NorthGeorgiaWX

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Wed Jan 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur Thursday across parts of the southern Plains and coastal Texas. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A cold front will move southward over the central/southern FL Peninsula on Thursday. But, with limited low-level convergence along this boundary, thunderstorm potential appears generally low. In its wake, a large area of surface high pressure will dominate much of the central/eastern states through the period. A lack of appreciable low-level moisture should hinder thunderstorm develop for a large majority of the CONUS, with two possible exceptions over the southern Plains and coastal TX. A pronounced upper trough/low with attendant strong large-scale ascent will eject over the southern Plains through the day. Even though surface temperatures will remain cool and low-level moisture quite limited, weak instability may still develop with modest daytime heating over parts of the southern High Plains. Isolated, low-topped thunderstorms may occur in this regime as mid-level temperatures rapidly cool with the approach of the upper trough. A separate area of thunderstorms also appears possible late Thursday night into early Friday morning across portions of coastal TX, as greater low-level moisture begins to return northward and weak MUCAPE develops across this area. ..Gleason.. 01/03/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Wed Jan 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur Thursday across parts of the southern Plains and coastal Texas. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A cold front will move southward over the central/southern FL Peninsula on Thursday. But, with limited low-level convergence along this boundary, thunderstorm potential appears generally low. In its wake, a large area of surface high pressure will dominate much of the central/eastern states through the period. A lack of appreciable low-level moisture should hinder thunderstorm develop for a large majority of the CONUS, with two possible exceptions over the southern Plains and coastal TX. A pronounced upper trough/low with attendant strong large-scale ascent will eject over the southern Plains through the day. Even though surface temperatures will remain cool and low-level moisture quite limited, weak instability may still develop with modest daytime heating over parts of the southern High Plains. Isolated, low-topped thunderstorms may occur in this regime as mid-level temperatures rapidly cool with the approach of the upper trough. A separate area of thunderstorms also appears possible late Thursday night into early Friday morning across portions of coastal TX, as greater low-level moisture begins to return northward and weak MUCAPE develops across this area. ..Gleason.. 01/03/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 PM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today through tonight. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential for today and tonight will primarily be driven by two upper lows as they traverse the northern Gulf Coast and the lower Colorado River Valley regions. Meager buoyancy is expected to modulate the potential for organized convection for most locations, with perhaps the exception of the FL west coast. ...Gulf Coast/FL West Coast.. The first of these waves is noted in water-vapor imagery over central TX with an attendant surface low beginning to deepen off the TX Gulf Coast. Objective analyses and surface observations show a broad baroclinic zone - the remnants of a prior frontal intrusion into the Gulf/FL peninsula - draped to the east/southeast. The surface low is forecast to propagate along this effective warm front across the northern Gulf over the next 24 hours, reaching the FL west coast by early Thursday morning. Robust convection attendant to the low appears probable over the Gulf given strong (45-55 knots at 500 mb) flow aloft and recent radar trends. However, 00 UTC soundings across FL sampled an anomalously dry air mass (PWAT values well below the 10th percentile for early January) as a result of the recent frontal intrusion. While some moistening is expected to occur through the day ahead of the approaching low, establishing a quality warm sector inland prior to the arrival of stronger ascent seems unlikely. This idea is reflected in latest CAM ensemble guidance as convective signatures diminish with landfall, suggesting that the potential for organized convection over land is low. That said, a few forecast soundings hint that adequate low-level theta-e may materialize along the immediate FL west coast (including the Tampa Bay area) to support strong, surface-based convection. Given the aforementioned kinematics, this suggests a conditional threat for an organized cell or two. This potential remains too limited to introduce probabilities, but low-level theta-e trends will be monitored. ...California into AZ/NM... Cooler temperatures aloft and strong ascent associated with the upper low over the eastern Pacific are currently supporting sporadic lightning flashes off and along the northern CA coast. Steepening mid-level lapse rates due to differential temperature advection and broadscale ascent, coupled with a modest influx of mid-level maritime moisture, is expected to support marginal instability in the vicinity of the upper trough as it shifts to the east/southeast over the next 24 hours. Consequently, isolated lightning flashes seem probable along the CA coast, across parts of southern NV, and over AZ/western NM through early Thursday morning. ..Moore.. 