NorthGeorgiaWX

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... Surface low pressure will be located over NC Friday morning. A trailing cold front will extend southwest from the low into southern GA and northern Gulf of Mexico. The front will rapidly move offshore the Southeast coast and across the FL Peninsula. While modest boundary-layer moisture will reside across the FL Peninsula, poor lapse rates and weak instability will preclude thunderstorm activity before the front moves offshore by mid afternoon. In the wake of the front, strong surface high pressure will develop over the Plains. A dry and stable airmass behind the front will limit thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 01/17/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... Surface low pressure will be located over NC Friday morning. A trailing cold front will extend southwest from the low into southern GA and northern Gulf of Mexico. The front will rapidly move offshore the Southeast coast and across the FL Peninsula. While modest boundary-layer moisture will reside across the FL Peninsula, poor lapse rates and weak instability will preclude thunderstorm activity before the front moves offshore by mid afternoon. In the wake of the front, strong surface high pressure will develop over the Plains. A dry and stable airmass behind the front will limit thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 01/17/2024 Read more View the full article

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Jan 17 07:31:02 UTC 2024.View the full article

Wind Chill Advisory issued January 17 at 1:41AM EST until January 17 at 10:00AM EST by NWSView the full article

Hard Freeze Warning issued January 17 at 1:40AM EST until January 17 at 9:00AM EST by NWSView the full article

Hard Freeze Warning issued January 17 at 1:40AM EST until January 17 at 9:00AM EST by NWSView the full article

Hard Freeze Warning issued January 17 at 1:40AM EST until January 17 at 9:00AM EST by NWSView the full article

Freeze Watch issued January 17 at 1:40AM EST until January 18 at 8:00AM EST by NWSView the full article

Freeze Watch issued January 17 at 1:40AM EST until January 18 at 8:00AM EST by NWSView the full article

Hard Freeze Watch issued January 17 at 1:40AM EST until January 18 at 8:00AM EST by NWSView the full article

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave upper trough embedded within a broader trough east of the Rockies will pivot east from the southern Plains to the Carolinas on Thursday. At the surface, a weak low will move in tandem with the shortwave impulse across the Gulf coast states vicinity. A trailing cold front will sweep southeast across the Southeast during the period, extending from southern GA into the northern Gulf of Mexico by Friday morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will allow upper 50s to near 60 F dewpoints to impinge on the central Gulf coast, with somewhat higher dewpoints expected across central/southern FL. While boundary-layer moisture will be greater across the FL Peninsula, poor lapse rates and relatively warm midlevel temperatures will result in capping and limit destabilization. A few lightning flashes may occur over parts of the Peninsula, but severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/17/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave upper trough embedded within a broader trough east of the Rockies will pivot east from the southern Plains to the Carolinas on Thursday. At the surface, a weak low will move in tandem with the shortwave impulse across the Gulf coast states vicinity. A trailing cold front will sweep southeast across the Southeast during the period, extending from southern GA into the northern Gulf of Mexico by Friday morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will allow upper 50s to near 60 F dewpoints to impinge on the central Gulf coast, with somewhat higher dewpoints expected across central/southern FL. While boundary-layer moisture will be greater across the FL Peninsula, poor lapse rates and relatively warm midlevel temperatures will result in capping and limit destabilization. A few lightning flashes may occur over parts of the Peninsula, but severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/17/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave upper trough embedded within a broader trough east of the Rockies will pivot east from the southern Plains to the Carolinas on Thursday. At the surface, a weak low will move in tandem with the shortwave impulse across the Gulf coast states vicinity. A trailing cold front will sweep southeast across the Southeast during the period, extending from southern GA into the northern Gulf of Mexico by Friday morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will allow upper 50s to near 60 F dewpoints to impinge on the central Gulf coast, with somewhat higher dewpoints expected across central/southern FL. While boundary-layer moisture will be greater across the FL Peninsula, poor lapse rates and relatively warm midlevel temperatures will result in capping and limit destabilization. A few lightning flashes may occur over parts of the Peninsula, but severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/17/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave upper trough embedded within a broader trough east of the Rockies will pivot east from the southern Plains to the Carolinas on Thursday. At the surface, a weak low will move in tandem with the shortwave impulse across the Gulf coast states vicinity. A trailing cold front will sweep southeast across the Southeast during the period, extending from southern GA into the northern Gulf of Mexico by Friday morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will allow upper 50s to near 60 F dewpoints to impinge on the central Gulf coast, with somewhat higher dewpoints expected across central/southern FL. While boundary-layer moisture will be greater across the FL Peninsula, poor lapse rates and relatively warm midlevel temperatures will result in capping and limit destabilization. A few lightning flashes may occur over parts of the Peninsula, but severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/17/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A belt of strong deep-layer west-northwesterly flow will persist across the central/southern Rockies on D2/Thursday, favoring lee troughing over the adjacent High Plains. Along/south of the lee trough, a modest pressure gradient and boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will yield two corridors of strong/gusty surface winds. The northern corridor will extend from east-central NM into the western portion of the TX South Plains, though RH reductions will be marginal here (i.e., 20-25 percent). Farther south, a second belt of sustained westerly surface winds near 20 mph (with higher gusts) is expected across the TX Trans-Pecos region. Here, warmer surface temperatures will support 15-20 percent RH, and with slightly more receptive fuels, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. With that said, the overall threat appears too localized for Elevated highlights given modestly receptive fuels at best. ..Weinman.. 01/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough accompanied by strong westerly flow aloft will impinge on the central Rockies during the day, promoting a deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains. Along and south of this feature, 15-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will develop across much of the southern High Plains during the afternoon. Here, strengthening downslope flow will contribute to 15-25 percent minimum RH, though RH reductions should be marginal where the strongest surface winds are expected (i.e., east-central NM into the western TX Panhandle and in the immediate lee of the high terrain in eastern NM). While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible across the region, the limited wind/RH overlap and marginal fuels preclude Elevated highlights. ..Weinman.. 01/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... In the wake of a cold front passage across south FL and the Keys, a stout surface anticyclone, embedded with a pervasive continental polar air mass, will shift from south-central TX across the Southeast to off the Carolina coast through 12Z Thursday. The lack of appreciable buoyancy across the CONUS suggests that thunderstorm potential will remain negligible through the period. ..Grams/Weinman.. 01/17/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... In the wake of a cold front passage across south FL and the Keys, a stout surface anticyclone, embedded with a pervasive continental polar air mass, will shift from south-central TX across the Southeast to off the Carolina coast through 12Z Thursday. The lack of appreciable buoyancy across the CONUS suggests that thunderstorm potential will remain negligible through the period. ..Grams/Weinman.. 01/17/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... In the wake of a cold front passage across south FL and the Keys, a stout surface anticyclone, embedded with a pervasive continental polar air mass, will shift from south-central TX across the Southeast to off the Carolina coast through 12Z Thursday. The lack of appreciable buoyancy across the CONUS suggests that thunderstorm potential will remain negligible through the period. ..Grams/Weinman.. 01/17/2024 Read more View the full article

