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Flood Warning issued April 16 at 10:20AM EDT by NWS Jacksonville FLView the full article

Flood Warning issued April 16 at 10:03AM EDT until April 19 at 6:00PM EDT by NWS Charleston SCView the full article

Flood Warning issued April 16 at 10:03AM EDT until April 18 at 11:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston SCView the full article

Flood Warning issued April 16 at 9:05AM EDT by NWS Jacksonville FLView the full article

Flood Warning issued April 16 at 9:05AM EDT until April 20 at 2:00AM EDT by NWS Jacksonville FLView the full article

Flood Warning issued April 16 at 9:05AM EDT until April 18 at 5:01AM EDT by NWS Jacksonville FLView the full article

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF IOWA...NORTHERN MISSOURI...AND NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms appear likely today, centered mostly over northern Missouri, Iowa, and northwestern Illinois. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes should occur in this corridor. More isolated activity could develop as far south as the Ozarks of northern Arkansas. ...Synopsis... An upper trough/low over the central Plains this morning will continue to eject east-northeastward across the mid MO Valley and Upper Midwest through tonight. A 70-90 kt mid-level jet will overspread parts of the Midwest through the day, contributing to substantial deep-layer shear and thunderstorm organization. At the surface, a 990 mb low over central NE will likewise develop east-northeastward through the day in tandem with the upper wave. A warm front should lift northward across parts of the Midwest, with generally low to mid 60s surface dewpoints present across the warm sector as far south as the Ozarks. A composite Pacific cold front/dryline will move quickly eastward from the southern/central Plains into the mid Ms Valley by this evening. This boundary should stall across the southern Plains, and may begin to lift northward late tonight. ...Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley... A large area of showers and thunderstorms is ongoing this morning from parts of eastern KS/NE/SD into IA. Much of this activity across the central Plains is being driven by large-scale ascent associated with the ejecting upper trough/low, along with strong warm/moist advection with a 40-50 kt southerly low-level jet. As this convection continues to spread eastward this morning in tandem with the migrating low-level jet axis, it will probably become more elevated, especially as it moves into northern MO and IA and a less unstable airmass to the north of the warm front. Still, an isolated severe threat may persist in the short term with these thunderstorms. The effect of this early-day convection on robust destabilization in its wake along/ahead of the cold front remains a concern and potentially limiting factor for additional severe thunderstorm development this afternoon. Even so, most guidance, including multiple recent runs of the RAP, shows a narrow corridor of weak to moderate instability developing along/south of the warm front in IA, and ahead of the cold front sweeping eastward across MO/IA. This re-destabilization should be aided by a pocket of steep mid-level lapse rates and cold temperatures aloft on the southeast side of the upper trough/low. Assuming that low to mid 60s surface dewpoints and modest daytime heating can aid in this instability actually materializing, then a risk for supercells should exist over parts of IA, northern MO, and northwestern IL. Both low-level and deep-layer shear appear strong enough for supercells. Steep lapse rates will aid in hail production, with some chance for 2+ inch diameter stones with the more robust cores. Tornadoes will also be a concern, as the enhanced boundary-layer flow and enlarged/curved hodographs associated with a the low-level jet will aid in updraft rotation. The best tornado potential will probably be focused along/near the warm front in IA, where the greatest low-level shear is forecast. Here, a strong tornado appears possible. Isolated to scattered damaging winds may also occur. Farther south into the Ozarks and Mid-South, the potential for severe thunderstorms appears more conditional. Various NAM/RAP forecast soundings exhibit generally poor lapse rates, with at least weak inhibition through much of the period. Given these regions displacement from the upper trough/low to the north, it remains unclear how robust updrafts will be in a more marginal low/mid-level lapse rate environment. Still, have maintained the Slight Risk into parts of the lower MS Valley, but convection may struggle to intensify this afternoon/evening. ..Gleason/Grams.. 04/16/2024 Read more View the full article

WW 0115 Status Updates STATUS REPORT ON WW 115 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW EMP TO 40 SSW FNB. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0456. ..GRAMS..04/16/24 ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 115 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC001-003-013-031-045-059-073-085-087-111-139-177-197-207- 161340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN ANDERSON BROWN COFFEY DOUGLAS FRANKLIN GREENWOOD JACKSON JEFFERSON LYON OSAGE SHAWNEE WABAUNSEE WOODSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more View the full article

