NorthGeorgiaWX

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...GULF COAST...TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, damaging thunderstorm wind gusts, and isolated severe hail are possible today and tonight from portions of the Ohio Valley southward to the Lower Mississippi Valley and middle Gulf Coast. ...Gulf Coast/Lower Mississippi Valley/Tennessee Valley... Region is being increasingly influenced by height falls but otherwise resides between larger scale influences of an upper trough over the Upper Midwest and a positive-tilt trough over the southern High Plains. Increasing warm-sector moisture (generally lower to some middle 60s F surface dewpoints) ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front, along with considerable deep-layer/low-level shear, will be favorable factors for a long-duration severe risk through the afternoon into tonight. However, the likelihood of a complex/mixed quasi-linear convective mode casts uncertainty regarding the magnitude of the severe risk, particularly regarding a supercell-related sustained/focused tornado risk. It is also noted that some guidance suggests that 1-3km AGL winds may somewhat weaken by late afternoon/early evening within the warm sector, while noting SRH will still remain favorable for rotating/severe storms. Storms should continue to increase in coverage through early afternoon, initially near the front across Arkansas northeastward into western portions of Tennessee/Kentucky. Sufficiently steep mid-level lapse rates will support some hail potential, especially the first part of the day, but the tendency for storm clustering will otherwise limit this overall potential, as well as limiting prospects for more consequential hail magnitudes. As the boundary layer warms this afternoon, the potential for initially semi-discrete supercells will increase along with related damaging wind risk as well as tornado potential, which will persist through the afternoon/evening even with a quasi-linear convective mode. As warm-sector inhibition further weakens later this afternoon, additional deepening convection may develop within weak pre-frontal convergence/confluence regime, mainly across Mississippi into Alabama, with this development eventually merging with or taking over as the main convective band this evening. Similarly, pre-frontal confluence may support isolated supercellular development along the Gulf Coast/Florida Panhandle vicinity through late night hours/early Sunday, within a somewhat separate regime capable of a few severe storms. ..Guyer/Weinman.. 12/09/2023 Read more View the full article

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0644 AM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH AND DELTA REGIONS TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, damaging to severe thunderstorm gusts, and isolated severe hail are possible today and tonight from portions of the Ohio Valley southward to the central Gulf Coast. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, a positively tilted synoptic trough will amplify and proceed eastward across the central CONUS, predominantly in response to two accompanying shortwave troughs: 1. A northern-stream perturbation -- initially manifest as a closed cyclone over MN with trough southwestward over NE. This feature will devolve to an open wave across WI tonight, before reaching Lower MI and Lake Huron around 12Z tomorrow. 2. An elongated vorticity banner and speed max over the Four Corners States, which should reorient into a positively tilted trough by 00Z from southeastern KS across southwestern OK to southeastern NM. In doing so, it may absorb the southern portion of the northern-stream trough's vorticity field. By 12Z tomorrow, the reconfigured perturbation should extend from southern IL across central AR to south-central TX. The 11Z surface analysis showed a weakening, occluded low near HIB, with occluded front southeastward to a triple-point low near MKE. A cold front was drawn from there southwestward over the Ozarks to north-central TX and the Trans-Pecos region of west TX. By 00Z, the triple-point low will deepen into the dominant surface cyclone and eject northeastward to that portion of ON northeast of Lake Superior. The cold front should extend across central portions of OH/KY, southwestward over northern parts of MS/LA, to the middle TX Coast and deep south TX. The front should reach northern NY, central PA, WV, the TRI area, northern GA, southern AL, and the west-central Gulf by 12Z. ...Gulf Coast to Ohio Valley... Bands of scattered to locally numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the cold front, perhaps as early as midday in northwestern areas of the outlook, but mainly from this afternoon through overnight hours. As activity sweeps eastward to northeastward over the region, damaging to severe gusts, sporadic hail near severe limits, and a few tornadoes are all possible. The tornado and wind threats should be relatively maximized from the Mid-South to Tennessee Valley region, given that area's probable overlap between the most favorable parameter space and thunderstorm probability. However, concerns over storm morphology -- particularly potential for messy/embedded convective modes and short duration of favorably mature supercell/mesocyclone production -- remain large. This notion is supported by the presence of short, low- to medium-magnitude UH tracks in the preponderance of CAM guidance. This does not preclude the possibility of a significant or longer-lived tornado threat locally, but makes it too conditional and uncertainly focused for a specific, greater-potential outlook area at this point. Deep shear and hodograph size will strengthen northward, with around 200-300 J/kg effective SRH being fairly common over the warm sector prior to arrival of the main frontal/ prefrontal band. With CINH being weak, additional convection may develop atop weak convergence zones in the nearby warm sector as well, especially over parts of northern AL and mid TN from late afternoon into evening, before either merging with or taking over as the main convective band. Forecast soundings show modest low/middle-level lapse rates beneath abundant cloud cover, with warm/theta-e advection contributing at least as much to surface destabilization as diurnal/diabatic warming. Surface dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s F near the coast to the 50s in the Ohio Valley (with temperatures not much warmer) will lead to a gently northward-diminishing buoyancy gradient. MLCAPE should range from around 1500-2000 J/kg over central/southern parts of the Delta region (where lift and shear will be weaker) to 500-800 J/kg over the Ohio Valley, in a prefrontal plume that narrows and has shorter duration with northward/inland extent. The eastern rim of the favorable surface-based buoyancy will shift across AL and into parts of GA, the FL Panhandle, eastern TN and perhaps western Carolinas overnight, supporting an eastward extension of marginal severe potential and more overlap with the start of the day-2 outlook area. ..Edwards/Gleason.. 12/09/2023 Read more View the full article

