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MD 2298 CONCERNING OUTLOOK UPGRADE FOR CENTRAL GULF COAST
Mesoscale Discussion 2298 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0613 PM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Areas affected...Central Gulf Coast Concerning...Outlook upgrade Valid 020013Z - 020145Z SUMMARY...A level 2-Slight Risk will be added with the upcoming 01Z outlook across the central Gulf Coast for the potential of a couple tornadic storms tonight. In the short-term, a gradual increase in the threat for a low-probability brief tornado and locally strong gusts of 40-55 mph should occur across coastal/southern LA through late evening. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm cluster ongoing south of the mouth of the Sabine River should eventually spread northeast towards coastal southern LA. Strong speed shear in the mid to upper-level wind profile will be conducive to updraft rotation, and a few transient/embedded supercells should evolve as the cluster progresses inland amid a modestly unstable air mass characterized by MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg. Low-level wind profiles are currently the limiting factor to a more robust severe threat per time-series of KLCH/TMSY VWP data and the 00Z LIX sounding. 18Z ECMWF and NAM guidance along with the 21Z RAP suggest that low-level flow will increase, especially after 06Z. As such, confidence is low in whether an appreciable tornado threat can be realized this evening, suggesting that watch potential is unlikely in the near-term. But as low-level SRH increases with enlarging hodographs, observational data will be closely monitored for the possibility of a tornado watch later tonight. ..Grams/Smith.. 12/02/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...LCH... LAT...LON 29609272 30039220 30868856 30898775 30648746 30268779 29258982 29149168 29609272Read more -
MD 2297 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 2297 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 PM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Areas affected...middle and upper Texas Coast into portions of western Louisiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 012129Z - 012330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Developing thunderstorms along a coastal front may eventually grow upscale into a more organized cluster capable of damaging winds or a brief tornado. Confidence in storm evolution and the subsequent severe risk is low. DISCUSSION...As of 2120 UTC, afternoon observations showed thunderstorms developing along a coastal front across portions of the middle TX Coast. Located ahead of a subtle shortwave impulse embedded within broad southwesterly flow aloft, the coastal front has slowly been lifting northward through the day. While the majority of the open warm sector should remain offshore for the next couple of hours, weak low-level warm advection may allow for continued thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening across the upper TX coast and into parts of southwestern LA. Modified RAP sounding show 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE with 35-45 kt of effective shear could support a few organized storms, including short bowing segments or supercells. Hi-res guidance also suggests a few stronger storms, with a risk for damaging gusts or a brief tornado, could evolve as they track along the coastal front late this afternoon. However, confidence in sustained organized storms staying near-surface based is low given the lack of broader-scale forcing for ascent and the slow movement of the front. However, this could change later tonight as the main shortwave and increasing mass response from the low-level jet bolster low-level WAA. Trends will be monitored, but currently, a weather watch appears unlikely given the narrow warm sector and limited potential for surface-based storm organization. ..Lyons/Hart.. 12/01/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX... LAT...LON 31089273 30999204 30699195 30379199 29999213 29629230 29549247 29489275 29259398 29079451 28619532 28579587 28629605 28859617 29109608 29729539 30379451 30829338 31089273Read more -
MD 2296 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 2296 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0735 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Areas affected...parts of southeastern Mississippi and southwestern Alabama Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 011335Z - 011530Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Potential for locally strong wind gusts, or perhaps a brief tornado, may still not be completely negligible with the ongoing cluster of thunderstorms spreading across/northeast and east of the Gulfport MS vicinity. However, this limited severe weather threat appears likely to diminish as convection weakens through mid morning. DISCUSSION...Although convective intensities have been generally modest, a persistent cluster of thunderstorms has exhibited organized structure during the past few hours as it develops east-northeastward within 40+ kt west-southwesterly deep-layer mean flow. Activity appears rooted above a shallow stable near-surface layer, supported by forcing for ascent associated with warm advection, beneath a divergent upper flow field between the polar and subtropical jets. To this point, the severe weather potential probably has been limited by weak lapse rates above the stable surface layer, which is only supporting weak CAPE (as evident in 12Z raob from LIX). While forecast soundings suggest that there will be a gradual modification of the boundary-layer inland of coastal areas ahead of the line into mid to late morning, a 40-50 kt south-southwesterly 850 mb jet still roughly coincident with the line is forecast to continue to shift away from coastal areas into the western slopes of the Appalachians. As this occurs, weakening low-level forcing for ascent and gradually shrinking low-level hodographs are expected to result in diminishing convective trends. ..Kerr/Edwards.. 12/01/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX... LAT...LON 30458931 31628789 31408715 30718726 30338804 29828916 30128945 30458931Read more -
