NorthGeorgiaWX

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... An elevated area was considered for portions of the Texas Hill Country into far South Texas. Despite somewhat marginal fuel receptivity evident at the present time, hot/breezy conditions today will likely lead to some drying of fine fuels to support more widespread fire-weather conditions noted in the previous outlook. However, uncertainty remains in the chance/coverage of wetting rains this evening across this region, precluding the introduction of any fire-weather highlights at this time. ..Karstens.. 04/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0605 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... A cold front will move south across Texas on Tuesday. In the wake of this cold front, dry and breezy conditions are expected. The best potential for Elevated fire weather conditions will be portions of the Texas Hill Country into far South Texas where sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph and relative humidity around 20 percent are expected. However, fuels have mostly greened up in this region and fuel availability may be limited. Therefore, an Elevated delineation was not added at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... An elevated area was considered for portions of the Texas Hill Country into far South Texas. Despite somewhat marginal fuel receptivity evident at the present time, hot/breezy conditions today will likely lead to some drying of fine fuels to support more widespread fire-weather conditions noted in the previous outlook. However, uncertainty remains in the chance/coverage of wetting rains this evening across this region, precluding the introduction of any fire-weather highlights at this time. ..Karstens.. 04/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0605 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... A cold front will move south across Texas on Tuesday. In the wake of this cold front, dry and breezy conditions are expected. The best potential for Elevated fire weather conditions will be portions of the Texas Hill Country into far South Texas where sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph and relative humidity around 20 percent are expected. However, fuels have mostly greened up in this region and fuel availability may be limited. Therefore, an Elevated delineation was not added at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

WW 0064 Status Updates STATUS FOR WATCH 0064 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more View the full article

WW 0064 Status Updates STATUS FOR WATCH 0064 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more View the full article

WW 0064 Status Updates STATUS FOR WATCH 0064 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more View the full article

WW 0064 Status Updates STATUS FOR WATCH 0064 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more View the full article

WW 0064 Status Updates STATUS FOR WATCH 0064 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more View the full article

WW 0064 Status Updates STATUS FOR WATCH 0064 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more View the full article

WW 64 SEVERE TSTM KS 011840Z - 020200Z URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 64 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 140 PM CDT Mon Apr 1 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Kansas * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 140 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon across southeast and eastern Kansas, with the potential for supercells with isolated very large hail (up to 2.5 inches in diameter) and damaging gusts of 60-70 mph. The tornado threat will remain somewhat limited, though an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out, especially later this evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles south southwest of Chanute KS to 20 miles northwest of Topeka KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Thompson Read more View the full article

WW 64 SEVERE TSTM KS 011840Z - 020200Z URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 64 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 140 PM CDT Mon Apr 1 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Kansas * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 140 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon across southeast and eastern Kansas, with the potential for supercells with isolated very large hail (up to 2.5 inches in diameter) and damaging gusts of 60-70 mph. The tornado threat will remain somewhat limited, though an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out, especially later this evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles south southwest of Chanute KS to 20 miles northwest of Topeka KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Thompson Read more View the full article

MD 0320 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN KS Mesoscale Discussion 0320 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0113 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Areas affected...Central/Eastern KS Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 011813Z - 012015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of large to very large (1" to 2.5") hail are possible across central and eastern KS this afternoon. A strong gust or two is also possible. DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a low over northeast KS with a cold front extending southwestward from this low through south-central KS. Low-level stability remains within much of the region ahead of this front, where the surface conditions are characterized by temperatures in the low/mid 70s and dewpoints in the low 60s amid widespread cloud cover. Even so, steep mid-level lapse rates are in place and the combination of broad warm-air advection and ascent along the front is expected to result in convective initiation within the next hour or two. Given the initially elevated and embedded storm character, a somewhat messy storm mode is anticipated once initiation occurs. Even so, deep-layer vertical shear is quite strong, with recent mesoanalysis estimated 60 to 70 kt of 0-6 bulk shear. This shear is sufficient for updraft organization within in mature, deep updrafts. The presence of steep lapse rates will favor the development of large to very large hail (i.e. 1" to 2.5") within these mature and organized storms. Given the low-level stability and weak low-level shear, the tornado potential for the next few hours should remain low. However, further air mass destabilization and strengthening low-level flow over time may allow these storms to trend more surface based as they move eastward/northeast into MO, resulting in an increase tornado threat. ..Mosier/Thompson.. 04/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 37849748 39019596 39189492 38849439 38289427 37739441 37339466 37109498 36999567 37019691 37029750 37149833 37849748 Read more View the full article

