NorthGeorgiaWX

Severe Weather Statement issued January 09 at 8:31AM EST until January 09 at 8:44PM EST by NWSView the full article

Severe Weather Statement issued January 09 at 8:31AM EST until January 10 at 8:21PM EST by NWSView the full article

Special Weather Statement issued January 09 at 8:27AM EST by NWSView the full article

Special Weather Statement issued January 09 at 8:25AM EST by NWSView the full article

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0712 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... CORRECTED FOR FL THUNDERSTORM LINE. ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorm development is possible Thursday night across parts of central and eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, where storms may increasingly pose a risk for severe hail, wind and tornadoes prior to daybreak Friday. ...Discussion... To the east of persistent amplified mid/upper ridging within the split flow across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific, one notable short wave impulse of northern Canadian Arctic origins is forecast to dig southeast of the Canadian Rockies, into the northern U.S. intermountain region and Rockies by late Thursday night. Downstream of this perturbation, another short wave trough, of northern mid-latitude Pacific origins, is forecast to dig through the Southwestern international border area, before rapidly pivoting east of the southern Rockies/northern Mexican Plateau through the southern Great Plains by the end of the period. As stronger mid/upper forcing for ascent associated with the lead perturbation approaches the Ark-La-Tex vicinity, it still appears that a surface low may begin to consolidate within deepening surface troughing across the southern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley. Timing of the onset of more rapid deepening is becoming a bit more unclear, but still seems probable prior to 12Z Friday. Once this occurs, a more substantive inland influx of low-level moisture, off a still modifying boundary-layer over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, is expected to contribute to increasing near-surface or surface-based destabilization. This appears likely to be aided by steepening lapse rates associated with mid-level cooling, in the exit region of an intense jet streak (northwesterly to westerly at 100-120 kt around 500 mb). Coincident with strengthening southerly lower-level flow (in excess of 50 kt) across the lower Mississippi Valley by 12Z Friday, rapidly intensifying thunderstorms posing increasing severe weather potential is possible by late Thursday night, if not earlier. The mid/upper forcing for ascent may contribute to thunderstorm initiation as early and far west as late Thursday evening near the (roughly) I-35 corridor of central Texas. This may gradually evolve into an upscale growing and organizing cluster across eastern Texas into western Louisiana and Arkansas, with an additional area of downstream warm advection driven supercell development possible closer to the Mississippi River, by the end of the period. ..Kerr.. 01/09/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0712 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... CORRECTED FOR FL THUNDERSTORM LINE. ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorm development is possible Thursday night across parts of central and eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, where storms may increasingly pose a risk for severe hail, wind and tornadoes prior to daybreak Friday. ...Discussion... To the east of persistent amplified mid/upper ridging within the split flow across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific, one notable short wave impulse of northern Canadian Arctic origins is forecast to dig southeast of the Canadian Rockies, into the northern U.S. intermountain region and Rockies by late Thursday night. Downstream of this perturbation, another short wave trough, of northern mid-latitude Pacific origins, is forecast to dig through the Southwestern international border area, before rapidly pivoting east of the southern Rockies/northern Mexican Plateau through the southern Great Plains by the end of the period. As stronger mid/upper forcing for ascent associated with the lead perturbation approaches the Ark-La-Tex vicinity, it still appears that a surface low may begin to consolidate within deepening surface troughing across the southern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley. Timing of the onset of more rapid deepening is becoming a bit more unclear, but still seems probable prior to 12Z Friday. Once this occurs, a more substantive inland influx of low-level moisture, off a still modifying boundary-layer over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, is expected to contribute to increasing near-surface or surface-based destabilization. This appears likely to be aided by steepening lapse rates associated with mid-level cooling, in the exit region of an intense jet streak (northwesterly to westerly at 