NorthGeorgiaWX

Flood Warning issued January 16 at 11:51AM EST until January 19 at 1:00PM EST by NWSView the full article

MD 0074 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL FLORIDA Mesoscale Discussion 0074 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1017 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Areas affected...Central Florida Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 161617Z - 161815Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A line of storms moving onto the Florida west coast within the next hour may pose a risk of damaging winds. Watch issuance is not anticipated. DISCUSSION...A band of convection focused along a cold front is slowly approaching the FL west coast per recent radar/satellite imagery. GOES IR and lightning trends show a few intensifying updrafts within the line, denoted by concentrated lightning clusters and cooling cloud top temperatures. This trend should continue as the line moves onshore where temperatures are warming into the low/mid 70s and MLCAPE values are slowly increasing to 1000-1500 J/kg. VWP observations from KTBW show 0-6 km BWD values around 50-60 knots, but deep-layer shear vectors are largely oriented along the boundary with weak line-normal deep-layer shear. This may limit the overall organization/intensity of the line, but may support stronger embedded segments capable of damaging winds. This kinematic regime is not overly favorable for line-embedded tornadoes, but a brief tornado appears possible if a portion of the line can become more oriented from southeast to northwest. Confidence in this scenario is low at this time given recent storm trends, and a damaging wind risk appears more probable. Regardless, the overall severe threat appears too limited to warrant watch issuance. ..Moore/Thompson.. 01/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX... LAT...LON 28268276 28578263 28918271 29598115 29228100 28878081 28458073 28238066 28158070 27668245 27638262 27658273 27868287 28028286 28268276 Read more View the full article

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1001 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL FL... ...SUMMARY... A brief tornado or two and isolated damaging winds are possible through this afternoon across central Florida. ...Central FL this afternoon... A broad midlevel trough from the Ozarks to the OH Valley will progress eastward to the Atlantic coast by late tonight, as an associated surface cold front moves southeastward across central/south FL. A subtle/embedded speed max over the northern Gulf of Mexico will move over north FL this afternoon, and this will help focus thunderstorm development through the day across central FL, both along and south of the cold front. Midlevel lapse rates will not be steep, but some cloud breaks north of ongoing convection and boundary-layer dewpoints in the low 70s will contribute to MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg ahead of the cold front, and somewhat larger buoyancy along the southern fringes of the ongoing convection in central FL. The storms west of Tampa have shown some increase in intensity along the front, and additional storm development is possible along the southern periphery of the ongoing storms across central FL. Deep-layer vertical shear/hodograph length will be sufficient for some organized/rotating storms, while low-level hodograph curvature/SRH will remain relatively larger through early afternoon and begin to decrease by mid-late afternoon as low-level flow veers. The net result will be the potential for line segments or supercells capable of producing isolated wind damage. A brief tornado or two will also be possible, focused a little more toward the Atlantic coast where low-level shear will be modestly stronger through more of the afternoon. ..Thompson/Moore.. 01/16/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1001 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL FL... ...SUMMARY... A brief tornado or two and isolated damaging winds are possible through this afternoon across central Florida. ...Central FL this afternoon... A broad midlevel trough from the Ozarks to the OH Valley will progress eastward to the Atlantic coast by late tonight, as an associated surface cold front moves southeastward across central/south FL. A subtle/embedded speed max over the northern Gulf of Mexico will move over north FL this afternoon, and this will help focus thunderstorm development through the day across central FL, both along and south of the cold front. Midlevel lapse rates will not be steep, but some cloud breaks north of ongoing convection and boundary-layer dewpoints in the low 70s will contribute to MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg ahead of the cold front, and somewhat larger buoyancy along the southern fringes of the ongoing convection in central FL. The storms west of Tampa have shown some increase in intensity along the front, and additional storm development is possible along the southern periphery of the ongoing storms across central FL. Deep-layer vertical shear/hodograph length will be sufficient for some organized/rotating storms, while low-level hodograph curvature/SRH will remain relatively larger through early afternoon and begin to decrease by mid-late afternoon as low-level flow veers. The net result will be the potential for line segments or supercells capable of producing isolated wind damage. A brief tornado or two will also be possible, focused a little more toward the Atlantic coast where low-level shear will be modestly stronger through more of the afternoon. ..Thompson/Moore.. 01/16/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1001 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL FL... ...SUMMARY... A brief tornado or two and isolated damaging winds are possible through this afternoon across central Florida. ...Central FL this afternoon... A broad midlevel trough from the Ozarks to the OH Valley will progress eastward to the Atlantic coast by late tonight, as an associated surface cold front moves southeastward across central/south FL. A subtle/embedded speed max over the northern Gulf of Mexico will move over north FL this afternoon, and this will help focus thunderstorm development through the day across central FL, both along and south of the cold front. Midlevel lapse rates will not be steep, but some cloud breaks north of ongoing convection and boundary-layer dewpoints in the low 70s will contribute to MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg ahead of the cold front, and somewhat larger buoyancy along the southern fringes of the ongoing convection in central FL. The storms west of Tampa have shown some increase in intensity along the front, and additional storm development is possible along the southern periphery of the ongoing storms across central FL. Deep-layer vertical shear/hodograph length will be sufficient for some organized/rotating storms, while low-level hodograph curvature/SRH will remain relatively larger through early afternoon and begin to decrease by mid-late afternoon as low-level flow veers. The net result will be the potential for line segments or supercells capable of producing isolated wind damage. A brief tornado or two will also be possible, focused a little more toward the Atlantic coast where low-level shear will be modestly stronger through more of the afternoon. ..Thompson/Moore.. 01/16/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1001 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL FL... ...SUMMARY... A brief tornado or two and isolated damaging winds are possible through this afternoon across central Florida. ...Central FL this afternoon... A broad midlevel trough from the Ozarks to the OH Valley will progress eastward to the Atlantic coast by late tonight, as an associated surface cold front moves southeastward across central/south FL. A subtle/embedded speed max over the northern Gulf of Mexico will move over north FL this afternoon, and this will help focus thunderstorm development through the day across central FL, both along and south of the cold front. Midlevel lapse rates will not be steep, but some cloud breaks north of ongoing convection and boundary-layer dewpoints in the low 70s will contribute to MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg ahead of the cold front, and somewhat larger buoyancy along the southern fringes of the ongoing convection in central FL. The storms west of Tampa have shown some increase in intensity along the front, and additional storm development is possible along the southern periphery of the ongoing storms across central FL. Deep-layer vertical shear/hodograph length will be sufficient for some organized/rotating storms, while low-level hodograph curvature/SRH will remain relatively larger through early afternoon and begin to decrease by mid-late afternoon as low-level flow veers. The net result will be the potential for line segments or supercells capable of producing isolated wind damage. A brief tornado or two will also be possible, focused a little more toward the Atlantic coast where low-level shear will be modestly stronger through more of the afternoon. ..Thompson/Moore.. 01/16/2024 Read more View the full article

