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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Sun Apr 07 2024 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 04/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0120 AM CDT Sun Apr 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong surface low across central Nebraska will weaken as it moves east today. Despite the weakening, a strong pressure gradient is expected across much of the Plains and into the southern High Plains. In addition, a deeply mixed atmosphere is expected beneath strong mid-level flow. Therefore, 20 to 25 mph winds are expected with relative humidity in the single digits. An extended period of dry and windy conditions in the southern High Plains has dried fuels substantially in this region. As a result, large fires will be possible today. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sun Apr 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A PORTION OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY CENTERED FROM THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL TO WESTERN PARTS OF KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong/isolated severe thunderstorms are possible during the late afternoon to mid-evening in the lower/mid Mississippi Valley. ...Mid/lower Mississippi Valley area... While dewpoints remain in the 30s and 40s across the SLGT risk area late this morning, low-level moisture advection is ongoing ahead of the advancing cold front, with low to mid 60s dewpoints now observed across central and southern portions of Arkansas. As the front advances eastward, and the more favorable low-level theta-e airmass continues advecting northward, filtered heating will support modest destabilization, with afternoon mixed-layer CAPE values rising into the 500 to 1000 J/kg range. Stronger ascent will remain just north of the SLGT risk area, as a lobe of vorticity rotating through cyclonic southwesterly flow aloft on the southeastern side of closed upper low over Nebraska crosses Illinois/Indiana this afternoon. Still, scattered convective development is expected to begin by mid to late afternoon across the Mid Mississippi Valley, and southward into the Delta region, in focused low-level ascent near the cold front. While modest CAPE will likely limit severe potential, the deep-layer wind field (veering and increasing favorably with height across the pre-frontal warm sector) will likely augment a few of the stronger updrafts, suggesting that a few storms will become capable of producing hail and/or damaging winds. A tornado or two will also be possible, with hodographs indicating favorable helicity with any right-moving supercell. Severe potential should peak through late afternoon, and then gradually diminish this evening as the boundary layer cools, and the cold front weakens with time. ...Parts of central/southeastern Iowa and vicinity... As the weakening/vertically stacked low shifts northeastward out of Nebraska and across northwestern Iowa this afternoon, continued daytime heating of a marginally moist (40s dewpoints) boundary layer, residing beneath rather steep mid-level lapse rates will continue to facilitate weak destabilization. Thunderstorms have developed late this morning across portions of northern and central Illinois, and across north-central Iowa and into adjacent southern Minnesota. By mid afternoon, new convective development is expected along the occluded front currently moving northeastward across the Nebraska/Iowa border/Mid-Missouri Valley at this time, as it shifts into central and southeastern Iowa. While the evolving, low-topped storms should remain largely sub-severe, a strong to severe wind gust or two, and even a brief tornado, will be possible, through late afternoon/early evening. ..Goss/Gleason.. 04/07/2024 Read more View the full article

Flood Warning issued April 7 at 9:50AM EDT by NWS Jacksonville FLView the full article

No watches are valid as of Sun Apr 7 02:02:02 UTC 2024.View the full article

No watches are valid as of Sun Apr 7 02:02:02 UTC 2024.View the full article

WW 0089 Status Updates STATUS REPORT ON WW 89 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW PNC TO 25 ENE HUT TO 15 S CNK TO 35 N CNK TO 15 NNW GRI. ..LYONS..04/06/24 ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...OAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 89 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC015-017-019-027-029-035-041-049-061-073-079-111-115-117-127- 143-149-157-161-169-173-191-197-201-070040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTLER CHASE CHAUTAUQUA CLAY CLOUD COWLEY DICKINSON ELK GEARY GREENWOOD HARVEY LYON MARION MARSHALL MORRIS OTTAWA POTTAWATOMIE REPUBLIC RILEY SALINE SEDGWICK SUMNER WABAUNSEE WASHINGTON NEC023-067-095-109-151-159-070040- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTLER GAGE JEFFERSON LANCASTER SALINE SEWARD Read more View the full article

WW 88 SEVERE TSTM KS NE 061915Z - 070100Z URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 88 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 215 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Kansas Western and Central Nebraska * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 215 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...An arcing band of thunderstorms is expected to initially intensify across southwest/west-central Nebraska, and into central Nebraska and north-central Kansas by late afternoon. Some severe hail is possible, and perhaps a brief tornado risk, but severe-caliber wind gusts/wind damage should be the primary impact. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 65 miles north northwest of Imperial NE to 40 miles southeast of Hastings NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector 20040. ...Guyer Read more View the full article

