NorthGeorgiaWX

Flood Warning issued January 11 at 2:01PM EST until January 14 at 10:36AM EST by NWSView the full article

Wind Advisory issued January 11 at 1:46PM EST until January 13 at 7:00AM EST by NWSView the full article

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND FAR NORTHWEST ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing strong gusts, some potentially to 75 mph, and a few tornadoes, are possible across parts of the Southeast and into the Carolinas Friday through Friday evening. Highest chance of severe wind gusts is over northern and central Mississippi and far northwest Alabama Friday morning. ...Synopsis... A strong shortwave trough is expected to extend from the central Plains through central TX early Friday. An intense jet streak will accompany this shortwave, characterized by 110-120 kt at 500 mb. Expectation is for this shortwave to move quickly northeastward throughout the period, traversing the Mid-South, Mid MS Valley and Lower/Middle OH Valley while also becoming increasingly negatively tilted. The strong mid-level flow will be maintained during this time frame as well, spreading eastward/northeastward across much of the Mid-South, TN Valley and into the Upper OH Valley. Primary surface low associated with this shortwave will likely be over central MO early Friday morning, before gradually moving northeastward while occluding. Secondary triple-point low is anticipated farther south, likely in the central AR vicinity early before then tracking eastward across the southern TN and northern AL/MS/GA vicinity. Severe risk will be confined south of this secondary low, beginning early across the Mid-South before shifting eastward across the Southeast and into the Carolinas throughout the day. Given the strong kinematic fields and modest buoyancy, strong gusts are expected to be the primary severe risk, but some line-embedded tornadoes are possible as well. ...Mid-South vicinity Friday morning into the afternoon... A convective line will likely be ongoing early Friday morning across eastern AR. General expectation is that this line will become better organized Friday morning as strong large-scale forcing for ascent and the intense mid-level jet streak spread eastward/northeastward. Thermodynamic profiles suggest this line may be quite shallow, with limited lightning production. Even so, the strong ascent and intense wind fields will likely result in a strongly forced, fast-moving convective line capable of strong, potentially significant, gusts. General northeastward progression of this line will result an increasing northerly displacement of this line from the better low-level moisture. This evolution will likely lead to an increasingly elevated storm as well as increasing low-level stability. These factors should result in lower probabilities for strong gusts as the line moves into central/eastern KY and eastern TN during the afternoon. ...Southeast Friday morning into the evening... As the primary surface low occludes over the Mid MS valley, and associated cold front is forecast to move quickly eastward across the Southeast states. Low 60s dewpoints are expected to advect northward just ahead of this front across southern portion of MS, AL, GA, and the FL Panhandle, with the fast eastward-progression of the cold front acting as a limiting factor for stronger moisture return. This limited low-level moisture, combined with warmer mid-level temperatures, will likely limit overall buoyancy, tempering updraft strength and storm severity. Some stronger storms are still possible, particularly if low-level moisture is better than forecast, with strong kinematics supporting the potential for some damaging convective gusts. Cell mergers could also augment storm strength enough to produce some strong gusts. A tornado or two is also possible if a storm can maintain discrete characteristics and longer updraft duration. However, given the anticipated thermodynamic profiles, the tornado threat appears lower than previously anticipated. ...Carolinas late Friday afternoon through the evening... Warm-air advection showers and thunderstorms will likely spread into the region during the afternoon, ahead of the cold front approaching from the west. Strong vertical shear will be in place, and a few of these storms could produce small hail. A lower chance for stronger gusts will exist with this activity as well, largely a result of its elevated character. Potential exists for storms to trend towards a more surface-based character as low-level moisture increases ahead of the approaching front, particularly across southern portions of the region. This could lead to a few stronger convective gusts and maybe even a brief tornado. However, poor lapse rates limited buoyancy and persistent low-level stability should limit updraft strength and duration. ..Mosier.. 01/11/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND FAR NORTHWEST ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing strong gusts, some potentially to 75 mph, and a few tornadoes, are possible across parts of the Southeast and into the Carolinas Friday through Friday evening. Highest chance of severe wind gusts is over northern and central Mississippi and far northwest Alabama Friday morning. ...Synopsis... A strong shortwave trough is expected to extend from the central Plains through central TX early Friday. An intense jet streak will accompany this shortwave, characterized by 110-120 kt at 500 mb. Expectation is for this shortwave to move quickly northeastward throughout the period, traversing the Mid-South, Mid MS Valley and Lower/Middle OH Valley while also becoming increasingly negatively tilted. The strong mid-level flow will be maintained during this time frame as well, spreading eastward/northeastward across much of the Mid-South, TN Valley and into the Upper OH Valley. Primary surface low associated with this shortwave will likely be over central MO early Friday morning, before gradually moving northeastward while occluding. Secondary triple-point low is anticipated farther south, likely in the central AR vicinity early before then tracking eastward across the southern TN and northern AL/MS/GA vicinity. Severe risk will be confined south of this secondary low, beginning