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MD 0326 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 66... FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN TEXAS Mesoscale Discussion 0326 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0526 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Areas affected...portions of western Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 66... Valid 012226Z - 020000Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 66 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 66. Very large hail and hurricane-force gusts will remain possible with the strongest storms through evening, and a tornado cannot be ruled out. Storms may develop farther south across southwestern into central TX and local WW extensions or new watches may eventually become necessary. DISCUSSION...Semi-discrete storms, including supercells, have been progressing eastward across portions of northwestern TX with a history of up to baseball sized hail and near 90 mph measured gusts. Diurnal heating ahead of the ongoing line of storms has allowed for surface temperatures to warm to over 80 F amid upper 60s F dewpoints, minimizing CINH and boosting MLCAPE to 2000 J/kg (per 22Z mesoanalysis). Buoyancy is modest, but more than adequate in supporting continued significant-severe weather given the presence of 80+ kts of effective bulk shear (driven by a 30+ kt low-level jet overspread by over 80 kts of 500 mb southwesterly flow). As such, the more sustained supercell structures may continue to produce severe hail in the 2-3 inch diameter range, along with severe gusts peaking between 75-90 mph. The best chance for significant-severe storms will be over northwestern into north-central TX, where deep-layer ascent is the strongest. Additionally, regional VADs and 22Z mesoanalysis does show some slight low-level hodograph curvature, suggesting that a tornado cannot be ruled out as well. Farther south, storms are attempting to develop closer to the Rio Grande. However, overall forcing for ascent is weaker, raising questions pertaining to storm coverage. Still, given the strong deep-layer shear present, any storms that can mature and become sustained will present a severe hail/wind risk. A local spatial extension of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 66 may be needed if confidence in convective coverage increases farther south into southern and central TX. ..Squitieri.. 04/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 29080091 29730135 30990084 31810003 32809879 32969812 32999740 32939686 32789678 32429708 32059749 31029868 30130005 29080091 Read more View the full article

MD 0327 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 64...67... FOR EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI Mesoscale Discussion 0327 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0528 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Areas affected...eastern Kansas and western/central Missouri Concerning...Tornado Watch 64...67... Valid 012228Z - 020000Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 64, 67 continues. SUMMARY...Numerous supercells are expected this evening with large to very large hail likely. The tornado threat will increase near and after sunset. DISCUSSION...A mature supercell has developed in southeast Kansas with hail up to golf ball sized reported. Additional supercells have started to develop along the warm front in central Missouri. MLCAPE of 1200 to 1500 J/kg and effective shear in excess of 70 knots (per SGF VWP) will support large to very large hail with any storms. SPC mesoanalysis shows STP around 1 to 1.5 at 22Z and the WoFs suggest STP around 3 by 00Z as the low-level jet strengthens. Therefore, expect a gradual increase in tornado intensity through the evening. ..Bentley.. 04/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 37039660 38179597 39009535 39619438 39499287 39159138 38559120 38149156 37769261 37109369 36979429 37039660 Read more View the full article

WW 0067 Status Updates STATUS REPORT ON WW 67 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WEINMAN..04/01/24 ATTN...WFO...EAX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 67 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC005-011-021-037-043-091-103-107-121-209-012240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATCHISON BOURBON CHEROKEE CRAWFORD DONIPHAN JOHNSON LEAVENWORTH LINN MIAMI WYANDOTTE MOC003-009-011-013-015-021-025-029-033-037-039-041-043-047-049- 053-057-059-061-063-075-077-079-081-083-085-087-089-095-097-101- 107-109-115-117-119-121-131-141-145-147-159-165-167-175-177-185- 195-209-213-217-227-012240- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREW BARRY BARTON BATES BENTON BUCHANAN CALDWELL CAMDEN CARROLL CASS CEDAR CHARITON CHRISTIAN CLAY CLINTON COOPER DADE DALLAS DAVIESS DEKALB GENTRY Read more View the full article

WW 0067 Status Updates STATUS REPORT ON WW 67 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WEINMAN..04/01/24 ATTN...WFO...EAX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 67 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC005-011-021-037-043-091-103-107-121-209-012240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATCHISON BOURBON CHEROKEE CRAWFORD DONIPHAN JOHNSON LEAVENWORTH LINN MIAMI WYANDOTTE MOC003-009-011-013-015-021-025-029-033-037-039-041-043-047-049- 053-057-059-061-063-075-077-079-081-083-085-087-089-095-097-101- 107-109-115-117-119-121-131-141-145-147-159-165-167-175-177-185- 195-209-213-217-227-012240- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREW BARRY BARTON BATES BENTON BUCHANAN CALDWELL CAMDEN CARROLL CASS CEDAR CHARITON CHRISTIAN CLAY CLINTON COOPER DADE DALLAS DAVIESS DEKALB GENTRY Read more View the full article

