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Flood Warning issued April 1 at 9:39AM EDT until April 5 at 5:00AM EDT by NWS Jacksonville FLView the full article

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER MISSOURI AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today into this evening within a broad swath from the southern Plains to the lower Missouri and Ohio Valley regions. Tornadoes (a few strong), destructive hail, and damaging thunderstorm gusts all are possible. ...Synopsis... The most important mid/upper-level feature for this forecast will be a deep, positively tilted, synoptic-scale trough, initially extending from the northern High Plains across UT to northern Baja. Several shortwave troughs and vorticity lobes will traverse the associated cyclonic flow, as the broader trough shifts eastward. By the end of the period, the synoptic trough should extend from IA across KS and the southern High Plains to far west TX and northwestern MX. A lead shortwave perturbation -- evident in moisture-channel imagery over the eastern AZ/western NM region and southward into adjoining parts of MX -- will eject across the southern High Plains today, reaching the TX Panhandle and western OK by 00Z. This feature should proceed northeastward to parts of northwestern MO and IA by 12Z tomorrow. Surface analysis at 11Z showed a frontal-wave low over central KS, with warm front to near a line from SZL-STL-ILN. The low should migrate along the slowly northward-moving warm front to MO by 00Z, with cold front southwestward across northwestern OK and the northernmost TX Panhandle. A dryline -- drawn initially from the low to the eastern TX Panhandle, near MAF, then southward into northern Coahuila -- should shift eastward through the afternoon to west-central/southwestern OK, extending southward across the TX Hill Country to near LRD. By 00Z, the warm front -- perhaps modulated on the mesoscale by areas of precip -- should extend across northern MO, central parts of IL/IN, to southern OH and parts of WV. A secondary low may form near the front/dryline intersection over western OK. By 12Z tomorrow, an elongated low-pressure area, with more than one center, is possible from the main frontal inflection over northeastern MO to central IN. The main cold front should reach southwestern MO, southeastern OK, northwest TX, and southeastern NM. To its southeast, a Pacific front should overtake the dryline this evening and overnight, reaching western AR, the Arklatex, east TX, and parts of deep south TX by the end of the period. ...Southeastern KS and western Ozarks to central TX... Scattered (OK/KS) to isolated (central TX) thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon along/ahead of the dryline and front, quickly becoming severe with all hazards possible. The hail threat will be greatest during the first few hours, while tornado potential ramps into a probable early-evening peak. Severe downdraft gusts also are possible, given the strong available buoyancy and fast cell motions expected. By late afternoon, much of OK and southeastern KS will reside under the left-exit region of a cyclonically curving jet streak, above strong low-level moisture transport accompanying a 50-65-kt LLJ. Initiation is expected as large-scale ascent preceding the lead shortwave starts to impinge upon a favorably heated dryline and moist sector, and the basal EML capping layer erodes. This may occur earlier over the northern OK/KS part of the outlook near the front. The environment will be favorable for frequent large hail and occasional significant to giant hailstones from any sustained supercells. MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg is possible, amidst 60-75 kt effective-shear magnitudes. Forecast soundings indicate abundant inflow-layer moisture content to supply the updrafts, long hodographs commonly associated with significant hail (from right- or left-moving storms), as well as significant to giant hail in both historic analog soundings and a 2D hail-model. Though convective coverage may become densest north of the Red River, the potential for longer-lasting discrete modes near and south of the Red River conditionally favor isolated extreme hail sizes even into north TX. Given mesoscale uncertainties and inconsistent convection-allowing model signals regarding initiation timing (which influences what low-level shear/hodograph space cells will enter) and mature storm duration before upscale merging/linear evolution occur, will hold hail probabilities at previous levels for now. However, a "hail moderate" may become necessary in this region if mesoscale trends and post-12Z/today guidance become better focused on timing/density. The geometry of the pattern aloft will compel a strong component of mid/upper-level flow parallel to the convective alignment, encouraging eventual merging, training, and quasi-linear evolution. How long that process will take is uncertain, and the line ultimately may backbuild into central TX. Still, with LLJ-expanded hodographs and surface-based inflow parcels available in the early/mid evening, tornado potential (some strong) should exist with any remaining discrete storms, as well as in embedded QLCS mesocirculations. Severe potential should ramp down late tonight (after about 06Z) over this region, but persist longer in the next (below). ...Lower Missouri Valley to Ohio Valley... Multiple episodes of strong-severe thunderstorm development are expected this afternoon through tonight, each capable of all severe hazards. The distribution of severe weather over this corridor may be quite non-uniform/clustered, as mesoscale convective processes and boundaries evolve. Strong tornadoes may occur over parts of MO into central/southern IL while the afternoon/evening CAPE/shear parameter space and frontal proximity encourage potential development of at least a couple long-lasting supercells. Severe to isolated giant hail also is possible, especially from discrete supercells the western portion over MO/IL containing steepest lapse rates, greatest CAPE, and similarly favorable vertical wind profiles as the southern Plains area. Moist advection should quickly boost boundary-layer mixing ratios and dewpoints today, with surface dewpoints in the 60s common along and south of the warm front by midafternoon. Peak/preconvective MLCAPE should reach 2000-2500 J/kg south of the warm front over parts of MO/IL/IN, diminishing to 1000-1500 J/kg from the northeastern KY/southern OH area eastward. Effective-shear magnitudes should range from near 60 kt over MO to 40-50 kt in eastern parts of the outlook. An MCS may evolve this evening from convection over MO and sweep east-northeastward on either side of the warm front, reaching parts of IN/OH/northern KY late tonight before weakening. Though moving into an airmass that will be stabilizing near the surface -- with time and eastward extent -- such a complex may have enough forced ascent and downward momentum transfer behind that to maintain organized wind-damage potential over the Ohio Valley tonight. ..Edwards/Leitman.. 