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Public Severe Weather Outlook PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1154 AM CDT TUE APR 02 2024 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and Southeast this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Kentucky Ohio Indiana West Virginia Alabama Tennessee Western/central Georgia Northeastern Mississippi Far southeastern Illinois Far southwestern Virginia * HAZARDS... Several tornadoes, a few intense Scattered damaging winds, some hurricane force Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... A severe weather outbreak is possible through this evening over the Ohio Valley with the broader severe weather risk including parts of the Southeast. Strong and potentially long-track tornadoes are possible from Indiana and Ohio southward into the Mid South. A threat for strong tornadoes may focus this evening into tonight across parts of Alabama and Georgia. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado Read more View the full article

Public Severe Weather Outlook PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1154 AM CDT TUE APR 02 2024 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and Southeast this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Kentucky Ohio Indiana West Virginia Alabama Tennessee Western/central Georgia Northeastern Mississippi Far southeastern Illinois Far southwestern Virginia * HAZARDS... Several tornadoes, a few intense Scattered damaging winds, some hurricane force Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... A severe weather outbreak is possible through this evening over the Ohio Valley with the broader severe weather risk including parts of the Southeast. Strong and potentially long-track tornadoes are possible from Indiana and Ohio southward into the Mid South. A threat for strong tornadoes may focus this evening into tonight across parts of Alabama and Georgia. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado Read more View the full article

Public Severe Weather Outlook PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1154 AM CDT TUE APR 02 2024 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and Southeast this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Kentucky Ohio Indiana West Virginia Alabama Tennessee Western/central Georgia Northeastern Mississippi Far southeastern Illinois Far southwestern Virginia * HAZARDS... Several tornadoes, a few intense Scattered damaging winds, some hurricane force Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... A severe weather outbreak is possible through this evening over the Ohio Valley with the broader severe weather risk including parts of the Southeast. Strong and potentially long-track tornadoes are possible from Indiana and Ohio southward into the Mid South. A threat for strong tornadoes may focus this evening into tonight across parts of Alabama and Georgia. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado Read more View the full article

Public Severe Weather Outlook PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1154 AM CDT TUE APR 02 2024 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and Southeast this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Kentucky Ohio Indiana West Virginia Alabama Tennessee Western/central Georgia Northeastern Mississippi Far southeastern Illinois Far southwestern Virginia * HAZARDS... Several tornadoes, a few intense Scattered damaging winds, some hurricane force Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... A severe weather outbreak is possible through this evening over the Ohio Valley with the broader severe weather risk including parts of the Southeast. Strong and potentially long-track tornadoes are possible from Indiana and Ohio southward into the Mid South. A threat for strong tornadoes may focus this evening into tonight across parts of Alabama and Georgia. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado Read more View the full article

Public Severe Weather Outlook PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1154 AM CDT TUE APR 02 2024 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and Southeast this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Kentucky Ohio Indiana West Virginia Alabama Tennessee Western/central Georgia Northeastern Mississippi Far southeastern Illinois Far southwestern Virginia * HAZARDS... Several tornadoes, a few intense Scattered damaging winds, some hurricane force Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... A severe weather outbreak is possible through this evening over the Ohio Valley with the broader severe weather risk including parts of the Southeast. Strong and potentially long-track tornadoes are possible from Indiana and Ohio southward into the Mid South. A threat for strong tornadoes may focus this evening into tonight across parts of Alabama and Georgia. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado Read more View the full article

Public Severe Weather Outlook PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1154 AM CDT TUE APR 02 2024 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and Southeast this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Kentucky Ohio Indiana West Virginia Alabama Tennessee Western/central Georgia Northeastern Mississippi Far southeastern Illinois Far southwestern Virginia * HAZARDS... Several tornadoes, a few intense Scattered damaging winds, some hurricane force Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... A severe weather outbreak is possible through this evening over the Ohio Valley with the broader severe weather risk including parts of the Southeast. Strong and potentially long-track tornadoes are possible from Indiana and Ohio southward into the Mid South. A threat for strong tornadoes may focus this evening into tonight across parts of Alabama and Georgia. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado Read more View the full article

