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Public Severe Weather Outlook PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0223 AM CDT WED MAY 08 2024 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Ozarks to middle Tennessee later today and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Southern Missouri Northwestern to middle Tennessee Southwestern Kentucky Extreme southern Illinois Extreme northeastern Arkansas * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force A few intense tornadoes Widespread large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms appear likely Wednesday from parts of the mid Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys into the southern Plains. All severe hazards, including tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and potentially significant damaging winds are possible. Some of the tornadoes may be strong. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && Read more View the full article

Public Severe Weather Outlook PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0223 AM CDT WED MAY 08 2024 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Ozarks to middle Tennessee later today and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Southern Missouri Northwestern to middle Tennessee Southwestern Kentucky Extreme southern Illinois Extreme northeastern Arkansas * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force A few intense tornadoes Widespread large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms appear likely Wednesday from parts of the mid Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys into the southern Plains. All severe hazards, including tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and potentially significant damaging winds are possible. Some of the tornadoes may be strong. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && Read more View the full article

Public Severe Weather Outlook PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0223 AM CDT WED MAY 08 2024 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Ozarks to middle Tennessee later today and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Southern Missouri Northwestern to middle Tennessee Southwestern Kentucky Extreme southern Illinois Extreme northeastern Arkansas * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force A few intense tornadoes Widespread large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms appear likely Wednesday from parts of the mid Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys into the southern Plains. All severe hazards, including tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and potentially significant damaging winds are possible. Some of the tornadoes may be strong. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && Read more View the full article

Public Severe Weather Outlook PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0223 AM CDT WED MAY 08 2024 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Ozarks to middle Tennessee later today and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Southern Missouri Northwestern to middle Tennessee Southwestern Kentucky Extreme southern Illinois Extreme northeastern Arkansas * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force A few intense tornadoes Widespread large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms appear likely Wednesday from parts of the mid Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys into the southern Plains. All severe hazards, including tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and potentially significant damaging winds are possible. Some of the tornadoes may be strong. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && Read more View the full article

Public Severe Weather Outlook PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0223 AM CDT WED MAY 08 2024 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Ozarks to middle Tennessee later today and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Southern Missouri Northwestern to middle Tennessee Southwestern Kentucky Extreme southern Illinois Extreme northeastern Arkansas * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force A few intense tornadoes Widespread large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms appear likely Wednesday from parts of the mid Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys into the southern Plains. All severe hazards, including tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and potentially significant damaging winds are possible. Some of the tornadoes may be strong. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && Read more View the full article

Public Severe Weather Outlook PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0223 AM CDT WED MAY 08 2024 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Ozarks to middle Tennessee later today and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Southern Missouri Northwestern to middle Tennessee Southwestern Kentucky Extreme southern Illinois Extreme northeastern Arkansas * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force A few intense tornadoes Widespread large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms appear likely Wednesday from parts of the mid Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys into the southern Plains. All severe hazards, including tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and potentially significant damaging winds are possible. Some of the tornadoes may be strong. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && Read more View the full article

Public Severe Weather Outlook PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0223 AM CDT WED MAY 08 2024 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Ozarks to middle Tennessee later today and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Southern Missouri Northwestern to middle Tennessee Southwestern Kentucky Extreme southern Illinois Extreme northeastern Arkansas * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force A few intense tornadoes Widespread large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms appear likely Wednesday from parts of the mid Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys into the southern Plains. All severe hazards, including tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and potentially significant damaging winds are possible. Some of the tornadoes may be strong. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && Read more View the full article

Public Severe Weather Outlook PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0223 AM CDT WED MAY 08 2024 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Ozarks to middle Tennessee later today and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Southern Missouri Northwestern to middle Tennessee Southwestern Kentucky Extreme southern Illinois Extreme northeastern Arkansas * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force A few intense tornadoes Widespread large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms appear likely Wednesday from parts of the mid Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys into the southern Plains. All severe hazards, including tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and potentially significant damaging winds are possible. Some of the tornadoes may be strong. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && Read more View the full article