04/01/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER MISSOURI AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today into this evening within a broad swath from the southern Plains to the lower Missouri and Ohio Valley regions. Tornadoes (a few strong), destructive hail, and damaging thunderstorm gusts all are possible. ...Synopsis... The most important mid/upper-level feature for this forecast will be a deep, positively tilted, synoptic-scale trough, initially extending from the northern High Plains across UT to northern Baja. Several shortwave troughs and vorticity lobes will traverse the associated cyclonic flow, as the broader trough shifts eastward. By the end of the period, the synoptic trough should extend from IA across KS and the southern High Plains to far west TX and northwestern MX. A lead shortwave perturbation -- evident in moisture-channel imagery over the eastern AZ/western NM region and southward into adjoining parts of MX -- will eject across the southern High Plains today, reaching the TX Panhandle and western OK by 00Z. This feature should proceed northeastward to parts of northwestern MO and IA by 12Z tomorrow. Surface analysis at 11Z showed a frontal-wave low over central KS, with warm front to near a line from SZL-STL-ILN. The low should migrate along the slowly northward-moving warm front to MO by 00Z, with cold front southwestward across northwestern OK and the northernmost TX Panhandle. A dryline -- drawn initially from the low to the eastern TX Panhandle, near MAF, then southward into northern Coahuila -- should shift eastward through the afternoon to west-central/southwestern OK, extending southward across the TX Hill Country to near LRD. By 00Z, the warm front -- perhaps modulated on the mesoscale by areas of precip -- should extend across northern MO, central parts of IL/IN, to southern OH and parts of WV. A secondary low may form near the front/dryline intersection over western OK. By 12Z tomorrow, an elongated low-pressure area, with more than one center, is possible from the main frontal inflection over northeastern MO to central IN. The main cold front should reach southwestern MO, southeastern OK, northwest TX, and southeastern NM. To its southeast, a Pacific front should overtake the dryline this evening and overnight, reaching western AR, the Arklatex, east TX, and parts of deep south TX by the end of the period. ...Southeastern KS and western Ozarks to central TX... Scattered (OK/KS) to isolated (central TX) thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon along/ahead of the dryline and front, quickly becoming severe with all hazards possible. The hail threat will be greatest during the first few hours, while tornado potential ramps into a probable early-evening peak. Severe downdraft gusts also are possible, given the strong available buoyancy and fast cell motions expected. By late afternoon, much of OK and southeastern KS will reside under the left-exit region of a cyclonically curving jet streak, above strong low-level moisture transport accompanying a 50-65-kt LLJ. Initiation is expected as large-scale ascent preceding the lead shortwave starts to impinge upon a favorably heated dryline and moist sector, and the basal EML capping layer erodes. This may occur earlier over the northern OK/KS part of the outlook near the front. The environment will be favorable for frequent large hail and occasional significant to giant hailstones from any sustained supercells. MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg is possible, amidst 60-75 kt effective-shear magnitudes. Forecast soundings indicate abundant inflow-layer moisture content to supply the updrafts, long hodographs commonly associated with significant hail (from right- or left-moving storms), as well as significant to giant hail in both historic analog soundings and a 2D hail-model. Though convective coverage may become densest north of the Red River, the potential for longer-lasting discrete modes near and south of the Red River conditionally favor isolated extreme hail sizes even into north TX. Given mesoscale uncertainties and inconsistent convection-allowing model signals regarding initiation timing (which influences what low-level shear/hodograph space cells will enter) and mature storm duration before upscale merging/linear evolution occur, will hold hail probabilities at previous levels for now. However, a "hail moderate" may become necessary in this region if mesoscale trends and post-12Z/today guidance become better focused on timing/density. The geometry of the pattern aloft will compel a strong component of mid/upper-level flow parallel to the convective alignment, encouraging eventual merging, training, and quasi-linear evolution. How long that process will take is uncertain, and the line ultimately may backbuild into central TX. Still, with LLJ-expanded hodographs and surface-based inflow parcels available in the early/mid evening, tornado potential (some strong) should exist with any remaining discrete storms, as well as in embedded QLCS mesocirculations. Severe potential should ramp down late tonight (after about 06Z) over this region, but persist longer in the next (below). ...Lower Missouri Valley to Ohio Valley... Multiple episodes of strong-severe thunderstorm development are expected this afternoon through tonight, each capable of all severe hazards. The distribution of severe weather over this corridor may be quite non-uniform/clustered, as mesoscale convective processes and boundaries evolve. Strong tornadoes may occur over parts of MO into central/southern IL while the afternoon/evening CAPE/shear parameter space and frontal proximity encourage potential development of at least a couple long-lasting supercells. Severe to isolated giant hail also is possible, especially from discrete supercells the western portion over MO/IL containing steepest lapse rates, greatest CAPE, and similarly favorable vertical wind profiles as the southern Plains area. Moist advection should quickly boost boundary-layer mixing ratios and dewpoints today, with surface dewpoints in the 60s common along and south of the warm front by midafternoon. Peak/preconvective MLCAPE should reach 2000-2500 J/kg south of the warm front over parts of MO/IL/IN, diminishing to 1000-1500 J/kg from the northeastern KY/southern OH area eastward. Effective-shear magnitudes should range from near 60 kt over MO to 40-50 kt in eastern parts of the outlook. An MCS may evolve this evening from convection over MO and sweep east-northeastward on either side of the warm front, reaching parts of IN/OH/northern KY late tonight before weakening. Though moving into an airmass that will be stabilizing near the surface -- with time and eastward extent -- such a complex may have enough forced ascent and downward momentum transfer behind that to maintain organized wind-damage potential over the Ohio Valley tonight. ..Edwards/Leitman.. 04/01/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER MISSOURI AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today into this evening within a broad swath from the southern Plains to the lower Missouri and Ohio Valley regions. Tornadoes (a few strong), destructive hail, and damaging thunderstorm gusts all are possible. ...Synopsis... The most important mid/upper-level feature for this forecast will be a deep, positively tilted, synoptic-scale trough, initially extending from the northern High Plains across UT to northern Baja. Several shortwave troughs and vorticity lobes will traverse the associated cyclonic flow, as the broader trough shifts eastward. By the end of the period, the synoptic trough should extend from IA across KS and the southern High Plains to far west TX and northwestern MX. A lead shortwave perturbation -- evident in moisture-channel imagery over the eastern AZ/western NM region and southward into adjoining parts of MX -- will eject across the southern High Plains today, reaching the TX Panhandle and western OK by 00Z. This feature should proceed northeastward to parts of northwestern MO and IA by 12Z tomorrow. Surface analysis at 11Z showed a frontal-wave low over central KS, with warm front to near a line from SZL-STL-ILN. The low should migrate along the slowly northward-moving warm front to MO by 00Z, with cold front southwestward across northwestern OK and the northernmost TX Panhandle. A dryline -- drawn initially from the low to the eastern TX Panhandle, near MAF, then southward into northern Coahuila -- should shift eastward through the afternoon to west-central/southwestern OK, extending southward across the TX Hill Country to near LRD. By 