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF OHIO...AND INCLUDING ADJACENT PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...AND WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... A potentially substantial severe weather outbreak -- possibly including a few significant/long-track tornadoes -- is evident for Tuesday afternoon and evening, with highest probability centered over the Ohio vicinity, and extending southward across the Tennessee Valley. Some severe risk exists as far south as the Gulf Coast, and as far east as western portions of Virginia and the Carolinas. ...Synopsis... While a positively tilted upper trough moves across the central third of the country Tuesday, a more compact/energetic short-wave feature is expected to dig aggressively/quickly southeastward across the Upper Midwest, gradually evolving into a closed low as it does. By Wednesday morning, the deepening low is progged to reside over the Illinois vicinity. At the surface, a low initially over the Missouri vicinity is progged to deepen as the upper system digs southeastward, shifting northeastward across the Midwest through the day, and then occluding northward into Lower Michigan overnight. A cold front associated with the low will sweep across the Mid Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valley through the day, and the Lower Mississippi/Tennessee/Upper Ohio Valleys overnight, crossing central/southern Appalachian Crest late. Meanwhile, a warm sector should expand as far north and east as central and northeast Indiana/northern Ohio/western Pennsylvania, though limited in northward progress to West Virginia/northern Virginia/Maryland by persistent/slow-to-retreat cold-air damming over the Northeast. ...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys... Widespread thunderstorms -- including some degree of all-hazards severe risk -- will likely be spreading rapidly eastward across the Ohio Valley area at the start of the period. This convection should reach the central Appalachians by late morning/midday, but -- though potentially having some impact on destabilization potential across the MDT and ENH risk areas -- should largely shift far enough east to allow warm-sector destabilization to commence. As the surface low deepens and crosses Illinois and eventually moves into Indiana, and the cold front advances across the Mid Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys, storm redevelopment is expected to occur during the afternoon. While evolution/storm mode remains somewhat difficult to discern -- in part due to earlier storms -- some mix of cellular and cluster/linear mode is expected to evolve. Given the ample destabilization expected in combination with very strong/veering deep-layer flow, all-hazards severe potential is evident, including very large hail, strong/damaging winds, and several significant tornadoes. The greatest risk, which will include potential for a couple of intense/long-track tornadoes, should begin across Indiana, and the spread across Ohio through the afternoon and evening, potentially reaching as far east as western portions of West Virginia and far western Pennsylvania into the evening. Eastward advance of the risk into central Pennsylvania will likely remain limited, but otherwise threat may spread into western portions of Virginia and the Carolinas late. ...Florida/Georgia/southeastern Alabama and perhaps into the western Carolinas... Thunderstorm development is expected to increase late in the period from the Florida Panhandle northeastward, ahead of the advancing cold front. With indications of potentially cellular mode with this convection, concerns for a very late-period increase in tornado potential exist, given background shear profiles supportive of updraft rotation. While somewhat uncertain at this point, have expanded 5% tornado probability substantially eastward/southeastward to include this potential. ..Goss.. 04/01/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF OHIO...AND INCLUDING ADJACENT PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...AND WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... A potentially substantial severe weather outbreak -- possibly including a few significant/long-track tornadoes -- is evident for Tuesday afternoon and evening, with highest probability centered over the Ohio vicinity, and extending southward across the Tennessee Valley. Some severe risk exists as far south as the Gulf Coast, and as far east as western portions of Virginia and the Carolinas. ...Synopsis... While a positively tilted upper trough moves across the central third of the country Tuesday, a more compact/energetic short-wave feature is expected to dig aggressively/quickly southeastward across the Upper Midwest, gradually evolving into a closed low as it does. By Wednesday morning, the deepening low is progged to reside over the Illinois vicinity. At the surface, a low initially over the Missouri vicinity is progged to deepen as the upper system digs southeastward, shifting northeastward across the Midwest through the day, and then occluding northward into Lower Michigan overnight. A cold front associated with the low will sweep across the Mid Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valley through the day, and the Lower Mississippi/Tennessee/Upper Ohio Valleys overnight, crossing central/southern Appalachian Crest late. Meanwhile, a warm sector should expand as far north and east as central and northeast Indiana/northern Ohio/western Pennsylvania, though limited in northward progress to West Virginia/northern Virginia/Maryland by persistent/slow-to-retreat cold-air damming over the Northeast. ...