NorthGeorgiaWX

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... An arctic airmass on Monday will preclude thunderstorm activity for most of the country. The exception will be across parts of the Florida Peninsula. Surface dewpoints in the 60s ahead of a southward-sagging cold front will be in place over central/southern FL. Warm midlevel temperatures through much of the daytime hours will limit thunderstorm activity via poor lapse rates and capping. However, warm advection ahead of the front will continue through the nighttime hours, while a surface low begins to deepen off the northeast FL, GA and SC coasts late in the period. Modest midlevel cooling also will occur overnight, and at least minor ascent associated with a weak shortwave impulse may be sufficient for a few thunderstorms during the evening and nighttime hours. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/14/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms will be low across most of the CONUS, but a flash or two of lightning can not be ruled out over parts of south Florida and parts of southern New England. ...Discussion... Cold, stable conditions are expected to encompass most of the CONUS through the day1 period. Although offshore flow is now dominant, very steep low-level lapse rates will spread across southern New England as the Polar Jet sags south of the region. Latest model guidance suggests surface-3km values will exceed 8 C/km. Forecast soundings exhibit weak surface-based buoyancy with upwards of 100 J/kg by 20-22z across southeast New England. This profile should support weak convection and a few flashes of lightning can not be ruled out. Across south Florida, weak buoyancy will linger through 18z across this region. Forecast soundings suggest parcels lifted near 850mb will yield around 500 J/kg MUCAPE. Given the weak warm advection, a few elevated showers may attain heights necessary for lightning discharge. Even so, this activity should remain quite isolated. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 01/14/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms will be low across most of the CONUS, but a flash or two of lightning can not be ruled out over parts of south Florida and parts of southern New England. ...Discussion... Cold, stable conditions are expected to encompass most of the CONUS through the day1 period. Although offshore flow is now dominant, very steep low-level lapse rates will spread across southern New England as the Polar Jet sags south of the region. Latest model guidance suggests surface-3km values will exceed 8 C/km. Forecast soundings exhibit weak surface-based buoyancy with upwards of 100 J/kg by 20-22z across southeast New England. This profile should support weak convection and a few flashes of lightning can not be ruled out. Across south Florida, weak buoyancy will linger through 18z across this region. Forecast soundings suggest parcels lifted near 850mb will yield around 500 J/kg MUCAPE. Given the weak warm advection, a few elevated showers may attain heights necessary for lightning discharge. Even so, this activity should remain quite isolated. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 01/14/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An expansive arctic air mass and related cold surface temperatures will limit fire-weather concerns across the CONUS on D2/Monday. ..Weinman.. 01/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Immediately ahead of a stalled cold front across the southern High Plains, enhanced downslope flow and a modest surface pressure gradient will contribute to locally dry/breezy conditions over far southeast NM into the TX Trans-Pecos. While 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds and around 15 percent RH could favor locally elevated fire-weather conditions, the overlap of dry/breezy conditions appears too localized/marginal for Elevated highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 01/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

Flood Warning issued January 13 at 8:59PM EST until January 16 at 11:00AM EST by NWSView the full article

Flood Warning issued January 13 at 8:25PM EST until January 15 at 4:00PM EST by NWSView the full article

Flood Warning issued January 13 at 8:17PM EST until January 18 at 8:31PM EST by NWSView the full article

Flood Warning issued January 13 at 8:14PM EST until January 17 at 1:00AM EST by NWSView the full article

Flood Warning issued January 13 at 8:11PM EST until January 15 at 11:54PM EST by NWSView the full article

Winter Storm Watch issued January 13 at 7:53PM EST until January 16 at 7:00AM EST by NWSView the full article

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0631 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast tonight. ...01z Update... Aside from a rogue flash of lightning with weak convection off of Lake Erie, the probability for thunderstorms across the CONUS is negligible. Surface front has progressed off the southern tip of FL and any convection of note should be associated with the boundary offshore. ..Darrow.. 01/14/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0631 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast tonight. ...01z Update... Aside from a rogue flash of lightning with weak convection off of Lake Erie, the probability for thunderstorms across the CONUS is negligible. Surface front has progressed off the southern tip of FL and any convection of note should be associated with the boundary offshore. ..Darrow.. 01/14/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0631 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast tonight. ...01z Update... Aside from a rogue flash of lightning with weak convection off of Lake Erie, the probability for thunderstorms across the CONUS is negligible. Surface front has progressed off the southern tip of FL and any convection of note should be associated with the boundary offshore. ..Darrow.. 01/14/2024 Read more View the full article

