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WW 721 TORNADO NC VA CW 101830Z - 110100Z URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 721 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 130 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central and Eastern North Carolina Southeast Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 130 PM until 800 PM EST. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible SUMMARY...A moist environment and stronger deep-layer/low-level winds will support a long duration (into this evening) of at least isolated severe storm potential, including a risk for tornadoes and damaging winds. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles northwest of Norfolk VA to 20 miles west of Jacksonville NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 720... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 22040. ...Guyer Read more View the full article

WW 721 TORNADO NC VA CW 101830Z - 110100Z URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 721 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 130 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central and Eastern North Carolina Southeast Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 130 PM until 800 PM EST. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible SUMMARY...A moist environment and stronger deep-layer/low-level winds will support a long duration (into this evening) of at least isolated severe storm potential, including a risk for tornadoes and damaging winds. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles northwest of Norfolk VA to 20 miles west of Jacksonville NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 720... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 22040. ...Guyer Read more View the full article

Special Weather Statement issued December 10 at 6:59PM EST by NWSView the full article

Lake Wind Advisory issued December 10 at 5:45PM EST until December 11 at 1:00AM EST by NWSView the full article

Special Weather Statement issued December 10 at 5:44PM EST by NWSView the full article

Special Weather Statement issued December 10 at 5:44PM EST by NWSView the full article

MD 2329 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 721... FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA Mesoscale Discussion 2329 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Areas affected...Portions of southeastern Virginia and eastern North Carolina Concerning...Tornado Watch 721... Valid 102153Z - 102330Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 721 continues. SUMMARY...A localized severe threat continues across portions of Tornado Watch 721. DISCUSSION...Latest observational data suggests two main corridors that remain at least locally favorable for severe thunderstorms across Tornado Watch 721. Off the Carolinas coast, a band of showers and thunderstorms driven by low/midlevel warm advection are streaming northward toward coastal NC, and some of these storms have exhibited transient organization given ample low/deep-layer shear. While instability over land is marginal, there is still some potential that this activity could affect immediate coast areas and pose a brief tornado risk and/or damaging-wind threat. Farther north from north-central NC into southeast VA, the AKQ VWP is sampling 50 kt near 1 km AGL, which is yielding strong low-level shear with ample low-level hodograph curvature. Similarly, weak instability has generally limited updraft strength, though subtle backing of the low-level flow and substantial pressure falls may provide some focus for thunderstorms into the evening. If any storms can root at the surface, a tornado cannot be ruled out. ..Weinman.. 12/10/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM... LAT...LON 34417734 34547787 34797820 35577832 37237781 37697742 37737707 37617653 37047598 36137576 35397598 34897616 34597655 34417734 Read more View the full article

MD 2328 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 720... FOR PARTS OF NORTH INTO WEST-CENTRAL FL Mesoscale Discussion 2328 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Areas affected...Parts of north into west-central FL Concerning...Tornado Watch 720... Valid 102151Z - 102315Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 720 continues. SUMMARY...Some threat for locally damaging wind and/or a brief tornado may persist through the remainder of the afternoon, but additional watch issuance is considered unlikely. DISCUSSION...An extensive band of convection has moved through north into west-central Florida this afternoon. Storms have largely remained subsevere thus far, with maximum wind gusts generally in the 40-45 mph range. Deep-layer shear remains strong across the region, and short-term guidance and the recent VWPs from KTBW suggest there has been some increase in southwesterly low-level flow. However, satellite and lightning trends indicate a general decrease in storm intensity over the last hour. With stronger large-scale ascent expected generally remain west and north of the region, and limited potential for any additional destabilization, substantial reintensification appears unlikely. The strongest storms may pose a threat of isolated damaging wind and perhaps a brief tornado through the remainder of the afternoon, but with the threat expected to remain generally marginal and isolated, additional watch issuance is unlikely after the 22 UTC expiration of WW 720. ..Dean/Guyer.. 12/10/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX... LAT...LON 29228271 29618212 29408174 28488161 27688165 27308167 26898180 26708232 27158240 27648249 28058256 28848270 29228271 Read more View the full article

Severe Weather Statement issued December 10 at 4:31PM EST by NWSView the full article

WW 0720 Status Updates STATUS REPORT ON WW 720 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW OCF TO 30 SSE CTY TO 10 W GNV TO 25 E GNV. WW 720 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 102200Z. ..SQUITIERI..12/10/23 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 720 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC001-017-053-083-101-119-102200- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALACHUA CITRUS HERNANDO MARION PASCO SUMTER GMZ850-102200- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more View the full article

