across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific will be followed by at least a couple of vigorous short waves digging across the Pacific Northwest. One of these, emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific, may dig toward or across the Southwestern international border area during the middle to latter portion of the week, before accelerating northeastward across the lower Mississippi Valley through the Northeast by next weekend. There is sizable spread evident within the model output concerning this evolution, and associated surface cyclogenesis which might tend to take a track south and east of the preceding cyclone. It appears at least possible that this could contribute to a destabilizing environment potentially supportive of a risk for organized severe storms across parts of southern/southeastern Texas through portions of the Gulf and south Atlantic Coast region. While the extent of this threat remains unclear, it currently seems probable that it will remain less than with the early week system. Read more View the full article

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may impact much of the eastern Gulf and southern Atlantic Coast states Tuesday, accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts and tornadoes. ...Synopsis... Models indicate that mid/upper ridging will amplify once again within the prevailing split flow across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific. As the occurs, mid-level troughing is forecast to begin to dig across Pacific Northwest, and a strong downstream trough, initially approaching the Mississippi Valley, likely will remain progressive. Strong cyclogenesis appears likely to proceed from the Mississippi Valley through much of the eastern U.S., with the center of the primary surface cyclone still generally forecast to track from the Ozark Plateau/Mid South vicinity through the lower Great Lakes region by late Tuesday night. Models indicate that the mid/upper trough axis will take on a negative tilt while pivoting northeast of the Mississippi Valley, with strongest difluence aloft overspreading much of the Southeast. Further intensification of lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields may include 50-80+ kt southerly to southwesterly flow in the 850-700 mb layer overspreading much of the eastern Gulf/southern Atlantic Coast region during the day Tuesday, accompanied by a moistening warm sector. ...Southeast... Associated with the strong synoptic forcing for ascent, a strong to severe squall line, perhaps closely preceded by discrete supercell development, may be ongoing ahead of an eastward surging cold front across parts of central/southern Alabama into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico at 12Z Tuesday. While the forcing for ascent likely will remain sufficient to maintain this convective development across much of the eastern Gulf and southern Atlantic Coast region by Tuesday evening, the extent to which thermodynamic profiles become supportive remains unclear. While inflow off the Atlantic into the Carolinas may contribute to pre-frontal low-level moistening even if the Gulf moist inflow becomes cut off, model forecast soundings suggest that relatively warm layers aloft with weak lapse rates will generally inhibit appreciable boundary-layer destabilization. It is possible that this could contribute to weakening convective trends at some point across Georgia and Florida, before convection potentially intensifies once again across the Carolinas, before advancing offshore. This uncertainty, among others, precludes an outlook of higher severe probabilities at this time. However, given the synoptic forcing, the strength of the deep-layer wind fields, and the large clockwise-curved hodographs evident in forecast soundings, the environment seems likely to become at least conditionally supportive of convection capable of producing a few strong tornadoes and/or widespread damaging wind gusts. ..Kerr.. 01/07/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may impact much of the eastern Gulf and southern Atlantic Coast states Tuesday, accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts and tornadoes. ...Synopsis... Models indicate that mid/upper ridging will amplify once again within the prevailing split flow across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific. As the occurs, mid-level troughing is forecast to begin to dig across Pacific Northwest, and a strong downstream trough, initially approaching the Mississippi Valley, likely will remain progressive. Strong cyclogenesis appears likely to proceed from the Mississippi Valley through much of the eastern U.S., with the center of the primary surface cyclone still generally forecast to track from the Ozark Plateau/Mid South vicinity through the lower Great Lakes region by late Tuesday night. Models indicate that the mid/upper trough axis will take on a negative tilt while pivoting northeast of the Mississippi Valley, with strongest difluence aloft overspreading much of the Southeast. Further intensification of lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields may include 50-80+ kt southerly to southwesterly flow in the 850-700 mb layer overspreading much of the eastern Gulf/southern Atlantic Coast region during the day Tuesday, accompanied by a moistening warm sector. ...Southeast... Associated with the strong synoptic forcing