NorthGeorgiaWX

WW 716 TORNADO AL AR LA MS 092155Z - 100600Z URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 716 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 355 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Western Alabama Southeast Arkansas Northeast Louisiana Mississippi * Effective this Saturday afternoon from 355 PM until Midnight CST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Severe storm risk including the potential for damaging winds and some tornadoes will increase through the evening, with the risk potentially continuing into the overnight. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 95 statute miles east and west of a line from Tupelo MS to 25 miles southeast of Natchez MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 714...WW 715... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Guyer Read more View the full article

WW 716 TORNADO AL AR LA MS 092155Z - 100600Z URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 716 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 355 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Western Alabama Southeast Arkansas Northeast Louisiana Mississippi * Effective this Saturday afternoon from 355 PM until Midnight CST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Severe storm risk including the potential for damaging winds and some tornadoes will increase through the evening, with the risk potentially continuing into the overnight. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 95 statute miles east and west of a line from Tupelo MS to 25 miles southeast of Natchez MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 714...WW 715... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Guyer Read more View the full article

MD 2310 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 715... FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...EXTREME NORTHWEST ALABAMA...MIDDLE TENNESSEE Mesoscale Discussion 2310 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0503 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Areas affected...portions of extreme northeast Mississippi...extreme northwest Alabama...middle Tennessee Concerning...Tornado Watch 715... Valid 092303Z - 100030Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 715 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watch 715. All severe hazards remain possible into the evening. A locally higher tornado threat may materialize along or just north of the TN/AL border if discrete, dominant supercells can develop. DISCUSSION...A mix of embedded supercells and linear storm modes persist ahead of a cold front across middle TN into northern MS. These storms are approaching the eastern most bounds of Tornado Watch 714 and are entering Tornado Watch 715. Ahead of the ongoing band of storms, discrete convection is trying to mature, with a supercell structure trying to materialize in the Tishomingo County, MS area. The northeast extent of the better surface-based instability extends into middle TN to extreme northwest AL area, where mesoanalysis has shown an appreciable increase in the size and curvature of low-level hodographs (with effective SRH approaching 300 m2/s2 in spots). As such, any discrete storms that can mature into sustained supercells may support a locally higher tornado threat, and a strong tornado cannot be completely ruled out. ..Squitieri.. 12/09/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG... LAT...LON 34308901 36178665 37378515 37418452 37108429 36298485 35448561 34838624 34498678 34318764 34308901 Read more View the full article

One page I almost forgot about, is my Winter Temperature Anomaly page. I went back through the NOAA/NCEI U.S. Climate Division Data: Plotting and Analysis page, and generated winter temperature anomalies back to 1900. US Winter Temperature Anomalies WWW.DACULAWEATHER.COM US Winter Temperature Anomalies The page you land on is for the 1900 decade, and the first four images are a summary of the DFM winter months from 1900 to 1909. The next section below that is the yearly DJF temperature anomalies, so DJM 1900-1901, DJM 1901-1092, etc. All temperatures are in F. At the menu at the top, you'll see, three months, and on those pages, I have the anomaly for each month (DJF) for every decade.

MD 2309 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR FAR EASTERN TEXAS INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN LOUISIANA Mesoscale Discussion 2309 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0442 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Areas affected...Far eastern Texas into central/northern Louisiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 092242Z - 100015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Storms will pose a risk of large hail and damaging winds into the evening. The tornado threat is expected to be more marginal. A small severe thunderstorm watch may be needed depending on convective trends in the next hour. DISCUSSION...A few discrete storms have formed along the cold front in far eastern Texas and west-central Louisiana. The strongest storm in Natchitoches Parish has exhibited supercell characteristics with a TBSS on KSHV/KPOE radars indicating potential for large hail. The 18Z LCH sounding showed some cooling aloft and modest erosion of a inversion around 800 mb. That warm layer aloft may hinder updrafts until stronger forcing arrives later his evening. The greatest threat for large hail will likely be over the next few hours when storms are more discrete. Storm coverage will increase and the mode will become more linear with time as the synoptic trough digs into the Southeast this evening/overnight. At that time, damaging winds would become the primary threat. Potential for tornadoes should remain more limited with low-level shear and hodograph curvature being rather modest per area VAD profiles. A small severe thunderstorm watch may need to be considered, but coverage and intensity may not increase until storms move farther east. Trends will be monitored. ..Wendt/Goss.. 12/09/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV... LAT...LON 30299404 30419443 30839455 31719415 32419314 32749260 32699236 32219211 31109213 30729240 30429305 30279397 30299404 Read more View the full article

