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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... An intense upper-level trough and surface low are forecast to amplify further as they move eastward across the south-central CONUS D2/Monday. In the wake of the low, a strong cold front will move eastward ushering in a windy, but much colder air mass. A few hours of dry and windy conditions are possible over parts of West TX. ...West TX... As the upper trough and surface low continue to intensify over the Southern Plains, low-level winds are expected to increase across the TX Trans Pecos region through much of D2/Monday. Strong pressure gradients behind the low will aid downslope gusts of 25-35 mph. Coincident with the increasing winds, a dry low-level air mass with RH values below 25% is possible. A few hours of elevated meteorological conditions may develop in the afternoon. With strong winds and areas of low humidity potentially overlapping ahead of the cooler air mass, elevated fire-weather conditions are a possibility, for a few hours, despite modest fuel availability. ..Lyons.. 01/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... An intense upper-level trough and surface low are forecast to amplify further as they move eastward across the south-central CONUS D2/Monday. In the wake of the low, a strong cold front will move eastward ushering in a windy, but much colder air mass. A few hours of dry and windy conditions are possible over parts of West TX. ...West TX... As the upper trough and surface low continue to intensify over the Southern Plains, low-level winds are expected to increase across the TX Trans Pecos region through much of D2/Monday. Strong pressure gradients behind the low will aid downslope gusts of 25-35 mph. Coincident with the increasing winds, a dry low-level air mass with RH values below 25% is possible. A few hours of elevated meteorological conditions may develop in the afternoon. With strong winds and areas of low humidity potentially overlapping ahead of the cooler air mass, elevated fire-weather conditions are a possibility, for a few hours, despite modest fuel availability. ..Lyons.. 01/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An amplified and progressive mid-level flow pattern will persist over the CONUS as a Pacific trough is forecast to rapidly deepen over parts of the western US before ejecting eastward over the southern Plains. In response, a strong lee low will develop, supporting gusty winds across parts of West TX. However, cool temperatures and widespread recent precipitation should limit fire-weather concerns. ...Texas Trans Pecos... As the upper trough and surface low move across the southern Plains, strong southerly winds and pockets of lower humidity are possible over parts of West TX and southern NM. Gusts of 25-35 mph and RH values below 20% are possible over a minima in recent precipitation. Elevated to critical meteorological conditions are possible in parts of southern New Mexico into the Trans-Pecos. However, unreceptive fuels are not expected to support widespread concerns. ..Lyons.. 01/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Jan 7 07:31:02 UTC 2024.View the full article

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 PM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts and tornadoes, are possible across parts of southern Louisiana and southern Mississippi into southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle by late Monday night. ...Synopsis... As initially amplified mid/upper ridging, within the prevailing split flow across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific, is suppressed further by another vigorous short wave trough approaching the Pacific Northwest, a significant evolving downstream trough is forecast to turn east of the Rockies through this period. Models indicate that it will take on a more neutral tilt, and come in better phase with another perturbation within a belt of westerlies emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific, as it progresses across the southern Great Plains Monday night. However, considerable spread is evident among the various model output concerning the more specific details of this evolution, and associated cyclogenesis, particularly late Monday into Monday night. It still appears that at least modest surface cyclogenesis may be ongoing across the Texas Panhandle vicinity by late Monday morning, but there may be little further deepening through the day as it migrates east-northeastward across the southern Great Plains. A secondary frontal wave may form across and northeast of the upper Texas coastal plain late Monday afternoon and evening, but more rapid deepening of the primary surface cyclone may not commence across the Ozark Plateau/Mid South vicinity until the overnight hours. Low-level moisture return off a modifying boundary layer over the northern Gulf of Mexico may contribute to considerable cloud cover and at least light precipitation across and well inland of Gulf coastal areas through the day Monday. By early Monday, stronger mid-level cooling and forcing for ascent spreading east/southeast of the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle vicinity may already be contributing to a developing