NorthGeorgiaWX

WW 0720 Status Updates STATUS REPORT ON WW 720 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W CTY TO 35 NNW CTY TO 15 E VLD. ..SQUITIERI..12/10/23 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 720 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC001-003-007-017-023-029-041-047-067-075-083-121-125-101940- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALACHUA BAKER BRADFORD CITRUS COLUMBIA DIXIE GILCHRIST HAMILTON LAFAYETTE LEVY MARION SUWANNEE UNION GMZ765-850-101940- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more View the full article

MD 2325 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA INTO FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL VIRGINIA Mesoscale Discussion 2325 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Areas affected...Portions of central North Carolina into far south-central Virginia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 101736Z - 101930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Severe risk is evolving over portions of central North Carolina into far south-central Virginia this afternoon. Brief tornadoes and/or damaging gusts are the main concern. DISCUSSION...A loosely organized cluster of storms has been evolving northward along a weak north/south-oriented baroclinic zone draped across parts of central NC during the last couple hours. This storm cluster has shown signs of transient midlevel updraft rotation/supercell characteristics, and recent low-level updraft intensification. While instability is fairly limited, continued warming/moistening of the inflow for this activity is expected during the next few hours. Additionally, the RAX VWP depicts strong low-level shear, characterized by 30 kt of 0-1 km bulk shear and ample streamwise vorticity for an east-northeastward-moving storm. Low-level shear will also continue strengthening amid a strengthening low-level jet. While the tornado risk may remain localized (especially near the baroclinic zone) in the short-term, the tornado/damaging wind risk should increase across the area with time. Farther east toward the coast, the severe risk should also gradually increase with time this afternoon, and this area is being monitored as well. ..Weinman/Guyer.. 12/10/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM... LAT...LON 35387997 35697973 36037924 36477871 36637840 36657809 36637787 36587750 36337729 35977729 35567750 35227804 34937866 34927922 35127982 35387997 Read more View the full article

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough along the East Coast Monday morning will shift east as a deeper northern stream feature moves across New England. Meanwhile, another upper trough will move southeast from the Canadian Prairies and into the upper MS Valley late. At the surface, low pressure will deepen as it moves from Maine into New Brunswick, with southern portions of the front over the Bahamas. The resulting cool and stable air mass behind the cold front will preclude thunderstorm chances across the CONUS. ..Jewell.. 12/10/2023 Read more View the full article

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough along the East Coast Monday morning will shift east as a deeper northern stream feature moves across New England. Meanwhile, another upper trough will move southeast from the Canadian Prairies and into the upper MS Valley late. At the surface, low pressure will deepen as it moves from Maine into New Brunswick, with southern portions of the front over the Bahamas. The resulting cool and stable air mass behind the cold front will preclude thunderstorm chances across the CONUS. ..Jewell.. 12/10/2023 Read more View the full article

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough along the East Coast Monday morning will shift east as a deeper northern stream feature moves across New England. Meanwhile, another upper trough will move southeast from the Canadian Prairies and into the upper MS Valley late. At the surface, low pressure will deepen as it moves from Maine into New Brunswick, with southern portions of the front over the Bahamas. The resulting cool and stable air mass behind the cold front will preclude thunderstorm chances across the CONUS. ..Jewell.. 12/10/2023 Read more View the full article

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough along the East Coast Monday morning will shift east as a deeper northern stream feature moves across New England. Meanwhile, another upper trough will move southeast from the Canadian Prairies and into the upper MS Valley late. At the surface, low pressure will deepen as it moves from Maine into New Brunswick, with southern portions of the front over the Bahamas. The resulting cool and stable air mass behind the cold front will preclude thunderstorm chances across the CONUS. ..Jewell.. 12/10/2023 Read more View the full article

