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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm winds and a few tornadoes are possible across a large part of the Southeast through early this evening. The most intense gusts (potentially above 70 mph) are possible through midday over parts of the Mid-South and Tennessee Valley regions. ...Synopsis... Broadly cyclonic flow in mid/upper levels will cover most of the CONUS through the period, except for shortwave ridging on either side of a strong lead trough now over the central/southern Plains. That perturbation will be the primary upper-air influence on convection today. The southern part -- initially located over portions of OK and north TX -- should eject northeastward to the IN/MI border area by 00Z, while the northern part moves more slowly across IA toward the Quad Cities. Overnight, these will combine into a 500-mb cyclone over Lower MI to Lake Huron, increasingly stacked on the surface cyclone described below. The 11Z surface analysis showed an area of low pressure over central MO, along the northern segment of a cold front extending across parts of central/western AR to central TX. A synoptic warm front was drawn from the low across the lower Ohio Valley. A prefrontal trough/wind shift and remnant of a Pacific front was evident over central LA southwestward to deep south TX. The surface low should occlude and move northeastward to near ORD by 00Z, then across Lower MI overnight. The main/Arctic cold front is forecast by 00Z to overtake the Pacific boundary and reach WV, the western Carolinas, northern/western GA, central/eastern FL Panhandle, and the central Gulf. The front should move offshore from the Mid-Atlantic, Carolinas and GA by 12Z, extending southwestward over central/ southwestern peninsular FL. ...Southeastern CONUS... Ongoing lines of strong to severe thunderstorms near the Mississippi River should consolidate and sweep eastward across parts of the Mid South toward the Tennessee Valley region through midday -- in and near the 30% wind/"enhanced" area. This activity will pose a threat for severe gusts (some significant/65+ kt), a few embedded tornadoes, and isolated, marginally severe hail. See SPC tornado watch 10 and related mesoscale discussions for near-term coverage of this convective stage. Though peak intensity of the main thunderstorm line is likely to be in the next several hours, as it encounters the greatest warm-sector theta-e, some severe-wind and tornado threat may persist eastward across portions of AL/GA today and into the Carolinas this evening following very strong low-level warm/theta-e advection. Additional strong-severe thunderstorm development is possible over the warm sector throughout today into this evening, as convergence lines produce showers that can grow gradually deeper and upscale. Given the strength of the wind fields projected to spread over the warm sector and ahead of the main line, some of this activity may become supercellular, also with a tornado/damaging-wind/marginal-hail threat. Dewpoints generally reaching the 50s to mid 60s F just prior to cold frontal passage, and sufficient surface-based instability, should develop today in the warm sector to offset weak midlevel lapse rates and support 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE -- more southward, and mainly south of I-20 in AL/GA and from the Piedmont eastward in SC/NC. Forecast soundings suggest hodographs will be straightening/losing size, but remaining very long, as the buoyant layer lowers closer to the surface and the main belt of convection approaches. Still, that supports effective SRH locally exceeding 400 J/kg, amidst 60-80-kt effective-shear magnitudes. The main limiting factor for areal severe potential will be lack of greater instability. Given the strength of ambient flow, a broad 15% wind area is maintained, with the understanding that localized pockets of denser wind/tornado potential may quickly evolve within. Farther north across northern TN/KY to southern VA, though MLCAPE will be weak, intense wind fields and associated convective momentum transfer still will support some potential for convective gusts to penetrate near-neutral stability layers and reach the surface. A broad area of 60-110-kt winds in the 850-700-mb layer will shift northeastward across parts of TN/KY and the southern Appalachians today. The severe potential in such scenarios is rather spotty and nebulous, and may extend well northward within cool surface air on an isolated basis. ..Edwards/Dean.. 01/12/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm winds and a few tornadoes are possible across a large part of the Southeast through early this evening. The most intense gusts (potentially above 70 mph) are possible through midday over parts of the Mid-South and Tennessee Valley regions. ...Synopsis... Broadly cyclonic flow in mid/upper levels will cover most of the CONUS through the period, except for shortwave ridging on either side of a strong lead trough now over the central/southern Plains. That perturbation will be the primary upper-air influence on convection today. The southern part -- initially located over portions of OK and north TX -- should eject northeastward to the IN/MI border area by 00Z, while the northern part moves more slowly across IA toward the Quad Cities. Overnight, these will combine into a 500-mb cyclone over Lower MI to Lake Huron, increasingly stacked on the surface cyclone described below. The 11Z surface analysis showed an area of low pressure over central MO, along the northern segment of a cold front extending across parts of central/western AR to central TX. A synoptic warm front was drawn from the low across the lower Ohio Valley. A prefrontal trough/wind shift and remnant of a Pacific front was evident over central LA southwestward to deep south TX. The surface low should occlude and move northeastward to near ORD by 00Z, then across Lower MI overnight. The main/Arctic cold front is forecast by 00Z to overtake the Pacific boundary and reach WV, the western Carolinas, northern/western GA, central/eastern FL Panhandle, and the central Gulf. The front should move offshore from the Mid-Atlantic, Carolinas and GA by 12Z, extending southwestward over central/ southwestern peninsular FL. ...Southeastern CONUS... Ongoing lines of strong to severe thunderstorms near the Mississippi River should consolidate and sweep eastward across parts of the Mid South toward the Tennessee Valley region through midday -- in and near the 30% wind/"enhanced" area. This activity will pose a threat for severe gusts (some significant/65+ kt), a few embedded tornadoes, and isolated, marginally severe hail. See SPC tornado watch 10 and related mesoscale discussions for near-term coverage of this convective stage. Though peak intensity of the main thunderstorm line is likely to be in the next several hours, as it encounters the greatest warm-sector theta-e, some severe-wind and tornado threat may persist eastward across portions of AL/GA today and into the Carolinas this evening following very strong low-level warm/theta-e advection. Additional strong-severe thunderstorm development is possible over the warm sector throughout today into this evening, as convergence lines produce showers that can grow gradually deeper and upscale. Given the strength of the wind fields projected to spread over the warm sector and ahead of the main line, some of this activity may become supercellular, also with a tornado/damaging-wind/marginal-hail threat. Dewpoints generally reaching the 50s to mid 60s F just prior to cold frontal passage, and sufficient surface-based instability, should develop today in the warm sector to offset weak midlevel lapse rates and support 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE -- more southward, and mainly south of I-20 in AL/GA and from the Piedmont eastward in SC/NC. Forecast soundings suggest hodographs will be straightening/losing size, but remaining very long, as the buoyant layer lowers closer to the surface and the main belt of convection approaches. Still, that supports effective SRH locally exceeding 400 J/kg, amidst 60-80-kt effective-shear magnitudes. The main limiting factor for areal severe potential will be lack of greater instability. Given the strength of ambient flow, a broad 15% wind area is maintained, with the understanding that localized pockets of denser wind/tornado potential may quickly evolve within. Farther north across northern TN/KY to southern VA, though MLCAPE will be weak, intense wind fields and associated convective momentum transfer still will support some potential for convective gusts to penetrate near-neutral stability layers and reach the surface. A broad area of 60-110-kt winds in the 850-700-mb layer will shift northeastward across parts of TN/KY and the southern Appalachians today. The severe potential in such scenarios is rather spotty and nebulous, and may extend well northward within cool surface air on an isolated basis. ..Edwards/Dean.. 