NorthGeorgiaWX

WW 0714 Status Updates STATUS REPORT ON WW 714 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE ELD TO 60 WSW MEM TO 30 NNE MKL TO 20 NNE HOP TO 15 SSW OWB. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2305 ..SQUITIERI..12/09/23 ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...LMK...PAH...JAN...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 714 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-011-041-043-079-107-092140- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS BRADLEY DESHA DREW LINCOLN PHILLIPS KYC003-009-031-061-085-087-093-099-123-141-169-171-177-183-213- 219-227-092140- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BARREN BUTLER EDMONSON GRAYSON GREEN HARDIN HART LARUE LOGAN METCALFE MONROE MUHLENBERG OHIO SIMPSON TODD WARREN Read more View the full article

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESEE...AND SMALL PARTS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND FAR SOUTHERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes, scattered large hail and areas of damaging winds are expected through the afternoon into the evening from portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys southward to the Lower Mississippi Valley and middle Gulf Coast. ...Lower MS Valley into much of TN and southern KY... Tornado probabilities have been increased within an Enhanced Risk for the unfolding tornado situation over western into Middle TN and far southern KY, and extending into northern MS. Cells have remained discrete and are currently within a developing instability plume, adjacent to an area of enhanced low-level shear over Middle TN, southern KY and northern MS. The combination of favorable storm mode, and fully-effective 0-1 SRH of 150-200 m2/s2 will pose a damaging tornado risk through the late afternoon. The greatest threat area may remain relatively concentrated due to the cooler air mass to the east, but an isolated strong tornado or two is possible. For more information, see mesoscale discussion 2305. ..Jewell.. 12/09/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM CST Sat Dec 09 2023/ ...Gulf Coast/Lower Mississippi Valley/Tennessee Valley... Region is being increasingly influenced by height falls but otherwise resides between larger scale influences of an upper trough over the Upper Midwest and a positive-tilt trough over the southern High Plains. Increasing warm-sector moisture (generally lower to some middle 60s F surface dewpoints) ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front, along with considerable deep-layer/low-level shear, will be favorable factors for a long-duration severe risk through the afternoon into tonight. However, the likelihood of a complex/mixed quasi-linear convective mode casts uncertainty regarding the magnitude of the severe risk, particularly regarding a supercell-related sustained/focused tornado risk. It is also noted that some guidance suggests that 1-3km AGL winds may somewhat weaken by late afternoon/early evening within the warm sector, while noting SRH will still remain favorable for rotating/severe storms. Storms should continue to increase in coverage through early afternoon, initially near the front across Arkansas northeastward into western portions of Tennessee/Kentucky. Sufficiently steep mid-level lapse rates will support some hail potential, especially the first part of the day, but the tendency for storm clustering will otherwise limit this overall potential, as well as limiting prospects for more consequential hail magnitudes. As the boundary layer warms this afternoon, the potential for initially semi-discrete supercells will increase along with related damaging wind risk as well as tornado potential, which will persist through the afternoon/evening even with a quasi-linear convective mode. As warm-sector inhibition further weakens later this afternoon, additional deepening convection may develop within weak pre-frontal convergence/confluence regime, mainly across Mississippi into Alabama, with this development eventually merging with or taking over as the main convective band this evening. Similarly, pre-frontal confluence may support isolated supercellular development along the Gulf Coast/Florida Panhandle vicinity through late night hours/early Sunday, within a somewhat separate regime capable of a few severe storms. Read more View the full article

