NorthGeorgiaWX

WW 0202 Status Updates STATUS REPORT ON WW 202 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE CNU TO 20 SSE CDJ. ..GRAMS..05/08/24 ATTN...WFO...EAX...SGF...LSX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 202 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC011-037-081640- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOURBON CRAWFORD MOC011-013-015-019-027-029-033-039-051-053-057-059-065-077-083- 085-089-101-105-107-125-131-135-141-151-159-161-167-169-185-195- 215-217-225-229-081640- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTON BATES BENTON BOONE CALLAWAY CAMDEN CARROLL CEDAR COLE COOPER DADE DALLAS DENT GREENE HENRY HICKORY HOWARD JOHNSON LACLEDE LAFAYETTE MARIES MILLER MONITEAU MORGAN OSAGE PETTIS PHELPS POLK PULASKI ST. CLAIR Read more View the full article

MD 0694 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 202... FOR CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST MO Mesoscale Discussion 0694 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0858 AM CDT Wed May 08 2024 Areas affected...central to southeast MO Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 202... Valid 081358Z - 081530Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 202 continues. SUMMARY...An intense elevated supercell is expected to persist into midday, east-southeastward along the instability gradient from central to southern Missouri, with very large hail as the primary short-term threat. This storm and additional convective development will necessitate downstream watch issuance in the late morning. DISCUSSION...A large elevated supercell with a consistently strong and deep circulation will likely persist east-southeast along the tight instability gradient across southern MO. MRMS MESH values over the past half hour have been suggestive of 2-2.5 inch hail in diameter, with up to golf ball size recently reported. While this storm will remain elevated for the next couple hours, the downstream boundary layer will destabilize, especially over the MS Valley and across far southern MO along the northern edge of at least mid 60s surface dew points. It is plausible that this specific supercell could eventually impinge on the increasing MLCAPE plume. Additional storms will likely form to its immediate south-southeast through midday as the low-level warm advection regime shifts east. This would result in a greater damaging wind and eventual tornado threat as this process occurs, focused on south-central to southeast MO. ..Grams.. 05/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...SGF...EAX... LAT...LON 38719301 38609141 38169007 37758960 36978941 36608994 36569173 36739344 37079453 38199382 38719301 Read more View the full article

MD 0695 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 203... FOR EASTERN TN AND WESTERN NC Mesoscale Discussion 0695 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0956 AM CDT Wed May 08 2024 Areas affected...Eastern TN and western NC Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 203... Valid 081456Z - 081630Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 203 continues. SUMMARY...A pair of supercells will pose threats for large hail of 1-1.75 inches in diameter and damaging winds from 55-70 mph as they likely persist east-southeast across the remainder of eastern Tennessee and into western North Carolina. DISCUSSION...A pair of long-lived supercells, the easternmost of which appears to be the more intense of the two, are steadily tracking east-southeast across eastern TN. The downstream air mass continues to destabilize, with surface temperatures having warmed through the 60s to low 70s over the Great Smoky and Blue Ridge Mountains, and through the 70s to low 80s across the adjacent Piedmont. This will support the eastern extension of the TN Valley buoyancy plume which was characterized by MLCAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg per the 12Z BNA sounding. While low-level shear will remain weak per MRX VWP data, strong mid to upper-level westerlies will support persistence of discrete supercells which may consolidate into a cluster as they emerge east of the higher terrain in the early afternoon. ..Grams.. 05/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RNK...GSP...MRX... LAT...LON 36398306 36248183 35908136 35668125 35248147 35138202 35268304 35508386 35738461 36048458 36398306 Read more View the full article

WW 0202 Status Updates STATUS REPORT ON WW 202 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW OJC TO 20 S CDJ. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0694. ..GRAMS..05/08/24 ATTN...WFO...EAX...SGF...LSX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 202 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC011-037-107-081540- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOURBON CRAWFORD LINN MOC011-013-015-019-027-029-033-037-039-051-053-057-059-065-077- 083-085-089-101-105-107-125-131-135-141-151-159-161-167-169-185- 195-215-217-225-229-081540- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTON BATES BENTON BOONE CALLAWAY CAMDEN CARROLL CASS CEDAR COLE COOPER DADE DALLAS DENT GREENE HENRY HICKORY HOWARD JOHNSON LACLEDE LAFAYETTE MARIES MILLER MONITEAU Read more View the full article

WW 0203 Status Updates STATUS FOR WATCH 0203 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more View the full article