WW 0720 Status Updates STATUS REPORT ON WW 720 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW OCF TO 30 SSE CTY TO 10 W GNV TO 25 E GNV. WW 720 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 102200Z. ..SQUITIERI..12/10/23 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 720 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC001-017-053-083-101-119-102200- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALACHUA CITRUS HERNANDO MARION PASCO SUMTER GMZ850-102200- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more View the full article

WW 0720 Status Updates STATUS REPORT ON WW 720 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW OCF TO 30 SSE CTY TO 10 W GNV TO 25 E GNV. WW 720 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 102200Z. ..SQUITIERI..12/10/23 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 720 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC001-017-053-083-101-119-102200- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALACHUA CITRUS HERNANDO MARION PASCO SUMTER GMZ850-102200- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more View the full article

WW 0720 Status Updates STATUS REPORT ON WW 720 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW OCF TO 30 SSE CTY TO 10 W GNV TO 25 E GNV. WW 720 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 102200Z. ..SQUITIERI..12/10/23 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 720 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC001-017-053-083-101-119-102200- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALACHUA CITRUS HERNANDO MARION PASCO SUMTER GMZ850-102200- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more View the full article

WW 0720 Status Updates STATUS REPORT ON WW 720 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW OCF TO 30 SSE CTY TO 10 W GNV TO 25 E GNV. WW 720 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 102200Z. ..SQUITIERI..12/10/23 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 720 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC001-017-053-083-101-119-102200- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALACHUA CITRUS HERNANDO MARION PASCO SUMTER GMZ850-102200- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more View the full article

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Fire weather potential appears low through the extended period. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a strong signal for the development and maintenance of an unseasonably strong surface high across the eastern two-thirds of the country for much of the upcoming work week and into next weekend. This will favor cool conditions and weak gradient winds with low probability for widespread sustained winds over 20 mph. An upper disturbance approaching the Southwest/southern High Plains may support areas of breezy conditions around mid-week, but increasing rain chances should limit fire weather concerns. An offshore flow regime is likely late D3/Tuesday into D5/Thursday along the southern CA coast as the aforementioned upper wave shifts into the Southwest. However, long-range ensembles continue to show only a modest signal for strong low to mid-level winds, which limits confidence in the magnitude of the offshore flow regime. While localized fire weather concerns are possible, confidence remains too low to introduce highlights. ..Moore.. 12/10/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Fire weather potential appears low through the extended period. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a strong signal for the development and maintenance of an unseasonably strong surface high across the eastern two-thirds of the country for much of the upcoming work week and into next weekend. This will favor cool conditions and weak gradient winds with low probability for widespread sustained winds over 20 mph. An upper disturbance approaching the Southwest/southern High Plains may support areas of breezy conditions around mid-week, but increasing rain chances should limit fire weather concerns. An offshore flow regime is likely late D3/Tuesday into D5/Thursday along the southern CA coast as the aforementioned upper wave shifts into the Southwest. However, long-range ensembles continue to show only a modest signal for strong low to mid-level winds, which limits confidence in the magnitude of the offshore flow regime. While localized fire weather concerns are possible, confidence remains too low to introduce highlights. ..Moore.. 12/10/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

WW 0720 Status Updates STATUS REPORT ON WW 720 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSW CTY TO 15 SSE CTY TO 15 WSW JAX. ..SQUITIERI..12/10/23 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 720 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC001-007-017-053-075-083-101-119-125-102140- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALACHUA BRADFORD CITRUS HERNANDO LEVY MARION PASCO SUMTER UNION GMZ850-102140- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more View the full article