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESEE...AND SMALL PARTS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND FAR SOUTHERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes, scattered large hail and areas of damaging winds are expected through the afternoon into the evening from portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys southward to the Lower Mississippi Valley and middle Gulf Coast. ...Lower MS Valley into much of TN and southern KY... Tornado probabilities have been increased within an Enhanced Risk for the unfolding tornado situation over western into Middle TN and far southern KY, and extending into northern MS. Cells have remained discrete and are currently within a developing instability plume, adjacent to an area of enhanced low-level shear over Middle TN, southern KY and northern MS. The combination of favorable storm mode, and fully-effective 0-1 SRH of 150-200 m2/s2 will pose a damaging tornado risk through the late afternoon. The greatest threat area may remain relatively concentrated due to the cooler air mass to the east, but an isolated strong tornado or two is possible. For more information, see mesoscale discussion 2305. ..Jewell.. 12/09/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM CST Sat Dec 09 2023/ ...Gulf Coast/Lower Mississippi Valley/Tennessee Valley... Region is being increasingly influenced by height falls but otherwise resides between larger scale influences of an upper trough over the Upper Midwest and a positive-tilt trough over the southern High Plains. Increasing warm-sector moisture (generally lower to some middle 60s F surface dewpoints) ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front, along with considerable deep-layer/low-level shear, will be favorable factors for a long-duration severe risk through the afternoon into tonight. However, the likelihood of a complex/mixed quasi-linear convective mode casts uncertainty regarding the magnitude of the severe risk, particularly regarding a supercell-related sustained/focused tornado risk. It is also noted that some guidance suggests that 1-3km AGL winds may somewhat weaken by late afternoon/early evening within the warm sector, while noting SRH will still remain favorable for rotating/severe storms. Storms should continue to increase in coverage through early afternoon, initially near the front across Arkansas northeastward into western portions of Tennessee/Kentucky. Sufficiently steep mid-level lapse rates will support some hail potential, especially the first part of the day, but the tendency for storm clustering will otherwise limit this overall potential, as well as limiting prospects for more consequential hail magnitudes. As the boundary layer warms this afternoon, the potential for initially semi-discrete supercells will increase along with related damaging wind risk as well as tornado potential, which will persist through the afternoon/evening even with a quasi-linear convective mode. As warm-sector inhibition further weakens later this afternoon, additional deepening convection may develop within weak pre-frontal convergence/confluence regime, mainly across Mississippi into Alabama, with this development eventually merging with or taking over as the main convective band this evening. Similarly, pre-frontal confluence may support isolated supercellular development along the Gulf Coast/Florida Panhandle vicinity through late night hours/early Sunday, within a somewhat separate regime capable of a few severe storms. Read more View the full article

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESEE...AND SMALL PARTS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND FAR SOUTHERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes, scattered large hail and areas of damaging winds are expected through the afternoon into the evening from portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys southward to the Lower Mississippi Valley and middle Gulf Coast. ...Lower MS Valley into much of TN and southern KY... Tornado probabilities have been increased within an Enhanced Risk for the unfolding tornado situation over western into Middle TN and far southern KY, and extending into northern MS. Cells have remained discrete and are currently within a developing instability plume, adjacent to an area of enhanced low-level shear over Middle TN, southern KY and northern MS. The combination of favorable storm mode, and fully-effective 0-1 SRH of 150-200 m2/s2 will pose a damaging tornado risk through the late afternoon. The greatest threat area may remain relatively concentrated due to the cooler air mass to the east, but an isolated strong tornado or two is possible. For more information, see mesoscale discussion 2305. ..Jewell.. 12/09/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM CST Sat Dec 09 2023/ ...Gulf Coast/Lower Mississippi Valley/Tennessee Valley... Region is being increasingly influenced by height falls but otherwise resides between larger scale influences of an upper trough over the Upper Midwest and a positive-tilt trough over the southern High Plains. Increasing warm-sector moisture (generally lower to some middle 60s F surface dewpoints) ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front, along with considerable deep-layer/low-level shear, will be favorable factors for a long-duration severe risk through the afternoon into tonight. However, the likelihood of a complex/mixed quasi-linear convective mode casts uncertainty regarding the magnitude of the severe risk, particularly regarding a supercell-related sustained/focused tornado risk. It is also noted that some guidance suggests that 1-3km AGL winds may somewhat weaken by late afternoon/early evening within the warm sector, while noting SRH will still remain favorable for rotating/severe storms. Storms should continue to increase in coverage through early afternoon, initially near the front across Arkansas northeastward into western portions of Tennessee/Kentucky. Sufficiently steep mid-level lapse rates will support some hail potential, especially the first part of the day, but the tendency for storm clustering will otherwise limit this overall potential, as well as limiting prospects for more consequential hail magnitudes. As the boundary layer warms this afternoon, the potential for initially semi-discrete supercells will increase along with related damaging wind risk as well as tornado potential, which will persist through the afternoon/evening even with a quasi-linear convective mode. As warm-sector inhibition further weakens later this afternoon, additional deepening convection may develop within weak pre-frontal convergence/confluence regime, mainly across Mississippi into Alabama, with this development eventually merging with or taking over as the main convective band this evening. Similarly, pre-frontal confluence may support isolated supercellular development along the Gulf Coast/Florida Panhandle vicinity through late night hours/early Sunday, within a somewhat separate regime capable of a few severe storms. Read more View the full article

