NorthGeorgiaWX

Flood Warning issued January 11 at 8:41PM EST until January 12 at 4:22AM EST by NWSView the full article

Flood Warning issued January 11 at 8:39PM EST until further notice by NWSView the full article

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ARK-LA-TEX... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, associated with tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail are possible tonight over the Ark-La-Tex, and in nearby parts of southeastern Oklahoma, east Texas, Arkansas, and Louisiana. ...Ark-La-Tex... The latest water vapor imagery shows an progressive upper-level trough over the southern Rockies. An associated 90 to 120 knot mid-level jet will translate quickly through the base of the trough eastward into the southern Plains this evening. The exit region of the mid-level jet will overspread the Ark-La-Tex by late evening. Ahead of this feature, moisture advection will take place across northeast Texas, Louisiana and far southwest Arkansas, where surface dewpoints will likely increase in the lower 60s F. In response to increasing low-level moisture and steepening mid-level lapse rates, a pocket of instability will develop across the Ark-La-Tex by late evening. Thunderstorms are forecast initiate within this pocket of instability during the mid to late evening, and persist into the overnight period. These storms should develop a severe threat, with the threat aided by a split structure within the mid-level jet. Concerning the timing of initiation, scattered thunderstorms are expected to initiate in eastern Oklahoma around 03Z or 04Z, with additional storms and greater convective coverage, developing further to the south by 06Z. Considering that both deep-layer shear and large-scale ascent will be very strong, supercell development is expected. RAP forecast soundings around 08Z in far southwest Arkansas have MLCAPE near 1200 J/kg, 0-6 km shear around 85 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rate approaching 8.0 C/km. This environment will support supercells with large hail. The more dominant and intense supercells could produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is expected to increase into the 300 to 350 m2/s2 range,, supporting a tornado threat. A strong tornado will be possible. As a line of intense storms develops and moves eastward across the Ark-La-Tex tonight, a wind-damage threat is also expected to develop. A few of the stronger wind gusts along the leading edge of the line could peak above 70 knots. The severe threat is expected to persist through the end of the period, as the line of storms approaches the Mississippi River. ...East Texas/Louisiana... The axis of the mid-level jet is forecast to move eastward across central and east Texas tonight. To the south of the mid-level jet axis, instability and large-scale ascent are forecast to decrease with southward extent. For this reason, any severe threat that develops should be more isolated. Even still, deep-layer shear will remain very strong, which could support a severe threat tonight. Large hail, wind damage and perhaps a tornado will be the primary threats. ..Broyles.. 01/12/2024 Read more View the full article

Wind Advisory issued January 11 at 7:46PM EST until January 13 at 7:00AM EST by NWSView the full article

High Wind Warning issued January 11 at 7:11PM EST until January 12 at 7:00PM EST by NWSView the full article

Wind Advisory issued January 11 at 7:11PM EST until January 13 at 1:00AM EST by NWSView the full article

Wind Advisory issued January 11 at 7:11PM EST until January 13 at 1:00AM EST by NWSView the full article

Wind Advisory issued January 11 at 7:11PM EST until January 13 at 1:00AM EST by NWSView the full article

Wind Advisory issued January 11 at 4:59PM EST until January 13 at 7:00AM EST by NWSView the full article

MD 0045 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA INTO EXTREME NORTHERN KANSAS Mesoscale Discussion 0045 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024 Areas affected...portions of central and southeastern Nebraska into extreme northern Kansas Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 112140Z - 120345Z SUMMARY...Heavy snow should increase into the evening hours, with 1-2 inch/hr rates possible. Heavy snow will be most likely in central Nebraska over the next couple of hours, becoming increasingly likely in southeast Nebraska in the 00-03Z period. DISCUSSION...A pronounced mid-level trough is ejecting into the Plains states, with a 120+ kt 300 mb jet streak overspreading the southern Plains. This places the central Plains in the left-exit region of the upper-jet (per 21Z mesoanalysis), resulting in plenty of divergence aloft. The low-level mass response has been for the surface low to intensify across the southern Plains. This supports an increase in surface-925 mb cold air advection beneath increasing intense 850-700 mb warm-air advection over central and eastern NE, where 700 mb frontogenesis is also now underway. Moderate snow has recently begun to fall in central Nebraska per surface observations, with snowfall rates expected to only increase with time as dynamic lift increases and the dendritic growth zone continues to saturate. Later this afternoon, the anticipated heavier snow bands may produce snowfall rates up to 1-2 inches/hour, where reduced visibility will also become a concern. Latest high-resolution model guidance consensus suggests that the heaviest snow should begin in the next couple of hours, and peak in intensity somewhere in the 00-03Z period, especially over southeastern NE. ..Squitieri.. 01/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF... LAT...LON 42230081 42039872 41419693 40749594 40189559 39849594 39749687 39739796 40089884 40609979 41350089 42230081 Read more View the full article