100-120 kt around 500 mb). Coincident with strengthening southerly lower-level flow (in excess of 50 kt) across the lower Mississippi Valley by 12Z Friday, rapidly intensifying thunderstorms posing increasing severe weather potential is possible by late Thursday night, if not earlier. The mid/upper forcing for ascent may contribute to thunderstorm initiation as early and far west as late Thursday evening near the (roughly) I-35 corridor of central Texas. This may gradually evolve into an upscale growing and organizing cluster across eastern Texas into western Louisiana and Arkansas, with an additional area of downstream warm advection driven supercell development possible closer to the Mississippi River, by the end of the period. ..Kerr.. 01/09/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0712 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... CORRECTED FOR FL THUNDERSTORM LINE. ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorm development is possible Thursday night across parts of central and eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, where storms may increasingly pose a risk for severe hail, wind and tornadoes prior to daybreak Friday. ...Discussion... To the east of persistent amplified mid/upper ridging within the split flow across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific, one notable short wave impulse of northern Canadian Arctic origins is forecast to dig southeast of the Canadian Rockies, into the northern U.S. intermountain region and Rockies by late Thursday night. Downstream of this perturbation, another short wave trough, of northern mid-latitude Pacific origins, is forecast to dig through the Southwestern international border area, before rapidly pivoting east of the southern Rockies/northern Mexican Plateau through the southern Great Plains by the end of the period. As stronger mid/upper forcing for ascent associated with the lead perturbation approaches the Ark-La-Tex vicinity, it still appears that a surface low may begin to consolidate within deepening surface troughing across the southern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley. Timing of the onset of more rapid deepening is becoming a bit more unclear, but still seems probable prior to 12Z Friday. Once this occurs, a more substantive inland influx of low-level moisture, off a still modifying boundary-layer over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, is expected to contribute to increasing near-surface or surface-based destabilization. This appears likely to be aided by steepening lapse rates associated with mid-level cooling, in the exit region of an intense jet streak (northwesterly to westerly at 100-120 kt around 500 mb). Coincident with strengthening southerly lower-level flow (in excess of 50 kt) across the lower Mississippi Valley by 12Z Friday, rapidly intensifying thunderstorms posing increasing severe weather potential is possible by late Thursday night, if not earlier. The mid/upper forcing for ascent may contribute to thunderstorm initiation as early and far west as late Thursday evening near the (roughly) I-35 corridor of central Texas. This may gradually evolve into an upscale growing and organizing cluster across eastern Texas into western Louisiana and Arkansas, with an additional area of downstream warm advection driven supercell development possible closer to the Mississippi River, by the end of the period. ..Kerr.. 01/09/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0712 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... CORRECTED FOR FL THUNDERSTORM LINE. ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorm development is possible Thursday night across parts of central and eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, where storms may increasingly pose a risk for severe hail, wind and tornadoes prior to daybreak Friday. ...Discussion... To the east of persistent amplified mid/upper ridging within the split flow across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific, one notable short wave impulse of northern Canadian Arctic origins is forecast to dig southeast of the Canadian Rockies, into the northern U.S. intermountain region and Rockies by late Thursday night. Downstream of this perturbation, another short wave trough, of northern mid-latitude Pacific origins, is forecast to dig through the Southwestern international border area, before rapidly pivoting east of the southern Rockies/northern Mexican Plateau through the southern Great Plains by the end of the period. As stronger mid/upper forcing for ascent associated with the lead perturbation approaches the Ark-La-Tex vicinity, it still appears that a surface low may begin to consolidate within deepening surface troughing across the southern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley. Timing of the onset of more rapid deepening is becoming a bit more unclear, but still seems probable prior to 12Z Friday. Once this occurs, a more substantive inland influx of low-level moisture, off a still modifying