line of storms, rooted above a relative deep cold/stable surface-based layer. During the day, ascent driven by low-level warm advection and, perhaps, forcing associated with the subtropical perturbation, may contribute to increasing thunderstorm development near/offshore of upper Texas into central Gulf coastal areas, prior to the inland advance of a destabilizing warm sector boundary layer. ...Gulf Coast... As the leading edge of the stronger mid-level cooling advances southeastward toward the northwestern Gulf coast/lower Mississippi Valley, it appears that it may maintain the band of convection and embedded thunderstorms, with some intensification possible as it encounters better low-level moisture and instability. At some point across east/southeast Texas into western Louisiana, it is possible that this activity could become capable of producing some hail and gusty surface winds. However, based on latest forecast soundings, this appears likely to remain largely rooted above a saturated moist adiabatic or more stable near surface layer, which may mitigate the severe weather potential. A window of opportunity may still exist for inland boundary-layer destabilization across the upper Texas coastal plain into southwestern Louisiana, where surface dew points may increase into the mid/upper 60s. Mixed-layer CAPE increasing up to 500-1000 J/kg appears possible, in the presence of lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection and strong deep-layer shear. Prior to the onset of mid-level subsidence, then a subsequent surface frontal passage, organized thunderstorm development, including supercells, may not be out of the question by late Monday afternoon. Monday afternoon into Monday night, much will probably hinge on the timing of the more rapid deepening of the primary surface cyclone, which might be needed to allow for a destabilizing Gulf boundary layer to advect inland across the northern Gulf coast. However, guidance continues to generally indicate that this may occur across at least portions of southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southwestern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle by late Monday night, if not earlier. If this occurs, it appears likely to coincide with intensifying wind fields and shear, including 50-70+ kt in the 850 mb layer, which could contribute to an environment conducive to organizing convection with a risk for damaging wind gusts and a couple of strong tornadoes. ..Kerr.. 01/07/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 PM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts and tornadoes, are possible across parts of southern Louisiana and southern Mississippi into southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle by late Monday night. ...Synopsis... As initially amplified mid/upper ridging, within the prevailing split flow across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific, is suppressed further by another vigorous short wave trough approaching the Pacific Northwest, a significant evolving downstream trough is forecast to turn east of the Rockies through this period. Models indicate that it will take on a more neutral tilt, and come in better phase with another perturbation within a belt of westerlies emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific, as it progresses across the southern Great Plains Monday night. However, considerable spread is evident among the various model output concerning the more specific details of this evolution, and associated cyclogenesis, particularly late Monday into Monday night. It still appears that at least modest surface cyclogenesis may be ongoing across the Texas Panhandle vicinity by late Monday morning, but there may be little further deepening through the day as it migrates east-northeastward across the southern Great Plains. A secondary frontal wave may form across and northeast of the upper Texas coastal plain late Monday afternoon and evening, but more rapid deepening of the primary surface cyclone may not commence across the Ozark Plateau/Mid South vicinity until the overnight hours. Low-level moisture return off a modifying boundary layer over the northern Gulf of Mexico may contribute to considerable cloud cover and at least light precipitation across and well inland of Gulf coastal areas through the day Monday. By early Monday, stronger mid-level cooling and forcing for ascent spreading east/southeast of the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle vicinity may already be contributing to a developing line of storms, rooted above a relative deep cold/stable surface-based layer. During the day, ascent driven by low-level warm advection and, perhaps, forcing associated with the subtropical perturbation, may contribute to increasing thunderstorm development near/offshore of upper Texas into central Gulf coastal areas, prior to the inland advance of a destabilizing warm sector boundary layer. ...Gulf Coast... As the leading edge of the stronger mid-level cooling advances southeastward toward the northwestern Gulf coast/lower Mississippi Valley, it appears that it may maintain the band of convection and embedded thunderstorms, with some intensification possible as it encounters better low-level moisture and instability. At