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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Fire weather potential remains limited through the extended period. Long-range guidance shows reasonably good agreement in the eastward migration of the upper low currently over the lower CO River Valley into the Southeast over the next several days. This will bring widespread rain chances across the southern Plains into the Gulf Coast states where an unseasonably air mass is currently in place. An amplification of the upper trough building over the West Coast appears likely as it shifts east over the central CONUS later this week. This will favor weak gradient winds at the surface, further limiting fire weather potential. The southern California coast will continue to see a weak offshore flow regime through the weekend, but confidence in reaching critical wind/RH thresholds is low, and rain chances are forecast to increase heading into next week. Consequently, the emergence of fire weather concerns appears low through early next week. ..Moore.. 12/13/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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Wind Advisory issued December 13 at 2:45PM EST until December 15 at 4:00AM EST by NWS
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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered, generally weak, thunderstorm activity remains possible late this afternoon through tonight across parts of the Four Corners and southern Rockies into the Texas South Plains and Panhandle vicinity. ...20Z Update... ...Florida... Cloud cover and rain across much of the southeastern Florida Peninsula and Keys have contributed to the maintenance of a generally stable boundary layer, with little forcing in lower-levels to support an appreciable risk for thunderstorms. Some risk for convection capable of producing lightning may linger offshore of coastal areas, mainly along the surface front, to the east of the Greater Miami vicinity. ..Kerr.. 12/13/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023/ ...Synopsis/Discussion... A closed mid/upper-level low will continue eastward over the Four Corners area and southern Rockies through tonight, removed from a more progressive belt of westerlies over the northern tier of the CONUS and Canada. Steepening lapse rates and ascent ahead of the aforementioned upper low will support isolated thunderstorm potential from northeast Arizona/southeast Utah into New Mexico especially tonight, while other thunderstorms will be possible today and tonight farther east across eastern New Mexico and western Texas within a persistent warm advection regime. Additionally, a few thunderstorms will be possible across/near south Florida near a convergence zone where a moist air mass persists.
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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered, generally weak, thunderstorm activity remains possible late this afternoon through tonight across parts of the Four Corners and southern Rockies into the Texas South Plains and Panhandle vicinity. ...20Z Update... ...Florida... Cloud cover and rain across much of the southeastern Florida Peninsula and Keys have contributed to the maintenance of a generally stable boundary layer, with little forcing in lower-levels to support an appreciable risk for thunderstorms. Some risk for convection capable of producing lightning may linger offshore of coastal areas, mainly along the surface front, to the east of the Greater Miami vicinity. ..Kerr.. 12/13/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023/ ...Synopsis/Discussion... A closed mid/upper-level low will continue eastward over the Four Corners area and southern Rockies through tonight, removed from a more progressive belt of westerlies over the northern tier of the CONUS and Canada. Steepening lapse rates and ascent ahead of the aforementioned upper low will support isolated thunderstorm potential from northeast Arizona/southeast Utah into New Mexico especially tonight, while other thunderstorms will be possible today and tonight farther east across eastern New Mexico and western Texas within a persistent warm advection regime. Additionally, a few thunderstorms will be possible across/near south Florida near a convergence zone where a moist air mass persists.
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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered, generally weak, thunderstorm activity remains possible late this afternoon through tonight across parts of the Four Corners and southern Rockies into the Texas South Plains and Panhandle vicinity. ...20Z Update... ...Florida... Cloud cover and rain across much of the southeastern Florida Peninsula and Keys have contributed to the maintenance of a generally stable boundary layer, with little forcing in lower-levels to support an appreciable risk for thunderstorms. Some risk for convection capable of producing lightning may linger offshore of coastal areas, mainly along the surface front, to the east of the Greater Miami vicinity. ..Kerr.. 12/13/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023/ ...Synopsis/Discussion... A closed mid/upper-level low will continue eastward over the Four Corners area and southern Rockies through tonight, removed from a more progressive belt of westerlies over the northern tier of the CONUS and Canada. Steepening lapse rates and ascent ahead of the aforementioned upper low will support isolated thunderstorm potential from northeast Arizona/southeast Utah into New Mexico especially tonight, while other thunderstorms will be possible today and tonight farther east across eastern New Mexico and western Texas within a persistent warm advection regime. Additionally, a few thunderstorms will be possible across/near south Florida near a convergence zone where a moist air mass persists.