boundary-layer over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, is expected to contribute to increasing near-surface or surface-based destabilization. This appears likely to be aided by steepening lapse rates associated with mid-level cooling, in the exit region of an intense jet streak (northwesterly to westerly at 100-120 kt around 500 mb). Coincident with strengthening southerly lower-level flow (in excess of 50 kt) across the lower Mississippi Valley by 12Z Friday, rapidly intensifying thunderstorms posing increasing severe weather potential is possible by late Thursday night, if not earlier. The mid/upper forcing for ascent may contribute to thunderstorm initiation as early and far west as late Thursday evening near the (roughly) I-35 corridor of central Texas. This may gradually evolve into an upscale growing and organizing cluster across eastern Texas into western Louisiana and Arkansas, with an additional area of downstream warm advection driven supercell development possible closer to the Mississippi River, by the end of the period. ..Kerr.. 01/09/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0712 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... CORRECTED FOR FL THUNDERSTORM LINE. ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorm development is possible Thursday night across parts of central and eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, where storms may increasingly pose a risk for severe hail, wind and tornadoes prior to daybreak Friday. ...Discussion... To the east of persistent amplified mid/upper ridging within the split flow across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific, one notable short wave impulse of northern Canadian Arctic origins is forecast to dig southeast of the Canadian Rockies, into the northern U.S. intermountain region and Rockies by late Thursday night. Downstream of this perturbation, another short wave trough, of northern mid-latitude Pacific origins, is forecast to dig through the Southwestern international border area, before rapidly pivoting east of the southern Rockies/northern Mexican Plateau through the southern Great Plains by the end of the period. As stronger mid/upper forcing for ascent associated with the lead perturbation approaches the Ark-La-Tex vicinity, it still appears that a surface low may begin to consolidate within deepening surface troughing across the southern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley. Timing of the onset of more rapid deepening is becoming a bit more unclear, but still seems probable prior to 12Z Friday. Once this occurs, a more substantive inland influx of low-level moisture, off a still modifying boundary-layer over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, is expected to contribute to increasing near-surface or surface-based destabilization. This appears likely to be aided by steepening lapse rates associated with mid-level cooling, in the exit region of an intense jet streak (northwesterly to westerly at 100-120 kt around 500 mb). Coincident with strengthening southerly lower-level flow (in excess of 50 kt) across the lower Mississippi Valley by 12Z Friday, rapidly intensifying thunderstorms posing increasing severe weather potential is possible by late Thursday night, if not earlier. The mid/upper forcing for ascent may contribute to thunderstorm initiation as early and far west as late Thursday evening near the (roughly) I-35 corridor of central Texas. This may gradually evolve into an upscale growing and organizing cluster across eastern Texas into western Louisiana and Arkansas, with an additional area of downstream warm advection driven supercell development possible closer to the Mississippi River, by the end of the period. ..Kerr.. 01/09/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...FROM THE EASTERN GULF COAST TO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong), damaging to severe gusts and isolated hail are expected over parts of the Southeast, from the eastern Gulf Coast to the coastal Carolinas. ...Synopsis... The main mid/upper-level feature for this forecast will be a well- developed cyclone, initially centered over the KS/OK/MO tri-state region, along a synoptic-scale trough extending from MN to the Arklatex to near BRO. The 500-mb low is expected to move northeastward through the period, reaching to near HUF by 00Z and over southern ON late tonight. Meanwhile, the trailing trough will become more neutrally to slightly positively tilted, crossing AL around 00Z and moving offshore from NC around 12Z tomorrow. At the surface, a low was analyzed at 11Z near STL, with occluded front southeastward into AL, and cold front across southern AL, the western FL Panhandle, and the north-central Gulf. A warm front was drawn from south-central AL southeastward over the northeastern Gulf, then diffusely eastward over central FL and adjoining parts of the Atlantic. The warm front may shift/redevelop quickly northward today into northern FL and parts of GA, as well as reaching the Carolinas during