MD 2308 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 714...715... FOR PARTS OF MIDDLE TN Mesoscale Discussion 2308 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0415 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Areas affected...Parts of middle TN Concerning...Tornado Watch 714...715... Valid 092215Z - 092345Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 714, 715 continues. SUMMARY...A short-term tornado threat continues with ongoing supercells. DISCUSSION...At 2215 UTC, long-lived supercells are ongoing north and west of Nashville, within an environment characterized by modest instability but favorable low-level and deep-layer shear. Recent VWPs from KOHX depict 0-1 km SRH of greater than 200 m2/s2, which will continue to support a tornado threat for as long as instability remains sufficient. While an increase in storm coverage and tendency toward more of a linear mode is expected with time, the ongoing supercells are sufficiently ahead of the cold front to remain relatively discrete in the short term as they move quickly east-northeastward across northern middle TN. ..Dean.. 12/09/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX... LAT...LON 35898784 36358699 36688679 36668616 36058628 35588667 35548721 35638761 35818784 35898784 Read more View the full article

WW 0714 Status Updates STATUS REPORT ON WW 714 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE LLQ TO 20 N UOX TO 50 ENE MKL TO 45 S SDF. ..SQUITIERI..12/09/23 ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...LMK...PAH...JAN...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 714 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC041-092340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DESHA KYC003-009-061-087-093-099-123-141-169-171-213-227-092340- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BARREN EDMONSON GREEN HARDIN HART LARUE LOGAN METCALFE MONROE SIMPSON WARREN MSC003-009-011-071-093-107-117-139-141-145-092340- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALCORN BENTON BOLIVAR Read more View the full article

WW 0714 Status Updates STATUS REPORT ON WW 714 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE LLQ TO 20 N UOX TO 50 ENE MKL TO 45 S SDF. ..SQUITIERI..12/09/23 ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...LMK...PAH...JAN...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 714 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC041-092340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DESHA KYC003-009-061-087-093-099-123-141-169-171-213-227-092340- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BARREN EDMONSON GREEN HARDIN HART LARUE LOGAN METCALFE MONROE SIMPSON WARREN MSC003-009-011-071-093-107-117-139-141-145-092340- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALCORN BENTON BOLIVAR Read more View the full article

WW 0716 Status Updates STATUS FOR WATCH 0716 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more View the full article

WW 0716 Status Updates STATUS FOR WATCH 0716 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more View the full article

WW 716 TORNADO AL AR LA MS 092155Z - 100600Z URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 716 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 355 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Western Alabama Southeast Arkansas Northeast Louisiana Mississippi * Effective this Saturday afternoon from 355 PM until Midnight CST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Severe storm risk including the potential for damaging winds and some tornadoes will increase through the evening, with the risk potentially continuing into the overnight. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 95 statute miles east and west of a line from Tupelo MS to 25 miles southeast of Natchez MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 714...WW 715... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Guyer Read more View the full article

WW 716 TORNADO AL AR LA MS 092155Z - 100600Z URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 716 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 355 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Western Alabama Southeast Arkansas Northeast Louisiana Mississippi * Effective this Saturday afternoon from 355 PM until Midnight CST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Severe storm risk including the potential for damaging winds and some tornadoes will increase through the evening, with the risk potentially continuing into the overnight. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 95 statute miles east and west of a line from Tupelo MS to 25 miles southeast of Natchez MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 714...WW 715... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Guyer Read more View the full article

WW 0715 Status Updates STATUS FOR WATCH 0715 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more View the full article

WW 0715 Status Updates STATUS FOR WATCH 0715 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more View the full article

