NorthGeorgiaWX

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 PM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the Florida Peninsula today, with a threat for isolated damaging winds. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will lose amplitude as it moves quickly from the southern Appalachians to the Mid Atlantic during the day, providing lift via cooling aloft and low-level warm advection. South of there, wind will veer as the wave exits to the northeast. Winds around 850 mb will be strong ahead of the low, with speeds over 60 kt out of the south across NC. At the surface, low pressure is forecast to deepen as it moves in tandem with the upper wave, with a cold front extending southwestward into the eastern Gulf of Mexico and toward the western FL Peninsula. Gradual warming will occur across the coastal Carolinas with a warm front, though this may be counteracted by precipitation. Farther south, mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will over spread much of FL, but instability will be weak. ...FL... Storms are likely to be ongoing along the cold front, extending from northern FL into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The strongest storms are forecast to remain over the water, as poor low-level lapse rates and thus weaker instability will exist over land. The greatest chance of isolated strong gusts or a perhaps a brief tornado appears to be with storms moving ashore during the day, as the regime translates southward along the coast. Shear will be strongest through midday, prior to the veering wind regime in the wake of the upper trough. ...Coastal Carolinas... Shear will remain strong over the region even as the upper wave loses amplitude. As the surface low travels from SC into eastern VA during the day, modest low-level moisture advection will occur, with low 60s F dewpoints common ahead of the low. Widespread clouds and precipitation will preclude diabatic heating, limiting instability. Forecast sounding show very strong shear with large, looping hodographs, conditionally favorable for supercells. However, SBCAPE is likely to remain over the Atlantic Ocean, with little inland progress except perhaps along the coast and Outer Banks. Still, strong flow just off the surface cold aid wind gust potential with any stronger convection. At this time, the threat appears too low to introduce severe probabilities. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 01/06/2024 Read more View the full article

Winter Weather Advisory issued January 05 at 9:55PM EST until January 06 at 8:00AM EST by NWSView the full article

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0641 PM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur across the coastal Florida Panhandle later tonight. ...Discussion... Surface analysis shows a stable boundary layer over the Gulf Coast, with only 50s F dewpoints over much of the area. The exception is over far southeast LA, where lower 60s F dewpoints remain. The air mass here, as well as farther northeast into coastal MS/AL/western FL Panhandle, will experience widespread precipitation this evening and overnight due to warm advection just above the boundary layer. This will continue to be the primary mitigating factor for severe potential. Late tonight, mid 60s F dewpoints are forecast to move ashore across the FL Panhandle, as strong southwest flow ahead of the upper trough persist. Precise instability measures are difficult given expected antecedent rainfall, but 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE may eventually materialize. Forecast soundings indicate most of this CAPE will be ineffective due to the cool boundary layer. However, uncapped SBCAPE may develop along the immediate coast, which could conditionally support isolated severe gusts or even a brief tornado. As such, low severe probabilities have been maintained over the area. ..Jewell.. 01/06/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0641 PM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur across the coastal Florida Panhandle later tonight. ...Discussion... Surface analysis shows a stable boundary layer over the Gulf Coast, with only 50s F dewpoints over much of the area. The exception is over far southeast LA, where lower 60s F dewpoints remain. The air mass here, as well as farther northeast into coastal MS/AL/western FL Panhandle, will experience widespread precipitation this evening and overnight due to warm advection just above the boundary layer. This will continue to be the primary mitigating factor for severe potential. Late tonight, mid 60s F dewpoints are forecast to move ashore across the FL Panhandle, as strong southwest flow ahead of the upper trough persist. Precise instability measures are difficult given expected antecedent rainfall, but 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE may eventually materialize. Forecast soundings indicate most of this CAPE will be ineffective due to the cool boundary layer. However, uncapped SBCAPE may develop along the immediate coast, which could conditionally support isolated severe gusts or even a brief tornado. As such, low severe probabilities have been maintained over the area. ..Jewell.. 