for ascent, a strong to severe squall line, perhaps closely preceded by discrete supercell development, may be ongoing ahead of an eastward surging cold front across parts of central/southern Alabama into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico at 12Z Tuesday. While the forcing for ascent likely will remain sufficient to maintain this convective development across much of the eastern Gulf and southern Atlantic Coast region by Tuesday evening, the extent to which thermodynamic profiles become supportive remains unclear. While inflow off the Atlantic into the Carolinas may contribute to pre-frontal low-level moistening even if the Gulf moist inflow becomes cut off, model forecast soundings suggest that relatively warm layers aloft with weak lapse rates will generally inhibit appreciable boundary-layer destabilization. It is possible that this could contribute to weakening convective trends at some point across Georgia and Florida, before convection potentially intensifies once again across the Carolinas, before advancing offshore. This uncertainty, among others, precludes an outlook of higher severe probabilities at this time. However, given the synoptic forcing, the strength of the deep-layer wind fields, and the large clockwise-curved hodographs evident in forecast soundings, the environment seems likely to become at least conditionally supportive of convection capable of producing a few strong tornadoes and/or widespread damaging wind gusts. ..Kerr.. 01/07/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may impact much of the eastern Gulf and southern Atlantic Coast states Tuesday, accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts and tornadoes. ...Synopsis... Models indicate that mid/upper ridging will amplify once again within the prevailing split flow across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific. As the occurs, mid-level troughing is forecast to begin to dig across Pacific Northwest, and a strong downstream trough, initially approaching the Mississippi Valley, likely will remain progressive. Strong cyclogenesis appears likely to proceed from the Mississippi Valley through much of the eastern U.S., with the center of the primary surface cyclone still generally forecast to track from the Ozark Plateau/Mid South vicinity through the lower Great Lakes region by late Tuesday night. Models indicate that the mid/upper trough axis will take on a negative tilt while pivoting northeast of the Mississippi Valley, with strongest difluence aloft overspreading much of the Southeast. Further intensification of lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields may include 50-80+ kt southerly to southwesterly flow in the 850-700 mb layer overspreading much of the eastern Gulf/southern Atlantic Coast region during the day Tuesday, accompanied by a moistening warm sector. ...Southeast... Associated with the strong synoptic forcing for ascent, a strong to severe squall line, perhaps closely preceded by discrete supercell development, may be ongoing ahead of an eastward surging cold front across parts of central/southern Alabama into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico at 12Z Tuesday. While the forcing for ascent likely will remain sufficient to maintain this convective development across much of the eastern Gulf and southern Atlantic Coast region by Tuesday evening, the extent to which thermodynamic profiles become supportive remains unclear. While inflow off the Atlantic into the Carolinas may contribute to pre-frontal low-level moistening even if the Gulf moist inflow becomes cut off, model forecast soundings suggest that relatively warm layers aloft with weak lapse rates will generally inhibit appreciable boundary-layer destabilization. It is possible that this could contribute to weakening convective trends at some point across Georgia and Florida, before convection potentially intensifies once again across the Carolinas, before advancing offshore. This uncertainty, among others, precludes an outlook of higher severe probabilities at this time. However, given the synoptic forcing, the strength of the deep-layer wind fields, and the large clockwise-curved hodographs evident in forecast soundings, the environment seems likely to become at least conditionally supportive of convection capable of producing a few strong tornadoes and/or widespread damaging wind gusts. ..Kerr.. 01/07/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... An intense upper-level trough and surface low are forecast to amplify further as they move eastward across the south-central CONUS D2/Monday. In the wake of the low, a strong cold front will move eastward ushering in a windy, but much colder air mass. A few hours of dry and windy conditions are possible over parts of West TX. ...West TX... As the upper trough and surface low continue to intensify over the Southern Plains, low-level winds are expected to increase across the TX Trans Pecos region through much of D2/Monday. Strong pressure gradients behind the low will aid downslope gusts of 25-35 mph. Coincident with the increasing winds, a dry low-level air mass with RH values below 25% is possible. A few hours of elevated meteorological conditions may develop in the afternoon. With strong winds and areas of low humidity potentially overlapping ahead of the cooler air mass, elevated fire-weather conditions are a possibility, for a few hours, despite modest fuel availability. ..Lyons.. 