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track; fire weather potential will remain limited based on recent ensemble solutions. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 12/13/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023/ ...Synopsis... The cutoff low within the Four Corners will become an open wave and eject into the southern Plains on Thursday. High pressure at the surface is still expected to remain expansive. Cooler temperatures, light winds, and precipitation will again keep fire weather concerns at a minimum for most areas. Offshore flow will continue in southern California, but without greater upper-level wind support, concerns will remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track; fire weather potential will remain limited based on recent ensemble solutions. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 12/13/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023/ ...Synopsis... The cutoff low within the Four Corners will become an open wave and eject into the southern Plains on Thursday. High pressure at the surface is still expected to remain expansive. Cooler temperatures, light winds, and precipitation will again keep fire weather concerns at a minimum for most areas. Offshore flow will continue in southern California, but without greater upper-level wind support, concerns will remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track; fire weather potential will remain limited based on recent ensemble solutions. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 12/13/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023/ ...Synopsis... The cutoff low within the Four Corners will become an open wave and eject into the southern Plains on Thursday. High pressure at the surface is still expected to remain expansive. Cooler temperatures, light winds, and precipitation will again keep fire weather concerns at a minimum for most areas. Offshore flow will continue in southern California, but without greater upper-level wind support, concerns will remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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High Surf Advisory issued December 13 at 2:28PM EST until December 15 at 10:00AM EST by NWS
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1055 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Thursday through Thursday night. ...Discussion... Seasonably high heights associated with general large-scale mid-level ridging appear likely to prevail across much of the U.S. and Canada through this period, with the most pronounced mid-level height anomalies shifting east-southeastward into the Great Lakes region, in the wake of at least a pair of short wave troughs progressing off the Atlantic Seaboard. Within this regime, weak mid-level troughing is forecast to slowly progress east of the U.S. Rockies, with an embedded low migrating east-northeast/east of the southern Rockies through the Texas Panhandle or Texas South Plains vicinity by 12Z Friday. There remains substantive spread among the various model output concerning the track of the mid-level low, but appreciable surface cyclogenesis across the southern Great Plains is unlikely with initially entrenched surface ridging slow to weaken. Although models indicate that the more strongly supporting confluent mid-level flow will begin to shift east of the southern Atlantic Seaboard by early Thursday, expansive cold surface ridging (centered over the southern Appalachians) is forecast to generally be maintained across much of the Southeast and northern Gulf of Mexico into at least early Friday. Seasonably high moisture content likely will remain confined along and south of a remnant baroclinic zone, south of the Florida Straits into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. This front (particularly across portions of the south central Gulf) may become a focus for increasing thunderstorm development Thursday through Thursday night, aided by forcing associated with a mid/upper short wave perturbation emerging from the subtropical eastern Pacific. Otherwise, modest elevated moisture return, coupled with cooling further aloft associated with the mid-level low, probably will support continuing weak thunderstorm development across the southern Rockies into southern Great Plains vicinity into early Friday. ..Kerr.. 12/13/2023
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1055 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Thursday through Thursday night. ...Discussion... Seasonably high heights associated with general large-scale mid-level ridging appear likely to prevail across much of the U.S. and Canada through this period, with the most pronounced mid-level height anomalies shifting east-southeastward into the Great Lakes region, in the wake of at least a pair of short wave troughs progressing off the Atlantic Seaboard. Within this regime, weak mid-level troughing is forecast to slowly progress east of the U.S. Rockies, with an embedded low migrating east-northeast/east of the southern Rockies through the Texas Panhandle or Texas South Plains vicinity by 12Z Friday. There remains substantive spread among the various model output concerning the track of the mid-level low, but appreciable surface cyclogenesis across the southern Great Plains is unlikely with initially entrenched surface ridging slow to weaken. Although models indicate that the more strongly supporting confluent mid-level flow will begin to shift east of the southern Atlantic Seaboard by early Thursday, expansive cold surface ridging (centered over the southern Appalachians) is forecast to generally be maintained across much of the Southeast and northern Gulf of Mexico into at least early Friday. Seasonably high moisture content likely will remain confined along and south of a remnant baroclinic zone, south of the Florida Straits into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. This front (particularly across portions of the south central Gulf) may become a focus for increasing thunderstorm development Thursday through Thursday night, aided by forcing associated with a mid/upper short wave perturbation emerging from the subtropical eastern Pacific. Otherwise, modest elevated moisture return, coupled with cooling further aloft associated with the mid-level low, probably will support continuing weak thunderstorm development across the southern Rockies into southern Great Plains vicinity into early Friday. ..Kerr.. 12/13/2023