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys... Widespread thunderstorms -- including some degree of all-hazards severe risk -- will likely be spreading rapidly eastward across the Ohio Valley area at the start of the period. This convection should reach the central Appalachians by late morning/midday, but -- though potentially having some impact on destabilization potential across the MDT and ENH risk areas -- should largely shift far enough east to allow warm-sector destabilization to commence. As the surface low deepens and crosses Illinois and eventually moves into Indiana, and the cold front advances across the Mid Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys, storm redevelopment is expected to occur during the afternoon. While evolution/storm mode remains somewhat difficult to discern -- in part due to earlier storms -- some mix of cellular and cluster/linear mode is expected to evolve. Given the ample destabilization expected in combination with very strong/veering deep-layer flow, all-hazards severe potential is evident, including very large hail, strong/damaging winds, and several significant tornadoes. The greatest risk, which will include potential for a couple of intense/long-track tornadoes, should begin across Indiana, and the spread across Ohio through the afternoon and evening, potentially reaching as far east as western portions of West Virginia and far western Pennsylvania into the evening. Eastward advance of the risk into central Pennsylvania will likely remain limited, but otherwise threat may spread into western portions of Virginia and the Carolinas late. ...Florida/Georgia/southeastern Alabama and perhaps into the western Carolinas... Thunderstorm development is expected to increase late in the period from the Florida Panhandle northeastward, ahead of the advancing cold front. With indications of potentially cellular mode with this convection, concerns for a very late-period increase in tornado potential exist, given background shear profiles supportive of updraft rotation. While somewhat uncertain at this point, have expanded 5% tornado probability substantially eastward/southeastward to include this potential. ..Goss.. 04/01/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF OHIO...AND INCLUDING ADJACENT PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...AND WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... A potentially substantial severe weather outbreak -- possibly including a few significant/long-track tornadoes -- is evident for Tuesday afternoon and evening, with highest probability centered over the Ohio vicinity, and extending southward across the Tennessee Valley. Some severe risk exists as far south as the Gulf Coast, and as far east as western portions of Virginia and the Carolinas. ...Synopsis... While a positively tilted upper trough moves across the central third of the country Tuesday, a more compact/energetic short-wave feature is expected to dig aggressively/quickly southeastward across the Upper Midwest, gradually evolving into a closed low as it does. By Wednesday morning, the deepening low is progged to reside over the Illinois vicinity. At the surface, a low initially over the Missouri vicinity is progged to deepen as the upper system digs southeastward, shifting northeastward across the Midwest through the day, and then occluding northward into Lower Michigan overnight. A cold front associated with the low will sweep across the Mid Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valley through the day, and the Lower Mississippi/Tennessee/Upper Ohio Valleys overnight, crossing central/southern Appalachian Crest late. Meanwhile, a warm sector should expand as far north and east as central and northeast Indiana/northern Ohio/western Pennsylvania, though limited in northward progress to West Virginia/northern Virginia/Maryland by persistent/slow-to-retreat cold-air damming over the Northeast. ...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys... Widespread thunderstorms -- including some degree of all-hazards severe risk -- will likely be spreading rapidly eastward across the Ohio Valley area at the start of the period. This convection should reach the central Appalachians by late morning/midday, but -- though potentially having some impact on destabilization potential across the MDT and ENH risk areas -- should largely shift far enough east to allow warm-sector destabilization to commence. As the surface low deepens and crosses Illinois and eventually moves into Indiana, and the cold front advances across the Mid Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys, storm redevelopment is expected to occur during the afternoon. While evolution/storm mode remains somewhat difficult to discern -- in part due to earlier storms -- some mix of cellular and cluster/linear mode is expected to evolve. Given the ample destabilization expected in combination with very strong/veering deep-layer flow, all-hazards severe potential is evident, including very large hail, strong/damaging winds, and several significant tornadoes. The greatest risk, which will include potential for a couple of intense/long-track tornadoes, should begin across Indiana, and the spread across Ohio through the afternoon and evening, potentially reaching as far east as western portions of West Virginia and far western Pennsylvania into the evening. Eastward advance of the risk into central Pennsylvania will likely remain limited, but otherwise threat may spread into western portions of Virginia and the Carolinas late. ...Florida/Georgia/southeastern Alabama and perhaps into the western Carolinas... Thunderstorm development is expected to increase late in the period from the Florida Panhandle northeastward, ahead of the advancing cold front. With indications of potentially cellular mode with this convection, concerns for a very late-period increase in tornado potential exist, given background shear profiles supportive of updraft rotation. While somewhat uncertain at this point, have expanded 5% tornado probability substantially eastward/southeastward to include this potential. ..Goss.. 04/01/2024 Read more View the full article