MD 2295 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR COASTAL SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL LA
Mesoscale Discussion 2295 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 Areas affected...Coastal southwest/south-central LA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 010531Z - 010730Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A low-probability threat for a brief tornado along with isolated strong gusts of 40-55 mph will likely persist overnight, but within a spatially confined area of a single parish or two at any one time that should gradually shift east. DISCUSSION...Attempts at brief mesovortex formation appeared to have a relative peak during the 03-04Z time frame before thunderstorm clusters became more oriented from southwest to northeast across far southwest LA. This type of orientation within the low-level warm theta-e advection regime should support a rather limited spatial extent of brief tornado potential at any one time during the early morning. The overlap of upper 60s surface dew points within warm-sector inflow where surface winds have not yet veered appears spatially small, and is presently confined to eastern Cameron Parish. With convection likely regenerating in this southwest-northeast orientation through much of the night, this favorable warm-sector inflow region and resultant brief tornado threat should slowly shift east along the coastal parishes of southwest to south-central LA. ..Grams/Smith.. 12/01/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH... LAT...LON 30179264 30229208 30159165 30049133 29849112 29589112 29369128 29399174 29529284 29769315 29929313 30179264Read more -
MD 2294 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR SOUTHEAST TX AND SOUTHWEST LA
Mesoscale Discussion 2294 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 Areas affected...Far southeast TX and southwest LA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 010052Z - 010245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A spatially limited threat for a tornado should persist along a portion of the northwest Gulf Coast this evening. DISCUSSION...A deep convective cluster has become confined to the far southeast three counties of TX (Chambers, Jefferson, and Orange). This convection has struggled to organize beyond sporadic attempts at lower-end/transient mid-level rotation. The overall thermodynamic environment, which has been the primary mitigating factor to severe weather thus far, might become slightly more conducive to generating a surface-based supercell as temperatures have warmed into the upper 60s near/just south of this activity along the immediate coast. This should gradually translate east through the rest of the evening into southwest LA, improving upon the nil instability sampled in the 00Z LCH sounding. While the low-level wind profile has been in the process of strengthening over the past few hours, resulting in increasingly enlarged hodographs, confidence remains low that sustained supercell development will occur as depicted in the 23Z RRFS compared to the negligible signal in the 00Z WoFS. ..Grams/Smith.. 12/01/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX... LAT...LON 30249413 30369376 30349328 30249298 30089289 29909290 29769299 29739308 29679349 29599407 29549447 29649457 29699457 30249413Read more -
MD 2293 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2293 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0525 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 Areas affected...southwestern Oklahoma into north-central Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 302325Z - 010100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A marginal risk of severe hail will be possible over the next couple of hours. DISCUSSION...Recent radar trends have shown strengthening cores within the cells near the Red River along the Texas/Oklahoma border. Mid-level cooling associated with the upper-level trough has given way to a small corridor of MLCAPE around 500 J/kg along the OK/TX border. Forecast soundings from the RAP along with objective analysis show steep mid-level lapse rates around 7-7.5 c/km and deep layer shear around 35-40 kts. This will support potential for a few instances of severe hail (up to 1-1.25 in). Recent reports of hail up to 3/4 inch have been noted near Childress. Due to short time window within the better instability and due to nocturnal cooling, it is unlikely that the hail threat will be long lived. As such, a watch is not anticipated. ..Thornton/Smith.. 11/30/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 34000016 34350024 34710018 34860011 34930010 35069999 35209954 35139900 34969849 34749825 34369801 34189793 33929795 33519813 33419917 33569977 34000016Read more -
MD 2292 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TX INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST LA