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0644 AM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH AND DELTA REGIONS TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, damaging to severe thunderstorm gusts, and isolated severe hail are possible today and tonight from portions of the Ohio Valley southward to the central Gulf Coast. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, a positively tilted synoptic trough will amplify and proceed eastward across the central CONUS, predominantly in response to two accompanying shortwave troughs: 1. A northern-stream perturbation -- initially manifest as a closed cyclone over MN with trough southwestward over NE. This feature will devolve to an open wave across WI tonight, before reaching Lower MI and Lake Huron around 12Z tomorrow. 2. An elongated vorticity banner and speed max over the Four Corners States, which should reorient into a positively tilted trough by 00Z from southeastern KS across southwestern OK to southeastern NM. In doing so, it may absorb the southern portion of the northern-stream trough's vorticity field. By 12Z tomorrow, the reconfigured perturbation should extend from southern IL across central AR to south-central TX. The 11Z surface analysis showed a weakening, occluded low near HIB, with occluded front southeastward to a triple-point low near MKE. A cold front was drawn from there southwestward over the Ozarks to north-central TX and the Trans-Pecos region of west TX. By 00Z, the triple-point low will deepen into the dominant surface cyclone and eject northeastward to that portion of ON northeast of Lake Superior. The cold front should extend across central portions of OH/KY, southwestward over northern parts of MS/LA, to the middle TX Coast and deep south TX. The front should reach northern NY, central PA, WV, the TRI area, northern GA, southern AL, and the west-central Gulf by 12Z. ...Gulf Coast to Ohio Valley... Bands of scattered to locally numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the cold front, perhaps as early as midday in northwestern areas of the outlook, but mainly from this afternoon through overnight hours. As activity sweeps eastward to northeastward over the region, damaging to severe gusts, sporadic hail near severe limits, and a few tornadoes are all possible. The tornado and wind threats should be relatively maximized from the Mid-South to Tennessee Valley region, given that area's probable overlap between the most favorable parameter space and thunderstorm probability. However, concerns over storm morphology -- particularly potential for messy/embedded convective modes and short duration of favorably mature supercell/mesocyclone production -- remain large. This notion is supported by the presence of short, low- to medium-magnitude UH tracks in the preponderance of CAM guidance. This does not preclude the possibility of a significant or longer-lived tornado threat locally, but makes it too conditional and uncertainly focused for a specific, greater-potential outlook area at this point. Deep shear and hodograph size will strengthen northward, with around 200-300 J/kg effective SRH being fairly common over the warm sector prior to arrival of the main frontal/ prefrontal band. With CINH being weak, additional convection may develop atop weak convergence zones in the nearby warm sector as well, especially over parts of northern AL and mid TN from late afternoon into evening, before either merging with or taking over as the main convective band. Forecast soundings show modest low/middle-level lapse rates beneath abundant cloud cover, with warm/theta-e advection contributing at least as much to surface destabilization as diurnal/diabatic warming. Surface dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s F near the coast to the 50s in the Ohio Valley (with temperatures not much warmer) will lead to a gently northward-diminishing buoyancy gradient. MLCAPE should range from around 1500-2000 J/kg over central/southern parts of the Delta region (where lift and shear will be weaker) to 500-800 J/kg over the Ohio Valley, in a prefrontal plume that narrows and has shorter duration with northward/inland extent. The eastern rim of the favorable surface-based buoyancy will shift across AL and into parts of GA, the FL Panhandle, eastern TN and perhaps western Carolinas overnight, supporting an eastward extension of marginal severe potential and more overlap with the start of the day-2 outlook area. ..Edwards/Gleason.. 12/09/2023 Read more View the full article

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0644 AM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH AND DELTA REGIONS TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, damaging to severe thunderstorm gusts, and isolated severe hail are possible today and tonight from portions of the Ohio Valley southward to the central Gulf Coast. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, a positively tilted synoptic trough will amplify and proceed eastward across the central CONUS, predominantly in response to two accompanying shortwave troughs: 1. A northern-stream perturbation -- initially manifest as a closed cyclone over MN with trough southwestward over NE. This feature will devolve to an open wave across WI tonight, before reaching Lower MI and Lake Huron around 12Z tomorrow. 2. An elongated vorticity banner and speed max over the Four Corners States, which should reorient into a positively tilted trough by 00Z from southeastern KS across southwestern OK to southeastern NM. In doing so, it may absorb the southern portion of the northern-stream trough's vorticity field. By 12Z tomorrow, the reconfigured perturbation should extend from southern IL across central AR to south-central TX. The 11Z surface analysis showed a weakening, occluded low near HIB, with occluded front southeastward to a triple-point low near MKE. A cold front was drawn from there southwestward over the Ozarks to north-central TX and the Trans-Pecos region of west TX. By 00Z, the triple-point low will deepen into the dominant surface cyclone and eject northeastward to that portion of ON northeast of Lake Superior. The cold front should extend across central portions of OH/KY, southwestward over northern parts of MS/LA, to the middle TX Coast and deep south TX. The front should reach northern NY, central PA, WV, the TRI area, northern GA, southern AL, and the west-central Gulf by 12Z. ...Gulf Coast to Ohio Valley... Bands of scattered to locally numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the cold front, perhaps as early as midday in northwestern areas of the outlook, but mainly from this afternoon through overnight hours. As activity sweeps eastward to northeastward over the region, damaging to severe gusts, sporadic hail near severe limits, and a few tornadoes are all possible. The tornado and wind threats should be relatively maximized from the Mid-South to Tennessee Valley region, given that area's probable overlap between the most favorable parameter space and thunderstorm probability. However, concerns over storm morphology -- particularly potential for messy/embedded convective modes and short duration of favorably mature supercell/mesocyclone production -- remain large. This notion is supported by the presence of short, low- to medium-magnitude UH tracks in the preponderance of CAM guidance. This does not preclude the possibility of a significant or longer-lived tornado threat locally, but makes it too conditional and uncertainly focused for a specific, greater-potential outlook area at this point. Deep shear and hodograph size will strengthen northward, with around 200-300 J/kg effective SRH being fairly common over the warm sector prior to arrival of the main frontal/ prefrontal band. With CINH being weak, additional convection may develop atop weak convergence zones in the nearby warm sector as well, especially over parts of northern AL and mid TN from late afternoon into evening, before either merging with or taking over as the main convective band. Forecast soundings show modest low/middle-level lapse rates beneath abundant cloud cover, with warm/theta-e advection contributing at least as much to surface destabilization as diurnal/diabatic warming. Surface dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s F near the coast to the 50s in the Ohio Valley (with temperatures not much warmer) will lead to a gently northward-diminishing buoyancy gradient. MLCAPE should range from around 1500-2000 J/kg over central/southern parts of the Delta region (where lift and shear will be weaker) to 500-800 J/kg over the Ohio Valley, in a prefrontal plume that narrows and has shorter duration with northward/inland extent. The eastern rim of the favorable surface-based buoyancy will shift across AL and into parts of GA, the FL Panhandle, eastern TN and perhaps western Carolinas overnight, supporting an eastward extension of marginal severe potential and more overlap with the start of the day-2 outlook area. ..Edwards/Gleason.. 12/09/2023 Read more View the full article

