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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... Across the eastern US, a shortwave trough is forecast to gradually de-amplify within strong southwesterly flow aloft as it approaches the Atlantic Coast. An accompanying surface low will move across the Mid Atlantic and offshore bringing widespread precipitation the Northeast States. To the West, a second trough will approach the Pacific Coast supporting broad onshore flow over the Pacific Northwest. Widespread precipitation is forecast to develop over the West while a cool post-frontal air mass will reside over the central US. Outside of locally breezy winds across parts of the far southern Plains, dry and windy conditions are limited, and fire-weather concerns are low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1014 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON.... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms may impact parts of the Florida Peninsula today, with a threat for isolated damaging winds and/or a tornado. ...South FL... Morning surface analysis shows a low over the western Carolinas, with a cold front extending southward across SC into north FL. Widespread showers and occasional thunderstorms are occurring ahead of the cold front over central/south FL, with several cells showing transient supercell and bowing structures southwest of Tampa Bay over the past 1-2 hours. The air mass ahead of these storms is quite moist with dewpoints in the lower 70s, but widespread clouds and precip immediately ahead of the cells is limiting destabilization. Shear profiles are strong, and therefore will maintain the SLGT risk for isolated tornadoes or damaging wind gusts over parts of south FL this afternoon. Refer to MCD #5 for further short-term details. ...NC Coast this afternoon... Model guidance continues to suggest that cyclogenesis will take place over central NC, with strengthening low-level shear values ahead of the associated cold front. Present indications are that a few strong storms may affect the near-shore waters along the NC coast, but greater moisture and surface-based instability is expected to remain offshore. ..Hart/Mosier.. 01/06/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1014 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON.... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms may impact parts of the Florida Peninsula today, with a threat for isolated damaging winds and/or a tornado. ...South FL... Morning surface analysis shows a low over the western Carolinas, with a cold front extending southward across SC into north FL. Widespread showers and occasional thunderstorms are occurring ahead of the cold front over central/south FL, with several cells showing transient supercell and bowing structures southwest of Tampa Bay over the past 1-2 hours. The air mass ahead of these storms is quite moist with dewpoints in the lower 70s, but widespread clouds and precip immediately ahead of the cells is limiting destabilization. Shear profiles are strong, and therefore will maintain the SLGT risk for isolated tornadoes or damaging wind gusts over parts of south FL this afternoon. Refer to MCD #5 for further short-term details. ...NC Coast this afternoon... Model guidance continues to suggest that cyclogenesis will take place over central NC, with strengthening low-level shear values ahead of the associated cold front. Present indications are that a few strong storms may affect the near-shore waters along the NC coast, but greater moisture and surface-based instability is expected to remain offshore. ..Hart/Mosier.. 01/06/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1014 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON.... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms may impact parts of the Florida Peninsula today, with a threat for isolated damaging winds and/or a tornado. ...South FL... Morning surface analysis shows a low over the western Carolinas, with a cold front extending southward across SC into north FL. Widespread showers and occasional thunderstorms are occurring ahead of the cold front over central/south FL, with several cells showing transient supercell and bowing structures southwest of Tampa Bay over the past 1-2 hours. The air mass ahead of these storms is quite moist with dewpoints in the lower 70s, but widespread clouds and precip immediately ahead of the cells is limiting destabilization. Shear profiles are strong, and therefore will maintain the SLGT risk for isolated tornadoes or damaging wind gusts over parts of south FL this afternoon. Refer to MCD #5 for further short-term details. ...NC Coast this afternoon... Model guidance continues to suggest that cyclogenesis will take place over central NC, with strengthening low-level shear values ahead of the associated cold front. Present indications are that a few strong storms may affect the near-shore waters along the NC coast, but greater moisture and surface-based instability is expected to remain offshore. ..Hart/Mosier.. 01/06/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1014 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON.... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms may impact parts of the Florida Peninsula today, with a threat for isolated damaging winds and/or a tornado. ...South FL... Morning surface analysis shows a low over the western Carolinas, with a cold front extending southward across SC into north FL. Widespread showers and occasional thunderstorms are occurring ahead of the cold front over central/south FL, with several cells showing transient supercell and bowing structures southwest of Tampa Bay over the past 1-2 hours. The air mass ahead of these storms is quite moist with dewpoints in the lower 70s, but widespread clouds and precip immediately ahead of the cells is limiting destabilization. Shear profiles are strong, and therefore will maintain the SLGT risk for isolated tornadoes or damaging wind gusts over parts of south FL this afternoon. Refer to MCD #5 for further short-term details. ...NC Coast this afternoon... Model guidance continues to suggest that cyclogenesis will take place over central NC, with strengthening low-level shear values ahead of the associated cold front. Present indications are that a few strong storms may affect the near-shore waters along the NC coast, but greater moisture and surface-based instability is expected to remain offshore. ..Hart/Mosier.. 01/06/2024 Read more View the full article