WW 0066 Status Updates STATUS REPORT ON WW 66 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WEINMAN..04/01/24 ATTN...WFO...SJT...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 66 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC049-059-081-083-093-095-133-143-151-207-221-235-253-353-363- 367-399-417-429-431-441-447-451-012240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CALLAHAN COKE COLEMAN COMANCHE CONCHO EASTLAND ERATH FISHER HASKELL HOOD IRION JONES NOLAN PALO PINTO PARKER RUNNELS SHACKELFORD STEPHENS STERLING TAYLOR THROCKMORTON TOM GREEN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more View the full article

WW 0066 Status Updates STATUS REPORT ON WW 66 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WEINMAN..04/01/24 ATTN...WFO...SJT...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 66 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC049-059-081-083-093-095-133-143-151-207-221-235-253-353-363- 367-399-417-429-431-441-447-451-012240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CALLAHAN COKE COLEMAN COMANCHE CONCHO EASTLAND ERATH FISHER HASKELL HOOD IRION JONES NOLAN PALO PINTO PARKER RUNNELS SHACKELFORD STEPHENS STERLING TAYLOR THROCKMORTON TOM GREEN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more View the full article

WW 0068 Status Updates STATUS REPORT ON WW 32 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW HUM TO 30 ESE MCB TO 40 E PIB TO 40 SE MEI. ..KERR..03/08/24 ATTN...WFO...MOB...LCH...LIX...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 32 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC003-025-097-129-090040- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN CLARKE MOBILE WASHINGTON LAC051-071-087-089-093-095-103-117-090040- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE JEFFERSON ORLEANS ST. BERNARD ST. CHARLES ST. JAMES ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST ST. TAMMANY WASHINGTON MSC035-039-041-045-047-059-109-111-131-090040- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FORREST GEORGE GREENE Read more View the full article

WW 0068 Status Updates STATUS REPORT ON WW 32 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW HUM TO 30 ESE MCB TO 40 E PIB TO 40 SE MEI. ..KERR..03/08/24 ATTN...WFO...MOB...LCH...LIX...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 32 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC003-025-097-129-090040- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN CLARKE MOBILE WASHINGTON LAC051-071-087-089-093-095-103-117-090040- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE JEFFERSON ORLEANS ST. BERNARD ST. CHARLES ST. JAMES ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST ST. TAMMANY WASHINGTON MSC035-039-041-045-047-059-109-111-131-090040- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FORREST GEORGE GREENE Read more View the full article

WW 68 TORNADO IL MO 012150Z - 020500Z URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 68 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 450 PM CDT Mon Apr 1 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central Illinois Eastern Missouri * Effective this Monday afternoon from 450 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will intensify this afternoon and evening, building eastward along a boundary across central Missouri/Illinois. Supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are possible. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles southwest of Jefferson City MO to 35 miles south of Danville IL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 64...WW 65...WW 66...WW 67... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25030. ...Hart Read more View the full article

WW 68 TORNADO IL MO 012150Z - 020500Z URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 68 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 450 PM CDT Mon Apr 1 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central Illinois Eastern Missouri * Effective this Monday afternoon from 450 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will intensify this afternoon and evening, building eastward along a boundary across central Missouri/Illinois. Supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are possible. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles southwest of Jefferson City MO to 35 miles south of Danville IL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 64...WW 65...WW 66...WW 67... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25030. ...Hart Read more View the full article

WW 0065 Status Updates STATUS REPORT ON WW 65 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WEINMAN..04/01/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 65 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-011-013-015-017-019-027-029-031-033-035-037-047-049-051- 053-063-067-069-071-073-075-081-083-085-087-091-095-097-099-101- 103-105-107-109-111-113-115-117-119-121-123-125-131-133-137-141- 143-145-147-149-012240- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BLAINE BRYAN CADDO CANADIAN CARTER CLEVELAND COAL COMANCHE COTTON CRAIG CREEK GARFIELD GARVIN GRADY GRANT HUGHES JEFFERSON JOHNSTON KAY KINGFISHER KIOWA LINCOLN LOGAN LOVE MCCLAIN MCINTOSH MARSHALL MAYES MURRAY MUSKOGEE NOBLE NOWATA OKFUSKEE OKLAHOMA OKMULGEE OSAGE OTTAWA PAWNEE PAYNE PITTSBURG PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE ROGERS SEMINOLE STEPHENS TILLMAN TULSA WAGONER WASHINGTON WASHITA Read more View the full article