early across the Mid-South before shifting eastward across the Southeast and into the Carolinas throughout the day. Given the strong kinematic fields and modest buoyancy, strong gusts are expected to be the primary severe risk, but some line-embedded tornadoes are possible as well. ...Mid-South vicinity Friday morning into the afternoon... A convective line will likely be ongoing early Friday morning across eastern AR. General expectation is that this line will become better organized Friday morning as strong large-scale forcing for ascent and the intense mid-level jet streak spread eastward/northeastward. Thermodynamic profiles suggest this line may be quite shallow, with limited lightning production. Even so, the strong ascent and intense wind fields will likely result in a strongly forced, fast-moving convective line capable of strong, potentially significant, gusts. General northeastward progression of this line will result an increasing northerly displacement of this line from the better low-level moisture. This evolution will likely lead to an increasingly elevated storm as well as increasing low-level stability. These factors should result in lower probabilities for strong gusts as the line moves into central/eastern KY and eastern TN during the afternoon. ...Southeast Friday morning into the evening... As the primary surface low occludes over the Mid MS valley, and associated cold front is forecast to move quickly eastward across the Southeast states. Low 60s dewpoints are expected to advect northward just ahead of this front across southern portion of MS, AL, GA, and the FL Panhandle, with the fast eastward-progression of the cold front acting as a limiting factor for stronger moisture return. This limited low-level moisture, combined with warmer mid-level temperatures, will likely limit overall buoyancy, tempering updraft strength and storm severity. Some stronger storms are still possible, particularly if low-level moisture is better than forecast, with strong kinematics supporting the potential for some damaging convective gusts. Cell mergers could also augment storm strength enough to produce some strong gusts. A tornado or two is also possible if a storm can maintain discrete characteristics and longer updraft duration. However, given the anticipated thermodynamic profiles, the tornado threat appears lower than previously anticipated. ...Carolinas late Friday afternoon through the evening... Warm-air advection showers and thunderstorms will likely spread into the region during the afternoon, ahead of the cold front approaching from the west. Strong vertical shear will be in place, and a few of these storms could produce small hail. A lower chance for stronger gusts will exist with this activity as well, largely a result of its elevated character. Potential exists for storms to trend towards a more surface-based character as low-level moisture increases ahead of the approaching front, particularly across southern portions of the region. This could lead to a few stronger convective gusts and maybe even a brief tornado. However, poor lapse rates limited buoyancy and persistent low-level stability should limit updraft strength and duration. ..Mosier.. 01/11/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND FAR NORTHWEST ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing strong gusts, some potentially to 75 mph, and a few tornadoes, are possible across parts of the Southeast and into the Carolinas Friday through Friday evening. Highest chance of severe wind gusts is over northern and central Mississippi and far northwest Alabama Friday morning. ...Synopsis... A strong shortwave trough is expected to extend from the central Plains through central TX early Friday. An intense jet streak will accompany this shortwave, characterized by 110-120 kt at 500 mb. Expectation is for this shortwave to move quickly northeastward throughout the period, traversing the Mid-South, Mid MS Valley and Lower/Middle OH Valley while also becoming increasingly negatively tilted. The strong mid-level flow will be maintained during this time frame as well, spreading eastward/northeastward across much of the Mid-South, TN Valley and into the Upper OH Valley. Primary surface low associated with this shortwave will likely be over central MO early Friday morning, before gradually moving northeastward while occluding. Secondary triple-point low is anticipated farther south, likely in the central AR vicinity early before then tracking eastward across the southern TN and northern AL/MS/GA vicinity. Severe risk will be confined south of this secondary low, beginning early across the Mid-South before shifting eastward across the Southeast and into the Carolinas throughout the day. Given the strong kinematic fields and modest buoyancy, strong gusts are expected to be the primary severe risk, but some line-embedded tornadoes are possible as well. ...Mid-South vicinity Friday morning into the afternoon... A convective line will likely be ongoing early Friday morning across eastern AR. General expectation is that this line will become better organized Friday morning as strong large-scale forcing for ascent and the intense mid-level jet streak spread eastward/northeastward. Thermodynamic profiles suggest this line may be quite shallow, with limited lightning production. Even so, the strong ascent and intense wind fields will likely result in a strongly forced, fast-moving convective line capable of strong, potentially significant, gusts. General northeastward progression of this line will result an increasing northerly displacement of this line from the better low-level moisture. This evolution will likely lead to an increasingly elevated storm as well as increasing low-level stability. These factors should result in lower probabilities for strong gusts as the line moves into central/eastern KY and eastern TN during the afternoon. ...Southeast Friday morning into the evening... As the primary surface low occludes over the Mid MS valley, and associated cold front is forecast to move quickly eastward across the Southeast states. Low 60s dewpoints are expected to advect northward just ahead of this front across southern portion of MS, AL, GA, and the FL Panhandle, with the