WW 115 TORNADO KS 160930Z - 161400Z URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 115 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 430 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern Kansas * Effective this Tuesday morning from 430 AM until 900 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Supercells capable of producing all severe hazards will move eastward this morning. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles north northeast of Manhattan KS to 45 miles south of Emporia KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 114... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 22035. ...Gleason Read more View the full article

WW 0114 Status Updates STATUS REPORT ON WW 114 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW TOP TO 35 W BIE TO 10 SSW OLU. WW 114 IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 161300Z. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0456. ..GRAMS..04/16/24 ATTN...WFO...TOP...OAX...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 114 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC071-085-129-155-161300- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FREMONT HARRISON MILLS POTTAWATTAMIE KSC131-161300- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE NEMAHA NEC021-023-025-037-039-053-055-067-097-109-127-131-133-147-151- 153-155-159-167-177-161300- NE Read more View the full article

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Friday/D4, an upper low is forecast to move across Ontario, with an expansive low-amplitude trough sweeping east across the northern Plains and Great Lakes. This associated trough is expected to broaden and deepen over the next several days, becoming centered over Hudson Bay. The end result will be gradually expanding high pressure over much of the CONUS, with moisture shunted farther south each day. For Friday, a front is expected to stretch from TX across the Southeast and toward the Mid Atlantic, with robust low-level moisture to the south. While this will support destabilization, the boundary will largely be south of the strong winds aloft, with less shear potential. Scattered daytime thunderstorms are likely Friday along the front, with thunderstorm chances increasing over the southern Plains on Saturday/D5. While a minor southern-stream wave may move across the Southwest and northern Mexico on Saturday, shear is forecast to be weak. High pressure is then forecast to shift south across the Plains and into the Southeast as the Hudson Bay and eastern North American trough develops, with little if any severe threat beyond Saturday/D5. Read more View the full article

Special Weather Statement issued April 16 at 3:15AM EDT by NWS Peachtree City GAView the full article

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...Synopsis... In the mid levels, the flow pattern aloft is forecast to quickly de-amplify and trend more zonal as the Midwest upper low rapidly fills. Lingering strong westerly flow is likely over the southern Rockies and High Plains through Wednesday. A weak lee cyclone is expected to form over parts of eastern CO, supporting gusty surface winds to the west across parts of eastern NM. Elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible across parts of the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains... Elevated to brief locally critical fire-weather conditions appear possible over parts of the southern High plains/Rockies as the southeastern CO low develops on Wednesday afternoon. Winds of 15-20 mph will overlap low RH of around 10-15% atop dry fuels. Fire weather concerns are most likely near the terrain to the southwest of the surface low over eastern NM and far southern CO. Here winds and downslope drying are expected to be the strongest with the longest duration for a few hours during the afternoon. ..Lyons.. 04/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

Flood Warning issued April 15 at 9:55PM EDT until April 19 at 11:00PM EDT by NWS Tallahassee FLView the full article

Flood Warning issued April 15 at 9:55PM EDT until April 17 at 12:30PM EDT by NWS Tallahassee FLView the full article

Flood Warning issued April 15 at 9:20PM EDT until April 19 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston SCView the full article

Flood Warning issued April 15 at 9:20PM EDT until April 18 at 2:00PM EDT by NWS Charleston SCView the full article

Flood Warning issued April 15 at 8:53PM EDT by NWS Jacksonville FLView the full article

WW 0109 Status Updates STATUS FOR WATCH 0109 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more View the full article

WW 109 SEVERE TSTM DC DE MD VA WV CW 151750Z - 160200Z URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 109 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 150 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Southern Delaware Central and Eastern Maryland Virginia Central and Eastern West Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 150 PM until 1000 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Broken bands of strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon and move east-southeast through the mid evening. Scattered severe gusts capable of wind damage will be possible with the stronger cores and outflow winds. Large hail may accompany the early cellular storm activity. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles west northwest of Beckley WV to 30 miles east southeast of Wallops VA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29035. ...Smith Read more View the full article