Wind Advisory issued January 11 at 4:35PM EST until January 13 at 7:00AM EST by NWSView the full article

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z The upper-level pattern during the extended period will generally feature broadly cyclonic flow across much of the CONUS east of the Intermountain West. Near and along the West Coast, an upper-level ridge is expected to persist through the period. Guidance suggests that this feature may eventually move eastward perhaps during the middle/latter portions of next week; however, uncertainty is rather high. This pattern will favor cold temperatures at the surface for a broad area through the middle of next week. Coupled with precipitation, these cold conditions should mitigate fire weather concerns for most areas through the period. Potential for elevated fire weather will exist in parts of the Trans-Pecos this Saturday/Sunday as weak surface trough develops ahead of a low-amplitude shortwave trough. There is some uncertainty on the strength of the surface winds given the modest trough. Further uncertainty exists with the spatial extent of the threat given the potential for the cold front push into the region from the east. ..Wendt.. 01/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z The upper-level pattern during the extended period will generally feature broadly cyclonic flow across much of the CONUS east of the Intermountain West. Near and along the West Coast, an upper-level ridge is expected to persist through the period. Guidance suggests that this feature may eventually move eastward perhaps during the middle/latter portions of next week; however, uncertainty is rather high. This pattern will favor cold temperatures at the surface for a broad area through the middle of next week. Coupled with precipitation, these cold conditions should mitigate fire weather concerns for most areas through the period. Potential for elevated fire weather will exist in parts of the Trans-Pecos this Saturday/Sunday as weak surface trough develops ahead of a low-amplitude shortwave trough. There is some uncertainty on the strength of the surface winds given the modest trough. Further uncertainty exists with the spatial extent of the threat given the potential for the cold front push into the region from the east. ..Wendt.. 01/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Jan 11 21:31:01 UTC 2024.View the full article

Wind Advisory issued January 11 at 2:57PM EST until January 13 at 1:00AM EST by NWSView the full article

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX REGION... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and large hail are possible tonight over the Arklatex region, and nearby parts of southeastern Oklahoma, east Texas, Arkansas, and western/northern Louisiana. ...20Z Update... ...East TX and Arklatex into the Ozark Plateau tonight... Low-level moisture continues to advect northward across East TX, with low 60s dewpoints now reaching as far north as Rusk County TX. That matches fairly well with the last RAP guidance, which then brings 60s dewpoints into the TXK vicinity around 03Z. Elevated thunderstorm development is still anticipated tonight (00Z-03Z) from the Arklatex into nearby central AR within the strong warm-air advection preceding the shortwave current moving through the Four Corners region. Strong deep-layer vertical shear should support rotating updrafts and some potential for large hail. As mentioned in the previous outlook, upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints might be sufficient for surface-based supercells capable of all hazards, including tornadoes. Additional development is still expected to the west of this earlier, predominantly elevated activity as the strong mid-level jet progresses over the warm sector and a cold front surges westward. Storms are then expected to form along/ahead of this cold front from eastern OK int northeast TX and track rapidly east-northeastward across the ENH area. Primary storm mode will likely be bowing line segments, with an attendant threat for strong to significant gusts and tornadoes, particularly across east-central/southeast AR early Friday morning. Some storm development is also possible close to the primary surface low as well, and severe-wind probabilities were extended northward to account for this potential. ..Mosier.. 01/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2024/ Morning water vapor imagery shows a progressive upper trough digging southeastward toward the Four Corners region. This trough and associated intense mid/upper level jet will move into the southern Plains tonight, aiding in rapid cyclogenesis over OK/TX. Strengthening southerly low-level winds in the warm sector will transport Gulf moisture northward and result in a corridor of severe thunderstorm activity late tonight. Present indications are that storms will first form in the warm advection regime across parts of AR after dark. These initial storms will be in an environment of steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear, favorable for large hail. Supercell structures will be favored, and dewpoints in the upper 50s might be sufficient for at least a modest risk of a tornado or two. The more robust severe threat is likely to evolve after midnight as the mid-level jet max surges eastward across east TX and atop the warm sector. Storms are expected to form along/ahead of the cold front over northeast TX and track rapidly east-northeastward across the ENH area. The overall synoptic setup for this event would be very impressive and favorable for severe thunderstorms, but low-level moisture is somewhat lacking. Nevertheless, fast-moving supercells and bowing structures are possible early Friday morning as storms trek across parts of AR and northern LA. Widespread damaging winds and strong tornadoes are possible - especially if low-level moisture is just slightly greater than currently forecast. Read more View the full article