01/12/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm winds and a few tornadoes are possible across a large part of the Southeast through early this evening. The most intense gusts (potentially above 70 mph) are possible through midday over parts of the Mid-South and Tennessee Valley regions. ...Synopsis... Broadly cyclonic flow in mid/upper levels will cover most of the CONUS through the period, except for shortwave ridging on either side of a strong lead trough now over the central/southern Plains. That perturbation will be the primary upper-air influence on convection today. The southern part -- initially located over portions of OK and north TX -- should eject northeastward to the IN/MI border area by 00Z, while the northern part moves more slowly across IA toward the Quad Cities. Overnight, these will combine into a 500-mb cyclone over Lower MI to Lake Huron, increasingly stacked on the surface cyclone described below. The 11Z surface analysis showed an area of low pressure over central MO, along the northern segment of a cold front extending across parts of central/western AR to central TX. A synoptic warm front was drawn from the low across the lower Ohio Valley. A prefrontal trough/wind shift and remnant of a Pacific front was evident over central LA southwestward to deep south TX. The surface low should occlude and move northeastward to near ORD by 00Z, then across Lower MI overnight. The main/Arctic cold front is forecast by 00Z to overtake the Pacific boundary and reach WV, the western Carolinas, northern/western GA, central/eastern FL Panhandle, and the central Gulf. The front should move offshore from the Mid-Atlantic, Carolinas and GA by 12Z, extending southwestward over central/ southwestern peninsular FL. ...Southeastern CONUS... Ongoing lines of strong to severe thunderstorms near the Mississippi River should consolidate and sweep eastward across parts of the Mid South toward the Tennessee Valley region through midday -- in and near the 30% wind/"enhanced" area. This activity will pose a threat for severe gusts (some significant/65+ kt), a few embedded tornadoes, and isolated, marginally severe hail. See SPC tornado watch 10 and related mesoscale discussions for near-term coverage of this convective stage. Though peak intensity of the main thunderstorm line is likely to be in the next several hours, as it encounters the greatest warm-sector theta-e, some severe-wind and tornado threat may persist eastward across portions of AL/GA today and into the Carolinas this evening following very strong low-level warm/theta-e advection. Additional strong-severe thunderstorm development is possible over the warm sector throughout today into this evening, as convergence lines produce showers that can grow gradually deeper and upscale. Given the strength of the wind fields projected to spread over the warm sector and ahead of the main line, some of this activity may become supercellular, also with a tornado/damaging-wind/marginal-hail threat. Dewpoints generally reaching the 50s to mid 60s F just prior to cold frontal passage, and sufficient surface-based instability, should develop today in the warm sector to offset weak midlevel lapse rates and support 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE -- more southward, and mainly south of I-20 in AL/GA and from the Piedmont eastward in SC/NC. Forecast soundings suggest hodographs will be straightening/losing size, but remaining very long, as the buoyant layer lowers closer to the surface and the main belt of convection approaches. Still, that supports effective SRH locally exceeding 400 J/kg, amidst 60-80-kt effective-shear magnitudes. The main limiting factor for areal severe potential will be lack of greater instability. Given the strength of ambient flow, a broad 15% wind area is maintained, with the understanding that localized pockets of denser wind/tornado potential may quickly evolve within. Farther north across northern TN/KY to southern VA, though MLCAPE will be weak, intense wind fields and associated convective momentum transfer still will support some potential for convective gusts to penetrate near-neutral stability layers and reach the surface. A broad area of 60-110-kt winds in the 850-700-mb layer will shift northeastward across parts of TN/KY and the southern Appalachians today. The severe potential in such scenarios is rather spotty and nebulous, and may extend well northward within cool surface air on an isolated basis. ..Edwards/Dean.. 01/12/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm winds and a few tornadoes are possible across a large part of the Southeast through early this evening. The most intense gusts (potentially above 70 mph) are possible through midday over parts of the Mid-South and Tennessee Valley regions. ...Synopsis... Broadly cyclonic flow in mid/upper levels will cover most of the CONUS through the period, except for shortwave ridging on either side of a strong lead trough now over the central/southern Plains. That perturbation will be the primary upper-air influence on convection today. The southern part -- initially located over portions of OK and north TX -- should eject northeastward to the IN/MI border area by 00Z, while the northern part moves more slowly across IA toward the Quad Cities. Overnight, these will combine into a 500-mb cyclone over Lower MI to Lake Huron, increasingly stacked on the surface cyclone described below. The 11Z surface analysis showed an area of low pressure over central MO, along the northern segment of a cold front extending across parts of central/western AR to central TX. A synoptic warm front was drawn from the low across the lower Ohio Valley. A prefrontal trough/wind shift and remnant of a Pacific front was evident over central LA southwestward to deep south TX. The surface low should occlude and move northeastward to near ORD by 00Z, then across Lower MI overnight. The main/Arctic cold front is forecast by 00Z to overtake the Pacific boundary and reach WV, the western Carolinas, northern/western GA, central/eastern FL Panhandle, and the central Gulf. The front should move offshore from the Mid-Atlantic, Carolinas and GA by 12Z, extending southwestward over central/ southwestern peninsular FL. ...Southeastern CONUS... Ongoing lines of strong to severe thunderstorms near the Mississippi River should consolidate and sweep eastward across parts of the Mid South toward the Tennessee Valley region through midday -- in and near the 30% wind/"enhanced" area. This activity will pose a threat for severe gusts (some significant/65+ kt), a few embedded tornadoes, and isolated, marginally severe hail. See SPC tornado watch 10 and related mesoscale discussions for near-term coverage of this convective stage. Though peak intensity of the main thunderstorm line is likely to be in the next several hours, as it encounters the greatest warm-sector theta-e, some severe-wind and tornado threat may persist eastward across portions of AL/GA today and into the Carolinas this evening following very strong low-level warm/theta-e advection. Additional strong-severe thunderstorm development is possible over the warm sector throughout today into this evening, as convergence lines produce showers that can grow gradually deeper and upscale. Given the strength of the wind fields projected to spread over the warm sector and ahead of the main line, some of this activity may become supercellular, also with a tornado/damaging-wind/marginal-hail threat. Dewpoints generally reaching the 50s to mid 60s F just prior to cold frontal passage, and sufficient surface-based instability, should develop today in the warm sector to offset weak midlevel lapse rates and support 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE -- more southward, and mainly south of I-20 in AL/GA and from the Piedmont eastward in SC/NC. Forecast soundings suggest hodographs will be straightening/losing size, but remaining very long, as the buoyant layer lowers closer to the surface and the main belt of convection approaches. Still, that supports effective SRH locally exceeding 400 J/kg, amidst 60-80-kt effective-shear magnitudes. The main limiting factor for areal severe potential will be lack of greater instability. Given the strength of ambient flow, a broad 15% wind area is maintained, with the understanding that localized pockets of denser wind/tornado potential may quickly evolve within. Farther north across northern TN/KY to southern VA, though MLCAPE will be weak, intense wind fields and associated convective momentum transfer still will support some potential for convective gusts to penetrate near-neutral stability layers and reach the surface. A broad area of 60-110-kt winds in the 850-700-mb layer will shift northeastward across parts of TN/KY and the southern Appalachians today. The severe potential in such scenarios is rather spotty and nebulous, and may extend well northward within cool surface air on an isolated basis. ..Edwards/Dean.. 01/12/2024 Read more View the full article

