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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...NM and TX... A shortwave trough will continue east across NM into northwest TX by early Friday. A persistent low-level warm theta-e advection regime in conjunction with mid-level DCVA/height falls ahead of the trough will support a nearly continuous swath of elevated convection, shifting east from NM and west TX into central TX by Thursday night. Elevated buoyancy will remain meager, suggesting that thunderstorm coverage will be sporadic. Guidance is consistent that the plume of steep mid-level lapse rates attendant to the trough on D2 will weaken early D3, inferring severe hail potential should be negligible. ...South FL... Rounds of lower-topped convection should continue within a persistent low-level northeasterly flow regime, namely along the southeast coast. Weak mid to upper-level lapse rates, slightly worse compared to D2, suggests instability will be marginal with low-end thunderstorm probabilities. ..Grams.. 12/12/2023
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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...NM and TX... A shortwave trough will continue east across NM into northwest TX by early Friday. A persistent low-level warm theta-e advection regime in conjunction with mid-level DCVA/height falls ahead of the trough will support a nearly continuous swath of elevated convection, shifting east from NM and west TX into central TX by Thursday night. Elevated buoyancy will remain meager, suggesting that thunderstorm coverage will be sporadic. Guidance is consistent that the plume of steep mid-level lapse rates attendant to the trough on D2 will weaken early D3, inferring severe hail potential should be negligible. ...South FL... Rounds of lower-topped convection should continue within a persistent low-level northeasterly flow regime, namely along the southeast coast. Weak mid to upper-level lapse rates, slightly worse compared to D2, suggests instability will be marginal with low-end thunderstorm probabilities. ..Grams.. 12/12/2023
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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...NM and TX... A shortwave trough will continue east across NM into northwest TX by early Friday. A persistent low-level warm theta-e advection regime in conjunction with mid-level DCVA/height falls ahead of the trough will support a nearly continuous swath of elevated convection, shifting east from NM and west TX into central TX by Thursday night. Elevated buoyancy will remain meager, suggesting that thunderstorm coverage will be sporadic. Guidance is consistent that the plume of steep mid-level lapse rates attendant to the trough on D2 will weaken early D3, inferring severe hail potential should be negligible. ...South FL... Rounds of lower-topped convection should continue within a persistent low-level northeasterly flow regime, namely along the southeast coast. Weak mid to upper-level lapse rates, slightly worse compared to D2, suggests instability will be marginal with low-end thunderstorm probabilities. ..Grams.. 12/12/2023
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A cutoff low in the lower Colorado River Valley will shift into the Four Corners and become more of an open wave on Wednesday. With a strong trough exiting the Northeast by the end of the period, surface high pressure will intensify in the East with some maintenance of high pressure within the Great Basin. Cool temperatures and light winds over the driest fuels will again preclude fire weather concerns for most of the CONUS. Offshore flow will continue across southern California, though a slow weakening trend will occur through the period. RH early in the day, when the winds will be strongest, will not likely fall below critical thresholds. A couple hours of elevated fire weather does appear possible by early/mid afternoon. Fuels have dried further at lower elevations. However, the limited spatial extent and short duration of these conditions should keep fire weather concerns localized. ..Wendt.. 12/12/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A cutoff low in the lower Colorado River Valley will shift into the Four Corners and become more of an open wave on Wednesday. With a strong trough exiting the Northeast by the end of the period, surface high pressure will intensify in the East with some maintenance of high pressure within the Great Basin. Cool temperatures and light winds over the driest fuels will again preclude fire weather concerns for most of the CONUS. Offshore flow will continue across southern California, though a slow weakening trend will occur through the period. RH early in the day, when the winds will be strongest, will not likely fall below critical thresholds. A couple hours of elevated fire weather does appear possible by early/mid afternoon. Fuels have dried further at lower elevations. However, the limited spatial extent and short duration of these conditions should keep fire weather concerns localized. ..Wendt.. 