MD 0077 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR DOWNSTREAM OF LAKES ONTARIO AND ERIE Mesoscale Discussion 0077 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0854 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Areas affected...Downstream of Lakes Ontario and Erie Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 170254Z - 170730Z SUMMARY...An intense lake effect snow band off of Lake Ontario will persist through the overnight hours, with rates up to 2 in/hr. An additional lake effect band may intensify off of Lake Erie through the early morning hours. DISCUSSION...On the backside of a departing midlevel shortwave trough lifting northeastward across the Northeast, low/midlevel flow has become favorably aligned with the long axis of Lake Ontario, where an intense lake effect snow band has developed. Latest radar data and web cams suggest rates up to 2 in/hr over Oswego County with this organized band. Over the next few hours, low-level flow should remain unidirectional and maintain a favorable direction for the persistence of this band, with the heaviest snowfall rates expected over Oswego County. Rates up to 2 in/hr will be aided by persistent surface confluence along the lake and a modestly deep convective boundary layer extending up to about 2 km. In the 04-06Z time frame, low-level flow will back to a west-southwesterly direction, likely shifting the lake effect band northward into Jefferson County with time. However, increasing subsidence on the backside of the aforementioned midlevel trough could lead to decreased convective boundary layer depths and a slight reduction in rates. Off of Lake Erie, latest radar data shows some intensification of a lake effect snow band extending into Erie County. While low-level flow is modestly aligned with the long axis of the lake, the backing low-level winds with time should yield a more persistent band into the early morning hours. Thermodynamic conditions appear slightly less conducive compared to Lake Ontario, though rates could approach 2 in/hr if the snow band becomes persistent and organized. ..Weinman.. 01/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF... LAT...LON 43287614 43427682 43567703 43747686 43877642 43877607 43847576 43747538 43527526 43207551 43287614 Read more View the full article

MD 0076 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OR INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WA Mesoscale Discussion 0076 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0531 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Areas affected...Portions of northwest OR into far southwest WA Concerning...Freezing rain Valid 162331Z - 170400Z SUMMARY...Freezing rain will increase in both intensity and coverage across much of the Willamette Valley, the Oregon Coast Range, and the far southern Chehalis River Valley during the next 1-2 hours and persist through around 04Z. DISCUSSION...Latest water vapor imagery depicts a compact midlevel cyclone tracking eastward toward the Pacific Northwest. Strong DCVA preceding the cyclone should overspread coastal OR over the next 1-2 hours, supporting an increase in precipitation intensity and coverage across the region. The 12Z SLE observed sounding and more recent Portland ACARS soundings showed lingering dry air in the 1-5-km layer, though persistent precipitation (and related wet-bulbing) along with increasing moisture ahead of the aforementioned cyclone are likely contributing to a deep saturated layer which will further support increasing precipitation rates. In fact, freezing rain is beginning to increase in coverage across coastal OR per the latest surface observations. Low to mid 20s surface wet bulb temperatures beneath a 3-4 deg C warm nose as low as 925 mb in the Willamette Valley into the Oregon Coast Range will support complete hydrometeor melting and re-freezing at the surface, suggesting that freezing rain will be the predominant precipitation type (with pockets of sleet also possible). And, given the strengthening large-scale ascent amid a deeply saturated thermodynamic profile, freezing rain rates could exceed 0.1 inch/hour. These conditions will likely persist through around 04Z, before surface temperatures begin to warm and the dry conveyor belt accompanying the midlevel cyclone impinges on the area. ..Weinman.. 01/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFR...SEW...PQR... LAT...LON 44262371 44892370 44992384 45192392 45342363 45682358 46122370 46472335 46522282 45892250 45412222 45042253 44372277 44022285 43742309 43792355 44262371 Read more View the full article

Flood Warning issued January 16 at 9:42PM EST until January 17 at 7:00AM EST by NWSView the full article

Wind Chill Advisory issued January 16 at 9:27PM EST until January 17 at 10:00AM EST by NWSView the full article

Flood Warning issued January 16 at 9:14PM EST until January 17 at 7:00PM EST by NWSView the full article

Flood Warning issued January 16 at 8:52PM EST until January 21 at 7:00AM EST by NWSView the full article