the afternoon. The low should move erratically northeastward to southern Lake Michigan by 00Z, becoming more deeply occluded. In the meantime today, the cold front should sweep across much of the Southeast, extending from central/eastern NC south- southwestward across Atlantic waters to central FL by around 00Z. The cold front should continue to be preceded by a well-organized squall line. ...Southeast... A strong-severe squall line, with embedded bow/LEWP formations and sporadically tornadic meso/misovortices -- was evident over southeastern AL and the western FL Panhandle. Isolated supercells ahead of the line this morning, in the FL Panhandle and eventually into portions of southwestern GA -- will pose a tornado, wind and isolated severe-hail threat as well. Even for relatively short- lived tornadoes, fast translation can lengthen paths more than usual, and enhance potential damage intensity on one side to significant (EF2+) level. For more detailed near-term coverage, see SPC tornado watch 4 and associated mesoscale discussions. The main convective band should continue to produce damaging wind and occasional QLCS tornadoes as it moves eastward over the outlook area today. A relative min in forcing for discrete, warm-sector supercells, as well as in upstream boundary-layer theta-e available to the squall line, remain plausible, and account for a somewhat lower (but still well worth outlook coverage) all-hazard severe threat between the northeast Gulf Coast and Carolinas areas. Then potential is expected to ramp up again this afternoon into early evening as the activity nears the Atlantic Coast, and as warm/moist advection from a modifying Atlantic boundary layer supports increasing potential for oceanic supercells to reach the shore there. Warm-sector MLCAPE should reach the 1000-1500 J/kg range the next few hours in the FL Panhandle, and mid/late afternoon over portions of the coastal Carolinas and west-central/central FL. Otherwise, MLCAPE of 200-700 J/kg should be common over most of the outlook area just ahead of the QLCS. Vertical shear, by almost any common measure, will remain strong area-wide. 50-60-kt effective-shear magnitudes should be common, along with 35-50 kt vectors in the lowest km. Mass response to the progressive mid/upper cyclone and trough will continue to yield a 65-95-kt LLJ shifting east-northeastward across the preceding warm sector. This will contribute to effective SRH over 400 J/kg in the warm-frontal zone, and 200-500 J/kg in the warm sector. In addition to enlarging low-level hodographs, LLJ-associated momentum transfer from the intense winds just above the surface, in strong convective cores, may yield locally severe downdraft gusts, some perhaps reaching 65 kt. ..Edwards/Bentley.. 01/09/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...FROM THE EASTERN GULF COAST TO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong), damaging to severe gusts and isolated hail are expected over parts of the Southeast, from the eastern Gulf Coast to the coastal Carolinas. ...Synopsis... The main mid/upper-level feature for this forecast will be a well- developed cyclone, initially centered over the KS/OK/MO tri-state region, along a synoptic-scale trough extending from MN to the Arklatex to near BRO. The 500-mb low is expected to move northeastward through the period, reaching to near HUF by 00Z and over southern ON late tonight. Meanwhile, the trailing trough will become more neutrally to slightly positively tilted, crossing AL around 00Z and moving offshore from NC around 12Z tomorrow. At the surface, a low was analyzed at 11Z near STL, with occluded front southeastward into AL, and cold front across southern AL, the western FL Panhandle, and the north-central Gulf. A warm front was drawn from south-central AL southeastward over the northeastern Gulf, then diffusely eastward over central FL and adjoining parts of the Atlantic. The warm front may shift/redevelop quickly northward today into northern FL and parts of GA, as well as reaching the Carolinas during the afternoon. The low should move erratically northeastward to southern Lake Michigan by 00Z, becoming more deeply occluded. In the meantime today, the cold front should sweep across much of the Southeast, extending from central/eastern NC south- southwestward across Atlantic waters to central FL by around 00Z. The cold front should continue to be preceded by a well-organized squall line. ...Southeast... A strong-severe squall line, with embedded bow/LEWP formations and sporadically tornadic meso/misovortices -- was evident over southeastern AL and the western FL Panhandle. Isolated supercells ahead of the line this morning, in the FL Panhandle and eventually into portions of southwestern GA -- will pose a tornado, wind and isolated severe-hail threat as well. Even for relatively short- lived tornadoes, fast translation can lengthen paths more than usual, and enhance potential damage intensity on one side to significant (EF2+) level. For more detailed near-term coverage, see SPC