MD 0319 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS Mesoscale Discussion 0319 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Areas affected...Portions of northern Missouri into central Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 011735Z - 011930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...An increase in storm coverage is expected along/north of a warm front this afternoon. Large to very large hail will be the initial threat. A greater tornado threat can be expected late afternoon/early evening with discrete storms near the boundary.On or more watches are possible this afternoon, but timing is not certain. DISCUSSION...The 12Z observed ILX sounding showed moderately steep mid-level lapse rates. As the warm front has lifted northward within the mid-Mississippi Valley, substantial low-level moistening has occurred in parts of central Illinois. With time, this boundary is expected to continue to lift northward. Initial weak, elevated convection has developed in northern Missouri and central Illinois. This activity should remain sub-severe in the short term. As destabilization continues into the afternoon, some of these storms may become surface based. Given the wind profiles and lapse rates, large hail would be possible. Very-large (2+ in.) hail could occur with the stronger supercells. Storms north of the warm front will remain elevated. Some increase in coverage and intensity appears possible as theta-e advection aloft increases as the 850 mb low deepens. There remains some uncertainty as to the exact timing of an increase in storm coverage. Several CAMs suggest coverage increases later in the afternoon as the upper trough moves farther east. The tornado threat will at least initially be low. However, low-level shear will increase late this afternoon/early evening. Storms ongoing near the warm front will consequently have a greater tornado potential at that time. On or more watches are possible this afternoon, but timing is not certain. ..Wendt/Thompson.. 04/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX... LAT...LON 39109422 39629384 39939340 40399240 40429164 40438910 40298802 39758767 38728788 38228828 38039132 38049180 38619391 39109422 Read more View the full article