WW 203 SEVERE TSTM NC SC TN 081405Z - 082000Z URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 203 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1005 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western North Carolina Upstate South Carolina Eastern Tennessee * Effective this Wednesday morning and afternoon from 1005 AM until 400 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter likely SUMMARY...Clusters of storms, with both bowing and embedded supercell characteristics, will likely continue into the afternoon while spreading east-southeastward across eastern Tennessee into western North Carolina and the northern part of upstate South Carolina. Scattered damaging winds of 60-70 mph and large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter can be expected. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles west northwest of Knoxville TN to 10 miles north of Charlotte NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 202... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Thompson Read more View the full article

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 AM CDT Wed May 08 2024 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVE PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI...EXTREME NORTHEASTERN AR...EXTREME SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...WESTERN/SOUTH-CENTRAL KENTUCKY...AND NORTHWESTERN TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear likely from parts of the mid Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys into the southern Plains. All severe hazards, including tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and potentially significant damaging winds are possible. Some tornadoes may be strong. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, a temporarily blocky pattern has evolved around a cutoff cyclone over the northern Great Plains. The associated 500-mb low is expected to drift erratically southeastward and fill slowly through the remainder of the period, while a series of shortwaves amplify associated synoptic troughing extending southwestward across the Intermountain West and Great Basin. Meanwhile, a northern-stream perturbation over the Upper Great Lakes, that peeled eastward off the cyclone's influence, has a compact cyclone aloft centered near ANJ. This feature should devolve into an open shortwave trough and accelerate eastward as it enters the northern stream today, reaching eastern NY and western New England around 00Z. In the southern stream, broadly cyclonic flow will prevail over the western CONUS. A weak perturbation -- apparent in moisture-channel imagery over the central Gulf of California -- should move east-northeastward through the period, reaching northern Coahuila and adjoining southwest TX around 00Z, then parts of LA/northern MS by the end of the period. Downstream perturbations over the Southeast and central/southern Appalachians should be predominantly convectively derived. At 11Z, a surface lows were evident over southwestern ND and between OFK-YKN, along an occluded front. An occluded/cold front arched from the NE low across northeastern KS to another weak low near CNU, then southwestward over southwestern OK and the TX South Plains. Today, the cold front will overtake the northern part of a dryline now over northwest TX to the Big Bend region. By 00Z, the front and dryline together will act as a western limit of substantial convective/severe potential, from eastern OK to north-central/central TX. A Gulf warm front over northeastern OK and central/northeastern AR was moving northward and should cross the Ozarks this morning, moving into southern MO. A progressive outflow boundary was apparent from northern VA across southern WV, southeastern KY, to northern parts of middle/western TN and southeastern MO. The western part of this boundary is stalling, and soon should retreat northward through the rest of the morning across parts of western KY and southeastern MO, essentially linking with the warm front to form a baroclinic zone focusing the greatest of today's severe risks. ...Ozarks to Mid Mississippi, lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys... A complicated, potentially dangerous severe-weather event is possible today into this evening. Multiple rounds of strong-severe thunderstorms are expected today across this region, additively contributing enough severe hazard for the "moderate" (level 4 of 5) risk area. A swath of damaging to severe gusts and at least a few embedded tornadoes are likely to accompany a complex of thunderstorms from southern MO across parts of the multi-state area near the Ohio/Mississippi River junction, to at least northern parts of the Tennessee Valley region. The main MCS should move east-southeastward to southeastward along and near the instability gradient associated with the aforementioned outflow boundary. Before and during that process, several supercells are expected, offering tornadoes (a few potentially significant/EF2+), large to very large hail, and localized severe gusts. An ongoing area of strong-severe thunderstorms across portions of MO should pose mainly a severe-hail threat for another couple hours, though the gust potential will increase as it grows upscale. See severe thunderstorm watch 202 and related mesoscale discussions for the near-term threat. As the morning progresses, the wind threat will ramp up further, with some tornado potential starting as well, as this activity and/or additional convection developing later over western MO interacts with 1) a northward-moving plume of surface-based inflow air and 2) rich low-level moisture now found south of the outflow boundary. Meanwhile, diurnal destabilization of an already richly moist airmass south of the boundary will grow MLCAPE commonly into the 3000-4000 J/kg range, beneath favorable (50-60 kt) deep shear. Low-level shear/vorticity, SRH and hodograph size will peak near the boundary, supporting a corridor of relatively maximized tornado potential with any sustained/discrete or semi-discrete supercells in the area, as well as a focus for MCS forward propagation from the northwest. MCS activity should merge upscale further this evening and tonight, maintaining severe-wind potential into parts of the Tennessee Valley region before moving into gradually less instability late tonight. ...Eastern OK to AR, Mid-South and central TX... Thunderstorms should develop by late afternoon near the front and dryline, as a combination of lift along those boundaries and strong surface heating combine with very rich low-level moisture to erode the EML cap sampled well by the 12Z FWD RAOB. Large to giant hail, occasional severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are