01/03/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 PM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today through tonight. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential for today and tonight will primarily be driven by two upper lows as they traverse the northern Gulf Coast and the lower Colorado River Valley regions. Meager buoyancy is expected to modulate the potential for organized convection for most locations, with perhaps the exception of the FL west coast. ...Gulf Coast/FL West Coast.. The first of these waves is noted in water-vapor imagery over central TX with an attendant surface low beginning to deepen off the TX Gulf Coast. Objective analyses and surface observations show a broad baroclinic zone - the remnants of a prior frontal intrusion into the Gulf/FL peninsula - draped to the east/southeast. The surface low is forecast to propagate along this effective warm front across the northern Gulf over the next 24 hours, reaching the FL west coast by early Thursday morning. Robust convection attendant to the low appears probable over the Gulf given strong (45-55 knots at 500 mb) flow aloft and recent radar trends. However, 00 UTC soundings across FL sampled an anomalously dry air mass (PWAT values well below the 10th percentile for early January) as a result of the recent frontal intrusion. While some moistening is expected to occur through the day ahead of the approaching low, establishing a quality warm sector inland prior to the arrival of stronger ascent seems unlikely. This idea is reflected in latest CAM ensemble guidance as convective signatures diminish with landfall, suggesting that the potential for organized convection over land is low. That said, a few forecast soundings hint that adequate low-level theta-e may materialize along the immediate FL west coast (including the Tampa Bay area) to support strong, surface-based convection. Given the aforementioned kinematics, this suggests a conditional threat for an organized cell or two. This potential remains too limited to introduce probabilities, but low-level theta-e trends will be monitored. ...California into AZ/NM... Cooler temperatures aloft and strong ascent associated with the upper low over the eastern Pacific are currently supporting sporadic lightning flashes off and along the northern CA coast. Steepening mid-level lapse rates due to differential temperature advection and broadscale ascent, coupled with a modest influx of mid-level maritime moisture, is expected to support marginal instability in the vicinity of the upper trough as it shifts to the east/southeast over the next 24 hours. Consequently, isolated lightning flashes seem probable along the CA coast, across parts of southern NV, and over AZ/western NM through early Thursday morning. ..Moore.. 01/03/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 PM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today through tonight. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential for today and tonight will primarily be driven by two upper lows as they traverse the northern Gulf Coast and the lower Colorado River Valley regions. Meager buoyancy is expected to modulate the potential for organized convection for most locations, with perhaps the exception of the FL west coast. ...Gulf Coast/FL West Coast.. The first of these waves is noted in water-vapor imagery over central TX with an attendant surface low beginning to deepen off the TX Gulf Coast. Objective analyses and surface observations show a broad baroclinic zone - the remnants of a prior frontal intrusion into the Gulf/FL peninsula - draped to the east/southeast. The surface low is forecast to propagate along this effective warm front across the northern Gulf over the next 24 hours, reaching the FL west coast by early Thursday morning. Robust convection attendant to the low appears probable over the Gulf given strong (45-55 knots at 500 mb) flow aloft and recent radar trends. However, 00 UTC soundings across FL sampled an anomalously dry air mass (PWAT values well below the 10th percentile for early January) as a result of the recent frontal intrusion. While some moistening is expected to occur through the day ahead of the approaching low, establishing a quality warm sector inland prior to the arrival of stronger ascent seems unlikely. This idea is reflected in latest CAM ensemble guidance as convective signatures diminish with landfall, suggesting that the potential for organized convection over land is low. That said, a few forecast soundings hint that adequate low-level theta-e may materialize along the immediate