WW 0089 Status Updates STATUS REPORT ON WW 89 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW PNC TO 25 ENE HUT TO 15 S CNK TO 35 N CNK TO 15 NNW GRI. ..LYONS..04/06/24 ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...OAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 89 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC015-017-019-027-029-035-041-049-061-073-079-111-115-117-127- 143-149-157-161-169-173-191-197-201-070040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTLER CHASE CHAUTAUQUA CLAY CLOUD COWLEY DICKINSON ELK GEARY GREENWOOD HARVEY LYON MARION MARSHALL MORRIS OTTAWA POTTAWATOMIE REPUBLIC RILEY SALINE SEDGWICK SUMNER WABAUNSEE WASHINGTON NEC023-067-095-109-151-159-070040- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTLER GAGE JEFFERSON LANCASTER SALINE SEWARD Read more View the full article

WW 88 SEVERE TSTM KS NE 061915Z - 070100Z URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 88 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 215 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Kansas Western and Central Nebraska * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 215 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...An arcing band of thunderstorms is expected to initially intensify across southwest/west-central Nebraska, and into central Nebraska and north-central Kansas by late afternoon. Some severe hail is possible, and perhaps a brief tornado risk, but severe-caliber wind gusts/wind damage should be the primary impact. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 65 miles north northwest of Imperial NE to 40 miles southeast of Hastings NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector 20040. ...Guyer Read more View the full article

WW 89 SEVERE TSTM KS NE 062005Z - 070200Z URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 89 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 305 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and Eastern Kansas Southeast Nebraska * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 305 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to further develop and intensify across north-central/east-central Kansas through mid-afternoon, and move into other parts of eastern/southeast Kansas and southeast Nebraska by late afternoon and early evening. Severe-caliber wind gusts should be the most common risk, but some hail is possible and a brief tornado could also occur, even with modest moisture. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles east northeast of Grand Island NE to 55 miles southeast of Wichita KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 88... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 22040. ...Guyer Read more View the full article

WW 89 SEVERE TSTM KS NE 062005Z - 070200Z URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 89 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 305 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and Eastern Kansas Southeast Nebraska * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 305 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to further develop and intensify across north-central/east-central Kansas through mid-afternoon, and move into other parts of eastern/southeast Kansas and southeast Nebraska by late afternoon and early evening. Severe-caliber wind gusts should be the most common risk, but some hail is possible and a brief tornado could also occur, even with modest moisture. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles east northeast of Grand Island NE to 55 miles southeast of Wichita KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 88... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 22040. ...Guyer Read more View the full article

Frost Advisory issued April 6 at 7:38PM EDT until April 7 at 9:00AM EDT by NWS Peachtree City GAView the full article

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Apr 6 23:30:06 UTC 2024.View the full article

WW 0088 Status Updates STATUS REPORT ON WW 88 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW CNK TO 40 SE HSI TO 10 SSE GRI TO 15 NW BUB. ..LYONS..04/06/24 ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 88 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC035-059-075-077-079-081-093-121-125-143-163-169-175-185- 070040- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY FILLMORE GRANT GREELEY HALL HAMILTON HOWARD MERRICK NANCE POLK SHERMAN THAYER VALLEY YORK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more View the full article

WW 0088 Status Updates STATUS REPORT ON WW 88 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW CNK TO 40 SE HSI TO 10 SSE GRI TO 15 NW BUB. ..LYONS..04/06/24 ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 88 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC035-059-075-077-079-081-093-121-125-143-163-169-175-185- 070040- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY FILLMORE GRANT GREELEY HALL HAMILTON HOWARD MERRICK NANCE POLK SHERMAN THAYER VALLEY YORK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more View the full article

