NorthGeorgiaWX

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... An upper low and strong jet streak are forecast to intensify and eject eastward over the Great Plains today and tonight. A lee low should rapidly deepen over central High Plains with surface pressure falls and the strong flow aloft bolstering strong surface winds over much of the Plains. Hot and dry surface conditions atop drying fuels will allow for widespread critical and localized extremely critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southern and central High Plains... As the main upper low phases with the subtropical jet, 70+ kt mid-level flow will shift eastward and cross the Rockies late in the afternoon and evening. The rapidly deepening lee low will force strong west/southwest flow downslope over the High Plains behind a dryline forecast to mix near 100 degrees west. Sustained surface winds of 25-40 mph are possible behind the dryline given the strong pressure falls and enhanced momentum transfer from increasing flow aloft. Minimum RH values are also expected to be critically low, falling to 10-15% over much of the High Plains. Widespread dry and receptive fuels, combined with strong wind gusts and very dry surface conditions, will support ubiquitous high-end critical fire-weather concerns from eastern CO and western KS, into parts of the Panhandles, and eastern NM/west TX. Localized extremely critical conditions also appear possible as strong winds continue to increase into the late afternoon and evening hours. The most likely corridors for localized extreme conditions will exist from southeastern CO into parts of western KS and the northwestern Panhandles, and across parts of the southwest TX. Here, the overlap of the strongest flow aloft and single digit RH is possible for a few hours late in the afternoon. Uncertainty on the duration of extreme conditions remains too large to introduce any Extremely Critical areas. Considerable uncertainty also exists on the positioning of the dryline and the amount of mid and high-level cloud cover. Will maintain a broader Elevated area to capture the potential for more brief fire-weather conditions should the dryline mix farther east. ...Missouri Valley... Locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible in parts of northwestern Iowa into southeast South Dakota this afternoon. Dry air ahead of the warm front and gusty winds will increase prior to precipitation arriving during the evening/overnight. With these dry/windy conditions occurring primarily over marginally dry fuels and over a limited duration, the threat is likely to remain localized. ..Lyons.. 04/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

No watches are valid as of Mon Apr 15 03:02:01 UTC 2024.View the full article

No watches are valid as of Mon Apr 15 03:02:01 UTC 2024.View the full article

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Apr 15 03:01:04 UTC 2024.View the full article

Flood Warning issued April 14 at 9:46PM EDT until April 19 at 4:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston SCView the full article

Flood Warning issued April 14 at 9:46PM EDT until April 18 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Charleston SCView the full article

Flood Warning issued April 14 at 9:30PM EDT until April 19 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Tallahassee FLView the full article

Flood Warning issued April 14 at 9:29PM EDT until April 16 at 6:48PM EDT by NWS Tallahassee FLView the full article

Flood Warning issued April 14 at 9:23PM EDT until April 15 at 5:00PM EDT by NWS Tallahassee FLView the full article

Flood Warning issued April 14 at 9:22PM EDT by NWS Jacksonville FLView the full article

Flood Warning issued April 14 at 9:22PM EDT until April 19 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Jacksonville FLView the full article

Flood Warning issued April 14 at 9:21PM EDT by NWS Jacksonville FLView the full article

Flood Warning issued April 14 at 9:21PM EDT until April 15 at 4:00PM EDT by NWS Tallahassee FLView the full article

Flood Warning issued April 14 at 9:08PM EDT until April 18 at 6:00AM EDT by NWS Jacksonville FLView the full article

Flood Warning issued April 12 at 10:14PM EDT until April 14 at 3:00PM EDT by NWS Tallahassee FLView the full article

Flood Warning issued April 12 at 10:09PM EDT until April 15 at 2:00PM EDT by NWS Tallahassee FLView the full article

Flood Warning issued April 12 at 10:05PM EDT by NWS Tallahassee FLView the full article

Flood Warning issued April 12 at 10:04PM EDT until April 16 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Tallahassee FLView the full article

Flood Warning issued April 12 at 9:43PM EDT until April 15 at 6:30AM EDT by NWS Jacksonville FLView the full article

MD 0433 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN OREGON INTO NORTH CENTRAL IDAHA Mesoscale Discussion 0433 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024 Areas affected...parts of northeastern Oregon into north central Idaha Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 130036Z - 130230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A small cluster of thunderstorms may continue to evolve and organize near and east-northeast of the Baker OR vicinity, with increasing potential to produce strong to severe wind gusts while spreading toward the Bitterroot and Salmon River Mountains vicinity through 7-9 PM MDT. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development has recently intensified in a narrow line near/south of the Blue Mountains vicinity of northeastern Oregon. This appears aided by a focused area of large-scale ascent supported by low-level warm advection, beneath a difluent and divergent upper flow regime. As a high-level jet streak continues to propagate eastward to the north of the western Canadian/U.S. border vicinity, this forcing is forecast to generally shift east-northeastward into parts of the Salmon River Mountains and Bitterroot Range of north central Idaho. Although peak late afternoon instability appears characterized by relatively modest CAPE on the order of 500 J/kg, strong deep layer shear (50+ kt) may contribute further intensification of convection during the next few hours. The evolution of a small, but increasingly organized cluster of storms appears possible, which may gradually be accompanied by strengthening rear inflow and perhaps increasing potential for strong to severe gusts to reach the surface, aided by relatively dry sub-cloud air with modestly steep lapse rates. ..Kerr/Thompson.. 04/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MSO...BOI...PDT... LAT...LON 44841815 46031625 46041454 45081549 44021738 43971789 44521796 44841815 Read more View the full article

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND FAR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind gusts and hail may occur with thunderstorms from eastern Oregon to western Montana this evening. A few strong wind gusts may also occur in far eastern North Carolina. ...Pacific Northwest/Northern Rockies... The latest water vapor imagery shows an anticyclonic flow pattern over much of the western and central U.S. A shortwave trough is appears to be moving through the Pacific Northwest. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing ahead of the shortwave from eastern Oregon into southern Idaho. These storms will move northeastward across the Pacific Northwest and into the northern Rockies this evening. The RAP shows a pocket of maximized instability across central and northern Idaho, where MLCAPE is estimated to be near 500 J/kg. Within this area, moderate deep-layer shear is also analyzed, with 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 8.5 to 9.5 C/km range. This environment should support an isolated wind-damage and hail threat this evening. ...Far Eastern North Carolina... An upper-level trough, evident on water vapor imagery, is currently moving through the Carolinas. Ahead of the trough, a pocket of weak instability is located near the coast of North Carolina, where a line of thunderstorms is currently ongoing. This line will move eastward across the Cape Hatteras over the next hour, where isolated strong to severe wind gusts will be possible. The threat is expected to move offshore after 02z. ..Broyles.. 04/13/2024 Read more View the full article

Flood Warning issued April 12 at 8:48PM EDT by NWS Jacksonville FLView the full article

Flood Warning issued April 12 at 8:44PM EDT by NWS Jacksonville FLView the full article

Wind Advisory issued April 12 at 6:42PM EDT until April 13 at 2:00AM EDT by NWS Columbia SCView the full article

Flood Warning issued April 12 at 9:34AM EDT by NWS Charleston SCView the full article