FL west coast (including the Tampa Bay area) to support strong, surface-based convection. Given the aforementioned kinematics, this suggests a conditional threat for an organized cell or two. This potential remains too limited to introduce probabilities, but low-level theta-e trends will be monitored. ...California into AZ/NM... Cooler temperatures aloft and strong ascent associated with the upper low over the eastern Pacific are currently supporting sporadic lightning flashes off and along the northern CA coast. Steepening mid-level lapse rates due to differential temperature advection and broadscale ascent, coupled with a modest influx of mid-level maritime moisture, is expected to support marginal instability in the vicinity of the upper trough as it shifts to the east/southeast over the next 24 hours. Consequently, isolated lightning flashes seem probable along the CA coast, across parts of southern NV, and over AZ/western NM through early Thursday morning. ..Moore.. 01/03/2024 Read more View the full article

MD 0001 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR THE SIERRA NEVADA...FROM WEST OF TAHOE INTO AREAS SOUTHEAST OF YOSEMITE Mesoscale Discussion 0001 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0926 PM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Areas affected...the Sierra Nevada...from west of Tahoe into areas southeast of Yosemite Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 030326Z - 030800Z SUMMARY...Heavy snow rates in excess of 2 inches per hour may begin impacting the I-80 corridor west of Tahoe by 9-10 PM PST, if not earlier, before developing southward along the western slopes of the Sierra Nevada, across and southeast of Yosemite by midnight-1 AM PST. DISCUSSION...Cloud tops have been cooling the past few hours, inland of the San Francisco Bay area toward the Sierra Nevada to the west of Tahoe. This is occurring downstream of a vigorous short wave trough, which is forecast to continue gradually pivoting across and inland of the central California coast through 06-09Z., accompanied by considerable further strengthening of large-scale ascent. Models indicate that strongest lift will focus along a frontal zone already in the process of advancing inland, south/east of the Bay area and into the northern Sierra Nevada, and within an increasing upslope flow component across the western slopes of the northern into southern Sierra Nevada by late evening. Coupled with saturating thermodynanmic profiles, including precipitable water in excess of .4 to .5 inches, strengthening lift through through mid-levels with favorable cold temperatures for large dendritic ice crystal growth (roughly between 700-600 mb in forecast soundings) appears likely to yield intensifying snow rates. By 05-06Z, if not before, guidance generally indicates that this may include rates in excess of 2 inches per hour near the Interstate 80 corridor, where cold advection may result in snow levels falling to near or below 4000 feet. As the strengthening lift develops southward along the mountains into and southeast of the Yosemite vicinity through 08-09Z, snow levels are likely to be higher (on the order of 4500 to 5000+ feet), at least initially, before gradually falling overnight. However, somewhat higher moisture content may support heavier peak rates approaching or exceeding 3 inches per hour. ..Kerr.. 01/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...REV...HNX...STO... LAT...LON 39282034 38832002 38131950 37361936 37671975 38162027 38772070 39082082 39282034 Read more View the full article

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 PM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected this evening from parts of central Texas to the Texas Coastal Plain. Thunderstorms are expected to move across southeast Texas into southern Louisiana tonight. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this evening through tonight along the northern California coast. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move eastward across Texas and northern Mexico tonight. Ahead of the trough, thunderstorms will be possible from parts of central Texas to the Texas Coastal Plain, in response to mid-level large-scale ascent and lift associated with a low-level jet. A favorably moist and unstable airmass will remain mostly offshore, eliminating any severe potential over land. Thunderstorms will gradually move eastward tonight across southeast Texas and into southern Louisiana. Elsewhere, isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the coast of northern California, but no severe threat is expected. ..Broyles.. 