tornado watch 4 and associated mesoscale discussions. The main convective band should continue to produce damaging wind and occasional QLCS tornadoes as it moves eastward over the outlook area today. A relative min in forcing for discrete, warm-sector supercells, as well as in upstream boundary-layer theta-e available to the squall line, remain plausible, and account for a somewhat lower (but still well worth outlook coverage) all-hazard severe threat between the northeast Gulf Coast and Carolinas areas. Then potential is expected to ramp up again this afternoon into early evening as the activity nears the Atlantic Coast, and as warm/moist advection from a modifying Atlantic boundary layer supports increasing potential for oceanic supercells to reach the shore there. Warm-sector MLCAPE should reach the 1000-1500 J/kg range the next few hours in the FL Panhandle, and mid/late afternoon over portions of the coastal Carolinas and west-central/central FL. Otherwise, MLCAPE of 200-700 J/kg should be common over most of the outlook area just ahead of the QLCS. Vertical shear, by almost any common measure, will remain strong area-wide. 50-60-kt effective-shear magnitudes should be common, along with 35-50 kt vectors in the lowest km. Mass response to the progressive mid/upper cyclone and trough will continue to yield a 65-95-kt LLJ shifting east-northeastward across the preceding warm sector. This will contribute to effective SRH over 400 J/kg in the warm-frontal zone, and 200-500 J/kg in the warm sector. In addition to enlarging low-level hodographs, LLJ-associated momentum transfer from the intense winds just above the surface, in strong convective cores, may yield locally severe downdraft gusts, some perhaps reaching 65 kt. ..Edwards/Bentley.. 01/09/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...FROM THE EASTERN GULF COAST TO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong), damaging to severe gusts and isolated hail are expected over parts of the Southeast, from the eastern Gulf Coast to the coastal Carolinas. ...Synopsis... The main mid/upper-level feature for this forecast will be a well- developed cyclone, initially centered over the KS/OK/MO tri-state region, along a synoptic-scale trough extending from MN to the Arklatex to near BRO. The 500-mb low is expected to move northeastward through the period, reaching to near HUF by 00Z and over southern ON late tonight. Meanwhile, the trailing trough will become more neutrally to slightly positively tilted, crossing AL around 00Z and moving offshore from NC around 12Z tomorrow. At the surface, a low was analyzed at 11Z near STL, with occluded front southeastward into AL, and cold front across southern AL, the western FL Panhandle, and the north-central Gulf. A warm front was drawn from south-central AL southeastward over the northeastern Gulf, then diffusely eastward over central FL and adjoining parts of the Atlantic. The warm front may shift/redevelop quickly northward today into northern FL and parts of GA, as well as reaching the Carolinas during the afternoon. The low should move erratically northeastward to southern Lake Michigan by 00Z, becoming more deeply occluded. In the meantime today, the cold front should sweep across much of the Southeast, extending from central/eastern NC south- southwestward across Atlantic waters to central FL by around 00Z. The cold front should continue to be preceded by a well-organized squall line. ...Southeast... A strong-severe squall line, with embedded bow/LEWP formations and sporadically tornadic meso/misovortices -- was evident over southeastern AL and the western FL Panhandle. Isolated supercells ahead of the line this morning, in the FL Panhandle and eventually into portions of southwestern GA -- will pose a tornado, wind and isolated severe-hail threat as well. Even for relatively short- lived tornadoes, fast translation can lengthen paths more than usual, and enhance potential damage intensity on one side to significant (EF2+) level. For more detailed near-term coverage, see SPC tornado watch 4 and associated mesoscale discussions. The main convective band should continue to produce damaging wind and occasional QLCS tornadoes as it moves eastward over the outlook area today. A relative min in forcing for discrete, warm-sector supercells, as well as in upstream boundary-layer theta-e available to the squall line, remain plausible, and account for a somewhat lower (but still well worth outlook coverage) all-hazard severe threat between the northeast Gulf Coast and Carolinas areas. Then potential is expected to ramp up again this afternoon into early evening as the activity nears the Atlantic Coast, and as warm/moist advection from a modifying Atlantic boundary layer supports increasing potential for oceanic supercells to reach the shore there. Warm-sector MLCAPE should reach the 1000-1500 J/kg range the next few hours in the FL Panhandle, and mid/late afternoon over portions of the coastal Carolinas and west-central/central FL. Otherwise, MLCAPE of 200-700 