some point across east/southeast Texas into western Louisiana, it is possible that this activity could become capable of producing some hail and gusty surface winds. However, based on latest forecast soundings, this appears likely to remain largely rooted above a saturated moist adiabatic or more stable near surface layer, which may mitigate the severe weather potential. A window of opportunity may still exist for inland boundary-layer destabilization across the upper Texas coastal plain into southwestern Louisiana, where surface dew points may increase into the mid/upper 60s. Mixed-layer CAPE increasing up to 500-1000 J/kg appears possible, in the presence of lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection and strong deep-layer shear. Prior to the onset of mid-level subsidence, then a subsequent surface frontal passage, organized thunderstorm development, including supercells, may not be out of the question by late Monday afternoon. Monday afternoon into Monday night, much will probably hinge on the timing of the more rapid deepening of the primary surface cyclone, which might be needed to allow for a destabilizing Gulf boundary layer to advect inland across the northern Gulf coast. However, guidance continues to generally indicate that this may occur across at least portions of southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southwestern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle by late Monday night, if not earlier. If this occurs, it appears likely to coincide with intensifying wind fields and shear, including 50-70+ kt in the 850 mb layer, which could contribute to an environment conducive to organizing convection with a risk for damaging wind gusts and a couple of strong tornadoes. ..Kerr.. 01/07/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 PM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts and tornadoes, are possible across parts of southern Louisiana and southern Mississippi into southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle by late Monday night. ...Synopsis... As initially amplified mid/upper ridging, within the prevailing split flow across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific, is suppressed further by another vigorous short wave trough approaching the Pacific Northwest, a significant evolving downstream trough is forecast to turn east of the Rockies through this period. Models indicate that it will take on a more neutral tilt, and come in better phase with another perturbation within a belt of westerlies emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific, as it progresses across the southern Great Plains Monday night. However, considerable spread is evident among the various model output concerning the more specific details of this evolution, and associated cyclogenesis, particularly late Monday into Monday night. It still appears that at least modest surface cyclogenesis may be ongoing across the Texas Panhandle vicinity by late Monday morning, but there may be little further deepening through the day as it migrates east-northeastward across the southern Great Plains. A secondary frontal wave may form across and northeast of the upper Texas coastal plain late Monday afternoon and evening, but more rapid deepening of the primary surface cyclone may not commence across the Ozark Plateau/Mid South vicinity until the overnight hours. Low-level moisture return off a modifying boundary layer over the northern Gulf of Mexico may contribute to considerable cloud cover and at least light precipitation across and well inland of Gulf coastal areas through the day Monday. By early Monday, stronger mid-level cooling and forcing for ascent spreading east/southeast of the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle vicinity may already be contributing to a developing line of storms, rooted above a relative deep cold/stable surface-based layer. During the day, ascent driven by low-level warm advection and, perhaps, forcing associated with the subtropical perturbation, may contribute to increasing thunderstorm development near/offshore of upper Texas into central Gulf coastal areas, prior to the inland advance of a destabilizing warm sector boundary layer. ...Gulf Coast... As the leading edge of the stronger mid-level cooling advances southeastward toward the northwestern Gulf coast/lower Mississippi Valley, it appears that it may maintain the band of convection and embedded thunderstorms, with some intensification possible as it encounters better low-level moisture and instability. At some point across east/southeast Texas into western Louisiana, it is possible that this activity could become capable of producing some hail and gusty surface winds. However, based on latest forecast soundings, this appears likely to remain largely rooted above a saturated moist adiabatic or more stable near surface layer, which may mitigate the severe weather potential. A window of opportunity may still exist for inland boundary-layer destabilization across the upper Texas coastal plain into southwestern Louisiana, where surface dew points may increase into the mid/upper 60s. Mixed-layer CAPE increasing up to 500-1000 J/kg appears possible, in the presence of lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection and strong deep-layer shear. Prior to the onset of mid-level subsidence, then a subsequent surface frontal passage, organized thunderstorm development, including supercells, may not be out of the question by late Monday afternoon. Monday afternoon into Monday night, much will probably hinge on the timing of the more rapid deepening of the primary surface cyclone, which might be needed to allow for a destabilizing Gulf boundary layer to advect inland across the northern Gulf coast. However, guidance continues to generally indicate that this may occur across at least portions of southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southwestern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle by late Monday night, if not earlier. If this occurs, it appears likely to coincide with intensifying wind fields and shear, including 50-70+ kt in the 850 mb layer, which could contribute to an environment conducive to organizing convection with a risk for damaging wind gusts and a couple of strong tornadoes. ..Kerr.. 01/07/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 PM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through early Monday morning. ...Discussion... A surface anticyclone over south-central TX will build east-northeast across the Deep South to the southern Appalachians through early Monday. This will aid in pushing the surface cold front across central FL southward across the remainder of the peninsula by about midday. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible later this morning prior to frontal passage. Weak tropospheric lapse rates, deep-layer flow paralleling the front, and minor mid-level height rises all suggest severe potential is negligible. On the backside of the building anticyclone, return flow from the western Gulf will strengthen through the period, as a vigorous shortwave trough amplifies over the Southwest with deepening lee cyclogenesis off the southern Rockies. Elevated thunderstorm potential will increase rapidly early Monday morning from northwest TX to KS as mid-level height falls overspread the pronounced low-level warm conveyor. Some CAM guidance suggests this elevated convection will be able to organize into a line near/just prior to 12Z from southwest OK to the TX Big Country, as a 100-kt 500-mb speed max begins to emerge through the base of the trough. The TX Big Country vicinity may see strong wind gusts accompanying the line owing to parcels rooted closer to the surface. ..Grams/Lyons.. 01/07/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 PM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through early Monday morning. ...Discussion... A surface anticyclone over south-central TX will build east-northeast across the Deep South to the southern Appalachians through early Monday. This will aid in pushing the surface cold front across central FL southward across the remainder of the peninsula by about midday. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible later this morning prior to frontal passage. Weak tropospheric lapse rates, deep-layer flow paralleling the front, and minor mid-level height rises all suggest severe potential is negligible. On the backside of the building anticyclone, return flow from the western Gulf will strengthen through the period, as a vigorous shortwave trough amplifies over the Southwest with deepening lee cyclogenesis off the southern Rockies. Elevated thunderstorm potential will increase rapidly early Monday morning from northwest TX to KS as mid-level height falls overspread the pronounced low-level warm conveyor. Some CAM guidance suggests this elevated convection will be able to organize into a line near/just prior to 12Z from southwest OK to the TX Big Country, as a 100-kt 500-mb speed max begins to emerge through the base of the trough. The TX Big Country vicinity may see strong wind gusts accompanying the line owing to parcels rooted closer to the surface. ..Grams/Lyons.. 01/07/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 PM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through early Monday morning. ...Discussion... A surface anticyclone over south-central TX will build east-northeast across the Deep South to the southern Appalachians through early Monday. This will aid in pushing the surface cold front across central FL southward across the remainder of the peninsula by about midday. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible later this morning prior to frontal passage. Weak tropospheric lapse rates, deep-layer flow paralleling the front, and minor mid-level height rises all suggest severe potential is negligible. On the backside of the building anticyclone, return flow from the western Gulf will strengthen through the period, as a vigorous shortwave trough amplifies over the Southwest with deepening lee cyclogenesis off the southern Rockies. Elevated thunderstorm potential will increase rapidly early Monday morning from northwest TX to KS as mid-level height falls overspread the pronounced low-level warm conveyor. Some CAM guidance suggests this elevated convection will be able to organize into a line near/just prior to 12Z from southwest OK to the TX Big Country, as a 100-kt 500-mb speed max begins to emerge through the base of the trough. The TX Big Country vicinity may see strong wind gusts accompanying the line owing to parcels rooted closer to the surface. ..Grams/Lyons.. 