WW 0065 Status Updates STATUS REPORT ON WW 65 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WEINMAN..04/01/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 65 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-011-013-015-017-019-027-029-031-033-035-037-047-049-051- 053-063-067-069-071-073-075-081-083-085-087-091-095-097-099-101- 103-105-107-109-111-113-115-117-119-121-123-125-131-133-137-141- 143-145-147-149-012240- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BLAINE BRYAN CADDO CANADIAN CARTER CLEVELAND COAL COMANCHE COTTON CRAIG CREEK GARFIELD GARVIN GRADY GRANT HUGHES JEFFERSON JOHNSTON KAY KINGFISHER KIOWA LINCOLN LOGAN LOVE MCCLAIN MCINTOSH MARSHALL MAYES MURRAY MUSKOGEE NOBLE NOWATA OKFUSKEE OKLAHOMA OKMULGEE OSAGE OTTAWA PAWNEE PAYNE PITTSBURG PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE ROGERS SEMINOLE STEPHENS TILLMAN TULSA WAGONER WASHINGTON WASHITA Read more View the full article

WW 0064 Status Updates STATUS REPORT ON WW 64 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW EMP TO 20 N TOP. ..WEINMAN..04/01/24 ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 64 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC001-003-015-017-019-031-035-045-049-059-073-087-099-111-125- 133-139-177-191-205-207-012240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN ANDERSON BUTLER CHASE CHAUTAUQUA COFFEY COWLEY DOUGLAS ELK FRANKLIN GREENWOOD JEFFERSON LABETTE LYON MONTGOMERY NEOSHO OSAGE SHAWNEE SUMNER WILSON WOODSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more View the full article

WW 0064 Status Updates STATUS REPORT ON WW 64 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW EMP TO 20 N TOP. ..WEINMAN..04/01/24 ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 64 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC001-003-015-017-019-031-035-045-049-059-073-087-099-111-125- 133-139-177-191-205-207-012240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN ANDERSON BUTLER CHASE CHAUTAUQUA COFFEY COWLEY DOUGLAS ELK FRANKLIN GREENWOOD JEFFERSON LABETTE LYON MONTGOMERY NEOSHO OSAGE SHAWNEE SUMNER WILSON WOODSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more View the full article

MD 0323 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF MIDDLE/UPPER OHIO VALLEY Mesoscale Discussion 0323 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Areas affected...Portions of Middle/Upper Ohio Valley Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 011946Z - 012145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Should storms develop/mature, large hail and damaging winds will be possible. Storm coverage may remain isolated this afternoon and the need for a watch is not certain. Convective trends will be monitored. DISCUSSION...Destabilization continues along/south of a warm front within the Ohio Valley vicinity. A few weak convective cores within southern Indiana continue eastward. These storms may be capable of small hail. Continued heating/warm advection within the frontal zone may lead to additional storms along the boundary. Effective shear of 40-50 kts and MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg will mean potentially organized storms, should they mature. The main uncertainty is how intense these storms will become given neutral to modest mid-level height rises this afternoon. A watch is not anticipated in the short term, but convective trends will be monitored. A more substantial severe threat is expected later this evening/overnight. ..Wendt/Thompson.. 04/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX... LAT...LON 37838298 37708422 37858556 37978682 38308760 39358750 39728640 39488323 39028139 38288144 37838298 Read more View the full article

MD 0325 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN MISSOURI INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS Mesoscale Discussion 0325 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern Missouri into parts of central Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 012050Z - 012245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A tornado watch may be needed within the next 1-2 hours as additional storms may develop in east-central Missouri/central Illinois. The environment is supportive of large/very-large hail and damaging winds. The tornado threat is expected to increase this evening as low-level shear increases near the boundary. DISCUSSION...Cores within a broad area of precipitation have occasionally pulsed in intensity. Some recent CAM guidance suggest that additional storms will develop out of this activity within the next 2-3 hours. While current wind profiles are not overly supportive of tornadoes, storms will be near the warm front and low-level shear should improve this evening as 850 mb winds increase. Given the background environment and potential evolution of this activity, a tornado watch will need to be considered. ..Wendt/Thompson.. 04/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IND...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX... LAT...LON 39299311 39839092 39848842 39538742 39128758 38238994 38109132 38389261 39299311 Read more View the full article