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z The previous forecast remains on track. Recent surface observations from the southern CA coastal mountains continue to sample 25-40 mph gusts with RH ranging from the single digits to low 20s. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions will persist through the early to mid afternoon hours. Across the southern High Plains, modest surface pressure falls are noted with winds beginning to strengthen to around 15 mph. Latest ensemble guidance continues to suggest areas of elevated conditions are possible, but fuel status remains marginal per recent fuel reports. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 12/10/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0103 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023/ ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough will continue to dig through the Southeast and into part of the Mid-Atlantic today. Surface high pressure will remain strong in the West, though this feature should weaken through the day. ...Southern California... At least moderately strong offshore winds appear probable early this morning. While some RH recovery may occur overnight Saturday, RH of 15-20% can be reasonably expected across most areas with some lower values possible locally. Winds in the lower elevations, where fuels are driest, will be 15-25 mph. These winds will slowly diminish into the early afternoon. Elevated fire weather concerns are possible for a few hours. ...Southern High Plains... A weak lee trough is forecast to develop during the afternoon. This may promote 15-20 mph winds from eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle/South Plains. Fire weather concerns will likely remain low due to RH generally remaining above critical thresholds and fine fuels only being modestly dry. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z The previous forecast remains on track. Recent surface observations from the southern CA coastal mountains continue to sample 25-40 mph gusts with RH ranging from the single digits to low 20s. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions will persist through the early to mid afternoon hours. Across the southern High Plains, modest surface pressure falls are noted with winds beginning to strengthen to around 15 mph. Latest ensemble guidance continues to suggest areas of elevated conditions are possible, but fuel status remains marginal per recent fuel reports. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 12/10/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0103 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023/ ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough will continue to dig through the Southeast and into part of the Mid-Atlantic today. Surface high pressure will remain strong in the West, though this feature should weaken through the day. ...Southern California... At least moderately strong offshore winds appear probable early this morning. While some RH recovery may occur overnight Saturday, RH of 15-20% can be reasonably expected across most areas with some lower values possible locally. Winds in the lower elevations, where fuels are driest, will be 15-25 mph. These winds will slowly diminish into the early afternoon. Elevated fire weather concerns are possible for a few hours. ...Southern High Plains... A weak lee trough is forecast to develop during the afternoon. This may promote 15-20 mph winds from eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle/South Plains. Fire weather concerns will likely remain low due to RH generally remaining above critical thresholds and fine fuels only being modestly dry. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN FL/SOUTHERN GA AND THE CAROLINAS/EASTERN VA... ...SUMMARY... Damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible over portions of the eastern Carolinas and southeastern Virginia, as well as portions of northern Florida and far southern Georgia. ...Northern/central Florida into southeast Georgia... A quasi-linear band of strong to occasionally severe storms has persisted into midday from the northeast Gulf of Mexico into northern Florida and far southern Georgia. Destabilization will likely remain muted particularly with northern extent into/across southern Georgia, but some cloud breaks with somewhat stronger heating is occurring across the central into northern Florida Peninsula. Short-term guidance advertises a restrengthening of southwesterly winds in the lowest 2-3 km AGL through the afternoon, which will allow a continuance of well-organized/mostly quasi-linear storm structures capable of a tornado and localized wind damage risk where modest destabilization occurs inland. See Mesoscale Discussion 2324 for additional short-term details. ...Carolinas/eastern Virginia... Although cloud cover remains prevalent through late morning, low-level moistening continues to occur with increasingly prevalent middle 60s F surface dewpoints near/east of the front near and parallel to the spine of the Appalachians at midday. Modest diurnal destabilization combined with strong deep-layer/low-level shear will support an increasing potential, at least on an isolated basis, for some severe storms through the afternoon. This would potentially include a few semi-discrete supercells/line segments capable of wind damage and a tornado risk, which could peak into late afternoon and persist through the evening given an advertised increase in low-level flow, prior to the front clearing the coast late tonight. ..Guyer/Weinman.. 12/10/2023 Read more View the full article

