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Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued January 12 at 6:28PM EST until January 12 at 6:45PM EST by NWSView the full article

Severe Weather Statement issued January 12 at 6:28PM EST until January 12 at 6:45PM EST by NWSView the full article

Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued January 12 at 5:31PM EST until January 12 at 6:15PM EST by NWSView the full article

Special Weather Statement issued January 12 at 4:54PM EST by NWSView the full article

Special Weather Statement issued January 12 at 4:54PM EST by NWSView the full article

MD 0057 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE Mesoscale Discussion 0057 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Areas affected...much of southwest Georgia and parts of the Florida Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 122118Z - 122345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong storms cannot be ruled out over the next couple hours, from the Florida Panhandle into southwest Georgia. DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a dryline roughly bisecting AL and extending into the northern Gulf of Mexico, with a warm front from southern AL into northern FL. Relatively cool air remains in place over the TLH area, with warming noted into southwest GA. A small plume of 66-70 F dewpoints currently exist over the western FL Panhandle into far southwest GA, resulting in around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Strong wind fields remain over the area, with 850 mb southwesterlies over 60 kt. Boundary-layer mixing is aiding surface gusts of 25-35 kt with gradual theta-e recovery. Veering and increasing winds with height still conditionally support supercell and tornado risk, but overall ascent remains limited. As such, the area is being monitored for more robust storm initiation over the next few hours. A better chance at isolated severe storms would exist should the cool air over the FL Panhandle/southern GA finally modify. ..Jewell/Thompson.. 01/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE... LAT...LON 30278391 30138447 30278523 30448558 30688568 30998548 31678503 32368460 32438416 32278360 31718334 31118336 30758348 30278391 Read more View the full article

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z A series of mid-level troughs will traverse the CONUS during the upcoming week, reinforcing an arctic surface airmass over much of the CONUS and limiting wildfire-spread potential in most places. One localized exception would be portions of Far West Texas, which will experience dry downslope flow early in the week amid marginally receptive fuels. If guidance consensus continues to suggest that 15+ mph sustained westerly winds will develop during the afternoon, Elevated highlights may need to be added in the Days 1-2 period. Medium-range guidance also depicts surface lee troughing along the southern High Plains between mid-level troughs on Day 6/Wednesday, which may promote dry downslope flow. However, too much uncertainty remains this far in advance in terms of fuel receptiveness or best area of overlapping winds/RH to deduce with confidence whether Elevated-equivalent conditions will occur. ..Squitieri.. 01/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z A series of mid-level troughs will traverse the CONUS during the upcoming week, reinforcing an arctic surface airmass over much of the CONUS and limiting wildfire-spread potential in most places. One localized exception would be portions of Far West Texas, which will experience dry downslope flow early in the week amid marginally receptive fuels. If guidance consensus continues to suggest that 15+ mph sustained westerly winds will develop during the afternoon, Elevated highlights may need to be added in the Days 1-2 period. Medium-range guidance also depicts surface lee troughing along the southern High Plains between mid-level troughs on Day 6/Wednesday, which may promote dry downslope flow. However, too much uncertainty remains this far in advance in terms of fuel receptiveness or best area of overlapping winds/RH to deduce with confidence whether Elevated-equivalent conditions will occur. ..Squitieri.. 01/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z A series of mid-level troughs will traverse the CONUS during the upcoming week, reinforcing an arctic surface airmass over much of the CONUS and limiting wildfire-spread potential in most places. One localized exception would be portions of Far West Texas, which will experience dry downslope flow early in the week amid marginally receptive fuels. If guidance consensus continues to suggest that 15+ mph sustained westerly winds will develop during the afternoon, Elevated highlights may need to be added in the Days 1-2 period. Medium-range guidance also depicts surface lee troughing along the southern High Plains between mid-level troughs on Day 6/Wednesday, which may promote dry downslope flow. However, too much uncertainty remains this far in advance in terms of fuel receptiveness or best area of overlapping winds/RH to deduce with confidence whether Elevated-equivalent conditions will occur. ..Squitieri.. 01/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