fast eastward-progression of the cold front acting as a limiting factor for stronger moisture return. This limited low-level moisture, combined with warmer mid-level temperatures, will likely limit overall buoyancy, tempering updraft strength and storm severity. Some stronger storms are still possible, particularly if low-level moisture is better than forecast, with strong kinematics supporting the potential for some damaging convective gusts. Cell mergers could also augment storm strength enough to produce some strong gusts. A tornado or two is also possible if a storm can maintain discrete characteristics and longer updraft duration. However, given the anticipated thermodynamic profiles, the tornado threat appears lower than previously anticipated. ...Carolinas late Friday afternoon through the evening... Warm-air advection showers and thunderstorms will likely spread into the region during the afternoon, ahead of the cold front approaching from the west. Strong vertical shear will be in place, and a few of these storms could produce small hail. A lower chance for stronger gusts will exist with this activity as well, largely a result of its elevated character. Potential exists for storms to trend towards a more surface-based character as low-level moisture increases ahead of the approaching front, particularly across southern portions of the region. This could lead to a few stronger convective gusts and maybe even a brief tornado. However, poor lapse rates limited buoyancy and persistent low-level stability should limit updraft strength and duration. ..Mosier.. 01/11/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND FAR NORTHWEST ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing strong gusts, some potentially to 75 mph, and a few tornadoes, are possible across parts of the Southeast and into the Carolinas Friday through Friday evening. Highest chance of severe wind gusts is over northern and central Mississippi and far northwest Alabama Friday morning. ...Synopsis... A strong shortwave trough is expected to extend from the central Plains through central TX early Friday. An intense jet streak will accompany this shortwave, characterized by 110-120 kt at 500 mb. Expectation is for this shortwave to move quickly northeastward throughout the period, traversing the Mid-South, Mid MS Valley and Lower/Middle OH Valley while also becoming increasingly negatively tilted. The strong mid-level flow will be maintained during this time frame as well, spreading eastward/northeastward across much of the Mid-South, TN Valley and into the Upper OH Valley. Primary surface low associated with this shortwave will likely be over central MO early Friday morning, before gradually moving northeastward while occluding. Secondary triple-point low is anticipated farther south, likely in the central AR vicinity early before then tracking eastward across the southern TN and northern AL/MS/GA vicinity. Severe risk will be confined south of this secondary low, beginning early across the Mid-South before shifting eastward across the Southeast and into the Carolinas throughout the day. Given the strong kinematic fields and modest buoyancy, strong gusts are expected to be the primary severe risk, but some line-embedded tornadoes are possible as well. ...Mid-South vicinity Friday morning into the afternoon... A convective line will likely be ongoing early Friday morning across eastern AR. General expectation is that this line will become better organized Friday morning as strong large-scale forcing for ascent and the intense mid-level jet streak spread eastward/northeastward. Thermodynamic profiles suggest this line may be quite shallow, with limited lightning production. Even so, the strong ascent and intense wind fields will likely result in a strongly forced, fast-moving convective line capable of strong, potentially significant, gusts. General northeastward progression of this line will result an increasing northerly displacement of this line from the better low-level moisture. This evolution will likely lead to an increasingly elevated storm as well as increasing low-level stability. These factors should result in lower probabilities for strong gusts as the line moves into central/eastern KY and eastern TN during the afternoon. ...Southeast Friday morning into the evening... As the primary surface low occludes over the Mid MS valley, and associated cold front is forecast to move quickly eastward across the Southeast states. Low 60s dewpoints are expected to advect northward just ahead of this front across southern portion of MS, AL, GA, and the FL Panhandle, with the fast eastward-progression of the cold front acting as a limiting factor for stronger moisture return. This limited low-level moisture, combined with warmer mid-level temperatures, will likely limit overall buoyancy, tempering updraft strength and storm severity. Some stronger storms are still possible, particularly if low-level moisture is better than forecast, with strong kinematics supporting the potential for some damaging convective gusts. Cell mergers could also augment storm strength enough to produce some strong gusts. A tornado or two is also possible if a storm can maintain discrete characteristics and longer updraft duration. However, given the anticipated thermodynamic profiles, the tornado threat appears lower than previously anticipated. ...Carolinas late Friday afternoon through the evening... Warm-air advection showers and thunderstorms will likely spread into the region during the afternoon, ahead of the cold front approaching from the west. Strong vertical shear will be in place, and a few of these storms could produce small hail. A lower chance for stronger gusts will exist with this activity as well, largely a result of its elevated character. Potential exists for storms to trend towards a more surface-based character as low-level moisture increases ahead of the approaching front, particularly across southern portions of the region. This could lead to a few stronger convective gusts and maybe even a brief tornado. However, poor lapse rates limited buoyancy and persistent low-level stability should limit updraft strength and duration. ..Mosier.. 01/11/2024 Read more View the full article

