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This is an automated feed from the Storm Prediction Center that post the following products with images:
- Tornado/Severe Thunderstorm Watches - Watch number and the link to the watch page and watch status page if issued.
- Mesoscale Discussions - MD number, images, and link to page
- Convective Outlooks - Day 1, 2, 3, and 4-8
- Fire Weather Outlooks - 1,2, and 3-8
9,155 topics in this forum
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Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... A progressive upper pattern is expected in the extended, with several low-amplitude shortwave troughs forecast to traverse the CONUS. Lead shortwave in this series will likely be over the central Plains on D4/Saturday morning before then moving through the Mid MS Valley by late D4/Saturday and through the OH Valley on D5/Sunday. Another shortwave is expected to follow in the wake of the first, progressing across the Great Basin and Four Corners on D5/Sunday and the southern/central Plains on D6/Monday. This wave …
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Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... A progressive upper pattern is expected in the extended, with several low-amplitude shortwave troughs forecast to traverse the CONUS. Lead shortwave in this series will likely be over the central Plains on D4/Saturday morning before then moving through the Mid MS Valley by late D4/Saturday and through the OH Valley on D5/Sunday. Another shortwave is expected to follow in the wake of the first, progressing across the Great Basin and Four Corners on D5/Sunday and the southern/central Plains on D6/Monday. This wave …
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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon through early Saturday morning from the Middle Texas Coast into the Ozark Plateau. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A shortwave trough is forecast to begin the period over the Four Corners before then continuing eastward across the central Rockies and ending the period over the central Plains. An associated surface low is expected to move quickly northeastward just ahead of this shortwave, progressing from the north…
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Low-end fire weather potential is noted for Thursday across the southern Plains and parts of the Southwest, but unsupportive fuel conditions should moderate the overall fire weather threat. A cold continental air mass will continue to overspread the eastern CONUS in the wake of Wednesday's cold frontal passage with surface high pressure building from the upper MS River Valley into the Southeast states. Across the West, a more progressive, less-amplified upper regime will …
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Low-end fire weather potential is noted for Thursday across the southern Plains and parts of the Southwest, but unsupportive fuel conditions should moderate the overall fire weather threat. A cold continental air mass will continue to overspread the eastern CONUS in the wake of Wednesday's cold frontal passage with surface high pressure building from the upper MS River Valley into the Southeast states. Across the West, a more progressive, less-amplified upper regime will …
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected to persist along the southern CA coast through at least the morning hours today. A prolonged offshore wind event continues to wane along the southern CA coast, but 06 UTC surface observations continue to show areas of elevated to critical fire weather conditions within the higher coastal terrain. Multiple sites continue to report sustained offshore winds of 15-20 mph with frequent gusts of 25-35 mph. Additionally, nearly 12 hours of downslope warming/…
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No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Dec 11 01:46:02 UTC 2024.View the full article
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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2024 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI TO GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong/potentially severe thunderstorms remain possible -- mainly from portions of southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle into Georgia tonight. ...Mouth of the Mississippi to Georgia and the Florida Panhandle... Meager instability is indicated ahead of a cold front advancing across the Southeast this evening. As a result of the lack of appreciable CAPE, inland thunder…
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MD 2257 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA Mesoscale Discussion 2257 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0545 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2024 Areas affected...Southeast Alabama and parts of the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 102345Z - 110145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Weak, shallow convection is expected to overspread southeast Alabama into southern Georgia through the late evening hours. This activity may pose a low-end tornado threat, but watch issuance is currently not anticipated. D…
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z ...D3/Thursday Florida Peninsula... A deep long-wave trough will move across the eastern US on D3/Thursday, with attendant cold front and enhanced west to northwest flow aloft overspreading portions of the northern and central Florida Peninsula. Though the strongest flow aloft will remain to the north, there is potential for breezy surface winds around 10-15 mph to overlap relative humidity around 35-40 percent as drier and cooler air filters in behind the front. This region has received well below normal r…
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z ...D3/Thursday Florida Peninsula... A deep long-wave trough will move across the eastern US on D3/Thursday, with attendant cold front and enhanced west to northwest flow aloft overspreading portions of the northern and central Florida Peninsula. Though the strongest flow aloft will remain to the north, there is potential for breezy surface winds around 10-15 mph to overlap relative humidity around 35-40 percent as drier and cooler air filters in behind the front. This region has received well below normal r…
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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING FROM EAST-CENTRAL ALABAMA INTO WEST-CENTRAL GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms may affect portions of east-central Alabama into west-central Georgia through this evening. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was to trim the western portion of severe probabilities, where the convective line and related wind shift has progressed eastward. Ahead of the line, latest radar data has shown brief/transient circulation…