Mesoscale Discussion 2292 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 Areas affected...Parts of east-central/southeast TX into extreme southwest LA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 302152Z - 302315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Some threat for a tornado and locally damaging gusts may still evolve late this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Convection persists this afternoon near the upper TX coast, while storms have also recently developed near the western edge of deeper moisture across parts of east-central TX. Thus far, convection has struggled to become organized, despite the presence of rich low-level moisture and favorable wind profiles. This is likely due to widespread cloudiness across the region, with weak low-level lapse rates where convection is ongoing. While MLCINH is not prohibitive for surface-based storms (largely due to the rich low-level moisture), the short-term potential for organized storms remains uncertain, with a continued tendency for convection to remain slightly elevated as it moves through a poor lapse rate environment where clouds remain entrenched. However, with favorable deep-layer shear and 0-1 km SRH of 200-300 m2/s2 (greater closer to the coast) across the region, a transient supercell and/or a stronger line segment cannot be ruled out through the remainder of the afternoon, with an attendant threat of a tornado and/or locally damaging gusts. With the threat expected to remain rather isolated through the afternoon, short-term watch issuance is unlikely. Some uptick remains possible sometime this evening, especially into far southeast TX/southwest LA, and trends will continue to be monitored for an increase in storm organization/intensity, given the favorable wind profiles and low-level moisture in place. ..Dean.. 11/30/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... LAT...LON 30489664 32059641 32109583 31679523 30979508 30279356 29919326 29739332 29579367 29409414 29149461 28929499 28649542 28529567 28529582 28579589 28939594 29239603 29479636 29879670 30389666 30489664Read more -
MD 2291 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 2291 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 Areas affected...Northeast Texas into far southwestern Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 301844Z - 302045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...The potential for isolated severe hail, and perhaps damaging wind gusts, should increase through the mid-afternoon hours across northeast Texas and portions of far southwestern Oklahoma. Watch issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, the coverage and intensity of convection has increased across central to northeast TX as lift within a warm advection regime and ahead of an approaching upper wave increases. While much of this convection is well displaced from a narrow plume of surface-based buoyancy stretching from the TX Gulf coast into central TX, MUCAPE across northeast TX has steadily increased to around 1000 J/kg amid warming/moistening within the 925-850 mb layer. Observed storm motions and a lack of apparent low-level mesocyclones further suggest that this convection is rooted above the surface, but elongated hodographs above 2 km (featuring effective bulk shear values near 40 knots), should support storm organization with an attendant risk of isolated large hail. Cooling cloud top temperatures and an uptick in lightning counts over the past 15-30 minutes suggest convection is beginning to realize this environment, so an increasing hail threat seems probable (though clustered storm modes may inhibit the overall threat). Recent hi-res guidance, including HRRR-based SCRAMM solutions and WOFS ensemble output, appears to have picked up on this trend and shows increasing potential for isolated hail across northeast TX over the next several hours. While the signal for severe winds is comparatively weaker, a few damaging gusts will be possible. Regardless, the overall severe threat should remain too limited to warrant watch issuance. ..Moore/Thompson.. 11/30/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 31409742 31779765 32809746 33529748 33949761 34369566 34179495 33879449 33059425 32399443 31749489 31529539 31409742Read more -
MD 2290 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEAST TX
Mesoscale Discussion 2290 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 Areas affected...Southeast TX Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 301759Z - 302000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...The tornado threat may gradually increase with time through the day. Eventual watch issuance is possible, though timing is uncertain. DISCUSSION...Convection is gradually increasing across parts of southeast TX within a low-level warm-advection regime, with recent satellite and radar trends indicating an increase in storm intensity southwest of Galveston Bay. Mid/upper 60s F dewpoints are gradually streaming northward across the region, though widespread cloudiness and increasing precipitation will continue to limit heating and destabilization through the afternoon. The timing and extent of surface-based supercell development this afternoon remain uncertain, and may continue to be limited by weak low-level lapse rates and buoyancy. However, it remains possible that consolidation of the stronger ongoing elevated convection may result in transient supercell development, and there is also some potential for a supercell or two to develop offshore and move inland later this afternoon. Favorable low-level and deep-layer shear (as noted on the TIAH/THOU VWPs) will support a conditional tornado risk if any mature supercells can evolve with time. Tornado watch issuance is possible sometime this afternoon, if observational trends begin to support imminent supercell potential. ..Dean/Thompson.. 11/30/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP... LAT...LON 28639647 29129651 29409613 29869520 30139443 29829409 29559411 29319446 29099484 28849533 28689568 28549599 28439619 28369631 28639647Read more -