00Z, the warm front -- perhaps modulated on the mesoscale by areas of precip -- should extend across northern MO, central parts of IL/IN, to southern OH and parts of WV. A secondary low may form near the front/dryline intersection over western OK. By 12Z tomorrow, an elongated low-pressure area, with more than one center, is possible from the main frontal inflection over northeastern MO to central IN. The main cold front should reach southwestern MO, southeastern OK, northwest TX, and southeastern NM. To its southeast, a Pacific front should overtake the dryline this evening and overnight, reaching western AR, the Arklatex, east TX, and parts of deep south TX by the end of the period. ...Southeastern KS and western Ozarks to central TX... Scattered (OK/KS) to isolated (central TX) thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon along/ahead of the dryline and front, quickly becoming severe with all hazards possible. The hail threat will be greatest during the first few hours, while tornado potential ramps into a probable early-evening peak. Severe downdraft gusts also are possible, given the strong available buoyancy and fast cell motions expected. By late afternoon, much of OK and southeastern KS will reside under the left-exit region of a cyclonically curving jet streak, above strong low-level moisture transport accompanying a 50-65-kt LLJ. Initiation is expected as large-scale ascent preceding the lead shortwave starts to impinge upon a favorably heated dryline and moist sector, and the basal EML capping layer erodes. This may occur earlier over the northern OK/KS part of the outlook near the front. The environment will be favorable for frequent large hail and occasional significant to giant hailstones from any sustained supercells. MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg is possible, amidst 60-75 kt effective-shear magnitudes. Forecast soundings indicate abundant inflow-layer moisture content to supply the updrafts, long hodographs commonly associated with significant hail (from right- or left-moving storms), as well as significant to giant hail in both historic analog soundings and a 2D hail-model. Though convective coverage may become densest north of the Red River, the potential for longer-lasting discrete modes near and south of the Red River conditionally favor isolated extreme hail sizes even into north TX. Given mesoscale uncertainties and inconsistent convection-allowing model signals regarding initiation timing (which influences what low-level shear/hodograph space cells will enter) and mature storm duration before upscale merging/linear evolution occur, will hold hail probabilities at previous levels for now. However, a "hail moderate" may become necessary in this region if mesoscale trends and post-12Z/today guidance become better focused on timing/density. The geometry of the pattern aloft will compel a strong component of mid/upper-level flow parallel to the convective alignment, encouraging eventual merging, training, and quasi-linear evolution. How long that process will take is uncertain, and the line ultimately may backbuild into central TX. Still, with LLJ-expanded hodographs and surface-based inflow parcels available in the early/mid evening, tornado potential (some strong) should exist with any remaining discrete storms, as well as in embedded QLCS mesocirculations. Severe potential should ramp down late tonight (after about 06Z) over this region, but persist longer in the next (below). ...Lower Missouri Valley to Ohio Valley... Multiple episodes of strong-severe thunderstorm development are expected this afternoon through tonight, each capable of all severe hazards. The distribution of severe weather over this corridor may be quite non-uniform/clustered, as mesoscale convective processes and boundaries evolve. Strong tornadoes may occur over parts of MO into central/southern IL while the afternoon/evening CAPE/shear parameter space and frontal proximity encourage potential development of at least a couple long-lasting supercells. Severe to isolated giant hail also is possible, especially from discrete supercells the western portion over MO/IL containing steepest lapse rates, greatest CAPE, and similarly favorable vertical wind profiles as the southern Plains area. Moist advection should quickly boost boundary-layer mixing ratios and dewpoints today, with surface dewpoints in the 60s common along and south of the warm front by midafternoon. Peak/preconvective MLCAPE should reach 2000-2500 J/kg south of the warm front over parts of MO/IL/IN, diminishing to 1000-1500 J/kg from the northeastern KY/southern OH area eastward. Effective-shear magnitudes should range from near 60 kt over MO to 40-50 kt in eastern parts of the outlook. An MCS may evolve this evening from convection over MO and sweep east-northeastward on either side of the warm front, reaching parts of IN/OH/northern KY late tonight before weakening. Though moving into an airmass that will be stabilizing near the surface -- with time and eastward extent -- such a complex may have enough forced ascent and downward momentum transfer behind that to maintain organized wind-damage potential over the Ohio Valley tonight. ..Edwards/Leitman.. 04/01/2024 Read more View the full article

Special Weather Statement issued April 1 at 7:51AM EDT by NWS Jacksonville FLView the full article

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0605 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... A cold front will move south across Texas on Tuesday. In the wake of this cold front, dry and breezy conditions are expected. The best potential for Elevated fire weather conditions will be portions of the Texas Hill Country into far South Texas where sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph and relative humidity around 20 percent are expected. However, fuels have mostly greened up in this region and fuel availability may be limited. Therefore, an Elevated delineation was not added at this time. ..Bentley.. 04/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0605 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... A cold front will move south across Texas on Tuesday. In the wake of this cold front, dry and breezy conditions are expected. The best potential for Elevated fire weather conditions will be portions of the Texas Hill Country into far South Texas where sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph and relative humidity around 20 percent are expected. However, fuels have mostly greened up in this region and fuel availability may be limited. Therefore, an Elevated delineation was not added at this time. ..Bentley.. 04/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6... An upper-level low will move across the Northeast on Thursday and Friday, and into the western Atlantic on Saturday. During this period at the end of the week, an upper-level ridge is forecast to move through the central U.S. At the surface, a large area of high pressure is forecast to move from the central U.S. to the eastern states. Due to relatively dry and stable air, severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across most of the continental U.S. through Saturday. The greatest chance of thunderstorms would be in the southern and central Plains on Saturday evening, as weak moisture advection occurs in the Great Plains and an upper-level trough approaches from the southwest. ...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8... Moisture advection is forecast to take place ahead of an upper-level trough over the southern Plains and Ark-La-Tex on Sunday and Monday. An isolated severe threat could develop each afternoon across the moist sector, which should be in the southern Plains. The models suggest that instability will remain weak across this moist airmass, which would limit severe threat coverage in most areas. Predictability concerning the spacing of any potential threat remains low at this time, mainly due to the extended range. Read more View the full article