01/07/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 PM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through early Monday morning. ...Discussion... A surface anticyclone over south-central TX will build east-northeast across the Deep South to the southern Appalachians through early Monday. This will aid in pushing the surface cold front across central FL southward across the remainder of the peninsula by about midday. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible later this morning prior to frontal passage. Weak tropospheric lapse rates, deep-layer flow paralleling the front, and minor mid-level height rises all suggest severe potential is negligible. On the backside of the building anticyclone, return flow from the western Gulf will strengthen through the period, as a vigorous shortwave trough amplifies over the Southwest with deepening lee cyclogenesis off the southern Rockies. Elevated thunderstorm potential will increase rapidly early Monday morning from northwest TX to KS as mid-level height falls overspread the pronounced low-level warm conveyor. Some CAM guidance suggests this elevated convection will be able to organize into a line near/just prior to 12Z from southwest OK to the TX Big Country, as a 100-kt 500-mb speed max begins to emerge through the base of the trough. The TX Big Country vicinity may see strong wind gusts accompanying the line owing to parcels rooted closer to the surface. ..Grams/Lyons.. 01/07/2024 Read more View the full article

MD 0009 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND Mesoscale Discussion 0009 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0735 PM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Areas affected...portions of southern New England Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 070135Z - 070730Z SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snow will slowly increase in coverage across portions of southern New England this evening. Snowfall rates of 1-2 in/hr are possible within the heaviest band late this evening into the overnight hours. DISCUSSION...As of 0130 UTC, regional radar and surface analysis showed a broad area of stratiform precipitation ongoing across parts of the Mid Atlantic and southern New England. Associated with an approaching coastal low, periodic moderate to heavy snow/rain has been observed within this precipitation over the last several hours. Slow northeastward progression of the heaviest precip has been noted with the primary east-west oriented band stretching from east-central PA to Long Island Sound. Driven by strong low-level warm advection ahead of the deepening coastal low, moderate to heavy snow should slowly increase in coverage over portions of southern New England late this evening and into the overnight hours. Rates between 1 to 2 in/hour are possible within the primary band, though there remains some uncertainty on how quickly the heaviest snow will lift northward. Light snow has already been reported across parts of RI, MA and CT but, regional model soundings and observed ceilings above 4k feet suggest some low-level dry air remains in place. Inland moisture advection and the approach of the surface low should slowly cool and moisten the low-level thermodynamic profile sufficiently for higher snow rates after 03z. Periods of moderate to heavy snow will likely continue into the overnight hours. ..Lyons.. 01/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM... LAT...LON 41297318 41367356 41487386 41707418 41987436 42317449 42887446 43367362 43527277 43587212 43497158 43137085 43067073 42367073 42187068 41807105 41447191 41377230 41297275 41297318 Read more View the full article

MD 0008 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN PA...SOUTHERN NY...NORTHERN NJ Mesoscale Discussion 0008 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 PM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Areas affected...Central/Eastern PA...Southern NY...Northern NJ Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 062127Z - 070230Z SUMMARY...Snowfall rates around 1"/hr appear probable across this region, with some potential for 2"/hr rates, DISCUSSION...A shortwave trough continues to progress quickly northeastward across WV and VA. A broad precipitation field covers much of the northern Mid-Atlantic states as well as NY, supported by moderate to strong low-level warm advection ahead of the wave. Occasionally heavy snow has been noted across the region over the past few hours, particularly across western and southern PA, where the low-level warm advection/frontogenesis is being augmented by large-scale forcing for ascent near the shortwave trough. This general trend is expected to continue over the next several hours, with heavy snow shifting from western/central PA into western/southern NY. Snowfall rates around 1"/hr appear probable across this region, with some potential for 2"/hr rates, particularly just north of the leading edge of the mid-level dry air. ..Mosier.. 01/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP... LAT...LON 40047754 41157827 41587893 42637815 43097628 42547458 41407392 40157503 39827595 40047754 Read more View the full article