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0644 AM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH AND DELTA REGIONS TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, damaging to severe thunderstorm gusts, and isolated severe hail are possible today and tonight from portions of the Ohio Valley southward to the central Gulf Coast. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, a positively tilted synoptic trough will amplify and proceed eastward across the central CONUS, predominantly in response to two accompanying shortwave troughs: 1. A northern-stream perturbation -- initially manifest as a closed cyclone over MN with trough southwestward over NE. This feature will devolve to an open wave across WI tonight, before reaching Lower MI and Lake Huron around 12Z tomorrow. 2. An elongated vorticity banner and speed max over the Four Corners States, which should reorient into a positively tilted trough by 00Z from southeastern KS across southwestern OK to southeastern NM. In doing so, it may absorb the southern portion of the northern-stream trough's vorticity field. By 12Z tomorrow, the reconfigured perturbation should extend from southern IL across central AR to south-central TX. The 11Z surface analysis showed a weakening, occluded low near HIB, with occluded front southeastward to a triple-point low near MKE. A cold front was drawn from there southwestward over the Ozarks to north-central TX and the Trans-Pecos region of west TX. By 00Z, the triple-point low will deepen into the dominant surface cyclone and eject northeastward to that portion of ON northeast of Lake Superior. The cold front should extend across central portions of OH/KY, southwestward over northern parts of MS/LA, to the middle TX Coast and deep south TX. The front should reach northern NY, central PA, WV, the TRI area, northern GA, southern AL, and the west-central Gulf by 12Z. ...Gulf Coast to Ohio Valley... Bands of scattered to locally numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the cold front, perhaps as early as midday in northwestern areas of the outlook, but mainly from this afternoon through overnight hours. As activity sweeps eastward to northeastward over the region, damaging to severe gusts, sporadic hail near severe limits, and a few tornadoes are all possible. The tornado and wind threats should be relatively maximized from the Mid-South to Tennessee Valley region, given that area's probable overlap between the most favorable parameter space and thunderstorm probability. However, concerns over storm morphology -- particularly potential for messy/embedded convective modes and short duration of favorably mature supercell/mesocyclone production -- remain large. This notion is supported by the presence of short, low- to medium-magnitude UH tracks in the preponderance of CAM guidance. This does not preclude the possibility of a significant or longer-lived tornado threat locally, but makes it too conditional and uncertainly focused for a specific, greater-potential outlook area at this point. Deep shear and hodograph size will strengthen northward, with around 200-300 J/kg effective SRH being fairly common over the warm sector prior to arrival of the main frontal/ prefrontal band. With CINH being weak, additional convection may develop atop weak convergence zones in the nearby warm sector as well, especially over parts of northern AL and mid TN from late afternoon into evening, before either merging with or taking over as the main convective band. Forecast soundings show modest low/middle-level lapse rates beneath abundant cloud cover, with warm/theta-e advection contributing at least as much to surface destabilization as diurnal/diabatic warming. Surface dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s F near the coast to the 50s in the Ohio Valley (with temperatures not much warmer) will lead to a gently northward-diminishing buoyancy gradient. MLCAPE should range from around 1500-2000 J/kg over central/southern parts of the Delta region (where lift and shear will be weaker) to 500-800 J/kg over the Ohio Valley, in a prefrontal plume that narrows and has shorter duration with northward/inland extent. The eastern rim of the favorable surface-based buoyancy will shift across AL and into parts of GA, the FL Panhandle, eastern TN and perhaps western Carolinas overnight, supporting an eastward extension of marginal severe potential and more overlap with the start of the day-2 outlook area. ..Edwards/Gleason.. 12/09/2023 Read more View the full article

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 AM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential appears likely to remain negligible for several days in the wake of this weekend's cold front progressing across the Gulf Coast and the Atlantic Seaboard. Above-average agreement exists with the establishment of a surface anticyclone over the southern Appalachians vicinity on D3 into D4, and remaining anchored in this region through at least D7. This will yield predominant easterly surface winds over the Gulf and FL Peninsula, with gradual airmass modification. Next weekend, deterministic 00Z ECMWF, GFS, and CMC suggest potential for eastern Gulf or South Atlantic Coast cyclogenesis. This may occur in response to an upper low, that initially develops over the Southwest mid-week, being kicked east and subsequently amplifying towards the Deep South. Very large spread in timing and track, in addition to only a minority of ECMWF ensemble/GEFS members supporting such a scenario renders low confidence in predictability for the D8-10 time frame. Read more View the full article

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 AM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential appears likely to remain negligible for several days in the wake of this weekend's cold front progressing across the Gulf Coast and the Atlantic Seaboard. Above-average agreement exists with the establishment of a surface anticyclone over the southern Appalachians vicinity on D3 into D4, and remaining anchored in this region through at least D7. This will yield predominant easterly surface winds over the Gulf and FL Peninsula, with gradual airmass modification. Next weekend, deterministic 00Z ECMWF, GFS, and CMC suggest potential for eastern Gulf or South Atlantic Coast cyclogenesis. This may occur in response to an upper low, that initially develops over the Southwest mid-week, being kicked east and subsequently amplifying towards the Deep South. Very large spread in timing and track, in addition to only a minority of ECMWF ensemble/GEFS members supporting such a scenario renders low confidence in predictability for the D8-10 time frame. Read more View the full article

