NorthGeorgiaWX

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2024 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... A deep remnant mid-level low, near James Bay by the beginning of the period, may deepen some further while redeveloping northward, then westward, into southern Hudson Bay by early next week, within an elongating area of low mid-level heights across much of eastern Canada, the Great Lakes and Northeast. This may linger into the middle to latter portion of next week, when a new mid-level low may form near Newfoundland and Labrador, associated with strong surface cyclogenesis offshore of the northern U.S. Atlantic coast and Canadian Maritimes. It appears that this cyclogenesis will initiate in response to a short wave trough emanating from the Canadian Arctic, before initially digging to the lee of the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies, downstream of mid-level ridging building inland of the Pacific coast. The track and evolution of this perturbation through residual cyclonic flow across the interior through eastern U.S. remains varied within the model output. However, it currently appears that the initial surface wave development will remain weak, along a stalled remnant frontal zone across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and east/northeast of the Florida Peninsula late next Monday night through Tuesday morning. This currently seems likely to minimize the risk for organized severe thunderstorms. Read more View the full article

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2024 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... A deep remnant mid-level low, near James Bay by the beginning of the period, may deepen some further while redeveloping northward, then westward, into southern Hudson Bay by early next week, within an elongating area of low mid-level heights across much of eastern Canada, the Great Lakes and Northeast. This may linger into the middle to latter portion of next week, when a new mid-level low may form near Newfoundland and Labrador, associated with strong surface cyclogenesis offshore of the northern U.S. Atlantic coast and Canadian Maritimes. It appears that this cyclogenesis will initiate in response to a short wave trough emanating from the Canadian Arctic, before initially digging to the lee of the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies, downstream of mid-level ridging building inland of the Pacific coast. The track and evolution of this perturbation through residual cyclonic flow across the interior through eastern U.S. remains varied within the model output. However, it currently appears that the initial surface wave development will remain weak, along a stalled remnant frontal zone across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and east/northeast of the Florida Peninsula late next Monday night through Tuesday morning. This currently seems likely to minimize the risk for organized severe thunderstorms. Read more View the full article

Flood Warning issued January 11 at 3:48AM EST until further notice by NWSView the full article

Flood Warning issued January 11 at 3:48AM EST until further notice by NWSView the full article

Flood Warning issued January 11 at 3:48AM EST until further notice by NWSView the full article

Flood Warning issued January 11 at 3:48AM EST until further notice by NWSView the full article

Flood Warning issued January 11 at 3:48AM EST until further notice by NWSView the full article

Flood Warning issued January 11 at 3:48AM EST until further notice by NWSView the full article

Wind Advisory issued January 11 at 3:15AM EST until January 13 at 1:00AM EST by NWSView the full article

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the U.S., Saturday through Saturday night. ...Discussion... While the center of a broad, initially intense, surface cyclone is generally forecast to weaken while migrating northeast of the Great Lakes region during this period, models suggest that a remnant mid-level circulation may begin to deepen while turning northward toward James Bay. In their wake, Arctic air, initially banked up across the northern Great Plains into the Rockies, appears likely to surge southeastward through much of the southern Great Plains and lower Mississippi Valley by late Saturday night. This will reinforce a preceding cold front, which is forecast to advance offshore and away from much of the Atlantic Seaboard, while stalling across the southern Florida Peninsula through southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Coupled with low-level warming and moistening, dynamically driven steepening of lapse rates above a cool/stable boundary layer may be contributing to convection capable of producing lightning near southeastern New England coastal areas early in the period. Otherwise, some weak thunderstorm development will remain possible along the stalling front, though this may remain mostly confined to areas near and offshore of the southern Florida coastal waters. ..Kerr.. 01/11/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the U.S., Saturday through Saturday night. ...Discussion... While the center of a broad, initially intense, surface cyclone is generally forecast to weaken while migrating northeast of the Great Lakes region during this period, models suggest that a remnant mid-level circulation may begin to deepen while turning northward toward James Bay. In their wake, Arctic air, initially banked up across the northern Great Plains into the Rockies, appears likely to surge southeastward through much of the southern Great Plains and lower Mississippi Valley by late Saturday night. This will reinforce a preceding cold front, which is forecast to advance offshore and away from much of the Atlantic Seaboard, while stalling across the southern Florida Peninsula through southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Coupled with low-level warming and moistening, dynamically driven steepening of lapse rates above a cool/stable boundary layer may be contributing to convection capable of producing lightning near southeastern New England coastal areas early in the period. Otherwise, some weak thunderstorm development will remain possible along the stalling front, though this may remain mostly confined to areas near and offshore of the southern Florida coastal waters. ..Kerr.. 01/11/2024 Read more View the full article