possible as activity shifts eastward to northeastward across central/east TX, the Arklatex, and AR through the evening. The northern part of this convection may merge with or be overtaken by MCS activity moving out of MO and into parts of the Mid-South. The afternoon/preconvective environment should be characterized by steep low/middle level lapse rates on either side of the weakening cap, along with surface dewpoints commonly in the 70s F. This will contribute to strong buoyancy with the peak/preconvective MLCAPE reaching 4500-5500 J/kg, and SBCAPE values topping 6000 J/kg. Although near-surface flow generally will be 10 kt or less, limiting lowest-km hodographs/shear, effective-shear magnitudes in the 40-55-kt range indicate supercells will be possible. These will be capable of very large/destructive hail exceeding 3 inches in diameter. Clusters or upscale mergers of convection also may offer deep, precip-loaded, hail-cooled downdrafts with locally severe gusts. Cell mergers and interactions with boundaries will factor into tornado potential on the storm scale, since the environmental low-level shear appears on the margins. ...Southern Appalachians/Cumberland Plateau into Carolinas... Thunderstorms are ongoing along and behind the outflow boundary near the TN/KY border area, and may pose a severe threat through the remainder of the morning while moving generally southeastward. See SPC mesoscale discussion 693 for near-term details. Further intensification and/or additional development is possible into the afternoon over and east of the mountains, moving into an environment of favorable moisture and diurnal destabilization. MLCAPE in the 1500-2500 J/kg range appears attainable, amidst roughly 35-45-kt effective-shear magnitudes. A mix of supercell and multicell modes is expected, with small bows possible, supporting localized threats for damaging wind, large hail and at least marginal tornado potential. ...Northeastern CONUS... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms may develop as soon as mid/late morning over parts of eastern NY and New England. Activity should form atop a diurnally destabilizing and weakly capped boundary layer, along/ahead of a prefrontal surface trough and behind a plume of non-severe thunderstorms and precip now crossing parts of the region. Thunderstorms should move generally eastward, offering damaging to isolated severe gusts and isolated large hail. A combination of low-level warm advection, spotty/irregular diurnal surface heating, and cooling aloft related to the approaching Great Lakes shortwave trough, will steepen low/middle-level lapse rates substantially. With favorable moisture (surface dewpoints generally 50s to low 60s F), a plume of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE should develop, amidst effective-shear magnitudes that reach 40-50 kt, and despite strongly veered/westerly surface wind components. A mix of multicell and modest supercell characteristics should be observed before activity moves over more-stable air and/or offshore, and weakens by early evening. ...Eastern SD to eastern IA and vicinity... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are possible from early afternoon in western parts to evening closer to the Mississippi River, with isolated damaging gusts, large hail and possibly a tornado or two. Activity should form in an area of deep-layer lift (including low-level convergence/mass response) related to a vorticity lobe in the southeastern part of the mid/upper-level cyclone. Associated cooling aloft will combine with residual low-level moisture (dewpoints mid 40s to mid 50s F) to yield pockets of around 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Backed low-level winds will aid convergence and storm-relative low-level flow, and may contribute to locally enlarged hodographs. ..Edwards.. 05/08/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 AM CDT Wed May 08 2024 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVE PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI...EXTREME NORTHEASTERN AR...EXTREME SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...WESTERN/SOUTH-CENTRAL KENTUCKY...AND NORTHWESTERN TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear likely from parts of the mid Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys into the southern Plains. All severe hazards, including tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and potentially significant damaging winds are possible. Some tornadoes may be strong. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, a temporarily blocky pattern has evolved around a cutoff cyclone over the northern Great Plains. The associated 500-mb low is expected to drift erratically southeastward and fill slowly through the remainder of the period, while a series of shortwaves amplify associated synoptic troughing extending southwestward across the Intermountain West and Great Basin. Meanwhile, a northern-stream perturbation over the Upper Great Lakes, that peeled eastward off the cyclone's influence, has a compact cyclone aloft centered near ANJ. This feature should devolve into an open shortwave trough and accelerate eastward as it enters the northern stream today, reaching eastern NY and western New England around 00Z. In the southern stream, broadly cyclonic flow will prevail over the western CONUS. A weak perturbation -- apparent in moisture-channel imagery over the central Gulf of California -- should move east-northeastward through the period, reaching northern Coahuila and adjoining southwest TX around 00Z, then parts of LA/northern MS by the end of the period. Downstream perturbations over the Southeast and central/southern Appalachians should be predominantly convectively derived. At 11Z, a surface lows were evident over southwestern ND and between OFK-YKN, along an occluded front. An occluded/cold front arched from the NE low across northeastern KS to another weak low near CNU, then southwestward over southwestern OK and the TX South Plains. Today, the cold front will overtake the northern part of a dryline now over northwest TX to the Big Bend region. By 00Z, the front and dryline together will act as a western limit of substantial convective/severe potential, from eastern OK to north-central/central TX. A Gulf warm front over northeastern OK and central/northeastern AR was moving northward and should cross the Ozarks this morning, moving into southern MO. A progressive outflow boundary was apparent from northern VA across southern WV, southeastern KY, to northern parts of middle/western TN and southeastern MO. The western part of this boundary is stalling, and soon should retreat northward through the