Public Severe Weather Outlook PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1154 AM CDT TUE APR 02 2024 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and Southeast this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Kentucky Ohio Indiana West Virginia Alabama Tennessee Western/central Georgia Northeastern Mississippi Far southeastern Illinois Far southwestern Virginia * HAZARDS... Several tornadoes, a few intense Scattered damaging winds, some hurricane force Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... A severe weather outbreak is possible through this evening over the Ohio Valley with the broader severe weather risk including parts of the Southeast. Strong and potentially long-track tornadoes are possible from Indiana and Ohio southward into the Mid South. A threat for strong tornadoes may focus this evening into tonight across parts of Alabama and Georgia. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado Read more View the full article

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same, and no changes were made with this update. Latest surface observations show dry/breezy conditions developing across portions of the southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande in south-central TX. While these elevated to locally/briefly critical meteorological conditions should persist into early evening, below-normal fuel loading in this area suggests limited potential for large fires -- precluding highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 04/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... A trough will amplify across the Great Lakes today with a deepening surface low across Indiana. Dry, northerly flow is expected across the entire Plains today from North Dakota to Texas. Fuels are moist across most of this region and temperatures are somewhat cool. Therefore, the fire potential should remain limited. Elsewhere in the CONUS fuels are moist. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same, and no changes were made with this update. Latest surface observations show dry/breezy conditions developing across portions of the southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande in south-central TX. While these elevated to locally/briefly critical meteorological conditions should persist into early evening, below-normal fuel loading in this area suggests limited potential for large fires -- precluding highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 04/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... A trough will amplify across the Great Lakes today with a deepening surface low across Indiana. Dry, northerly flow is expected across the entire Plains today from North Dakota to Texas. Fuels are moist across most of this region and temperatures are somewhat cool. Therefore, the fire potential should remain limited. Elsewhere in the CONUS fuels are moist. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

WW 0075 Status Updates STATUS REPORT ON WW 75 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GLEASON..04/02/24 ATTN...WFO...LMK...PAH...OHX...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 75 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC001-003-009-035-045-047-053-057-087-099-137-141-169-171-207- 213-217-219-221-227-021740- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ALLEN BARREN CALLOWAY CASEY CHRISTIAN CLINTON CUMBERLAND GREEN HART LINCOLN LOGAN METCALFE MONROE RUSSELL SIMPSON TAYLOR TODD TRIGG WARREN TNC003-005-015-017-021-023-027-031-035-037-039-041-043-049-055- 061-071-077-079-081-083-085-087-099-101-109-111-117-119-125-133- 135-137-141-147-149-159-161-165-169-175-177-181-183-185-187-189- 021740- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEDFORD BENTON CANNON CARROLL CHEATHAM CHESTER CLAY COFFEE CUMBERLAND Read more View the full article

WW 0075 Status Updates STATUS REPORT ON WW 75 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GLEASON..04/02/24 ATTN...WFO...LMK...PAH...OHX...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 75 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC001-003-009-035-045-047-053-057-087-099-137-141-169-171-207- 213-217-219-221-227-021740- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ALLEN BARREN CALLOWAY CASEY CHRISTIAN CLINTON CUMBERLAND GREEN HART LINCOLN LOGAN METCALFE MONROE RUSSELL SIMPSON TAYLOR TODD TRIGG WARREN TNC003-005-015-017-021-023-027-031-035-037-039-041-043-049-055- 061-071-077-079-081-083-085-087-099-101-109-111-117-119-125-133- 135-137-141-147-149-159-161-165-169-175-177-181-183-185-187-189- 021740- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEDFORD BENTON CANNON CARROLL CHEATHAM CHESTER CLAY COFFEE CUMBERLAND Read more View the full article

