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- Tornado/Severe Thunderstorm Watches - Watch number and the link to the watch page and watch status page if issued.
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- Convective Outlooks - Day 1, 2, 3, and 4-8
- Fire Weather Outlooks - 1,2, and 3-8
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MD 2263 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR COASTAL LAKE ONTARIO IN WESTERN NEW YORK Mesoscale Discussion 2263 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Areas affected...coastal Lake Ontario in western New York Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 121721Z - 122115Z SUMMARY...Heavy snow, with rates approaching 2 inches/hr, may accompany the ongoing snow band across eastern Lake Ontario through the early to mid afternoon hours. DISCUSSION...A lake effect snowband is in progress across the eastern shore of Lake Ontario, with periods of at least moderate snowfall rates noted via surface observations. 17Z mesoanalysis shows deep-layer flow fields orient…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Friday night. ...Central States... A shortwave trough near the Four Corners will move across the southern Rockies into the central Great Plains by early Saturday. The attendant lee surface cyclone will be weak as it tracks from the Raton Mesa vicinity into eastern KS. Modified moisture return from the western Gulf is anticipated within the broad low-level warm conveyor ahead of the minor cyclone. Adequate buoyancy in co…
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Friday night. ...Central States... A shortwave trough near the Four Corners will move across the southern Rockies into the central Great Plains by early Saturday. The attendant lee surface cyclone will be weak as it tracks from the Raton Mesa vicinity into eastern KS. Modified moisture return from the western Gulf is anticipated within the broad low-level warm conveyor ahead of the minor cyclone. Adequate buoyancy in co…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Friday night. ...Central States... A shortwave trough near the Four Corners will move across the southern Rockies into the central Great Plains by early Saturday. The attendant lee surface cyclone will be weak as it tracks from the Raton Mesa vicinity into eastern KS. Modified moisture return from the western Gulf is anticipated within the broad low-level warm conveyor ahead of the minor cyclone. Adequate buoyancy in co…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1242 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns may emerge across parts of the southern Plains and Southwest this afternoon; however, relatively moist fuel conditions continue to limit the overall fire threat. Early-morning water vapor imagery depicts a slowly de-amplifying ridge from the southern Rockies into wester…
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1242 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns may emerge across parts of the southern Plains and Southwest this afternoon; however, relatively moist fuel conditions continue to limit the overall fire threat. Early-morning water vapor imagery depicts a slowly de-amplifying ridge from the southern Rockies into wester…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1242 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns may emerge across parts of the southern Plains and Southwest this afternoon; however, relatively moist fuel conditions continue to limit the overall fire threat. Early-morning water vapor imagery depicts a slowly de-amplifying ridge from the southern Rockies into wester…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Lightning is possible this evening and tonight along the eastern shores of Lake Ontario in association with lake-effect snow bands. ...NY... Cool/dry and stable conditions will prevail over the most of the CONUS today, with no organized thunderstorm activity expected. One exception will be in the vicinity of the eastern shores of Lake Ontario (Jefferson/Lewis/Oswego counties). A long-fetch lake-effect snow band is forecast to develop later this evening and tonigh…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Lightning is possible this evening and tonight along the eastern shores of Lake Ontario in association with lake-effect snow bands. ...NY... Cool/dry and stable conditions will prevail over the most of the CONUS today, with no organized thunderstorm activity expected. One exception will be in the vicinity of the eastern shores of Lake Ontario (Jefferson/Lewis/Oswego counties). A long-fetch lake-effect snow band is forecast to develop later this evening and tonigh…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Lightning is possible this evening and tonight along the eastern shores of Lake Ontario in association with lake-effect snow bands. ...NY... Cool/dry and stable conditions will prevail over the most of the CONUS today, with no organized thunderstorm activity expected. One exception will be in the vicinity of the eastern shores of Lake Ontario (Jefferson/Lewis/Oswego counties). A long-fetch lake-effect snow band is forecast to develop later this evening and tonigh…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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MD 2262 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PARTS OF WESTERN NY/EXTREME NORTHWEST PA DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE ERIE Mesoscale Discussion 2262 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0939 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Areas affected...Parts of western NY/extreme northwest PA downstream of Lake Erie Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 121539Z - 121845Z SUMMARY...Very heavy snow rates will continue in the short term, with some weakening possible by early afternoon. DISCUSSION...An intense lake-effect snow band is ongoing this morning across parts of western NY and extreme northwest PA, downstream of Lake Erie. Recent reports suggest snow rates in excess of 3 inches per hour in the heaviest…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0617 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A mid/upper-level cyclone -- initially over northern ON -- will break down as another develops across central QC today, within the same larger-scale troughing regime. As the resulting low ejects northeastward over northern QC, and synoptic ridging moves from the Rockies to the Plains States, heights will rise over most of the central/eastern CONUS. The air mass east of the Rockies mostly will remai…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0617 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A