MD 0005 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTH FL Mesoscale Discussion 0005 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0951 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Areas affected...Parts of central/south FL Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 061551Z - 061715Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Some threat for a couple tornadoes and locally damaging wind may develop from late morning into early afternoon. DISCUSSION...At 1545 UTC, organized convection is approaching parts of the central/southern FL Gulf Coast from the Gulf of Mexico. Morning observed soundings from KTBW and KMFL depicted only very weak buoyancy, and substantial cloudiness and precipitation in advance of the stronger storms will continue to limit destabilization across much of the peninsula. However, some modest heating/destabilization will be possible to the south of the more extensive precipitation, where temperatures are currently rising into the mid 70s F. Wind profiles (as noted on the TBW sounding and preconvective VWPs from KTBW) remain quite favorable for organized convection, with enlarged low-level hodographs (0-1 km SRH of 200-400 m2/s2) supporting a conditional tornado threat if any supercells and/or line-embedded mesovortices can be sustained inland later this morning into the early afternoon. Later this afternoon, low-level flow will begin to veer and weaken as the primary midlevel shortwave trough and surface low move quickly northeastward away from the region. However, there may be a period of time late this morning into the early afternoon where organized convection will pose a threat of a couple tornadoes and locally damaging wind. Watch issuance is possible depending on short-term trends regarding destabilization and storm organization. ..Dean/Hart.. 01/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW... LAT...LON 27388248 27838228 27728099 27128048 26418052 26028075 25928095 25878135 26048197 26338224 26478236 26618254 26938255 27388248 Read more View the full article

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Jan 6 15:31:02 UTC 2024.View the full article