WW 0010 Status Updates STATUS REPORT ON WW 10 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S IER TO 40 ESE SHV TO 35 NE LLQ TO JBR. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0052 ..DEAN..01/12/24 ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 10 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC003-017-035-037-077-107-123-121340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLEY CHICOT CRITTENDEN CROSS LEE PHILLIPS ST. FRANCIS LAC013-021-035-041-049-061-065-067-069-073-083-107-111-123-127- 121340- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BIENVILLE CALDWELL EAST CARROLL FRANKLIN JACKSON LINCOLN MADISON MOREHOUSE NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA RICHLAND TENSAS UNION WEST CARROLL WINN Read more View the full article

WW 0010 Status Updates STATUS REPORT ON WW 10 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S IER TO 40 ESE SHV TO 35 NE LLQ TO JBR. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0052 ..DEAN..01/12/24 ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 10 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC003-017-035-037-077-107-123-121340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLEY CHICOT CRITTENDEN CROSS LEE PHILLIPS ST. FRANCIS LAC013-021-035-041-049-061-065-067-069-073-083-107-111-123-127- 121340- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BIENVILLE CALDWELL EAST CARROLL FRANKLIN JACKSON LINCOLN MADISON MOREHOUSE NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA RICHLAND TENSAS UNION WEST CARROLL WINN Read more View the full article