mid/upper-level cyclone -- initially over northern ON -- will break down as another develops across central QC today, within the same larger-scale troughing regime. As the resulting low ejects northeastward over northern QC, and synoptic ridging moves from the Rockies to the Plains States, heights will rise over most of the central/eastern CONUS. The air mass east of the Rockies mostly will remai…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0617 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A mid/upper-level cyclone -- initially over northern ON -- will break down as another develops across central QC today, within the same larger-scale troughing regime. As the resulting low ejects northeastward over northern QC, and synoptic ridging moves from the Rockies to the Plains States, heights will rise over most of the central/eastern CONUS. The air mass east of the Rockies mostly will remai…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... Most of the medium-range guidance has trend faster and less amplified with the shortwave trough expected to move from the Four Corners region through the central Plains on D4/Sunday. This more northerly progression will limit the interaction between this wave and any returning low-level moisture, which should limit thunderstorm potential throughout most of the day. Another shortwave trough is expected to follow in the wake of this lead wave, but with a more southerly track across the Southwest and into the sout…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... Most of the medium-range guidance has trend faster and less amplified with the shortwave trough expected to move from the Four Corners region through the central Plains on D4/Sunday. This more northerly progression will limit the interaction between this wave and any returning low-level moisture, which should limit thunderstorm potential throughout most of the day. Another shortwave trough is expected to follow in the wake of this lead wave, but with a more southerly track across the Southwest and into the sout…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... Most of the medium-range guidance has trend faster and less amplified with the shortwave trough expected to move from the Four Corners region through the central Plains on D4/Sunday. This more northerly progression will limit the interaction between this wave and any returning low-level moisture, which should limit thunderstorm potential throughout most of the day. Another shortwave trough is expected to follow in the wake of this lead wave, but with a more southerly track across the Southwest and into the sout…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Texas Hill Country into the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A stacked mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to be over the central Plains early Saturday morning before progressing northeastward throughout the day and ending the period over the Mid MS Valley. This cyclone will be accompanied by strong mid-level jet throughout its base, which will spread from OK northeastward across MO…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Texas Hill Country into the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A stacked mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to be over the central Plains early Saturday morning before progressing northeastward throughout the day and ending the period over the Mid MS Valley. This cyclone will be accompanied by strong mid-level jet throughout its base, which will spread from OK northeastward across MO…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to emerge across the southern High Plains on Friday afternoon as a progressive upper wave traverses the southern Rockies. Recent water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. This feature is expected to reach central NM by around peak heating on Friday. In response to the arrival of the wave, an antecedent lee cyclone across east/southeast CO will intensify with an attendant low-level wind response. Recent ensemble guidance sh…
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to emerge across the southern High Plains on Friday afternoon as a progressive upper wave traverses the southern Rockies. Recent water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. This feature is expected to reach central NM by around peak heating on Friday. In response to the arrival of the wave, an antecedent lee cyclone across east/southeast CO will intensify with an attendant low-level wind response. Recent ensemble guidance sh…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Friday night. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is forecast to begin the period over the Four Corners before continuing eastward across the central Rockies and ending the period as a closed cyclone over the central Plains. An associated surface low is expected to move quickly northeastward just ahead of this shortwave, progressing from the northeast NM/southeast CO vicinity into eastern KS. As it does, an attendant cold…
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns may emerge across parts of the southern Plains and Southwest this afternoon; however, relatively moist fuel conditions continue to limit the overall fire threat. Early-morning water vapor imagery depicts a slowly de-amplifying ridge from the southern Rockies into western Canada with shortwave troughs approaching the Pacific Northwest and Baja California. These upper waves will drive fire weather concerns for the next two days as they migrate east int…
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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Some lightning remains possible in heavier showers overspreading portions of coastal New England, and offshore of coastal southeastern Florida, this evening. However, the risk for severe weather appears negligible. ...01Z Update... ...Atlantic Seaboard... Thunderstorm development has generally become focused in a narrow pre-frontal line, now mostly offshore near the Gulf Stream. Offshore of northern Mid Atlantic into portions of New England coastal areas, the nar…
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the extended as a progressive pattern brings several storms across the CONUS with potential for cool temperatures and widespread precipitation. Periods of dry/windy conditions are expected across the High/Southern Plains, however, fuels do not appear supportive of large-fire potential at this time. ERC forecasts do indicate fuels will dry, particularly across western Texas into eastern New Mexico, but largely remain below Critical thresholds. ..Thornton.. 12/11/2024…
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