NorthGeorgiaWX

WW 0098 Status Updates STATUS REPORT ON WW 98 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE CRP TO 20 NE CRP TO VCT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0408 ..MOSIER..04/10/24 ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...HGX...BRO... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 98 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC007-041-051-057-185-391-477-100840- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARANSAS BRAZOS BURLESON CALHOUN GRIMES REFUGIO WASHINGTON GMZ155-236-237-250-255-100840- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD TX OUT 20 NM COPANO ARANSAS AND REDFISH BAYS SAN ANTONIO MESQUITE AND ESPIRITU SANTO BAYS COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM Read more View the full article

WW 0098 Status Updates STATUS REPORT ON WW 98 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE CRP TO 20 NE CRP TO VCT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0408 ..MOSIER..04/10/24 ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...HGX...BRO... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 98 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC007-041-051-057-185-391-477-100840- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARANSAS BRAZOS BURLESON CALHOUN GRIMES REFUGIO WASHINGTON GMZ155-236-237-250-255-100840- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD TX OUT 20 NM COPANO ARANSAS AND REDFISH BAYS SAN ANTONIO MESQUITE AND ESPIRITU SANTO BAYS COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM Read more View the full article

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Friday. ...East... Deep surface cyclone near Lake Huron at 12Z Friday should occlude and slowly weaken as it continues northeastward into western Quebec. The arcing occluded front across parts of the Northeast may be a focus for low-topped convection during the late morning to early afternoon. Surface-based destabilization appears to be rather limited, but its plausible that scant to meager buoyancy might develop over the eastern NY vicinity. Low to deep-layer wind profiles are conditionally favorable for organized updrafts and this corridor will need to be monitored in later outlooks for a potential cat 1-MRGL risk highlight. ...West... An amplified shortwave trough will approach but remain west of the CA coast through 12Z Saturday. While the bulk of PW increase will largely be confined to parts of CA and the OR Pacific Coast, modest moistening should occur within the deep-layer southwesterly flow regime, west of the mid-level ridge that will become centered across the High Plains. Scant to meager surface-based buoyancy is expected by Friday afternoon and this should support isolated to scattered high-based, low-topped thunderstorms from the Sierra NV across the northern Rockies. A very isolated severe wind gust is possible given the steep lapse-rate environment, but an organized severe threat appears unlikely. ..Grams.. 04/10/2024 Read more View the full article

Flood Watch issued April 10 at 2:56AM EDT until April 11 at 2:00PM EDT by NWS Tallahassee FLView the full article

Flood Watch issued April 10 at 2:56AM EDT until April 11 at 2:00PM EDT by NWS Tallahassee FLView the full article

Rip Current Statement issued April 10 at 2:30AM EDT until April 11 at 4:00AM EDT by NWS Jacksonville FLView the full article

Flood Warning issued April 9 at 8:57PM EDT until April 12 at 2:00AM EDT by NWS Jacksonville FLView the full article

MD 0396 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL TX Mesoscale Discussion 0396 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Areas affected...Portions of northwest into central TX Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 091630Z - 091900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms posing a threat for mainly large hail should gradually increase in coverage through early afternoon. Trends are being monitored for possible watch issuance. DISCUSSION...16Z surface observations show a front draped across west into north-central TX, with a dryline extending south from the front towards the Big Bend vicinity. Occasional supercells have been occurring this morning to the north of the front across western north TX, with mainly a large hail threat but occasional measured severe wind gusts too. Recent radar and visible satellite trends indicate another thunderstorm has developed north of San Angelo near the front/dryline intersection. The airmass downstream appears favorable for supercells, with moderate instability and strong deep-layer shear likely to support updraft organization. As ascent associated with the upper low over the Southwest and attendant mid-level jet nosing into the southern High Plains continues to overspread the warm sector, most high-resolution guidance shows additional supercells developing through early afternoon. Given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and elongated/nearly straight hodographs at mid/upper levels, scattered large to very large hail (1.5-2.5 inches in diameter) should be the main severe threat. Isolated strong to locally severe winds may also occur with any convective downdrafts. Trends will be monitored through the rest of the morning and into early afternoon for signs of additional robust thunderstorm development, which may prompt eventual watch issuance. ..Gleason/Thompson.. 04/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...MAF... LAT...LON 31800099 32100070 32490019 32839970 32889909 32639864 31919857 31279877 30739924 30420006 30680080 31800099 Read more View the full article