MD 0052 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 10... FOR EASTERN AR...NORTHWEST MS...EXTREME SOUTHWEST TN...EXTREME NORTHEAST LA Mesoscale Discussion 0052 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0614 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Areas affected...Eastern AR...Northwest MS...Extreme southwest TN...Extreme northeast LA Concerning...Tornado Watch 10... Valid 121214Z - 121345Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 10 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for 70-80 mph winds and a couple tornadoes will continue through sunrise. DISCUSSION...A fast-moving convective line has recently increased in organization across eastern AR, with several mesovortices noted along the leading edge of the line. Shortly after 1130 UTC, 64-kt and 63-kt gusts were noted at Pine Bluff (KPBF) and Stuttgart, AR (KSGT), respectively, as the line moved through those observing sites. Very strong low/midlevel flow in advance of a powerful shortwave trough moving across the southern Plains will continue to support severe-gust potential (with 65+ kt gusts possible) as this convective line moves quickly eastward toward northwest MS and extreme southwest TN. A couple brief line-embedded tornadoes will also be possible. The northward extent of the severe threat will be limited by increasingly cool/stable near-surface conditions, though some severe-gust potential could extend into regions were convection remains somewhat elevated. In advance of the convective line described above, semi-discrete storms have intensified from northeast LA/southeast AR into northwest MS. It remains uncertain regarding whether supercells can mature within the weakly unstable and strongly sheared environment across this region, but very strong low-level shear/SRH (as noted on regional VWPs) will support a conditional tornado risk with any sustained supercell ahead of the primary convective line this morning. ..Dean.. 01/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV... LAT...LON 35409093 35459031 35399001 35038985 34458984 33938989 32779082 32609111 32609161 32619201 32789212 33029209 33169200 33349191 33509187 33879165 34379143 35409093 Read more View the full article