01/06/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A progressive upper-level pattern is expected to continue through the end of next week and possibly into next weekend. Shortwave troughs are expected to move from the Southwest into the southern Plains and eventually the East both around Monday and again around next Friday as currently forecast. This overall pattern will favor cool/cold conditions over a broad swath of the CONUS. Furthermore, precipitation can be expected as strong surface cyclones develop along with their parent troughs. Guidance does show agreement that a minimum in precipitation is probable in parts of the Trans-Pecos extending into the Edwards Plateau and parts of the Rio Grande Valley. The driest and windiest conditions appear most likely to occur this coming Sunday as well as next Thursday, with lesser conditions possible on intervening days. Current fuel status would suggest low potential for critical fire weather in these areas. Additionally, there is the uncertainty of where and how much precipitation will occur. These areas will continue to be monitored as winds could be strong, but highlights will continue to be withheld at this time. ..Wendt.. 01/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A progressive upper-level pattern is expected to continue through the end of next week and possibly into next weekend. Shortwave troughs are expected to move from the Southwest into the southern Plains and eventually the East both around Monday and again around next Friday as currently forecast. This overall pattern will favor cool/cold conditions over a broad swath of the CONUS. Furthermore, precipitation can be expected as strong surface cyclones develop along with their parent troughs. Guidance does show agreement that a minimum in precipitation is probable in parts of the Trans-Pecos extending into the Edwards Plateau and parts of the Rio Grande Valley. The driest and windiest conditions appear most likely to occur this coming Sunday as well as next Thursday, with lesser conditions possible on intervening days. Current fuel status would suggest low potential for critical fire weather in these areas. Additionally, there is the uncertainty of where and how much precipitation will occur. These areas will continue to be monitored as winds could be strong, but highlights will continue to be withheld at this time. ..Wendt.. 01/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG PARTS OF THE LA/MS/AL/FL GULF COASTS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur along the Gulf Coast this afternoon through tonight, including coastal areas of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. ...20Z Update... The Marginal Risk and general thunderstorm areas have been trimmed from the west across parts of the TX and LA Gulf Coasts, to reflect the eastward advance of extensive convection extending from the northwest Gulf of Mexico into southern LA. Otherwise, no changes have been made. Substantial organized convection is expected to remain mostly over the Gulf of Mexico through tonight, with only very weak surface-based instability expected inland. However, some threat for a tornado or two and/or locally damaging wind could spread inland as stronger storms over the Gulf approach the coast. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Dean.. 01/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024/ ...Gulf Coast Region... Morning water vapory imagery shows a strong upper trough progressing eastward across TX/OK, with a 70-80 knot mid-level jet extending across south TX into the western Gulf of Mexico. A surface low associated with this upper trough and jet is positioned just south of the Upper Texas coast, where a line of strong storms extends from the coast southward into the Gulf. Low-level trajectories have been slow to back to southerly, resulting in a limited northward transport of rich moisture/instability. Onshore thunderstorm activity is in an environment of surface dewpoints only in the 50s, and should remain elevated in nature through much of the afternoon. Visible satellite imagery shows multiple small cellular convective elements well offshore, tracking northeastward. With continued daytime heating, a few of these cells may organized/intensify and drift toward southern LA late this afternoon and evening. Shear profiles would pose a risk of supercells, but it remains unclear how far inland the risk of surface-based convection will spread. Any storms in this regime that are surface-based would represent a risk of gusty/damaging wind gusts or a tornado. A similar threat will persist overnight as the convective cluster moves eastward along the MS/AL/FL coast. Read more View the full article