MD 0398 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 94... FOR PORTIONS OF EAST TX INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN LA Mesoscale Discussion 0398 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Areas affected...Portions of east TX into western/northern LA Concerning...Tornado Watch 94... Valid 091852Z - 092015Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 94 continues. SUMMARY...Some threat for damaging winds and perhaps a couple tornadoes may continue eastward into east Texas and western/northern Louisiana. A downstream watch is being considered. DISCUSSION...A small bowing cluster/MCV has recently developed across east-central TX along or perhaps just north of the surface boundary. Gradual airmass recovery is occurring downstream across east TX into western/northern LA, where surface temperatures have mostly warmed into the 70s amid persistent easterly near-surface flow. Weak MLCAPE coupled with strong deep-layer shear may be sufficient for continued organization to the small cluster as it moves eastward through the rest of the afternoon. Assuming sufficient destabilization can occur to support truly surface-based convection, then damaging winds may be the primary severe threat. Sufficient low-level shear is also present along the boundary to support an isolated tornado threat, especially if any supercells can develop ahead of the ongoing cluster. Depending on convective trends, a downstream watch may be needed for parts of east TX into western/northern/LA. ..Gleason/Thompson.. 04/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD... LAT...LON 32149585 32399522 32449274 32239212 31499206 31289244 31109442 31269615 31669589 32149585 Read more View the full article

WW 0094 Status Updates STATUS REPORT ON WW 94 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0397 ..WEINMAN..04/09/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 94 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC001-021-027-031-041-051-053-055-091-099-145-161-187-209-213- 225-281-287-289-293-309-313-331-349-395-453-491-091940- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON BASTROP BELL BLANCO BRAZOS BURLESON BURNET CALDWELL COMAL CORYELL FALLS FREESTONE GUADALUPE HAYS HENDERSON HOUSTON LAMPASAS LEE LEON LIMESTONE MCLENNAN MADISON MILAM NAVARRO ROBERTSON TRAVIS WILLIAMSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more View the full article

WW 94 TORNADO TX 091440Z - 092200Z URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 94 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 940 AM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central Texas * Effective this Tuesday morning and afternoon from 940 AM until 500 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Several thunderstorm clusters, including a mix of supercells and bowing line segments, are expected along a stalled front across central Texas through the afternoon. More isolated supercell development will be possible later this morning into early this afternoon into the I-35 corridor closer to Austin. The storm environment will support the potential for large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter, damaging gusts of 60-70 mph, and potentially a few tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles west of Austin TX to 140 miles east northeast of Temple TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 25025. ...Thompson Read more View the full article

Flood Watch issued April 9 at 1:09PM CDT until April 11 at 1:00PM CDT by NWS Tallahassee FLView the full article