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Wed May 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Very large hail with multiple supercells appears probable across parts of central Texas into the ArkLaTex vicinity Thursday afternoon and evening. A broader corridor of severe hail and damaging wind potential will extend from east Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. ...East TX to South Carolina... Most guidance is in agreement that an MCS will be ongoing Thursday morning in the vicinity of northeast AL into northern GA. The expectation is that this MCS will develop southeast toward southeast GA/far southern SC through the day. Maintenance of this system should be supported by a shortwave impulse migrating across the region with 40 kt of 850-700 mb southwesterly flow overspreading a very moist airmass. Downstream destabilization ahead of the MCS across central/southern GA and perhaps portions of eastern AL is forecast, with MLCAPE to near 2500 J/kg expected. Both GFS and NAM forecast soundings indicate steep low-level lapse rates develop amid strong heating into the 80s F. Furthermore, midlevel lapse rates around 7 C/km and elongated hodographs are present. Severe/damaging wind potential will be the main concern given expected bowing convective mode. However, should any more discrete convection develop, a risk for large hail and a tornadoes also will be present given an environment capable of supporting supercells. Further east, a cluster of supercells is expected to develop across north TX southward toward the Hill Country in the vicinity of the intersecting dryline and cold front. Strong to extreme instability (3500+ MLCAPE) is anticipated amid a plume of very steep midlevel lapse rates. This will support intense updraft development amid 40+ kt effective shear magnitudes and elongated/straight hodographs. Very large hail (2-3 inch diameter) will be possible with these storms. Steep low-level lapse rates, large CAPE and water-loaded downdrafts also will support damaging wind potential. With time, the damaging wind risk will increase as clustering occurs. Most guidance generates an eastward propagating MCS from the east TX cluster, moving across northern LA into MS/AL during the evening/nighttime hours. This activity is expected to move along the gradient of strong to extreme instability across this region ahead of the southeastward progressing cold front. Some potential will exist for significant gusts (to near 75 mph). ...North Carolina to the Mid-Atlantic vicinity... Some showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing across the Chesapeake Bay vicinity southward to far eastern NC. Nevertheless, weak destabilization/airmass recovery is forecast by afternoon. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop from the Upper Ohio Valley eastward across parts of VA/NC ahead of the south/southeastward-advancing cold front. Locally strong gusts and small hail will be possible with this activity. ..Leitman.. 05/08/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Wed May 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Very large hail with multiple supercells appears probable across parts of central Texas into the ArkLaTex vicinity Thursday afternoon and evening. A broader corridor of severe hail and damaging wind potential will extend from east Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. ...East TX to South Carolina... Most guidance is in agreement that an MCS will be ongoing Thursday morning in the vicinity of northeast AL into northern GA. The expectation is that this MCS will develop southeast toward southeast GA/far southern SC through the day. Maintenance of this system should be supported by a shortwave impulse migrating across the region with 40 kt of 850-700 mb southwesterly flow overspreading a very moist airmass. Downstream destabilization ahead of the MCS across central/southern GA and perhaps portions of eastern AL is forecast, with MLCAPE to near 2500 J/kg expected. Both GFS and NAM forecast soundings indicate steep low-level lapse rates develop amid strong heating into the 80s F. Furthermore, midlevel lapse rates around 7 C/km and elongated hodographs are present. Severe/damaging wind potential will be the main concern given expected bowing convective mode. However, should any more discrete convection develop, a risk for large hail and a tornadoes also will be present given an environment capable of supporting supercells. Further east, a cluster of supercells is expected to develop across north TX southward toward the Hill Country in the vicinity of the intersecting dryline and cold front. Strong to extreme instability (3500+ MLCAPE) is anticipated amid a plume of very steep midlevel lapse rates. This will support intense updraft development amid 40+ kt effective shear magnitudes and elongated/straight hodographs. Very large hail (2-3 inch diameter) will be possible with these storms. Steep low-level lapse rates, large CAPE and water-loaded downdrafts also will support damaging wind potential. With time, the damaging wind risk will increase as clustering occurs. Most guidance generates an eastward propagating MCS from the east TX cluster, moving across northern LA into MS/AL during the evening/nighttime hours. This activity is expected to move along the gradient of strong to extreme instability across this region ahead of the southeastward progressing cold front. Some potential will exist for significant gusts (to near 75 mph). ...North Carolina to the Mid-Atlantic vicinity... Some showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing across the Chesapeake Bay vicinity southward to far eastern NC. Nevertheless, weak destabilization/airmass recovery is forecast by afternoon. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop from the Upper Ohio Valley eastward across parts of VA/NC ahead of the south/southeastward-advancing cold front. Locally strong gusts and small hail will be possible with this activity. ..Leitman.. 05/08/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Wed May 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Very large hail with multiple supercells appears probable across parts of central Texas into the ArkLaTex vicinity Thursday afternoon and evening. A broader corridor of severe hail and damaging wind potential will extend from east Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. ...East TX to South Carolina... Most guidance is in agreement that an MCS will be ongoing Thursday morning in the vicinity of northeast AL into northern GA. The expectation is that this MCS will develop southeast toward southeast GA/far southern SC through the day. Maintenance of this system should be supported by a shortwave impulse migrating across the region with 40 kt of 850-700 mb southwesterly flow overspreading a very moist airmass. Downstream destabilization ahead of the MCS across central/southern GA and perhaps portions of eastern AL is forecast, with MLCAPE to near 2500 J/kg expected. Both GFS and NAM forecast soundings indicate steep low-level lapse rates develop amid strong heating into the 80s F. Furthermore, midlevel lapse rates around 7 C/km and elongated hodographs are present. Severe/damaging wind potential will be the main concern given expected bowing convective mode. However, should any more discrete convection develop, a risk for large hail and a tornadoes also will be present given an environment capable of supporting supercells. Further east, a cluster of supercells is expected to develop across north TX southward toward the Hill Country in the vicinity of the intersecting dryline and cold front. Strong to extreme instability (3500+ MLCAPE) is anticipated amid a plume of very steep midlevel lapse rates. This will support intense updraft development amid 40+ kt effective shear magnitudes and elongated/straight hodographs. Very large hail (2-3 inch diameter) will be possible with these storms. Steep low-level lapse rates, large CAPE and water-loaded downdrafts also will support damaging wind potential. With time, the damaging wind risk will increase as clustering occurs. Most guidance generates an eastward propagating MCS from the east TX cluster, moving across northern LA into MS/AL during the evening/nighttime hours. This activity is expected to move along the gradient of strong to extreme instability across this region ahead of the southeastward progressing cold front. Some potential will exist for significant gusts (to near 75 mph). ...North Carolina to the Mid-Atlantic vicinity... Some showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing across the Chesapeake Bay vicinity southward to far eastern NC. Nevertheless, weak destabilization/airmass recovery is forecast by afternoon. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop from the Upper Ohio Valley eastward across parts of VA/NC ahead of the south/southeastward-advancing cold front. Locally strong gusts and small hail will be possible with this activity. ..Leitman.. 05/08/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Wed May 08 2024 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE TRANS PECOS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1238 AM CDT Wed May 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level cyclone over the central U.S. will evolve into an elongated trough stretching from the Northeast into the Southwest today. Enhanced mid-level winds will remain over the southern Rockies, though will be weaker than previous days. Modest surface low pressure will be located within Central Texas into the Rio Grande Valley. ...New Mexico...Trans-Pecos... Despite weakening synoptic features, surface winds will reach 15-20 mph across parts of these areas. Some winds may reach 20-25 mph hour beneath the stronger mid-level flow. The most likely areas for this will be southern New Mexico into the Trans-Pecos as well as parts of northeast New Mexico. RH across the broader region will generally fall to 10-15% during the afternoon. Elevated to critical fire weather is expected for a few hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Wed May 08 2024 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE TRANS PECOS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1238 AM CDT Wed May 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level cyclone over the central U.S. will evolve into an elongated trough stretching from the Northeast into the Southwest today. Enhanced mid-level winds will remain over the southern Rockies, though will be weaker than previous days. Modest surface low pressure will be located within Central Texas into the Rio Grande Valley. ...New Mexico...Trans-Pecos... Despite weakening synoptic features, surface winds will reach 15-20 mph across parts of these areas. Some winds may reach 20-25 mph hour beneath the stronger mid-level flow. The most likely areas for this will be southern New Mexico into the Trans-Pecos as well as parts of northeast New Mexico. RH across the broader region will generally fall to 10-15% during the afternoon. Elevated to critical fire weather is expected for a few hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Wed May 08 2024 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MISSOURI OZARKS EASTWARD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear likely from parts of the mid Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys into the southern Plains. All severe hazards, including tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and potentially significant damaging winds are possible. Some tornadoes may be strong. ...Ozarks to Mid Mississippi, lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys... A complex, partially mesoscale-driven forecast is apparent for the Ozarks eastward into the lower OH/TN Valleys. A morning thunderstorm complex over TN has draped an outflow boundary --western portion of it advancing northward-- across the lower TN/OH Valleys. A very moist/unstable airmass is located along and south of the boundary across the MS Valley, with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s contributing to a very unstable airmass (2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE). A strong belt of southwesterly 500-mb flow extending through the base of a mid-upper level low over the north-central High Plains, will remain overhead from the southern Great Plains east-northeast into the Mid South/OH Valley. Ongoing severe storm cluster late this morning will likely expand in convective coverage over eastern MO into western TN/KY through the mid afternoon. Supercells potentially capable of tornadoes, a few of which may be strong, and large to very large hail and significant severe gusts are possible with this activity. Have adjusted (lowered) severe probabilities on the northern periphery of the risk area given expected concentration of thunderstorms and associated severe to favor the corridor in the vicinity of the boundary. Eventual upscale growth is expected later today into tonight as this activity moves east-southeast with an accompanying swath of wind damage. ...Eastern OK to AR, Mid-South and central TX... Thunderstorms should develop by mid-late afternoon near the front and dryline, as a combination of lift along those boundaries and strong surface heating combine with very rich low-level moisture to erode the cap. Once storms initiate, rapid evolution to supercells is expected. Forecast soundings in the OK/AR/MO border area show very large CAPE and elongated hodographs. Large to giant hail and tornadoes will be the primary hazards early in the convective life cycle. Have extended the 10-percent significant tornado probabilities into far southwest MO, northwest AR, and far eastern OK. There is some signal for upscale growth to occur this evening across AR with an MCS moving east across the Mid South. Have adjusted severe-wind probabilities farther south to account for this potential scenario. Farther southwest, lower storm coverage is expected across the TX/Arklatex. However, steep lapse rates and 70s dewpoints will contribute to extreme MLCAPE. Although near-surface flow generally will be 10 kt or less, limiting lowest-km hodographs/shear, effective-shear magnitudes in the 40-55-kt range indicate supercells will be possible. These will be capable of very large/destructive hail exceeding 3 inches in diameter. Clusters or upscale mergers of convection also may offer deep, precip-loaded, hail-cooled downdrafts with locally severe gusts. Cell mergers and interactions with boundaries will factor into tornado potential on the storm scale, since the environmental low-level shear appears on the margins. ...Southern Appalachians/Cumberland Plateau into Carolinas... Ongoing strong to severe thunderstorm cluster over the eastern TN will likely continue to develop to the east-southeast during the afternoon. The airmass will continue to destabilize downstream across the western Carolinas. Scattered strong to severe gusts (55-70 mph) will be capable of wind damage. A few of the stronger cells may also pose a large hail threat. Additional storms are possible east over the Piedmont and into portions of the coastal plain this afternoon into the early evening. An attendant severe risk may accompany the stronger storms. Later tonight, an MCS or several smaller-scale bows are forecast to move east-southeast along the instability gradient forecast to remain draped across the Mid South. Moist/unstable conditions will support a continued risk for damaging gusts moving into northern AL/southern Middle TN into northern GA late tonight. ...Northeastern CONUS... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms may develop this afternoon over parts of eastern NY and New England. A diurnally destabilizing airmass will become weakly unstable (500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE) along/ahead of a prefrontal surface trough. Ample deep-layer shear attendant to a Northeast U.S. shortwave trough, will act to organize updrafts. A mix of multicell and modest supercell characteristics are forecast before activity moves over more-stable air and/or offshore, and weakens by early evening. Isolated hail/damaging gusts are the primary expected hazards. ...Eastern SD to eastern IA and vicinity... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are possible from early afternoon in western parts to evening closer to the Mississippi River, with isolated damaging gusts, large hail and possibly a tornado or two. Activity should form in an area of deep-layer lift (including low-level convergence/mass response) related to a vorticity lobe in the southeastern part of the mid/upper-level cyclone. Associated cooling aloft will combine with residual low-level moisture (dewpoints mid 40s to mid 50s F) to yield pockets of around 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Backed low-level winds will aid convergence and storm-relative low-level flow, and may contribute to locally enlarged hodographs. ..Smith/Jewell.. 05/08/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Wed May 08 2024 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MISSOURI OZARKS EASTWARD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear likely from parts of the mid Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys into the southern Plains. All severe hazards, including tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and potentially significant damaging winds are possible. Some tornadoes may be strong. ...Ozarks to Mid Mississippi, lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys... A complex, partially mesoscale-driven forecast is apparent for the Ozarks eastward into the lower OH/TN Valleys. A morning thunderstorm complex over TN has draped an outflow boundary --western portion of it advancing northward-- across the lower TN/OH Valleys. A very moist/unstable airmass is located along and south of the boundary across the MS Valley, with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s contributing to a very unstable airmass (2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE). A strong belt of southwesterly 500-mb flow extending through the base of a mid-upper level low over the north-central High Plains, will remain overhead from the southern Great Plains east-northeast into the Mid South/OH Valley. Ongoing severe storm cluster late this morning will likely expand in convective coverage over eastern MO into western TN/KY through the mid afternoon. Supercells potentially capable of tornadoes, a few of which may be strong, and large to very large hail and significant severe gusts are possible with this activity. Have adjusted (lowered) severe probabilities on the northern periphery of the risk area given expected concentration of thunderstorms and associated severe to favor the corridor in the vicinity of the boundary. Eventual upscale growth is expected later today into tonight as this activity moves east-southeast with an accompanying swath of wind damage. ...Eastern OK to AR, Mid-South and central TX... Thunderstorms should develop by mid-late afternoon near the front and dryline, as a combination of lift along those boundaries and strong surface heating combine with very rich low-level moisture to erode the cap. Once storms initiate, rapid evolution to supercells is expected. Forecast soundings in the OK/AR/MO border area show very large CAPE and elongated hodographs. Large to giant hail and tornadoes will be the primary hazards early in the convective life cycle. Have extended the 10-percent significant tornado probabilities into far southwest MO, northwest AR, and far eastern OK. There is some signal for upscale growth to occur this evening across AR with an MCS moving east across the Mid South. Have adjusted severe-wind probabilities farther south to account for this potential scenario. Farther southwest, lower storm coverage is expected across the TX/Arklatex. However, steep lapse rates and 70s dewpoints will contribute to extreme MLCAPE. Although near-surface flow generally will be 10 kt or less, limiting lowest-km hodographs/shear, effective-shear magnitudes in the 40-55-kt range indicate supercells will be possible. These will be capable of very large/destructive hail exceeding 3 inches in diameter. Clusters or upscale mergers of convection also may offer deep, precip-loaded, hail-cooled downdrafts with locally severe gusts. Cell mergers and interactions with boundaries will factor into tornado potential on the storm scale, since the environmental low-level shear appears on the margins. ...Southern Appalachians/Cumberland Plateau into Carolinas... Ongoing strong to severe thunderstorm cluster over the eastern TN will likely continue to develop to the east-southeast during the afternoon. The airmass will continue to destabilize downstream across the western Carolinas. Scattered strong to severe gusts (55-70 mph) will be capable of wind damage. A few of the stronger cells may also pose a large hail threat. Additional storms are possible east over the Piedmont and into portions of the coastal plain this afternoon into the early evening. An attendant severe risk may accompany the stronger storms. Later tonight, an MCS or several smaller-scale bows are forecast to move east-southeast along the instability gradient forecast to remain draped across the Mid South. Moist/unstable conditions will support a continued risk for damaging gusts moving into northern AL/southern Middle TN into northern GA late tonight. ...Northeastern CONUS... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms may develop this afternoon over parts of eastern NY and New England. A diurnally destabilizing airmass will become weakly unstable (500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE) along/ahead of a prefrontal surface trough. Ample deep-layer shear attendant to a Northeast U.S. shortwave trough, will act to organize updrafts. A mix of multicell and modest supercell characteristics are forecast before activity moves over more-stable air and/or offshore, and weakens by early evening. Isolated hail/damaging gusts are the primary expected hazards. ...Eastern SD to eastern IA and vicinity... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are possible from early afternoon in western parts to evening closer to the Mississippi River, with isolated damaging gusts, large hail and possibly a tornado or two. Activity should form in an area of deep-layer lift (including low-level convergence/mass response) related to a vorticity lobe in the southeastern part of the mid/upper-level cyclone. Associated cooling aloft will combine with residual low-level moisture (dewpoints mid 40s to mid 50s F) to yield pockets of around 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Backed low-level winds will aid convergence and storm-relative low-level flow, and may contribute to locally enlarged hodographs. ..Smith/Jewell.. 05/08/2024 Read more View the full article