MD 2305 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 714... FOR WESTERN/CENTRAL KY...WESTERN/MIDDLE TN...NORTHWEST MS...EASTERN AR...NORTHWEST AL Mesoscale Discussion 2305 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Areas affected...Western/central KY...Western/middle TN...Northwest MS...Eastern AR...Northwest AL Concerning...Tornado Watch 714... Valid 091959Z - 092130Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 714 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for a few tornadoes and isolated severe wind/hail will continue through the afternoon, with storm coverage expected to increase with time. DISCUSSION...A broken line of supercells is ongoing early this afternoon from western TN into eastern AR, with occasional rotating cells noted within a larger storm cluster across western KY. A supercell cluster currently approaching the TN/KY border produced an earlier apparent tornado in northwest TN, with another tornado recently noted just southwest of the KHPX radar. The other cells along the broken line will continue to pose a threat of all severe hazards as they move east-northeastward. These cells are ongoing along and just ahead of a composite outflow boundary/cold front that will continue to move eastward this afternoon. Deep-layer flow parallel to the boundary may encourage an increase in storm coverage and a transition to more of a mixed mode with time, though embedded supercells will likely continue to be possible through the afternoon, with all severe hazards possible. The greatest short-term tornado threat (including the potential for a strong tornado) will likely continue to be focused from far northwest MS into western/middle TN, southern KY, and eventually extreme northwest AL, where the most favorable overlap of low-level/deep-layer shear (including 0-1 km SRH of 150-250 m2/s2 noted on regional VWPs and objective mesoanalyses) and instability (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) will persist this afternoon, prior to the arrival of the front. This area is being upgraded to an Enhanced Risk (driven by 10% tornado probabilities) in the upcoming 20Z outlook. Also, downstream watch issuance will likely be needed later this afternoon, as storms approach a larger portion of middle TN into northwest AL. ..Dean.. 12/09/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK... LAT...LON 33789213 36798744 37298748 37808641 37888586 37788538 37348501 35628616 34618772 33659023 33769178 33789213 Read more View the full article

WW 0714 Status Updates STATUS REPORT ON WW 714 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S JBR TO 40 ENE DYR TO 35 W HOP TO 40 NNW HOP TO 20 SW OWB. ..SQUITIERI..12/09/23 ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...LMK...PAH...JAN...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 714 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-011-013-025-035-039-041-043-069-077-079-095-103-107-123- 092040- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS BRADLEY CALHOUN CLEVELAND CRITTENDEN DALLAS DESHA DREW JEFFERSON LEE LINCOLN MONROE OUACHITA PHILLIPS ST. FRANCIS KYC003-009-031-047-061-085-087-093-099-107-123-141-169-171-177- 183-213-219-221-227-092040- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BARREN BUTLER CHRISTIAN EDMONSON GRAYSON GREEN HARDIN HART HOPKINS LARUE LOGAN METCALFE MONROE MUHLENBERG OHIO SIMPSON TODD Read more View the full article

WW 0714 Status Updates STATUS REPORT ON WW 714 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S JBR TO 40 ENE DYR TO 35 W HOP TO 40 NNW HOP TO 20 SW OWB. ..SQUITIERI..12/09/23 ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...LMK...PAH...JAN...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 714 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-011-013-025-035-039-041-043-069-077-079-095-103-107-123- 092040- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS BRADLEY CALHOUN CLEVELAND CRITTENDEN DALLAS DESHA DREW JEFFERSON LEE LINCOLN MONROE OUACHITA PHILLIPS ST. FRANCIS KYC003-009-031-047-061-085-087-093-099-107-123-141-169-171-177- 183-213-219-221-227-092040- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BARREN BUTLER CHRISTIAN EDMONSON GRAYSON GREEN HARDIN HART HOPKINS LARUE LOGAN METCALFE MONROE MUHLENBERG OHIO SIMPSON TODD Read more View the full article