MD 2289 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR WESTERN NY...EXTREME NORTHWEST PA...FAR NORTHEAST OH
Mesoscale Discussion 2289 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023 Areas affected...Western NY...Extreme Northwest PA...Far Northeast OH Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 280716Z - 281115Z SUMMARY...Heavy snowfall, with rates over 2" per hour, are possible across the Tug Hill Plateau over the next several hours. Moderate to occasionally heavy snowfall is also anticipated farther south in the immediate lee of Lake Erie. DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery continues to show a loosely organized band of heavy snowfall extending from eastern portions of Lake Ontario eastward through Oswego, southern Jefferson, and Lewis Counties. Overall organization of this band is expected to improve over the next several hours as broad westerly flow across the lake persists, and local convergence increases due to strengthening and veering of the winds south of the lake. Some strengthening is possible with the winds over the lake as well as the more west-northwesterly winds north of the lake. Snowfall rates from 1" to 2" per hour will continue for the next several hours, likely maximizing in the 08Z-10Z time frame, when rates of 2" per hour are most likely. Farther south, a shorter lake fetch is contributing to a broad areas of moderate snowfall in the lee of Lake Erie. Less low-level convergence and weaker band organization should keep snowfall rates a bit lower here than areas farther north, with rates generally expected to maximize around 1" per hour. ..Mosier.. 11/28/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...CLE... LAT...LON 43587694 43987619 44157546 43557530 42217781 41548055 41388156 41968137 42697907 43587694Read more -
MD 2288 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TO CENTRAL KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2288 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 PM CST Sat Nov 25 2023 Areas affected...Northwest Oklahoma to central Kansas Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 251858Z - 260000Z SUMMARY...The potential for periods of heavy snow (snowfall rates exceeding 1 inch/hour) will steadily increase through the afternoon and early evening hours across northwest OK and southern to central KS. DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, a few surface observations across south-central KS have reported periods of visibility reductions down to 0.25 mile, indicative of heavy snowfall rates. Such conditions are expected to become more common through the remainder of the afternoon and early evening hours. Latest water-vapor imagery shows the exit region of the 500 mb jet overspreading the TX/OK Panhandles region; concurrently, regional VWP observations have sampled strengthening flow in the 1-2 km layer - likely a mass response associated with the approaching jet. Consequently, both synoptic and mesoscale ascent (isentropic and frontogenetical lift within a warm advection regime near 850 mb) appear to be increasing over the region. Upstream radar trends support this idea with a gradually expanding swath of stratiform precipitation noted over the eastern TX Panhandle. This lift/precipitation will shift east through the afternoon and evening hours, resulting in gradual change over to primarily snow across parts of northwest OK as well as a prolonged period of moderate snowfall rates across southern KS. Strong mesoscale ascent along the 850 mb baroclinic zone, coupled with weak (< 50 J/kg MUCAPE) buoyancy, should result in periods of heavy snowfall with rates approaching 1 inch/hour. ..Moore.. 11/25/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC... LAT...LON 38279599 36179817 35939855 35819888 35839930 35939963 36249984 36529987 36809976 39229712 39379682 39329640 38939575 38619580 38279599Read more -
MD 2287 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 2287 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0855 AM CST Sat Nov 25 2023 Areas affected...Eastern Texas Panhandle into northwest Oklahoma Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 251455Z - 251900Z SUMMARY...Periods of moderate sleet and freezing rain appear probable through mid-afternoon across the eastern Texas Panhandle and northwest Oklahoma. Freezing rain rates up to 0.1 in/hour are possible. DISCUSSION...Surface observations and mPING reports over the past hour are reporting a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain ongoing from the I-40 corridor in the eastern TX Panhandle into northwest OK. Despite temperatures well below freezing across the region, correlation coefficient data from KVNX suggests a melting layer remains in place at around 4 kft, or roughly at the 800 mb level. These observations lend credence to recent RAP forecast soundings, which suggest that this 1-2 C warm layer will remain in place through mid-afternoon. Other 12z guidance also suggests a mix of sleet and freezing rain will persist through at least early afternoon with some solutions hinting at periods of freezing rain accumulations up to 0.1 in/hour (though this will be conditional on realizing freezing rain as the predominant precipitation type, which remains uncertain based on latest obs). Regardless, the approach of the main synoptic wave and attendant upper jet, coupled with a persistent warm advection regime at around 850-800 mb, should favor additional wintry precip through the afternoon. 