01/03/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 PM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low through the extended period. A trough will eject into the Plains D3 Thursday - D4 Friday, bringing an increase in surface winds but also potential for widespread precipitation across the central and southern Plains. A small corridor of Elevated fire weather conditions may be possible across South-Central Texas where less rainfall is forecast. Latest fuel guidance suggests that fuels are not expected to become sufficiently dry. An active pattern will continue, favoring southerly storm track and enhanced westerly flow through the end of the extended D5 - Saturday through D8 - Tuesday. Fuels across the southern Plains may experience some drying, with potential for Elevated to Critical fire weather concerns to develop. Uncertainty in the status of fuels and potential for multiple rounds of precipitation leaves predictability too low to include any areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 01/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 PM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low through the extended period. A trough will eject into the Plains D3 Thursday - D4 Friday, bringing an increase in surface winds but also potential for widespread precipitation across the central and southern Plains. A small corridor of Elevated fire weather conditions may be possible across South-Central Texas where less rainfall is forecast. Latest fuel guidance suggests that fuels are not expected to become sufficiently dry. An active pattern will continue, favoring southerly storm track and enhanced westerly flow through the end of the extended D5 - Saturday through D8 - Tuesday. Fuels across the southern Plains may experience some drying, with potential for Elevated to Critical fire weather concerns to develop. Uncertainty in the status of fuels and potential for multiple rounds of precipitation leaves predictability too low to include any areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 01/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No updates are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 01/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential will remain limited for Wednesday. Modest cyclogenesis is anticipated across the northern Gulf of Mexico over the next 24-48 hours as a mid-level wave (currently traversing the U.S./Mexico border as of early Tuesday morning) shifts east towards the Gulf. To the north, surface high pressure is forecast to build over the northern Plains. This surface regime will maintain northerly winds and cool temperatures across much of the central CONUS. Elsewhere, weak winds over the Midwest/Northeast and widespread precipitation chances across CA, UT, and the Pacific Northwest will limit fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No updates are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 01/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential will remain limited for Wednesday. Modest cyclogenesis is anticipated across the northern Gulf of Mexico over the next 24-48 hours as a mid-level wave (currently traversing the U.S./Mexico border as of early Tuesday morning) shifts east towards the Gulf. To the north, surface high pressure is forecast to build over the northern Plains. This surface regime will maintain northerly winds and cool temperatures across much of the central CONUS. Elsewhere, weak winds over the Midwest/Northeast and widespread precipitation chances across CA, UT, and the Pacific Northwest will limit fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected in central Texas through this evening, and into southeast Texas and southern Louisiana tonight. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this evening through tonight along the northern/central California coast. ...Discussion... Previous forecast reasoning remains valid. Western portion of TX thunder line has been tweaked based on latest observations. ..Grams.. 01/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Within a southern stream, one shortwave trough will progress eastward from far west TX to the northwest Gulf coast by early Wednesday, as an upstream trough moves over CA. A modifying air mass is returning northward across the western Gulf of Mexico, though weak cyclogenesis across the shelf waters will keep the surface warm sector just offshore of all but the immediate lower TX coast. There will be some potential for a supercell or two over the near-shore waters of the middle/upper TX coast, but convection will subsequently move farther offshore, which suggests that any severe threat over land is too low to add any probabilities. Scattered/elevated thunderstorms will form farther inland in a zone of increasing ascent over central TX this afternoon, and storms will continue through tonight into southeast TX and southern LA. Otherwise, isolated thunderstorms will be possible later today into tonight across the northern/central CA coast as the upstream trough/midlevel cooling and steepening low-midlevel lapse rates spread inland. Read more View the full article