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z An Elevated risk area is introduced for portions of coastal southern CA for Sunday. Latest observations show areas of elevated to critical fire weather conditions ongoing within the coastal ranges. Recent deterministic solutions indicate that the regional pressure gradient driving these winds will persist well into Sunday morning and perhaps into Sunday afternoon. This idea is supported by ensemble guidance, which has increased confidence in multiple hours of at least elevated fire weather conditions Sunday, warranting a risk area. Other forecast concerns outlined in the previous discussion (below) remain on track. ..Moore.. 12/09/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1142 PM CST Fri Dec 08 2023/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough will continue through the Southeast before lifting into the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday. The surface high in the West will move into the southern Plains and Gulf of Mexico. A belt of strong mid-level northwesterly winds will remain in the central Rockies. Modest lee troughing may occur in the southern/central High Plains as a result. ...Southern California... Offshore pressure gradients will continue to diminish. The strongest winds will again be early in the day. RH recovery during Saturday night may only be modest. Though some elevated fire weather may occur early in the period, diminishing coverage and intensity of winds, a slight offset of the lowest RH with the strongest winds, and winds becoming more confined to the terrain where fuels are less receptive should keep the bulk of fire weather concerns localized. ...Southern High Plains... As the surface high shifts east and a weak lee trough develops, some modestly dry and breezy conditions are possible in parts of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle/South Plains. With both winds and RH being marginal, fire weather concerns that exist should remain rather localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z An Elevated risk area is introduced for portions of coastal southern CA for Sunday. Latest observations show areas of elevated to critical fire weather conditions ongoing within the coastal ranges. Recent deterministic solutions indicate that the regional pressure gradient driving these winds will persist well into Sunday morning and perhaps into Sunday afternoon. This idea is supported by ensemble guidance, which has increased confidence in multiple hours of at least elevated fire weather conditions Sunday, warranting a risk area. Other forecast concerns outlined in the previous discussion (below) remain on track. ..Moore.. 12/09/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1142 PM CST Fri Dec 08 2023/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough will continue through the Southeast before lifting into the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday. The surface high in the West will move into the southern Plains and Gulf of Mexico. A belt of strong mid-level northwesterly winds will remain in the central Rockies. Modest lee troughing may occur in the southern/central High Plains as a result. ...Southern California... Offshore pressure gradients will continue to diminish. The strongest winds will again be early in the day. RH recovery during Saturday night may only be modest. Though some elevated fire weather may occur early in the period, diminishing coverage and intensity of winds, a slight offset of the lowest RH with the strongest winds, and winds becoming more confined to the terrain where fuels are less receptive should keep the bulk of fire weather concerns localized. ...Southern High Plains... As the surface high shifts east and a weak lee trough develops, some modestly dry and breezy conditions are possible in parts of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle/South Plains. With both winds and RH being marginal, fire weather concerns that exist should remain rather localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z An Elevated risk area is introduced for portions of coastal southern CA for Sunday. Latest observations show areas of elevated to critical fire weather conditions ongoing within the coastal ranges. Recent deterministic solutions indicate that the regional pressure gradient driving these winds will persist well into Sunday morning and perhaps into Sunday afternoon. This idea is supported by ensemble guidance, which has increased confidence in multiple hours of at least elevated fire weather conditions Sunday, warranting a risk area. Other forecast concerns outlined in the previous discussion (below) remain on track. ..Moore.. 12/09/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1142 PM CST Fri Dec 08 2023/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough will continue through the Southeast before lifting into the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday. The surface high in the West will move into the southern Plains and Gulf of Mexico. A belt of strong mid-level northwesterly winds will remain in the central Rockies. Modest lee troughing may occur in the southern/central High Plains as a result. ...Southern California... Offshore pressure gradients will continue to diminish. The strongest winds will again be early in the day. RH recovery during Saturday night may only be modest. Though some elevated fire weather may occur early in the period, diminishing coverage and intensity of winds, a slight offset of the lowest RH with the strongest winds, and winds becoming more confined to the terrain where fuels are less receptive should keep the bulk of fire weather concerns localized. ...Southern High Plains... As the surface high shifts east and a weak lee trough develops, some modestly dry and breezy conditions are possible in parts of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle/South Plains. With both winds and RH being marginal, fire weather concerns that exist should remain rather localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST AND TOWARD PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible through Sunday evening across parts of the Southeast States, mainly in the form of sporadic damaging winds and a few brief tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A highly amplified upper trough will move from the MS Valley toward the East Coast on Sunday, with a primary embedded speed max ejecting quickly from the northern Gulf Coast toward the Mid Atlantic. At the surface, a cold front will push east across the Appalachians during the afternoon, with the strongest frontal surge across the Southeast late in the day and into the evening. Ahead of the cold front, a surface trough will gradually deepen from MD southwestward to the FL Panhandle, with 40-50 kt southerly 850 mb flow aiding moistening. Front-parallel winds aloft as well as modest destabilization will likely lead to scattered storms, with a few becoming severe across the region. ...Parts of the Southeast and East Coast... Scattered storms are likely to be ongoing along the front from southern AL and the western FL Panhandle across northern GA and the Appalachians Sunday morning, with substantial low clouds across much of the region. Lack of appreciable heating will generally reduce available instability, but sufficient boundary layer moisture with low to perhaps mid 60s F dewpoints will result in a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE ahead of the cold front. The strongest cooling aloft will occur behind the boundary, as the upper trough will be quite amplified with meridional flow aloft. Storms across the Southeast may eventually become linear as the cold front accelerates, and this may yield a few damaging gusts. Low-level shear may also favor isolated supercells with brief tornado threat, with the main mitigating factor being lack of heating. Any pockets of strong heating that do develop could yield mesocale areas of higher potential, and the southeastern area will be monitored going into the Day 1 period. Farther north into the Mid Atlantic, boundary layer stability will likely reduce severe potential to Marginal Risk levels due to the combination of weak lift/convergence combined with the cloudy/saturated profiles. Still, strengthening mean winds in the lowest few km may support strong to perhaps damaging gusts. ..Jewell.. 12/09/2023 Read more View the full article