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHWEST AND WEST TEXAS... A minor expansion was made to the critical area into portions West Texas. Additional refinements to the elevated area were made across northeast New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle where RH values are trending higher and precipitation is forecast this afternoon/evening, based on the latest high-resolution guidance. Otherwise the balance of the previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 04/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... A very strong mid-level jet will overspread the southern Plains today. Given the well-mixed airmass in the region, very strong winds (30+ mph sustained) are expected. The airmass is not expected to be overly dry and in fact, some precipitation is expected across portions of the Texas Panhandle. However, relative humidity of 20 to 25 percent is likely in the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin. This will result in at least some threat for large fires in the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHWEST AND WEST TEXAS... A minor expansion was made to the critical area into portions West Texas. Additional refinements to the elevated area were made across northeast New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle where RH values are trending higher and precipitation is forecast this afternoon/evening, based on the latest high-resolution guidance. Otherwise the balance of the previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 04/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... A very strong mid-level jet will overspread the southern Plains today. Given the well-mixed airmass in the region, very strong winds (30+ mph sustained) are expected. The airmass is not expected to be overly dry and in fact, some precipitation is expected across portions of the Texas Panhandle. However, relative humidity of 20 to 25 percent is likely in the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin. This will result in at least some threat for large fires in the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHWEST AND WEST TEXAS... A minor expansion was made to the critical area into portions West Texas. Additional refinements to the elevated area were made across northeast New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle where RH values are trending higher and precipitation is forecast this afternoon/evening, based on the latest high-resolution guidance. Otherwise the balance of the previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 04/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... A very strong mid-level jet will overspread the southern Plains today. Given the well-mixed airmass in the region, very strong winds (30+ mph sustained) are expected. The airmass is not expected to be overly dry and in fact, some precipitation is expected across portions of the Texas Panhandle. However, relative humidity of 20 to 25 percent is likely in the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin. This will result in at least some threat for large fires in the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EXTREME NORTH TX INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN OK... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with very large hail (2-3 inch diameter or greater), damaging gusts (60-80 mph) and a few tornadoes (potentially up to EF2) are expected this afternoon into tonight from north Texas and Oklahoma into the lower Ohio River Valley. ...Synopsis... Embedded speed maxima (90-100+ kt 500 mb) from southern NM/far west TX to northwest Mexico will eject northeastward to OK this evening and MO overnight. An associated lee cyclone will deepen this afternoon across the TX South Plains and then progress into northwest OK this evening and the mid MS Valley by the end of the period. A broad/moist warm sector is in place from the southern Plains to the mid MS/lower OH Valleys, beneath a warm elevated mixed layer with 8-9 C/km midlevel lapse rates. The cap will weaken through the afternoon from the west, with thunderstorm initiation becoming likely by mid afternoon along a surface front from KS into MO/IL, and mid-late afternoon along the dryline from western/central OK into northwest TX. ...KS/MO/IL/IN through tonight... Scattered thunderstorm development is likely starting mid afternoon along the baroclinic zone from KS into MO, and storms will subsequently spread eastward along the warm front from MO into IL/IN. The environment will favor supercells capable of producing very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter) and a few tornadoes, with an isolated strong tornado possible. Storm mode will become messier into the overnight hours with upscale growth into clusters/line segments, with an increase in the threat for damaging winds (60-80 mph), and a continued threat for tornadoes (possibly up to EF2) with embedded/QLCS circulations. ...OK/TX this afternoon into early tonight... The elevated mixed layer and associated cap, along with widespread clouds, will tend to delay surface-based storm development until mid-late afternoon, when forcing for ascent increases from the southwest with the approach of the mid-upper jet streak. By about 21z, scattered thunderstorm development is expected along the dryline from northwest TX into western OK, and storms will spread quickly northeastward into central/eastern OK through this evening/early tonight. Steep midlevel lapse rates and boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s will contribute to MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg, in an environment with very strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs favorable for multiple supercells with very large hail (3 inches in diameter or greater). The magnitude of the tornado threat is a bit less certain, given a weakness in the low-level shear until a more consolidated low-level jet response begins by late evening, when storm mergers and upscale growth become more probable into eastern OK/northwest AR/southwest MO early tonight. However, given the very strong flow and seasonably rich low-level moisture, there will be the potential for a couple of strong (roughly EF2) tornadoes late this afternoon into tonight. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 04/01/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EXTREME NORTH TX INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN OK... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with very large hail (2-3 inch diameter or greater), damaging gusts (60-80 mph) and a few tornadoes (potentially up to EF2) are expected this afternoon into tonight from north Texas and Oklahoma into the lower Ohio River Valley. ...Synopsis... Embedded speed maxima (90-100+ kt 500 mb) from southern NM/far west TX to northwest Mexico will eject northeastward to OK this evening and MO overnight. An associated lee cyclone will deepen this afternoon across the TX South Plains and then progress into northwest OK this evening and the mid MS Valley by the end of the period. A broad/moist warm sector is in place from the southern Plains to the mid MS/lower OH Valleys, beneath a warm elevated mixed layer with 8-9 C/km midlevel lapse rates. The cap will weaken through the afternoon from the west, with thunderstorm initiation becoming likely by mid afternoon along a surface front from KS into MO/IL, and mid-late afternoon along the dryline from western/central OK into northwest TX. ...KS/MO/IL/IN through tonight... Scattered thunderstorm development is likely starting mid afternoon along the baroclinic zone from KS into MO, and storms will subsequently spread eastward along the warm front from MO into IL/IN. The environment will favor supercells capable of producing very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter) and a few tornadoes, with an isolated strong tornado possible. Storm mode will become messier into the overnight hours with upscale growth into clusters/line segments, with an increase in the threat for damaging winds (60-80 mph), and a continued threat for tornadoes (possibly up to EF2) with embedded/QLCS circulations. ...OK/TX this afternoon into early tonight... The elevated mixed layer and associated cap, along with widespread clouds, will tend to delay surface-based storm development until mid-late afternoon, when forcing for ascent increases from the southwest with the approach of the mid-upper jet streak. By about 21z, scattered thunderstorm development is expected along the dryline from northwest TX into western OK, and storms will spread quickly northeastward into central/eastern OK through this evening/early tonight. Steep midlevel lapse rates and boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s will contribute to MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg, in an environment with very strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs favorable for multiple supercells with very large hail (3 inches in diameter or greater). The magnitude of the tornado threat is a bit less certain, given a weakness in the low-level shear until a more consolidated low-level jet response begins by late evening, when storm mergers and upscale growth become more probable into eastern OK/northwest AR/southwest MO early tonight. However, given the very strong flow and seasonably rich low-level moisture, there will be the potential for a couple of strong (roughly EF2) tornadoes late this afternoon into tonight. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 04/01/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EXTREME NORTH TX INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN OK... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with very large hail (2-3 inch diameter or greater), damaging gusts (60-80 mph) and a few tornadoes (potentially up to EF2) are expected this afternoon into tonight from north Texas and Oklahoma into the lower Ohio River Valley. ...Synopsis... Embedded speed maxima (90-100+ kt 500 mb) from southern NM/far west TX to northwest Mexico will eject northeastward to OK this evening and MO overnight. An associated lee cyclone will deepen this afternoon across the TX South Plains and then progress into northwest OK this evening and the mid MS Valley by the end of the period. A broad/moist warm sector is in place from the southern Plains to the mid MS/lower OH Valleys, beneath a warm elevated mixed layer with 8-9 C/km midlevel lapse rates. The cap will weaken through the afternoon from the west, with thunderstorm initiation becoming likely by mid afternoon along a surface front from KS into MO/IL, and mid-late afternoon along the dryline from western/central OK into northwest TX. ...KS/MO/IL/IN through tonight... Scattered thunderstorm development is likely starting mid afternoon along the baroclinic zone from KS into MO, and storms will subsequently spread eastward along