WW 0074 Status Updates STATUS REPORT ON WW 74 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW BLF TO 20 ESE BKW TO 15 NNE SSU TO 30 SW EKN TO 20 S MGW. WW 74 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 021700Z. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0346 ..GLEASON..04/02/24 ATTN...WFO...RLX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 74 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WVC075-081-083-097-101-109-021700- WV . WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE POCAHONTAS RALEIGH RANDOLPH UPSHUR WEBSTER WYOMING THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more View the full article

WW 0074 Status Updates STATUS REPORT ON WW 74 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW BLF TO 20 ESE BKW TO 15 NNE SSU TO 30 SW EKN TO 20 S MGW. WW 74 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 021700Z. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0346 ..GLEASON..04/02/24 ATTN...WFO...RLX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 74 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WVC075-081-083-097-101-109-021700- WV . WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE POCAHONTAS RALEIGH RANDOLPH UPSHUR WEBSTER WYOMING THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more View the full article

WW 0074 Status Updates STATUS REPORT ON WW 74 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW BLF TO 20 ESE BKW TO 15 NNE SSU TO 30 SW EKN TO 20 S MGW. WW 74 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 021700Z. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0346 ..GLEASON..04/02/24 ATTN...WFO...RLX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 74 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WVC075-081-083-097-101-109-021700- WV . WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE POCAHONTAS RALEIGH RANDOLPH UPSHUR WEBSTER WYOMING THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more View the full article

WW 0074 Status Updates STATUS REPORT ON WW 74 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW BLF TO 20 ESE BKW TO 15 NNE SSU TO 30 SW EKN TO 20 S MGW. WW 74 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 021700Z. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0346 ..GLEASON..04/02/24 ATTN...WFO...RLX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 74 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WVC075-081-083-097-101-109-021700- WV . WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE POCAHONTAS RALEIGH RANDOLPH UPSHUR WEBSTER WYOMING THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more View the full article

WW 0074 Status Updates STATUS REPORT ON WW 74 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW BLF TO 20 ESE BKW TO 15 NNE SSU TO 30 SW EKN TO 20 S MGW. WW 74 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 021700Z. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0346 ..GLEASON..04/02/24 ATTN...WFO...RLX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 74 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WVC075-081-083-097-101-109-021700- WV . WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE POCAHONTAS RALEIGH RANDOLPH UPSHUR WEBSTER WYOMING THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more View the full article

WW 0074 Status Updates STATUS REPORT ON WW 74 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW BLF TO 20 ESE BKW TO 15 NNE SSU TO 30 SW EKN TO 20 S MGW. WW 74 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 021700Z. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0346 ..GLEASON..04/02/24 ATTN...WFO...RLX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 74 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WVC075-081-083-097-101-109-021700- WV . WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE POCAHONTAS RALEIGH RANDOLPH UPSHUR WEBSTER WYOMING THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more View the full article

WW 0074 Status Updates STATUS REPORT ON WW 74 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW BLF TO 20 ESE BKW TO 15 NNE SSU TO 30 SW EKN TO 20 S MGW. WW 74 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 021700Z. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0346 ..GLEASON..04/02/24 ATTN...WFO...RLX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 74 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WVC075-081-083-097-101-109-021700- WV . WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE POCAHONTAS RALEIGH RANDOLPH UPSHUR WEBSTER WYOMING THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more View the full article

WW 0074 Status Updates STATUS REPORT ON WW 74 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW BLF TO 20 ESE BKW TO 15 NNE SSU TO 30 SW EKN TO 20 S MGW. WW 74 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 021700Z. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0346 ..GLEASON..04/02/24 ATTN...WFO...RLX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 74 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WVC075-081-083-097-101-109-021700- WV . WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE POCAHONTAS RALEIGH RANDOLPH UPSHUR WEBSTER WYOMING THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more View the full article