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6... An upper-level low will move across the Northeast on Thursday and Friday, and into the western Atlantic on Saturday. During this period at the end of the week, an upper-level ridge is forecast to move through the central U.S. At the surface, a large area of high pressure is forecast to move from the central U.S. to the eastern states. Due to relatively dry and stable air, severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across most of the continental U.S. through Saturday. The greatest chance of thunderstorms would be in the southern and central Plains on Saturday evening, as weak moisture advection occurs in the Great Plains and an upper-level trough approaches from the southwest. ...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8... Moisture advection is forecast to take place ahead of an upper-level trough over the southern Plains and Ark-La-Tex on Sunday and Monday. An isolated severe threat could develop each afternoon across the moist sector, which should be in the southern Plains. The models suggest that instability will remain weak across this moist airmass, which would limit severe threat coverage in most areas. Predictability concerning the spacing of any potential threat remains low at this time, mainly due to the extended range. Read more View the full article

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6... An upper-level low will move across the Northeast on Thursday and Friday, and into the western Atlantic on Saturday. During this period at the end of the week, an upper-level ridge is forecast to move through the central U.S. At the surface, a large area of high pressure is forecast to move from the central U.S. to the eastern states. Due to relatively dry and stable air, severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across most of the continental U.S. through Saturday. The greatest chance of thunderstorms would be in the southern and central Plains on Saturday evening, as weak moisture advection occurs in the Great Plains and an upper-level trough approaches from the southwest. ...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8... Moisture advection is forecast to take place ahead of an upper-level trough over the southern Plains and Ark-La-Tex on Sunday and Monday. An isolated severe threat could develop each afternoon across the moist sector, which should be in the southern Plains. The models suggest that instability will remain weak across this moist airmass, which would limit severe threat coverage in most areas. Predictability concerning the spacing of any potential threat remains low at this time, mainly due to the extended range. Read more View the full article

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...CAROLINAS AND CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible on Wednesday across parts of the Mid-Atlantic, Carolinas and Florida Peninsula. ...Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas... An upper-level low is forecast to move eastward into the Ohio Valley on Wednesday, as a mid-level jet translates eastward toward the Atlantic Seaboard. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance quickly eastward across the Atlantic Seaboard during the morning and afternoon. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front are forecast to be in the mid 60s F, which will contribute to weak destabilization during the day. As surface temperatures warm ahead of the boundary, scattered thunderstorm development is expected during the late morning and early afternoon. The greatest convective coverage should be the Mid-Atlantic, where the exit region of the mid-level jet will likely be associated with a pocket of strong large-scale ascent. This, combined with strong deep-layer shear, could be enough for an isolated wind-damage threat, as low-level lapse rates steepen during the day. Any severe threat is expected to diminish from west to east as the cold front moves into the coastal areas during the afternoon. ...Florida Peninsula... A 90 to 110 knot mid-level jet is forecast to move to the southern Atlantic Seaboard by midday, as a cold front advances southward across the Florida Peninsula. Thunderstorm development will be likely near and ahead of the front across much of the central Florida Peninsula during the afternoon. A moist airmass will be in place ahead of the front across central Florida, where surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the upper 60s and lower 70S F. This should aid weak destabilization. In addition, forecast soundings ahead of the front around 21Z have 0-6 km shear near 50 knots, with 0-3 km lapse rates near 6.5 C/km. This could support an isolated wind-damage threat with short multicell line segments that develop ahead of the front. Hail could also occur with the stronger cells. ..Broyles.. 04/01/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...CAROLINAS AND CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible on Wednesday across parts of the Mid-Atlantic, Carolinas and Florida Peninsula. ...Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas... An upper-level low is forecast to move eastward into the Ohio Valley on Wednesday, as a mid-level jet translates eastward toward the Atlantic Seaboard. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance quickly eastward across the Atlantic Seaboard during the morning and afternoon. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front are forecast to be in the mid 60s F, which will contribute to weak destabilization during the day. As surface temperatures warm ahead of the boundary, scattered thunderstorm development is expected during the late morning and early afternoon. The greatest convective coverage should be the Mid-Atlantic, where the exit region of the mid-level jet will likely be associated with a pocket of strong large-scale ascent. This, combined with strong deep-layer shear, could be enough for an isolated wind-damage threat, as low-level lapse rates steepen during the day. Any severe threat is expected to diminish from west to east as the cold front moves into the coastal areas during the afternoon. ...Florida Peninsula... A 90 to 110 knot mid-level jet is forecast to move to the southern Atlantic Seaboard by midday, as a cold front advances southward across the Florida Peninsula. Thunderstorm development will be likely near and ahead of the front across much of the central Florida Peninsula during the afternoon. A moist airmass will be in place ahead of the front across central Florida, where surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the upper 60s and lower 70S F. This should aid weak destabilization. In addition, forecast soundings ahead of the front around 21Z have 0-6 km shear near 50 knots, with 0-3 km lapse rates near 6.5 C/km. This could support an isolated wind-damage threat with short multicell line segments that develop ahead of the front. Hail could also occur with the stronger cells. ..Broyles.. 04/01/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...CAROLINAS AND CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible on Wednesday across parts of the Mid-Atlantic, Carolinas and Florida Peninsula. ...Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas... An upper-level low is forecast to move eastward into the Ohio Valley on Wednesday, as a mid-level jet translates eastward toward the Atlantic Seaboard. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance quickly eastward across the Atlantic Seaboard during the morning and afternoon. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front are forecast to be in the mid 60s F, which will contribute to weak destabilization during the day. As surface temperatures warm ahead of the boundary, scattered thunderstorm development is expected during the late morning and early afternoon. The greatest convective coverage should be the Mid-Atlantic, where the exit region of the mid-level jet will likely be associated with a pocket of strong large-scale ascent. This, combined with strong deep-layer shear, could be enough for an isolated wind-damage threat, as low-level lapse rates steepen during the day. Any severe threat is expected to diminish from west to east as the cold front moves into the coastal areas during the afternoon. ...Florida Peninsula... A 90 to 110 knot mid-level jet is forecast to move to the southern Atlantic Seaboard by midday, as a cold front advances southward across the Florida Peninsula. Thunderstorm development will be likely near and ahead of the front across much of the central Florida Peninsula during the afternoon. A moist airmass will be in place ahead of the front across central Florida, where surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the upper 60s and lower 70S F. This should aid weak destabilization. In addition, forecast soundings ahead of the front around 21Z have 0-6 km shear near 50 knots, with 0-3 km lapse rates near 6.5 C/km. This could support an isolated wind-damage threat with short multicell line segments that develop ahead of the front. Hail could also occur with the stronger cells. ..Broyles.. 04/01/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A very strong mid-level jet will overspread the southern Plains today. Given the well-mixed airmass in the region, very strong winds (30+ mph sustained) are expected. The airmass is not expected to be overly dry and in fact, some precipitation is expected across portions of the Texas Panhandle. However, relative humidity of 20 to 25 percent is likely in the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin. This will result in at least some threat for large fires in the region. ..Bentley.. 04/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A very strong mid-level jet will overspread the southern Plains today. Given the well-mixed airmass in the region, very strong winds (30+ mph sustained) are expected. The airmass is not expected to be overly dry and in fact, some precipitation is expected across portions of the Texas Panhandle. However, relative humidity of 20 to 25 percent is likely in the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin. This will result in at least some threat for large fires in the region. ..Bentley.. 04/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... A severe threat is expected on Tuesday from the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys eastward into the Mid-Atlantic, and southward into the central Gulf Coast states. Wind damage and isolated large hail will be possible across a broad area. The tornado threat is expected to be greatest from middle Tennessee north-northeastward into central and northern Kentucky. ...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys/Central Gulf Coast States/Central Appalachians... An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, as a cold front advances eastward toward the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. By afternoon, a north-to-south corridor of maximized low-level moisture is forecast to be in place from the northern Gulf Coast States to central Kentucky, where surface dewpoints are expected to be in the mid 60s F. As instability increases along this corridor, numerous thunderstorms will likely develop, with a linear MCS organizing and moving eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys during the afternoon and evening. This large MCS should reach the central Appalachians by early to mid evening. A 90 to 100 knot mid-level jet will likely move northeastward into the Ohio Valley during the afternoon. This jet will create strong deep-layer shear across most of the region. Forecast soundings by 21Z from middle Tennessee to central Kentucky have 0-6 km shear in the 70 to 80 knot range. The wind shear and strong large-scale ascent, associated with the mid-level jet, will be favorable for the development of a squall line Tuesday afternoon. This linear MCS will likely have numerous embedded severe storms with the greatest threat being wind damage. The wind-damage threat is expected to maximize during the late afternoon and early evening. QLCS tornadic circulations will be possible along some parts of the line, especially near bowing segments. An isolated large hail threat is also expected in areas where the squall line interacts with locally stronger instability, and with isolated rotating cells that develop ahead of the line. The severe threat is expected to decrease during the mid to late evening as the line moves through the central Appalachians. ...Central Gulf Coast States... An upper-level trough will move eastward across the southern Plains on Tuesday, as a cold front moves eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. Surface dewpoints should be in the mid to upper 60s F ahead of the front, where some models suggest that MLCAPE will peak in the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range during the afternoon. Scattered thunderstorm development appears likely to take place ahead of the front early in the day, with an organized line segment or cluster moving eastward across the central Gulf Coast States during the afternoon. Strong deep-layer shear will be in place, and low-level lapse rates will steepen during the late morning and early afternoon. The environment will likely support a wind-damage and isolated large-hail threat. An isolated tornado threat will also be possible, especially in the northern Gulf Coast states near the southern edge of the low-level jet. Large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear are forecast to be somewhat weaker across the central and southern Gulf Coast states, which should result in a more isolated severe threat with southward extent. ...Mid-Atlantic... An anticyclonic flow pattern is forecast across the Eastern Seaboard on Tuesday. At the surface, a relatively cold airmass is forecast across much of the Mid-Atlantic due to cold air damming. Above the cold surface air, elevated instability is forecast to increase during the evening, as the exit region of the mid-level jet moves through the central Appalachians. Thunderstorms that form in the unstable air aloft, may have a potential for marginally severe hail during the evening into the early overnight period. ..Broyles.. 04/01/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... A severe threat is expected on Tuesday from the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys eastward into the Mid-Atlantic, and southward into the central Gulf Coast states. Wind damage and isolated large hail will be possible across a broad area. The tornado threat is expected to be greatest from middle Tennessee north-northeastward into central and northern Kentucky. ...