WW 0010 Status Updates STATUS REPORT ON WW 10 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE LFK TO 15 N SHV TO 30 WSW PBF TO 15 SW BVX. ..DEAN..01/12/24 ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 10 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-003-011-013-017-025-035-037-041-043-069-077-079-085-095- 107-117-123-139-145-147-121240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS ASHLEY BRADLEY CALHOUN CHICOT CLEVELAND CRITTENDEN CROSS DESHA DREW JEFFERSON LEE LINCOLN LONOKE MONROE PHILLIPS PRAIRIE ST. FRANCIS UNION WHITE WOODRUFF LAC013-015-017-021-027-031-035-041-049-061-065-067-069-073-081- 083-107-111-119-123-127-121240- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO CALDWELL CLAIBORNE DE SOTO EAST CARROLL FRANKLIN JACKSON LINCOLN MADISON MOREHOUSE Read more View the full article

WW 0010 Status Updates STATUS REPORT ON WW 10 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE LFK TO 15 N SHV TO 30 WSW PBF TO 15 SW BVX. ..DEAN..01/12/24 ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 10 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-003-011-013-017-025-035-037-041-043-069-077-079-085-095- 107-117-123-139-145-147-121240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS ASHLEY BRADLEY CALHOUN CHICOT CLEVELAND CRITTENDEN CROSS DESHA DREW JEFFERSON LEE LINCOLN LONOKE MONROE PHILLIPS PRAIRIE ST. FRANCIS UNION WHITE WOODRUFF LAC013-015-017-021-027-031-035-041-049-061-065-067-069-073-081- 083-107-111-119-123-127-121240- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO CALDWELL CLAIBORNE DE SOTO EAST CARROLL FRANKLIN JACKSON LINCOLN MADISON MOREHOUSE Read more View the full article

MD 0051 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR NORTHERN IL...SOUTHERN WI...EASTERN IA Mesoscale Discussion 0051 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0423 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Areas affected...Northern IL...Southern WI...Eastern IA Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 121023Z - 121430Z SUMMARY...Snow rates of 1+ inch per hour will spread northward this morning. DISCUSSION...At 1015 UTC, a broad region of moderate precipitation is ongoing within the warm conveyor belt of a deepening cyclone currently centered near the Ozark Plateau. Within this region, an area of locally heavier precipitation is noted from eastern IA into northern IL, where some enhancement is likely being provided by a midlevel shortwave trough that is moving across southern IL in advance of the primary shortwave across the central/southern Plains. Some increase in moderate to heavy snow observations has been noted over the last hour across northwest/north-central IL, and this trend is likely to continue as heavier precipitation spreads into northeast IL and southern WI. Favorable moistening and ascent within a deep layer (including the dendritic growth zone) will support snow rates of 1+ inch per hour for at least a few hours this morning. Continued strong low-level warm advection will eventually result in a snow-to-rain transition along the southern periphery of the ongoing precipitation shield, with the rain/snow line expected to gradually advance northward into parts of northern IL later this morning. ..Dean.. 01/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX... LAT...LON 42928774 42298769 41908757 41638752 41418749 41158750 41068777 41168948 41229053 41269132 41499156 42109160 43069064 43208884 42928774 Read more View the full article

Flood Warning issued January 12 at 5:24AM EST until further notice by NWSView the full article

Flood Warning issued January 12 at 5:24AM EST until further notice by NWSView the full article

Flood Warning issued January 12 at 4:56AM EST until January 13 at 8:15AM EST by NWSView the full article

WW 0010 Status Updates STATUS REPORT ON WW 8 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW APF TO 40 WNW PBI TO 30 NE VRB. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0042 ..LYONS..01/10/24 ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 8 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC021-051-085-099-100340- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLLIER HENDRY MARTIN PALM BEACH AMZ555-650-100340- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL OUT 20 NM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more View the full article

WW 0010 Status Updates STATUS REPORT ON WW 8 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW APF TO 40 WNW PBI TO 30 NE VRB. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0042 ..LYONS..01/10/24 ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 8 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC021-051-085-099-100340- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLLIER HENDRY MARTIN PALM BEACH AMZ555-650-100340- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL OUT 20 NM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more View the full article