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN KY...SOUTHEAST IN...SOUTHERN OH...AND FAR WESTERN WV... ...SUMMARY... A severe weather outbreak is possible through this evening over the Ohio Valley with the broader severe weather risk including parts of the Southeast. Strong and potentially long-track tornadoes are possible from Indiana and Ohio southward into the Mid South. A threat for strong tornadoes may focus this evening into tonight across parts of Alabama and Georgia. ...OH/TN Valley area through this evening... Complex scenario late this morning with ongoing convection across WV, trailing outflow to the west across KY, and another cluster of storms moving into the trailing outflow zone across TN/KY. The lead storms have produced damaging winds (up to 92 mph measured), though this line of storms should weaken near or just after midday as it encounters the remnant cool air wedge close to the WV/VA border. The storms farther west will move along the remnant outflow zone, where surface temperatures are in the low-mid 70s with dewpoints of 65-70 F. A couple of the storms will likely become persistent supercells capable of producing tornadoes (some of which could be strong/EF2-3) given the already strong wind profiles/long hodographs with effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2. Uncertainty is relatively high for areas north of the ongoing TN-KY-WV convection. The storms approaching middle TN and southern KY will tend to reinforce the earlier outflow, which will likely interfere with/limit destabilization this afternoon toward parts of OH (especially eastern OH). The corridor of richer low-level moisture from northeast AR into southeast MO (immediately west of the TN storms) suggests that air mass recovery will occur toward southern IL and southern/central IN by late morning into early afternoon, and southwest OH this afternoon. Strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs associated with an amplifying midlevel trough/jet and a deepening surface cyclone will support the potential for fast-moving supercells capable of all severe hazards, including strong tornadoes where sufficient low-level warming/moistening occurs in the wake of the morning convection. As previously mentioned, the northeastern extent of the primary severe threat into OH is more uncertain given the ongoing convection to the south, but will trim the northeast edge of the MDT risk area and expand south some to account for the outflow corridor enhancing the tornado threat on the mesoscale across KY. ...Eastern AL/western GA overnight... In response to the amplifying midlevel trough/deepening cyclone over the MS/OH Valleys, deep-layer flow and low-level moisture advection will increase tonight across AL/GA. A surge of upper 60s boundary-layer dewpoints and strengthening low-level shear both appear supportive of supercells/tornadoes overnight in a broken band ahead of the synoptic cold front. An isolated strong tornado or two will be possible. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 04/02/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN KY...SOUTHEAST IN...SOUTHERN OH...AND FAR WESTERN WV... ...SUMMARY... A severe weather outbreak is possible through this evening over the Ohio Valley with the broader severe weather risk including parts of the Southeast. Strong and potentially long-track tornadoes are possible from Indiana and Ohio southward into the Mid South. A threat for strong tornadoes may focus this evening into tonight across parts of Alabama and Georgia. ...OH/TN Valley area through this evening... Complex scenario late this morning with ongoing convection across WV, trailing outflow to the west across KY, and another cluster of storms moving into the trailing outflow zone across TN/KY. The lead storms have produced damaging winds (up to 92 mph measured), though this line of storms should weaken near or just after midday as it encounters the remnant cool air wedge close to the WV/VA border. The storms farther west will move along the remnant outflow zone, where surface temperatures are in the low-mid 70s with dewpoints of 65-70 F. A couple of the storms will likely become persistent supercells capable of producing tornadoes (some of which could be strong/EF2-3) given the already strong wind profiles/long hodographs with effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2. Uncertainty is relatively high for areas north of the ongoing TN-KY-WV convection. The storms approaching middle TN and southern KY will tend to reinforce the earlier outflow, which will likely interfere with/limit destabilization this afternoon toward parts of OH (especially eastern OH). The corridor of richer low-level moisture from northeast AR into southeast MO (immediately west of the TN storms) suggests that air mass recovery will occur toward southern IL and southern/central IN by late morning into early afternoon, and southwest OH this afternoon. Strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs associated with an amplifying midlevel trough/jet and a deepening surface cyclone will support the potential for fast-moving supercells capable of all severe hazards, including strong tornadoes where sufficient low-level warming/moistening occurs in the wake of the morning convection. As previously mentioned, the northeastern extent of the primary severe threat into OH is more uncertain given the ongoing convection to the south, but will trim the northeast edge of the MDT risk area and expand south some to account for the outflow corridor enhancing the tornado threat on the mesoscale across KY. ...Eastern AL/western GA overnight... In response to the amplifying midlevel trough/deepening cyclone over the MS/OH Valleys, deep-layer flow and low-level moisture advection will increase tonight across AL/GA. A surge of upper 60s boundary-layer dewpoints and strengthening low-level shear both appear supportive of supercells/tornadoes overnight in a broken band ahead of the synoptic cold front. An isolated strong tornado or two will be possible. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 04/02/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN KY...SOUTHEAST IN...SOUTHERN OH...AND FAR WESTERN WV... ...SUMMARY... A severe weather outbreak is possible through this evening over the Ohio Valley with the broader severe weather risk including parts of the Southeast. Strong and potentially long-track tornadoes are possible from Indiana and Ohio southward into the Mid South. A threat for strong tornadoes may focus this evening into tonight across parts of Alabama and Georgia. ...OH/TN Valley area through this evening... Complex scenario late this morning with ongoing convection across WV, trailing outflow to the west across KY, and another cluster of storms moving into the trailing outflow zone across TN/KY. The lead storms have produced damaging winds (up to 92 mph measured), though this line of storms should weaken near or just after midday as it encounters the remnant cool air wedge close to the WV/VA border. The storms farther west will move along the remnant outflow zone, where surface temperatures are in the low-mid 70s with dewpoints of 65-70 F. A couple of the storms will likely become persistent supercells capable of producing tornadoes (some of which could be strong/EF2-3) given the already strong wind profiles/long hodographs with effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2. Uncertainty is relatively high for areas north of the ongoing TN-KY-WV convection. The storms approaching middle TN and southern KY will tend to reinforce the earlier outflow, which will likely interfere with/limit destabilization this afternoon toward parts of OH (especially eastern OH). The corridor of richer low-level moisture from northeast AR into southeast MO (immediately west of the TN storms) suggests that air mass recovery will occur toward southern IL and southern/central IN by late morning into early afternoon, and southwest OH this afternoon. Strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs associated with an amplifying midlevel trough/jet and a deepening surface cyclone will support the potential for fast-moving supercells capable of all severe hazards, including strong tornadoes where sufficient low-level warming/moistening occurs in the wake of the morning convection. As previously mentioned, the northeastern extent of the primary severe threat into OH is more uncertain given the ongoing convection to the south, but will trim the northeast edge of the MDT risk area and expand south some to account for the outflow corridor enhancing the tornado threat on the mesoscale across KY. ...Eastern AL/western GA overnight... In response to the amplifying midlevel trough/deepening cyclone over the MS/OH Valleys, deep-layer flow and low-level moisture advection will increase tonight across AL/GA. A surge of upper 60s boundary-layer dewpoints and strengthening low-level shear both appear supportive of supercells/tornadoes overnight in a broken band ahead of the synoptic cold front. An isolated strong tornado or two will be possible. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 04/02/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN KY...SOUTHEAST IN...SOUTHERN OH...AND FAR WESTERN WV... ...SUMMARY... A severe weather outbreak is possible through this evening over the Ohio Valley with the broader severe weather risk including parts of the Southeast. Strong and potentially long-track tornadoes are possible from Indiana and Ohio southward into the Mid South. A threat for strong tornadoes may focus this evening into tonight across parts of Alabama and Georgia. ...OH/TN Valley area through this evening... Complex scenario late this morning with ongoing convection across WV, trailing outflow to the west across KY, and another cluster of storms moving into the trailing outflow zone across TN/KY. The lead storms have produced damaging winds (up to 92 mph measured), though this line of storms should weaken near or just after midday as it encounters the remnant cool air wedge close to the WV/VA border. The storms farther west will move along the remnant outflow zone, where surface temperatures are in the low-mid 70s with dewpoints of 65-70 F. A couple of the storms will likely become persistent supercells capable of producing tornadoes (some of which could be strong/EF2-3) given the already strong wind profiles/long hodographs with effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2. Uncertainty is relatively high for areas north of the ongoing TN-KY-WV convection. The storms approaching middle TN and southern KY will tend to reinforce the earlier outflow, which will likely interfere with/limit destabilization this afternoon toward parts of OH (especially eastern OH). The corridor of richer low-level moisture from northeast AR into southeast MO (immediately west of the TN storms) suggests that air mass recovery will occur toward southern IL and southern/central IN by late morning into early afternoon, and southwest OH this afternoon. Strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs associated with an amplifying midlevel trough/jet and a deepening surface cyclone will support the potential for fast-moving supercells capable of all severe hazards, including strong tornadoes where sufficient low-level warming/moistening occurs in the wake of the morning convection. As previously mentioned, the northeastern extent of the primary severe threat into OH is more uncertain given the ongoing convection to the south, but will trim the northeast edge of the MDT risk area and expand south some to account for the outflow corridor enhancing the tornado threat on the mesoscale across KY. ...Eastern AL/western GA overnight... In response to the amplifying midlevel trough/deepening cyclone over the MS/OH Valleys, deep-layer flow and low-level moisture advection will increase tonight across AL/GA. A surge of upper 60s boundary-layer dewpoints and strengthening low-level shear both appear supportive of supercells/tornadoes overnight in a broken band ahead of the synoptic cold front. An isolated strong tornado or two will be possible. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 04/02/2024 Read more View the full article