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms remain possible across parts of the central into southern Plains this afternoon and early evening. Scattered severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are the primary risks with the stronger storms, but a couple of tornadoes may also occur. ...20Z Update... A band of low-topped convection currently arcs from the NE Panhandle southeastward towards south-central NE and north-central KS. This activity is occurring along/near a warm front, but with limited low-level moisture. Strong low/mid-level flow associated with a deep cyclone over the central High Plains should support continued convective organization, with the primary threat remaining severe wind gusts up to 75 mph. See Mesoscale Discussion 377 for more details on the near-term severe threat across this area. Additional thunderstorm development appears likely this afternoon southward along an eastward-mixing dryline from parts of north-central to south-central KS, and eventually central OK. Some severe wind/hail risk will exist with any robust convection that can be sustained, although shallow low-level moisture continues to be a potentially limiting factor. Still, the better large-scale ascent/forcing, and greater thunderstorm coverage, should remain focused across KS where the Slight Risk is delineated. Finally, a small westward expansion has been made to the Marginal Risk across central OK. Latest visible satellite and radar trends show attempts at convection occurring along the dryline across north-central OK. Isolated thunderstorms should eventually develop while posing a risk for marginally severe hail and strong to severe wind gusts. See Mesoscale Discussion 378 for additional information on the severe potential across OK this afternoon. ..Gleason.. 04/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024/ ...Central/Southern Plains... An increasingly negative-tilt mid/upper-level trough will overspread the High Plains, with the upper jet exit region influencing the central Plains as surface cyclogenesis occurs across northeast Colorado/northwest Kansas into Nebraska through this evening. To the south of the surface cyclone, a Pacific cold front will gradually overtake a preceding dryline across the south-central Plains into this evening. Modest early season low-level moisture (evident in regional 12z soundings such as Norman/OUN, Fort Worth/FWD, Dodge City/DDC, and North Platte/LBF) is expected to somewhat limit the overall magnitude of today's severe risk, with a spatially narrow corridor of warm-sector dewpoints generally limited to the 40s F across Nebraska, some low/mid 50s F across Kansas, upper 50s F across Oklahoma, and low 60s F relegated to north/central Texas, as strong northward moist advection somewhat compensates for ample diurnal mixing. Even with low-level moisture/buoyancy limitations, very strong large-scale ascent attendant to the ejecting upper-level trough will aid in initial storm development early this afternoon near the surface low/triple point vicinity across far northeast Colorado, far northwest Kansas into western/central Nebraska, as well as other parts of northern/central Kansas by mid/late afternoon. A few low-topped supercells may occur before a transition to more linear modes this evening. Storms that can acquire supercell characteristics would yield the greatest threat for isolated large hail (1.0-1.5 inch diameter). While the tornado threat may tend to be limited by sparse low-level moisture, sufficient low-level shear/SRH could support at least a brief tornado threat with any stronger sustained supercell and/or within a transitioning linear mode, especially in closer proximity to the surface low over west-central/southern Nebraska and far northern Kansas. It appears the predominant risk will be severe gusts in the 60-80 mph range owing to steep 0-2 km lapse rates, very strong boundary-layer flow, and a more linear mode over time. While the primary severe risk is expected across parts of Nebraska and northern Kansas, isolated severe potential will also exist in vicinity of the dryline/Pacific front as it extends southward from southern Kansas into central Oklahoma around peak heating. While boundary layer moisture will be modest, isolated/widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected toward/after sunset as far south as I-40 in Oklahoma, and possibly as far south as the Red River vicinity. That said, some forecast soundings (especially 12z NAM but also HRRR) reflect some lingering mid-level inhibition/subsidence that does not fully resolve early this evening, especially with southward extent, which likely has implications for the isolated nature of the development as well as a less-than-typical early April potential for large hail. A few storms could even develop late tonight in vicinity of the Pacific front across central Texas toward the Hill Country. Read more View the full article

Frost Advisory issued April 6 at 2:20PM EDT until April 7 at 9:00AM EDT by NWS Greenville-Spartanburg SCView the full article

Flood Warning issued April 6 at 8:54AM EDT by NWS Jacksonville FLView the full article