Flood Warning issued January 11 at 2:57AM EST until January 11 at 7:00PM EST by NWSView the full article

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... The surface low previously over the southern Plains is forecast to deepen rapidly and lift away into the OH Valley as the parent trough intensifies over the Midwest. In the wake of the trough/low, a cold front will move south over the southern Plains toward the Gulf coast, supporting strong northwesterly winds and dry surface conditions over parts of southwest TX. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible before an Arctic front arrives with much colder temperatures. ...Southwest Texas & Rio Grande Valley... Behind the leading cold front, strong northwesterly surface flow is expected across the Rio Grande Valley and Southwest Texas on Friday. Several days of dry/breezy conditions have allowed antecedent fine fuels to dry sufficiently to support fire spread. Winds will be strongest through early afternoon before weakening into the overnight hours as the surface low lifts away to the northeast. A few hours of overlap of the stronger winds with RH values below 20% will promote elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. ..Lyons.. 01/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... The surface low previously over the southern Plains is forecast to deepen rapidly and lift away into the OH Valley as the parent trough intensifies over the Midwest. In the wake of the trough/low, a cold front will move south over the southern Plains toward the Gulf coast, supporting strong northwesterly winds and dry surface conditions over parts of southwest TX. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible before an Arctic front arrives with much colder temperatures. ...Southwest Texas & Rio Grande Valley... Behind the leading cold front, strong northwesterly surface flow is expected across the Rio Grande Valley and Southwest Texas on Friday. Several days of dry/breezy conditions have allowed antecedent fine fuels to dry sufficiently to support fire spread. Winds will be strongest through early afternoon before weakening into the overnight hours as the surface low lifts away to the northeast. A few hours of overlap of the stronger winds with RH values below 20% will promote elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. ..Lyons.. 01/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... A broad upper-level trough will quickly intensify over the Southwest before ejecting into the southern Plains by the end of the forecast period. Strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the southern CONUS as a surface lee cyclone rapidly deepens over TX/OK. South of the low, very strong surface winds and low humidity are expected to support elevated fire-weather conditions over parts of the TX Trans Pecos and Big Bend region. ...Texas Trans-Pecos... With the strong trough ejecting eastward, the lee low is expected to rapidly intensify through the day along the Red River. Low-level westerly winds will quickly increase to the southwest of the surface low track across parts of southern NM and west TX. Dry and windy conditions, with gusts to 30-40 mph and RH below 20%, are expected to support a few hours of meteorological elevated/critical conditions in the Trans-Pecos. Several days of preceding dry/windy conditions have recently allowed fine fuels to dry enough to support some risk of fire spread. With the expected overlap of gusty winds and low humidity over drying fuels, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible. ..Lyons.. 01/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1205 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...MUCH OF CENTRAL GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, with potential to produce high winds and a few strong tornadoes, are possible across parts of the Southeast Friday through Friday evening. ...Discussion... There appears little substantive change in the latest available ECENS/ECMWF and GEFS concerning the forecast evolution for this period. Strong surface cyclogenesis is likely to proceed Friday across the Mississippi Valley through Atlantic Seaboard, as a vigorous supporting short wave trough pivots northeast of the southern Great Plains. It still appears that the center of the growing cyclone will undergo a period of rapid deepening across the lower Ohio Valley during the day, including minimum surface pressures falling on the order of 15-20 mb in a 12 hour period, though the 00Z NAM/03Z RAP take a track to the northwest of the other guidance into the Great Lakes region through late Friday night. Regardless, associated strengthening of deep-layer wind fields probably will including a developing swath of 90-120+ kt cyclonic/southwesterly