MD 0345 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN IL...EXTREME NORTHERN KY...AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL IN Mesoscale Discussion 0345 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Areas affected...Portions of far eastern IL...extreme northern KY...and southern/central IN Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 021558Z - 021830Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A gradually increasing severe hail threat should exist with slowly intensifying thunderstorms across southern Indiana and vicinity. The damaging wind and tornado threat remain less clear, but some risk may eventually develop this afternoon. Trends will be monitored for possible watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Convection has been gradually increasing in coverage over the past hour or so across southern IN and vicinity. This activity is largely tied to pronounced ascent associated with a very strong southwesterly mid/upper-level jet. Most of these thunderstorms are currently elevated, and located to the north of an outflow boundary related to earlier morning convection now in WV. Still, visible satellite and surface observation trends show attempts at low-level moisture returning northward ahead of these thunderstorms and filtered daytime heating across parts of southern/central IN. While MUCAPE remains weak at the moment, instability and deep-layer shear are both forecast to increase through the afternoon as a northern and southern-stream shortwave trough phase over the Midwest. This should support a threat for supercells capable of producing mainly severe hail initially. The risk for damaging winds and tornadoes this afternoon will be dependent on whether sufficient low-level moistening/warming will occur to support truly surface-based convection. Regardless of this continued uncertainty with instability, the gradually increasing severe threat over the next few hours may eventually prompt watch issuance. ..Gleason/Thompson.. 04/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX... LAT...LON 37778803 37938850 38648844 39058804 39398743 40148624 40118503 39268486 38738537 37928666 37798721 37778803 Read more View the full article

WW 0074 Status Updates STATUS REPORT ON WW 74 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E JKL TO 35 SE HTS TO 15 SSW CRW TO 5 NNW CRW TO 20 SSW PKB. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0344 ..GLEASON..04/02/24 ATTN...WFO...RLX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 74 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WVC005-007-013-015-019-021-035-039-041-045-059-067-075-081-083- 087-097-101-109-021640- WV . WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOONE BRAXTON CALHOUN CLAY FAYETTE GILMER JACKSON KANAWHA LEWIS LOGAN MINGO NICHOLAS POCAHONTAS RALEIGH RANDOLPH ROANE UPSHUR WEBSTER WYOMING THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more View the full article