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST AND TOWARD PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible through Sunday evening across parts of the Southeast States, mainly in the form of sporadic damaging winds and a few brief tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A highly amplified upper trough will move from the MS Valley toward the East Coast on Sunday, with a primary embedded speed max ejecting quickly from the northern Gulf Coast toward the Mid Atlantic. At the surface, a cold front will push east across the Appalachians during the afternoon, with the strongest frontal surge across the Southeast late in the day and into the evening. Ahead of the cold front, a surface trough will gradually deepen from MD southwestward to the FL Panhandle, with 40-50 kt southerly 850 mb flow aiding moistening. Front-parallel winds aloft as well as modest destabilization will likely lead to scattered storms, with a few becoming severe across the region. ...Parts of the Southeast and East Coast... Scattered storms are likely to be ongoing along the front from southern AL and the western FL Panhandle across northern GA and the Appalachians Sunday morning, with substantial low clouds across much of the region. Lack of appreciable heating will generally reduce available instability, but sufficient boundary layer moisture with low to perhaps mid 60s F dewpoints will result in a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE ahead of the cold front. The strongest cooling aloft will occur behind the boundary, as the upper trough will be quite amplified with meridional flow aloft. Storms across the Southeast may eventually become linear as the cold front accelerates, and this may yield a few damaging gusts. Low-level shear may also favor isolated supercells with brief tornado threat, with the main mitigating factor being lack of heating. Any pockets of strong heating that do develop could yield mesocale areas of higher potential, and the southeastern area will be monitored going into the Day 1 period. Farther north into the Mid Atlantic, boundary layer stability will likely reduce severe potential to Marginal Risk levels due to the combination of weak lift/convergence combined with the cloudy/saturated profiles. Still, strengthening mean winds in the lowest few km may support strong to perhaps damaging gusts. ..Jewell.. 12/09/2023 Read more View the full article

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST AND TOWARD PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible through Sunday evening across parts of the Southeast States, mainly in the form of sporadic damaging winds and a few brief tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A highly amplified upper trough will move from the MS Valley toward the East Coast on Sunday, with a primary embedded speed max ejecting quickly from the northern Gulf Coast toward the Mid Atlantic. At the surface, a cold front will push east across the Appalachians during the afternoon, with the strongest frontal surge across the Southeast late in the day and into the evening. Ahead of the cold front, a surface trough will gradually deepen from MD southwestward to the FL Panhandle, with 40-50 kt southerly 850 mb flow aiding moistening. Front-parallel winds aloft as well as modest destabilization will likely lead to scattered storms, with a few becoming severe across the region. ...Parts of the Southeast and East Coast... Scattered storms are likely to be ongoing along the front from southern AL and the western FL Panhandle across northern GA and the Appalachians Sunday morning, with substantial low clouds across much of the region. Lack of appreciable heating will generally reduce available instability, but sufficient boundary layer moisture with low to perhaps mid 60s F dewpoints will result in a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE ahead of the cold front. The strongest cooling aloft will occur behind the boundary, as the upper trough will be quite amplified with meridional flow aloft. Storms across the Southeast may eventually become linear as the cold front accelerates, and this may yield a few damaging gusts. Low-level shear may also favor isolated supercells with brief tornado threat, with the main mitigating factor being lack of heating. Any pockets of strong heating that do develop could yield mesocale areas of higher potential, and the southeastern area will be monitored going into the Day 1 period. Farther north into the Mid Atlantic, boundary layer stability will likely reduce severe potential to Marginal Risk levels due to the combination of weak lift/convergence combined with the cloudy/saturated profiles. Still, strengthening mean winds in the lowest few km may support strong to perhaps damaging gusts. ..Jewell.. 12/09/2023 Read more View the full article

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST AND TOWARD PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible through Sunday evening across parts of the Southeast States, mainly in the form of sporadic damaging winds and a few brief tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A highly amplified upper trough will move from the MS Valley toward the East Coast on Sunday, with a primary embedded speed max ejecting quickly from the northern Gulf Coast toward the Mid Atlantic. At the surface, a cold front will push east across the Appalachians during the afternoon, with the strongest frontal surge across the Southeast late in the day and into the evening. Ahead of the cold front, a surface trough will gradually deepen from MD southwestward to the FL Panhandle, with 40-50 kt southerly 850 mb flow aiding moistening. Front-parallel winds aloft as well as modest destabilization will likely lead to scattered storms, with a few becoming severe across the region. ...Parts of the Southeast and East Coast... Scattered storms are likely to be ongoing along the front from southern AL and the western FL Panhandle across northern GA and the Appalachians Sunday morning, with substantial low clouds across much of the region. Lack of appreciable heating will generally reduce available instability, but sufficient boundary layer moisture with low to perhaps mid 60s F dewpoints will result in a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE ahead of the cold front. The strongest cooling aloft will occur behind the boundary, as the upper trough will be quite amplified with meridional flow aloft. Storms across the Southeast may eventually become linear as the cold front accelerates, and this may yield a few damaging gusts. Low-level shear may also favor isolated supercells with brief tornado threat, with the main mitigating factor being lack of heating. Any pockets of strong heating that do develop could yield mesocale areas of higher potential, and the southeastern area will be monitored going into the Day 1 period. Farther north into the Mid Atlantic, boundary layer stability will likely reduce severe potential to Marginal Risk levels due to the combination of weak lift/convergence combined with the cloudy/saturated profiles. Still, strengthening mean winds in the lowest few km may support strong to perhaps damaging gusts. ..Jewell.. 12/09/2023 Read more View the full article