flow at 500 mb across the lower Mississippi Valley, through portions of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic by the end of the period. In the 850-700 mb layer, 50-90 kt south to southwesterly flow is generally forecast to overspread the inland advancing warm sector. There remains some uncertainty concerning just how expansive of an unstable warm sector may develop, with perhaps low-level warming and moistening becoming sufficient, in the presence of strong forcing for ascent, for weak boundary-layer destabilization northeast of the lower Mississippi Valley through parts of the Tennessee and lower Ohio Valleys during the day. More substantive low-level moistening is probable off the north central/northeastern Gulf of Mexico, into the eastern Gulf through south Atlantic coast states. However, with the mid-level cold pool forecast to shift north of this region, relatively warm layers aloft, even in advance of mid-level subsidence warming nosing east-northeastward across coastal areas, could inhibit destabilization. More problematic, concerning the severe weather potential, the NAM and Rapid Refresh forecast soundings are slow to erode the initially cool boundary layer, and maintain at least a shallow near surface stable layer. If this verifies, convective potential will probably be mitigated. However, a corridor of strong surface pressure falls still appears likely to develop across the Southeastern Piedmont, from Alabama through the Carolinas midday Friday through Friday evening, near the southern periphery of the mid-level height falls. Associated forcing may contribute to more rapid modification of the boundary-layer, in the presence of an environment otherwise becoming conditionally supportive of significant severe weather potential. Strong to severe thunderstorm development, initiating Thursday night across the southeastern Great Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley, may be ongoing at the outset of the period, spreading east-northeast of the Mississippi River Friday morning, before perhaps weakening. Renewed thunderstorm intensification is then expected near/ahead of a developing pre-frontal dryline structure developing across east central/southeastern Alabama by early afternoon, particularly near where it intersects a strengthening frontal zone across the Piedmont. This probably will be maintained while spreading east-northeastward across Georgia into the Carolinas by late Friday evening. Although the evolution of an organized convective cluster still appears possible, discrete supercell development may remain the primary convective mode, accompanied by a risk for strong tornadoes. ..Kerr.. 01/11/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1205 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...MUCH OF CENTRAL GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, with potential to produce high winds and a few strong tornadoes, are possible across parts of the Southeast Friday through Friday evening. ...Discussion... There appears little substantive change in the latest available ECENS/ECMWF and GEFS concerning the forecast evolution for this period. Strong surface cyclogenesis is likely to proceed Friday across the Mississippi Valley through Atlantic Seaboard, as a vigorous supporting short wave trough pivots northeast of the southern Great Plains. It still appears that the center of the growing cyclone will undergo a period of rapid deepening across the lower Ohio Valley during the day, including minimum surface pressures falling on the order of 15-20 mb in a 12 hour period, though the 00Z NAM/03Z RAP take a track to the northwest of the other guidance into the Great Lakes region through late Friday night. Regardless, associated strengthening of deep-layer wind fields probably will including a developing swath of 90-120+ kt cyclonic/southwesterly flow at 500 mb across the lower Mississippi Valley, through portions of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic by the end of the period. In the 850-700 mb layer, 50-90 kt south to southwesterly flow is generally forecast to overspread the inland advancing warm sector. There remains some uncertainty concerning just how expansive of an unstable warm sector may develop, with perhaps low-level warming and moistening becoming sufficient, in the presence of strong forcing for ascent, for weak boundary-layer destabilization northeast of the lower Mississippi Valley through parts of the Tennessee and lower Ohio Valleys during the day. More substantive low-level moistening is probable off the north central/northeastern Gulf of Mexico, into the eastern Gulf through south Atlantic coast states. However, with the mid-level cold pool forecast to shift north of this region, relatively warm