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG PARTS OF THE LA/MS/AL/FL GULF COASTS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur along the Gulf Coast this afternoon through tonight, including coastal areas of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. ...20Z Update... The Marginal Risk and general thunderstorm areas have been trimmed from the west across parts of the TX and LA Gulf Coasts, to reflect the eastward advance of extensive convection extending from the northwest Gulf of Mexico into southern LA. Otherwise, no changes have been made. Substantial organized convection is expected to remain mostly over the Gulf of Mexico through tonight, with only very weak surface-based instability expected inland. However, some threat for a tornado or two and/or locally damaging wind could spread inland as stronger storms over the Gulf approach the coast. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Dean.. 01/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024/ ...Gulf Coast Region... Morning water vapory imagery shows a strong upper trough progressing eastward across TX/OK, with a 70-80 knot mid-level jet extending across south TX into the western Gulf of Mexico. A surface low associated with this upper trough and jet is positioned just south of the Upper Texas coast, where a line of strong storms extends from the coast southward into the Gulf. Low-level trajectories have been slow to back to southerly, resulting in a limited northward transport of rich moisture/instability. Onshore thunderstorm activity is in an environment of surface dewpoints only in the 50s, and should remain elevated in nature through much of the afternoon. Visible satellite imagery shows multiple small cellular convective elements well offshore, tracking northeastward. With continued daytime heating, a few of these cells may organized/intensify and drift toward southern LA late this afternoon and evening. Shear profiles would pose a risk of supercells, but it remains unclear how far inland the risk of surface-based convection will spread. Any storms in this regime that are surface-based would represent a risk of gusty/damaging wind gusts or a tornado. A similar threat will persist overnight as the convective cluster moves eastward along the MS/AL/FL coast. Read more View the full article

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG PARTS OF THE LA/MS/AL/FL GULF COASTS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur along the Gulf Coast this afternoon through tonight, including coastal areas of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. ...20Z Update... The Marginal Risk and general thunderstorm areas have been trimmed from the west across parts of the TX and LA Gulf Coasts, to reflect the eastward advance of extensive convection extending from the northwest Gulf of Mexico into southern LA. Otherwise, no changes have been made. Substantial organized convection is expected to remain mostly over the Gulf of Mexico through tonight, with only very weak surface-based instability expected inland. However, some threat for a tornado or two and/or locally damaging wind could spread inland as stronger storms over the Gulf approach the coast. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Dean.. 01/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024/ ...Gulf Coast Region... Morning water vapory imagery shows a strong upper trough progressing eastward across TX/OK, with a 70-80 knot mid-level jet extending across south TX into the western Gulf of Mexico. A surface low associated with this upper trough and jet is positioned just south of the Upper Texas coast, where a line of strong storms extends from the coast southward into the Gulf. Low-level trajectories have been slow to back to southerly, resulting in a limited northward transport of rich moisture/instability. Onshore thunderstorm activity is in an environment of surface dewpoints only in the 50s, and should remain elevated in nature through much of the afternoon. Visible satellite imagery shows multiple small cellular convective elements well offshore, tracking northeastward. With continued daytime heating, a few of these cells may organized/intensify and drift toward southern LA late this afternoon and evening. Shear profiles would pose a risk of supercells, but it remains unclear how far inland the risk of surface-based convection will spread. Any storms in this regime that are surface-based would represent a risk of gusty/damaging wind gusts or a tornado. A similar threat will persist overnight as the convective cluster moves eastward along the MS/AL/FL coast. Read more View the full article

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG PARTS OF THE LA/MS/AL/FL GULF COASTS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur along the Gulf Coast this afternoon through tonight, including coastal areas of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. ...20Z Update... The Marginal Risk and general thunderstorm areas have been trimmed from the west across parts of the TX and LA Gulf Coasts, to reflect the eastward advance of extensive convection extending from the northwest Gulf of Mexico into southern LA. Otherwise, no changes have been made. Substantial organized convection is expected to remain mostly over the Gulf of Mexico through tonight, with only very weak surface-based instability expected inland. However, some threat for a tornado or two and/or locally damaging wind could spread inland as stronger storms over the Gulf approach the coast. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Dean.. 01/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024/ ...Gulf Coast Region... Morning water vapory imagery shows a strong upper trough progressing eastward across TX/OK, with a 70-80 knot mid-level jet extending across south TX into the western Gulf of Mexico. A surface low associated with this upper trough and jet is positioned just south of the Upper Texas coast, where a line of strong storms extends from the coast southward into the Gulf. Low-level trajectories have been slow to back to southerly, resulting in a limited northward transport of rich moisture/instability. Onshore thunderstorm activity is in an environment of surface dewpoints only in the 50s, and should remain elevated in nature through much of the afternoon. Visible satellite imagery shows multiple small cellular convective elements well offshore, tracking northeastward. With continued daytime heating, a few of these cells may organized/intensify and drift toward southern LA late this afternoon and evening. Shear profiles would pose a risk of supercells, but it remains unclear how far inland the risk of surface-based convection will spread. Any storms in this regime that are surface-based would represent a risk of gusty/damaging wind gusts or a tornado. A similar threat will persist overnight as the convective cluster moves eastward along the MS/AL/FL coast. Read more View the full article

Winter Weather Advisory issued January 05 at 2:26PM EST until January 06 at 8:00AM EST by NWSView the full article

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Jan 5 18:46:02 UTC 2024.View the full article

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 PM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... Active mid-level flow will continue over the CONUS into D2/Saturday as the eastern US shortwave trough continues to approaches the Atlantic Coast. The accompanying surface low is forecast to intensify through the forecast period, bringing widespread precipitation the Mid Atlantic and Northeast States. At the same time, a second trough will approach the Pacific coast as mid-level flow intensifies over the southern third of the CONUS. Widespread precipitation is forecast to develop over the West while a cool air mass resides over the central US. Outside of locally breezy winds across parts of the far southern Plains, dry and windy conditions are not expected to overlap with areas of dry fuels. Fire-weather concerns are low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 PM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... Active mid-level flow will continue over the CONUS into D2/Saturday as the eastern US shortwave trough continues to approaches the Atlantic Coast. The accompanying surface low is forecast to intensify through the forecast period, bringing widespread precipitation the Mid Atlantic and Northeast States. At the same time, a second trough will approach the Pacific coast as mid-level flow intensifies over the southern third of the CONUS. Widespread precipitation is forecast to develop over the West while a cool air mass resides over the central US. Outside of locally breezy winds across parts of the far southern Plains, dry and windy conditions are not expected to overlap with areas of dry fuels. Fire-weather concerns are low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the Florida Peninsula Saturday, with a threat for isolated damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move quickly northeastward from parts of the Southeast/TN Valley toward the Mid Atlantic by mid/late afternoon, and off of the southern New England coast by early Sunday morning. An attendant surface low will move from south GA toward the VA Tidewater by Saturday evening, as a trailing cold front moves through parts of the Carolinas/GA into the FL Peninsula. ...Florida... In conjunction with the ejecting shortwave trough, rather widespread and organized convection is expected over the Gulf of Mexico late Friday night into the beginning of the D2 forecast period Saturday morning, within a moderately unstable and favorably sheared environment. This convection will begin to affect portions of the FL Gulf Coast during the morning, though some weakening trend is expected as storms encounter a less unstable environment over the peninsula. While there will be some potential for pre-convective heating and moistening across south and east FL during the day, storms may struggle to maintain intensity across the peninsula due to weak midlevel lapse rates and the tendency for stronger large-scale ascent to depart the region in association with the ejecting shortwave trough. Favorable low-level and deep-layer shear will support the threat of a tornado or two and locally damaging gusts with any organized storm structures that can be sustained over coastal regions into the peninsula. With favorable wind profiles expected, but also concerns regarding instability and storm maintenance over the peninsula, a broad Marginal Risk has been maintained over much of the FL Peninsula. ...Eastern Carolinas... With the surface low expected