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Jan 14 00:01:02 UTC 2024.View the full article

MD 0061 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR NORTHWESTERN OREGON AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON Mesoscale Discussion 0061 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Areas affected...Northwestern Oregon and far southeastern Washington Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 132005Z - 140000Z SUMMARY...Periods of heavy snow with snowfall rates between 1-2 in/hour will continue into the mid/late afternoon hours. Freezing rain remains probable through the Willamette Valley. DISCUSSION...Bands of moderate to heavy precipitation continue to overspread the Pacific Northwest ahead of an approaching mid-level wave. So far, much of this activity has been driven by warm advection in the 850-700 mb layer, but some uptick in precip coverage and intensity appears likely as lift associated with the vorticity maximum and attendant mid-level jet overspreads the region. The 18z SLE sounding sampled a deep saturated layer from the surface to around 450 mb with a somewhat shallow (~100 mb deep) 1-2 C warm nose centered at about 850 mb/3 kft. More recent KRTX CC imagery indicates that this warm nose remains in place. Locations above roughly 3 kft should continue to see moderate to heavy snowfall through the mid/late afternoon with snowfall rates between 1-2 in/hour possible. The shallow sub-freezing layer below ~3 kft will support a continuation of freezing rain for some locations - primarily through the Willamette Valley. However, localized fluctuations in the shallow warm layer may promote variation in precipitation types between freezing rain, snow, and sleet. ..Moore.. 01/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PDT...MFR...SEW...PQR... LAT...LON 44192375 44442423 44642418 46032410 46212399 46392363 46352107 46182067 45762021 45001991 44212004 43732038 43532087 43462157 43772338 44192375 Read more View the full article

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z A cold, arctic airmass has spread across most of the CONUS which has mitigated fire weather concerns for most. The only exception will be across Far West Texas where relatively warm conditions will persist in a region which has been dry for a few weeks. The most likely days for some dry and breezy conditions across Far West Texas will be Wednesday and Thursday when lee troughing is expected to occur over the central High Plains. Beyond Thursday, reinforcing arctic high pressure is expected to build into the Plains again and weaken winds across the region. Despite the expectation for some dry and breezy conditions, fuels are not that favorable and relative humidity is not expected to be overly dry. Therefore, no critical fire weather probabilities are warranted at this time. ..Bentley.. 01/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z A cold, arctic airmass has spread across most of the CONUS which has mitigated fire weather concerns for most. The only exception will be across Far West Texas where relatively warm conditions will persist in a region which has been dry for a few weeks. The most likely days for some dry and breezy conditions across Far West Texas will be Wednesday and Thursday when lee troughing is expected to occur over the central High Plains. Beyond Thursday, reinforcing arctic high pressure is expected to build into the Plains again and weaken winds across the region. Despite the expectation for some dry and breezy conditions, fuels are not that favorable and relative humidity is not expected to be overly dry. Therefore, no critical fire weather probabilities are warranted at this time. ..Bentley.. 01/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z A cold, arctic airmass has spread across most of the CONUS which has mitigated fire weather concerns for most. The only exception will be across Far West Texas where relatively warm conditions will persist in a region which has been dry for a few weeks. The most likely days for some dry and breezy conditions across Far West Texas will be Wednesday and Thursday when lee troughing is expected to occur over the central High Plains. Beyond Thursday, reinforcing arctic high pressure is expected to build into the Plains again and weaken winds across the region. Despite the expectation for some dry and breezy conditions, fuels are not that favorable and relative humidity is not expected to be overly dry. Therefore, no critical fire weather probabilities are warranted at this time. ..Bentley.. 01/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...20Z Update... Minor changes have been made to the general thunderstorm area across parts of south FL and the Keys. Isolated convection still appears possible later tonight into early Sunday morning. ..Gleason.. 01/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0957 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong surface cyclone over the Great Lakes will continue to lift to the northeast into eastern Canada over the next 24 hours. A trailing cold front draped across the western Atlantic into the southern Florida Peninsula will gradually shift east/southeast through the day. Thunderstorm potential will be focused along and behind this front for today and tonight. ...Southern Florida... A narrow band of convection has been ongoing along the cold front this morning as it migrates south. While a few deeper cells have been observed from regional radars, these stronger pulses have been relatively short-lived. Despite 40-50 knot mid-level flow, a combination of poor lapse rates near 700-600 mb and decreasing forcing for ascent have limited storm longevity/intensity thus far and should continue to be detrimental to severe potential through the remainder of the afternoon. A second round of isolated showers/weak thunderstorms is anticipated late tonight into early Sunday morning as weak ascent ahead of an approaching mid-level disturbance overspreads meager (500 J/kg MUCAPE or less) post-frontal buoyancy rooted above the frontal inversion. Read more View the full article