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7 C/km could support weak (< 50 J/kg) MUCAPE, resulting in embedded areas of moderate freezing rain/sleet rates. ..Moore.. 11/25/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... LAT...LON 35490104 35680079 37189856 37289827 37329799 37319767 37179751 36829747 36559768 35439928 35029995 34890025 34870059 34950090 35230111 35490104Read more -
MD 2286 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR NORTHERN MAINE AND NORTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
Mesoscale Discussion 2286 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0850 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2023 Areas affected...northern Maine and northeastern New Hampshire Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 221450Z - 221845Z SUMMARY...Periods of heavy snowfall, with rates up to 1-1.5 inches per hour, are possible for the next few hours across northern Maine and northeastern New Hampshire. DISCUSSION...Heavy snowfall rates have been observed this morning across portions of northern Maine. This activity is associated with a surface cyclone currently analyzed along the southern New England coast. The cyclone should continue to gradually deepen throughout the morning due to differential cyclonic vorticity advection (ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough) and low-level coastal baroclinity as it moves east-northeastward. 12z GYX/CAR soundings exhibited strong veering in the lowest ~3 km AGL, indicative of widespread low-level warm-air advection. Temperatures aloft in the lowest 3 km AGL are nearly isothermal and below freezing, except nearer to the coast where surface temperatures rising into the 40s F are observed. Farther inland, the continued northward moisture flux atop colder surface conditions could contribute to periods of heavy snowfall (1-1.5 inches per hour) for the next few hours. ..Flournoy.. 11/22/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX... LAT...LON 44307029 44606929 45106840 45656787 46916786 47196816 47096881 46596959 45767021 45257067 44887117 44427133 44177094 44307029Read more -
MD 2285 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 2285 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0607 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2023 Areas affected...Eastern North Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 221207Z - 221430Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...An isolated tornado threat is expected to develop across parts of eastern North Carolina this morning. The severe threat should remain marginal, and weather watch issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...At mid-levels, a trough and an associated speed max, are located over the central Gulf Coast states. The 80 to 100 knot mid-level jet will continue to approach the Carolinas over the next few hours. As a result, large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear will gradually strengthen over the Carolinas this morning. At the surface, a mesoscale low is analyzed over northeastern South Carolina, with another in northeastern North Carolina. A weakly unstable airmass is present to the east of this surface trough. This airmass will slowly destabilize this morning, which will make conditions more favorable for rotating storms. In addition, the WSR-88D VWP near Wilmington, North Carolina currently has 0-3 km storm-relative helicity near 230 m2/s2. As the low-level shear strengthens ahead of the system, a marginal tornado threat is expected to develop. This threat should persist throughout the morning from near the coast of North Carolina inland about 50 statute miles. ..Broyles/Edwards.. 11/22/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM... LAT...LON 34957572 34107744 33967803 34057837 34317849 34677823 35747652 36047591 35927550 35447533 34957572Read more -
MD 2283 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...FLORIDA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 2283 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0526 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2023 Areas affected...far southeast Alabama...southwest Georgia...Florida Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 212326Z - 220200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...The risk for an isolated, brief tornado may persist for another 2 hours or so, from parts of southeast Alabama into southwest Georgia. Given the short time frame and areal extent of the threat, a watch is not expected. DISCUSSION...An isolated supercell is currently ongoing over far southeast AL, just ahead of a line of storms along a cold front. The air mass ahead of the front is reasonably unstable to support severe storms given the shear, but overall large-scale support is dwindling as the low-level jet shifts northeastward. In the short term, sufficient instability of 500-1000 J/kg and 0-1 SRH of 150-180 m2/s2 may sustain a localized supercell/tornado risk, with ongoing activity, with a relatively limited threat corridor along and east of the cold front. ..Jewell/Guyer.. 11/21/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX... LAT...LON 30998608 31468575 32018514 32438451 32548387 32298346 31828348 31098405 30758473 30668533 30798587 30788604 30998608Read more -