to track northeastward toward the Tidewater vicinity, the effective warm sector will likely advance into eastern portions of the Carolinas. However, with antecedent cool/dry conditions over the region, increasing boundary-layer moisture will be accompanied by substantial cloudiness and limited potential for destabilization. At this time, potential for robust surface-based convection appears too limited for severe probabilities across the eastern Carolinas, but this potential will continue to be monitored. ..Dean.. 01/05/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the Florida Peninsula Saturday, with a threat for isolated damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move quickly northeastward from parts of the Southeast/TN Valley toward the Mid Atlantic by mid/late afternoon, and off of the southern New England coast by early Sunday morning. An attendant surface low will move from south GA toward the VA Tidewater by Saturday evening, as a trailing cold front moves through parts of the Carolinas/GA into the FL Peninsula. ...Florida... In conjunction with the ejecting shortwave trough, rather widespread and organized convection is expected over the Gulf of Mexico late Friday night into the beginning of the D2 forecast period Saturday morning, within a moderately unstable and favorably sheared environment. This convection will begin to affect portions of the FL Gulf Coast during the morning, though some weakening trend is expected as storms encounter a less unstable environment over the peninsula. While there will be some potential for pre-convective heating and moistening across south and east FL during the day, storms may struggle to maintain intensity across the peninsula due to weak midlevel lapse rates and the tendency for stronger large-scale ascent to depart the region in association with the ejecting shortwave trough. Favorable low-level and deep-layer shear will support the threat of a tornado or two and locally damaging gusts with any organized storm structures that can be sustained over coastal regions into the peninsula. With favorable wind profiles expected, but also concerns regarding instability and storm maintenance over the peninsula, a broad Marginal Risk has been maintained over much of the FL Peninsula. ...Eastern Carolinas... With the surface low expected to track northeastward toward the Tidewater vicinity, the effective warm sector will likely advance into eastern portions of the Carolinas. However, with antecedent cool/dry conditions over the region, increasing boundary-layer moisture will be accompanied by substantial cloudiness and limited potential for destabilization. At this time, potential for robust surface-based convection appears too limited for severe probabilities across the eastern Carolinas, but this potential will continue to be monitored. ..Dean.. 01/05/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the Florida Peninsula Saturday, with a threat for isolated damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move quickly northeastward from parts of the Southeast/TN Valley toward the Mid Atlantic by mid/late afternoon, and off of the southern New England coast by early Sunday morning. An attendant surface low will move from south GA toward the VA Tidewater by Saturday evening, as a trailing cold front moves through parts of the Carolinas/GA into the FL Peninsula. ...Florida... In conjunction with the ejecting shortwave trough, rather widespread and organized convection is expected over the Gulf of Mexico late Friday night into the beginning of the D2 forecast period Saturday morning, within a moderately unstable and favorably sheared environment. This convection will begin to affect portions of the FL Gulf Coast during the morning, though some weakening trend is expected as storms encounter a less unstable environment over the peninsula. While there will be some potential for pre-convective heating and moistening across south and east FL during the day, storms may struggle to maintain intensity across the peninsula due to weak midlevel lapse rates and the tendency for stronger large-scale ascent to depart the region in association with the ejecting shortwave trough. Favorable low-level and deep-layer shear will support the threat of a tornado or two and locally damaging gusts with any organized storm structures that can be sustained over coastal regions into the peninsula. With favorable wind profiles expected, but also concerns regarding instability and storm maintenance over the peninsula, a broad Marginal Risk has been maintained over much of the FL Peninsula. ...Eastern Carolinas... With the surface low expected to track northeastward toward the Tidewater vicinity, the effective warm sector will likely advance into eastern portions of the Carolinas. However, with antecedent cool/dry conditions over the region, increasing boundary-layer moisture will be accompanied by substantial cloudiness and limited potential for destabilization. At this time, potential for robust surface-based convection appears too limited for severe probabilities across the eastern Carolinas, but this potential will continue to be