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...AND OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Damaging wind gusts and a couple brief tornadoes remain possible over eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia, and over portions of the northwestern Florida Peninsula. ...Western/Northern FL into eastern NC/VA... An expansive area of moisture and modest instability remains in place ahead of a cold front and beneath strong meridional flow aloft. For southern areas, a line of storms may pose a damaging wind threat by virtue of mixing stronger winds to the surface, and a brief/weak tornado cannot be ruled out there especially over western parts of the Peninsula. To the north, a more favorable area for tornadoes exists from eastern NC into southeast VA, where VWPs indicate stronger than forecast 0-1 SRH of 200-300 m2/s2, with subtle boundary layer warming noted along with surface pressure falls. As such, any supercell may produce a brief tornado in this area over the next few hours. ..Jewell.. 12/10/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1035 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023/ ...Northern/central Florida into southeast Georgia... A quasi-linear band of strong to occasionally severe storms has persisted into midday from the northeast Gulf of Mexico into northern Florida and far southern Georgia. Destabilization will likely remain muted particularly with northern extent into/across southern Georgia, but some cloud breaks with somewhat stronger heating is occurring across the central into northern Florida Peninsula. Short-term guidance advertises a restrengthening of southwesterly winds in the lowest 2-3 km AGL through the afternoon, which will allow a continuance of well-organized/mostly quasi-linear storm structures capable of a tornado and localized wind damage risk where modest destabilization occurs inland. See Mesoscale Discussion 2324 for additional short-term details. ...Carolinas/eastern Virginia... Although cloud cover remains prevalent through late morning, low-level moistening continues to occur with increasingly prevalent middle 60s F surface dewpoints near/east of the front near and parallel to the spine of the Appalachians at midday. Modest diurnal destabilization combined with strong deep-layer/low-level shear will support an increasing potential, at least on an isolated basis, for some severe storms through the afternoon. This would potentially include a few semi-discrete supercells/line segments capable of wind damage and a tornado risk, which could peak into late afternoon and persist through the evening given an advertised increase in low-level flow, prior to the front clearing the coast late tonight. Read more View the full article

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...AND OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Damaging wind gusts and a couple brief tornadoes remain possible over eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia, and over portions of the northwestern Florida Peninsula. ...Western/Northern FL into eastern NC/VA... An expansive area of moisture and modest instability remains in place ahead of a cold front and beneath strong meridional flow aloft. For southern areas, a line of storms may pose a damaging wind threat by virtue of mixing stronger winds to the surface, and a brief/weak tornado cannot be ruled out there especially over western parts of the Peninsula. To the north, a more favorable area for tornadoes exists from eastern NC into southeast VA, where VWPs indicate stronger than forecast 0-1 SRH of 200-300 m2/s2, with subtle boundary layer warming noted along with surface pressure falls. As such, any supercell may produce a brief tornado in this area over the next few hours. ..Jewell.. 12/10/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1035 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023/ ...Northern/central Florida into southeast Georgia... A quasi-linear band of strong to occasionally severe storms has persisted into midday from the northeast Gulf of Mexico into northern Florida and far southern Georgia. Destabilization will likely remain muted particularly with northern extent into/across southern Georgia, but some cloud breaks with somewhat stronger heating is occurring across the central into northern Florida Peninsula. Short-term guidance advertises a restrengthening of southwesterly winds in the lowest 2-3 km AGL through the afternoon, which will allow a continuance of well-organized/mostly quasi-linear storm structures capable of a tornado and localized wind damage risk where modest destabilization occurs inland. See Mesoscale Discussion 2324 for additional short-term details. ...Carolinas/eastern Virginia... Although cloud cover remains prevalent through late morning, low-level moistening continues to occur with increasingly prevalent middle 60s F surface dewpoints near/east of the front near and parallel to the spine of the Appalachians at midday. Modest diurnal destabilization combined with strong deep-layer/low-level shear will support an increasing potential, at least on an isolated basis, for some severe storms through the afternoon. This would potentially include a few semi-discrete supercells/line segments capable of wind damage and a tornado risk, which could peak into late afternoon and persist through the evening given an advertised increase in low-level flow, prior to the front clearing the coast late tonight. Read more View the full article