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm probabilities appear to be less than 10 percent on Monday. ...Discussion... Substantial cyclogenesis late D2 should persist into early D3 with the surface low tracking near the New England coast to the Canadian Maritimes. An extremely strong low-level jet ahead of the cyclone, increasing to around 100 kts at 850 mb, may advect sufficient western Atlantic moisture to yield minimal elevated buoyancy. Both 00Z NAM and ECMWF forecast soundings indicate MUCAPE may reach 100 J/kg across Cape Cod to Downeast ME on Monday morning, but this appears to be largely inadequate for charge separation given weak lapse rates above 500 mb. Still, very strong forcing for ascent might support a few lightning flashes within heavier convective elements embedded amid a broad swath of rain. Elsewhere across the CONUS, with the surface cold front expected to clear the south FL Peninsula just prior to 12Z Monday, thunderstorm potential will be negligible. ..Grams.. 12/09/2023 Read more View the full article

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FL PANHANDLE TO THE DELMARVA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible through Sunday evening across parts of the Southeast States, mainly in the form of sporadic damaging winds and a few brief tornadoes. ...Synopsis... An amplified, positive-tilt upper trough from ON to east TX at 12Z Sunday will take on a neutral to slight negative tilt as a basal shortwave impulse rapidly ejects across the Deep South to the Lower Mid-Atlantic States. Intense mid-level southerlies will become asymmetrically confined ahead of the trough by early morning Monday. Surface cyclogenesis will occur from the central/southern Appalachians across the Northeast into southern New England, with greater deepening during the latter half of the period. ...FL Panhandle to the Delmarva... Overall scenario appears similar to prior days with a broad swath of low-probability tornado and severe thunderstorm wind evident from Sunday morning to evening across the Southeast States. A mesoscale corridor of greater tornado/wind threat may be highlighted in later outlooks, seemingly within the eastern SC to southeast VA vicinity. A swath of showers and embedded thunderstorms will likely be ongoing 12Z Sunday from western/central VA to the FL Panhandle, within the warm conveyor ahead of a surface cold front steadily progressing eastward. Morning severe potential should generally be confined to the FL/GA portion of the risk area, where mid 60s surface dew points should be more common ahead of the early-day convection. Diurnal diabatic heating is still expected to be muted, with extensive low-level moistening and resultant cloudiness anticipated. Consensus of guidance still suggests that a separate low-level warm theta-e advection regime from the western Atlantic will aid in a secondary swath of convective development by late morning into the afternoon across the eastern Carolinas. A corridor of somewhat greater surface heating may occur between both regimes which could yield a mesoscale area of MLCAPE from 500-1000 J/kg. Otherwise, amid weak mid-level lapse rates, much of the region should hold with MLCAPE at or below 500 J/kg. Low-level hodographs will be more favorably enlarged from the Carolinas northward. Should this become coincident with greater than meager buoyancy, a level 2-SLGT risk may be warranted for Sunday afternoon. More prominent strengthening of low-level southerlies will occur on Sunday night as cyclogenesis intensifies. However, the thermodynamic environment may be mostly to completely overturned by this time frame, given widespread convection. Guidance varies substantially in whether scant to meager surface-based buoyancy can still linger ahead of the cold front, mainly across eastern NC. Should this occur, a brief tornado/damaging-wind threat may be sustained through late evening. ..Grams.. 12/09/2023 Read more View the full article

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FL PANHANDLE TO THE DELMARVA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible through Sunday evening across parts of the Southeast States, mainly in the form of sporadic damaging winds and a few brief tornadoes. ...Synopsis... An amplified, positive-tilt upper trough from ON to east TX at 12Z Sunday will take on a neutral to slight negative tilt as a basal shortwave impulse rapidly ejects across the Deep South to the Lower Mid-Atlantic States. Intense mid-level southerlies will become asymmetrically confined ahead of the trough by early morning Monday. Surface cyclogenesis will occur from the central/southern Appalachians across the Northeast into southern New England, with greater deepening during the latter half of the period. ...FL Panhandle to the Delmarva... Overall scenario appears similar to prior days with a broad swath of low-probability tornado and severe thunderstorm wind evident from Sunday morning to evening across the Southeast States. A mesoscale corridor of greater tornado/wind threat may be highlighted in later outlooks, seemingly within the eastern SC to southeast VA vicinity. A swath of showers and embedded thunderstorms will likely be ongoing 12Z Sunday from western/central VA to the FL Panhandle, within the warm conveyor ahead of a surface cold front steadily progressing eastward. Morning severe potential should generally be confined to the FL/GA portion of the risk area, where mid 60s surface dew points should be more common ahead of the early-day convection. Diurnal diabatic heating is still expected to be muted, with extensive low-level moistening and resultant cloudiness anticipated. Consensus of guidance still suggests that a separate low-level warm theta-e advection regime from the western Atlantic will aid in a secondary swath of convective development by late morning into the afternoon across the eastern Carolinas. A corridor of somewhat greater surface heating may occur between both regimes which could yield a mesoscale area of MLCAPE from 500-1000 J/kg. Otherwise, amid weak mid-level lapse rates, much of the region should hold with MLCAPE at or below 500 J/kg. Low-level hodographs will be more favorably enlarged from the Carolinas northward. Should this become coincident with greater than meager buoyancy, a level 2-SLGT risk may be warranted for Sunday afternoon. More prominent strengthening of low-level southerlies will occur on Sunday night as cyclogenesis intensifies. However, the thermodynamic environment may be mostly to completely overturned by this time frame, given widespread convection. Guidance varies substantially in whether scant to meager surface-based buoyancy can still linger ahead of the cold front, mainly across eastern NC. Should this occur, a brief tornado/damaging-wind threat may be sustained through late evening. ..Grams.. 12/09/2023 Read more View the full article