MD 0696 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 202... FOR SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL MO...NORTHEAST OK...NORTHWEST AR Mesoscale Discussion 0696 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1101 AM CDT Wed May 08 2024 Areas affected...Southwest/south-central MO...northeast OK...northwest AR Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 202... Valid 081601Z - 081730Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 202 continues. SUMMARY...With additional storms gradually developing south of WW 202, and the overall environment becoming increasingly favorable for a tornado threat during the afternoon, a new tornado watch that replaces the southern part of WW 202 will be needed prior to its 19Z scheduled expiration. DISCUSSION...While the bulk of supercell clustering has persisted in central MO, additional storms have gradually developed near the OK/KS/MO border area, just southwest of WW 202. This activity is within the low-level warm theta-e advection regime, east of the southeast-sagging cold front that lags in southeast KS to central OK. This development has been slow and sub-severe thus far. But as additional boundary-layer warming continues, especially across eastern OK, along with strengthening low-level convergence as the front impinges, this leading activity should intensify during the early afternoon. While very large hail and isolated severe gusts will be possible, the presence of 35-45 kt low-level southwesterlies per SGF/INX/SRX VWP data will yield favorable hodograph enlargement for a few tornadic storms. Potential for a strong tornado may become maximized near the composite outflow/warm front across southwest to south-central MO. ..Grams.. 05/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA... LAT...LON 37899253 37769168 37009133 36619138 36059259 35839431 35859505 36059555 36539550 37209486 37749403 37879368 37899253 Read more View the full article