MD 2282 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN ALABAMA INTO WESTERN GEORGIA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 2282 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2023 Areas affected...portions of eastern Alabama into western Georgia and the western Florida Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 211952Z - 212215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A couple of damaging gusts or brief tornadoes cannot be ruled out with any of the stronger storms that can materialize this afternoon into early evening. The severe threat will likely be isolated. DISCUSSION...Convection is slowly deepening along a line immediately ahead of a surface cold front that progressing eastward across central AL. Limited diurnal heating amid low-level warm-air advection has allowed for scant buoyancy to develop ahead of the aforementioned convective line. Surface temperatures warming into the low to mid 70s F amid mid 60s F dewpoints beneath poor tropospheric lapse rates supports narrow SBCAPE profiles (mainly below 500 J/kg), with evidence of embedded thin inversion layers (per latest RAP forecast soundings). While a strong low-level jet is in place (contributing to enlarged, curved hodographs), the surface low over the OH Valley should continue to drift northeastward with time, supporting an eastward shift of the low-level jet and resultant veering of flow in the surface-850 mb layer. When also considering the scant buoyancy, the severe threat appears limited. Nonetheless, there may be a window of opportunity for some of the stronger convective cells embedded in the line to overlap with locally higher CAPE before low-level flow veers and hodographs lose their curvature. For a few hours during the afternoon, some of these storms may acquire brief/transient low-level rotation. As such, a couple of damaging gusts or brief tornadoes cannot be completely ruled out. Nonetheless, the anticipated isolated nature of the severe threat suggests that a WW issuance will probably not be needed later today. ..Squitieri/Gleason.. 11/21/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... LAT...LON 30348686 32228565 33688445 33938428 34228372 34168303 34018266 33358246 32798247 32388265 31848308 30738362 30158390 29758442 29598498 29678548 30038594 30108602 30348686Read more -
MD 2281 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 2281 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2023 Areas affected...portions of the Florida Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 211636Z - 211730Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A brief tornado or two may accompany low-topped supercells as they approach the FL Panhandle shoreline. The severe threat should stay isolated over the next couple of hours, so a WW issuance is not expected in the near-term. DISCUSSION...Low-topped supercells have developed within the low-level warm-air-advection axis and are approaching the western FL Panhandle. Along the coast, strong veering and strengthening of the low-level wind profile supports enlarged hodographs. While dewpoints are reaching 70 F along the coast, weak diurnal heating beneath poor tropospheric lapse rates are resulting in thin CAPE profiles (with SBCAPE struggling to exceed 500 J/kg). As such, the strong low-level shear may support a brief tornado across the western FL Panhandle, but the severe threat should remain sparse at best over the next couple of hours, and a WW issuance not anticipated. Should more appreciable surface heating occur through the afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front, a relatively more robust severe threat could materialize. The region will be monitored more carefully for such a scenario and the need for a WW issuance later today. ..Squitieri/Gleason.. 11/21/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB... LAT...LON 30188678 30668638 30938595 30888533 30428470 29988485 29848538 29908620 30188678Read more -
MD 2280 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO PARTS OF EASTERN LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 2280 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2023 Areas affected...southern Mississippi into parts of eastern Louisiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 210553Z - 210730Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A few strong may produce strong gusts or even a brief tornado, but the overall threat in the near term is not expected to warrant an additional watch. DISCUSSION...Storms have aggregated into a broken line from southern MS into southeast LA, with indications of gusts winds at times. Little rotation or supercell structures have been observed in the past hour, likely due to gradually veering low-level winds and decreasing ascent overall. Effective SRH around 300 m2/s2, a moist boundary layer and 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE still may yield a supercell, but perhaps short lived, with brief tornado potential. However, the overall threat does not appear high enough for an additional tornado watch at this time. Given the moist air mass and 40-50 kt low-level jet, convective trends will continue to be monitored for any increase in intensity overnight. ..Jewell.. 11/21/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH... LAT...LON 29729121 29909118 30809039 31518967 31848942 32058893 32018860 31778833 31338816 30998826 30558861 29958960 29759061 29739114 29729121Read more -