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z A large-scale upper-level trough will be positioned over the central CONUS on D3/Wed, with a high amplitude ridge positioned over the West. By D4/Thu another upper-level trough will enter the West Coast while the general upper-level pattern shifts east. Strong mid-level flow associated with this trough will begin overspreading the southern/central CONUS by D5/Fri and persist through D7/Sun. Thereafter, evolution of the upper-level pattern becomes more uncertain. D5/Fri - D7/Sun: Southern/Central High Plains: Medium-range guidance continues to depict agreement in the potential for multiple days of wide-spread fire-weather conditions across the Southern/Central High Plains and adjacent regions. The aforementioned strong southwesterly mid-level flow should persist atop boundary layer conditions that are well-mixed. This will promote sustained winds exceeding 20 mph and RH values falling below 15% each day. Fuels are presently at least marginally receptive to large-fire spread, with ERC values exceeding 90% in at least localized areas of the region. For this outlook, the 40% and 70% probabilities have been maintained on D5/Fri and D6/Sat, and 40% probabilities have been introduced for the region on D7/Sun. These delineations have been confined to the most probable areas for critical fire-weather potential based on depictions/spread in the medium-range guidance. ..Karstens.. 04/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z A large-scale upper-level trough will be positioned over the central CONUS on D3/Wed, with a high amplitude ridge positioned over the West. By D4/Thu another upper-level trough will enter the West Coast while the general upper-level pattern shifts east. Strong mid-level flow associated with this trough will begin overspreading the southern/central CONUS by D5/Fri and persist through D7/Sun. Thereafter, evolution of the upper-level pattern becomes more uncertain. D5/Fri - D7/Sun: Southern/Central High Plains: Medium-range guidance continues to depict agreement in the potential for multiple days of wide-spread fire-weather conditions across the Southern/Central High Plains and adjacent regions. The aforementioned strong southwesterly mid-level flow should persist atop boundary layer conditions that are well-mixed. This will promote sustained winds exceeding 20 mph and RH values falling below 15% each day. Fuels are presently at least marginally receptive to large-fire spread, with ERC values exceeding 90% in at least localized areas of the region. For this outlook, the 40% and 70% probabilities have been maintained on D5/Fri and D6/Sat, and 40% probabilities have been introduced for the region on D7/Sun. These delineations have been confined to the most probable areas for critical fire-weather potential based on depictions/spread in the medium-range guidance. ..Karstens.. 04/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z A large-scale upper-level trough will be positioned over the central CONUS on D3/Wed, with a high amplitude ridge positioned over the West. By D4/Thu another upper-level trough will enter the West Coast while the general upper-level pattern shifts east. Strong mid-level flow associated with this trough will begin overspreading the southern/central CONUS by D5/Fri and persist through D7/Sun. Thereafter, evolution of the upper-level pattern becomes more uncertain. D5/Fri - D7/Sun: Southern/Central High Plains: Medium-range guidance continues to depict agreement in the potential for multiple days of wide-spread fire-weather conditions across the Southern/Central High Plains and adjacent regions. The aforementioned strong southwesterly mid-level flow should persist atop boundary layer conditions that are well-mixed. This will promote sustained winds exceeding 20 mph and RH values falling below 15% each day. Fuels are presently at least marginally receptive to large-fire spread, with ERC values exceeding 90% in at least localized areas of the region. For this outlook, the 40% and 70% probabilities have been maintained on D5/Fri and D6/Sat, and 40% probabilities have been introduced for the region on D7/Sun. These delineations have been confined to the most probable areas for critical fire-weather potential based on depictions/spread in the medium-range guidance. ..Karstens.. 04/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

WW 0067 Status Updates STATUS REPORT ON WW 31 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE CDS TO 15 W CSM TO 25 SW AVK TO 30 WSW P28. ..THORNTON..03/07/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...FWD...MAF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 31 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC011-015-017-027-031-033-039-043-047-049-051-055-057-065-067- 073-075-083-087-093-103-109-137-141-149-151-080040- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLAINE CADDO CANADIAN CLEVELAND COMANCHE COTTON CUSTER DEWEY GARFIELD GARVIN GRADY GREER HARMON JACKSON JEFFERSON KINGFISHER KIOWA LOGAN MCCLAIN MAJOR NOBLE OKLAHOMA STEPHENS TILLMAN WASHITA WOODS TXC009-023-049-059-077-081-083-095-101-133-151-155-173-197-207- 235-253-269-275-307-335-353-383-399-415-417-429-431-433-441-447- 451-485-487-503-080040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER BAYLOR BROWN Read more View the full article