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EASTERN LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Widespread severe thunderstorms are forecast beginning Wednesday morning across parts of the central Gulf Coast States. The potential will exist for several tornadoes, a few of which may be strong (EF2+), and widespread damaging winds, some of which may be particularly damaging. ...Synopsis... An upper low will move eastward across northern Texas during the day, becoming an open wave by 00Z as it nears the ArkLaTex. Ahead of the upper trough, cooling aloft will gradually push east toward the lower MS valley, with increasing midlevel southwesterlies of 60-70 kt. The upper wave will continue to lose amplitude through Thursday morning as it approaches the Appalachians. Meanwhile, a 40-50 kt southerly low-level jet will increase through the period to 60-70, aiding both shear and moisture advection. At the surface, a low is forecast to remain close to the Sabine Valley through late afternoon, but will become mobile during the evening and overnight as it translates across MS and into Middle TN by 12Z Thursday. During the day, a convectively enhanced front will extend northeastward from the Sabine low, into southeast AR/northwest MS. Widespread rain and storms are likely to be ongoing near this front early on Wednesday, with associated evolution playing critical roles downstream during the day. Overnight, a cold front will progress east into southern AL and the western FL Panhandle, with secondary tornado threat possible. ...LA...MS...AL...western FL Panhandle... Early on Wednesday, storms are forecast to be ongoing from much of LA into southeast AR and expanding into MS, in a zone of rich low-level moisture. This area will be quite unstable with 2000-3000 J/kg MUCAPE common south of any existing clusters or outflows, and deep-layer shear will favor long-lived severe storms. Both damaging bows and supercells will be possible area-wide, with a strong SRH gradient near/east of the MS River supporting rotation and tornado risk. Evolution may be complex due to early day storms, but any existing MCS may proceed throughout the day producing damaging winds. Supercells will be more likely during the afternoon, possibly on the southwestern flank of any existing outflow boundaries. Diurnal warming as well as continued moisture advection may also support a few supercells within a growing area of warm advection precipitation east/southeast of any boundaries. ...Southern AL into the FL Panhandle Overnight... Storms are likely to consolidate along the cold front overnight, from the Gulf of Mexico northward into southern AL and perhaps southwest GA. Shear will remain quite favorable for supercells and tornado threat, with the main mitigating factor being possible antecedent convection and effects of outflow/air mass stabilization. Even so, it appears likely that a wedge of air mass recovery will develop just ahead of the line of storms, with periodic supercells and tornadoes possible. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible given effective SRH over 400 m2/s2. ..Jewell.. 04/09/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM CENTRAL TX INTO WESTERN LA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely today across much of Texas into the lower Mississippi River Valley. A few tornadoes and an isolated strong tornado or two, large to very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter, and severe gusts of 60-75 mph will be possible. ...TX/LA through tonight... A midlevel low over northern Mexico will move eastward toward west TX later today into tonight, with exit regions of embedded jet streaks persisting over central/east TX through tonight. Only weak surface cyclogenesis is expected across central/east TX along a stalled front through tonight, while widespread ongoing convection will persist through the period from central TX eastward into LA. Regional 12z soundings revealed a broad area with rich low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the low 70s) beneath a elevated mixed layer with midlevel lapse rates greater than 8 C/km. As a result, MLCAPE of 2000-3500 J/kg will continue along and south of the rain-reinforced front through tonight from central into east TX, with slightly lower buoyancy farther to the east in LA. Low-level mass response will not be particularly large given only weak cyclogenesis in TX, though there could be some increase in low-level shear later this evening into tonight from east TX into LA. Widespread convection and resultant messy convective modes will be the main concern through the period. Observed and forecast hodographs will favor embedded supercells capable of producing a few tornadoes, isolated very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter, and damaging gusts of 60-75 mph. Longer/straighter hodographs and closer proximity to the steep lapse rate plume suggest that the hail threat will be greatest across central TX with the more isolated/cellular storm mode. The wind threat will be greater this evening into tonight from east TX into LA, based largely on upscale growth of storms into bowing segments along the stalled front. There will also be some potential for additional storm development tonight across south central TX along the west edge of the richer low-level moisture and with the ejecting midlevel trough, with a conditional threat for very large hail and damaging winds. ...Northern OH area this afternoon/evening... The glancing influence of a midlevel trough moving over Lower MI and a surface cold front could focus isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening across northern OH. Surface heating, a modest increase in low-level moisture and wind profiles with mainly straight hodographs will support some potential for isolated large hail/wind damage for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Squitieri.. 04/09/2024 Read more View the full article

MD 0395 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EAST TX INTO NORTHWESTERN LA Mesoscale Discussion 0395 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0848 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Areas affected...Portions of central/east TX into northwestern LA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 091348Z - 091545Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...A watch may be needed as the threat for tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds gradually increases this morning. DISCUSSION...Warm advection associated with a 35-45 kt southerly low-level jet, along with ascent attendant to the left exit region of a southwesterly mid/upper-level jet, is aiding convection across parts of central/east TX into northwestern LA. Some of this activity across central TX is occurring near a convectively reinforced outflow boundary, with a rich low-level airmass present along/south of this boundary. Steep mid-level lapse rates are supporting 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE in central TX, even though daytime heating remains muted thus far, with lesser instability into east TX and northwestern LA. Still, strong deep-layer shear of 50+ kt will foster updraft organization and supercell potential. Large to very large hail will be a concern with these supercells as they spread east-northeastward this morning. An increasing potential for severe/damaging winds may be realized if a cluster forms along the outflow boundary/front. Sufficient low-level shear is also present for low-level updraft rotation and some tornado threat. Watch issuance may be needed if convection continues to increase in coverage and intensity across central TX. ..Gleason/Thompson.. 04/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... LAT...LON 30029806 30829766 31659640 31939477 32179397 32159343 31369333 30959394 29939603 29559685 29579786 30029806 Read more View the full article