rest of the morning across parts of western KY and southeastern MO, essentially linking with the warm front to form a baroclinic zone focusing the greatest of today's severe risks. ...Ozarks to Mid Mississippi, lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys... A complicated, potentially dangerous severe-weather event is possible today into this evening. Multiple rounds of strong-severe thunderstorms are expected today across this region, additively contributing enough severe hazard for the "moderate" (level 4 of 5) risk area. A swath of damaging to severe gusts and at least a few embedded tornadoes are likely to accompany a complex of thunderstorms from southern MO across parts of the multi-state area near the Ohio/Mississippi River junction, to at least northern parts of the Tennessee Valley region. The main MCS should move east-southeastward to southeastward along and near the instability gradient associated with the aforementioned outflow boundary. Before and during that process, several supercells are expected, offering tornadoes (a few potentially significant/EF2+), large to very large hail, and localized severe gusts. An ongoing area of strong-severe thunderstorms across portions of MO should pose mainly a severe-hail threat for another couple hours, though the gust potential will increase as it grows upscale. See severe thunderstorm watch 202 and related mesoscale discussions for the near-term threat. As the morning progresses, the wind threat will ramp up further, with some tornado potential starting as well, as this activity and/or additional convection developing later over western MO interacts with 1) a northward-moving plume of surface-based inflow air and 2) rich low-level moisture now found south of the outflow boundary. Meanwhile, diurnal destabilization of an already richly moist airmass south of the boundary will grow MLCAPE commonly into the 3000-4000 J/kg range, beneath favorable (50-60 kt) deep shear. Low-level shear/vorticity, SRH and hodograph size will peak near the boundary, supporting a corridor of relatively maximized tornado potential with any sustained/discrete or semi-discrete supercells in the area, as well as a focus for MCS forward propagation from the northwest. MCS activity should merge upscale further this evening and tonight, maintaining severe-wind potential into parts of the Tennessee Valley region before moving into gradually less instability late tonight. ...Eastern OK to AR, Mid-South and central TX... Thunderstorms should develop by late afternoon near the front and dryline, as a combination of lift along those boundaries and strong surface heating combine with very rich low-level moisture to erode the EML cap sampled well by the 12Z FWD RAOB. Large to giant hail, occasional severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are possible as activity shifts eastward to northeastward across central/east TX, the Arklatex, and AR through the evening. The northern part of this convection may merge with or be overtaken by MCS activity moving out of MO and into parts of the Mid-South. The afternoon/preconvective environment should be characterized by steep low/middle level lapse rates on either side of the weakening cap, along with surface dewpoints commonly in the 70s F. This will contribute to strong buoyancy with the peak/preconvective MLCAPE reaching 4500-5500 J/kg, and SBCAPE values topping 6000 J/kg. Although near-surface flow generally will be 10 kt or less, limiting lowest-km hodographs/shear, effective-shear magnitudes in the 40-55-kt range indicate supercells will be possible. These will be capable of very large/destructive hail exceeding 3 inches in diameter. Clusters or upscale mergers of convection also may offer deep, precip-loaded, hail-cooled downdrafts with locally severe gusts. Cell mergers and interactions with boundaries will factor into tornado potential on the storm scale, since the environmental low-level shear appears on the margins. ...Southern Appalachians/Cumberland Plateau into Carolinas... Thunderstorms are ongoing along and behind the outflow boundary near the TN/KY border area, and may pose a severe threat through the remainder of the morning while moving generally southeastward. See SPC mesoscale discussion 693 for near-term details. Further intensification and/or additional development is possible into the afternoon over and east of the mountains, moving into an environment of favorable moisture and diurnal destabilization. MLCAPE in the 1500-2500 J/kg range appears attainable, amidst roughly 35-45-kt effective-shear magnitudes. A mix of supercell and multicell modes is expected, with small bows possible, supporting localized threats for damaging wind, large hail and at least marginal tornado potential. ...Northeastern CONUS... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms may develop as soon as mid/late morning over parts of eastern NY and New England. Activity should form atop a diurnally destabilizing and weakly capped boundary layer, along/ahead of a prefrontal surface trough and behind a plume of non-severe thunderstorms and precip now crossing parts of the region. Thunderstorms should move generally eastward, offering damaging to isolated severe gusts and isolated large hail. A combination of low-level warm advection, spotty/irregular diurnal surface heating, and cooling aloft related to the approaching Great Lakes shortwave trough, will steepen low/middle-level lapse rates substantially. With favorable moisture (surface dewpoints generally 50s to low 60s F), a plume of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE should develop, amidst effective-shear magnitudes that reach 40-50 kt, and despite strongly veered/westerly surface wind components. A mix of multicell and modest supercell characteristics should be observed before activity moves over more-stable air and/or offshore, and weakens by early evening. ...Eastern SD to eastern IA and vicinity... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are possible from early afternoon in western parts to evening closer to the Mississippi River, with isolated damaging gusts, large hail and possibly a tornado or two. Activity should form in an area of deep-layer lift (including low-level convergence/mass response) related to a vorticity lobe in the southeastern part of the mid/upper-level cyclone. Associated cooling aloft will combine with residual low-level moisture (dewpoints mid 40s to mid 50s F) to yield pockets of around 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Backed low-level winds will aid convergence and storm-relative low-level flow, and may contribute to locally enlarged hodographs. ..Edwards.. 05/08/2024 Read more View the full article