MD 2279 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 712... FOR SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO SOUTHWEST ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 2279 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0847 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2023 Areas affected...southern Mississippi into southwest Alabama Concerning...Tornado Watch 712... Valid 210247Z - 210445Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 712 continues. SUMMARY...A tornado or two remains possible this evening over southern Mississippi, with a few damaging gusts possible as well. The severe risk may eventually spread into parts of southwest Alabama later tonight. DISCUSSION...A broken line of storms including a few supercells currently stretch east-central MS southwestward into southwest LA. Deep-layer shear remain favorable to sustain cells this evening, with effective SRH maximized over central MS currently. Persistent southerly winds in the lower 2 km will continue to aid moisture advection, with upper 60s F dewpoints spreading north across southwest AL ahead of the ongoing MS storms. A somewhat stable air mass exists east of a batch of warm advection showers now forming over southwest AL, and this general zone may be as far east as the main severe risk gets tonight. As cells continue east across MS and approach the AL state line, additional watches may be considered. ..Jewell.. 11/21/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... LAT...LON 31389080 31788989 32128918 32448848 32428803 32258787 31668765 31318778 31048803 30738909 30669006 30669082 30809105 30979112 31139108 31389080Read more -
MD 2278 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 712... FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 2278 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0603 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2023 Areas affected...much of central Mississippi Concerning...Tornado Watch 712... Valid 210003Z - 210130Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 712 continues. SUMMARY...The risk for tornadoes appears highest over the next couple hours over south-central Mississippi. DISCUSSION...Large clusters of storms including supercells continue to rapidly move east into central MS, with the strongest supercell over southwest MS. This area has the most favorable environment for a strong tornado, with dewpoints rising to near 70 F, and 0-1 SRH > 200 m2/s2. Indeed, surface winds ahead of this particular supercell cluster remain backed with strong gusts, indicating increased pressure falls and potential strengthening with these storms. Gusting winds also indicate the boundary layer is favorably unstable, which will allow supercells to utilize the full low-level shear available. ..Jewell.. 11/21/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX... LAT...LON 31438870 31338887 31268922 31188991 31229120 31469133 31609109 31889061 32099029 32348996 32778974 32748916 32528885 32038860 31528860 31438870Read more -
MD 2277 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 711... FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 2277 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0523 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2023 Areas affected...portions of central and eastern Louisiana Concerning...Tornado Watch 711... Valid 202323Z - 210100Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 711 continues. SUMMARY...Ongoing severe storms will continue to pose a risk for a few tornadoes across WW711 this evening. DISCUSSION...Across parts of central LA, a band of convection has shown slow maturation with a couple of supercells becoming established from the broader convection over the last couple of hour. Ongoing within a moist, and unstable environment, conditions look favorable for these storms to maintain intensity this evening. Strong mid and upper-level shear will continue to favor organized storms including supercells and short line segments. While surface winds have veered slightly this afternoon, low-level hodographs remain long and supportive of strong low-level mesocyclones. Low-level shear should increase to the east beneath a southwesterly low-level jet. As storms mature they should remain capable of a few tornadoes and damaging gusts across central and eastern LA this evening. ..Lyons.. 11/20/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... LAT...LON 30269317 30289358 30389379 30809361 31389301 31829247 32069165 31999149 31689140 30769158 30599187 30309274 30269317Read more -