MD 0439 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF WEST VIRGINIA...VIRGINIA...MARYLAND...AND DELAWARE Mesoscale Discussion 0439 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1203 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Areas affected...portions of West Virginia...Virginia...Maryland...and Delaware Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 151703Z - 151900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity is expected to increase by 3-4pm EDT. Damaging gusts to 60-70 mph and large hail to 1.5 inches in diameter will be possible through early evening. DISCUSSION...Gradual destabilization is occurring from west to east early this afternoon across the MCD region. Increasing cumulus development is noted over the past hour across the higher terrain of West Virginia into northern Virginia as temperatures have warmed into the 70s to low 80s. The 12z MPAS-HT high-res guidance appears to have the best handle on morning convection across the region, and in the expected convective evolution through early evening. Based on this guidance, and current observed trends, thunderstorm activity is expected to increase by 19-20z/3-4pm EDT near/south of a residual frontal boundary draped west to east across the region. This development will be aided by continued heating/destabilization, increasing midlevel moisture and a very steep low and midlevel lapse rate environment (midlevel lapse rates around 8 C/km with southward extent across VA). While low-level winds will remain light, a belt of 30-40 kt midlevel flow will foster effective shear magnitudes suitable for organized convection. Initial cellular activity will pose a risk for large hail and strong gusts. Meanwhile, a deeply mixed boundary-layer with inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles suggest strong outflow winds will occur with this activity and clustering is likely to occur via outflow interactions. A damaging wind threat will increase with southeastward extent across Virginia toward the Chesapeake Bay vicinity where steep low-level lapse rates and DCAPE over 1000 J/kg will be focused. A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed for portions of the MCD vicinity by 18-19z. ..Leitman/Smith.. 04/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX... LAT...LON 39387892 39417647 39277553 38927496 38717477 38077471 36797576 36617617 36577708 36797916 36977959 37708109 38248124 38618114 38868058 39157996 39387892 Read more View the full article

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... Morning observed soundings within the High Plains region showed shallow moisture along with a shallow temperature inversion. This should allow surface temperatures to rapidly rise into the afternoon along with moisture mixing out quite efficiently. Widespread critical fire weather is expected today. Extremely critical conditions appear probable at least on a localized basis. Within the Missouri Valley, morning surface observations already show ongoing elevated to borderline critical conditions, which is ahead of even the drier/windier deterministic model solutions. Given pockets of receptive fuels, particularly with southwestern extent, several hours of elevated to locally critical conditions are possible. RH should eventually increase from southwest to northeast as the warm front lifts northward with time. ..Wendt.. 04/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper low and strong jet streak are forecast to intensify and eject eastward over the Great Plains today and tonight. A lee low should rapidly deepen over central High Plains with surface pressure falls and the strong flow aloft bolstering strong surface winds over much of the Plains. Hot and dry surface conditions atop drying fuels will allow for widespread critical and localized extremely critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southern and central High Plains... As the main upper low phases with the subtropical jet, 70+ kt mid-level flow will shift eastward and cross the Rockies late in the afternoon and evening. The rapidly deepening lee low will force strong west/southwest flow downslope over the High Plains behind a dryline forecast to mix near 100 degrees west. Sustained surface winds of 25-40 mph are possible behind the dryline given the strong pressure falls and enhanced momentum transfer from increasing flow aloft. Minimum RH values are also expected to be critically low, falling to 10-15% over much of the High Plains. Widespread dry and receptive fuels, combined with strong wind gusts and very dry surface conditions, will support ubiquitous high-end critical fire-weather concerns from eastern CO and western KS, into parts of the Panhandles, and eastern NM/west TX. Localized extremely critical conditions also appear possible as strong winds continue to increase into the late afternoon and evening hours. The most likely corridors for localized extreme conditions will exist from southeastern CO into parts of western KS and the northwestern Panhandles, and across parts of the southwest TX. Here, the overlap of the strongest flow aloft and single digit RH is possible for a few hours late in the afternoon. Uncertainty on the duration of extreme conditions remains too large to introduce any Extremely Critical areas. Considerable uncertainty also exists on the positioning of the dryline and the amount of mid and high-level cloud cover. Will maintain a broader Elevated area to capture the potential for more brief fire-weather conditions should the dryline mix farther east. ...Missouri Valley... Locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible in parts of northwestern Iowa into southeast South Dakota this afternoon. Dry air ahead of the warm front and gusty winds will increase prior to precipitation arriving during the evening/overnight. With these dry/windy conditions occurring primarily over marginally dry fuels and over a limited duration, the threat is likely to remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... Isolated to scattered large hail and isolated severe wind gusts are evident on D4/Thursday from the Ozark Plateau into central TX. Low probability severe may persist into D5-6, mainly across parts of TX, with severe potential appearing negligible around D7-8. A northern-stream mid/upper trough should shift east from the Northwest into the Upper Midwest on D4. A more piecemeal eastward evolution is progged into the weekend amid multiple embedded impulses. The southern stream is expected to remain relatively weak and quasi-zonal, although there are indications of lower-amplitude impulses migrating through the flow. The best potential for severe appears focused on D4. Both the 00Z NAM/ECMWF hint at elevated convection developing across the central Great Plains late D3 on Thursday morning within a strengthening low-level warm theta-e advection regime south of the trough shifting into the Upper Midwest. Robust diabatic heating is expected in the warm-moist sector over the southern Great Plains, with the largest buoyancy so far this week ahead of the dryline in TX. As surface ridging noses down the High Plains, a lee cyclone will be forced east-southeast into OK as a developing frontal wave. Above-average agreement exists across guidance with surface-based convective development along both the southwest/northeast-oriented baroclinic zone and dryline. Primary uncertainty with southern extent is the degree of deep-layer shear as wind profiles appear weak to modest over most of the larger buoyancy plume. Have delineated a 15 percent area where potential for a few supercells and multicell clusters is evident on Thursday afternoon, with an implied lower severe probability extending farther southwest through much of central TX. Read more View the full article