MD 0056 CONCERNING BLIZZARD FOR IOWA Mesoscale Discussion 0056 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Areas affected...Iowa Concerning...Blizzard Valid 122029Z - 130030Z SUMMARY...Blizzard conditions will become more widespread through the afternoon and evening across portions of Iowa. DISCUSSION...The primary surface low continues to track to the northeast with recent surface observations/analyses depicting the center of the low over central IL. To the west/northwest of the low, a cold air mass continues to push southward across IA. Gradient winds have slowly been increasing with the approach and deepening of the low. While sustained winds have largely remained below 35 mph thus far, frequent gusts between 30-40 mph have been observed across IA with subsequent visibility reductions down to 1/4 mile. Winds are forecast to peak around 00 UTC with frequent gusts between 35-45 mph likely. Although snowfall should gradually diminish through the evening, a fresh, 2+ inch snow pack is in place across much of the state per recent LSRs. Blowing snow model output indicates that this combination of winds, a fresh/deep snow pack, and temperatures in the teens will support scattered to widespread blizzard conditions with prolonged visibility reductions of 1/4 mile or less. Based on recent hi-res guidance, portions of central/eastern IA may see wind gusts up to 50-55 mph over a 4-10 inch deep snow pack, resulting in a corridor of fairly intense blizzard conditions with near-zero visibilities possible. ..Moore.. 01/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX... LAT...LON 42569536 42099566 41539565 41269543 40969480 40269277 40339192 40639135 40879120 41539128 42179129 42469118 42879110 43299131 43509162 43499262 43369346 43029467 42569536 Read more View the full article

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z Elevated highlights have been added to portions of Far West Texas, as the latest guidance consensus depicts stronger surface winds by afternoon, with 15+ mph sustained westerly winds overlapping with 15 percent RH for at least a few hours. Fuels in this region also appear modestly receptive to fire spread. However, the rest of the CONUS should see limited wildfire-spread concerns due to either very cold surface temperatures, abundant precipitation, and/or non-receptive fuels. ..Squitieri.. 01/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... Strong deep-layer west-northwesterly flow will persist across the southern Rockies on Saturday, favoring a weak lee cyclone over eastern NM (ahead of an approaching cold front). Along the southern periphery of the lee cyclone, breezy/gusty westerly surface winds are expected across the TX Trans-Pecos region, where downslope flow will support 10-15 percent minimum RH. As a result, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, though these conditions appear too marginal/localized for highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z Elevated highlights have been added to portions of Far West Texas, as the latest guidance consensus depicts stronger surface winds by afternoon, with 15+ mph sustained westerly winds overlapping with 15 percent RH for at least a few hours. Fuels in this region also appear modestly receptive to fire spread. However, the rest of the CONUS should see limited wildfire-spread concerns due to either very cold surface temperatures, abundant precipitation, and/or non-receptive fuels. ..Squitieri.. 01/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... Strong deep-layer west-northwesterly flow will persist across the southern Rockies on Saturday, favoring a weak lee cyclone over eastern NM (ahead of an approaching cold front). Along the southern periphery of the lee cyclone, breezy/gusty westerly surface winds are expected across the TX Trans-Pecos region, where downslope flow will support 10-15 percent minimum RH. As a result, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, though these conditions appear too marginal/localized for highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z Elevated highlights have been added to portions of Far West Texas, as the latest guidance consensus depicts stronger surface winds by afternoon, with 15+ mph sustained westerly winds overlapping with 15 percent RH for at least a few hours. Fuels in this region also appear modestly receptive to fire spread. However, the rest of the CONUS should see limited wildfire-spread concerns due to either very cold surface temperatures, abundant precipitation, and/or non-receptive fuels. ..Squitieri.. 01/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... Strong deep-layer west-northwesterly flow will persist across the southern Rockies on Saturday, favoring a weak lee cyclone over eastern NM (ahead of an approaching cold front). Along the southern periphery of the lee cyclone, breezy/gusty westerly surface winds are expected across the TX Trans-Pecos region, where downslope flow will support 10-15 percent minimum RH. As a result, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, though these conditions appear too marginal/localized for highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN AL...SOUTHERN GA...NORTHERN FL...AND SOUTHERN SC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes remain possible this afternoon into tonight across southern Alabama, southern Georgia, northern Florida, and southern South Carolina. ...20Z Update... A shortwave trough continues to push quickly northeastward across the Mid MS Valley, with its accompanying intense jet streak stretching from OK/north TX through the TN Valley into the central Appalachians. Evolution of this shortwave northeastward has lead to increased displacement between the primary forcing for ascent and the warm sector, which currently only reaching as far north as southern AL and southern GA. Based on 19Z surface analysis, the 56 deg F isodrosotherm runs from southern MS northeastward into central AL and then back southeastward across southern and off the far southern SC coast. Primary convective line extends from east-central AL southwestward through the western FL Panhandle. Some modest moisture advection is still anticipated ahead of this line, but displacement from the primary ascent will keep mid-level temperatures warm, resulting poor lapse rates and scant buoyancy. Consequently, despite very robust kinematic fields, updraft strength and duration will remain limited. Damaging gusts will remain possible, with a low-probability tornado threat persisting as well, particularly near the warm front across southern GA. Some severe potential remains across the Carolinas tonight as well where limited destabilization is possible ahead of the line. Very strong vertical shear and intense winds just above the surface suggest some potential for damaging winds with the line. ..Mosier.. 01/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024/ ...Southeast through tonight... The primary midlevel shortwave trough/jet streak is beginning to turn northeastward over the Mid South, and will continue toward the OH Valley this afternoon. An associated surface cyclone will deepen/consolidate across IN by late afternoon, as a surface cold front surges eastward across MS/AL/GA. It appears the main height falls/forcing for ascent will progress northeastward and away from the narrow surface warm sector that is now confined to southern MS/southwest AL. There will be some northward spread of the warm sector with boundary-layer dewpoints into the 60s across southern AL/GA through the afternoon. However, the lack of strong/deep ascent in the presence of very strong deep-layer shear and poor midlevel lapse rates casts doubt on the depth/intensity of any warm sector convection this afternoon. A conditional threat for wind damage and a couple of tornadoes will continue given the very strong vertical shear/long hodographs, but confidence in sustained supercells along the north edge of the surface warm sector is low. Otherwise, slightly elevated convection will be most common today into TN/AL/GA to the north of the remnant cool wedge. A shallow forced band of convection may persist along the surface cold front across the Carolinas into tonight. Very strong vertical shear and intense winds not far above the surface suggest some potential for damaging winds and/or a couple of tornadoes with the line. Still, the relatively weak deeper-layer forcing for ascent (as a result of the main shortwave trough passing northwest of the Carolinas) and the modest thermodynamic profiles both suggest uncertainty in the coverage/magnitude of any severe threat. Read more View the full article