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...AND OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Damaging wind gusts and a couple brief tornadoes remain possible over eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia, and over portions of the northwestern Florida Peninsula. ...Western/Northern FL into eastern NC/VA... An expansive area of moisture and modest instability remains in place ahead of a cold front and beneath strong meridional flow aloft. For southern areas, a line of storms may pose a damaging wind threat by virtue of mixing stronger winds to the surface, and a brief/weak tornado cannot be ruled out there especially over western parts of the Peninsula. To the north, a more favorable area for tornadoes exists from eastern NC into southeast VA, where VWPs indicate stronger than forecast 0-1 SRH of 200-300 m2/s2, with subtle boundary layer warming noted along with surface pressure falls. As such, any supercell may produce a brief tornado in this area over the next few hours. ..Jewell.. 12/10/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1035 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023/ ...Northern/central Florida into southeast Georgia... A quasi-linear band of strong to occasionally severe storms has persisted into midday from the northeast Gulf of Mexico into northern Florida and far southern Georgia. Destabilization will likely remain muted particularly with northern extent into/across southern Georgia, but some cloud breaks with somewhat stronger heating is occurring across the central into northern Florida Peninsula. Short-term guidance advertises a restrengthening of southwesterly winds in the lowest 2-3 km AGL through the afternoon, which will allow a continuance of well-organized/mostly quasi-linear storm structures capable of a tornado and localized wind damage risk where modest destabilization occurs inland. See Mesoscale Discussion 2324 for additional short-term details. ...Carolinas/eastern Virginia... Although cloud cover remains prevalent through late morning, low-level moistening continues to occur with increasingly prevalent middle 60s F surface dewpoints near/east of the front near and parallel to the spine of the Appalachians at midday. Modest diurnal destabilization combined with strong deep-layer/low-level shear will support an increasing potential, at least on an isolated basis, for some severe storms through the afternoon. This would potentially include a few semi-discrete supercells/line segments capable of wind damage and a tornado risk, which could peak into late afternoon and persist through the evening given an advertised increase in low-level flow, prior to the front clearing the coast late tonight. Read more View the full article

Special Weather Statement issued December 10 at 2:57PM EST by NWSView the full article

Special Weather Statement issued December 10 at 2:43PM EST by NWSView the full article

MD 2327 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 720... FOR PARTS OF NORTH FL Mesoscale Discussion 2327 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Areas affected...Parts of north FL Concerning...Tornado Watch 720... Valid 101844Z - 102015Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 720 continues. SUMMARY...Some uptick in the severe threat is possible this afternoon, including the potential for locally damaging wind and a brief tornado or two. DISCUSSION...The northern portion of an extensive QLCS is moving across the northern FL Peninsula early this afternoon. The inland portion of this QLCS has recently remained subsevere, but some diurnal heating and steepening of low-level lapse rates through the afternoon may support an uptick in damaging-wind potential as the line continues to move eastward, especially as a stronger line segment noted west-northwest of Tampa eventually moves onshore. Also, some increase in low-level flow/shear is expected with time, in response to a shortwave trough quickly approaching the area from the west. This may support some threat for a brief, line-embedded tornado or two later this afternoon. Some local expansion of the watch may be needed later this afternoon, depending on the evolution of offshore convection and also the line segment currently noted west of Jacksonville. ..Dean/Guyer.. 12/10/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE... LAT...LON 27928337 28478338 29078355 29588352 30228303 30268292 30668266 30688224 30208197 29748202 29638208 28428237 27998271 27928337 Read more View the full article

MD 2326 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NC...NORTHEASTERN SC...AND SOUTHEAST VA Mesoscale Discussion 2326 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1205 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Areas affected...Portions of eastern NC...northeastern SC...and southeast VA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 101805Z - 102030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Monitoring portions of eastern NC, northeastern SC, and southeastern VA for a gradual increase in severe-storm potential this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Latest radar data across portions of eastern NC, northeastern SC, and the coastal waters indicates northward-moving clusters of mainly disorganized storms. This activity is likely being driven by low/midlevel warm advection and coastal convergence amid strong low-level south-southwesterly flow (per MHX/LTX VWP data). Through the afternoon, continued boundary-layer positive theta-e advection should destabilize the coastal air mass amid filtered diurnal heating in cloud breaks. The increasing surface-based instability (albeit weak), coupled with strengthening low/deep-layer shear -- characterized by increasingly large clockwise-turning low-level hodographs -- will favor a gradual increase in severe-storm potential through the afternoon. A couple tornadoes and damaging winds will be the main concerns. ..Weinman/Guyer.. 12/10/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM... LAT...LON 35047789 34717867 34387909 33997918 33677905 33617865 33747796 33987750 34587645 35127549 35917541 36497561 36767578 36867626 36807675 36307698 35577722 35047789 Read more View the full article

WW 721 TORNADO NC VA CW 101830Z - 110100Z URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 721 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 130 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central and Eastern North Carolina Southeast Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 130 PM until 800 PM EST. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible SUMMARY...A moist environment and stronger deep-layer/low-level winds will support a long duration (into this evening) of at least isolated severe storm potential, including a risk for tornadoes and damaging winds. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles northwest of Norfolk VA to 20 miles west of Jacksonville NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 720... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 22040. ...Guyer Read more View the full article