monitored. ..Dean.. 01/05/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the Florida Peninsula Saturday, with a threat for isolated damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move quickly northeastward from parts of the Southeast/TN Valley toward the Mid Atlantic by mid/late afternoon, and off of the southern New England coast by early Sunday morning. An attendant surface low will move from south GA toward the VA Tidewater by Saturday evening, as a trailing cold front moves through parts of the Carolinas/GA into the FL Peninsula. ...Florida... In conjunction with the ejecting shortwave trough, rather widespread and organized convection is expected over the Gulf of Mexico late Friday night into the beginning of the D2 forecast period Saturday morning, within a moderately unstable and favorably sheared environment. This convection will begin to affect portions of the FL Gulf Coast during the morning, though some weakening trend is expected as storms encounter a less unstable environment over the peninsula. While there will be some potential for pre-convective heating and moistening across south and east FL during the day, storms may struggle to maintain intensity across the peninsula due to weak midlevel lapse rates and the tendency for stronger large-scale ascent to depart the region in association with the ejecting shortwave trough. Favorable low-level and deep-layer shear will support the threat of a tornado or two and locally damaging gusts with any organized storm structures that can be sustained over coastal regions into the peninsula. With favorable wind profiles expected, but also concerns regarding instability and storm maintenance over the peninsula, a broad Marginal Risk has been maintained over much of the FL Peninsula. ...Eastern Carolinas... With the surface low expected to track northeastward toward the Tidewater vicinity, the effective warm sector will likely advance into eastern portions of the Carolinas. However, with antecedent cool/dry conditions over the region, increasing boundary-layer moisture will be accompanied by substantial cloudiness and limited potential for destabilization. At this time, potential for robust surface-based convection appears too limited for severe probabilities across the eastern Carolinas, but this potential will continue to be monitored. ..Dean.. 01/05/2024 Read more View the full article

Winter Weather Advisory issued January 05 at 12:24PM EST until January 06 at 8:00AM EST by NWSView the full article

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur along the Gulf Coast today through tonight, including coastal areas of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. ...Gulf Coast Region... Morning water vapory imagery shows a strong upper trough progressing eastward across TX/OK, with a 70-80 knot mid-level jet extending across south TX into the western Gulf of Mexico. A surface low associated with this upper trough and jet is positioned just south of the Upper Texas coast, where a line of strong storms extends from the coast southward into the Gulf. Low-level trajectories have been slow to back to southerly, resulting in a limited northward transport of rich moisture/instability. Onshore thunderstorm activity is in an environment of surface dewpoints only in the 50s, and should remain elevated in nature through much of the afternoon. Visible satellite imagery shows multiple small cellular convective elements well offshore, tracking northeastward. With continued daytime heating, a few of these cells may organized/intensify and drift toward southern LA late this afternoon and evening. Shear profiles would pose a risk of supercells, but it remains unclear how far inland the risk of surface-based convection will spread. Any storms in this regime that are surface-based would represent a risk of gusty/damaging wind gusts or a tornado. A similar threat will persist overnight as the convective cluster moves eastward along the MS/AL/FL coast. ..Hart/Bentley.. 01/05/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur along the Gulf Coast today through tonight, including coastal areas of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. ...Gulf Coast Region... Morning water vapory imagery shows a strong upper trough progressing eastward across TX/OK, with a 70-80 knot mid-level jet extending across south TX into the western Gulf of Mexico. A surface low associated with this upper trough and jet is positioned just south of the Upper Texas coast, where a line of strong storms extends from the coast southward into the Gulf. Low-level trajectories have been slow to back to southerly, resulting in a limited northward transport of rich moisture/instability. Onshore thunderstorm activity is in an environment of surface dewpoints only in the 50s, and should remain elevated in nature through much of the afternoon. Visible satellite imagery shows multiple small cellular convective elements well offshore, tracking northeastward. With continued daytime heating, a few of these cells may organized/intensify and drift toward southern LA late this afternoon and evening. Shear profiles would pose a risk of supercells, but it remains unclear how far inland the risk of surface-based convection will spread. Any storms in this regime that are surface-based would represent a risk of gusty/damaging wind gusts or a tornado. A similar threat will persist overnight as the convective cluster moves eastward along the MS/AL/FL coast. ..Hart/Bentley.. 