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0647 PM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through early Sunday. ...Discussion... Severe potential has waned since peaking a couple hours ago when a brief tornado was reported near FLL. Deep convection persists from the Dry Tortugas to the south tip of the peninsula but should further decay over the next few hours as weak outflow has become nearly parallel to the deep-layer shear vector. In addition, Key West VWP data has sampled decreasing low to mid-level flow over the past hour, further suggestive of severe potential becoming negligible. Elsewhere, thunder potential will be limited across much of the CONUS outside of the coastal OR vicinity. Here, scattered low-topped convection amid a cool but steep lapse rate environment may yield sporadic lightning flashes tonight. ..Grams.. 01/07/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0647 PM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through early Sunday. ...Discussion... Severe potential has waned since peaking a couple hours ago when a brief tornado was reported near FLL. Deep convection persists from the Dry Tortugas to the south tip of the peninsula but should further decay over the next few hours as weak outflow has become nearly parallel to the deep-layer shear vector. In addition, Key West VWP data has sampled decreasing low to mid-level flow over the past hour, further suggestive of severe potential becoming negligible. Elsewhere, thunder potential will be limited across much of the CONUS outside of the coastal OR vicinity. Here, scattered low-topped convection amid a cool but steep lapse rate environment may yield sporadic lightning flashes tonight. ..Grams.. 01/07/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0647 PM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through early Sunday. ...Discussion... Severe potential has waned since peaking a couple hours ago when a brief tornado was reported near FLL. Deep convection persists from the Dry Tortugas to the south tip of the peninsula but should further decay over the next few hours as weak outflow has become nearly parallel to the deep-layer shear vector. In addition, Key West VWP data has sampled decreasing low to mid-level flow over the past hour, further suggestive of severe potential becoming negligible. Elsewhere, thunder potential will be limited across much of the CONUS outside of the coastal OR vicinity. Here, scattered low-topped convection amid a cool but steep lapse rate environment may yield sporadic lightning flashes tonight. ..Grams.. 01/07/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0647 PM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through early Sunday. ...Discussion... Severe potential has waned since peaking a couple hours ago when a brief tornado was reported near FLL. Deep convection persists from the Dry Tortugas to the south tip of the peninsula but should further decay over the next few hours as weak outflow has become nearly parallel to the deep-layer shear vector. In addition, Key West VWP data has sampled decreasing low to mid-level flow over the past hour, further suggestive of severe potential becoming negligible. Elsewhere, thunder potential will be limited across much of the CONUS outside of the coastal OR vicinity. Here, scattered low-topped convection amid a cool but steep lapse rate environment may yield sporadic lightning flashes tonight. ..Grams.. 01/07/2024 Read more View the full article

MD 0008 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN PA...SOUTHERN NY...NORTHERN NJ Mesoscale Discussion 0008 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 PM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Areas affected...Central/Eastern PA...Southern NY...Northern NJ Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 062127Z - 070230Z SUMMARY...Snowfall rates around 1"/hr appear probable across this region, with some potential for 2"/hr rates, DISCUSSION...A shortwave trough continues to progress quickly northeastward across WV and VA. A broad precipitation field covers much of the northern Mid-Atlantic states as well as NY, supported by moderate to strong low-level warm advection ahead of the wave. Occasionally heavy snow has been noted across the region over the past few hours, particularly across western and southern PA, where the low-level warm advection/frontogenesis is being augmented by large-scale forcing for ascent near the shortwave trough. This general trend is expected to continue over the next several hours, with heavy snow shifting from western/central PA into western/southern NY. Snowfall rates around 1"/hr appear probable across this region, with some potential for 2"/hr rates, particularly just north of the leading edge of the mid-level dry air. ..Mosier.. 01/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP... LAT...LON 40047754 41157827 41587893 42637815 43097628 42547458 41407392 40157503 39827595 40047754 Read more View the full article