WW 0714 Status Updates STATUS FOR WATCH 0714 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more View the full article

WW 0714 Status Updates STATUS FOR WATCH 0714 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more View the full article

WW 714 TORNADO AR KY MS TN 091735Z - 100100Z URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 714 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southeast Arkansas Western and Central Kentucky Northern Mississippi Western and Middle Tennessee * Effective this Saturday morning and evening from 1135 AM until 700 PM CST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to develop and increase through early afternoon near an eastward-moving cold front, with additional/more isolated development also possible ahead of it later this afternoon. Increasingly low-level moisture and strong shear will support the potential for severe storms including a few tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles north of Bowling Green KY to 5 miles east southeast of Monticello AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 24040. ...Guyer Read more View the full article

WW 714 TORNADO AR KY MS TN 091735Z - 100100Z URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 714 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southeast Arkansas Western and Central Kentucky Northern Mississippi Western and Middle Tennessee * Effective this Saturday morning and evening from 1135 AM until 700 PM CST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to develop and increase through early afternoon near an eastward-moving cold front, with additional/more isolated development also possible ahead of it later this afternoon. Increasingly low-level moisture and strong shear will support the potential for severe storms including a few tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles north of Bowling Green KY to 5 miles east southeast of Monticello AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 24040. ...Guyer Read more View the full article

MD 2304 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHERN/EASTERN AR...WESTERN KY...WESTERN/MIDDLE TN...NORTHERN MS...NORTHWEST AL Mesoscale Discussion 2304 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1050 AM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Areas affected...Southern/eastern AR...western KY...western/middle TN...northern MS...northwest AL Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 091650Z - 091845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat will increase with time, with all severe hazards becoming possible by this afternoon. Eventual watch issuance is likely. DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms from northeast AR into southwest KY has intensified somewhat over the last 1-2 hours. This convection is likely somewhat elevated, given its relatively fast motion to the northeast and the currently stable appearance boundary-layer clouds on visible satellite across the warm sector to the immediate south. However, MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, relatively cold temperatures aloft, and favorable deep-layer shear could support an isolated short-term hail threat with the strongest elevated storms. Gradual diurnal heating of an increasingly moist warm sector will continue to remove remaining MLCINH through the morning, with an increase in surface-based storm development expected by midday to early afternoon. MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg (greater with southwest extent) and effective shear of 50-60 kt will support organized convection. The environment will support the development and sustenance of supercells, though deep-layer flow largely parallel to the approaching cold front may result in a complex storm mode, with both linear and embedded cellular elements. There will be a tendency for stronger low-level flow to gradually weaken from the southwest with time, but low-level shear/SRH will remain sufficient to support a tornado threat with any sustained supercells later this afternoon. Otherwise, large hail will remain a threat, and damaging-wind potential will become an increasing concern as storm coverage increases. Eventual watch issuance is likely by early afternoon, and perhaps sooner if ongoing attempts at initiation over central AR begin to mature late this morning. ..Dean/Guyer.. 12/09/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK... SHV... LAT...LON 33109228 33369292 33739318 34019295 35099107 36788831 37248713 37258625 36838569 36198571 35438616 34358762 33928845 33358968 33299019 33169083 33139148 33109228 Read more View the full article