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected in central Texas through this evening, and into southeast Texas and southern Louisiana tonight. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this evening through tonight along the northern/central California coast. ...Discussion... Previous forecast reasoning remains valid. Western portion of TX thunder line has been tweaked based on latest observations. ..Grams.. 01/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Within a southern stream, one shortwave trough will progress eastward from far west TX to the northwest Gulf coast by early Wednesday, as an upstream trough moves over CA. A modifying air mass is returning northward across the western Gulf of Mexico, though weak cyclogenesis across the shelf waters will keep the surface warm sector just offshore of all but the immediate lower TX coast. There will be some potential for a supercell or two over the near-shore waters of the middle/upper TX coast, but convection will subsequently move farther offshore, which suggests that any severe threat over land is too low to add any probabilities. Scattered/elevated thunderstorms will form farther inland in a zone of increasing ascent over central TX this afternoon, and storms will continue through tonight into southeast TX and southern LA. Otherwise, isolated thunderstorms will be possible later today into tonight across the northern/central CA coast as the upstream trough/midlevel cooling and steepening low-midlevel lapse rates spread inland. Read more View the full article

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected in central Texas through this evening, and into southeast Texas and southern Louisiana tonight. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this evening through tonight along the northern/central California coast. ...Discussion... Previous forecast reasoning remains valid. Western portion of TX thunder line has been tweaked based on latest observations. ..Grams.. 01/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Within a southern stream, one shortwave trough will progress eastward from far west TX to the northwest Gulf coast by early Wednesday, as an upstream trough moves over CA. A modifying air mass is returning northward across the western Gulf of Mexico, though weak cyclogenesis across the shelf waters will keep the surface warm sector just offshore of all but the immediate lower TX coast. There will be some potential for a supercell or two over the near-shore waters of the middle/upper TX coast, but convection will subsequently move farther offshore, which suggests that any severe threat over land is too low to add any probabilities. Scattered/elevated thunderstorms will form farther inland in a zone of increasing ascent over central TX this afternoon, and storms will continue through tonight into southeast TX and southern LA. Otherwise, isolated thunderstorms will be possible later today into tonight across the northern/central CA coast as the upstream trough/midlevel cooling and steepening low-midlevel lapse rates spread inland. Read more View the full article

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Central/Eastern Gulf Coast States... A southern-stream shortwave trough should gradually dampen as it progresses from the northwest Gulf Coast to off the South Atlantic Coast by 12Z Thursday. Guidance is rather consistent that rich low-level moisture will remain confined offshore across the northern Gulf, suggesting prospects will be slim for SBCAPE over land. Weak elevated buoyancy may support sporadic thunderstorms shifting from west to east through the period. The greatest thunder probabilities are across southeast LA early, with low chances farther east as the bulk of deep convection is expected to remain across the north-central to northeast Gulf. ...Coastal CA and AZ/NM... The southern one of the pair of shortwave impulses over the West Coast States should dig slightly as it progresses across the Lower CO Valley into AZ by early Thursday. Relatively cold mid-level temperatures from -25 to -30 C near 500 mb will expand/shift south and overlap scant surface-based buoyancy amid west-northwesterly low-level flow along the CA coast. This may yield very isolated thunderstorm coverage shifting from north to south, mainly during the first half of the period. The modest amplification of the shortwave trough on Wednesday night should strengthen large-scale ascent for low-topped convection across a portion of AZ to west NM. Scant buoyancy may support sporadic lightning flashes. ..Grams.. 01/02/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Central/Eastern Gulf Coast States... A southern-stream shortwave trough should gradually dampen as it progresses from the northwest Gulf Coast to off the South Atlantic Coast by 12Z Thursday. Guidance is rather consistent that rich low-level moisture will remain confined offshore across the northern Gulf, suggesting prospects will be slim for SBCAPE over land. Weak elevated buoyancy may support sporadic thunderstorms shifting from west to east through the period. The greatest thunder probabilities are across southeast LA early, with low chances farther east as the bulk of deep convection is expected to remain across the north-central to northeast Gulf. ...Coastal CA and AZ/NM... The southern one of the pair of shortwave impulses over the West Coast States should dig slightly as it progresses across the Lower CO Valley into AZ by early Thursday. Relatively cold mid-level temperatures from -25 to -30 C near 500 mb will expand/shift south and overlap scant surface-based buoyancy amid west-northwesterly low-level flow along the CA coast. This may yield very isolated thunderstorm coverage shifting from north to south, mainly during the first half of the period. The modest amplification of the shortwave trough on Wednesday night should strengthen large-scale ascent for low-topped convection across a portion of AZ to west NM. Scant buoyancy may support sporadic lightning flashes. ..Grams.. 