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z A progressive upper-level pattern is expected through next weekend. Shortwave troughs are forecast to move across the southern U.S. periodically. This pattern will favor cool/cold conditions across northern/central portions of the CONUS as well as a fairly broad swath of precipitation across most areas, particularly the West and Southeast/East. Repeated surface low development in the central/southern High Plains will drive periods of elevated to critical meteorological conditions in parts of these regions. Model guidance still shows a relative minimum in precipitation in the Trans-Pecos and adjacent parts of southern New Mexico. While local fire concerns could occur there, fuels would have to dry sufficiently in the coming days before greater/broader concerns would be possible. Critical fire weather potential remains low this period. ..Wendt.. 01/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z A progressive upper-level pattern is expected through next weekend. Shortwave troughs are forecast to move across the southern U.S. periodically. This pattern will favor cool/cold conditions across northern/central portions of the CONUS as well as a fairly broad swath of precipitation across most areas, particularly the West and Southeast/East. Repeated surface low development in the central/southern High Plains will drive periods of elevated to critical meteorological conditions in parts of these regions. Model guidance still shows a relative minimum in precipitation in the Trans-Pecos and adjacent parts of southern New Mexico. While local fire concerns could occur there, fuels would have to dry sufficiently in the coming days before greater/broader concerns would be possible. Critical fire weather potential remains low this period. ..Wendt.. 01/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z A progressive upper-level pattern is expected through next weekend. Shortwave troughs are forecast to move across the southern U.S. periodically. This pattern will favor cool/cold conditions across northern/central portions of the CONUS as well as a fairly broad swath of precipitation across most areas, particularly the West and Southeast/East. Repeated surface low development in the central/southern High Plains will drive periods of elevated to critical meteorological conditions in parts of these regions. Model guidance still shows a relative minimum in precipitation in the Trans-Pecos and adjacent parts of southern New Mexico. While local fire concerns could occur there, fuels would have to dry sufficiently in the coming days before greater/broader concerns would be possible. Critical fire weather potential remains low this period. ..Wendt.. 01/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

MD 0007 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTH FL Mesoscale Discussion 0007 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Areas affected...Parts of south FL Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 062054Z - 062300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Some threat for a tornado and/or locally damaging wind will persist through the remainder of the afternoon. DISCUSSION...Occasional low/midlevel rotation has been noted with storms moving across south FL this afternoon, most recently to the southwest of Palm Beach. Widespread cloudiness and weak midlevel lapse rates (as noted on the 18Z KEY sounding) continue to limit instability across the region, though rich moisture (with low 70s F dewpoints) is supporting MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, sufficient to sustain organized convection within a favorably sheared environment. While low-level flow is expected to gradually weaken and veer with time, 0-1 km SRH still in the 150-250 m2/s2 range (as noted in recent objective mesoanalyses and the KAMX VWP) will support the potential for a tornado or two across south FL through the remainder of the afternoon, if any supercells can be sustained. Some potential for locally damaging wind may also develop, especially where somewhat stronger heating has been noted this afternoon. With the threat expected to remain rather isolated and limited in areal extent, watch issuance is considered unlikely. ..Dean/Hart.. 01/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB... LAT...LON 25628137 26108122 26888039 26998015 26777999 26238003 25758014 25448030 25448085 25388113 25628137 Read more View the full article

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTH FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms may impact parts of the Florida Peninsula today, with a threat for isolated damaging winds and/or a tornado. A line of thunderstorms across southern Florida may continue to pose some threat for damaging wind gusts or a tornado or two through the afternoon and early evening before moving offshore. The greatest potential for isolated damaging wind gusts will likely be associated with the more progressive line segment oriented northeast to southwest. In addition, occasional low-level rotation has been observed with low-topped supercells ahead of this line. The AMX VWP shows a wind profile which should be sufficient for some tornado potential, but the lack of stronger forcing and more robust updraft development should mitigate the tornado threat. ..Bentley.. 