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may impact parts of the Florida Peninsula today, with a threat for isolated damaging winds and a tornado risk. ...Florida... Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing early this morning over the eastern Gulf of Mexico into parts of the Florida Peninsula in advance of a cold front/surface wave over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The strongest and most organized storms are ongoing offshore, roughly near/south of the Tampa Bay vicinity. This convection will gradually move inland as low-level moistening continues to occur today. Preceding cloud cover and stratiform precipitation should hinder lapse rates and overall heating, and may also hinder updraft parcel accelerations with storms as they cross the Peninsula. It is otherwise notable that low-level shear/SRH will continue to strengthen this morning through midday, before low-level winds tend to veer/weaken later in the day. The potential for isolated damaging winds and a tornado risk will exist as storms move onshore, with a somewhat higher/more focused potential seemingly existing across parts of the west-central/southwest Peninsula through early afternoon. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 4. ...Coastal Carolinas... Low/mid-level winds will notably strengthen over the region today in conjunction with the northeastward-ejecting shortwave trough. Modest low-level moisture advection will occur, with low 60s F dewpoints common ahead of the surface low. Widespread clouds and precipitation will preclude diabatic heating, limiting overall instability. Forecast soundings show very strong shear with large, looping hodographs, conditionally favorable for organized storms including supercells, buoyancy permitting. However, surface-based destabilization is likely to remain focused over the Atlantic Ocean, with little inland progress except perhaps along the coast and Outer Banks. Still, convectively enhanced wind gusts are plausible across the region, although the potential for severe-caliber wind gusts currently appears low. ..Guyer/Smith.. 01/06/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may impact parts of the Florida Peninsula today, with a threat for isolated damaging winds and a tornado risk. ...Florida... Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing early this morning over the eastern Gulf of Mexico into parts of the Florida Peninsula in advance of a cold front/surface wave over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The strongest and most organized storms are ongoing offshore, roughly near/south of the Tampa Bay vicinity. This convection will gradually move inland as low-level moistening continues to occur today. Preceding cloud cover and stratiform precipitation should hinder lapse rates and overall heating, and may also hinder updraft parcel accelerations with storms as they cross the Peninsula. It is otherwise notable that low-level shear/SRH will continue to strengthen this morning through midday, before low-level winds tend to veer/weaken later in the day. The potential for isolated damaging winds and a tornado risk will exist as storms move onshore, with a somewhat higher/more focused potential seemingly existing across parts of the west-central/southwest Peninsula through early afternoon. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 4. ...Coastal Carolinas... Low/mid-level winds will notably strengthen over the region today in conjunction with the northeastward-ejecting shortwave trough. Modest low-level moisture advection will occur, with low 60s F dewpoints common ahead of the surface low. Widespread clouds and precipitation will preclude diabatic heating, limiting overall instability. Forecast soundings show very strong shear with large, looping hodographs, conditionally favorable for organized storms including supercells, buoyancy permitting. However, surface-based destabilization is likely to remain focused over the Atlantic Ocean, with little inland progress except perhaps along the coast and Outer Banks. Still, convectively enhanced wind gusts are plausible across the region, although the potential for severe-caliber wind gusts currently appears low. ..Guyer/Smith.. 01/06/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may impact parts of the Florida Peninsula today, with a threat for isolated damaging winds and a tornado risk. ...Florida... Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing early this morning over the eastern Gulf of Mexico into parts of the Florida Peninsula in advance of a cold front/surface wave over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The strongest and most organized storms are ongoing offshore, roughly near/south of the Tampa Bay vicinity. This convection will gradually move inland as low-level moistening continues to occur today. Preceding cloud cover and stratiform precipitation should hinder lapse rates and overall heating, and may also hinder updraft parcel accelerations with storms as they cross the Peninsula. It is otherwise notable that low-level shear/SRH will continue to strengthen this morning through midday, before low-level winds tend to veer/weaken later in the day. The potential for isolated damaging winds and a tornado risk will exist as storms move onshore, with a somewhat higher/more focused potential seemingly existing across parts of the west-central/southwest Peninsula through early afternoon. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 4. ...Coastal Carolinas... Low/mid-level winds will notably strengthen over the region today in conjunction with the northeastward-ejecting shortwave trough. Modest low-level moisture advection will occur, with low 60s F dewpoints common ahead of the surface low. Widespread clouds and precipitation will preclude diabatic heating, limiting overall instability. Forecast soundings show very strong shear with large, looping hodographs, conditionally favorable for organized storms including supercells, buoyancy permitting. However, surface-based destabilization is likely to remain focused over the Atlantic Ocean, with little inland progress except perhaps along the coast and Outer Banks. Still, convectively enhanced wind gusts are plausible across the region, although the potential for severe-caliber wind gusts currently appears low. ..Guyer/Smith.. 01/06/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may impact parts of the Florida Peninsula today, with a threat for isolated damaging winds and a tornado risk. ...Florida... Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing early this morning over the eastern Gulf of Mexico into parts of the Florida Peninsula in advance of a cold front/surface wave over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The strongest and most organized storms are ongoing offshore, roughly near/south of the Tampa Bay vicinity. This convection will gradually move inland as low-level moistening continues to occur today. Preceding cloud cover and stratiform precipitation should hinder lapse rates and overall heating, and may also hinder updraft parcel accelerations with storms as they cross the Peninsula. It is otherwise notable that low-level shear/SRH will continue to strengthen this morning through midday, before low-level winds tend to veer/weaken later in the day. The potential for isolated damaging winds and a tornado risk will exist as storms move onshore, with a somewhat higher/more focused potential seemingly existing across parts of the west-central/southwest Peninsula through early afternoon. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 4. ...Coastal Carolinas... Low/mid-level winds will notably strengthen over the region today in conjunction with the northeastward-ejecting shortwave trough. Modest low-level moisture advection will occur, with low 60s F dewpoints common ahead of the surface low. Widespread clouds and precipitation will preclude diabatic heating, limiting overall instability. Forecast soundings show very strong shear with large, looping hodographs, conditionally favorable for organized storms including supercells, buoyancy permitting. However, surface-based destabilization is likely to remain focused over the Atlantic Ocean, with little inland progress except perhaps along the coast and Outer Banks. Still, convectively enhanced wind gusts are plausible across the region, although the potential for severe-caliber wind gusts currently appears low. ..Guyer/Smith.. 01/06/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may impact parts of the Florida Peninsula today, with a threat for isolated damaging winds and a tornado risk. ...Florida... Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing early this morning over the eastern Gulf of Mexico into parts of the Florida Peninsula in advance of a cold front/surface wave over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The strongest and most organized storms are ongoing offshore, roughly near/south of the Tampa Bay vicinity. This convection will gradually move inland as low-level moistening continues to occur today. Preceding cloud cover and stratiform precipitation should hinder lapse rates and overall heating, and may also hinder updraft parcel accelerations with storms as they cross the Peninsula. It is otherwise notable that low-level shear/SRH will continue to strengthen this morning through midday, before low-level winds tend to veer/weaken later in the day. The potential for isolated damaging winds and a tornado risk will exist as storms move onshore, with a somewhat higher/more focused potential seemingly existing across parts of the west-central/southwest Peninsula through early afternoon. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 4. ...Coastal Carolinas... Low/mid-level winds will notably strengthen over the region today in conjunction with the northeastward-ejecting shortwave trough. Modest low-level moisture advection will occur, with low 60s F dewpoints common ahead of the surface low. Widespread clouds and precipitation will preclude diabatic heating, limiting overall instability. Forecast soundings show very strong shear with large, looping hodographs, conditionally favorable for organized storms including supercells, buoyancy permitting. However, surface-based destabilization is likely to remain focused over the Atlantic Ocean, with little inland progress except perhaps along the coast and Outer Banks. Still, convectively enhanced wind gusts are plausible across the region, although the potential for severe-caliber wind gusts currently appears low. ..Guyer/Smith.. 01/06/2024 Read more View the full article