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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING FROM EAST-CENTRAL ALABAMA INTO WEST-CENTRAL GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms may affect portions of east-central Alabama into west-central Georgia through this evening. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was to trim the western portion of severe probabilities, where the convective line and related wind shift has progressed eastward. Ahead of the line, latest radar data has shown brief/transient circulation…
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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING FROM EAST-CENTRAL ALABAMA INTO WEST-CENTRAL GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms may affect portions of east-central Alabama into west-central Georgia through this evening. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was to trim the western portion of severe probabilities, where the convective line and related wind shift has progressed eastward. Ahead of the line, latest radar data has shown brief/transient circulation…
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z Minor changes were made to the D2 Elevated area to extend areas to the coastline in Ventura/Los Angeles county. Otherwise, the outlook remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are anticipated Wednesday along the southern CA coast as an ongoing offshore wind event begins to wane. This event is expected to peak in intensity this mornin…
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z Minor changes were made to the D2 Elevated area to extend areas to the coastline in Ventura/Los Angeles county. Otherwise, the outlook remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are anticipated Wednesday along the southern CA coast as an ongoing offshore wind event begins to wane. This event is expected to peak in intensity this mornin…
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Discussion... A quiescent synoptic pattern for thunderstorm activity is expected on Thursday. In the wake of a cold front pushing offshore of the entire East Coast on D2, an Arctic air mass will settle into the Upper Great Lakes. A couple lightning flashes are possible in the heaviest lake-effect snow bands immediately downstream of the Lower Great Lakes, but probabilities appear to be less than 10 percent. Otherwise, modifie…
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Discussion... A quiescent synoptic pattern for thunderstorm activity is expected on Thursday. In the wake of a cold front pushing offshore of the entire East Coast on D2, an Arctic air mass will settle into the Upper Great Lakes. A couple lightning flashes are possible in the heaviest lake-effect snow bands immediately downstream of the Lower Great Lakes, but probabilities appear to be less than 10 percent. Otherwise, modifie…
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Discussion... A quiescent synoptic pattern for thunderstorm activity is expected on Thursday. In the wake of a cold front pushing offshore of the entire East Coast on D2, an Arctic air mass will settle into the Upper Great Lakes. A couple lightning flashes are possible in the heaviest lake-effect snow bands immediately downstream of the Lower Great Lakes, but probabilities appear to be less than 10 percent. Otherwise, modifie…
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Discussion... A quiescent synoptic pattern for thunderstorm activity is expected on Thursday. In the wake of a cold front pushing offshore of the entire East Coast on D2, an Arctic air mass will settle into the Upper Great Lakes. A couple lightning flashes are possible in the heaviest lake-effect snow bands immediately downstream of the Lower Great Lakes, but probabilities appear to be less than 10 percent. Otherwise, modifie…
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN NC VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across many of the East Coast States. The most probable area for a few tornadoes and damaging winds is centered on eastern North Carolina during Wednesday afternoon. ...Synopsis... A longwave trough will extend from south-central Canada to the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday morning. A vigorous shortwave impulse embedded within the basal portion of the trough will rapidly advance into t…
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN NC VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across many of the East Coast States. The most probable area for a few tornadoes and damaging winds is centered on eastern North Carolina during Wednesday afternoon. ...Synopsis... A longwave trough will extend from south-central Canada to the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday morning. A vigorous shortwave impulse embedded within the basal portion of the trough will rapidly advance into t…
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN NC VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across many of the East Coast States. The most probable area for a few tornadoes and damaging winds is centered on eastern North Carolina during Wednesday afternoon. ...Synopsis... A longwave trough will extend from south-central Canada to the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday morning. A vigorous shortwave impulse embedded within the basal portion of the trough will rapidly advance into t…
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN NC VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across many of the East Coast States. The most probable area for a few tornadoes and damaging winds is centered on eastern North Carolina during Wednesday afternoon. ...Synopsis... A longwave trough will extend from south-central Canada to the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday morning. A vigorous shortwave impulse embedded within the basal portion of the trough will rapidly advance into t…
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1044 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2024 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... Critical to Extremely Critical fire weather conditions continue across southern California this morning. Peak wind gusts of 50-70 mph (localized 80-90 mph) with a fire ongoing in Malibu. Guidance suggests that the peak winds have occurred this morning, with gradual weakening through the afternoon. However, Critical to locally Extremely Critical conditions w…
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