WW 0715 Status Updates STATUS FOR WATCH 0715 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more View the full article

WW 715 TORNADO AL KY TN 092120Z - 100500Z URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 715 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 320 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northern Alabama Southern Kentucky Middle Tennessee * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 320 PM until 1100 PM CST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms including a few long-lived supercells will move across the region late this afternoon and evening, with the potential for all severe hazards including a few tornadoes as well as damaging winds and some hail. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles northwest of London KY to 30 miles south southeast of Muscle Shoals AL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 714... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 24040. ...Guyer Read more View the full article

WW 715 TORNADO AL KY TN 092120Z - 100500Z URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 715 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 320 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northern Alabama Southern Kentucky Middle Tennessee * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 320 PM until 1100 PM CST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms including a few long-lived supercells will move across the region late this afternoon and evening, with the potential for all severe hazards including a few tornadoes as well as damaging winds and some hail. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles northwest of London KY to 30 miles south southeast of Muscle Shoals AL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 714... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 24040. ...Guyer Read more View the full article

WW 0714 Status Updates STATUS REPORT ON WW 714 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW LLQ TO 40 NNW GLH TO 20 NE MKL TO 20 NE CKV TO 45 NNE BWG. ..SQUITIERI..12/09/23 ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...LMK...PAH...JAN...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 714 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC011-041-043-092240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRADLEY DESHA DREW KYC003-009-061-087-093-099-123-141-169-171-213-219-227-092240- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BARREN EDMONSON GREEN HARDIN HART LARUE LOGAN METCALFE MONROE SIMPSON TODD WARREN MSC003-009-011-033-071-093-107-117-119-137-139-141-145-092240- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more View the full article

WW 0714 Status Updates STATUS REPORT ON WW 714 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW LLQ TO 40 NNW GLH TO 20 NE MKL TO 20 NE CKV TO 45 NNE BWG. ..SQUITIERI..12/09/23 ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...LMK...PAH...JAN...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 714 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC011-041-043-092240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRADLEY DESHA DREW KYC003-009-061-087-093-099-123-141-169-171-213-219-227-092240- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BARREN EDMONSON GREEN HARDIN HART LARUE LOGAN METCALFE MONROE SIMPSON TODD WARREN MSC003-009-011-033-071-093-107-117-119-137-139-141-145-092240- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more View the full article

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z Fire weather concerns will be limited through the extended period. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably good agreement in the development of persistent surface high pressure over much of the country during the upcoming work week. A cooler continental air mass overspreading the country in the wake of this weekend's cold front across the eastern CONUS, combined with weak pressure gradient winds, should limit fire weather potential. Localized concerns may materialize across southern CA into the lower CO River Valley where the probability for wetting precipitation will remain low through next weekend. The passage of a weak mid-level disturbance around D5/Wed into D6/Thur may support offshore flow along the southern CA coast with an attendant risk of dry/breezy conditions (though confidence in a robust fire weather threat remains limited at this range). ..Moore.. 12/09/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z Fire weather concerns will be limited through the extended period. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably good agreement in the development of persistent surface high pressure over much of the country during the upcoming work week. A cooler continental air mass overspreading the country in the wake of this weekend's cold front across the eastern CONUS, combined with weak pressure gradient winds, should limit fire weather potential. Localized concerns may materialize across southern CA into the lower CO River Valley where the probability for wetting precipitation will remain low through next weekend. The passage of a weak mid-level disturbance around D5/Wed into D6/Thur may support offshore flow along the southern CA coast with an attendant risk of dry/breezy conditions (though confidence in a robust fire weather threat remains limited at this range). ..Moore.. 12/09/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z Fire weather concerns will be limited through the extended period. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably good agreement in the development of persistent surface high pressure over much of the country during the upcoming work week. A cooler continental air mass overspreading the country in the wake of this weekend's cold front across the eastern CONUS, combined with weak pressure gradient winds, should limit fire weather potential. Localized concerns may materialize across southern CA into the lower CO River Valley where the probability for wetting precipitation will remain low through next weekend. The passage of a weak mid-level disturbance around D5/Wed into D6/Thur may support offshore flow along the southern CA coast with an attendant risk of dry/breezy conditions (though confidence in a robust fire weather threat remains limited at this range). ..Moore.. 12/09/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