01/02/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Central/Eastern Gulf Coast States... A southern-stream shortwave trough should gradually dampen as it progresses from the northwest Gulf Coast to off the South Atlantic Coast by 12Z Thursday. Guidance is rather consistent that rich low-level moisture will remain confined offshore across the northern Gulf, suggesting prospects will be slim for SBCAPE over land. Weak elevated buoyancy may support sporadic thunderstorms shifting from west to east through the period. The greatest thunder probabilities are across southeast LA early, with low chances farther east as the bulk of deep convection is expected to remain across the north-central to northeast Gulf. ...Coastal CA and AZ/NM... The southern one of the pair of shortwave impulses over the West Coast States should dig slightly as it progresses across the Lower CO Valley into AZ by early Thursday. Relatively cold mid-level temperatures from -25 to -30 C near 500 mb will expand/shift south and overlap scant surface-based buoyancy amid west-northwesterly low-level flow along the CA coast. This may yield very isolated thunderstorm coverage shifting from north to south, mainly during the first half of the period. The modest amplification of the shortwave trough on Wednesday night should strengthen large-scale ascent for low-topped convection across a portion of AZ to west NM. Scant buoyancy may support sporadic lightning flashes. ..Grams.. 01/02/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Central/Eastern Gulf Coast States... A southern-stream shortwave trough should gradually dampen as it progresses from the northwest Gulf Coast to off the South Atlantic Coast by 12Z Thursday. Guidance is rather consistent that rich low-level moisture will remain confined offshore across the northern Gulf, suggesting prospects will be slim for SBCAPE over land. Weak elevated buoyancy may support sporadic thunderstorms shifting from west to east through the period. The greatest thunder probabilities are across southeast LA early, with low chances farther east as the bulk of deep convection is expected to remain across the north-central to northeast Gulf. ...Coastal CA and AZ/NM... The southern one of the pair of shortwave impulses over the West Coast States should dig slightly as it progresses across the Lower CO Valley into AZ by early Thursday. Relatively cold mid-level temperatures from -25 to -30 C near 500 mb will expand/shift south and overlap scant surface-based buoyancy amid west-northwesterly low-level flow along the CA coast. This may yield very isolated thunderstorm coverage shifting from north to south, mainly during the first half of the period. The modest amplification of the shortwave trough on Wednesday night should strengthen large-scale ascent for low-topped convection across a portion of AZ to west NM. Scant buoyancy may support sporadic lightning flashes. ..Grams.. 01/02/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1042 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 01/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1238 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be minimal for today. Cool conditions prevail in the wake of a recent cold frontal passage across the Plains and Southeast. Surface high pressure in place over the mid-MS River Valley will maintain generally light winds for today. The combination of cool conditions and weak winds over much of the country (as well as precipitation chances over the southern High Plains/TX where fuels have undergone some recent drying) will limit the potential for fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1042 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 01/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1238 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be minimal for today. Cool conditions prevail in the wake of a recent cold frontal passage across the Plains and Southeast. Surface high pressure in place over the mid-MS River Valley will maintain generally light winds for today. The combination of cool conditions and weak winds over much of the country (as well as precipitation chances over the southern High Plains/TX where fuels have undergone some recent drying) will limit the potential for fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected in central Texas this afternoon and tonight into southeast Texas and southern Louisiana. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this evening through tonight along the northern/central California coast. ...Synopsis... Within a southern stream, one shortwave trough will progress eastward from far west TX to the northwest Gulf coast by early Wednesday, as an upstream trough moves over CA. A modifying air mass is returning northward across the western Gulf of Mexico, though weak cyclogenesis across the shelf waters will keep the surface warm sector just offshore of all but the immediate lower TX coast. There will be some potential for a supercell or two over the near-shore waters of the middle/upper TX coast, but convection will subsequently move farther offshore, which suggests that any severe threat over land is too low to add any probabilities. Scattered/elevated thunderstorms will form farther inland in a zone of increasing ascent over central TX this afternoon, and storms will continue through tonight into southeast TX and southern LA. Otherwise, isolated thunderstorms will be possible later today into tonight across the northern/central CA coast as the upstream trough/midlevel cooling and steepening low-midlevel lapse rates spread inland. ..Thompson/Squitieri.. 01/02/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected in central Texas this afternoon and tonight into southeast Texas and southern Louisiana. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this evening through tonight along the northern/central California coast. ...Synopsis... Within a southern stream, one shortwave trough will progress eastward from far west TX to the northwest Gulf coast by early Wednesday, as an upstream trough moves over CA. A modifying air mass is returning northward across the western Gulf of Mexico, though weak cyclogenesis across the shelf waters will keep the surface warm sector just offshore of all but the immediate lower TX coast. There will be some potential for a supercell or two over the near-shore waters of the middle/upper TX coast, but convection will subsequently move farther offshore, which suggests that any severe threat over land is too low to add any probabilities. Scattered/elevated thunderstorms will form farther inland in a zone of increasing ascent over central TX this afternoon, and storms will continue through tonight into southeast TX and southern LA. Otherwise, isolated thunderstorms will be possible later today into tonight across the northern/central CA coast as the upstream trough/midlevel cooling and steepening low-midlevel lapse rates spread inland. ..Thompson/Squitieri.. 01/02/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected in central Texas this afternoon and tonight into southeast Texas and southern Louisiana. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this evening through tonight along the northern/central California coast. ...Synopsis... Within a southern stream, one shortwave trough will progress eastward from far west TX to the northwest Gulf coast by early Wednesday, as an upstream trough moves over CA. A modifying air mass is returning northward across the western Gulf of Mexico, though weak cyclogenesis across the shelf waters will keep the surface warm sector just offshore of all but the immediate lower TX coast. There will be some potential for a supercell or two over the near-shore waters of the middle/upper TX coast, but convection will subsequently move farther offshore, which suggests that any severe threat over land is too low to add any probabilities. Scattered/elevated thunderstorms will form farther inland in a zone of increasing ascent over central TX this afternoon, and storms will continue through tonight into southeast TX and southern LA. Otherwise, isolated thunderstorms will be possible later today into tonight across the northern/central CA coast as the upstream trough/midlevel cooling and steepening low-midlevel lapse rates spread inland. ..Thompson/Squitieri.. 01/02/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected in central Texas this afternoon and tonight into southeast Texas and southern Louisiana. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this evening through tonight along the northern/central California coast. ...Synopsis... Within a southern stream, one shortwave trough will progress eastward from far west TX to the northwest Gulf coast by early Wednesday, as an upstream trough moves over CA. A modifying air mass is returning northward across the western Gulf of Mexico, though weak cyclogenesis across the shelf waters will keep the surface warm sector just offshore of all but the immediate lower TX coast. There will be some potential for a supercell or two over the near-shore waters of the middle/upper TX coast, but convection will subsequently move farther offshore, which suggests that any severe threat over land is too low to add any probabilities. Scattered/elevated thunderstorms will form farther inland in a zone of increasing ascent over central TX this afternoon, and storms will continue through tonight into southeast TX and southern LA. Otherwise, isolated thunderstorms will be possible later today into tonight across the northern/central CA coast as the upstream trough/midlevel cooling and steepening low-midlevel lapse rates spread inland. ..Thompson/Squitieri.. 01/02/2024 Read more View the full article

Freeze Warning issued January 02 at 9:28AM EST until January 03 at 9:00AM EST by NWSView the full article