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required. Latest surface observations within the southern CA coastal ranges show areas of elevated to critical fire weather conditions with winds gusting between 25-50 mph and RH in the upper teens and low 20s. Such conditions will likely persist through tonight and into early Sunday morning. Across southern TX, dry conditions are noted in recent observations with a gradual increase in winds still likely this afternoon. See the previous discussion below for additional information. ..Moore.. 12/09/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 PM CST Fri Dec 08 2023/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will amplify as it moves into the Southeast today. This will push a cold front through the Plains to near the Appalachians. Surface high pressure will increase within the Great Basin and Four Corners regions. ...Southern California... Offshore winds will likely be maximized early this morning. Winds of 20-25 mph (with higher gusts) will overlap with at least marginally reduced RH. RH values will fall to near 10-15% in some locations by the afternoon. Winds will slowly lose some intensity with time, but should remain 15-20 mph for several hours. Lower elevation fuels will be the primary driver of fire spread. However, these fine fuels are only marginally dry at present. Elevated fire weather concerns are possible where these fuels are driest. ...Texas... Elevated fire weather is possible within part of the Permian Basin into the Edwards Plateau. Post-frontal winds will be 15-20 mph amid 15-20% RH. Locally lower RH could occur where a greater downsloping wind component exists. Fine fuels are marginally dry and will support a low-end threat for a large fire. Cold advection will tend to limit the fire weather threat, particularly farther north, as RH will likely remain above critical thresholds in those areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required. Latest surface observations within the southern CA coastal ranges show areas of elevated to critical fire weather conditions with winds gusting between 25-50 mph and RH in the upper teens and low 20s. Such conditions will likely persist through tonight and into early Sunday morning. Across southern TX, dry conditions are noted in recent observations with a gradual increase in winds still likely this afternoon. See the previous discussion below for additional information. ..Moore.. 12/09/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 PM CST Fri Dec 08 2023/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will amplify as it moves into the Southeast today. This will push a cold front through the Plains to near the Appalachians. Surface high pressure will increase within the Great Basin and Four Corners regions. ...Southern California... Offshore winds will likely be maximized early this morning. Winds of 20-25 mph (with higher gusts) will overlap with at least marginally reduced RH. RH values will fall to near 10-15% in some locations by the afternoon. Winds will slowly lose some intensity with time, but should remain 15-20 mph for several hours. Lower elevation fuels will be the primary driver of fire spread. However, these fine fuels are only marginally dry at present. Elevated fire weather concerns are possible where these fuels are driest. ...Texas... Elevated fire weather is possible within part of the Permian Basin into the Edwards Plateau. Post-frontal winds will be 15-20 mph amid 15-20% RH. Locally lower RH could occur where a greater downsloping wind component exists. Fine fuels are marginally dry and will support a low-end threat for a large fire. Cold advection will tend to limit the fire weather threat, particularly farther north, as RH will likely remain above critical thresholds in those areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required. Latest surface observations within the southern CA coastal ranges show areas of elevated to critical fire weather conditions with winds gusting between 25-50 mph and RH in the upper teens and low 20s. Such conditions will likely persist through tonight and into early Sunday morning. Across southern TX, dry conditions are noted in recent observations with a gradual increase in winds still likely this afternoon. See the previous discussion below for additional information. ..Moore.. 12/09/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 PM CST Fri Dec 08 2023/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will amplify as it moves into the Southeast today. This will push a cold front through the Plains to near the Appalachians. Surface high pressure will increase within the Great Basin and Four Corners regions. ...Southern California... Offshore winds will likely be maximized early this morning. Winds of 20-25 mph (with higher gusts) will overlap with at least marginally reduced RH. RH values will fall to near 10-15% in some locations by the afternoon. Winds will slowly lose some intensity with time, but should remain 15-20 mph for several hours. Lower elevation fuels will be the primary driver of fire spread. However, these fine fuels are only marginally dry at present. Elevated fire weather concerns are possible where these fuels are driest. ...Texas... Elevated fire weather is possible within part of the Permian Basin into the Edwards Plateau. Post-frontal winds will be 15-20 mph amid 15-20% RH. Locally lower RH could occur where a greater downsloping wind component exists. Fine fuels are marginally dry and will support a low-end threat for a large fire. Cold advection will tend to limit the fire weather threat, particularly farther north, as RH will likely remain above critical thresholds in those areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...GULF COAST...TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, damaging thunderstorm wind gusts, and isolated severe hail are possible today and tonight from portions of the Ohio Valley southward to the Lower Mississippi Valley and middle Gulf Coast. ...Gulf Coast/Lower Mississippi Valley/Tennessee Valley... Region is being increasingly influenced by height falls but otherwise resides between larger scale influences of an upper trough over the Upper Midwest and a positive-tilt trough over the southern High Plains. Increasing warm-sector moisture (generally lower to some middle 60s F surface dewpoints) ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front, along with considerable deep-layer/low-level shear, will be favorable factors for a long-duration severe risk through the afternoon into tonight. However, the likelihood of a complex/mixed quasi-linear convective mode casts uncertainty regarding the magnitude of the severe risk, particularly regarding a supercell-related sustained/focused tornado risk. It is also noted that some guidance suggests that 1-3km AGL winds may somewhat weaken by late afternoon/early evening within the warm sector, while noting SRH will still remain favorable for rotating/severe storms. Storms should continue to increase in coverage through early afternoon, initially near the front across Arkansas northeastward into western portions of Tennessee/Kentucky. Sufficiently steep mid-level lapse rates will support some hail potential, especially the first part of the day, but the tendency for storm clustering will otherwise limit this overall potential, as well as limiting prospects for more consequential hail magnitudes. As the boundary layer warms this afternoon, the potential for initially semi-discrete supercells will increase along with related damaging wind risk as well as tornado potential, which will persist through the afternoon/evening even with a quasi-linear convective mode. As warm-sector inhibition further weakens later this afternoon, additional deepening convection may develop within weak pre-frontal convergence/confluence regime, mainly across Mississippi into Alabama, with this development eventually merging with or taking over as the main convective band this evening. Similarly, pre-frontal confluence may support isolated supercellular development along the Gulf Coast/Florida Panhandle vicinity through late night hours/early Sunday, within a somewhat separate regime capable of a few severe storms. ..Guyer/Weinman.. 12/09/2023 Read more View the full article