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CST Fri Dec 08 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, capable of producing a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and large hail, will be possible from the lower Mississippi Valley northeastward into the Tennessee Valley this afternoon and evening. Marginally severe storms could also develop in parts of the Ohio Valley and in the central Gulf Coast region. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Tennessee Valley/Ohio Valley... A positively-tilted mid-level trough and an associated belt of strong flow will move eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley today. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley as a moist air mass advects northward across the central Gulf Coast states and Tennessee Valley. Surface dewpoints are forecast to increase into the 60s F across northern Mississippi, northern Alabama and in the western half of Tennessee. During the day, elevated thunderstorms appear likely to develop on the northern edge of the moist air mass, with a cluster of storms moving east-northeastward across northern Arkansas and western Tennessee. This cluster may be associated with a marginal threat for hail and wind damage. To the south of this cluster, the airmass should become moderately unstable by early afternoon, with MLCAPE peaking in the 1500 to 1800 J/kg range, according to RAP forecast soundings. During the mid to late afternoon, thunderstorms are expected to initiate along and ahead of the front, with a gradual increase in storm coverage taking place across the region. The eastern edge of the mid-level jet will overspread the warm sector this afternoon, creating strong deep-layer shear favorable for severe storms. 0-6 km shear values are forecast to increase into the 50 to 60 knot range, suggesting supercells will be possible. Storm-relative helicity in the 200 to 300 m2/s2 range will support a tornado threat, especially with cells that remain discrete. Although a tornado threat is expected to develop over a broad area from far eastern Arkansas northeastward into middle Tennessee, the most focused tornado potential may be from northwest Alabama into southern Tennessee. In this area, the combination of low-level shear and instability is expected to become maximized during the late afternoon and early evening. In addition to supercells, multicell clusters and line segments will be likely. The stronger rotating storms and multicell line segments may be capable of damaging wind gusts. The large hail threat will likely be associated with the more widely scattered supercells that develop further west into parts of the lower Mississippi Valley, where mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steeper. The severe threat over the Tennessee Valley should persist into the mid to late evening as a line segment gradually develops ahead of the cold front. Further north into the Ohio Valley, instability is forecast remain weak in the afternoon and evening with RAP forecast soundings having MLCAPE peak in the 500 to 800 J/kg range. In spite of this, 0-6 km shear from 60 to 70 knots will support an isolated severe threat. Any potential for tornadoes, wind damage and hail is expected to remain isolated and marginal. ..Broyles/Wendt.. 12/09/2023 Read more View the full article

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CST Fri Dec 08 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, capable of producing a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and large hail, will be possible from the lower Mississippi Valley northeastward into the Tennessee Valley this afternoon and evening. Marginally severe storms could also develop in parts of the Ohio Valley and in the central Gulf Coast region. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Tennessee Valley/Ohio Valley... A positively-tilted mid-level trough and an associated belt of strong flow will move eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley today. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley as a moist air mass advects northward across the central Gulf Coast states and Tennessee Valley. Surface dewpoints are forecast to increase into the 60s F across northern Mississippi, northern Alabama and in the western half of Tennessee. During the day, elevated thunderstorms appear likely to develop on the northern edge of the moist air mass, with a cluster of storms moving east-northeastward across northern Arkansas and western Tennessee. This cluster may be associated with a marginal threat for hail and wind damage. To the south of this cluster, the airmass should become moderately unstable by early afternoon, with MLCAPE peaking in the 1500 to 1800 J/kg range, according to RAP forecast soundings. During the mid to late afternoon, thunderstorms are expected to initiate along and ahead of the front, with a gradual increase in storm coverage taking place across the region. The eastern edge of the mid-level jet will overspread the warm sector this afternoon, creating strong deep-layer shear favorable for severe storms. 0-6 km shear values are forecast to increase into the 50 to 60 knot range, suggesting supercells will be possible. Storm-relative helicity in the 200 to 300 m2/s2 range will support a tornado threat, especially with cells that remain discrete. Although a tornado threat is expected to develop over a broad area from far eastern Arkansas northeastward into middle Tennessee, the most focused tornado potential may be from northwest Alabama into southern Tennessee. In this area, the combination of low-level shear and instability is expected to become maximized during the late afternoon and early evening. In addition to supercells, multicell clusters and line segments will be likely. The stronger rotating storms and multicell line segments may be capable of damaging wind gusts. The large hail threat will likely be associated with the more widely scattered supercells that develop further west into parts of the lower Mississippi Valley, where mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steeper. The severe threat over the Tennessee Valley should persist into the mid to late evening as a line segment gradually develops ahead of the cold front. Further north into the Ohio Valley, instability is forecast remain weak in the afternoon and evening with RAP forecast soundings having MLCAPE peak in the 500 to 800 J/kg range. In spite of this, 0-6 km shear from 60 to 70 knots will support an isolated severe threat. Any potential for tornadoes, wind damage and hail is expected to remain isolated and marginal. ..Broyles/Wendt.. 12/09/2023 Read more View the full article