01/05/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur along the Gulf Coast today through tonight, including coastal areas of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. ...Gulf Coast Region... Morning water vapory imagery shows a strong upper trough progressing eastward across TX/OK, with a 70-80 knot mid-level jet extending across south TX into the western Gulf of Mexico. A surface low associated with this upper trough and jet is positioned just south of the Upper Texas coast, where a line of strong storms extends from the coast southward into the Gulf. Low-level trajectories have been slow to back to southerly, resulting in a limited northward transport of rich moisture/instability. Onshore thunderstorm activity is in an environment of surface dewpoints only in the 50s, and should remain elevated in nature through much of the afternoon. Visible satellite imagery shows multiple small cellular convective elements well offshore, tracking northeastward. With continued daytime heating, a few of these cells may organized/intensify and drift toward southern LA late this afternoon and evening. Shear profiles would pose a risk of supercells, but it remains unclear how far inland the risk of surface-based convection will spread. Any storms in this regime that are surface-based would represent a risk of gusty/damaging wind gusts or a tornado. A similar threat will persist overnight as the convective cluster moves eastward along the MS/AL/FL coast. ..Hart/Bentley.. 01/05/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur along the Gulf Coast today through tonight, including coastal areas of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. ...Gulf Coast Region... Morning water vapory imagery shows a strong upper trough progressing eastward across TX/OK, with a 70-80 knot mid-level jet extending across south TX into the western Gulf of Mexico. A surface low associated with this upper trough and jet is positioned just south of the Upper Texas coast, where a line of strong storms extends from the coast southward into the Gulf. Low-level trajectories have been slow to back to southerly, resulting in a limited northward transport of rich moisture/instability. Onshore thunderstorm activity is in an environment of surface dewpoints only in the 50s, and should remain elevated in nature through much of the afternoon. Visible satellite imagery shows multiple small cellular convective elements well offshore, tracking northeastward. With continued daytime heating, a few of these cells may organized/intensify and drift toward southern LA late this afternoon and evening. Shear profiles would pose a risk of supercells, but it remains unclear how far inland the risk of surface-based convection will spread. Any storms in this regime that are surface-based would represent a risk of gusty/damaging wind gusts or a tornado. A similar threat will persist overnight as the convective cluster moves eastward along the MS/AL/FL coast. ..Hart/Bentley.. 01/05/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1009 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... Across the CONUS, fire-weather concerns appear limited. An active southern stream shortwave trough will deepen over the southern Plains as it moves eastward. At the surface, cold high pressure will persist across the northern half of the country as a Gulf low and trailing cold front move eastward accompanying the deepening mid-level trough. Gusty winds are possible across parts of the southern High Plains and West Texas as the surface low deepens. However, widespread precipitation is expected from the southern Plains to the lower MS valley, along with cold temperatures across the northern half of the CONUS. With widespread precipitation and cooler temperatures expected to limit the availability of dry fuels over much of the country, fire-weather concerns are low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1009 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... Across the CONUS, fire-weather concerns appear limited. An active southern stream shortwave trough will deepen over the southern Plains as it moves eastward. At the surface, cold high pressure will persist across the northern half of the country as a Gulf low and trailing cold front move eastward accompanying the deepening mid-level trough. Gusty winds are possible across parts of the southern High Plains and West Texas as the surface low deepens. However, widespread precipitation is expected from the southern Plains to the lower MS valley, along with cold temperatures across the northern half of the CONUS. With widespread precipitation and cooler temperatures expected to limit the availability of dry fuels over much of the country, fire-weather concerns are low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article