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- Tornado/Severe Thunderstorm Watches - Watch number and the link to the watch page and watch status page if issued.
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- Convective Outlooks - Day 1, 2, 3, and 4-8
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9,156 topics in this forum
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... No changes are needed to the current D2 Fire Weather Outlook. Some consideration was given to adding an Extremely Critical area to the mountains and foothills in San Diego County. In coordination with local partners, it appears the threat here may remain too isolated to warrant inclusion of areas at this time. Extremely Critical conditions will likely be …
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of a cold front from the Mid-Atlantic into the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... As a strong mid-level trough becomes negatively tilted across the eastern CONUS, a surface low will deepen as it moves north along the spine of the Appalachians and tropospheric flow will strengthen across much of the East Coast. As the surfac…
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of a cold front from the Mid-Atlantic into the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... As a strong mid-level trough becomes negatively tilted across the eastern CONUS, a surface low will deepen as it moves north along the spine of the Appalachians and tropospheric flow will strengthen across much of the East Coast. As the surfac…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of a cold front from the Mid-Atlantic into the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... As a strong mid-level trough becomes negatively tilted across the eastern CONUS, a surface low will deepen as it moves north along the spine of the Appalachians and tropospheric flow will strengthen across much of the East Coast. As the surfac…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH AL...SOUTHWEST GA...AND THE ADJACENT FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of central and south Alabama, southwest Georgia, and the adjacent Florida Panhandle on Tuesday. ...Southeast... An upper-level trough will amplify and transition from positively tilted across the Southwest Tuesday morning to negatively tilted by early Wednesday morning across the Mississippi Valley. Persistent …
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH AL...SOUTHWEST GA...AND THE ADJACENT FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of central and south Alabama, southwest Georgia, and the adjacent Florida Panhandle on Tuesday. ...Southeast... An upper-level trough will amplify and transition from positively tilted across the Southwest Tuesday morning to negatively tilted by early Wednesday morning across the Mississippi Valley. Persistent …
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1018 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. Though morning surface and satellite observations show the marine layer is in place across much of the coastal areas/valleys within the current Elevated and Critical risk areas, this is expected to mix out through the afternoon as offshore flow increases. Conditions will worsen through late Monday afternoon before peaking early on Tuesday. ..Thornton.. 12/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION..…
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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1008 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI.... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into much of the Southeast States today and tonight. Isolated strong to severe storms may affect parts of southern Louisiana and Mississippi. ...LA/MS... Morning water vapor imagery shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving across central TX. This feature will track into the lower MS valley this afternoon, where…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1008 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI.... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into much of the Southeast States today and tonight. Isolated strong to severe storms may affect parts of southern Louisiana and Mississippi. ...LA/MS... Morning water vapor imagery shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving across central TX. This feature will track into the lower MS valley this afternoon, where…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into much of the Southeast States today and tonight. The potential for severe thunderstorms currently appears low. ...Southeast States... Neutral height tendencies will tend to prevail over the region as a low-amplitude shortwave trough over the Lower Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valley races east-northward toward the Mid-Atlantic seaboard. Convergence will tend to remain weak diurnally near a northward-shif…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into much of the Southeast States today and tonight. The potential for severe thunderstorms currently appears low. ...Southeast States... Neutral height tendencies will tend to prevail over the region as a low-amplitude shortwave trough over the Lower Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valley races east-northward toward the Mid-Atlantic seaboard. Convergence will tend to remain weak diurnally near a northward-shif…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... Cyclonic upper flow and stable low-level conditions are expected across the central and eastern CONUS on D4/Thursday as surface high pressure shifts from the northern Plains into the OH Valley. At the same time, a low-amplitude, southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to progress across the Great Basin and Four Corners before then continuing into the central/southern Plains on D5/Friday and Mid MS Valley on D6/Saturday. Surface cyclogenesis will likely precede this shortwave over the central Plains on D5/F…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Dec 9 09:00:02 UTC 2024.View the full article
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... ...Synopsis... Critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected Tuesday morning along the southern California coast. An unseasonably strong surface high across the northern Great Basin will maintain a robust offshore pressure gradient along the southern CA coast for much of Tuesday and into early Wednesday (see the current D1 Fire Outlook…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 PM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z ...Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday - Southern California... Large-scale trough amplification is forecast over the western CONUS on Monday. This in combination with an anonymously strong surface high pressure over the Intermountain West will tighten offshore pressure gradients across southern CA (LAX-DAG gradient peaking around -8 to -9 mb). This pattern will favor critical fire-weather conditions across portions of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties in southern CA, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels. Critical …
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... No changes are needed to the current D2 Fire Weather Outlook. Fire weather concerns are expected to increase towards the end of the D2 period and into D3 for a long duration and widespread critical fire weather event. See previous text for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Southern California Coast... Fire weather concerns will likely emerge along the southern CA …
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... No changes are needed to the current D2 Fire Weather Outlook. Fire weather concerns are expected to increase towards the end of the D2 period and into D3 for a long duration and widespread critical fire weather event. See previous text for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Southern California Coast... Fire weather concerns will likely emerge along the southern CA …
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z... No changes, overall severe potential remains very low. Extensive cloud cover and stratiform precipitation have stunted the inland advection/development of a higher theta-E air mass onshore. Short-term model guidance does suggest this may change over the next several hours as forcing for ascent and weak surface pressure falls intensify this evening and overnight. Steepening mid-level lapse rates and in…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z... No changes, overall severe potential remains very low. Extensive cloud cover and stratiform precipitation have stunted the inland advection/development of a higher theta-E air mass onshore. Short-term model guidance does suggest this may change over the next several hours as forcing for ascent and weak surface pressure falls intensify this evening and overnight. Steepening mid-level lapse rates and in…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z... No changes, overall severe potential remains very low. Extensive cloud cover and stratiform precipitation have stunted the inland advection/development of a higher theta-E air mass onshore. Short-term model guidance does suggest this may change over the next several hours as forcing for ascent and weak surface pressure falls intensify this evening and overnight. Steepening mid-level lapse rates and in…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 PM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH AL...SOUTHWEST GA...AND THE ADJACENT FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of central and south Alabama, southwest Georgia, and the adjacent Florida Panhandle on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level trough across much of the central/eastern CONUS will begin to shift eastward on Tuesday. This trough will take on a neutral tilt as a significant shortwave moves through the base of th…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 PM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH AL...SOUTHWEST GA...AND THE ADJACENT FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of central and south Alabama, southwest Georgia, and the adjacent Florida Panhandle on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level trough across much of the central/eastern CONUS will begin to shift eastward on Tuesday. This trough will take on a neutral tilt as a significant shortwave moves through the base of th…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 PM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH AL...SOUTHWEST GA...AND THE ADJACENT FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of central and south Alabama, southwest Georgia, and the adjacent Florida Panhandle on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level trough across much of the central/eastern CONUS will begin to shift eastward on Tuesday. This trough will take on a neutral tilt as a significant shortwave moves through the base of th…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into much of the Southeast States on Monday. The probability for severe thunderstorms appears low. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough covering much of the CONUS is forecast to amplify further on Monday, as multiple shortwaves move through the large-scale trough. One shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly from the OH/TN Valley region toward the Mid Atlantic during the day, as a trailing low-ampl…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into much of the Southeast States on Monday. The probability for severe thunderstorms appears low. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough covering much of the CONUS is forecast to amplify further on Monday, as multiple shortwaves move through the large-scale trough. One shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly from the OH/TN Valley region toward the Mid Atlantic during the day, as a trailing low-ampl…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX,
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