MD 0004 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR WEST COAST OF FL Mesoscale Discussion 0004 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0653 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Areas affected...west coast of FL Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 061253Z - 061530Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A low risk for a localized damaging thunderstorm gust and/or brief tornado will seemingly focus near the west coast of the FL Peninsula through 11am EST. DISCUSSION...Water-vapor imagery early this morning shows a mid-level shortwave trough over AL/GA and the FL Panhandle pivoting northeast through the base of a larger-scale trough. A pre-frontal band of showers/thunderstorms extends from 175 mi west-southwest of Sarasota northeastward to 20 mi west-northwest of Ocala as of 745am EST. Surface observations along the west coast ahead of the storm activity indicate dewpoints generally in the 66-69 deg F range. Forecast soundings show a paucity of buoyancy farther north where dewpoints are lower (i.e., mid 60s) but weak buoyancy from Pasco County (100-200 J/kg MLCAPE; supported by the 12 UTC Tampa raob with 100 J/kg MLCAPE) southward to Charlotte Harbor (250-500 J/kg MLCAPE). The KTBW VAD shows around 550 m2/s2 0-1km SRH when inputting observed storm motion. Given the low CAPE/high shear setup, it seems plausible some risk for localized damaging gusts and/or a brief tornado will overspread the beaches and perhaps a row of counties inland during the morning hours. This thunderstorm threat will shift southward along the coast during the morning with the areas from Tampa Bay and areas north likely having a diminished threat by mid-late morning and it shifting towards Charlotte Harbor towards late morning. ..Smith/Guyer.. 01/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX... LAT...LON 29168274 29358251 29228223 28508233 27948243 27668236 26778195 26488198 26438211 26508233 27348282 27988299 28618280 28928283 29168274 Read more View the full article

Special Weather Statement issued January 06 at 7:31AM EST by NWSView the full article

Special Weather Statement issued January 06 at 7:11AM EST by NWSView the full article