WW 10 TORNADO AR LA MS TN TX 120955Z - 121700Z URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 10 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 355 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern, central and eastern Arkansas Northern Louisiana Northern and central Mississippi Southwestern Tennessee Northeast Texas * Effective this Friday morning from 355 AM until 1100 AM CST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A line of severe thunderstorms is expected to become better organized the next few hours and sweep eastward across the watch area through the remainder of the morning, offering severe gusts (some potentially over 70 mph), a few tornadoes, and isolated hail. Isolated severe thunderstorms also may form ahead of the line, with all the same hazards possible. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 95 statute miles either side of a line from 30 miles southwest of Texarkana AR to 25 miles east of Tupelo MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...This tornado watch replaces tornado watch number 9. Watch number 9 will not be in effect after 355 AM CST. AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 25040. ...Edwards Read more View the full article

WW 10 TORNADO AR LA MS TN TX 120955Z - 121700Z URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 10 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 355 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern, central and eastern Arkansas Northern Louisiana Northern and central Mississippi Southwestern Tennessee Northeast Texas * Effective this Friday morning from 355 AM until 1100 AM CST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A line of severe thunderstorms is expected to become better organized the next few hours and sweep eastward across the watch area through the remainder of the morning, offering severe gusts (some potentially over 70 mph), a few tornadoes, and isolated hail. Isolated severe thunderstorms also may form ahead of the line, with all the same hazards possible. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 95 statute miles either side of a line from 30 miles southwest of Texarkana AR to 25 miles east of Tupelo MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...This tornado watch replaces tornado watch number 9. Watch number 9 will not be in effect after 355 AM CST. AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 25040. ...Edwards Read more View the full article

Flood Warning issued January 12 at 4:54AM EST until further notice by NWSView the full article

Flood Warning issued January 12 at 4:53AM EST until further notice by NWSView the full article

Flood Warning issued January 12 at 4:51AM EST until January 13 at 7:00PM EST by NWSView the full article

Flood Warning issued January 12 at 4:49AM EST until further notice by NWSView the full article

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... Upper-level mean troughing will persist across much of the CONUS during the Day 4-8 period. At least one reinforcing surge of cold, arctic air associated with this pattern will maintain a dry and/or stable airmass for much of the U.S., and thunderstorm chances are expected to be low. Some modest Gulf return flow may occur near the end of the period in the Day 7/8-Thu/Fri time period as an upper ridge builds over the West and a shortwave impulse migrates east from the High Plains to the Southeast. However, quality low-level moisture will likely remain offshore in the absence of stronger surface cyclogenesis, precluding severe thunderstorm potential. Read more View the full article

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... Upper-level mean troughing will persist across much of the CONUS during the Day 4-8 period. At least one reinforcing surge of cold, arctic air associated with this pattern will maintain a dry and/or stable airmass for much of the U.S., and thunderstorm chances are expected to be low. Some modest Gulf return flow may occur near the end of the period in the Day 7/8-Thu/Fri time period as an upper ridge builds over the West and a shortwave impulse migrates east from the High Plains to the Southeast. However, quality low-level moisture will likely remain offshore in the absence of stronger surface cyclogenesis, precluding severe thunderstorm potential. Read more View the full article

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... Upper-level mean troughing will persist across much of the CONUS during the Day 4-8 period. At least one reinforcing surge of cold, arctic air associated with this pattern will maintain a dry and/or stable airmass for much of the U.S., and thunderstorm chances are expected to be low. Some modest Gulf return flow may occur near the end of the period in the Day 7/8-Thu/Fri time period as an upper ridge builds over the West and a shortwave impulse migrates east from the High Plains to the Southeast. However, quality low-level moisture will likely remain offshore in the absence of stronger surface cyclogenesis, precluding severe thunderstorm potential. Read more View the full article

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... Upper-level mean troughing will persist across much of the CONUS during the Day 4-8 period. At least one reinforcing surge of cold, arctic air associated with this pattern will maintain a dry and/or stable airmass for much of the U.S., and thunderstorm chances are expected to be low. Some modest Gulf return flow may occur near the end of the period in the Day 7/8-Thu/Fri time period as an upper ridge builds over the West and a shortwave impulse migrates east from the High Plains to the Southeast. However, quality low-level moisture will likely remain offshore in the absence of stronger surface cyclogenesis, precluding severe thunderstorm potential. Read more View the full article