MD 0044 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN IDAHO INTO EXTREME WESTERN MONTANA Mesoscale Discussion 0044 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2024 Areas affected...portions of northern Idaho into extreme western Montana Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 111725Z - 112030Z SUMMARY...Heavy snow should continue for at least a few more hours, with 1-2 inch/hr snowfall rates common. Reduced visibility is likely in the heavier snow bands. DISCUSSION...A low-level cyclone is drifting southeast across the Idaho Panhandle into extreme western Montana as a mid-level impulse traverses the International border, providing deep-layer ascent. Latest mesoanalysis and RAP forecast soundings characterize vertical profiles as near saturated, with deep-layer steep lapse rates, supporting a sufficiently deep and moist dendritic growth zone to support continued 1-2 inch/hr snowfall rates given strong lift in place. Latest high-resolution guidance suggests that at least brief bouts of heavy snow and perhaps reduced visibility should continue through at least 21Z. ..Squitieri.. 01/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MSO...OTX... LAT...LON 46821614 47311678 47791724 48091710 48401652 48321593 47821523 47331468 46911470 46791560 46821614 Read more View the full article

Wind Advisory issued January 11 at 12:23PM EST until January 13 at 7:00AM EST by NWSView the full article

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2024 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX REGION.... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and large hail are possible tonight over the Arklatex region, and nearby parts of southeastern Oklahoma, east Texas, Arkansas, and western/northern Louisiana. Morning water vapor imagery shows a progressive upper trough digging southeastward toward the Four Corners region. This trough and associated intense mid/upper level jet will move into the southern Plains tonight, aiding in rapid cyclogenesis over OK/TX. Strengthening southerly low-level winds in the warm sector will transport Gulf moisture northward and result in a corridor of severe thunderstorm activity late tonight. Present indications are that storms will first form in the warm advection regime across parts of AR after dark. These initial storms will be in an environment of steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear, favorable for large hail. Supercell structures will be favored, and dewpoints in the upper 50s might be sufficient for at least a modest risk of a tornado or two. The more robust severe threat is likely to evolve after midnight as the mid-level jet max surges eastward across east TX and atop the warm sector. Storms are expected to form along/ahead of the cold front over northeast TX and track rapidly east-northeastward across the ENH area. The overall synoptic setup for this event would be very impressive and favorable for severe thunderstorms, but low-level moisture is somewhat lacking. Nevertheless, fast-moving supercells and bowing structures are possible early Friday morning as storms trek across parts of AR and northern LA. Widespread damaging winds and strong tornadoes are possible - especially if low-level moisture is just slightly greater than currently forecast. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 01/11/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2024 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX REGION.... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and large hail are possible tonight over the Arklatex region, and nearby parts of southeastern Oklahoma, east Texas, Arkansas, and western/northern Louisiana. Morning water vapor imagery shows a progressive upper trough digging southeastward toward the Four Corners region. This trough and associated intense mid/upper level jet will move into the southern Plains tonight, aiding in rapid cyclogenesis over OK/TX. Strengthening southerly low-level winds in the warm sector will transport Gulf moisture northward and result in a corridor of severe thunderstorm activity late tonight. Present indications are that storms will first form in the warm advection regime across parts of AR after dark. These initial storms will be in an environment of steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear, favorable for large hail. Supercell structures will be favored, and dewpoints in the upper 50s might be sufficient for at least a modest risk of a tornado or two. The more robust severe threat is likely to evolve after midnight as the mid-level jet max surges eastward across east TX and atop the warm sector. Storms are expected to form along/ahead of the cold front over northeast TX and track rapidly east-northeastward across the ENH area. The overall synoptic setup for this event would be very impressive and favorable for severe thunderstorms, but low-level moisture is somewhat lacking. Nevertheless, fast-moving supercells and bowing structures are possible early Friday morning as storms trek across parts of AR and northern LA. Widespread damaging winds and strong tornadoes are possible - especially if low-level moisture is just slightly greater than currently forecast. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 01/11/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2024 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX REGION.... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and large hail are possible tonight over the Arklatex region, and nearby parts of southeastern Oklahoma, east Texas, Arkansas, and western/northern Louisiana. Morning water vapor imagery shows a progressive upper trough digging southeastward toward the Four Corners region. This trough and associated intense mid/upper level jet will move into the southern Plains tonight, aiding in rapid cyclogenesis over OK/TX. Strengthening southerly low-level winds in the warm sector will transport Gulf moisture northward and result in a corridor of severe thunderstorm activity late tonight. Present indications are that storms will first form in the warm advection regime across parts of AR after dark. These initial storms will be in an environment of steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear, favorable for large hail. Supercell structures will be favored, and dewpoints in the upper 50s might be sufficient for at least a modest risk of a tornado or two. The more robust severe threat is likely to evolve after midnight as the mid-level jet max surges eastward across east TX and atop the warm sector. Storms are expected to form along/ahead of the cold front over northeast TX and track rapidly east-northeastward across the ENH area. The overall synoptic setup for this event would be very impressive and favorable for severe thunderstorms, but low-level moisture is somewhat lacking. Nevertheless, fast-moving supercells and bowing structures are possible early Friday morning as storms trek across parts of AR and northern LA. Widespread damaging winds and strong tornadoes are possible - especially if low-level moisture is just slightly greater than currently forecast. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 01/11/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2024 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX REGION.... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and large hail are possible tonight over the Arklatex region, and nearby parts of southeastern Oklahoma, east Texas, Arkansas, and western/northern Louisiana. Morning water vapor imagery shows a progressive upper trough digging southeastward toward the Four Corners region. This trough and associated intense mid/upper level jet will move into the southern Plains tonight, aiding in rapid cyclogenesis over OK/TX. Strengthening southerly low-level winds in the warm sector will transport Gulf moisture northward and result in a corridor of severe thunderstorm activity late tonight. Present indications are that storms will first form in the warm advection regime across parts of AR after dark. These initial storms will be in an environment of steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear, favorable for large hail. Supercell structures will be favored, and dewpoints in the upper 50s might be sufficient for at least a modest risk of a tornado or two. The more robust severe threat is likely to evolve after midnight as the mid-level jet max surges eastward across east TX and atop the warm sector. Storms are expected to form along/ahead of the cold front over northeast TX and track rapidly east-northeastward across the ENH area. The overall synoptic setup for this event would be very impressive and favorable for severe thunderstorms, but low-level moisture is somewhat lacking. Nevertheless, fast-moving supercells and bowing structures are possible early Friday morning as storms trek across parts of AR and northern LA. Widespread damaging winds and strong tornadoes are possible - especially if low-level moisture is just slightly greater than currently forecast. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 01/11/2024 Read more View the full article