Special Weather Statement issued January 06 at 6:26AM EST by NWSView the full article

Special Weather Statement issued January 06 at 6:26AM EST by NWSView the full article

Special Weather Statement issued January 06 at 5:35AM EST by NWSView the full article

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models indicate that rapid, strong surface cyclogenesis will proceed across the Ozark Plateau/Mid South northeastward through the lower Ohio Valley during the day Tuesday. While the associated mid-level trough axis takes on an increasingly negative tilt to the east of the Mississippi Valley, intense wind fields are forecast to overspread much of the eastern Gulf/southern Atlantic Coast region, accompanied by a moistening and at least weakly destabilizing warm sector. It appears that this will include 50-80+ kt south to southwesterly flow in the 850-700 mb layer, contributing to very large, clockwise-curved low-level hodographs. Aided by strong large-scale forcing for ascent, the evolution of an extensive squall line with embedded and preceding discrete supercell structures may be ongoing early Tuesday across parts of the eastern Gulf States through northeastern Gulf of Mexico. This seems likely to pose a continuing risk for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes, while accelerating northeastward and eastward through much of the remainder of the Southeast by Tuesday evening. Thereafter, short wave developments become more unclear into next weekend. However, following renewed amplification within the persistent split flow across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific, models suggest that additional strong cyclogenesis is possible across and northeast of the lower Mississippi Valley by late next Thursday night into Friday/Saturday. Read more View the full article

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models indicate that rapid, strong surface cyclogenesis will proceed across the Ozark Plateau/Mid South northeastward through the lower Ohio Valley during the day Tuesday. While the associated mid-level trough axis takes on an increasingly negative tilt to the east of the Mississippi Valley, intense wind fields are forecast to overspread much of the eastern Gulf/southern Atlantic Coast region, accompanied by a moistening and at least weakly destabilizing warm sector. It appears that this will include 50-80+ kt south to southwesterly flow in the 850-700 mb layer, contributing to very large, clockwise-curved low-level hodographs. Aided by strong large-scale forcing for ascent, the evolution of an extensive squall line with embedded and preceding discrete supercell structures may be ongoing early Tuesday across parts of the eastern Gulf States through northeastern Gulf of Mexico. This seems likely to pose a continuing risk for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes, while accelerating northeastward and eastward through much of the remainder of the Southeast by Tuesday evening. Thereafter, short wave developments become more unclear into next weekend. However, following renewed amplification within the persistent split flow across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific, models suggest that additional strong cyclogenesis is possible across and northeast of the lower Mississippi Valley by late next Thursday night into Friday/Saturday. Read more View the full article

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models indicate that rapid, strong surface cyclogenesis will proceed across the Ozark Plateau/Mid South northeastward through the lower Ohio Valley during the day Tuesday. While the associated mid-level trough axis takes on an increasingly negative tilt to the east of the Mississippi Valley, intense wind fields are forecast to overspread much of the eastern Gulf/southern Atlantic Coast region, accompanied by a moistening and at least weakly destabilizing warm sector. It appears that this will include 50-80+ kt south to southwesterly flow in the 850-700 mb layer, contributing to very large, clockwise-curved low-level hodographs. Aided by strong large-scale forcing for ascent, the evolution of an extensive squall line with embedded and preceding discrete supercell structures may be ongoing early Tuesday across parts of the eastern Gulf States through northeastern Gulf of Mexico. This seems likely to pose a continuing risk for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes, while accelerating northeastward and eastward through much of the remainder of the Southeast by Tuesday evening. Thereafter, short wave developments become more unclear into next weekend. However, following renewed amplification within the persistent split flow across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific, models suggest that additional strong cyclogenesis is possible across and northeast of the lower Mississippi Valley by late next Thursday night into Friday/Saturday. Read more View the full article