MD 0697 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 203... FOR SOUTHEAST MO...SOUTHERN IL...AND FAR WESTERN KY Mesoscale Discussion 0697 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Wed May 08 2024 Areas affected...Southeast MO...southern IL...and far western KY Concerning...Tornado Watch 203... Valid 081628Z - 081800Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 203 continues. SUMMARY...Tornado threat is increasing across southeast Missouri, into southern Illinois, and far western Kentucky. This will include potential for cyclical tornadogenesis and a strong (EF2-EF3) tornado. DISCUSSION...Long-lived/tracked supercell centered on northern Crawford/southern Franklin counties in MO as of 1620Z has fully transitioned from earlier elevated character to surface-based. Measured severe gusts up to 58 kt have been reported in the past hour at the Vichy ASOS. It will likely persist along the composite outflow that extends southeastward, where additional supercells are maturing in far southern IL. The strongest low-level flow across the region remains in southern MO per SGF VWP data, with somewhat weaker but more veering with height over the MS/OH Valley confluence per the PAH VWP data. This will yield an STP environment of 1-3 across the region, supportive of a strong tornado. Overall convective mode will probably become increasingly complex with time as considerable storm-scale consolidation occurs through the afternoon, but occasional attempts at tornadogenesis should occur with multiple embedded supercells. ..Grams.. 05/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF... LAT...LON 38429142 38489045 38198884 37858812 37308770 36898792 36738829 36798878 37269021 37899159 38429142 Read more View the full article