12/12/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will be the dominant feature across much of the CONUS today. Stronger upper-level winds will be relegated to the Upper Midwest and Northeast due to a strong cyclone in eastern Canada. Cooler temperatures and light winds over dry fuels will keep fire weather minimal for most areas. Some increase in offshore winds will be possible in southern California. RH recovery overnight will likely be enough to mitigate fire weather concerns as winds increase late tonight. ..Wendt.. 12/12/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast for Wednesday, but sub-severe hail will be possible over a portion of central to south New Mexico on Wednesday night. ...Southwest... A shortwave trough initially digging over the Lower CO Valley will pivot and drift east across AZ through the period. Downstream, a broad low-level warm theta-e advection regime will persist across NM and west TX as a modified airmass emanates north-northwest from the Lower Rio Grande Valley. Elevated buoyancy will remain scant to meager, likely supporting only sporadic to isolated thunderstorm coverage from northwest TX towards the Four Corners during the day. Convective coverage should increase Wednesday evening into the night as the cold-core region of the mid-level low shifts east, with an attendant corridor of steeper lapse rates overspreading the marginal moisture plume. Guidance has trended northward and slightly faster with the evolution of the mid-level jet curling into and through the base of the trough. This could yield a low-end supercell environment overnight across a portion of central to south NM. Potential for small to perhaps marginally severe hail should be focused on the meso-beta scale and given the rather marginal buoyancy environment, will refrain from a low-probability large hail highlight this cycle. ...South FL... Above-average agreement exists across guidance with the depiction of a stout 1040+ mb anticyclone drifting east from IL to the Upper OH Valley. This will influence persistent northeasterly low-level flow across south FL, with gradual moistening anticipated from the western Atlantic. Guidance has trended towards a more moist and weakly buoyant air mass during the period, with multiple rounds of showers and isolated thunderstorms expected. This should be most favored along the southeast part of the peninsula where boundary-layer speed convergence is largest. ..Grams.. 12/12/2023
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast for Wednesday, but sub-severe hail will be possible over a portion of central to south New Mexico on Wednesday night. ...Southwest... A shortwave trough initially digging over the Lower CO Valley will pivot and drift east across AZ through the period. Downstream, a broad low-level warm theta-e advection regime will persist across NM and west TX as a modified airmass emanates north-northwest from the Lower Rio Grande Valley. Elevated buoyancy will remain scant to meager, likely supporting only sporadic to isolated thunderstorm coverage from northwest TX towards the Four Corners during the day. Convective coverage should increase Wednesday evening into the night as the cold-core region of the mid-level low shifts east, with an attendant corridor of steeper lapse rates overspreading the marginal moisture plume. Guidance has trended northward and slightly faster with the evolution of the mid-level jet curling into and through the base of the trough. This could yield a low-end supercell environment overnight across a portion of central to south NM. Potential for small to perhaps marginally severe hail should be focused on the meso-beta scale and given the rather marginal buoyancy environment, will refrain from a low-probability large hail highlight this cycle. ...South FL... Above-average agreement exists across guidance with the depiction of a stout 1040+ mb anticyclone drifting east from IL to the Upper OH Valley. This will influence persistent northeasterly low-level flow across south FL, with gradual moistening anticipated from the western Atlantic. Guidance has trended towards a more moist and weakly buoyant air mass during the period, with multiple rounds of showers and isolated thunderstorms expected. This should be most favored along the southeast part of the peninsula where boundary-layer speed convergence is largest. ..Grams.. 12/12/2023
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated non-severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of west Texas and southeast New Mexico. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move across the Great Lakes region and Ohio Valley today, as a shortwave ridge moves into the southern and central High Plains. Further to the west, an upper-level trough will move into southern California. Southwesterly mid-level flow will be located from the Desert Southwest into the southern and central Rockies. In response, a 30 to 40 knot low-level jet is forecast to develop today in the southern High Plains. Isolated thunderstorm development will be possible this afternoon and evening in west Texas and southeast New Mexico, along the western and northern edge of the low-level jet, where lift will be maximized. This convection is not expected to become severe. Elsewhere across the continental U.S., thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. ..Broyles/Wendt.. 12/12/2023