Flood Warning issued January 16 at 11:04AM EST until January 17 at 7:00AM EST by NWSView the full article

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0932 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 01/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1148 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... An amplified large-scale trough will continue eastward across the eastern half of the CONUS, while an expansive arctic air mass shifts east-southeastward from the southern Plains into the Southeast. Cold surface temperatures accompanying the arctic air mass will limit fire-weather concerns across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0932 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 01/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1148 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... An amplified large-scale trough will continue eastward across the eastern half of the CONUS, while an expansive arctic air mass shifts east-southeastward from the southern Plains into the Southeast. Cold surface temperatures accompanying the arctic air mass will limit fire-weather concerns across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

Wind Chill Advisory issued January 16 at 10:11AM EST until January 17 at 10:00AM EST by NWSView the full article

Wind Chill Advisory issued January 16 at 10:11AM EST until January 17 at 10:00AM EST by NWSView the full article

Wind Chill Advisory issued January 16 at 10:11AM EST until January 17 at 10:00AM EST by NWSView the full article

Special Weather Statement issued January 16 at 9:54AM EST by NWSView the full article

Flood Warning issued January 16 at 9:46AM EST until further notice by NWSView the full article

Flood Warning issued January 16 at 9:44AM EST until further notice by NWSView the full article

Flood Warning issued January 16 at 9:44AM EST until further notice by NWSView the full article

Special Weather Statement issued January 16 at 9:39AM EST by NWSView the full article