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys/Central Gulf Coast States/Central Appalachians... An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, as a cold front advances eastward toward the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. By afternoon, a north-to-south corridor of maximized low-level moisture is forecast to be in place from the northern Gulf Coast States to central Kentucky, where surface dewpoints are expected to be in the mid 60s F. As instability increases along this corridor, numerous thunderstorms will likely develop, with a linear MCS organizing and moving eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys during the afternoon and evening. This large MCS should reach the central Appalachians by early to mid evening. A 90 to 100 knot mid-level jet will likely move northeastward into the Ohio Valley during the afternoon. This jet will create strong deep-layer shear across most of the region. Forecast soundings by 21Z from middle Tennessee to central Kentucky have 0-6 km shear in the 70 to 80 knot range. The wind shear and strong large-scale ascent, associated with the mid-level jet, will be favorable for the development of a squall line Tuesday afternoon. This linear MCS will likely have numerous embedded severe storms with the greatest threat being wind damage. The wind-damage threat is expected to maximize during the late afternoon and early evening. QLCS tornadic circulations will be possible along some parts of the line, especially near bowing segments. An isolated large hail threat is also expected in areas where the squall line interacts with locally stronger instability, and with isolated rotating cells that develop ahead of the line. The severe threat is expected to decrease during the mid to late evening as the line moves through the central Appalachians. ...Central Gulf Coast States... An upper-level trough will move eastward across the southern Plains on Tuesday, as a cold front moves eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. Surface dewpoints should be in the mid to upper 60s F ahead of the front, where some models suggest that MLCAPE will peak in the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range during the afternoon. Scattered thunderstorm development appears likely to take place ahead of the front early in the day, with an organized line segment or cluster moving eastward across the central Gulf Coast States during the afternoon. Strong deep-layer shear will be in place, and low-level lapse rates will steepen during the late morning and early afternoon. The environment will likely support a wind-damage and isolated large-hail threat. An isolated tornado threat will also be possible, especially in the northern Gulf Coast states near the southern edge of the low-level jet. Large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear are forecast to be somewhat weaker across the central and southern Gulf Coast states, which should result in a more isolated severe threat with southward extent. ...Mid-Atlantic... An anticyclonic flow pattern is forecast across the Eastern Seaboard on Tuesday. At the surface, a relatively cold airmass is forecast across much of the Mid-Atlantic due to cold air damming. Above the cold surface air, elevated instability is forecast to increase during the evening, as the exit region of the mid-level jet moves through the central Appalachians. Thunderstorms that form in the unstable air aloft, may have a potential for marginally severe hail during the evening into the early overnight period. ..Broyles.. 04/01/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... A severe threat is expected on Tuesday from the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys eastward into the Mid-Atlantic, and southward into the central Gulf Coast states. Wind damage and isolated large hail will be possible across a broad area. The tornado threat is expected to be greatest from middle Tennessee north-northeastward into central and northern Kentucky. ...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys/Central Gulf Coast States/Central Appalachians... An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, as a cold front advances eastward toward the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. By afternoon, a north-to-south corridor of maximized low-level moisture is forecast to be in place from the northern Gulf Coast States to central Kentucky, where surface dewpoints are expected to be in the mid 60s F. As instability increases along this corridor, numerous thunderstorms will likely develop, with a linear MCS organizing and moving eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys during the afternoon and evening. This large MCS should reach the central Appalachians by early to mid evening. A 90 to 100 knot mid-level jet will likely move northeastward into the Ohio Valley during the afternoon. This jet will create strong deep-layer shear across most of the region. Forecast soundings by 21Z from middle Tennessee to central Kentucky have 0-6 km shear in the 70 to 80 knot range. The wind shear and strong large-scale ascent, associated with the mid-level jet, will be favorable for the development of a squall line Tuesday afternoon. This linear MCS will likely have numerous embedded severe storms with the greatest threat being wind damage. The wind-damage threat is expected to maximize during the late afternoon and early evening. QLCS tornadic circulations will be possible along some parts of the line, especially near bowing segments. An isolated large hail threat is also expected in areas where the squall line interacts with locally stronger instability, and with isolated rotating cells that develop ahead of the line. The severe threat is expected to decrease during the mid to late evening as the line moves through the central Appalachians. ...Central Gulf Coast States... An upper-level trough will move eastward across the southern Plains on Tuesday, as a cold front moves eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. Surface dewpoints should be in the mid to upper 60s F ahead of the front, where some models suggest that MLCAPE will peak in the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range during the afternoon. Scattered thunderstorm development appears likely to take place ahead of the front early in the day, with an organized line segment or cluster moving eastward across the central Gulf Coast States during the afternoon. Strong deep-layer shear will be in place, and low-level lapse rates will steepen during the late morning and early afternoon. The environment will likely support a wind-damage and isolated large-hail threat. An isolated tornado threat will also be possible, especially in the northern Gulf Coast states near the southern edge of the low-level jet. Large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear are forecast to be somewhat weaker across the central and southern Gulf Coast states, which should result in a more isolated severe threat with southward extent. ...Mid-Atlantic... An anticyclonic flow pattern is forecast across the Eastern Seaboard on Tuesday. At the surface, a relatively cold airmass is forecast across much of the Mid-Atlantic due to cold air damming. Above the cold surface air, elevated instability is forecast to increase during the evening, as the exit region of the mid-level jet moves through the central Appalachians. Thunderstorms that form in the unstable air aloft, may have a potential for marginally severe hail during the evening into the early overnight period. ..Broyles.. 04/01/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OZARKS AND INTO FAR WESTERN INDIANA.... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is expected to occur over a broad region from the southern Plains, the Ozarks, portions of the Ohio Valley, and into a small part of the Mid-Atlantic. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes (some strong) are possible. The severe threat will peak this afternoon/evening in the southern Plains with the greatest threat for the Ohio Valley vicinity being the evening/overnight period. ...Synopsis... A large, positively tilted upper-level trough will shift east from the Southwest to the central Plains today. A mid-level shortwave trough, currently rounding the base of the large scale trough, will advance quickly northeast through the day today within a strong mid-level jet. This strong flow will overspread a broad, very moist warm sector and lead to severe weather across a large portion of the Southern Plains into the Midwest. A surface low is present across eastern Colorado this morning with a stationary front extending eastward across Kansas and Missouri and into the Ohio Valley. This surface low will drift slowly east through the day and the front is expected to lift north across Missouri as a warm front during the afternoon. ...North Texas, central and eastern Oklahoma, southeast Kansas, and the Ozarks... Mid 60s dewpoints are expected across much of the warm sector east of the dryline by mid-day today with temperatures warming into the 70s to low 80s. Moderate to strong instability is expected to develop by the time ascent associated with the approaching trough overspreads the dryline. Once this occurs, expect rapid storm development along the dryline from southern Kansas to north Texas. Very strong shear, and mostly straight hodographs will support splitting supercells initially capable of large to potentially giant hail across a broad region from southwest Missouri to north Texas. Storm evolution off the dryline is still somewhat uncertain. Some guidance depicts more discrete development off the dryline and the potential for multiple rounds of supercells, while other CAM guidance waits until closer to 00Z to convect and leads to upscale growth and significant storm interaction within the first few hours. This evolution will have a significant impact on the longevity of the giant hail threat, but even with a messy storm mode, very large hail will remain a threat. Low-level shear is expected to be very weak for much of the day, which will limit the tornado threat. However, by the evening, the low-level jet is expected to strengthen with the ejecting wave and low-level shear will improve. The most favorable hodographs are expected across northeast Oklahoma into southeast Kansas and southwest/central Missouri in a region where mature supercells will likely be ongoing. Therefore, a more favorable period for tornadoes and potentially strong tornadoes may exist from 23-03Z as the low-level shear improves. ...Eastern Missouri into southern Illinois... At least isolated supercells are expected to develop along the warm front from northern Missouri into central Illinois this afternoon and evening. Strong instability and very strong shear will support large to very large hail. In addition, storm motion is expected to be parallel to the surface front. Therefore, any supercells which can latch onto the warm front will have a higher tornado threat. However, more isolated storm coverage and uncertainty regarding storm evolution preclude higher tornado probabilities in this region. Later in the evening and into the overnight hours, storms from the west will move into the region with a threat for large hail, a few tornadoes, and severe wind gusts. ...Ohio River Vicinity... Supercells from Illinois may continue east along the warm front into the evening across southern Indiana and potentially southern Ohio. Additional storms may also develop along this frontal zone with a primary threat of large hail. Weaker instability/shear should limit the overall threat from these storms compared to farther west. However, moderate instability and strong shear will support a threat for large hail, damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado. Overnight, a cluster of storms is expected to approach from the west. The overnight environment will continue to support a severe threat with 1500 J/kg MLCAPE and effective shear in excess of 50 knots. There is still considerable uncertainty how this cluster will evolve. A cluster of supercells would pose a threat for all severe weather hazards, while a more organized MCS may support a greater severe wind and QLCS tornado threat. ...Central Texas... Strong instability is expected to develop ahead of a dryline across central Texas this afternoon. Confluence along the dryline and weak height falls should provide ample support for isolated to scattered storm development. Any storms which develop will be capable of very large to giant hail, given very strong instability and shear an expected supercellular storm mode. ..Bentley/Darrow.. 04/01/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OZARKS AND INTO FAR WESTERN INDIANA.... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is expected to occur over a broad region from the southern Plains, the Ozarks, portions of the Ohio Valley, and into a small part of the Mid-Atlantic. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes (some strong) are possible. The severe threat will peak this afternoon/evening in the southern Plains with the greatest threat for the Ohio Valley vicinity being the evening/overnight period. ...Synopsis... A large, positively tilted upper-level trough will shift east from the Southwest to the central Plains today. A mid-level shortwave trough, currently rounding the base of the large scale trough, will advance quickly northeast through the day today within a strong mid-level jet. This strong flow will overspread a broad, very moist warm sector and lead to severe weather across a large portion of the Southern Plains into the Midwest. A surface low is present across eastern Colorado this morning with a stationary front extending eastward across Kansas and Missouri and into the Ohio Valley. This surface low will drift slowly east through the day and the front is expected to lift north across Missouri as a warm front during the afternoon. ...North Texas, central and eastern Oklahoma, southeast Kansas, and the Ozarks... Mid 60s dewpoints are expected across much of the warm sector east of the dryline by mid-day today with temperatures warming into the 70s to low 80s. Moderate to strong instability is expected to develop by the time ascent associated with the approaching trough overspreads the dryline. Once this occurs, expect rapid storm development along the dryline from southern Kansas to north Texas. Very strong shear, and mostly straight hodographs will support splitting supercells initially capable of large to potentially giant hail across a broad region from southwest Missouri to north Texas. Storm evolution off the dryline is still somewhat uncertain. Some guidance depicts more discrete development off the dryline and the potential for multiple rounds of supercells, while other CAM guidance waits until closer to 00Z to convect and leads to upscale growth and significant storm interaction within the first few hours. This evolution will have a significant impact on the longevity of the giant hail threat, but even with a messy storm mode, very large hail will remain a threat. Low-level shear is expected to be very weak for much of the day, which will limit the tornado threat. However, by the evening, the low-level jet is expected to strengthen with the ejecting wave and low-level shear will improve. The most favorable hodographs are expected across northeast Oklahoma into southeast Kansas and southwest/central Missouri in a region where mature supercells will likely be ongoing. Therefore, a more favorable period for tornadoes and potentially strong tornadoes may exist from 23-03Z as the low-level shear improves. ...Eastern Missouri into southern Illinois... At least isolated supercells are expected to develop along the warm front from northern Missouri into central Illinois this afternoon and evening. Strong instability and very strong shear will support large to very large hail. In addition, storm motion is expected to be parallel to the surface front. Therefore, any supercells which can latch onto the warm front will have a higher tornado threat. However, more isolated storm coverage and uncertainty regarding storm evolution preclude higher tornado probabilities in this region. Later in the evening and into the overnight hours, storms from the west will move into the region with a threat for large hail, a few tornadoes, and severe wind gusts. ...Ohio River Vicinity... Supercells from Illinois may continue east along the warm front into the evening across southern