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 PM CST Fri Dec 08 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough will continue through the Southeast before lifting into the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday. The surface high in the West will move into the southern Plains and Gulf of Mexico. A belt of strong mid-level northwesterly winds will remain in the central Rockies. Modest lee troughing may occur in the southern/central High Plains as a result. ...Southern California... Offshore pressure gradients will continue to diminish. The strongest winds will again be early in the day. RH recovery during Saturday night may only be modest. Though some elevated fire weather may occur early in the period, diminishing coverage and intensity of winds, a slight offset of the lowest RH with the strongest winds, and winds becoming more confined to the terrain where fuels are less receptive should keep the bulk of fire weather concerns localized. ...Southern High Plains... As the surface high shifts east and a weak lee trough develops, some modestly dry and breezy conditions are possible in parts of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle/South Plains. With both winds and RH being marginal, fire weather concerns that exist should remain rather localized. ..Wendt.. 12/09/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CST Fri Dec 08 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will amplify as it moves into the Southeast today. This will push a cold front through the Plains to near the Appalachians. Surface high pressure will increase within the Great Basin and Four Corners regions. ...Southern California... Offshore winds will likely be maximized early this morning. Winds of 20-25 mph (with higher gusts) will overlap with at least marginally reduced RH. RH values will fall to near 10-15% in some locations by the afternoon. Winds will slowly lose some intensity with time, but should remain 15-20 mph for several hours. Lower elevation fuels will be the primary driver of fire spread. However, these fine fuels are only marginally dry at present. Elevated fire weather concerns are possible where these fuels are driest. ...Texas... Elevated fire weather is possible within part of the Permian Basin into the Edwards Plateau. Post-frontal winds will be 15-20 mph amid 15-20% RH. Locally lower RH could occur where a greater downsloping wind component exists. Fine fuels are marginally dry and will support a low-end threat for a large fire. Cold advection will tend to limit the fire weather threat, particularly farther north, as RH will likely remain above critical thresholds in those areas. ..Wendt.. 12/09/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Dec 9 05:31:01 UTC 2023.View the full article

MD 2303 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR WESTERN ARKANSAS...FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS Mesoscale Discussion 2303 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0925 PM CST Fri Dec 08 2023 Areas affected...western Arkansas...far southeast Oklahoma...far northeast Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 090325Z - 090530Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Hail may be noted with the strongest convection this evening. Severe thunderstorm watch is not currently anticipated. DISCUSSION...Pronounced surface front is advancing across eastern OK/northwest AR this evening. This boundary will continue surging east in response to a progressive short-wave trough approaching the MS Valley. Boundary-layer moisture has gradually returned to the Arklatex region where surface dew points are now in the lower 60s as far north as Hot Springs. Over the last hour or so, frontal convergence has instigated deeper/longer-lived updrafts over southeast OK. This activity is developing within an environment characterized by steepening mid-level lapse rates and modest buoyancy. Latest RAP forecast soundings suggest this activity is likely rooted near, or just above the surface within a sheared regime favorable for sustained, rotating updrafts. Frontal convection appears to be somewhat linear, but some supercell traits may be evolving with the convection over McCurtain County OK where latest MRMS data suggest hail could be approaching 1 inch in diameter. Further development is expected along the boundary as it advances into western AR, possibly as far southwest as northeast TX. Hail should be the main severe threat with this activity. Will continue to monitor this region, but unless more widespread hail cores develop a severe thunderstorm watch may not be warranted. ..Darrow/Thompson.. 12/09/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA... LAT...LON 34029505 35729341 35359231 33469398 34029505 Read more View the full article

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 PM CST Fri Dec 08 2023 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ARK-LA-TEX AND OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... An isolated large-hail threat will be possible this evening into tonight across parts of the Ark-La-Tex and Ozarks. A marginal tornado threat could also develop in parts of central and northern Arkansas. ...Ark-La-Tex/Ozarks... Latest water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level trough over the central Plains and southern Rockies. Mid-level moisture was evident near and to the east of the trough from Colorado into western Kansas. An associated 80 to 100 kt mid-level jet will translate eastward into the base of the trough this evening. Ahead of the system, a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet will move east-northeastward across the mid Mississippi Valley. Isolated thunderstorm development will be possible on the western edge of the low-level jet this evening into tonight, as large-scale ascent increases from the west. The strongest convection is expected to form along the northern edge of a corridor of moderate instability from central Arkansas into southern Missouri. Any cell that can initiate and become sustained could have a threat for isolated large hail. The combination of shear and instability is forecast to become maximized over central and northern Arkansas, where a marginal tornado threat will also be possible. Any threat that develops could persist into the 09Z to 12Z timeframe, as the upper-level system moves into the region. ..Broyles.. 12/09/2023 Read more View the full article

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CST Fri Dec 08 2023 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z The potential for fire weather concerns appears limited through the extended period. Long-range ensemble guidance shows fairly good agreement in the synoptic evolution beyond this weekend and into next week. A stout surface high will become established east of the Rockies in the wake of this weekend's upper trough (currently deepening over the Southwest/Southern Plains) and attendant surface low/cold frontal passage. This should favor cool and quiescent conditions across much of the country with low fire weather potential. A weak disturbance around mid-week should bring rain chances to parts of the Plains, further limiting fire weather concerns. One region that may see localized fire conditions is southern CA into the lower CO River Basin. While the offshore pressure gradient is expected to abate Sunday into early next week, residual offshore winds may support pockets of elevated fire weather conditions Sunday into early Monday. The resumption of north/northeasterly low to mid-level flow on the western periphery of a weak upper disturbance mid-week, combined with persistent dry conditions, may support an additional round of localized elevated fire weather conditions around D7/Wed to D8/Thur. Trends across this region will continue to be monitored. ..Moore.. 12/08/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CST Fri Dec 08 2023 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z The potential for fire weather concerns appears limited through the extended period. Long-range ensemble guidance shows fairly good agreement in the synoptic evolution beyond this weekend and into next week. A stout surface high will become established east of the Rockies in the wake of this weekend's upper trough (currently deepening over the Southwest/Southern Plains) and attendant surface low/cold frontal passage. This should favor cool and quiescent conditions across much of the country with low fire weather potential. A weak disturbance around mid-week should bring rain chances to parts of the Plains, further limiting fire weather concerns. One region that may see localized fire conditions is southern CA into the lower CO River Basin. While the offshore pressure gradient is expected to abate Sunday into early next week, residual offshore winds may support pockets of elevated fire weather conditions Sunday into early Monday. The resumption of north/northeasterly low to mid-level flow on the western periphery of a weak upper disturbance mid-week, combined with persistent dry conditions, may support an additional round of localized elevated fire weather conditions around D7/Wed to D8/Thur. Trends across this region will continue to be monitored. ..Moore.. 12/08/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Fri Dec 08 2023 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible this evening and overnight across the ArkLaTex and Ozarks. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the severe probabilities. Uncertainty remains regarding storm coverage this evening/tonight from the ArkLaTex into the Ozarks, but a conditional supercell threat remains evident. See the previous discussion below for more details. A cluster of elevated storms may develop later this evening across parts of western/central MO and move northeastward in conjunction with an ejecting midlevel shortwave trough. While favorable deep-layer shear may support some organization with this cluster, the hail threat appears limited by weak buoyancy and a primarily cluster/linear mode, while the wind threat will be limited by cool/stable near-surface conditions. This area will continue to be monitored into the evening, in case shorter-term observational trends support somewhat more favorable instability across the region. Also, the general thunderstorm area has been expanded slightly northeastward, since stronger convection may reach portions of southeast WI before the end of the period. ..Dean.. 12/08/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Fri Dec 08 2023/ ...Ozarks/ArkLaTex... Height falls will regionally increase late today into tonight owing to the interface of a northern Plains shortwave trough and the east/northeastward ejection of a trough/jet streak from the central/southern Rockies. As this occurs, lower/some middle 60s F surface dewpoints are expected to become increasingly prevalent tonight across the ArkLaTex and sizable portions of Arkansas in advance of a front and dryline across Texas. Thunderstorms are expected to become more probable regionally and tend to increase in coverage after sunset, and particularly into the late evening/overnight hours as they move northeastward across the region. Initial development will be possible across far southeast Kansas, central /southern Missouri, and eastern Oklahoma/western Arkansas, with more isolated storms farther south. Regarding the northern end of development, surface-based buoyancy should remain limited in vicinity of the near-frontal surface wave across Missouri. While small hail and/or gusty winds may occur, the primary surface risk should be focused farther south. A few severe storms will be possible across the Arklatex/Arkansas this evening into the overnight. Hail is the most probable hazard amidst 40-45 kt effective shear, but forecast soundings suggest that a few near-surface-based storms could materialize this evening into the overnight. Accordingly, a low potential for a tornado may also exist mainly across portions of Arkansas. Read more View the full article