MD 0043 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA INTO FAR WEST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO Mesoscale Discussion 0043 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2024 Areas affected...portions of east-central Arizona into far west-central New Mexico Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 111629Z - 112130Z SUMMARY...Periods of heavy snow are possible into the afternoon hours. Localized instances of 1-2 inch/hr snowfall rates may occur with the heaviest snow bands, which may also be accompanied by strong wind gusts and reduced visibility. The best chance for higher snowfall rates and stronger winds gusts will be in higher terrain areas. DISCUSSION...A surface cold front is progressing southeast across portions of the Lower Colorado River Basin this morning, providing some low-level convergence that is supporting an ongoing band of snow over central AZ. Deep-layer ascent is expected to increase further as a 100+ kt 500 mb jet streak overspreads the region, supporting convective snow bands (given sub-freezing surface temperatures, steep tropospheric lapse rates, and a near-saturated 700-500 mb layer per 15Z RAP forecast soundings and 16Z mesoanalysis). As such, 1-2 inch/hr snowfall rates may accompany the stronger snow bands later this morning into the afternoon hours. The best chance for heavier snow and strong wind gusts with reduced visibility will be in the higher terrain areas. Latest HREF guidance suggests that heavier snow and stronger winds are most likely in the 17-22Z period along the AZ/NM border. ..Squitieri.. 01/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR... LAT...LON 33890810 33460791 33240832 33160868 33210927 33390994 33721076 34431155 34841165 35081140 34560999 34120860 33890810 Read more View the full article

Flood Warning issued January 11 at 11:20AM EST until January 12 at 4:32AM EST by NWSView the full article

Flood Warning issued January 11 at 11:14AM EST until further notice by NWSView the full article

Flood Warning issued January 11 at 11:14AM EST until further notice by NWSView the full article

Flood Warning issued January 11 at 11:14AM EST until January 11 at 11:30PM EST by NWSView the full article

Flood Warning issued January 11 at 11:14AM EST until January 12 at 5:17AM EST by NWSView the full article

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1006 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad upper-level trough will quickly intensify over the Southwest before ejecting into the southern Plains by the end of the forecast period. Strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the southern CONUS as a surface lee cyclone rapidly deepens over TX/OK. South of the low, very strong surface winds and low humidity are expected to support elevated fire-weather conditions over parts of the TX Trans Pecos and Big Bend region. ...Texas Trans-Pecos... With the strong trough ejecting eastward, the lee low is expected to rapidly intensify through the day along the Red River. Low-level westerly winds will quickly increase to the southwest of the surface low track across parts of southern NM and west TX. Dry and windy conditions, with gusts to 30-40 mph and RH below 20%, are expected to support a few hours of meteorological elevated/critical conditions in the Trans-Pecos. Several days of preceding dry/windy conditions have recently allowed fine fuels to dry enough to support some risk of fire spread. With the expected overlap of gusty winds and low humidity over drying fuels, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1006 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad upper-level trough will quickly intensify over the Southwest before ejecting into the southern Plains by the end of the forecast period. Strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the southern CONUS as a surface lee cyclone rapidly deepens over TX/OK. South of the low, very strong surface winds and low humidity are expected to support elevated fire-weather conditions over parts of the TX Trans Pecos and Big Bend region. ...Texas Trans-Pecos... With the strong trough ejecting eastward, the lee low is expected to rapidly intensify through the day along the Red River. Low-level westerly winds will quickly increase to the southwest of the surface low track across parts of southern NM and west TX. Dry and windy conditions, with gusts to 30-40 mph and RH below 20%, are expected to support a few hours of meteorological elevated/critical conditions in the Trans-Pecos. Several days of preceding dry/windy conditions have recently allowed fine fuels to dry enough to support some risk of fire spread. With the expected overlap of gusty winds and low humidity over drying fuels, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

High Wind Warning issued January 11 at 11:05AM EST until January 12 at 7:00PM EST by NWSView the full article

Wind Advisory issued January 11 at 11:05AM EST until January 13 at 1:00AM EST by NWSView the full article

Wind Advisory issued January 11 at 11:05AM EST until January 13 at 1:00AM EST by NWSView the full article

Wind Advisory issued January 11 at 11:05AM EST until January 13 at 1:00AM EST by NWSView the full article

Flood Warning issued January 11 at 11:03AM EST until January 13 at 7:36PM EST by NWSView the full article