01/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... An intense upper-level trough and surface low are forecast to amplify further as they move eastward across the south-central CONUS D2/Monday. In the wake of the low, a strong cold front will move eastward ushering in a windy, but much colder air mass. A few hours of dry and windy conditions are possible over parts of West TX. ...West TX... As the upper trough and surface low continue to intensify over the Southern Plains, low-level winds are expected to increase across the TX Trans Pecos region through much of D2/Monday. Strong pressure gradients behind the low will aid downslope gusts of 25-35 mph. Coincident with the increasing winds, a dry low-level air mass with RH values below 25% is possible. A few hours of elevated meteorological conditions may develop in the afternoon. With strong winds and areas of low humidity potentially overlapping ahead of the cooler air mass, elevated fire-weather conditions are a possibility, for a few hours, despite modest fuel availability. ..Lyons.. 01/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An amplified and progressive mid-level flow pattern will persist over the CONUS as a Pacific trough is forecast to rapidly deepen over parts of the western US before ejecting eastward over the southern Plains. In response, a strong lee low will develop, supporting gusty winds across parts of West TX. However, cool temperatures and widespread recent precipitation should limit fire-weather concerns. ...Texas Trans Pecos... As the upper trough and surface low move across the southern Plains, strong southerly winds and pockets of lower humidity are possible over parts of West TX and southern NM. Gusts of 25-35 mph and RH values below 20% are possible over a minima in recent precipitation. Elevated to critical meteorological conditions are possible in parts of southern New Mexico into the Trans-Pecos. However, unreceptive fuels are not expected to support widespread concerns. ..Lyons.. 01/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Jan 7 07:31:02 UTC 2024.View the full article

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 PM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts and tornadoes, are possible across parts of southern Louisiana and southern Mississippi into southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle by late Monday night. ...Synopsis... As initially amplified mid/upper ridging, within the prevailing split flow across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific, is suppressed further by another vigorous short wave trough approaching the Pacific Northwest, a significant evolving downstream trough is forecast to turn east of the Rockies through this period. Models indicate that it will take on a more neutral tilt, and come in better phase with another perturbation within a belt of westerlies emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific, as it progresses across the southern Great Plains Monday night. However, considerable spread is evident among the various model output concerning the more specific details of this evolution, and associated cyclogenesis, particularly late Monday into Monday night. It still appears that at least modest surface cyclogenesis may be ongoing across the Texas Panhandle vicinity by late Monday morning, but there may be little further deepening through the day as it migrates east-northeastward across the southern Great Plains. A secondary frontal wave may form across and northeast of the upper Texas coastal plain late Monday afternoon and evening, but more rapid deepening of the primary surface cyclone may not commence across the Ozark Plateau/Mid South vicinity until the overnight hours. Low-level moisture return off a modifying boundary layer over the northern Gulf of Mexico may contribute to considerable cloud cover and at least light precipitation across and well inland of Gulf coastal areas through the day Monday. By early Monday, stronger mid-level cooling and forcing for ascent spreading east/southeast of the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle vicinity may already be contributing to a developing line of storms, rooted above a relative deep cold/stable surface-based layer. During the day, ascent driven by low-level warm advection and, perhaps, forcing associated with the subtropical perturbation, may contribute to increasing thunderstorm development near/offshore of upper Texas into central Gulf coastal areas, prior to the inland advance of a destabilizing warm sector boundary layer. ...Gulf Coast... As the leading edge of the stronger mid-level cooling advances southeastward toward the northwestern Gulf coast/lower Mississippi Valley, it appears that it may maintain the band of convection and embedded thunderstorms, with some intensification possible as it encounters better low-level moisture and instability. At some point across east/southeast Texas into western Louisiana, it is possible that this activity could become capable of producing some hail and gusty surface winds. However, based on latest forecast soundings, this appears likely to remain largely rooted above a saturated moist adiabatic or more stable near surface layer, which may mitigate the severe weather potential. A window of opportunity may still exist for inland boundary-layer destabilization across the upper Texas