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Fri Dec 08 2023 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible this evening and overnight across the ArkLaTex and Ozarks. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the severe probabilities. Uncertainty remains regarding storm coverage this evening/tonight from the ArkLaTex into the Ozarks, but a conditional supercell threat remains evident. See the previous discussion below for more details. A cluster of elevated storms may develop later this evening across parts of western/central MO and move northeastward in conjunction with an ejecting midlevel shortwave trough. While favorable deep-layer shear may support some organization with this cluster, the hail threat appears limited by weak buoyancy and a primarily cluster/linear mode, while the wind threat will be limited by cool/stable near-surface conditions. This area will continue to be monitored into the evening, in case shorter-term observational trends support somewhat more favorable instability across the region. Also, the general thunderstorm area has been expanded slightly northeastward, since stronger convection may reach portions of southeast WI before the end of the period. ..Dean.. 12/08/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Fri Dec 08 2023/ ...Ozarks/ArkLaTex... Height falls will regionally increase late today into tonight owing to the interface of a northern Plains shortwave trough and the east/northeastward ejection of a trough/jet streak from the central/southern Rockies. As this occurs, lower/some middle 60s F surface dewpoints are expected to become increasingly prevalent tonight across the ArkLaTex and sizable portions of Arkansas in advance of a front and dryline across Texas. Thunderstorms are expected to become more probable regionally and tend to increase in coverage after sunset, and particularly into the late evening/overnight hours as they move northeastward across the region. Initial development will be possible across far southeast Kansas, central /southern Missouri, and eastern Oklahoma/western Arkansas, with more isolated storms farther south. Regarding the northern end of development, surface-based buoyancy should remain limited in vicinity of the near-frontal surface wave across Missouri. While small hail and/or gusty winds may occur, the primary surface risk should be focused farther south. A few severe storms will be possible across the Arklatex/Arkansas this evening into the overnight. Hail is the most probable hazard amidst 40-45 kt effective shear, but forecast soundings suggest that a few near-surface-based storms could materialize this evening into the overnight. Accordingly, a low potential for a tornado may also exist mainly across portions of Arkansas. Read more View the full article

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Fri Dec 08 2023 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible this evening and overnight across the ArkLaTex and Ozarks. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the severe probabilities. Uncertainty remains regarding storm coverage this evening/tonight from the ArkLaTex into the Ozarks, but a conditional supercell threat remains evident. See the previous discussion below for more details. A cluster of elevated storms may develop later this evening across parts of western/central MO and move northeastward in conjunction with an ejecting midlevel shortwave trough. While favorable deep-layer shear may support some organization with this cluster, the hail threat appears limited by weak buoyancy and a primarily cluster/linear mode, while the wind threat will be limited by cool/stable near-surface conditions. This area will continue to be monitored into the evening, in case shorter-term observational trends support somewhat more favorable instability across the region. Also, the general thunderstorm area has been expanded slightly northeastward, since stronger convection may reach portions of southeast WI before the end of the period. ..Dean.. 12/08/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Fri Dec 08 2023/ ...Ozarks/ArkLaTex... Height falls will regionally increase late today into tonight owing to the interface of a northern Plains shortwave trough and the east/northeastward ejection of a trough/jet streak from the central/southern Rockies. As this occurs, lower/some middle 60s F surface dewpoints are expected to become increasingly prevalent tonight across the ArkLaTex and sizable portions of Arkansas in advance of a front and dryline across Texas. Thunderstorms are expected to become more probable regionally and tend to increase in coverage after sunset, and particularly into the late evening/overnight hours as they move northeastward across the region. Initial development will be possible across far southeast Kansas, central /southern Missouri, and eastern Oklahoma/western Arkansas, with more isolated storms farther south. Regarding the northern end of development, surface-based buoyancy should remain limited in vicinity of the near-frontal surface wave across Missouri. While small hail and/or gusty winds may occur, the primary surface risk should be focused farther south. A few severe storms will be possible across the Arklatex/Arkansas this evening into the overnight. Hail is the most probable hazard amidst 40-45 kt effective shear, but forecast soundings suggest that a few near-surface-based storms could materialize this evening into the overnight. Accordingly, a low potential for a tornado may also exist mainly across portions of Arkansas. Read more View the full article