MD 2307 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN LA...CENTRAL MS...AND FAR WESTERN AL Mesoscale Discussion 2307 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Areas affected...Portions of eastern LA...central MS...and far western AL Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 092100Z - 092300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The risk of severe storms capable of all hazards will increase during the next few hours. A Tornado Watch is likely in the next hour. DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery shows continued heating/destabilization of a moist boundary layer across portions of eastern LA into central MS -- ahead of an east-southeastward moving cold front extending from northwest MS southwestward into northern LA. Additionally, a northeast/southwest-oriented differential heating zone is evident from central MS into LA. Thunderstorm development is expected along the front during the next few hours, as midlevel height falls overspread the frontal zone amid continued warm-sector destabilization. A linear mode is expected along/immediately ahead of the front given largely front-parallel deep-layer flow/shear, with an associated severe-wind threat. However, current indications are that a weak frontal wave may develop northeastward along the frontal zone this evening, yielding a modest low-level mass response and increasing low-level hodograph size/curvature. This could promote embedded supercell structures and a tornado risk. This threat will gradually spread eastward along the cold front into the late evening hours. Additional storm development is possible ahead of the cold front in the vicinity of the differential heating boundary across central MS, and these storms would likely remain more discrete given weaker forcing. 40-50 kt of effective shear will favor supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, and some tornado threat. Overall, confidence in the development of sustained/persistent discrete/semi-discrete supercells is low given lingering capping and the weak forcing for ascent. A Tornado Watch is likely in the next hour for much of the area. ..Weinman/Guyer.. 12/09/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MEG...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... LAT...LON 30849217 30799165 30919094 31288985 31818905 32548827 33168775 33748760 34058783 34268827 34308876 34158939 33709066 32999214 32589270 32029295 31569299 31079271 30849217 Read more View the full article

MD 2306 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHERN AL INTO MIDDLE/EASTERN TN AND EASTERN KY Mesoscale Discussion 2306 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Areas affected...Northern AL into middle/eastern TN and eastern KY Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 092045Z - 092215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat will increase as storms approach from the west. Tornado Watch issuance is likely by 3-4 PM CST. DISCUSSION...A broken line of supercells is currently ongoing from southern KY into western TN and northwest MS. While instability is currently quite limited from eastern TN into southeast KY, some moistening/destabilization is expected with time through late afternoon, aided by rather strong southwesterly low-level flow above the surface. With longer-lived supercells already ongoing, organized convection may spread eastward even as the environment becomes somewhat less favorable, with a continued threat of a couple tornadoes and locally damaging wind. In addition to ongoing convection, additional development is possible ahead of the approaching cold front across parts of northern AL into southern middle TN, as a low-level warm advection regime gradually increases into this evening. Supercells may evolve out of this activity as well, with an attendant threat of all severe hazards. Given the concerns described above, Tornado Watch issuance is likely for parts of the region by 3-4 PM CST. ..Dean/Guyer.. 12/09/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...HUN... LAT...LON 34468794 34838770 35668610 37558491 37698475 37728440 37548402 37438395 37148407 36618437 35838485 34948574 34358634 34468794 Read more View the full article

WW 0714 Status Updates STATUS REPORT ON WW 714 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE ELD TO 60 WSW MEM TO 30 NNE MKL TO 20 NNE HOP TO 15 SSW OWB. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2305 ..SQUITIERI..12/09/23 ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...LMK...PAH...JAN...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 714 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-011-041-043-079-107-092140- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS BRADLEY DESHA DREW LINCOLN PHILLIPS KYC003-009-031-061-085-087-093-099-123-141-169-171-177-183-213- 219-227-092140- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BARREN BUTLER EDMONSON GRAYSON GREEN HARDIN HART LARUE LOGAN METCALFE MONROE MUHLENBERG OHIO SIMPSON TODD WARREN Read more View the full article