MD 0073 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND Mesoscale Discussion 0073 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Areas affected...Parts of the Mid Atlantic into southern New England Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 161349Z - 161745Z SUMMARY...Locally moderate winter precipitation rates will spread northeastward this morning, with some modest ice accretion possible where freezing rain persists. DISCUSSION...A surface low currently off of the Mid Atlantic coast is forecast to gradually deepen as it moves northeast toward coastal southern New England this morning. Multiple waves of light to locally moderate precipitation are ongoing and will continue to spread northeastward in conjunction with the surface low. While interior portions of the Northeast will likely continue to see snow (with generally light to moderate rates) this morning, low-level warm advection will support a transition from snow to sleet across parts of southern New England, with freezing rain persisting over portions of the Mid Atlantic region. As the low deepens offshore, a modest uptick in precipitation intensity will be possible through the morning. While rates will likely remain light to locally moderate, antecedent cold conditions (with temperatures initially in the 20s F) may result in relatively efficient ice accretion in areas that transition to freezing rain. Pockets of moderate sleet/snow will also be possible into parts of southern New England. Low-level warm advection will support a gradual transition to rain along the Mid Atlantic and southern New England coasts, but subfreezing temperatures may persist inland through the morning. ..Dean.. 01/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...LWX... LAT...LON 39497504 38747620 38747652 39137660 39727603 41187450 42147322 42607220 42787134 42627089 42347101 41377217 40937321 40307434 39497504 Read more View the full article