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN AL...SOUTHERN GA...NORTHERN FL...AND SOUTHERN SC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes remain possible this afternoon into tonight across southern Alabama, southern Georgia, northern Florida, and southern South Carolina. ...20Z Update... A shortwave trough continues to push quickly northeastward across the Mid MS Valley, with its accompanying intense jet streak stretching from OK/north TX through the TN Valley into the central Appalachians. Evolution of this shortwave northeastward has lead to increased displacement between the primary forcing for ascent and the warm sector, which currently only reaching as far north as southern AL and southern GA. Based on 19Z surface analysis, the 56 deg F isodrosotherm runs from southern MS northeastward into central AL and then back southeastward across southern and off the far southern SC coast. Primary convective line extends from east-central AL southwestward through the western FL Panhandle. Some modest moisture advection is still anticipated ahead of this line, but displacement from the primary ascent will keep mid-level temperatures warm, resulting poor lapse rates and scant buoyancy. Consequently, despite very robust kinematic fields, updraft strength and duration will remain limited. Damaging gusts will remain possible, with a low-probability tornado threat persisting as well, particularly near the warm front across southern GA. Some severe potential remains across the Carolinas tonight as well where limited destabilization is possible ahead of the line. Very strong vertical shear and intense winds just above the surface suggest some potential for damaging winds with the line. ..Mosier.. 01/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024/ ...Southeast through tonight... The primary midlevel shortwave trough/jet streak is beginning to turn northeastward over the Mid South, and will continue toward the OH Valley this afternoon. An associated surface cyclone will deepen/consolidate across IN by late afternoon, as a surface cold front surges eastward across MS/AL/GA. It appears the main height falls/forcing for ascent will progress northeastward and away from the narrow surface warm sector that is now confined to southern MS/southwest AL. There will be some northward spread of the warm sector with boundary-layer dewpoints into the 60s across southern AL/GA through the afternoon. However, the lack of strong/deep ascent in the presence of very strong deep-layer shear and poor midlevel lapse rates casts doubt on the depth/intensity of any warm sector convection this afternoon. A conditional threat for wind damage and a couple of tornadoes will continue given the very strong vertical shear/long hodographs, but confidence in sustained supercells along the north edge of the surface warm sector is low. Otherwise, slightly elevated convection will be most common today into TN/AL/GA to the north of the remnant cool wedge. A shallow forced band of convection may persist along the surface cold front across the Carolinas into tonight. Very strong vertical shear and intense winds not far above the surface suggest some potential for damaging winds and/or a couple of tornadoes with the line. Still, the relatively weak deeper-layer forcing for ascent (as a result of the main shortwave trough passing northwest of the Carolinas) and the modest thermodynamic profiles both suggest uncertainty in the coverage/magnitude of any severe threat. Read more View the full article