J/kg should be common over most of the outlook area just ahead of the QLCS. Vertical shear, by almost any common measure, will remain strong area-wide. 50-60-kt effective-shear magnitudes should be common, along with 35-50 kt vectors in the lowest km. Mass response to the progressive mid/upper cyclone and trough will continue to yield a 65-95-kt LLJ shifting east-northeastward across the preceding warm sector. This will contribute to effective SRH over 400 J/kg in the warm-frontal zone, and 200-500 J/kg in the warm sector. In addition to enlarging low-level hodographs, LLJ-associated momentum transfer from the intense winds just above the surface, in strong convective cores, may yield locally severe downdraft gusts, some perhaps reaching 65 kt. ..Edwards/Bentley.. 01/09/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...FROM THE EASTERN GULF COAST TO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong), damaging to severe gusts and isolated hail are expected over parts of the Southeast, from the eastern Gulf Coast to the coastal Carolinas. ...Synopsis... The main mid/upper-level feature for this forecast will be a well- developed cyclone, initially centered over the KS/OK/MO tri-state region, along a synoptic-scale trough extending from MN to the Arklatex to near BRO. The 500-mb low is expected to move northeastward through the period, reaching to near HUF by 00Z and over southern ON late tonight. Meanwhile, the trailing trough will become more neutrally to slightly positively tilted, crossing AL around 00Z and moving offshore from NC around 12Z tomorrow. At the surface, a low was analyzed at 11Z near STL, with occluded front southeastward into AL, and cold front across southern AL, the western FL Panhandle, and the north-central Gulf. A warm front was drawn from south-central AL southeastward over the northeastern Gulf, then diffusely eastward over central FL and adjoining parts of the Atlantic. The warm front may shift/redevelop quickly northward today into northern FL and parts of GA, as well as reaching the Carolinas during the afternoon. The low should move erratically northeastward to southern Lake Michigan by 00Z, becoming more deeply occluded. In the meantime today, the cold front should sweep across much of the Southeast, extending from central/eastern NC south- southwestward across Atlantic waters to central FL by around 00Z. The cold front should continue to be preceded by a well-organized squall line. ...Southeast... A strong-severe squall line, with embedded bow/LEWP formations and sporadically tornadic meso/misovortices -- was evident over southeastern AL and the western FL Panhandle. Isolated supercells ahead of the line this morning, in the FL Panhandle and eventually into portions of southwestern GA -- will pose a tornado, wind and isolated severe-hail threat as well. Even for relatively short- lived tornadoes, fast translation can lengthen paths more than usual, and enhance potential damage intensity on one side to significant (EF2+) level. For more detailed near-term coverage, see SPC tornado watch 4 and associated mesoscale discussions. The main convective band should continue to produce damaging wind and occasional QLCS tornadoes as it moves eastward over the outlook area today. A relative min in forcing for discrete, warm-sector supercells, as well as in upstream boundary-layer theta-e available to the squall line, remain plausible, and account for a somewhat lower (but still well worth outlook coverage) all-hazard severe threat between the northeast Gulf Coast and Carolinas areas. Then potential is expected to ramp up again this afternoon into early evening as the activity nears the Atlantic Coast, and as warm/moist advection from a modifying Atlantic boundary layer supports increasing potential for oceanic supercells to reach the shore there. Warm-sector MLCAPE should reach the 1000-1500 J/kg range the next few hours in the FL Panhandle, and mid/late afternoon over portions of the coastal Carolinas and west-central/central FL. Otherwise, MLCAPE of 200-700 J/kg should be common over most of the outlook area just ahead of the QLCS. Vertical shear, by almost any common measure, will remain strong area-wide. 50-60-kt effective-shear magnitudes should be common, along with 35-50 kt vectors in the lowest km. Mass response to the progressive mid/upper cyclone and trough will continue to yield a 65-95-kt LLJ shifting east-northeastward across the preceding warm sector. This will contribute to effective SRH over 400 J/kg in the warm-frontal zone, and 200-500 J/kg in the warm sector. In addition to enlarging low-level hodographs, LLJ-associated momentum transfer from the intense winds just above the surface, in strong convective cores, may yield locally severe downdraft gusts, some perhaps reaching 65 kt. ..Edwards/Bentley.. 