WW 0094 Status Updates STATUS REPORT ON WW 87 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E RZZ TO 35 SE RIC TO 10 SSW NHK TO 10 NW DOV. ..LYONS..04/03/24 ATTN...WFO...PHI...LWX...AKQ...RNK...RAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 87 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-005-032240- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT SUSSEX MDC011-019-039-045-047-032240- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAROLINE DORCHESTER SOMERSET WICOMICO WORCESTER NCC073-091-032240- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GATES HERTFORD Read more View the full article

WW 94 TORNADO TX 091440Z - 092200Z URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 94 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 940 AM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central Texas * Effective this Tuesday morning and afternoon from 940 AM until 500 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Several thunderstorm clusters, including a mix of supercells and bowing line segments, are expected along a stalled front across central Texas through the afternoon. More isolated supercell development will be possible later this morning into early this afternoon into the I-35 corridor closer to Austin. The storm environment will support the potential for large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter, damaging gusts of 60-70 mph, and potentially a few tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles west of Austin TX to 140 miles east northeast of Temple TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 25025. ...Thompson Read more View the full article

Flood Warning issued April 9 at 9:12AM EDT by NWS Jacksonville FLView the full article

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet streak will align with northwesterly low-level flow in the wake of a surface low across Texas on Wednesday. This will result in very strong northwesterly flow across much of Texas with sustained winds up to 30 mph expected near the Red River and into southern Texas, beneath the strongest mid-level flow. In this same region, relative humidity of 20 to 25 percent is expected. These conditions will combine for critical meteorological fire weather conditions. However, have only added an Elevated delineation, as fuel status remains questionable across portions of southern Texas. Fuels greened up across this region earlier this spring, but there has been minimal precipitation over the past 2 weeks. An additional complicating factor is the potential for wetting rain on Day 1 (Tuesday/Tuesday night) which would significantly impact fuel receptiveness across some portions of the area. Therefore, an Elevated delineation seems warranted at this time. ..Bentley.. 04/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

Hydrologic Outlook issued April 8 at 3:55PM EDT by NWS Tallahassee FLView the full article

Flood Warning issued April 8 at 8:51AM EDT by NWS Jacksonville FLView the full article

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 AM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms should develop from mid afternoon through tonight across a large portion of the southern Plains into the Mississippi Delta region. Large to giant hail is the main threat, especially over northwest Texas, though a few tornadoes and severe gusts are also possible in an area extending east into northern Louisiana. ...Synopsis... Morning water-vapor imagery shows a positively-tilted mid-level trough over the Desert Southwest/northwest Mexico. This mid-level trough will amplify as it moves across the Southwest and northern Mexico. An associated belt of strong southwesterly flow will extend from the base of the trough across the southern Great Plains and into the lower MS Valley. A cyclone will develop in West Texas and deepen through the period as southerly low-level flow advects rich moisture into TX/LA [near the record high lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio observed this early in the year at the Brownsville raob site (17.2 g/kg)]. A warm front will advance northward to the Red River by early evening. A cold front analyzed this morning moving south through the TX Panhandle/western OK will become stationary later today. ...Northwest Texas into north-central Texas... Strong heating on the northwest periphery of rich low-level moisture will weaken the cap across northwest TX by mid afternoon. Forecast soundings indicate a moderately unstable airmass (1000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) will continue to destabilize into the evening as south-southeasterly flow strengthens and advects 50s (west) to mid 60s (near I-35) surface dewpoints into the region by early evening. Veering and strengthening flow with height (100+ kt at 250 mb) will favor supercells as the initial convective mode. Large to giant hail (3-4 inches in diameter) is possible in addition to some tornado risk towards evening. Some consolidation into a cluster/MCS may occur during the evening across north-central TX with some risk for all 3 hazards. ...East Texas into the ArkLaTex... Moderate to strong instability is expected to develop across east Texas and into western Louisiana this afternoon as upper 60s to near 70s dewpoints advect northward. Despite a solar eclipse across this region, its impact on the overall severe weather threat will likely remain minimal. Only moderate warming will be sufficient to erode inhibition across the region with a gradual strengthening of southerly 850-mb flow and isentropic ascent as the primary focus for storm development by mid to late afternoon. Strong instability and shear is expected and will support supercells capable of large to very large hail. However, there are some concerns about storm interference and updraft longevity. Initially, a warm nose around 700mb is evident on NAM/RAP forecast soundings which may limit more robust updraft development. This warm nose is forecast to erode by 23/00Z. However, by that time, widespread shower/thunderstorm development may be underway which could be a limiting factor to updraft longevity and a greater tornado/large hail threat. Some guidance suggests a MCS may develop out of the northwest/north-central Texas convection and move through northeast Texas during the overnight hours. This solution will greatly depend on the evolution of earlier convection and position of the convectively enhanced warm front by late evening. ...Texas Hill Country overnight... Increasing forcing for ascent via stronger mid-level height falls will overspread much of western/central Texas tonight. Continued moistening with mid-upper 60s deg F dewpoints beneath steep 700-500 lapse rates (8 deg C/km) will result in 2500 to 3000 J/kg MUCAPE. Elongated hodographs with 60-kt effective shear will promote supercells and mainly a risk for large to very large hail. Southerly 850-mb flow will increase overnight via a LLJ and act to augment initially limited hodographs. If a cluster organizes overnight (06-12z), a risk for severe gusts and perhaps a tornado could develop. Have extended Slight Risk equivalent wind/tornado probabilities southward for this potential scenario. ...West Texas early Tuesday... The dryline is expected to retreat into West Texas overnight with strong instability building back to near Midland early Tuesday morning. As strong upper forcing overspreads this region, at least isolated to scattered storms will probably develop on the western periphery of a strongly unstable/sheared environment. Have adjusted the some of the severe probabilities farther west where the progged western edge of moisture/buoyancy will be located. ..Smith/Mosier.. 04/08/2024 Read more View the full article