WW 0067 Status Updates STATUS REPORT ON WW 31 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE CDS TO 15 W CSM TO 25 SW AVK TO 30 WSW P28. ..THORNTON..03/07/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...FWD...MAF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 31 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC011-015-017-027-031-033-039-043-047-049-051-055-057-065-067- 073-075-083-087-093-103-109-137-141-149-151-080040- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLAINE CADDO CANADIAN CLEVELAND COMANCHE COTTON CUSTER DEWEY GARFIELD GARVIN GRADY GREER HARMON JACKSON JEFFERSON KINGFISHER KIOWA LOGAN MCCLAIN MAJOR NOBLE OKLAHOMA STEPHENS TILLMAN WASHITA WOODS TXC009-023-049-059-077-081-083-095-101-133-151-155-173-197-207- 235-253-269-275-307-335-353-383-399-415-417-429-431-433-441-447- 451-485-487-503-080040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER BAYLOR BROWN Read more View the full article

WW 67 TORNADO KS MO 012025Z - 020400Z URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 67 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 325 PM CDT Mon Apr 1 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Extreme northeast Kansas Western Missouri * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 325 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible SUMMARY...Scattered severe storm development is expected this afternoon into this evening into western Missouri. The initial storms will likely be supercells capable of producing isolated very large hail (up to 2.5 inch diameter). The threat for a few tornadoes will increase gradually through the evening with both the supercells and any larger clusters that evolve, and a strong (EF2) tornado or two will be possible. The threat for damaging winds (60-80 mph) will also increase later this evening as storms grow upscale into clusters/line segments. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles west northwest of Chillicothe MO to 25 miles south of Monett MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 64...WW 65...WW 66... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24040. ...Thompson Read more View the full article

WW 67 TORNADO KS MO 012025Z - 020400Z URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 67 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 325 PM CDT Mon Apr 1 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Extreme northeast Kansas Western Missouri * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 325 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible SUMMARY...Scattered severe storm development is expected this afternoon into this evening into western Missouri. The initial storms will likely be supercells capable of producing isolated very large hail (up to 2.5 inch diameter). The threat for a few tornadoes will increase gradually through the evening with both the supercells and any larger clusters that evolve, and a strong (EF2) tornado or two will be possible. The threat for damaging winds (60-80 mph) will also increase later this evening as storms grow upscale into clusters/line segments. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles west northwest of Chillicothe MO to 25 miles south of Monett MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 64...WW 65...WW 66... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24040. ...Thompson Read more View the full article