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX REGION... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and large hail are possible tonight over the Arklatex region, and nearby parts of southeastern Oklahoma, east Texas, Arkansas, and western/northern Louisiana. ...20Z Update... ...East TX and Arklatex into the Ozark Plateau tonight... Low-level moisture continues to advect northward across East TX, with low 60s dewpoints now reaching as far north as Rusk County TX. That matches fairly well with the last RAP guidance, which then brings 60s dewpoints into the TXK vicinity around 03Z. Elevated thunderstorm development is still anticipated tonight (00Z-03Z) from the Arklatex into nearby central AR within the strong warm-air advection preceding the shortwave current moving through the Four Corners region. Strong deep-layer vertical shear should support rotating updrafts and some potential for large hail. As mentioned in the previous outlook, upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints might be sufficient for surface-based supercells capable of all hazards, including tornadoes. Additional development is still expected to the west of this earlier, predominantly elevated activity as the strong mid-level jet progresses over the warm sector and a cold front surges westward. Storms are then expected to form along/ahead of this cold front from eastern OK int northeast TX and track rapidly east-northeastward across the ENH area. Primary storm mode will likely be bowing line segments, with an attendant threat for strong to significant gusts and tornadoes, particularly across east-central/southeast AR early Friday morning. Some storm development is also possible close to the primary surface low as well, and severe-wind probabilities were extended northward to account for this potential. ..Mosier.. 01/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2024/ Morning water vapor imagery shows a progressive upper trough digging southeastward toward the Four Corners region. This trough and associated intense mid/upper level jet will move into the southern Plains tonight, aiding in rapid cyclogenesis over OK/TX. Strengthening southerly low-level winds in the warm sector will transport Gulf moisture northward and result in a corridor of severe thunderstorm activity late tonight. Present indications are that storms will first form in the warm advection regime across parts of AR after dark. These initial storms will be in an environment of steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear, favorable for large hail. Supercell structures will be favored, and dewpoints in the upper 50s might be sufficient for at least a modest risk of a tornado or two. The more robust severe threat is likely to evolve after midnight as the mid-level jet max surges eastward across east TX and atop the warm sector. Storms are expected to form along/ahead of the cold front over northeast TX and track rapidly east-northeastward across the ENH area. The overall synoptic setup for this event would be very impressive and favorable for severe thunderstorms, but low-level moisture is somewhat lacking. Nevertheless, fast-moving supercells and bowing structures are possible early Friday morning as storms trek across parts of AR and northern LA. Widespread damaging winds and strong tornadoes are possible - especially if low-level moisture is just slightly greater than currently forecast. Read more View the full article

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX REGION... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and large hail are possible tonight over the Arklatex region, and nearby parts of southeastern Oklahoma, east Texas, Arkansas, and western/northern Louisiana. ...20Z Update... ...East TX and Arklatex into the Ozark Plateau tonight... Low-level moisture continues to advect northward across East TX, with low 60s dewpoints now reaching as far north as Rusk County TX. That matches fairly well with the last RAP guidance, which then brings 60s dewpoints into the TXK vicinity around 03Z. Elevated thunderstorm development is still anticipated tonight (00Z-03Z) from the Arklatex into nearby central AR within the strong warm-air advection preceding the shortwave current moving through the Four Corners region. Strong deep-layer vertical shear should support rotating updrafts and some potential for large hail. As mentioned in the previous outlook, upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints might be sufficient for surface-based supercells capable of all hazards, including tornadoes. Additional development is still expected to the west of this earlier, predominantly elevated activity as the strong mid-level jet progresses over the warm sector and a cold front surges westward. Storms are then expected to form along/ahead of this cold front from eastern OK int northeast TX and track rapidly east-northeastward across the ENH area. Primary storm mode will likely be bowing line segments, with an attendant threat for strong to significant gusts and tornadoes, particularly across east-central/southeast AR early Friday morning. Some storm development is also possible close to the primary surface low as well, and severe-wind probabilities were extended northward to account for this potential. ..Mosier.. 01/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2024/ Morning water vapor imagery shows a progressive upper trough digging southeastward toward the Four Corners region. This trough and associated intense mid/upper level jet will move into the southern Plains tonight, aiding in rapid cyclogenesis over OK/TX. Strengthening southerly low-level winds in the warm sector will transport Gulf moisture northward and result in a corridor of severe thunderstorm activity late tonight. Present indications are that storms will first form in the warm advection regime across parts of AR after dark. These initial storms will be in an environment of steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear, favorable for large hail. Supercell structures will be favored, and dewpoints in the upper 50s might be sufficient for at least a modest risk of a tornado or two. The more robust severe threat is likely to evolve after midnight as the mid-level jet max surges eastward across east TX and atop the warm sector. Storms are expected to form along/ahead of the cold front over northeast TX and track rapidly east-northeastward across the ENH area. The overall synoptic setup for this event would be very impressive and favorable for severe thunderstorms, but low-level moisture is somewhat lacking. Nevertheless, fast-moving supercells and bowing structures are possible early Friday morning as storms trek across parts of AR and northern LA. Widespread damaging winds and strong tornadoes are possible - especially if low-level moisture is just slightly greater than currently forecast. Read more View the full article