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z An active pattern will continue to support multiple periods of increased fire weather potential across the southern High Plains through the extended period. The best potential for Critical fire weather conditions will be on D3 - Sunday across the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains... A belt of strong deep-layer westerly flow will persist across the southern High Plains on D3 - Sunday, with continued downslope drying amid a tight surface pressure gradient. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are expected across portions of far western and southwestern Texas into eastern New Mexico. The best overlap of receptive fuels with Critical meteorological conditions is expected from east-central New Mexico into the southern Texas Panhandle. 70 percent probabilities were maintained with this outlook with a broader 40 percent delineation where winds are expected to be lighter but relative humidity may drop as low as 10 percent. Elevated to critical conditions could redevelop across the southern High Plains on Days 4-5/Monday-Tuesday -- ahead of another low-latitude trough over the West. 40-percent Critical probabilities are in place for this, though confidence in the development of any more than locally critical conditions is too low for higher probabilities at this time. ..Thornton.. 04/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. Though no Extremely Critical areas were added with this outlook, hi-res guidance from the HREF continues to show around 10-30% probability of Extremely Critical conditions across the northern Texas Panhandle/Oklahoma Panhandle into far southeastern Colorado. Deterministic models continue to show significant spread in wind speeds and minimum relative humidity but it seems likely that localized Extremely Critical conditions will be possible, mainly across the northern Texas Panhandle/Oklahoma Panhandle. Should confidence increase in more widespread conditions, an Extremely Critical may be needed with the upcoming transition to D1. ..Thornton.. 04/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... The second of a two-day fire weather event is anticipated on Saturday across southern NM/far west TX to southeast CO and southwest KS. Robust lee cyclogenesis is anticipated across the central High Plains by 18 UTC Saturday as a progressive upper-level wave (currently moving onto the CA coast) overspreads the region. The surface low is forecast to shift east into the Plains through the afternoon with a trailing surface trough/Pacific front pushing east across the southern High Plains by late morning. As this occurs, west/northwesterly post-frontal winds will advect a dry air mass off the central/southern Rockies into the High Plains. Downslope warming/drying of this air mass will promote widespread RH reductions into the 10-20% range across NM, western TX, and portions of OK/CO/KS. Latest high-res ensemble guidance shows reasonably high confidence in sub-15% RH within the critical risk area, and the typically drier/windier solutions hint that single-digit RH minimums are possible. Winds are expected to increase to 20-25 mph (gusting to 40-50 mph) by early afternoon amid a strengthening surface pressure gradient and deepening boundary-layer mixing. Sustained winds between 30-35 mph winds possible under the mid-level jet maximum, which should be located broadly across the northern TX and OK Panhandles. This region will see the highest potential for extremely critical fire weather conditions. Consideration was given to introducing an Extremely Critical risk area, but somewhat low ensemble consensus for sustained 30+ mph winds (only 10-30% probability) precluded higher risk headlines. These low probabilities may be associated with spread regarding the placement and magnitude of the surface low (up to a 4 mb difference between some solutions). These details should become better resolved heading into the Day-1 time frame. Regardless, fuels across the region should be very receptive after warm, dry, and windy conditions on Friday, which should support the high-end Critical fire weather risk on Saturday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Discussion... No changes appear necessary to the ongoing outlook at this time. ..Goss.. 04/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024/ ...Northern Rockies... Associated with the exit region of the polar jet related to the Western U.S. upper trough, forcing for ascent and modest moisture/buoyancy will lead to at least widely scattered thunderstorms by mid/late afternoon. These storms should generally focus across eastern Idaho and far western Montana this afternoon, and then additional parts of western/southern Montana and Wyoming into this evening. Steep lapse rates and sufficient buoyancy could allow for some stronger storms capable of gusty winds/hail, but organized/sustained severe thunderstorms are not currently expected. ...Coastal Southern California... Isolated low-topped thunderstorms will remain a possibility within the post-frontal environment beneath the mid/upper-level trough, where mid-level temperatures (500 mb) are generally between -25C to -30C. While a couple of east/southeastward-moving stronger storms could materialize through the afternoon near far southern California coastal areas, severe thunderstorms are unlikely given the limited boundary layer moisture and buoyancy (generally a couple hundred J/kg MUCAPE at most). Read more View the full article

Frost Advisory issued April 5 at 2:52PM EDT until April 6 at 9:00AM EDT by NWS Peachtree City GAView the full article

Freeze Warning issued April 5 at 2:52PM EDT until April 6 at 9:00AM EDT by NWS Peachtree City GAView the full article

Freeze Warning issued April 5 at 2:41PM EDT until April 6 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Greenville-Spartanburg SCView the full article

Frost Advisory issued April 5 at 2:41PM EDT until April 6 at 9:00AM EDT by NWS Greenville-Spartanburg SCView the full article