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1055 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Thursday through Thursday night. ...Discussion... Seasonably high heights associated with general large-scale mid-level ridging appear likely to prevail across much of the U.S. and Canada through this period, with the most pronounced mid-level height anomalies shifting east-southeastward into the Great Lakes region, in the wake of at least a pair of short wave troughs progressing off the Atlantic Seaboard. Within this regime, weak mid-level troughing is forecast to slowly progress east of the U.S. Rockies, with an embedded low migrating east-northeast/east of the southern Rockies through the Texas Panhandle or Texas South Plains vicinity by 12Z Friday. There remains substantive spread among the various model output concerning the track of the mid-level low, but appreciable surface cyclogenesis across the southern Great Plains is unlikely with initially entrenched surface ridging slow to weaken. Although models indicate that the more strongly supporting confluent mid-level flow will begin to shift east of the southern Atlantic Seaboard by early Thursday, expansive cold surface ridging (centered over the southern Appalachians) is forecast to generally be maintained across much of the Southeast and northern Gulf of Mexico into at least early Friday. Seasonably high moisture content likely will remain confined along and south of a remnant baroclinic zone, south of the Florida Straits into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. This front (particularly across portions of the south central Gulf) may become a focus for increasing thunderstorm development Thursday through Thursday night, aided by forcing associated with a mid/upper short wave perturbation emerging from the subtropical eastern Pacific. Otherwise, modest elevated moisture return, coupled with cooling further aloft associated with the mid-level low, probably will support continuing weak thunderstorm development across the southern Rockies into southern Great Plains vicinity into early Friday. ..Kerr.. 12/13/2023
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1055 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Thursday through Thursday night. ...Discussion... Seasonably high heights associated with general large-scale mid-level ridging appear likely to prevail across much of the U.S. and Canada through this period, with the most pronounced mid-level height anomalies shifting east-southeastward into the Great Lakes region, in the wake of at least a pair of short wave troughs progressing off the Atlantic Seaboard. Within this regime, weak mid-level troughing is forecast to slowly progress east of the U.S. Rockies, with an embedded low migrating east-northeast/east of the southern Rockies through the Texas Panhandle or Texas South Plains vicinity by 12Z Friday. There remains substantive spread among the various model output concerning the track of the mid-level low, but appreciable surface cyclogenesis across the southern Great Plains is unlikely with initially entrenched surface ridging slow to weaken. Although models indicate that the more strongly supporting confluent mid-level flow will begin to shift east of the southern Atlantic Seaboard by early Thursday, expansive cold surface ridging (centered over the southern Appalachians) is forecast to generally be maintained across much of the Southeast and northern Gulf of Mexico into at least early Friday. Seasonably high moisture content likely will remain confined along and south of a remnant baroclinic zone, south of the Florida Straits into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. This front (particularly across portions of the south central Gulf) may become a focus for increasing thunderstorm development Thursday through Thursday night, aided by forcing associated with a mid/upper short wave perturbation emerging from the subtropical eastern Pacific. Otherwise, modest elevated moisture return, coupled with cooling further aloft associated with the mid-level low, probably will support continuing weak thunderstorm development across the southern Rockies into southern Great Plains vicinity into early Friday. ..Kerr.. 12/13/2023
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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1017 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible through tonight from the Four Corners into west Texas, and across parts of south Florida. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A closed mid/upper-level low will continue eastward over the Four Corners area and southern Rockies through tonight, removed from a more progressive belt of westerlies over the northern tier of the CONUS and Canada. Steepening lapse rates and ascent ahead of the aforementioned upper low will support isolated thunderstorm potential from northeast Arizona/southeast Utah into New Mexico especially tonight, while other thunderstorms will be possible today and tonight farther east across eastern New Mexico and western Texas within a persistent warm advection regime. Additionally, a few thunderstorms will be possible across/near south Florida near a convergence zone where a moist air mass persists. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 12/13/2023
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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1017 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible through tonight from the Four Corners into west Texas, and across parts of south Florida. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A closed mid/upper-level low will continue eastward over the Four Corners area and southern Rockies through tonight, removed from a more progressive belt of westerlies over the northern tier of the CONUS and Canada. Steepening lapse rates and ascent ahead of the aforementioned upper low will support isolated thunderstorm potential from northeast Arizona/southeast Utah into New Mexico especially tonight, while other thunderstorms will be possible today and tonight farther east across eastern New Mexico and western Texas within a persistent warm advection regime. Additionally, a few thunderstorms will be possible across/near south Florida near a convergence zone where a moist air mass persists. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 12/13/2023
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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1017 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible through tonight from the Four Corners into west Texas, and across parts of south Florida. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A closed mid/upper-level low will continue eastward over the Four Corners area and southern Rockies through tonight, removed from a more progressive belt of westerlies over the northern tier of the CONUS and Canada. Steepening lapse rates and ascent ahead of the aforementioned upper low will support isolated thunderstorm potential from northeast Arizona/southeast Utah into New Mexico especially tonight, while other thunderstorms will be possible today and tonight farther east across eastern New Mexico and western Texas within a persistent warm advection regime. Additionally, a few thunderstorms will be possible across/near south Florida near a convergence zone where a moist air mass persists. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 12/13/2023