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models indicate that rapid, strong surface cyclogenesis will proceed across the Ozark Plateau/Mid South northeastward through the lower Ohio Valley during the day Tuesday. While the associated mid-level trough axis takes on an increasingly negative tilt to the east of the Mississippi Valley, intense wind fields are forecast to overspread much of the eastern Gulf/southern Atlantic Coast region, accompanied by a moistening and at least weakly destabilizing warm sector. It appears that this will include 50-80+ kt south to southwesterly flow in the 850-700 mb layer, contributing to very large, clockwise-curved low-level hodographs. Aided by strong large-scale forcing for ascent, the evolution of an extensive squall line with embedded and preceding discrete supercell structures may be ongoing early Tuesday across parts of the eastern Gulf States through northeastern Gulf of Mexico. This seems likely to pose a continuing risk for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes, while accelerating northeastward and eastward through much of the remainder of the Southeast by Tuesday evening. Thereafter, short wave developments become more unclear into next weekend. However, following renewed amplification within the persistent split flow across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific, models suggest that additional strong cyclogenesis is possible across and northeast of the lower Mississippi Valley by late next Thursday night into Friday/Saturday. Read more View the full article

MD 0003 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR WESTERN NC...WESTERN INTO CENTRAL VA...FAR SOUTHEASTERN WV Mesoscale Discussion 0003 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Areas affected...western NC...western into central VA...far southeastern WV Concerning...Freezing rain Valid 060828Z - 061430Z SUMMARY...Freezing rain is forecast to develop from southwest to northeast through 10am EST. Freezing rain rates will initially be light as the atmospheric column moistens, but rates are forecast to intensify into the 0.05-0.15 inch/3 hour range. A transition from freezing rain to rain is forecast to occur over western NC into southern portions of western VA primarily during the 7-10am EST period. DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic as of 325am EST shows an extensive precipitation shield across GA into western SC and moving northeast into the southern Appalachians. This precipitation is in response to a mid-level shortwave trough moving northeast across the lower MS Valley early this morning. This mid-level feature is forecast to move into the southern Appalachians during the morning. Strong low-level warm-air advection and moistening via a warm conveyor belt are acting to enhance large-scale lift and contribute to a moistening atmospheric column during the pre-dawn hours across western NC into western/central VA. The latest ensemble model guidance (i.e., HREF, SREF) show agreement in depicting a swath of precipitation spreading north-northeast with hourly rates generally in the 0.05-0.15 inch range. Forecast soundings indicate thermal profiles supporting freezing rain as the primary precipitation type from western NC northward through much of western VA and adjacent southeastern WV. However, this shallow sub-freezing layer near the surface is forecast to slowly erode across western NC and southern parts of western VA as surface temperatures warm to 32 deg F or higher, primarily during the 7-10am EST period. Farther north, some intermittent mixing of freezing rain and sleet is possible especially on the northern periphery of the discussion area (i.e., northwestern parts of VA). ..Smith.. 01/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...RLX...GSP... LAT...LON 37327841 36917897 36777954 36628003 36278078 35868160 35548205 35308234 35378265 35428265 35958223 36278170 36808133 37218127 37488119 37808091 38397955 38557864 38467786 38217781 37327841 Read more View the full article