01/09/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...FROM THE EASTERN GULF COAST TO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong), damaging to severe gusts and isolated hail are expected over parts of the Southeast, from the eastern Gulf Coast to the coastal Carolinas. ...Synopsis... The main mid/upper-level feature for this forecast will be a well- developed cyclone, initially centered over the KS/OK/MO tri-state region, along a synoptic-scale trough extending from MN to the Arklatex to near BRO. The 500-mb low is expected to move northeastward through the period, reaching to near HUF by 00Z and over southern ON late tonight. Meanwhile, the trailing trough will become more neutrally to slightly positively tilted, crossing AL around 00Z and moving offshore from NC around 12Z tomorrow. At the surface, a low was analyzed at 11Z near STL, with occluded front southeastward into AL, and cold front across southern AL, the western FL Panhandle, and the north-central Gulf. A warm front was drawn from south-central AL southeastward over the northeastern Gulf, then diffusely eastward over central FL and adjoining parts of the Atlantic. The warm front may shift/redevelop quickly northward today into northern FL and parts of GA, as well as reaching the Carolinas during the afternoon. The low should move erratically northeastward to southern Lake Michigan by 00Z, becoming more deeply occluded. In the meantime today, the cold front should sweep across much of the Southeast, extending from central/eastern NC south- southwestward across Atlantic waters to central FL by around 00Z. The cold front should continue to be preceded by a well-organized squall line. ...Southeast... A strong-severe squall line, with embedded bow/LEWP formations and sporadically tornadic meso/misovortices -- was evident over southeastern AL and the western FL Panhandle. Isolated supercells ahead of the line this morning, in the FL Panhandle and eventually into portions of southwestern GA -- will pose a tornado, wind and isolated severe-hail threat as well. Even for relatively short- lived tornadoes, fast translation can lengthen paths more than usual, and enhance potential damage intensity on one side to significant (EF2+) level. For more detailed near-term coverage, see SPC tornado watch 4 and associated mesoscale discussions. The main convective band should continue to produce damaging wind and occasional QLCS tornadoes as it moves eastward over the outlook area today. A relative min in forcing for discrete, warm-sector supercells, as well as in upstream boundary-layer theta-e available to the squall line, remain plausible, and account for a somewhat lower (but still well worth outlook coverage) all-hazard severe threat between the northeast Gulf Coast and Carolinas areas. Then potential is expected to ramp up again this afternoon into early evening as the activity nears the Atlantic Coast, and as warm/moist advection from a modifying Atlantic boundary layer supports increasing potential for oceanic supercells to reach the shore there. Warm-sector MLCAPE should reach the 1000-1500 J/kg range the next few hours in the FL Panhandle, and mid/late afternoon over portions of the coastal Carolinas and west-central/central FL. Otherwise, MLCAPE of 200-700 J/kg should be common over most of the outlook area just ahead of the QLCS. Vertical shear, by almost any common measure, will remain strong area-wide. 50-60-kt effective-shear magnitudes should be common, along with 35-50 kt vectors in the lowest km. Mass response to the progressive mid/upper cyclone and trough will continue to yield a 65-95-kt LLJ shifting east-northeastward across the preceding warm sector. This will contribute to effective SRH over 400 J/kg in the warm-frontal zone, and 200-500 J/kg in the warm sector. In addition to enlarging low-level hodographs, LLJ-associated momentum transfer from the intense winds just above the surface, in strong convective cores, may yield locally severe downdraft gusts, some perhaps reaching 65 kt. ..Edwards/Bentley.. 01/09/2024 Read more View the full article

Flood Warning issued January 09 at 8:01AM EST until January 09 at 2:00PM EST by NWSView the full article

Flood Warning issued January 09 at 8:01AM EST until January 09 at 8:44PM EST by NWSView the full article

Flood Warning issued January 09 at 8:01AM EST until January 09 at 10:08PM EST by NWSView the full article

Flood Warning issued January 09 at 8:01AM EST until January 09 at 2:00PM EST by NWSView the full article

Flood Warning issued January 09 at 8:01AM EST until January 09 at 2:45PM EST by NWSView the full article

Flood Warning issued January 09 at 8:01AM EST until January 09 at 3:00PM EST by NWSView the full article

Flood Warning issued January 09 at 8:01AM EST until further notice by NWSView the full article

Flood Warning issued January 09 at 8:01AM EST until January 09 at 2:00PM EST by NWSView the full article

Tornado Warning issued January 09 at 8:00AM EST until January 09 at 8:45AM EST by NWSView the full article

Severe Weather Statement issued January 09 at 8:00AM EST until January 09 at 2:00PM EST by NWSView the full article

Severe Weather Statement issued January 09 at 8:00AM EST until January 10 at 8:21PM EST by NWSView the full article