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...GULF COAST...TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, damaging thunderstorm wind gusts, and isolated severe hail are possible today and tonight from portions of the Ohio Valley southward to the Lower Mississippi Valley and middle Gulf Coast. ...Gulf Coast/Lower Mississippi Valley/Tennessee Valley... Region is being increasingly influenced by height falls but otherwise resides between larger scale influences of an upper trough over the Upper Midwest and a positive-tilt trough over the southern High Plains. Increasing warm-sector moisture (generally lower to some middle 60s F surface dewpoints) ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front, along with considerable deep-layer/low-level shear, will be favorable factors for a long-duration severe risk through the afternoon into tonight. However, the likelihood of a complex/mixed quasi-linear convective mode casts uncertainty regarding the magnitude of the severe risk, particularly regarding a supercell-related sustained/focused tornado risk. It is also noted that some guidance suggests that 1-3km AGL winds may somewhat weaken by late afternoon/early evening within the warm sector, while noting SRH will still remain favorable for rotating/severe storms. Storms should continue to increase in coverage through early afternoon, initially near the front across Arkansas northeastward into western portions of Tennessee/Kentucky. Sufficiently steep mid-level lapse rates will support some hail potential, especially the first part of the day, but the tendency for storm clustering will otherwise limit this overall potential, as well as limiting prospects for more consequential hail magnitudes. As the boundary layer warms this afternoon, the potential for initially semi-discrete supercells will increase along with related damaging wind risk as well as tornado potential, which will persist through the afternoon/evening even with a quasi-linear convective mode. As warm-sector inhibition further weakens later this afternoon, additional deepening convection may develop within weak pre-frontal convergence/confluence regime, mainly across Mississippi into Alabama, with this development eventually merging with or taking over as the main convective band this evening. Similarly, pre-frontal confluence may support isolated supercellular development along the Gulf Coast/Florida Panhandle vicinity through late night hours/early Sunday, within a somewhat separate regime capable of a few severe storms. ..Guyer/Weinman.. 12/09/2023 Read more View the full article

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...GULF COAST...TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, damaging thunderstorm wind gusts, and isolated severe hail are possible today and tonight from portions of the Ohio Valley southward to the Lower Mississippi Valley and middle Gulf Coast. ...Gulf Coast/Lower Mississippi Valley/Tennessee Valley... Region is being increasingly influenced by height falls but otherwise resides between larger scale influences of an upper trough over the Upper Midwest and a positive-tilt trough over the southern High Plains. Increasing warm-sector moisture (generally lower to some middle 60s F surface dewpoints) ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front, along with considerable deep-layer/low-level shear, will be favorable factors for a long-duration severe risk through the afternoon into tonight. However, the likelihood of a complex/mixed quasi-linear convective mode casts uncertainty regarding the magnitude of the severe risk, particularly regarding a supercell-related sustained/focused tornado risk. It is also noted that some guidance suggests that 1-3km AGL winds may somewhat weaken by late afternoon/early evening within the warm sector, while noting SRH will still remain favorable for rotating/severe storms. Storms should continue to increase in coverage through early afternoon, initially near the front across Arkansas northeastward into western portions of Tennessee/Kentucky. Sufficiently steep mid-level lapse rates will support some hail potential, especially the first part of the day, but the tendency for storm clustering will otherwise limit this overall potential, as well as limiting prospects for more consequential hail magnitudes. As the boundary layer warms this afternoon, the potential for initially semi-discrete supercells will increase along with related damaging wind risk as well as tornado potential, which will persist through the afternoon/evening even with a quasi-linear convective mode. As warm-sector inhibition further weakens later this afternoon, additional deepening convection may develop within weak pre-frontal convergence/confluence regime, mainly across Mississippi into Alabama, with this development eventually merging with or taking over as the main convective band this evening. Similarly, pre-frontal confluence may support isolated supercellular development along the Gulf Coast/Florida Panhandle vicinity through late night hours/early Sunday, within a somewhat separate regime capable of a few severe storms. ..Guyer/Weinman.. 12/09/2023 Read more View the full article