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN FL/SOUTHERN GA AND THE CAROLINAS/EASTERN VA... ...SUMMARY... Damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible over portions of the eastern Carolinas and southeastern Virginia, as well as portions of northern Florida and far southern Georgia. ...Northern/central Florida into southeast Georgia... A quasi-linear band of strong to occasionally severe storms has persisted into midday from the northeast Gulf of Mexico into northern Florida and far southern Georgia. Destabilization will likely remain muted particularly with northern extent into/across southern Georgia, but some cloud breaks with somewhat stronger heating is occurring across the central into northern Florida Peninsula. Short-term guidance advertises a restrengthening of southwesterly winds in the lowest 2-3 km AGL through the afternoon, which will allow a continuance of well-organized/mostly quasi-linear storm structures capable of a tornado and localized wind damage risk where modest destabilization occurs inland. See Mesoscale Discussion 2324 for additional short-term details. ...Carolinas/eastern Virginia... Although cloud cover remains prevalent through late morning, low-level moistening continues to occur with increasingly prevalent middle 60s F surface dewpoints near/east of the front near and parallel to the spine of the Appalachians at midday. Modest diurnal destabilization combined with strong deep-layer/low-level shear will support an increasing potential, at least on an isolated basis, for some severe storms through the afternoon. This would potentially include a few semi-discrete supercells/line segments capable of wind damage and a tornado risk, which could peak into late afternoon and persist through the evening given an advertised increase in low-level flow, prior to the front clearing the coast late tonight. ..Guyer/Weinman.. 12/10/2023 Read more View the full article

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN FL/SOUTHERN GA AND THE CAROLINAS/EASTERN VA... ...SUMMARY... Damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible over portions of the eastern Carolinas and southeastern Virginia, as well as portions of northern Florida and far southern Georgia. ...Northern/central Florida into southeast Georgia... A quasi-linear band of strong to occasionally severe storms has persisted into midday from the northeast Gulf of Mexico into northern Florida and far southern Georgia. Destabilization will likely remain muted particularly with northern extent into/across southern Georgia, but some cloud breaks with somewhat stronger heating is occurring across the central into northern Florida Peninsula. Short-term guidance advertises a restrengthening of southwesterly winds in the lowest 2-3 km AGL through the afternoon, which will allow a continuance of well-organized/mostly quasi-linear storm structures capable of a tornado and localized wind damage risk where modest destabilization occurs inland. See Mesoscale Discussion 2324 for additional short-term details. ...Carolinas/eastern Virginia... Although cloud cover remains prevalent through late morning, low-level moistening continues to occur with increasingly prevalent middle 60s F surface dewpoints near/east of the front near and parallel to the spine of the Appalachians at midday. Modest diurnal destabilization combined with strong deep-layer/low-level shear will support an increasing potential, at least on an isolated basis, for some severe storms through the afternoon. This would potentially include a few semi-discrete supercells/line segments capable of wind damage and a tornado risk, which could peak into late afternoon and persist through the evening given an advertised increase in low-level flow, prior to the front clearing the coast late tonight. ..Guyer/Weinman.. 12/10/2023 Read more View the full article

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN FL/SOUTHERN GA AND THE CAROLINAS/EASTERN VA... ...SUMMARY... Damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible over portions of the eastern Carolinas and southeastern Virginia, as well as portions of northern Florida and far southern Georgia. ...Northern/central Florida into southeast Georgia... A quasi-linear band of strong to occasionally severe storms has persisted into midday from the northeast Gulf of Mexico into northern Florida and far southern Georgia. Destabilization will likely remain muted particularly with northern extent into/across southern Georgia, but some cloud breaks with somewhat stronger heating is occurring across the central into northern Florida Peninsula. Short-term guidance advertises a restrengthening of southwesterly winds in the lowest 2-3 km AGL through the afternoon, which will allow a continuance of well-organized/mostly quasi-linear storm structures capable of a tornado and localized wind damage risk where modest destabilization occurs inland. See Mesoscale Discussion 2324 for additional short-term details. ...Carolinas/eastern Virginia... Although cloud cover remains prevalent through late morning, low-level moistening continues to occur with increasingly prevalent middle 60s F surface dewpoints near/east of the front near and parallel to the spine of the Appalachians at midday. Modest diurnal destabilization combined with strong deep-layer/low-level shear will support an increasing potential, at least on an isolated basis, for some severe storms through the afternoon. This would potentially include a few semi-discrete supercells/line segments capable of wind damage and a tornado risk, which could peak into late afternoon and persist through the evening given an advertised increase in low-level flow, prior to the front clearing the coast late tonight. ..Guyer/Weinman.. 12/10/2023 Read more View the full article