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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0641 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected in the U.S. through tonight. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move eastward across the Northeast tonight, as west to northwest mid-level flow remains over much of the remainder of the U.S. At the surface, a large area of high pressure from the Ohio Valley southwestward into the lower Mississippi Valley will suppress moisture return. The relatively dry and cool airmass associated with the high will make thunderstorms unlikely through tonight. ..Broyles.. 12/12/2023
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z Fire weather potential remains low for the extended period. An expansive surface high will slowly become established over the central and eastern CONUS in the wake of the mid-level impulse and attendant surface front currently progressing across the Canadian Prairies and northern Plains. This unseasonably strong surface high will modulate winds for much of the country, resulting in low probability for winds exceeding critical thresholds. Weak winds, combined with increasing rain chances from the southern High Plains to the lower MS River Valley during the mid/late week period, will yield limited fire weather potential outside of the southern CA coast. ...Southern California... An offshore flow regime will likely persist D3/Wednesday into D4/Thursday along the southern CA coast as an upper disturbance exits the region to the east. However, medium to long-range guidance continues to suggest mid to upper-level winds will remain fairly modest on the back side of the upper trough. Consequently, offshore winds may be driven primarily by surface pressure gradients, which remain poorly resolved by most guidance at this range (considerable spread is noted in deterministic/ensemble solutions). Localized fire weather concerns remain possible, but confidence in critical conditions remains too low for highlights. ..Moore.. 12/11/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z Fire weather potential remains low for the extended period. An expansive surface high will slowly become established over the central and eastern CONUS in the wake of the mid-level impulse and attendant surface front currently progressing across the Canadian Prairies and northern Plains. This unseasonably strong surface high will modulate winds for much of the country, resulting in low probability for winds exceeding critical thresholds. Weak winds, combined with increasing rain chances from the southern High Plains to the lower MS River Valley during the mid/late week period, will yield limited fire weather potential outside of the southern CA coast. ...Southern California... An offshore flow regime will likely persist D3/Wednesday into D4/Thursday along the southern CA coast as an upper disturbance exits the region to the east. However, medium to long-range guidance continues to suggest mid to upper-level winds will remain fairly modest on the back side of the upper trough. Consequently, offshore winds may be driven primarily by surface pressure gradients, which remain poorly resolved by most guidance at this range (considerable spread is noted in deterministic/ensemble solutions). Localized fire weather concerns remain possible, but confidence in critical conditions remains too low for highlights. ..Moore.. 12/11/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected in the U.S. through tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes, see the previous discussion below. ..Dean.. 12/11/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough currently over the Lower Great Lakes vicinity will continue east-northeastward across the Northeast through the period, while a related cold front over the Gulf Stream advances further east into the Atlantic Ocean. Thunderstorms are confined to the cold front where sufficient buoyancy is present and will remain well offshore. Cool/stable post-frontal conditions will limit thunderstorm potential over the CONUS.
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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected in the U.S. through tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes, see the previous discussion below. ..Dean.. 12/11/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough currently over the Lower Great Lakes vicinity will continue east-northeastward across the Northeast through the period, while a related cold front over the Gulf Stream advances further east into the Atlantic Ocean. Thunderstorms are confined to the cold front where sufficient buoyancy is present and will remain well offshore. Cool/stable post-frontal conditions will limit thunderstorm potential over the CONUS.