WW 0203 Status Updates STATUS REPORT ON WW 203 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE CSV TO 35 NNW HSS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0695. ..GRAMS..05/08/24 ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 203 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC003-011-021-023-027-035-045-071-087-089-097-099-109-111-115- 119-121-149-161-173-175-199-081640- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER AVERY BUNCOMBE BURKE CALDWELL CATAWBA CLEVELAND GASTON HAYWOOD HENDERSON IREDELL JACKSON LINCOLN MCDOWELL MADISON MECKLENBURG MITCHELL POLK RUTHERFORD SWAIN TRANSYLVANIA YANCEY SCC021-045-083-091-081640- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG YORK Read more View the full article

WW 0203 Status Updates STATUS REPORT ON WW 203 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE CSV TO 35 NNW HSS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0695. ..GRAMS..05/08/24 ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 203 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC003-011-021-023-027-035-045-071-087-089-097-099-109-111-115- 119-121-149-161-173-175-199-081640- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER AVERY BUNCOMBE BURKE CALDWELL CATAWBA CLEVELAND GASTON HAYWOOD HENDERSON IREDELL JACKSON LINCOLN MCDOWELL MADISON MECKLENBURG MITCHELL POLK RUTHERFORD SWAIN TRANSYLVANIA YANCEY SCC021-045-083-091-081640- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG YORK Read more View the full article