Severe Weather Statement issued December 10 at 11:26AM EST by NWSView the full article

WW 0720 Status Updates STATUS FOR WATCH 0720 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more View the full article

WW 0720 Status Updates STATUS FOR WATCH 0720 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more View the full article

WW 720 TORNADO FL CW 101615Z - 102200Z URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 720 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northern Florida Coastal Waters * Effective this Sunday morning and afternoon from 1115 AM until 500 PM EST. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible SUMMARY...Severe storms with a damaging wind and tornado risk, at least on an isolated basis, are expected to continue across parts of northern Florida through the afternoon. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 70 miles north of Cross City FL to 45 miles west southwest of Ocala FL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25030. ...Guyer Read more View the full article

WW 720 TORNADO FL CW 101615Z - 102200Z URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 720 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northern Florida Coastal Waters * Effective this Sunday morning and afternoon from 1115 AM until 500 PM EST. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible SUMMARY...Severe storms with a damaging wind and tornado risk, at least on an isolated basis, are expected to continue across parts of northern Florida through the afternoon. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 70 miles north of Cross City FL to 45 miles west southwest of Ocala FL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25030. ...Guyer Read more View the full article

Special Weather Statement issued December 10 at 11:13AM EST by NWSView the full article

Severe Weather Statement issued December 10 at 10:46AM EST until December 10 at 11:00AM EST by NWSView the full article

Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued December 10 at 10:46AM EST until December 10 at 11:15AM EST by NWSView the full article

Severe Weather Statement issued December 10 at 10:46AM EST until December 10 at 11:15AM EST by NWSView the full article

MD 2324 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EXTREME SOUTH GA INTO NORTH FL Mesoscale Discussion 2324 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0940 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Areas affected...Extreme south GA into north FL Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 101540Z - 101745Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Some threat for a brief tornado and/or locally damaging wind may persist through late morning, with an increasing threat possible across parts of the northern Florida Peninsula by early afternoon. DISCUSSION...A QLCS is moving across south GA into the eastern FL Panhandle this morning, with a possible brief tornado recently noted near the FL/GA border, near where a supercell was earlier absorbed into the line. In the short term, this QLCS will be moving eastward into an increasingly stable low-level environment, and some weakening appears likely. However, relatively favorable low-level and deep-layer shear (as noted on the 12Z TLH sounding and recent VWPs from KVAX) amid seasonably rich low-level moisture may continue to support a threat for a brief tornado and/or locally damaging wind until/unless a more definitive weakening trend commences. Some heating has been noted across northern portions of the FL Peninsula, and somewhat more substantial destabilization is possible by early afternoon in this area. Also, some increase in low-level flow is possible with time, due to the increasing influence of an approaching mid/upper-level shortwave trough currently near the upper TX coast. This could result in some rejuvenation of the QLCS near the FL coastal bend into the northwest peninsula, with a continued threat of a brief tornado or two and locally damaging wind. The need for a new watch this morning remains uncertain, due to the anticipated short-term weakening trend, but watch issuance will be possible by early afternoon into parts of the northern FL Panhandle, depending on short-term convective and destabilization trends. ..Dean/Guyer.. 12/10/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE... LAT...LON 31008392 30968348 30948313 30288268 29888260 29458273 29298289 29288304 29388357 29548389 29618419 29688467 29708478 30188463 31008392 Read more View the full article

Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued December 10 at 10:29AM EST until December 10 at 12:00PM EST by NWSView the full article

Tornado Warning issued December 10 at 10:16AM EST until December 10 at 10:45AM EST by NWSView the full article

Severe Weather Statement issued December 10 at 10:16AM EST until December 10 at 11:00AM EST by NWSView the full article