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND INTO FAR NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with very large hail (2-3 inch diameter or greater), damaging gusts (60-80 mph) and a few tornadoes (potentially up to EF2) are expected this afternoon into tonight from north Texas and Oklahoma into the lower Ohio River Valley. ...Discussion... Current forecast reasoning and outlook areas remains generally in line with prior outlooks, with widespread/all-hazards severe risk from the southern Plains into the Ohio Valley. The main change in the current outlook update is a westward adjustment of thunder/severe probability lines across the Big Country and Concho Valley of Texas, where storms have initiated along a developing dryline a bit earlier, and farther west, than previously anticipated. Otherwise, the outlook remains largely unchanged at this time, aside from minor line tweaks to account for current convective evolution/development. ..Goss.. 04/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Embedded speed maxima (90-100+ kt 500 mb) from southern NM/far west TX to northwest Mexico will eject northeastward to OK this evening and MO overnight. An associated lee cyclone will deepen this afternoon across the TX South Plains and then progress into northwest OK this evening and the mid MS Valley by the end of the period. A broad/moist warm sector is in place from the southern Plains to the mid MS/lower OH Valleys, beneath a warm elevated mixed layer with 8-9 C/km midlevel lapse rates. The cap will weaken through the afternoon from the west, with thunderstorm initiation becoming likely by mid afternoon along a surface front from KS into MO/IL, and mid-late afternoon along the dryline from western/central OK into northwest TX. ...KS/MO/IL/IN through tonight... Scattered thunderstorm development is likely starting mid afternoon along the baroclinic zone from KS into MO, and storms will subsequently spread eastward along the warm front from MO into IL/IN. The environment will favor supercells capable of producing very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter) and a few tornadoes, with an isolated strong tornado possible. Storm mode will become messier into the overnight hours with upscale growth into clusters/line segments, with an increase in the threat for damaging winds (60-80 mph), and a continued threat for tornadoes (possibly up to EF2) with embedded/QLCS circulations. ...OK/TX this afternoon into early tonight... The elevated mixed layer and associated cap, along with widespread clouds, will tend to delay surface-based storm development until mid-late afternoon, when forcing for ascent increases from the southwest with the approach of the mid-upper jet streak. By about 21z, scattered thunderstorm development is expected along the dryline from northwest TX into western OK, and storms will spread quickly northeastward into central/eastern OK through this evening/early tonight. Steep midlevel lapse rates and boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s will contribute to MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg, in an environment with very strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs favorable for multiple supercells with very large hail (3 inches in diameter or greater). The magnitude of the tornado threat is a bit less certain, given a weakness in the low-level shear until a more consolidated low-level jet response begins by late evening, when storm mergers and upscale growth become more probable into eastern OK/northwest AR/southwest MO early tonight. However, given the very strong flow and seasonably rich low-level moisture, there will be the potential for a couple of strong (roughly EF2) tornadoes late this afternoon into tonight. Read more View the full article

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND INTO FAR NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with very large hail (2-3 inch diameter or greater), damaging gusts (60-80 mph) and a few tornadoes (potentially up to EF2) are expected this afternoon into tonight from north Texas and Oklahoma into the lower Ohio River Valley. ...Discussion... Current forecast reasoning and outlook areas remains generally in line with prior outlooks, with widespread/all-hazards severe risk from the southern Plains into the Ohio Valley. The main change in the current outlook update is a westward adjustment of thunder/severe probability lines across the Big Country and Concho Valley of Texas, where storms have initiated along a developing dryline a bit earlier, and farther west, than previously anticipated. Otherwise, the outlook remains largely unchanged at this time, aside from minor line tweaks to account for current convective evolution/development. ..Goss.. 04/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Embedded speed maxima (90-100+ kt 500 mb) from southern NM/far west TX to northwest Mexico will eject northeastward to OK this evening and MO overnight. An associated lee cyclone will deepen this afternoon across the TX South Plains and then progress into northwest OK this evening and the mid MS Valley by the end of the period. A broad/moist warm sector is in place from the southern Plains to the mid MS/lower OH Valleys, beneath a warm elevated mixed layer with 8-9 C/km midlevel lapse rates. The cap will weaken through the afternoon from the west, with thunderstorm initiation becoming likely by mid afternoon along a surface front from KS into MO/IL, and mid-late afternoon along the dryline from western/central OK into northwest TX. ...KS/MO/IL/IN through tonight... Scattered thunderstorm development is likely starting mid afternoon along the baroclinic zone from KS into MO, and storms will subsequently spread eastward along the warm front from MO into IL/IN. The environment will favor supercells capable of producing very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter) and a few tornadoes, with an isolated strong tornado possible. Storm mode will become messier into the overnight hours with upscale growth into clusters/line segments, with an increase in the threat for damaging winds (60-80 mph), and a continued threat for tornadoes (possibly up to EF2) with embedded/QLCS circulations. ...OK/TX this afternoon into early tonight... The elevated mixed layer and associated cap, along with widespread clouds, will tend to delay surface-based storm development until mid-late afternoon, when forcing for ascent increases from the southwest with the approach of the mid-upper jet streak. By about 21z, scattered thunderstorm development is expected along the dryline from northwest TX into western OK, and storms will spread quickly northeastward into central/eastern OK through this evening/early tonight. Steep midlevel lapse rates and boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s will contribute to MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg, in an environment with very strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs favorable for multiple supercells with very large hail (3 inches in diameter or greater). The magnitude of the tornado threat is a bit less certain, given a weakness in the low-level shear until a more consolidated low-level jet response begins by late evening, when storm mergers and upscale growth become more probable into eastern OK/northwest AR/southwest MO early tonight. However, given the very strong flow and seasonably rich low-level moisture, there will be the potential for a couple of strong (roughly EF2) tornadoes late this afternoon into tonight. Read more View the full article