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z Have broadened the Elevated risk area into more of South Texas based on the latest guidance. The prior forecast reasoning otherwise remains valid. ..Wendt.. 01/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... The surface low previously over the southern Plains is forecast to deepen rapidly and lift away into the OH Valley as the parent trough intensifies over the Midwest. In the wake of the trough/low, a cold front will move south over the southern Plains toward the Gulf coast, supporting strong northwesterly winds and dry surface conditions over parts of southwest TX. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible before an Arctic front arrives with much colder temperatures. ...Southwest Texas & Rio Grande Valley... Behind the leading cold front, strong northwesterly surface flow is expected across the Rio Grande Valley and Southwest Texas on Friday. Several days of dry/breezy conditions have allowed antecedent fine fuels to dry sufficiently to support fire spread. Winds will be strongest through early afternoon before weakening into the overnight hours as the surface low lifts away to the northeast. A few hours of overlap of the stronger winds with RH values below 20% will promote elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z Have broadened the Elevated risk area into more of South Texas based on the latest guidance. The prior forecast reasoning otherwise remains valid. ..Wendt.. 01/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... The surface low previously over the southern Plains is forecast to deepen rapidly and lift away into the OH Valley as the parent trough intensifies over the Midwest. In the wake of the trough/low, a cold front will move south over the southern Plains toward the Gulf coast, supporting strong northwesterly winds and dry surface conditions over parts of southwest TX. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible before an Arctic front arrives with much colder temperatures. ...Southwest Texas & Rio Grande Valley... Behind the leading cold front, strong northwesterly surface flow is expected across the Rio Grande Valley and Southwest Texas on Friday. Several days of dry/breezy conditions have allowed antecedent fine fuels to dry sufficiently to support fire spread. Winds will be strongest through early afternoon before weakening into the overnight hours as the surface low lifts away to the northeast. A few hours of overlap of the stronger winds with RH values below 20% will promote elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z Have broadened the Elevated risk area into more of South Texas based on the latest guidance. The prior forecast reasoning otherwise remains valid. ..Wendt.. 01/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... The surface low previously over the southern Plains is forecast to deepen rapidly and lift away into the OH Valley as the parent trough intensifies over the Midwest. In the wake of the trough/low, a cold front will move south over the southern Plains toward the Gulf coast, supporting strong northwesterly winds and dry surface conditions over parts of southwest TX. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible before an Arctic front arrives with much colder temperatures. ...Southwest Texas & Rio Grande Valley... Behind the leading cold front, strong northwesterly surface flow is expected across the Rio Grande Valley and Southwest Texas on Friday. Several days of dry/breezy conditions have allowed antecedent fine fuels to dry sufficiently to support fire spread. Winds will be strongest through early afternoon before weakening into the overnight hours as the surface low lifts away to the northeast. A few hours of overlap of the stronger winds with RH values below 20% will promote elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

Flood Warning issued January 11 at 2:01PM EST until further notice by NWSView the full article

Flood Warning issued January 11 at 2:01PM EST until further notice by NWSView the full article

Flood Warning issued January 11 at 2:01PM EST until January 12 at 10:00PM EST by NWSView the full article

Flood Warning issued January 11 at 2:01PM EST until January 13 at 6:04PM EST by NWSView the full article