WW 0202 Status Updates STATUS FOR WATCH 0202 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more View the full article

WW 0202 Status Updates STATUS FOR WATCH 0202 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more View the full article

WW 0202 Status Updates STATUS FOR WATCH 0202 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more View the full article

WW 202 SEVERE TSTM KS MO 081150Z - 081900Z URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 202 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 650 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Extreme eastern Kansas Western and central Missouri * Effective this Wednesday morning and afternoon from 650 AM until 200 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Initially elevated thunderstorms erupting near the KS/MO line will pose a threat for large to very large hail through midday as individual cells move northeastward to eastward. A portion of this activity may organize into an eastward- to southeastward-moving, upscale-growing cluster with increasing damaging-wind potential. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles north and south of a line from 15 miles west southwest of Olathe KS to Vichy MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Edwards Read more View the full article

WW 202 SEVERE TSTM KS MO 081150Z - 081900Z URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 202 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 650 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Extreme eastern Kansas Western and central Missouri * Effective this Wednesday morning and afternoon from 650 AM until 200 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Initially elevated thunderstorms erupting near the KS/MO line will pose a threat for large to very large hail through midday as individual cells move northeastward to eastward. A portion of this activity may organize into an eastward- to southeastward-moving, upscale-growing cluster with increasing damaging-wind potential. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles north and south of a line from 15 miles west southwest of Olathe KS to Vichy MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Edwards Read more View the full article

MD 0692 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN KANSAS...CENTRAL AND WESTERN MISSOURI Mesoscale Discussion 0692 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0614 AM CDT Wed May 08 2024 Areas affected...Eastern Kansas...Central and Western Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 081114Z - 081315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...The threat for large hail will likely continue, as storm coverage gradually expands over the next couple of hours from eastern Kansas into western and central Missouri. New weather watch issuance may be needed within the next 1 to 2 hours. DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery from Topeka, KS shows a small cluster of strong to severe storms across far eastern Kansas. This convection is expected to continue to increase in coverage, developing eastward into west-central Missouri. The storms are located along the northern edge of moderate instability, where the RAP has MUCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. In addition, RAP forecast soundings in the vicinity have effective shear near 60 knots, with 700-500 mb lapse rates of 8.5 C/km. This will support elevated supercells capable of an isolated large hail threat. The threat should increase as the storms move eastward along a strong gradient of instability, into western and central Missouri over the next few hours. ..Broyles/Edwards.. 05/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 37769226 38139189 38579188 38859203 38979251 38849468 38589542 38189555 37839527 37739411 37769226 Read more View the full article