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN ALABAMA INTO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts and tornadoes, are possible across parts of southern Louisiana and southern Mississippi into southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle by late Monday night. ...Synopsis... As initially amplified ridging, within the prevailing split mid/upper flow over the eastern mid-latitude Pacific, is suppressed further by another vigorous short wave trough approaching the Pacific Northwest, a significant evolving downstream trough is forecast to turn east of the Rockies through this period. Models indicate that it will take on a more neutral tilt, and come in better phase with another perturbation within a belt of westerlies emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific, as it progresses across the southern Great Plains Monday night. At least modest surface cyclogenesis may already by ongoing across the Texas Panhandle vicinity by Monday morning. However, there is increasing spread evident within the latest model output concerning subsequent developments across Oklahoma into the Ozark Plateau/Mid South vicinity by early Tuesday. A secondary surface low may develop across and north-northeast of the upper Texas coastal plain late Monday afternoon and evening. It is unclear whether this will merge with the primary cyclone Monday night. But, the evolution of a broad and deep primary surface cyclone still appears likely, late Monday night through Tuesday. Low-level moisture return off a modifying boundary over the northern Gulf of Mexico may contribute to considerable cloud cover and precipitation across and inland of coastal areas. Forcing for ascent associated with the subtropical perturbation, aided by low-level warm advection, may contribute to considerable thunderstorm activity near/offshore of upper Texas into central Gulf coastal areas prior to the inland advance of an unstable warm sector boundary layer. Still, the inland advection of mid 60s+ surface dew points across mid/upper Texas into Louisiana coastal areas appears probable Monday into Monday evening, and across at least southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southwestern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle by late Monday night. Models continue to suggest that this will be sufficient to support mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg. ...Gulf Coast vicinity... The extent of the organized severe weather potential across mid/upper Texas into Louisiana coastal areas Monday afternoon and evening, and the potential for hail in elevated convection farther inland, remain at least somewhat unclear. Much may depend on sub-synoptic forcing, but with inland spread of a destabilizing warm sector, there probably will be at least a window of opportunity for scattered boundary-layer based convection, including supercells, in an environment conditionally conducive to large hail and tornadoes. The most significant severe weather potential still seems likely to await the development of the stronger dynamic forcing for ascent, and related rapid surface cyclone deepening, which may impact parts of southeastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi into southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle by late Monday night, if not earlier. Inland boundary-layer destabilization coupled with intensifying wind fields, including south to southwesterly flow of 50-70+ kt in the 850-700 mb layer, could contribute to an environment potentially supportive of strong tornadoes. This may accompany the evolution of both discrete supercells and an organizing line or cluster of storms prior to 12Z Tuesday. ..Kerr.. 01/06/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN ALABAMA INTO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts and tornadoes, are possible across parts of southern Louisiana and southern Mississippi into southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle by late Monday night. ...Synopsis... As initially amplified ridging, within the prevailing split mid/upper flow over the eastern mid-latitude Pacific, is suppressed further by another vigorous short wave trough approaching the Pacific Northwest, a significant evolving downstream trough is forecast to turn east of the Rockies through this period. Models indicate that it will take on a more neutral tilt, and come in better phase with another perturbation within a belt of westerlies emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific, as it progresses across the southern Great Plains Monday night. At least modest surface cyclogenesis may already by ongoing across the Texas Panhandle vicinity by Monday morning. However, there is increasing spread evident within the latest model output concerning subsequent developments across Oklahoma into the Ozark Plateau/Mid South vicinity by early Tuesday. A secondary surface low may develop across and north-northeast of the upper Texas coastal plain late Monday afternoon and evening. It is unclear whether this will merge with the primary cyclone Monday night. But, the evolution of a broad and deep primary surface cyclone still appears likely, late Monday night through Tuesday. Low-level moisture return off a modifying boundary over the northern Gulf of Mexico may contribute to considerable cloud cover and precipitation across and inland of coastal areas. Forcing for ascent associated with the subtropical perturbation, aided by low-level warm advection, may contribute to considerable thunderstorm activity near/offshore of upper Texas into central Gulf coastal areas prior to the inland advance of an unstable warm sector boundary layer. Still, the inland advection of mid 60s+ surface dew points across mid/upper Texas into Louisiana coastal areas appears probable Monday into Monday evening, and across at least southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southwestern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle by late Monday night. Models continue to suggest that this will be sufficient to support mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg. ...Gulf Coast vicinity... The extent of the organized severe weather potential across mid/upper Texas into Louisiana coastal areas Monday afternoon and evening, and the potential for hail in elevated convection farther inland, remain at least somewhat unclear. Much may depend on sub-synoptic forcing, but with inland spread of a destabilizing warm sector, there probably will be at least a window of opportunity for scattered boundary-layer based convection, including supercells, in an environment conditionally conducive to large hail and tornadoes. The most significant severe weather potential still seems likely to await the development of the stronger dynamic forcing for ascent, and related rapid surface cyclone deepening, which may impact parts of southeastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi into southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle by late Monday night, if not earlier. Inland boundary-layer destabilization coupled with intensifying wind fields, including south to southwesterly flow of 50-70+ kt in the 850-700 mb layer, could contribute to an environment potentially supportive of strong tornadoes. This may accompany the evolution of both discrete supercells and an organizing line or cluster of storms prior to 12Z Tuesday. ..Kerr.. 01/06/2024 Read more View the full article