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE LOWER OH VALLEY TO MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday afternoon to early evening across parts of the Lower to Central Ohio Valley into the Mid-South. ...Parts of the Midwest to Mid-South... Occluding surface cyclone in the northeast IA vicinity on Wednesday morning will further dampen as it tracks towards Lower MI. Despite weakening tropospheric flow fields, favorable low to deep-layer shear profiles should persist into early evening. The northeast lobe of the warm-moist sector emanating from the western Gulf should spread across at least the Lower OH Valley. While some low-level warm theta-e advection-driven convection may be ongoing at 12Z Wednesday, overall signals have been for less convection impacting the buoyancy plume compared to prior forecasts. As such, potential for greater daytime destabilization is apparent, with a moderate MLCAPE field from 1000-2000 J/kg likely. Most guidance suggests early afternoon convective initiation will occur along the cold front trailing south-southwest from the occluding cyclone. A mix of all severe hazards appears possible with both supercells and multicell clusters. Greatest convective concentration is expected near/north of the Lower to Central Ohio Valley. The buoyancy plume should be more confined within this corridor and eventually pinch off as overturning occurs. With further diminishing of flow fields into the evening, the severe threat will wane after dusk. ..Grams.. 04/15/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... As the upper low ejects eastward over the Plains and into the Midwest, strong flow aloft will gradually weaken from west to east. The associated surface low and trailing front/dryline will move eastward as a secondary cold front moves in from the north. Gusty winds and low humidity will remain possible over parts of the southern and central Plains. However, the duration and coverage of critical conditions is uncertain. ...Southern High Plains to the Texas Big Bend... As the strong upper low lifts away to the northeast early D2/Tuesday, winds aloft will slowly diminish across the southern High Plains through the day. Still, downslope west/northwesterly flow will favor dry and warm surface conditions over much of eastern NM and west TX. Surface wind gusts of 15-20 mph are expected through part of the day along with RH below 20%. While not overly robust, a few hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions still appear likely given widespread dry fuels. Localized fire-weather conditions may also briefly develop farther east into portions of central/eastern KS Tuesday afternoon. Gusty winds and lower humidity will remain possible, ahead of the secondary cold front moving south. However, the limited duration and uncertainty on precipitation from the previous day suggest this threat will be brief and localized. ..Lyons.. 04/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article