01/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024/ ...South FL... Morning surface analysis shows a low over the western Carolinas, with a cold front extending southward across SC into north FL. Widespread showers and occasional thunderstorms are occurring ahead of the cold front over central/south FL, with several cells showing transient supercell and bowing structures southwest of Tampa Bay over the past 1-2 hours. The air mass ahead of these storms is quite moist with dewpoints in the lower 70s, but widespread clouds and precip immediately ahead of the cells is limiting destabilization. Shear profiles are strong, and therefore will maintain the SLGT risk for isolated tornadoes or damaging wind gusts over parts of south FL this afternoon. Refer to MCD #5 for further short-term details. ...NC Coast this afternoon... Model guidance continues to suggest that cyclogenesis will take place over central NC, with strengthening low-level shear values ahead of the associated cold front. Present indications are that a few strong storms may affect the near-shore waters along the NC coast, but greater moisture and surface-based instability is expected to remain offshore. Read more View the full article

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTH FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms may impact parts of the Florida Peninsula today, with a threat for isolated damaging winds and/or a tornado. A line of thunderstorms across southern Florida may continue to pose some threat for damaging wind gusts or a tornado or two through the afternoon and early evening before moving offshore. The greatest potential for isolated damaging wind gusts will likely be associated with the more progressive line segment oriented northeast to southwest. In addition, occasional low-level rotation has been observed with low-topped supercells ahead of this line. The AMX VWP shows a wind profile which should be sufficient for some tornado potential, but the lack of stronger forcing and more robust updraft development should mitigate the tornado threat. ..Bentley.. 01/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024/ ...South FL... Morning surface analysis shows a low over the western Carolinas, with a cold front extending southward across SC into north FL. Widespread showers and occasional thunderstorms are occurring ahead of the cold front over central/south FL, with several cells showing transient supercell and bowing structures southwest of Tampa Bay over the past 1-2 hours. The air mass ahead of these storms is quite moist with dewpoints in the lower 70s, but widespread clouds and precip immediately ahead of the cells is limiting destabilization. Shear profiles are strong, and therefore will maintain the SLGT risk for isolated tornadoes or damaging wind gusts over parts of south FL this afternoon. Refer to MCD #5 for further short-term details. ...NC Coast this afternoon... Model guidance continues to suggest that cyclogenesis will take place over central NC, with strengthening low-level shear values ahead of the associated cold front. Present indications are that a few strong storms may affect the near-shore waters along the NC coast, but greater moisture and surface-based instability is expected to remain offshore. Read more View the full article

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTH FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms may impact parts of the Florida Peninsula today, with a threat for isolated damaging winds and/or a tornado. A line of thunderstorms across southern Florida may continue to pose some threat for damaging wind gusts or a tornado or two through the afternoon and early evening before moving offshore. The greatest potential for isolated damaging wind gusts will likely be associated with the more progressive line segment oriented northeast to southwest. In addition, occasional low-level rotation has been observed with low-topped supercells ahead of this line. The AMX VWP shows a wind profile which should be sufficient for some tornado potential, but the lack of stronger forcing and more robust updraft development should mitigate the tornado threat. ..Bentley.. 01/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024/ ...South FL... Morning surface analysis shows a low over the western Carolinas, with a cold front extending southward across SC into north FL. Widespread showers and occasional thunderstorms are occurring ahead of the cold front over central/south FL, with several cells showing transient supercell and bowing structures southwest of Tampa Bay over the past 1-2 hours. The air mass ahead of these storms is quite moist with dewpoints in the lower 70s, but widespread clouds and precip immediately ahead of the cells is limiting destabilization. Shear profiles are strong, and therefore will maintain the SLGT risk for isolated tornadoes or damaging wind gusts over parts of south FL this afternoon. Refer to MCD #5 for further short-term details. ...NC Coast this afternoon... Model guidance continues to suggest that cyclogenesis will take place over central NC, with strengthening low-level shear values ahead of the associated cold front. Present indications are that a few strong storms may affect the near-shore waters along the NC coast, but greater moisture and surface-based instability is expected to remain offshore. Read more View the full article