WW 203 SEVERE TSTM NC SC TN 081405Z - 082000Z URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 203 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1005 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western North Carolina Upstate South Carolina Eastern Tennessee * Effective this Wednesday morning and afternoon from 1005 AM until 400 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter likely SUMMARY...Clusters of storms, with both bowing and embedded supercell characteristics, will likely continue into the afternoon while spreading east-southeastward across eastern Tennessee into western North Carolina and the northern part of upstate South Carolina. Scattered damaging winds of 60-70 mph and large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter can be expected. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles west northwest of Knoxville TN to 10 miles north of Charlotte NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 202... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Thompson Read more View the full article

WW 0204 Status Updates STATUS FOR WATCH 0204 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more View the full article

WW 0204 Status Updates STATUS FOR WATCH 0204 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more View the full article

WW 204 TORNADO IL KY MO 081525Z - 082200Z URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 204 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1025 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern Illinois Western Kentucky Southeastern Missouri * Effective this Wednesday morning and afternoon from 1025 AM until 500 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely SUMMARY...A supercell cluster in Missouri will likely persist through the afternoon while spreading east-southeastward toward southern Illinois, southeastern Missouri and western Kentucky, with some potential for additional storm development this afternoon. The environment will become more favorable for surface-based storms capable of producing tornadoes (a couple of which could be strong/EF2+), severe wind swaths up to 80 mph, and very large hail of 2-3 inches in diameter. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 5 miles south of Vichy MO to 40 miles east of Paducah KY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 202...WW 203... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 29030. ...Thompson Read more View the full article

WW 204 TORNADO IL KY MO 081525Z - 082200Z URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 204 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1025 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern Illinois Western Kentucky Southeastern Missouri * Effective this Wednesday morning and afternoon from 1025 AM until 500 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely SUMMARY...A supercell cluster in Missouri will likely persist through the afternoon while spreading east-southeastward toward southern Illinois, southeastern Missouri and western Kentucky, with some potential for additional storm development this afternoon. The environment will become more favorable for surface-based storms capable of producing tornadoes (a couple of which could be strong/EF2+), severe wind swaths up to 80 mph, and very large hail of 2-3 inches in diameter. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 5 miles south of Vichy MO to 40 miles east of Paducah KY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 202...WW 203... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 29030. ...Thompson Read more View the full article

WW 0202 Status Updates STATUS REPORT ON WW 202 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE CNU TO 20 SSE CDJ. ..GRAMS..05/08/24 ATTN...WFO...EAX...SGF...LSX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 202 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC011-037-081640- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOURBON CRAWFORD MOC011-013-015-019-027-029-033-039-051-053-057-059-065-077-083- 085-089-101-105-107-125-131-135-141-151-159-161-167-169-185-195- 215-217-225-229-081640- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTON BATES BENTON BOONE CALLAWAY CAMDEN CARROLL CEDAR COLE COOPER DADE DALLAS DENT GREENE HENRY HICKORY HOWARD JOHNSON LACLEDE LAFAYETTE MARIES MILLER MONITEAU MORGAN OSAGE PETTIS PHELPS POLK PULASKI ST. CLAIR Read more View the full article