Indiana and potentially southern Ohio. Additional storms may also develop along this frontal zone with a primary threat of large hail. Weaker instability/shear should limit the overall threat from these storms compared to farther west. However, moderate instability and strong shear will support a threat for large hail, damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado. Overnight, a cluster of storms is expected to approach from the west. The overnight environment will continue to support a severe threat with 1500 J/kg MLCAPE and effective shear in excess of 50 knots. There is still considerable uncertainty how this cluster will evolve. A cluster of supercells would pose a threat for all severe weather hazards, while a more organized MCS may support a greater severe wind and QLCS tornado threat. ...Central Texas... Strong instability is expected to develop ahead of a dryline across central Texas this afternoon. Confluence along the dryline and weak height falls should provide ample support for isolated to scattered storm development. Any storms which develop will be capable of very large to giant hail, given very strong instability and shear an expected supercellular storm mode. ..Bentley/Darrow.. 04/01/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OZARKS AND INTO FAR WESTERN INDIANA.... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is expected to occur over a broad region from the southern Plains, the Ozarks, portions of the Ohio Valley, and into a small part of the Mid-Atlantic. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes (some strong) are possible. The severe threat will peak this afternoon/evening in the southern Plains with the greatest threat for the Ohio Valley vicinity being the evening/overnight period. ...Synopsis... A large, positively tilted upper-level trough will shift east from the Southwest to the central Plains today. A mid-level shortwave trough, currently rounding the base of the large scale trough, will advance quickly northeast through the day today within a strong mid-level jet. This strong flow will overspread a broad, very moist warm sector and lead to severe weather across a large portion of the Southern Plains into the Midwest. A surface low is present across eastern Colorado this morning with a stationary front extending eastward across Kansas and Missouri and into the Ohio Valley. This surface low will drift slowly east through the day and the front is expected to lift north across Missouri as a warm front during the afternoon. ...North Texas, central and eastern Oklahoma, southeast Kansas, and the Ozarks... Mid 60s dewpoints are expected across much of the warm sector east of the dryline by mid-day today with temperatures warming into the 70s to low 80s. Moderate to strong instability is expected to develop by the time ascent associated with the approaching trough overspreads the dryline. Once this occurs, expect rapid storm development along the dryline from southern Kansas to north Texas. Very strong shear, and mostly straight hodographs will support splitting supercells initially capable of large to potentially giant hail across a broad region from southwest Missouri to north Texas. Storm evolution off the dryline is still somewhat uncertain. Some guidance depicts more discrete development off the dryline and the potential for multiple rounds of supercells, while other CAM guidance waits until closer to 00Z to convect and leads to upscale growth and significant storm interaction within the first few hours. This evolution will have a significant impact on the longevity of the giant hail threat, but even with a messy storm mode, very large hail will remain a threat. Low-level shear is expected to be very weak for much of the day, which will limit the tornado threat. However, by the evening, the low-level jet is expected to strengthen with the ejecting wave and low-level shear will improve. The most favorable hodographs are expected across northeast Oklahoma into southeast Kansas and southwest/central Missouri in a region where mature supercells will likely be ongoing. Therefore, a more favorable period for tornadoes and potentially strong tornadoes may exist from 23-03Z as the low-level shear improves. ...Eastern Missouri into southern Illinois... At least isolated supercells are expected to develop along the warm front from northern Missouri into central Illinois this afternoon and evening. Strong instability and very strong shear will support large to very large hail. In addition, storm motion is expected to be parallel to the surface front. Therefore, any supercells which can latch onto the warm front will have a higher tornado threat. However, more isolated storm coverage and uncertainty regarding storm evolution preclude higher tornado probabilities in this region. Later in the evening and into the overnight hours, storms from the west will move into the region with a threat for large hail, a few tornadoes, and severe wind gusts. ...Ohio River Vicinity... Supercells from Illinois may continue east along the warm front into the evening across southern Indiana and potentially southern Ohio. Additional storms may also develop along this frontal zone with a primary threat of large hail. Weaker instability/shear should limit the overall threat from these storms compared to farther west. However, moderate instability and strong shear will support a threat for large hail, damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado. Overnight, a cluster of storms is expected to approach from the west. The overnight environment will continue to support a severe threat with 1500 J/kg MLCAPE and effective shear in excess of 50 knots. There is still considerable uncertainty how this cluster will evolve. A cluster of supercells would pose a threat for all severe weather hazards, while a more organized MCS may support a greater severe wind and QLCS tornado threat. ...Central Texas... Strong instability is expected to develop ahead of a dryline across central Texas this afternoon. Confluence along the dryline and weak height falls should provide ample support for isolated to scattered storm development. Any storms which develop will be capable of very large to giant hail, given very strong instability and shear an expected supercellular storm mode. ..Bentley/Darrow.. 04/01/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 PM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN ILLINOIS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA.... ...SUMMARY... A few storms may produce large hail into the overnight period across portions of the Ohio Valley. ...Eastern IL/southern IN Tonight... A long track supercell across central Illinois will continue to move east-southeast along the frontal boundary through this evening. A similar mesoscale environment to what was observed on the 00Z ILX RAOB is expected to persist along the front which could maintain this supercell for several more hours. However, 850mb flow is expected to gradually veer through the evening which may eventually lead to weakening of this supercell. Have maintained a narrow Slight risk ahead of this storm with a primary threat of large hail. Please see MCD 318 for additional discussion of this storm. Elsewhere, a few strong to perhaps severe storms are possible in the vicinity of the same warm front, but height rises and the aforementioned veering low-level jet will likely limit coverage and intensity of storms. ..Bentley.. 04/01/2024 Read more View the full article

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Apr 1 00:31:02 UTC 2024.View the full article

Flood Warning issued March 31 at 8:29PM EDT until April 1 at 11:00PM EDT by NWS Tallahassee FLView the full article

Flood Warning issued March 31 at 8:23PM EDT until April 5 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Charleston SCView the full article