Dense Fog Advisory issued May 8 at 6:49AM EDT until May 8 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Tallahassee FLView the full article

Special Weather Statement issued May 8 at 6:19AM EDT by NWS Jacksonville FLView the full article

Special Weather Statement issued May 8 at 6:18AM EDT by NWS Jacksonville FLView the full article

WW 0200 Status Updates STATUS REPORT ON WW 200 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W PBF TO 20 NE LIT TO 30 ESE BVX TO 40 S CGI. ..BROYLES..05/08/24 ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 200 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-031-035-037-077-085-093-095-107-111-117-123-147-081040- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN CROSS LEE LONOKE MISSISSIPPI MONROE PHILLIPS POINSETT PRAIRIE ST. FRANCIS WOODRUFF MSC033-137-143-081040- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DESOTO TATE TUNICA MOC155-081040- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more View the full article

WW 0200 Status Updates STATUS REPORT ON WW 200 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W PBF TO 20 NE LIT TO 30 ESE BVX TO 40 S CGI. ..BROYLES..05/08/24 ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 200 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-031-035-037-077-085-093-095-107-111-117-123-147-081040- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN CROSS LEE LONOKE MISSISSIPPI MONROE PHILLIPS POINSETT PRAIRIE ST. FRANCIS WOODRUFF MSC033-137-143-081040- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DESOTO TATE TUNICA MOC155-081040- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more View the full article

WW 0200 Status Updates STATUS REPORT ON WW 200 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W PBF TO 20 NE LIT TO 30 ESE BVX TO 40 S CGI. ..BROYLES..05/08/24 ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 200 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-031-035-037-077-085-093-095-107-111-117-123-147-081040- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN CROSS LEE LONOKE MISSISSIPPI MONROE PHILLIPS POINSETT PRAIRIE ST. FRANCIS WOODRUFF MSC033-137-143-081040- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DESOTO TATE TUNICA MOC155-081040- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more View the full article

WW 0201 Status Updates STATUS REPORT ON WW 201 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW DYR TO 25 ESE PAH TO 25 NE BWG. ..BROYLES..05/08/24 ATTN...WFO...PAH...LMK... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 201 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC035-047-075-083-105-141-157-213-219-221-227-081040- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALLOWAY CHRISTIAN FULTON GRAVES HICKMAN LOGAN MARSHALL SIMPSON TODD TRIGG WARREN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more View the full article

WW 0201 Status Updates STATUS REPORT ON WW 201 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW DYR TO 25 ESE PAH TO 25 NE BWG. ..BROYLES..05/08/24 ATTN...WFO...PAH...LMK... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 201 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC035-047-075-083-105-141-157-213-219-221-227-081040- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALLOWAY CHRISTIAN FULTON GRAVES HICKMAN LOGAN MARSHALL SIMPSON TODD TRIGG WARREN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more View the full article

WW 0201 Status Updates STATUS REPORT ON WW 201 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW DYR TO 25 ESE PAH TO 25 NE BWG. ..BROYLES..05/08/24 ATTN...WFO...PAH...LMK... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 201 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC035-047-075-083-105-141-157-213-219-221-227-081040- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALLOWAY CHRISTIAN FULTON GRAVES HICKMAN LOGAN MARSHALL SIMPSON TODD TRIGG WARREN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more View the full article

Special Weather Statement issued May 8 at 5:38AM EDT by NWS Tallahassee FLView the full article

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Wed May 08 2024 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential on Day 4/Saturday should remain rather limited across the CONUS, as a cold front continues southward over the FL Peninsula. Still, post-frontal low-level easterly flow should occur across parts of northern Mexico into south TX. With steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear present over this region, any thunderstorm that can form and move off the higher terrain of northern Mexico could some hail and gusty winds. Even so, the overall severe threat currently appears too limited/isolated to add a 15% severe area across south TX. From Day 5/Sunday into early next week, a weak upper trough/low should progress slowly eastward from the Southwest across the southern/central Plains, and eventually the MS Valley. Weak low-level mass response ahead of this feature should encourage a northward return of rich low-level moisture over parts of the southern Plains and lower MS Valley/Southeast. Some severe risk may exist each day across these regions. But, differences in evolution of the upper trough, along with uncertainty in how far inland the rich/moist low-level airmass will be able to advance, suggest predictability remains too low to include any severe areas. Read more View the full article