Flood Warning issued April 8 at 6:44AM EDT until April 10 at 2:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston SCView the full article

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Apr 7 23:46:01 UTC 2024.View the full article

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Sun Apr 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN TEXAS INTO EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms should develop from early afternoon Monday through Tuesday morning across a large portion of the southern Plains into the Mississippi Delta region. Large to very large hail is the main threat, especially over northwest Texas, though isolated tornadoes and severe wind gusts will also be possible. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen over the Desert Southwest, preceded by multiple embedded perturbations which are poised to traverse the southern Plains tomorrow/Monday. A broad belt of low-level moisture return will become established over the southern Plains during this period as colder mid-level temperatures overspread the south-central U.S., supporting at least moderate instability by afternoon. Multiple rounds of thunderstorms should occur across the southern Plains. The southerly low-level jet beneath strong mid-level westerlies will promote strong vertical wind shear over the warm sector, that in tandem with moderate instability will support some of the thunderstorms becoming strong to severe tomorrow afternoon and evening, with all severe hazards possible. ...Southern Plains... The first round of thunderstorms should initiate over portions of central TX by afternoon along the warm front. At least mid 60s F dewpoints, overspread by 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates, will boost MLCAPE to 1500-2500 J/kg. 30+ kts of south-southeasterly flow beneath 50+ kts of southwesterly 500 mb winds will support modestly curved low-level hodographs with mid/upper-level elongation, quantified by around 50 kts of effective bulk shear and at least 200 m2/s2 effective SRH. Multicells and supercells will form along the warm front with large hail and a few tornadoes the main threat. A few stones may exceed 2 inches in diameter. Meanwhile, low-level moisture will also advect northwestward into northwestern TX and extreme southwestern OK. Surface dewpoints should reach into the 50s F, and will be overspread by 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates, supporting over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE by afternoon peak heating. Strong vertical wind shear will also be in place, with elongated hodographs contributing to over 50 kts of effective bulk shear. Multicells and supercells will be the dominant modes of convection. The main threat will be large hail (multiple instances of 2+ inch diameter hail will be possible). Damaging gusts will also be possible and a tornado cannot be ruled out given modest low-level hodograph curvature, though the tornado threat should be tempered by limited low-level moisture. Later in the evening, storms should merge into clusters and small bowing segments, where a few damaging gusts will eventually become the main concern. ...Mississippi Delta Region... As the warm front moves north through the day, low-level warm-air and moisture advection will boost MUCAPE to over 1000 J/kg over portions of central LA into western MS. Elevated convection should develop during the afternoon in the warm-air advection regime, where 7 C/km mid-level lapse rates and elongated hodographs will encourage multicell/supercell development. Large hail will be the main threat with the more dominant elevated supercells. ..Squitieri.. 04/07/2024 Read more View the full article