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0637 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... A couple brief tornadoes and isolated damaging winds are possible this morning into the afternoon over parts of the Florida Peninsula. ...Synopsis... Broadly cyclonic flow in mid/upper levels will be maintained over most of the CONUS, as a large cyclone meanders over the southern Hudson Bay/northern ON region. A basal shortwave trough was apparent in moisture-channel imagery from Lower MI across southern IL to the KS/OK border vicinity. By 00Z, this perturbation is expected to elongate further and pivot to northern NY, PA, WV, parts of KY/TN, and AR. By 12Z tomorrow, the trough should be over or just offshore of the coast from New England to northeastern NC, arching inland to the TRI area. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed two primary fronts: 1. A warm to quasistationary boundary extended from a low near Cape San Blas southeastward across central FL to a weak low near XMR, then northeastward approximately along the western part of the Gulf Stream past the NC Outer Banks. This boundary should drift northward over land through much of the day, potentially reaching north-central FL before being overtaken by the next front. 2. An Arctic cold front was drawn from the San Blas low northeastward to another low between HKY-AVL, and southwestward across the central Gulf. This front will move offshore of all the Atlantic Coast by 00Z, except central FL. By 12Z, the cold front should clear the entire FL Peninsula and Keys. ...FL Peninsula... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to move roughly eastward across the area, both from the Gulf on either side of the southern front, and from development over land along and south of that boundary. Isolated damaging to severe gusts are possible -- mainly near and south of the southern front where surface-based inflow is expected. A tornado also may occur in the same regime -- especially closer to the Atlantic Coast where more potential exists for storm-scale interaction with sea-breeze and/or favorably aligned outflow boundaries. For this outlook cycle, unconditional severe probability bins overall are kept at marginal categorical level, but appear nonuniform within that. Overall, they would appear somewhat greater to the east and lower to the west, if continuous/heatmap-style coloring were available. Activity over the central and especially eastern parts of the peninsula -- along and south of the southern then combined front -- will have access to a richly moist boundary layer with the longest time frame for diurnal destabilization of the inflow layer. Somewhat muted diabatic heating through cloud cover will slow the pace of destabilization, but still yield favorably uninhibited buoyancy. With surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F, that heating should offset weak low/middle-level lapse rates enough to yield MLCAPE generally in the 1000-1500 J/kg range. With little change in either heights or height gradient aloft, mid/ upper-level winds and deep shear should remain favorable through the day, albeit with some decrease as winds veer near the surface. Supercell and bowing/clustered modes are possible within the band(s) of convection. However, the veering will lead to gradual shrinking/ straightening of hodographs during the period of daytime destabilization (offsetting factors). This will make tornado potential conditional on more storm- to local-scale effects. Activity should weaken with southward extent this evening as the combined boundary moves into a nocturnally stabilizing airmass, with still more veering of near-surface flow. ..Edwards/Dean.. 01/16/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0637 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... A couple brief tornadoes and isolated damaging winds are possible this morning into the afternoon over parts of the Florida Peninsula. ...Synopsis... Broadly cyclonic flow in mid/upper levels will be maintained over most of the CONUS, as a large cyclone meanders over the southern Hudson Bay/northern ON region. A basal shortwave trough was apparent in moisture-channel imagery from Lower MI across southern IL to the KS/OK border vicinity. By 00Z, this perturbation is expected to elongate further and pivot to northern NY, PA, WV, parts of KY/TN, and AR. By 12Z tomorrow, the trough should be over or just offshore of the coast from New England to northeastern NC, arching inland to the TRI area. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed two primary fronts: 1. A warm to quasistationary boundary extended from a low near Cape San Blas southeastward across central FL to a weak low near XMR, then northeastward approximately along the western part of the Gulf Stream past the NC Outer Banks. This boundary should drift northward over land through much of the day, potentially reaching north-central FL before being overtaken by the next front. 2. An Arctic cold front was drawn from the San Blas low northeastward to another low between HKY-AVL, and southwestward across the central Gulf. This front will move offshore of all the Atlantic Coast by 00Z, except central FL. By 12Z, the cold front should clear the entire FL Peninsula and Keys. ...FL Peninsula... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to move roughly eastward across the area, both from the Gulf on either side of the southern front, and from development over land along and south of that boundary. Isolated damaging to severe gusts are possible -- mainly near and south of the southern front where surface-based inflow is expected. A tornado also may occur in the same regime -- especially closer to the Atlantic Coast where more potential exists for storm-scale interaction with sea-breeze and/or favorably aligned outflow boundaries. For this outlook cycle, unconditional severe probability bins overall are kept at marginal categorical level, but appear nonuniform within that. Overall, they would appear somewhat greater to the east and lower to the west, if continuous/heatmap-style coloring were available. Activity over the central and especially eastern parts of the peninsula -- along and south of the southern then combined front -- will have access to a richly moist boundary layer with the longest time frame for diurnal destabilization of the inflow layer. Somewhat muted diabatic heating through cloud cover will slow the pace of destabilization, but still yield favorably uninhibited buoyancy. With surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F, that heating should offset weak low/middle-level lapse rates enough to yield MLCAPE generally in the 1000-1500 J/kg range. With little change in either heights or height gradient aloft, mid/ upper-level winds and deep shear should remain favorable through the day, albeit with some decrease as winds veer near the surface. Supercell and bowing/clustered modes are possible within the band(s) of convection. However, the veering will lead to gradual shrinking/ straightening of hodographs during the period of daytime destabilization (offsetting factors). This will make tornado potential conditional on more storm- to local-scale effects. Activity should weaken with southward extent this evening as the combined boundary moves into a nocturnally stabilizing airmass, with still more veering of near-surface flow. ..Edwards/Dean.. 01/16/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0637 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... A couple brief tornadoes and isolated damaging winds are possible this morning into the afternoon over parts of the Florida Peninsula. ...Synopsis... Broadly cyclonic flow in mid/upper levels will be maintained over most of the CONUS, as a large cyclone meanders over the southern Hudson Bay/northern ON region. A basal shortwave trough was apparent in moisture-channel imagery from Lower MI across southern IL to the KS/OK border vicinity. By 00Z, this perturbation is expected to elongate further and pivot to northern NY, PA, WV, parts of KY/TN, and AR. By 12Z tomorrow, the trough should be over or just offshore of the coast from New England to northeastern NC, arching inland to the TRI area. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed two primary fronts: 1. A warm to quasistationary boundary extended from a low near Cape San Blas southeastward across central FL to a weak low near XMR, then northeastward approximately along the western part of the Gulf Stream past the NC Outer Banks. This boundary should drift northward over land through much of the day, potentially reaching north-central FL before being overtaken by the next front. 2. An Arctic cold front was drawn from the San Blas low northeastward to another low between HKY-AVL, and southwestward across the central Gulf. This front will move offshore of all the Atlantic Coast by 00Z, except central FL. By 12Z, the cold front should clear the entire FL Peninsula and Keys. ...FL Peninsula... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to move roughly eastward across the area, both from the Gulf on either side of the southern front, and from development over land along and south of that boundary. Isolated damaging to severe gusts are possible -- mainly near and south of the southern front where surface-based inflow is expected. A tornado also may occur in the same regime -- especially closer to the Atlantic Coast where more potential exists for storm-scale interaction with sea-breeze and/or favorably aligned outflow boundaries. For this outlook cycle, unconditional severe probability bins overall are kept at marginal categorical level, but appear nonuniform within that. Overall, they would appear somewhat greater to the east and lower to the west, if continuous/heatmap-style coloring were available. Activity over the central and especially eastern parts of the peninsula -- along and south of the southern then combined front -- will have access to a richly moist boundary layer with the longest time frame for diurnal destabilization of the inflow layer. Somewhat muted diabatic heating through cloud cover will slow the pace of destabilization, but still yield favorably uninhibited buoyancy. With surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F, that heating should offset weak low/middle-level lapse rates enough to yield MLCAPE generally in the 1000-1500 J/kg range. With little change in either heights or height gradient aloft, mid/ upper-level winds and deep shear should remain favorable through the day, albeit with some decrease as winds veer near the surface. Supercell and bowing/clustered modes are possible within the band(s) of convection. However, the veering will lead to gradual shrinking/ straightening of hodographs during the period of daytime destabilization (offsetting factors). This will make tornado potential conditional on more storm- to local-scale effects. Activity should weaken with southward extent this evening as the combined boundary moves into a nocturnally stabilizing airmass, with still more veering of near-surface flow. ..Edwards/Dean.. 01/16/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0637 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... A couple brief tornadoes and isolated damaging winds are possible this morning into the afternoon over parts of the Florida Peninsula. ...Synopsis... Broadly cyclonic flow in mid/upper levels will be maintained over most of the CONUS, as a large cyclone meanders over the southern Hudson Bay/northern ON region. A basal shortwave trough was apparent in moisture-channel imagery from Lower MI across southern IL to the KS/OK border vicinity. By 00Z, this perturbation is expected to elongate further and pivot to northern NY, PA, WV, parts of KY/TN, and AR. By 12Z tomorrow, the trough should be over or just offshore of the coast from New England to northeastern NC, arching inland to the TRI area. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed two primary fronts: 1. A warm to quasistationary boundary extended from a low near Cape San Blas southeastward across central FL to a weak low near XMR, then northeastward approximately along the western part of the Gulf Stream past the NC Outer Banks. This boundary should drift northward over land through much of the day, potentially reaching north-central FL before being overtaken by the next front. 2. An Arctic cold front was drawn from the San Blas low northeastward to another low between HKY-AVL, and southwestward across the central Gulf. This front will move offshore of all the Atlantic Coast by 00Z, except central FL. By 12Z, the cold front should clear the entire FL Peninsula and Keys. ...FL Peninsula... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to move roughly eastward across the area, both from the Gulf on either side of the southern front, and from development over land along and south of that boundary. Isolated damaging to severe gusts are possible -- mainly near and south of the southern front where surface-based inflow is expected. A tornado also may occur in the same regime -- especially closer to the Atlantic Coast where more potential exists for storm-scale interaction with sea-breeze and/or favorably aligned outflow boundaries. For this outlook cycle, unconditional severe probability bins overall are kept at marginal categorical level, but appear nonuniform within that. Overall, they would appear somewhat greater to the east and lower to the west, if continuous/heatmap-style coloring were available. Activity over the central and especially eastern parts of the peninsula -- along and south of the southern then combined front -- will have access to a richly moist boundary layer with the longest time frame for diurnal destabilization of the inflow layer. Somewhat muted diabatic heating through cloud cover will slow the pace of destabilization, but still yield favorably uninhibited buoyancy. With surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F, that heating should offset weak low/middle-level lapse rates enough to yield MLCAPE generally in the 1000-1500 J/kg range. With little change in either heights or height gradient aloft, mid/ upper-level winds and deep shear should remain favorable through the day, albeit with some decrease as winds veer near the surface. Supercell and bowing/clustered modes are possible within the band(s) of convection. However, the veering will lead to gradual shrinking/ straightening of hodographs during the period of daytime destabilization (offsetting factors). This will make tornado potential conditional on more storm- to local-scale effects. Activity should weaken with southward extent this evening as the combined boundary moves into a nocturnally stabilizing airmass, with still more veering of near-surface flow. ..Edwards/Dean.. 01/16/2024 Read more View the full article

Wind Chill Advisory issued January 16 at 6:56AM EST until January 17 at 10:00AM EST by NWSView the full article

Flood Warning issued January 16 at 6:01AM EST until January 17 at 5:48AM EST by NWSView the full article

Flood Warning issued January 16 at 6:00AM EST until January 17 at 1:40AM EST by NWSView the full article