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 PM CST Fri Dec 08 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z An Elevated risk area is introduced to portions of southern coastal CA for Saturday. Offshore pressure gradients across southern CA have steadily been strengthening over the past 6-12 hours, and most deterministic solutions suggest they should reach peak intensity Saturday morning (e.g. DAG-LAX gradient between -6 to -9 mb during the 12-15 UTC period). This should support strong winds gusting between 30-50 mph (with more isolated gusts near 60 mph) within the coastal ranges from eastern Ventura/western LA counties southward to the Mexican border. Downslope warming/drying should support RH reductions into the low teens in the lee of the terrain. Areas of elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected; however, fuel guidance continues to suggest that most fuels are only modestly receptive. This should preclude a more robust fire threat, but the expected wind/RH conditions warrant Elevated highlights. The fire weather forecast for southern TX remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on trends in recent ensemble guidance. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 12/08/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1154 PM CST Thu Dec 07 2023/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough will move through the southern Plains and towards the lower Mississippi Valley, amplifying as it progresses. At the surface, a cold front will continue to the east through the Plains. Dry, gusty conditions are likely for at least parts of the southern High Plains into the Rio Grande Valley. RH may end up more marginal on Saturday compared to Friday due to the cold advection. Values near 20% appear possible for the Trans-Pecos into the adjacent Rio Grande Valley. Winds of 15-20 mph (with higher gusts) are probable as well. Fine fuels are expected to be marginally dry and support an elevated fire weather threat. Offshore winds in southern California will likely peak Saturday morning. Moderately strong winds could continue through much of the day, particularly in the wind-prone areas. RH could fall as low as 10-15% in some areas with 15-20% being more common. Recent fuel guidance continues to suggest unreceptive fuels, especially within the higher elevations. Drier fine fuels are possible in the valleys/plains. Despite elevated to critical meteorological conditions, fuels should generally mitigate most concerns. Locally elevated conditions are still possible for several hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 PM CST Fri Dec 08 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z An Elevated risk area is introduced to portions of southern coastal CA for Saturday. Offshore pressure gradients across southern CA have steadily been strengthening over the past 6-12 hours, and most deterministic solutions suggest they should reach peak intensity Saturday morning (e.g. DAG-LAX gradient between -6 to -9 mb during the 12-15 UTC period). This should support strong winds gusting between 30-50 mph (with more isolated gusts near 60 mph) within the coastal ranges from eastern Ventura/western LA counties southward to the Mexican border. Downslope warming/drying should support RH reductions into the low teens in the lee of the terrain. Areas of elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected; however, fuel guidance continues to suggest that most fuels are only modestly receptive. This should preclude a more robust fire threat, but the expected wind/RH conditions warrant Elevated highlights. The fire weather forecast for southern TX remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on trends in recent ensemble guidance. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 12/08/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1154 PM CST Thu Dec 07 2023/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough will move through the southern Plains and towards the lower Mississippi Valley, amplifying as it progresses. At the surface, a cold front will continue to the east through the Plains. Dry, gusty conditions are likely for at least parts of the southern High Plains into the Rio Grande Valley. RH may end up more marginal on Saturday compared to Friday due to the cold advection. Values near 20% appear possible for the Trans-Pecos into the adjacent Rio Grande Valley. Winds of 15-20 mph (with higher gusts) are probable as well. Fine fuels are expected to be marginally dry and support an elevated fire weather threat. Offshore winds in southern California will likely peak Saturday morning. Moderately strong winds could continue through much of the day, particularly in the wind-prone areas. RH could fall as low as 10-15% in some areas with 15-20% being more common. Recent fuel guidance continues to suggest unreceptive fuels, especially within the higher elevations. Drier fine fuels are possible in the valleys/plains. Despite elevated to critical meteorological conditions, fuels should generally mitigate most concerns. Locally elevated conditions are still possible for several hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 PM CST Fri Dec 08 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z An Elevated risk area is introduced to portions of southern coastal CA for Saturday. Offshore pressure gradients across southern CA have steadily been strengthening over the past 6-12 hours, and most deterministic solutions suggest they should reach peak intensity Saturday morning (e.g. DAG-LAX gradient between -6 to -9 mb during the 12-15 UTC period). This should support strong winds gusting between 30-50 mph (with more isolated gusts near 60 mph) within the coastal ranges from eastern Ventura/western LA counties southward to the Mexican border. Downslope warming/drying should support RH reductions into the low teens in the lee of the terrain. Areas of elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected; however, fuel guidance continues to suggest that most fuels are only modestly receptive. This should preclude a more robust fire threat, but the expected wind/RH conditions warrant Elevated highlights. The fire weather forecast for southern TX remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on trends in recent ensemble guidance. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 12/08/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1154 PM CST Thu Dec 07 2023/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough will move through the southern Plains and towards the lower Mississippi Valley, amplifying as it progresses. At the surface, a cold front will continue to the east through the Plains. Dry, gusty conditions are likely for at least parts of the southern High Plains into the Rio Grande Valley. RH may end up more marginal on Saturday compared to Friday due to the cold advection. Values near 20% appear possible for the Trans-Pecos into the adjacent Rio Grande Valley. Winds of 15-20 mph (with higher gusts) are probable as well. Fine fuels are expected to be marginally dry and support an elevated fire weather threat. Offshore winds in southern California will likely peak Saturday morning. Moderately strong winds could continue through much of the day, particularly in the wind-prone areas. RH could fall as low as 10-15% in some areas with 15-20% being more common. Recent fuel guidance continues to suggest unreceptive fuels, especially within the higher elevations. Drier fine fuels are possible in the valleys/plains. Despite elevated to critical meteorological conditions, fuels should generally mitigate most concerns. Locally elevated conditions are still possible for several hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article