coastal plain into southwestern Louisiana, where surface dew points may increase into the mid/upper 60s. Mixed-layer CAPE increasing up to 500-1000 J/kg appears possible, in the presence of lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection and strong deep-layer shear. Prior to the onset of mid-level subsidence, then a subsequent surface frontal passage, organized thunderstorm development, including supercells, may not be out of the question by late Monday afternoon. Monday afternoon into Monday night, much will probably hinge on the timing of the more rapid deepening of the primary surface cyclone, which might be needed to allow for a destabilizing Gulf boundary layer to advect inland across the northern Gulf coast. However, guidance continues to generally indicate that this may occur across at least portions of southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southwestern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle by late Monday night, if not earlier. If this occurs, it appears likely to coincide with intensifying wind fields and shear, including 50-70+ kt in the 850 mb layer, which could contribute to an environment conducive to organizing convection with a risk for damaging wind gusts and a couple of strong tornadoes. ..Kerr.. 01/07/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 PM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts and tornadoes, are possible across parts of southern Louisiana and southern Mississippi into southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle by late Monday night. ...Synopsis... As initially amplified mid/upper ridging, within the prevailing split flow across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific, is suppressed further by another vigorous short wave trough approaching the Pacific Northwest, a significant evolving downstream trough is forecast to turn east of the Rockies through this period. Models indicate that it will take on a more neutral tilt, and come in better phase with another perturbation within a belt of westerlies emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific, as it progresses across the southern Great Plains Monday night. However, considerable spread is evident among the various model output concerning the more specific details of this evolution, and associated cyclogenesis, particularly late Monday into Monday night. It still appears that at least modest surface cyclogenesis may be ongoing across the Texas Panhandle vicinity by late Monday morning, but there may be little further deepening through the day as it migrates east-northeastward across the southern Great Plains. A secondary frontal wave may form across and northeast of the upper Texas coastal plain late Monday afternoon and evening, but more rapid deepening of the primary surface cyclone may not commence across the Ozark Plateau/Mid South vicinity until the overnight hours. Low-level moisture return off a modifying boundary layer over the northern Gulf of Mexico may contribute to considerable cloud cover and at least light precipitation across and well inland of Gulf coastal areas through the day Monday. By early Monday, stronger mid-level cooling and forcing for ascent spreading east/southeast of the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle vicinity may already be contributing to a developing line of storms, rooted above a relative deep cold/stable surface-based layer. During the day, ascent driven by low-level warm advection and, perhaps, forcing associated with the subtropical perturbation, may contribute to increasing thunderstorm development near/offshore of upper Texas into central Gulf coastal areas, prior to the inland advance of a destabilizing warm sector boundary layer. ...Gulf Coast... As the leading edge of the stronger mid-level cooling advances southeastward toward the northwestern Gulf coast/lower Mississippi Valley, it appears that it may maintain the band of convection and embedded thunderstorms, with some intensification possible as it encounters better low-level moisture and instability. At some point across east/southeast Texas into western Louisiana, it is possible that this activity could become capable of producing some hail and gusty surface winds. However, based on latest forecast soundings, this appears likely to remain largely rooted above a saturated moist adiabatic or more stable near surface layer, which may mitigate the severe weather potential. A window of opportunity may still exist for inland boundary-layer destabilization across the upper Texas coastal plain into southwestern Louisiana, where surface dew points may increase into the mid/upper 60s. Mixed-layer CAPE increasing up to 500-1000 J/kg appears possible, in the presence of lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection and strong deep-layer shear. Prior to the onset of mid-level subsidence, then a subsequent surface frontal passage, organized thunderstorm development, including supercells, may not be out of the question by late Monday afternoon. Monday afternoon into Monday night, much will probably hinge on the timing of the more rapid deepening of the primary surface cyclone, which might be needed to allow for a destabilizing Gulf boundary layer to advect inland across the northern Gulf coast. However, guidance continues to generally indicate that this may occur across at least portions of southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southwestern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle by late Monday night, if not earlier. If this occurs, it appears likely to coincide with intensifying wind fields and shear, including 50-70+ kt in the 850 mb layer, which could contribute to an environment conducive to organizing convection with a risk for damaging wind gusts and a couple of strong tornadoes. ..Kerr.. 01/07/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 PM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts and tornadoes, are possible across parts of southern Louisiana and southern Mississippi into southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle by late Monday night. ...Synopsis... As initially amplified mid/upper ridging, within the prevailing split flow across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific, is suppressed further by another vigorous short wave trough approaching the Pacific Northwest, a significant evolving downstream trough is forecast to turn east of the Rockies through this period. Models indicate that it will take on a more neutral tilt, and come in better phase with another perturbation within a belt of westerlies emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific, as it progresses across the southern Great Plains Monday night. However, considerable spread is evident among the various model output concerning the more specific details of this evolution, and associated cyclogenesis, particularly late Monday into Monday night. It still appears that at least modest surface cyclogenesis may be ongoing across the Texas Panhandle vicinity by late Monday morning, but there may be little further deepening through the day as it migrates east-northeastward across the southern Great Plains. A secondary frontal wave may form across and northeast of the upper Texas coastal plain late Monday afternoon and evening, but more rapid deepening of the primary surface cyclone may not commence across the Ozark Plateau/Mid South vicinity until the overnight hours. Low-level moisture return off a modifying boundary layer over the northern Gulf of Mexico may contribute to considerable cloud cover and at least light precipitation across and well inland of Gulf coastal areas through the day Monday. By early Monday, stronger mid-level cooling and forcing for ascent spreading east/southeast of the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle vicinity may already be contributing to a developing line of storms, rooted above a relative deep cold/stable surface-based layer. During the day, ascent driven by low-level warm advection and, perhaps, forcing associated with the subtropical perturbation, may contribute to increasing thunderstorm development near/offshore of upper Texas into central Gulf coastal areas, prior to the inland advance of a destabilizing warm sector boundary layer. ...Gulf Coast... As the leading edge of the stronger mid-level cooling advances southeastward toward the northwestern Gulf coast/lower Mississippi Valley, it appears that it may maintain the band of convection and embedded thunderstorms, with some intensification possible as it encounters better low-level moisture and instability. At some point across east/southeast Texas into western Louisiana, it is possible that this activity could become capable of producing some hail and gusty surface winds. However, based on latest forecast soundings, this appears likely to remain largely rooted above a saturated moist adiabatic or more stable near surface layer, which may mitigate the severe weather potential. A window of opportunity may still exist for inland boundary-layer destabilization across the upper Texas coastal plain into southwestern Louisiana, where surface dew points may increase into the mid/upper 60s. Mixed-layer CAPE increasing up to 500-1000 J/kg appears possible, in the presence of lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection and strong deep-layer shear. Prior to the onset of mid-level subsidence, then a subsequent surface frontal passage, organized thunderstorm development, including supercells, may not be out of the question by late Monday afternoon. Monday afternoon into Monday night, much will probably hinge on the timing of the more rapid deepening of the primary surface cyclone, which might be needed to allow for a destabilizing Gulf boundary layer to advect inland across the northern Gulf coast. However, guidance continues to generally indicate that this may occur across at least portions of southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southwestern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle by late Monday night, if not earlier. If this occurs, it appears likely to coincide with intensifying wind fields and shear, including 50-70+ kt in the 850 mb layer, which could contribute to an environment conducive to organizing convection with a risk for damaging wind gusts and a couple of strong tornadoes. ..Kerr.. 01/07/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 PM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through early Monday morning. ...Discussion... A surface anticyclone over south-central TX will build east-northeast across the Deep South to the southern Appalachians through early Monday. This will aid in pushing the surface cold front across central FL southward across the remainder of the peninsula by about midday. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible later this morning prior to frontal passage. Weak tropospheric lapse rates, deep-layer flow paralleling the front, and minor mid-level height rises all suggest severe potential is negligible. On the backside of the building anticyclone, return flow from the western Gulf will strengthen through the period, as a vigorous shortwave trough amplifies over the Southwest with deepening lee cyclogenesis off the southern Rockies. Elevated thunderstorm potential will increase rapidly early Monday morning from northwest TX to KS as mid-level height falls overspread the pronounced low-level warm conveyor. Some CAM guidance suggests this elevated convection will be able to organize into a line near/just prior to 12Z from southwest OK to the TX Big Country, as a 100-kt 500-mb speed max begins to emerge through the base of the trough. The TX Big Country vicinity may see strong wind gusts accompanying the line owing to parcels rooted closer to the surface. ..Grams/Lyons.. 01/07/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 PM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through early Monday morning. ...Discussion... A surface anticyclone over south-central TX will build east-northeast across the Deep South to the southern Appalachians through early Monday. This will aid in pushing the surface cold front across central FL southward across the remainder of the peninsula by about midday. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible later this morning prior to frontal passage. Weak tropospheric lapse rates, deep-layer flow paralleling the front, and minor mid-level height rises all suggest severe potential is negligible. On the backside of the building anticyclone, return flow from the western Gulf will strengthen through the period, as a vigorous shortwave trough amplifies over the Southwest with deepening lee cyclogenesis off the southern Rockies. Elevated thunderstorm potential will increase rapidly early Monday morning from northwest TX to KS as mid-level height falls overspread the pronounced low-level warm conveyor. Some CAM guidance suggests this elevated convection will be able to organize into a line near/just prior to 12Z from southwest OK to the TX Big Country, as a 100-kt 500-mb speed max begins to emerge through the base of the trough. The TX Big Country vicinity may see strong wind gusts accompanying the line owing to parcels rooted closer to the surface. ..Grams/Lyons.. 01/07/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 PM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through early Monday morning. ...Discussion... A surface anticyclone over south-central TX will build east-northeast across the Deep South to the southern Appalachians through early Monday. This will aid in pushing the surface cold front across central FL southward across the remainder of the peninsula by about midday. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible later this morning prior to frontal passage. Weak tropospheric lapse rates, deep-layer flow paralleling the front, and minor mid-level height rises all suggest severe potential is negligible. On the backside of the building anticyclone, return flow from the western Gulf will strengthen through the period, as a vigorous shortwave trough amplifies over the Southwest with deepening lee cyclogenesis off the southern Rockies. Elevated thunderstorm potential will increase rapidly early Monday morning from northwest TX to KS as mid-level height falls overspread the pronounced low-level warm conveyor. Some CAM guidance suggests this elevated convection will be able to organize into a line near/just prior to 12Z from southwest OK to the TX Big Country, as a 100-kt 500-mb speed max begins to emerge through the base of the trough. The TX Big Country vicinity may see strong wind gusts accompanying the line owing to parcels rooted closer to the surface. ..Grams/Lyons.. 01/07/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 PM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through early Monday morning. ...Discussion... A surface anticyclone over south-central TX will build east-northeast across the Deep South to the southern Appalachians through early Monday. This will aid in pushing the surface cold front across central FL southward across the remainder of the peninsula by about midday. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible later this morning prior to frontal passage. Weak tropospheric lapse rates, deep-layer flow paralleling the front, and minor mid-level height rises all suggest severe potential is negligible. On the backside of the building anticyclone, return flow from the western Gulf will strengthen through the period, as a vigorous shortwave trough amplifies over the Southwest with deepening lee cyclogenesis off the southern Rockies. Elevated thunderstorm potential will increase rapidly early Monday morning from northwest TX to KS as mid-level height falls overspread the pronounced low-level warm conveyor. Some CAM guidance suggests this elevated convection will be able to organize into a line near/just prior to 12Z from southwest OK to the TX Big Country, as a 100-kt 500-mb speed max begins to emerge through the base of the trough. The TX Big Country vicinity may see strong wind gusts accompanying the line owing to parcels rooted closer to the surface. ..Grams/Lyons.. 01/07/2024 Read more View the full article