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Frost Advisory issued December 11 at 2:03PM EST until December 12 at 8:00AM EST by NWS
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Freeze Warning issued December 11 at 2:03PM EST until December 12 at 8:00AM EST by NWS
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track; latest guidance continues to suggest low fire weather potential for Tuesday across most of the country. ..Moore.. 12/11/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1254 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level cyclone will be positioned across parts of the Northeast with a cutoff low developing in the Great Basin in a quasi-Rex Block pattern. Surface high pressure will continue to be the predominant feature over much of the CONUS. Fire weather concerns will likely remain minimal on Tuesday for most areas. Offshore pressure gradients in southern California will increase very late Tuesday into Wednesday morning. However, RH recovery overnight and only marginal increases in the wind should keep fire weather concerns low through the end of the period. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track; latest guidance continues to suggest low fire weather potential for Tuesday across most of the country. ..Moore.. 12/11/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1254 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level cyclone will be positioned across parts of the Northeast with a cutoff low developing in the Great Basin in a quasi-Rex Block pattern. Surface high pressure will continue to be the predominant feature over much of the CONUS. Fire weather concerns will likely remain minimal on Tuesday for most areas. Offshore pressure gradients in southern California will increase very late Tuesday into Wednesday morning. However, RH recovery overnight and only marginal increases in the wind should keep fire weather concerns low through the end of the period. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1059 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Generally dry and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm development across most of the CONUS on Tuesday. One possible exception will be across parts of eastern NM and west TX, where a modest increase in midlevel moisture is expected in advance of a developing mid/upper-level low over the Southwest. The increasing moisture will support the development of weak elevated buoyancy (MUCAPE of 100-300 J/kg) Tuesday evening into early Wednesday morning. While more favorable large-scale ascent will likely remain displaced to the west of this buoyancy through the end of the period, some development of elevated convection cannot be ruled out late Tuesday night across parts of eastern NM and/or west TX. Should this occur, sporadic lightning flashes will be possible, though confidence remains relatively low at this time. ..Dean.. 12/11/2023
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1059 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Generally dry and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm development across most of the CONUS on Tuesday. One possible exception will be across parts of eastern NM and west TX, where a modest increase in midlevel moisture is expected in advance of a developing mid/upper-level low over the Southwest. The increasing moisture will support the development of weak elevated buoyancy (MUCAPE of 100-300 J/kg) Tuesday evening into early Wednesday morning. While more favorable large-scale ascent will likely remain displaced to the west of this buoyancy through the end of the period, some development of elevated convection cannot be ruled out late Tuesday night across parts of eastern NM and/or west TX. Should this occur, sporadic lightning flashes will be possible, though confidence remains relatively low at this time. ..Dean.. 12/11/2023
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1059 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Generally dry and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm development across most of the CONUS on Tuesday. One possible exception will be across parts of eastern NM and west TX, where a modest increase in midlevel moisture is expected in advance of a developing mid/upper-level low over the Southwest. The increasing moisture will support the development of weak elevated buoyancy (MUCAPE of 100-300 J/kg) Tuesday evening into early Wednesday morning. While more favorable large-scale ascent will likely remain displaced to the west of this buoyancy through the end of the period, some development of elevated convection cannot be ruled out late Tuesday night across parts of eastern NM and/or west TX. Should this occur, sporadic lightning flashes will be possible, though confidence remains relatively low at this time. ..Dean.. 12/11/2023
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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected in the U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough currently over the Lower Great Lakes vicinity will continue east-northeastward across the Northeast through the period, while a related cold front over the Gulf Stream advances further east into the Atlantic Ocean. Thunderstorms are confined to the cold front where sufficient buoyancy is present and will remain well offshore. Cool/stable post-frontal conditions will limit thunderstorm potential over the CONUS. ..Weinman/Guyer.. 12/11/2023
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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected in the U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough currently over the Lower Great Lakes vicinity will continue east-northeastward across the Northeast through the period, while a related cold front over the Gulf Stream advances further east into the Atlantic Ocean. Thunderstorms are confined to the cold front where sufficient buoyancy is present and will remain well offshore. Cool/stable post-frontal conditions will limit thunderstorm potential over the CONUS. ..Weinman/Guyer.. 12/11/2023
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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected in the U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough currently over the Lower Great Lakes vicinity will continue east-northeastward across the Northeast through the period, while a related cold front over the Gulf Stream advances further east into the Atlantic Ocean. Thunderstorms are confined to the cold front where sufficient buoyancy is present and will remain well offshore. Cool/stable post-frontal conditions will limit thunderstorm potential over the CONUS. ..Weinman/Guyer.. 12/11/2023
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SPC Dec 12, 2023 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
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