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN AL...SOUTHERN GA...NORTHERN FL...AND SOUTHERN SC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes remain possible this afternoon into tonight across southern Alabama, southern Georgia, northern Florida, and southern South Carolina. ...20Z Update... A shortwave trough continues to push quickly northeastward across the Mid MS Valley, with its accompanying intense jet streak stretching from OK/north TX through the TN Valley into the central Appalachians. Evolution of this shortwave northeastward has lead to increased displacement between the primary forcing for ascent and the warm sector, which currently only reaching as far north as southern AL and southern GA. Based on 19Z surface analysis, the 56 deg F isodrosotherm runs from southern MS northeastward into central AL and then back southeastward across southern and off the far southern SC coast. Primary convective line extends from east-central AL southwestward through the western FL Panhandle. Some modest moisture advection is still anticipated ahead of this line, but displacement from the primary ascent will keep mid-level temperatures warm, resulting poor lapse rates and scant buoyancy. Consequently, despite very robust kinematic fields, updraft strength and duration will remain limited. Damaging gusts will remain possible, with a low-probability tornado threat persisting as well, particularly near the warm front across southern GA. Some severe potential remains across the Carolinas tonight as well where limited destabilization is possible ahead of the line. Very strong vertical shear and intense winds just above the surface suggest some potential for damaging winds with the line. ..Mosier.. 01/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024/ ...Southeast through tonight... The primary midlevel shortwave trough/jet streak is beginning to turn northeastward over the Mid South, and will continue toward the OH Valley this afternoon. An associated surface cyclone will deepen/consolidate across IN by late afternoon, as a surface cold front surges eastward across MS/AL/GA. It appears the main height falls/forcing for ascent will progress northeastward and away from the narrow surface warm sector that is now confined to southern MS/southwest AL. There will be some northward spread of the warm sector with boundary-layer dewpoints into the 60s across southern AL/GA through the afternoon. However, the lack of strong/deep ascent in the presence of very strong deep-layer shear and poor midlevel lapse rates casts doubt on the depth/intensity of any warm sector convection this afternoon. A conditional threat for wind damage and a couple of tornadoes will continue given the very strong vertical shear/long hodographs, but confidence in sustained supercells along the north edge of the surface warm sector is low. Otherwise, slightly elevated convection will be most common today into TN/AL/GA to the north of the remnant cool wedge. A shallow forced band of convection may persist along the surface cold front across the Carolinas into tonight. Very strong vertical shear and intense winds not far above the surface suggest some potential for damaging winds and/or a couple of tornadoes with the line. Still, the relatively weak deeper-layer forcing for ascent (as a result of the main shortwave trough passing northwest of the Carolinas) and the modest thermodynamic profiles both suggest uncertainty in the coverage/magnitude of any severe threat. Read more View the full article

Wind Advisory issued January 12 at 2:04PM EST until January 13 at 1:00AM EST by NWSView the full article

Wind Advisory issued January 12 at 1:06PM EST until January 13 at 7:00AM EST by NWSView the full article

Wind Advisory issued January 12 at 1:06PM EST until January 13 at 7:00AM EST by NWSView the full article

Flood Warning issued January 12 at 12:58PM EST until January 13 at 4:42AM EST by NWSView the full article

Flood Warning issued January 12 at 12:56PM EST until January 17 at 2:12AM EST by NWSView the full article

Flood Warning issued January 12 at 12:53PM EST until further notice by NWSView the full article

Flood Warning issued January 12 at 12:50PM EST until further notice by NWSView the full article

Flood Warning issued January 12 at 12:49PM EST until January 14 at 5:12AM EST by NWSView the full article

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... Initial surge of a cold, continental airmass will likely have pushed through much of the CONUS early Saturday morning, with the associated cold front expected to extend from just off the East Coast through the central FL Peninsula. Modest low-level moisture will still be in place across central and southern FL, with isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms possible within the vicinity of this front continues southeastward throughout the day. Generally anafrontal character to this front should keep thunderstorms elevated. This elevated character coupled with poor lapse rates should limit the severe potential, despite fairly robust deep-layer vertical shear. Thunderstorms are not expected elsewhere across the CONUS as an Arctic airmass surges southward, reinforcing the already cold and dry airmass in place. ..Mosier.. 01/12/2024 Read more View the full article