the warm front from MO into IL/IN. The environment will favor supercells capable of producing very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter) and a few tornadoes, with an isolated strong tornado possible. Storm mode will become messier into the overnight hours with upscale growth into clusters/line segments, with an increase in the threat for damaging winds (60-80 mph), and a continued threat for tornadoes (possibly up to EF2) with embedded/QLCS circulations. ...OK/TX this afternoon into early tonight... The elevated mixed layer and associated cap, along with widespread clouds, will tend to delay surface-based storm development until mid-late afternoon, when forcing for ascent increases from the southwest with the approach of the mid-upper jet streak. By about 21z, scattered thunderstorm development is expected along the dryline from northwest TX into western OK, and storms will spread quickly northeastward into central/eastern OK through this evening/early tonight. Steep midlevel lapse rates and boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s will contribute to MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg, in an environment with very strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs favorable for multiple supercells with very large hail (3 inches in diameter or greater). The magnitude of the tornado threat is a bit less certain, given a weakness in the low-level shear until a more consolidated low-level jet response begins by late evening, when storm mergers and upscale growth become more probable into eastern OK/northwest AR/southwest MO early tonight. However, given the very strong flow and seasonably rich low-level moisture, there will be the potential for a couple of strong (roughly EF2) tornadoes late this afternoon into tonight. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 04/01/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EXTREME NORTH TX INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN OK... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with very large hail (2-3 inch diameter or greater), damaging gusts (60-80 mph) and a few tornadoes (potentially up to EF2) are expected this afternoon into tonight from north Texas and Oklahoma into the lower Ohio River Valley. ...Synopsis... Embedded speed maxima (90-100+ kt 500 mb) from southern NM/far west TX to northwest Mexico will eject northeastward to OK this evening and MO overnight. An associated lee cyclone will deepen this afternoon across the TX South Plains and then progress into northwest OK this evening and the mid MS Valley by the end of the period. A broad/moist warm sector is in place from the southern Plains to the mid MS/lower OH Valleys, beneath a warm elevated mixed layer with 8-9 C/km midlevel lapse rates. The cap will weaken through the afternoon from the west, with thunderstorm initiation becoming likely by mid afternoon along a surface front from KS into MO/IL, and mid-late afternoon along the dryline from western/central OK into northwest TX. ...KS/MO/IL/IN through tonight... Scattered thunderstorm development is likely starting mid afternoon along the baroclinic zone from KS into MO, and storms will subsequently spread eastward along the warm front from MO into IL/IN. The environment will favor supercells capable of producing very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter) and a few tornadoes, with an isolated strong tornado possible. Storm mode will become messier into the overnight hours with upscale growth into clusters/line segments, with an increase in the threat for damaging winds (60-80 mph), and a continued threat for tornadoes (possibly up to EF2) with embedded/QLCS circulations. ...OK/TX this afternoon into early tonight... The elevated mixed layer and associated cap, along with widespread clouds, will tend to delay surface-based storm development until mid-late afternoon, when forcing for ascent increases from the southwest with the approach of the mid-upper jet streak. By about 21z, scattered thunderstorm development is expected along the dryline from northwest TX into western OK, and storms will spread quickly northeastward into central/eastern OK through this evening/early tonight. Steep midlevel lapse rates and boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s will contribute to MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg, in an environment with very strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs favorable for multiple supercells with very large hail (3 inches in diameter or greater). The magnitude of the tornado threat is a bit less certain, given a weakness in the low-level shear until a more consolidated low-level jet response begins by late evening, when storm mergers and upscale growth become more probable into eastern OK/northwest AR/southwest MO early tonight. However, given the very strong flow and seasonably rich low-level moisture, there will be the potential for a couple of strong (roughly EF2) tornadoes late this afternoon into tonight. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 04/01/2024 Read more View the full article

Flood Warning issued April 1 at 10:37AM EDT until April 5 at 4:00PM EDT by NWS Charleston SCView the full article

Flood Warning issued April 1 at 9:44AM EDT until April 4 at 2:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston SCView the full article

Flood Warning issued April 1 at 9:39AM EDT by NWS Jacksonville FLView the full article