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...20Z Update... Minor changes have been made to the general thunderstorm area across parts of south FL and the Keys. Isolated convection still appears possible later tonight into early Sunday morning. ..Gleason.. 01/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0957 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong surface cyclone over the Great Lakes will continue to lift to the northeast into eastern Canada over the next 24 hours. A trailing cold front draped across the western Atlantic into the southern Florida Peninsula will gradually shift east/southeast through the day. Thunderstorm potential will be focused along and behind this front for today and tonight. ...Southern Florida... A narrow band of convection has been ongoing along the cold front this morning as it migrates south. While a few deeper cells have been observed from regional radars, these stronger pulses have been relatively short-lived. Despite 40-50 knot mid-level flow, a combination of poor lapse rates near 700-600 mb and decreasing forcing for ascent have limited storm longevity/intensity thus far and should continue to be detrimental to severe potential through the remainder of the afternoon. A second round of isolated showers/weak thunderstorms is anticipated late tonight into early Sunday morning as weak ascent ahead of an approaching mid-level disturbance overspreads meager (500 J/kg MUCAPE or less) post-frontal buoyancy rooted above the frontal inversion. Read more View the full article

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...20Z Update... Minor changes have been made to the general thunderstorm area across parts of south FL and the Keys. Isolated convection still appears possible later tonight into early Sunday morning. ..Gleason.. 01/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0957 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong surface cyclone over the Great Lakes will continue to lift to the northeast into eastern Canada over the next 24 hours. A trailing cold front draped across the western Atlantic into the southern Florida Peninsula will gradually shift east/southeast through the day. Thunderstorm potential will be focused along and behind this front for today and tonight. ...Southern Florida... A narrow band of convection has been ongoing along the cold front this morning as it migrates south. While a few deeper cells have been observed from regional radars, these stronger pulses have been relatively short-lived. Despite 40-50 knot mid-level flow, a combination of poor lapse rates near 700-600 mb and decreasing forcing for ascent have limited storm longevity/intensity thus far and should continue to be detrimental to severe potential through the remainder of the afternoon. A second round of isolated showers/weak thunderstorms is anticipated late tonight into early Sunday morning as weak ascent ahead of an approaching mid-level disturbance overspreads meager (500 J/kg MUCAPE or less) post-frontal buoyancy rooted above the frontal inversion. Read more View the full article

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...20Z Update... Minor changes have been made to the general thunderstorm area across parts of south FL and the Keys. Isolated convection still appears possible later tonight into early Sunday morning. ..Gleason.. 01/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0957 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong surface cyclone over the Great Lakes will continue to lift to the northeast into eastern Canada over the next 24 hours. A trailing cold front draped across the western Atlantic into the southern Florida Peninsula will gradually shift east/southeast through the day. Thunderstorm potential will be focused along and behind this front for today and tonight. ...Southern Florida... A narrow band of convection has been ongoing along the cold front this morning as it migrates south. While a few deeper cells have been observed from regional radars, these stronger pulses have been relatively short-lived. Despite 40-50 knot mid-level flow, a combination of poor lapse rates near 700-600 mb and decreasing forcing for ascent have limited storm longevity/intensity thus far and should continue to be detrimental to severe potential through the remainder of the afternoon. A second round of isolated showers/weak thunderstorms is anticipated late tonight into early Sunday morning as weak ascent ahead of an approaching mid-level disturbance overspreads meager (500 J/kg MUCAPE or less) post-frontal buoyancy rooted above the frontal inversion. Read more View the full article

Frost Advisory issued January 13 at 2:36PM EST until January 14 at 8:00AM EST by NWSView the full article

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1252 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A cold front will stall over the TX Trans-Pecos vicinity on Sunday morning, while a belt of midlevel westerly flow strengthens across the southern Rockies. Immediately ahead of the front, a modest pressure gradient will favor a localized area of 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds from far southeast NM into the Trans-Pecos. At the same time, diurnal heating and downslope flow will contribute to 15-20 percent RH. While locally elevated conditions are possible here, the overlap of dry/breezy conditions appears too localized for Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article