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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1017 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible through tonight from the Four Corners into west Texas, and across parts of south Florida. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A closed mid/upper-level low will continue eastward over the Four Corners area and southern Rockies through tonight, removed from a more progressive belt of westerlies over the northern tier of the CONUS and Canada. Steepening lapse rates and ascent ahead of the aforementioned upper low will support isolated thunderstorm potential from northeast Arizona/southeast Utah into New Mexico especially tonight, while other thunderstorms will be possible today and tonight farther east across eastern New Mexico and western Texas within a persistent warm advection regime. Additionally, a few thunderstorms will be possible across/near south Florida near a convergence zone where a moist air mass persists. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 12/13/2023
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High Surf Advisory issued December 13 at 10:31AM EST until December 17 at 3:00AM EST by NWS
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Rip Current Statement issued December 13 at 10:31AM EST until December 17 at 1:00AM EST by NWS
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Coastal Flood Advisory issued December 13 at 10:31AM EST until December 16 at 7:00PM EST by NWS
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0908 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Latest surface observations along the southern CA coast show winds gusting between 30-40 mph, but RH has generally remained above 30%. Some diurnal RH reduction is anticipated this afternoon, and may result in localized fire weather concerns (mainly over Ventura and LA counties). However, the potential for more widespread elevated conditions remains too limited for highlights. ..Moore.. 12/13/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0131 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023/ ...Synopsis... The CONUS will generally be under the influence of an upper-level ridge today. A cutoff low will slowly progress eastward toward the Four Corners, becoming more of an open wave in the process. At the surface, high pressure will be present across the vast majority of the CONUS. Cooler temperatures, light winds, and precipitation will keep fire weather concerns low for most areas. Some locally elevated fire weather may occur in southern California as modest offshore flow persists through the period. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0908 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Latest surface observations along the southern CA coast show winds gusting between 30-40 mph, but RH has generally remained above 30%. Some diurnal RH reduction is anticipated this afternoon, and may result in localized fire weather concerns (mainly over Ventura and LA counties). However, the potential for more widespread elevated conditions remains too limited for highlights. ..Moore.. 12/13/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0131 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023/ ...Synopsis... The CONUS will generally be under the influence of an upper-level ridge today. A cutoff low will slowly progress eastward toward the Four Corners, becoming more of an open wave in the process. At the surface, high pressure will be present across the vast majority of the CONUS. Cooler temperatures, light winds, and precipitation will keep fire weather concerns low for most areas. Some locally elevated fire weather may occur in southern California as modest offshore flow persists through the period. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0640 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms will be possible through tonight from the Four Corners into west Texas, and across parts of south Florida. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A closed midlevel low will move slowly eastward over northern AZ toward NM by Thursday morning. Surface ridging and an associated cool air mass will be maintained across most of the central and eastern CONUS, beneath confluent midlevel flow. This low-level flow regime will limit substantial boundary-layer moisture to south FL, where a few thunderstorms will be possible along the convergence zone coincident with the northwest edge of the 68-72 F dewpoints across the Keys and southeast FL. Farther west, a modifying air mass with dewpoints in the low-mid 60s will persist across Deep South TX, though poor lapse rates aloft suggest that convection will remain too shallow for charge separation and lighting production. Steepening midlevel lapse rates and ascent immediately east of the midlevel low could support isolated thunderstorms over the higher terrain of northeast AZ and western NM this evening into tonight. A few lightning flashes with elevated convection will also be possible farther east in the persistent warm advection zone with weak buoyancy over west TX and the TX Panhandle. ..Thompson/Gleason.. 12/13/2023
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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0640 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms will be possible through tonight from the Four Corners into west Texas, and across parts of south Florida. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A closed midlevel low will move slowly eastward over northern AZ toward NM by Thursday morning. Surface ridging and an associated cool air mass will be maintained across most of the central and eastern CONUS, beneath confluent midlevel flow. This low-level flow regime will limit substantial boundary-layer moisture to south FL, where a few thunderstorms will be possible along the convergence zone coincident with the northwest edge of the 68-72 F dewpoints across the Keys and southeast FL. Farther west, a modifying air mass with dewpoints in the low-mid 60s will persist across Deep South TX, though poor lapse rates aloft suggest that convection will remain too shallow for charge separation and lighting production. Steepening midlevel lapse rates and ascent immediately east of the midlevel low could support isolated thunderstorms over the higher terrain of northeast AZ and western NM this evening into tonight. A few lightning flashes with elevated convection will also be possible farther east in the persistent warm advection zone with weak buoyancy over west TX and the TX Panhandle. ..Thompson/Gleason.. 12/13/2023
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
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