layers aloft, even in advance of mid-level subsidence warming nosing east-northeastward across coastal areas, could inhibit destabilization. More problematic, concerning the severe weather potential, the NAM and Rapid Refresh forecast soundings are slow to erode the initially cool boundary layer, and maintain at least a shallow near surface stable layer. If this verifies, convective potential will probably be mitigated. However, a corridor of strong surface pressure falls still appears likely to develop across the Southeastern Piedmont, from Alabama through the Carolinas midday Friday through Friday evening, near the southern periphery of the mid-level height falls. Associated forcing may contribute to more rapid modification of the boundary-layer, in the presence of an environment otherwise becoming conditionally supportive of significant severe weather potential. Strong to severe thunderstorm development, initiating Thursday night across the southeastern Great Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley, may be ongoing at the outset of the period, spreading east-northeast of the Mississippi River Friday morning, before perhaps weakening. Renewed thunderstorm intensification is then expected near/ahead of a developing pre-frontal dryline structure developing across east central/southeastern Alabama by early afternoon, particularly near where it intersects a strengthening frontal zone across the Piedmont. This probably will be maintained while spreading east-northeastward across Georgia into the Carolinas by late Friday evening. Although the evolution of an organized convective cluster still appears possible, discrete supercell development may remain the primary convective mode, accompanied by a risk for strong tornadoes. ..Kerr.. 01/11/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 PM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ARK-LA-TEX... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, associated with tornadoes, wind damage and isolated large hail, are likely to develop across parts of the Ark-La-Tex this evening into the overnight. A severe threat is also expected to develop further south across parts of east Texas and Louisiana. ...Ark-La-Tex... An impressive upper-level system will translate quickly eastward through the Desert Southwest today, reaching the southern Plains this evening. Within the base of the trough, a 100 to 120 knot mid-level jet will move through west Texas this evening, as the nose of the jet overspreads the Ark-La-Tex. Ahead of the system, moisture will return northward across east Texas and Louisiana, with the nose of the moist sector reaching southern Arkansas by early evening. In response, a pocket of instability is forecast to develop across southeast Oklahoma, southwest Arkansas and northeast Texas, where convective initiation is expected during the mid evening. Thunderstorms are likely to rapidly increase in coverage during the late evening. Most hi-resolution models develop a line of strong to severe storms and move the line slowly eastward across southwest Arkansas and far northeast Texas during the early overnight period. As lift and shear increase due to the approach the mid-level jet, conditions are expected to become favorable for severe storms. Model forecast soundings across the Ark-La-Tex by 06Z have surface dewpoints near 60 F as far north as the Louisiana and Arkansas state line. Even so, MLCAPE should reach the 500 to 1000 J/kg range at the northern edge of the moist sector by late evening. Very strong lift associated with the exit region of the mid-level jet combined with low LCL heights and strong low-level shear should be favorable for supercells embedded in the line, and with the more discrete cells that develop ahead of the line. Some forecast soundings suggest that 700-500 mb lapse rates will approach 8 C/km across the northern part of the warm sector. Although the large-hail threat should remain isolated, the steep mid-level lapse rates should be sufficient for a significant-hail threat. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible a few hours after cells initiation, as the storms mature. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to peak near 400 m2/s2 in and just north of the Shreveport vicinity. This is also expected to support a tornado threat with the more intense supercells. Any supercell that can persist and become dominant may be able to produce a significant tornado or two. A wind-damage threat will also likely develop along the line of storms, with the greatest potential located across Ark-La-Tex, where an Enhanced risk has been introduced. ...East Texas/Louisiana... Further south into east Texas and Louisiana, storm coverage is expected to be more isolated from the late evening into the overnight period. In this area, to the south of the mid-level jet axis, instability is not expected to be as strong. Also, lift may not be quite as concentrated. For this reason, supercell development is expected to remain more isolated. Any cell that can become organized and sustained could produce isolated large hail, wind damage and a tornado or two. The severe threat should more isolated with southward extent, with only a marginal severe threat expected near in the coastal sections of southeast Texas and southern Louisiana. ..Broyles/Lyons.. 