MD 2277 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 711... FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 2277 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0523 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2023 Areas affected...portions of central and eastern Louisiana Concerning...Tornado Watch 711... Valid 202323Z - 210100Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 711 continues. SUMMARY...Ongoing severe storms will continue to pose a risk for a few tornadoes across WW711 this evening. DISCUSSION...Across parts of central LA, a band of convection has shown slow maturation with a couple of supercells becoming established from the broader convection over the last couple of hour. Ongoing within a moist, and unstable environment, conditions look favorable for these storms to maintain intensity this evening. Strong mid and upper-level shear will continue to favor organized storms including supercells and short line segments. While surface winds have veered slightly this afternoon, low-level hodographs remain long and supportive of strong low-level mesocyclones. Low-level shear should increase to the east beneath a southwesterly low-level jet. As storms mature they should remain capable of a few tornadoes and damaging gusts across central and eastern LA this evening. ..Lyons.. 11/20/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... LAT...LON 30269317 30289358 30389379 30809361 31389301 31829247 32069165 31999149 31689140 30769158 30599187 30309274 30269317Read more -
MD 2276 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST MS...SOUTHEAST LA
Mesoscale Discussion 2276 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0314 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2023 Areas affected...Central/Southwest MS...Southeast LA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 202114Z - 202315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Threat for severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes, will continue eastward into central and southeast Mississippi and southeast Louisiana later this afternoon and evening. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms, including several supercells, continue to evolve eastward over southeast TX and LA, ahead of an approaching upper-level trough and associated cold front. Modest destabilization has occurred within the downstream air mass from west-central MS into southeast LA. This region is displaced north and east of the better low-level moisture over southwest LA, but a large area of mid to upper 60s dewpoints exists across south-central and southeast LA. This should continue to advect northeastward ahead of the approaching upper trough, contributing to further destabilization over the next few hours. Low-level flow is also expected to increase ahead of this upper trough, with the resulting combination of buoyancy and shear contributing to a continued threat for severe thunderstorms this evening. Given the strong shear, primary severe risk is tornadoes, a few of which could be strong, with some threat for damaging gusts and/or isolated hail as well. A watch will likely be needed within the next hour or two to address this severe potential. ..Mosier/Gleason.. 11/20/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX... LAT...LON 31989122 32789080 32969009 32868950 32648917 32308896 32018889 31728901 31068930 30578977 30379056 30429140 30809168 31989122Read more -
MD 2275 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS.
Mesoscale Discussion 2275 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2023 Areas affected...southeast Oklahoma and far northeast Texas. Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 202058Z - 202200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated large hail possible this afternoon across southeast Oklahoma and far northeast Texas. DISCUSSION...A pocket of destabilization has occurred near a surface low in southeast Oklahoma where temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s. Low-level convergence associated with this surface low, combined with cool temperatures aloft and and the aforementioned instability has provided an environment favorable for scattered storm development this afternoon. Very strong mid-upper level flow is supporting rotating updrafts. Therefore, a few of these cells may be capable of isolated large hail for the next few hours. This threat will persist for a few hours and wane after sunset with the loss of daytime heating. ..Bentley/Gleason.. 11/20/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 33679530 33869643 34069668 34209674 34659654 35029607 35109531 34849459 33939438 33639446 33599470 33679530Read more
SPC MD 2299
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Mesoscale Discussion 2299 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0938 PM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Areas affected...Southeast LA and coastal MS Concerning...Tornado Watch 713... Valid 020338Z - 020445Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 713 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for a tornadic supercell or two should increase over the next couple hours across southeast LA, including the New Orleans metro area. DISCUSSION...Long-lived convective cluster across south-central LA will likely continue east-northeast into the early morning hours across southeast LA and coastal MS. An embedded supercell has recently intensified over the Assumption Parish vicinity, and additional supercell development will be possible to the southwest of this storm amid strong mid to upper-level speed shear. Low-level hodographs are also in the process of enlarging, albeit from initially small curvature, and should continue to do so for the next several hours. Time-series of the TMSY wind profile confirms 0-3 km SRH has steadily held above 250 m2/s2 and a longer-lived supercell may evolve out of the Assumption Parish storm as it approaches the greater New Orleans/Lake Pontchartrain area through midnight. ..Grams.. 12/02/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...LCH... LAT...LON 29989107 30249038 30508962 30778897 30738857 30598830 30088845 30078864 29938889 29718943 29419036 29249078 29359127 29649153 29879142 29989107Read moreView the full article