01/11/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 PM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ARK-LA-TEX... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, associated with tornadoes, wind damage and isolated large hail, are likely to develop across parts of the Ark-La-Tex this evening into the overnight. A severe threat is also expected to develop further south across parts of east Texas and Louisiana. ...Ark-La-Tex... An impressive upper-level system will translate quickly eastward through the Desert Southwest today, reaching the southern Plains this evening. Within the base of the trough, a 100 to 120 knot mid-level jet will move through west Texas this evening, as the nose of the jet overspreads the Ark-La-Tex. Ahead of the system, moisture will return northward across east Texas and Louisiana, with the nose of the moist sector reaching southern Arkansas by early evening. In response, a pocket of instability is forecast to develop across southeast Oklahoma, southwest Arkansas and northeast Texas, where convective initiation is expected during the mid evening. Thunderstorms are likely to rapidly increase in coverage during the late evening. Most hi-resolution models develop a line of strong to severe storms and move the line slowly eastward across southwest Arkansas and far northeast Texas during the early overnight period. As lift and shear increase due to the approach the mid-level jet, conditions are expected to become favorable for severe storms. Model forecast soundings across the Ark-La-Tex by 06Z have surface dewpoints near 60 F as far north as the Louisiana and Arkansas state line. Even so, MLCAPE should reach the 500 to 1000 J/kg range at the northern edge of the moist sector by late evening. Very strong lift associated with the exit region of the mid-level jet combined with low LCL heights and strong low-level shear should be favorable for supercells embedded in the line, and with the more discrete cells that develop ahead of the line. Some forecast soundings suggest that 700-500 mb lapse rates will approach 8 C/km across the northern part of the warm sector. Although the large-hail threat should remain isolated, the steep mid-level lapse rates should be sufficient for a significant-hail threat. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible a few hours after cells initiation, as the storms mature. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to peak near 400 m2/s2 in and just north of the Shreveport vicinity. This is also expected to support a tornado threat with the more intense supercells. Any supercell that can persist and become dominant may be able to produce a significant tornado or two. A wind-damage threat will also likely develop along the line of storms, with the greatest potential located across Ark-La-Tex, where an Enhanced risk has been introduced. ...East Texas/Louisiana... Further south into east Texas and Louisiana, storm coverage is expected to be more isolated from the late evening into the overnight period. In this area, to the south of the mid-level jet axis, instability is not expected to be as strong. Also, lift may not be quite as concentrated. For this reason, supercell development is expected to remain more isolated. Any cell that can become organized and sustained could produce isolated large hail, wind damage and a tornado or two. The severe threat should more isolated with southward extent, with only a marginal severe threat expected near in the coastal sections of southeast Texas and southern Louisiana. ..Broyles/Lyons.. 01/11/2024 Read more View the full article

Flood Warning issued January 10 at 10:12PM EST until January 12 at 4:00AM EST by NWSView the full article

Flood Warning issued January 10 at 10:11PM EST until further notice by NWSView the full article

Flood Warning issued January 10 at 10:08PM EST until further notice by NWSView the full article

Flood Warning issued January 10 at 10:05PM EST until January 12 at 4:32AM EST by NWSView the full article

Flood Warning issued January 10 at 9:57PM EST until further notice by NWSView the full article

Flood Warning issued January 10 at 9:57PM EST until January 11 at 12:08PM EST by NWSView the full article